Speech

Jobs and Trade EuropeanEconomicsandFinancialCentre(EEFC)Conference London,England September6,2007 International trade has long been a divisive Perhapssensingarisingtideofdisapproval issue, both in the United States and in amongAmericans,theU.S.Congresshasresponded other countries around the world. While withanumberofmeasuresleaningtowardeco- many, including the vast majority of econ- nomicisolation.Initsfirstthreemonths,the110th omists, support free trade on the ground that it Congressintroducedmorethanadozenpieces oflegislationrestrictingtradewithChina improves an economy’s overall well-being, those (Aldonasetal.,2007).SinceAprilofthisyear, who disagree hold that it accomplishes precisely boththeHouseofRepresentativesandthe the opposite: On this opposing view, trade Senatehaveconvenednumeroushearingsto destroysjobsandlowerswages,especiallyamong examinetheeconomicimplicationsoftrade,espe- the most vulnerable members of society. On its ciallyasitrelatestoChina.1Congresshasalso face, the job destruction issue cannot be correct failedtorenewthepolicyoftradepromotion for the U.S. economy, which has clearly gener- authority,alsoknownasfast-trackauthority, atedjobstoreplacethoselostbecauseofimports. whichpermitsthepresidenttonegotiatetrade The U.S. economy is fully employed, with an agreementsthattheCongresscaneitherapprove unemployment rate below 5 percent. orreject,butnotamend.Thatauthorityexpired Recentevidencesuggeststhatthejobdestruc- onJuly1ofthisyear. tionviewisheldbyasubstantialnumberofpeo- Mypurposetodayistoreviewsomeofthe ple.ApolltakenattheendoflastyearbythePew ideassurroundingthedebateovertradeandthe ResearchCenterforthePeopleandthePress labormarketandprovideanevaluationinlight foundthat,amongAmericans,48percentbelieved oftherecentevidenceontheperformanceofthe thatfree-tradeagreementsledtojoblossesinthe U.S.economy. UnitedStates,whileonly12percentthoughtthat Beforeproceeding,Iwanttoemphasizethat free-tradeagreementscreatedjobs.Thepollalso theviewsIexpressherearemineanddonot foundthat44percentofrespondentsbelievethat necessarilyreflectofficialpositionsoftheFederal freetradelowerswagesforAmericanworkers, ReserveSystem.Ithankmycolleaguesatthe while11percentbelieveitraiseswages(Pew FederalReserveBankofSt.Louisfortheircom- ments,especiallyChristopherH.Wheeler, ResearchCenterforthePeopleandthePress, researchofficer,whoprovidedspecialassistance. 2006).AFinancialTimes-Harrispollreleasedin However,Iretainfullresponsibilityforerrors. Julyofthisyearfoundsimilaropinionsamong manyEuropeans.Morethan50percentofthose polledinGreatBritain,France,ItalyandSpain THEORETICAL BACKGROUND feltthatglobalizationhashadanegativeeffect ontheircountries.Lessthanathirdresponded Thebasicprincipleunderlyinginternational thatglobalizationhashadapositiveeffect. tradeisthis:Whencountriesspecializeinthe 1 TheU.S.Senateheldahearingentitled“Is‘FreeTrade’Working?”onApril18,2007and“U.S.TradeRelationswithChina”onJuly25,2007. TheHousehelda“HearingonLegislationRelatedtoTradewithChina”onAug.2,2007. 1 INTERNATIONALTRADEANDFINANCE productionofthegoodsandservicestheypro- outcomesoftradeliberalization,then,isawiden- duceparticularlywellandtradeforthosethey ingoftheearningsdistributioninthedeveloped producerelativelylessefficiently,allcountries world.Manyarerightlyconcernedaboutthis canbemadebetteroff,atleastinaggregate. possibility.Withinrecentdecades,boththe Interestingly,whilemostfindtheideaofcom- UnitedStatesandGreatBritainhaveseenthe parativeadvantageandgainsfromtradeobvious extentofinequalityintheirwagedistributions inthecaseofindividuals—weare,afterall,much increasesharply. betteroffspecializingandtradingthanwewould Formaltradetheorydoesnot,however, beifwehadtoproduceeverythingforourselves— positwhatsomanyintheworld’sdeveloped manyremainskepticaloftrade’sbenefitsfor economiesseemtobelieve:thattradeleadsto