Lecture by Governor Kugler on inflation dynamics and the Phillips curve - Federal Reserve Board

April 07, 2025 Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve Governor Adriana D. Kugler At Ec10b Principles of Economics Lecture, Department of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts Share Governor Adriana D. Kugler presents a lecture about inflation dynamics and the Phillips Curve to students in Harvard University's Ec10b Principles of Economics class on Monday, April 7, 2025. In the lecture she discusses how pandemic-era inflation came in a series of waves: food, core goods, core services and housing. She then talks about the Phillips curve as a model to capture inflation dynamics. Finally, Governor Kugler explores additional augmentations to the Phillips curve model that could help better explain the most recent inflation episode. Here are the slides from her presentation. Title slide Slide 1. Roadmap of Lecture Slide 2. A Bird’s Eye View of Inflation Slide 3. A Look at Inflation Data in the Long-Run Slide 4. Inflation Waves Slide 5. Waves in Inflation Components Slide 6. Food Inflation Slide 7. Core Goods Inflation Slide 8. Rotation to Goods Slide 9. Indexes of Shortages Slide 10. Core Services ex Housing Inflation Slide 11. Core Services ex. Housing Inflation and Wages Slide 12. Housing Services Inflation Slide 13. Housing Services Inflation and New Rents Slide 14. The Phillips Curve(s) Slide 15. Wage Phillips Curve Slide 16. Expectations Augmented Phillips Curve Slide 17. Some Empirical Results Slide 18. The Accelerationist Phillips Curve: 1960-1986 Slide 19. Baseline Model Slide 20. The Accelerationist Phillips Curve: 1987-2019 Slide 21. Inflation and Long-Run Inflation Expectations Slide 22. Baseline Phillips Curve: 1960-1986 Slide 23. Baseline Phillips Curve: 1987-2019 Slide 24. Update of Baseline Model Slide 25. Additional Empirical Results Slide 26. Dynamic Sim: Baseline Model Slide 27. Dynamic Sim: V/U Model Slide 28. Dynamic Sim: Shortage Model View speech charts and figures Accessible Version

Adriana D. Kugler (2025, April 6). Lecture by Governor Kugler on inflation dynamics and the Phillips curve - Federal Reserve Board. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_20250407_kugler

@misc{wtfs_speech_20250407_kugler,
  author = {Adriana D. Kugler},
  title = {Lecture by Governor Kugler on inflation dynamics and the Phillips curve - Federal Reserve Board},
  year = {2025},
  month = {Apr},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_20250407_kugler},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}