countries.Thisbasicprinciple,however,applies netjoblossesandloweraveragewages.Thiscon- tonationsjustasitdoestoindividualhouseholds cernhaslongbeenraisedwithimports,butithas asproducersandconsumers. beenmagnifiedbytheperceivedriseinrecent Consumersandworkersalsostandtogain yearsofoffshoreproduction,whichThomas fromtradethroughincreasedcompetition.Recent Friedmandescribeswithsomanycompelling researchhasdemonstratedthat,byincreasing anecdotesinhisrecentbook,TheWorldIsFlat. competitionamongproducers,tradeforcesan Someofthemostrecentconcerns,infact,hold economy’sinefficientfirmsoutofthemarket, thatthedevelopedworld’shigh-wagejobs,such thusspurringareallocationoflaborfromless- asthoseinbusinessservices,arenowatriskof productivetomore-productiveemployers beingshippedoverseas. (Bernardetal.,2007).Evidenceofthisproduc- AretradeandoffshoringdestroyingAmerican tivityeffectisalsoapparentincross-country jobsandreducingwagesintheUnitedStates? studiesthatfindthateconomicgrowthisstrongly Letmebeginwithabriefoverviewofthestateof tiedtoopennesstotrade(Edwards,1998). theU.S.labormarket. Tradetheoryalsoasserts,however,thatwithin anygivencountry,thegainsfromtrademaybe unevenlydistributed.Tobesure,thevastmajor- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ityofindividualsundoubtedlygainforthereasons U.S. LABOR MARKET Ihavejustdescribed.Yet,therewillbesome workerswhoexperiencelabormarketdisrup- Overall,mostindicatorssuggestthattheU.S. tionsastheirjobsareeliminatedduetorising labormarketisstrong.Followingaperiodof importsortheoffshoringofproductionfacilities. sluggishgrowthbetweenJune2000andAugust Theseindividualsclearlysuffer,andtheirlosses 2003,aperiodthatsawpayrollemploymentin intermsofjobopportunities,incomeandmorale theUnitedStatesfallbymorethan2million,the canbebothsubstantialandlong-lived. U.S.economyhassincecreated,onaverage, Fordeveloped,capital-abundantcountries 167,000netnewjobspermonth.Thisfigure liketheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom, translatesintoanaveragegrowthrateinthenum- standardtradetheorysuggeststhattradewith berofnon-farmjobsintheU.S.ofapproximately thedevelopingworldwillhaveitsgreatestnega- 1.6percentperyear,whichisnotsubstantially tiveeffectontheless-skilledbecausedeveloping differentfromtheaveragesustainedduringthe economiessuchasChinaandIndiaarerelatively secondhalfofthetwentiethcentury.Thecurrent abundantinthattypeoflabor.TheUnitedStates, unemploymentrateisbelow5percent,compared forexample,importslargequantitiesofapparel, toanaverageof6percentoverthepastquarter furnitureandtoysfromChina,whileexporting century. significantquantitiesofcivilianaircraftand Justlookingat2007,thenumbershavenot semi-conductors(U.S.CensusBureau,Foreign beenquiteasrobust,buttheyarefarfromslow. TradeStatistics).Oneofthepossiblelabormarket BetweenJanuaryandJulyofthisyear,theU.S. 2 JobsandTrade economyhasaveragedajobcreationrateof theU.S.labormarketandtheeconomyasa 132,000jobspermonth,orabout1.2percentat wholewereexpanding.Themiddleperiod,of anannualrate.Giventhattheunemployment course,reflectstherecessionandsluggishjob ratehashoveredaround4.5percentsinceJanuary, marketfollowingtherecession. andhasremainedbelow5percentformuchof Oneofthemostsalientfeaturesofthedata thelasttwoyears,theeconomyseemstobeoper- fromthesethreeperiodsisthestrongpositive atingnearfullemployment.Ratherthanbeinga associationbetweentherateofjobgrowthand signofaweakeningeconomy,therecentslow- therateofimportgrowth.Thehighestrateswere downintherateofjobcreationisalmostcertainly seenduringthelatterhalfofthe1990s,when relatedtoaslowingoflaborforcegrowthasthe employmentgrowthaveraged241,000jobsper baby-boomgenerationreachesretirementage. month,anannualrateof2.4percent,andthe Recentfiguresonearningsarealsopositive. realvalueofimportsofgoodsandservicesgrew Withinthelast12months,averagehourlyearn- atanaverageannualrateof10.4percent.Since ingsintheprivate,non-farmsectorhaveincreased Januaryof2004,thoserateshavebeensomewhat bynearly4percentinnominaltermsand1.7 slower,withthelabormarketcreating182,000 percentafteraccountingforinflation.Thisdevel- jobspermonthandimportsrisingatanaverage opmentisparticularlyencouragingfollowinga annualrateof7.2percent. four-yearperiodinwhichaveragerealhourly Comparethesefigureswiththosefromour compensationshowedessentiallynogrowth. periodofslowgrowth.Between2000and2003, theU.S.economylost5,000jobspermonth,on average,andimportsexpandedatanannualrate EVIDENCE ON TRADE AND JOB of4.4percent.Suchevidence,Icontend,provides littlesupporttothenotionthatrisingimports GROWTH havecomeattheexpenseofU.S.jobs. Theevidenceclearlypointstoalargelyfavor- Additionalevidence,basedonmoredetailed ablelabormarket.Giventhat,overthepastfour empiricalanalyses,demonstratesasimilarpoint. years,U.S.tradevolumeshavesteadilyincreased, A2004studybyMartinBailyandRobertLawrence withthesumofimportsandexportsrisingfrom findsthat,whiletheU.S.waslosingmanymanu- 24.7percentofGDPinthethirdquarterof2003 facturingjobsbetween2000and2003,theshare to29percentinthesecondquarterofthisyear, ofimportsinU.S.domesticspendingongoods thedatadonotsupporttheclaimthattradeis actuallydecreasedfrom31.8percentto31.4per- destroyingAmericanjobs.Moreprecisely,U.S. cent(BailyandLawrence,2004). employmentishigh,despitesignificantjob AstudybyeconomistsattheFederalReserve lossesinindustriesimpactedbyimports.Employ- BankofNewYorkfindsthatdataongrossjob mentsecurityishigh,eventhoughjobsecurity destructionshowlittleevidencethatrisingtrade inindustriesaffectedbyimportsisnot.Ina lowersU.S.employment.Althoughtherateof strongaggregatejobmarket,displacedworkers jobdestructionincreasedduringthe2001reces- soonfindnewjobs. sion,justasittypicallydoesduringeconomic Acasualreadingoftheevidenceindicates downturns,thatratehassincefallentolevels thatthebusinesscycleisfarmoreimportant belowthosesustainedduringtherapidlyexpand- thantradeindeterminingtherateatwhichthe inglabormarketofthe1990s(Groshenetal., U.S.labormarketisgainingorlosingjobs.To 2005). examinetrendsinbothinternationaltradeand Noneofthesefindingsisintendedtoimply U.S.employmentgrowthsince1995,consider thattradeandoffshoreproductionhavenothad threeperiods:(i)1995to1999,(ii)2000to2003, anynegativeinfluenceonU.S.employment.The and(iii)2004tothepresent.Thefirstandthird sameNewYorkFedstudyestimatesthat,over periodsaremeanttorepresenttimeswhenboth thepasttwodecades,joblossesfromtheincreas- 3 INTERNATIONALTRADEANDFINANCE inglynegativenetexportbalancemighthave Thatis,astradevolumeshaveincreased,have amountedtoasmuchas2.4percentoftotalU.S. weseenthedistributionofjobsshifttowardlower employmentintheyear2003,whenthelabor payingpositions?Ifwelookatsomerecentfigures marketwasnearitsmostrecentbottom(Groshen describingthegrowthofjobswithincertainindus- etal.,2005).Thisestimate,ofcourse,isbased triesandoccupationsintheUnitedStates,we purelyonasimplecalculationofhowmany findlittlesupportforthiscontention.Since2004, AmericanjobsarerepresentedbytheU.S.net thefastestgrowingbroadoccupationalcategory, exportbalanceingoodsandservices.Asthe bothinpercentagetermsaswellasabsolutenum- authorsofthatstudystress,lookingattheesti- berofjobs,wasbusinessandfinancialoperations, matedjoblossbyitselfdoesnotaccountforany whichincludesaccountants,auditorsandfinan- ofthelikelybenefitsoftrade,suchasimproved cialanalysts.Thisoccupationgrewbymorethan efficiencyandhigherrealincomesforU.S. 13percentbetweenMay2004and2006,adding workers,bothofwhichmayboostdomestic nearly700,000jobs.Sizablejobgainswerealso employment.Inspiteofthisomission,theirnum- registeredincomputerandmathematicalscience bersstillsuggestthattrade-relatedjobdestruction occupations;healthcarepractitioners;education isminorinthecontextofthetotalU.S.labor trainingandlibraryservice;life,physical,and market. socialsciences;andlegalservices,whichcollec- Somemaystillarguethatthebusinesscycle tivelyaddednearly1millionjobsoverthissame doesnotfullyaccountforthelossofmanufac- period.Medianhourlyearningsineachofthese turingemployment.Afterall,eventhoughU.S. occupationalgroupsexceedtheoverallU.S. employmenthasincreasedbynearly2million median.Evidently,inatimeofrisinginterna- overthepastyear,theeconomyhaslost175,000 tionaltrade,therehasbeenstrongemployment manufacturingjobs.Isitpossiblethattradeand growthattheupperendofthepayscale. offshoringhavecausedtheselosses? Certainlow-wagejobshavealsoshown ArecentpaperbytheeconomistEdLeamer growth.Thenumberofjobsinfoodpreparation, (Leamer,2007)suggeststhattheanswerislargely suchascooksandwaiters,aswellasthosein “no.”Toarriveatthisconclusion,Leamercom- sales,whichincludescashiersandotherretail pareschangesindomesticdemandforgoodsto establishmentemployees,expandedbymore thedomesticgrowthofproductivityandtherise than1.1millionbetween2004and2006.Median ofmanufacturingimportsinordertoexplain earningsinthesesectorsoftheAmericanecon- changesinU.S.manufacturingemployment.All omyarebelowthenationalmedian.Ofcourse, elseheldconstant,ariseindomesticdemand thegrowthofthesetypesofjobsmayberelated shouldincreaseemployment,whereasrising totheoverallstrengthoftheU.S.economy.Indeed, productivitygrowthandimportsshouldboth theextenttowhichretailestablishmentsand decreaseit.Between1970and2005,theproduc- restaurantsareabletoexpandtheirpayrolls tivityeffectondurablemanufacturingemploy- likelydependsdirectlyonoverallpersonal mentwasroughly11timeslargerthantheeffect incomegrowth.Oneofthereasonswehaveseen associatedwithrisingimports.Inthenon-durables growthinlow-wagesectors,then,maybethe sector,theratiowasevenlarger:Theestimated stronggrowthofjobsinhigh-wagesectors. productivityeffectonemploymentwas30times Datacoveringindustriesoverthepast12 thatoftheeffectfromtrade.Thelossofmanu- monthsdemonstrateasimilarpattern.Since facturingjobs,whichhasbeenoccurringinthe Julyoflastyear,theU.S.economyhasadded UnitedStatesfordecades,seemstohaveitsroots nearly1.9millionjobs,withthelargestgains inthegrowthofproductivityratherthaninthe comingintwohigh-wagesectors—education riseofimports. andhealthservices,andprofessionalandbusi- Isthereanyevidencethattradehasharmed nessservices—andonelow-wagesector—leisure U.S.workersbydestroyinghigh-payingjobs? andhospitality.Together,thesethreeindustries 4 JobsandTrade accountedfornearly70percentofthejobscreated Thisprocesshasbeenparticularlystriking overthe12monthsendingJuly2007. amongexporters.Althoughthevastmajorityof thefirmsengagedinexportactivityintheUnited Statestendtobesmallintermsoftotalemploy- EVIDENCE ON TRADE, ment,morethan70percentofthevalueofU.S. exportstotherestoftheworldisaccountedfor PRODUCTIVITY, AND WAGES byrelativelylargeventures,namelythosewith Whilejobgrowthisclearlyafundamental morethan500employees(U.S.CensusBureau, measureoflabor-marketperformance,many 2007).Theselargefirmstendtobecharacterized economistswouldunderscorethegrowthofpro- bysignificantcapitalintensityandhighlevelsof ductivityasanevenstrongergaugeofanecon- productivityandpayhigherwages,onaverage, omy’swell-being.Indeed,itislargelythrough thantheirsmallercounterparts.Thedominant productivitygrowth—theriseinthequantityof positionoftheselargeproducershasdeveloped outputproducedperunitofinputused—that overtimeasadirectresultofthereallocationof incomesandlivingstandardsimproveovertime. resourcesfromless-efficientorganizationsto Tradeturnsouttobeasignificantdriverof more-efficientones.Moreover,estimatessuggest productivitygrowth.Inpart,thisconnectionis thatthisprocesshasdeliveredenormousproduc- theresultofthefactthatdevelopednationslike tivitybenefitstotheU.S.economy.Arecent theUnitedStatesimportgoodsproducedbyrel- studyhasestimatedthatproductivereallocation mayaccountforasmuchas40percentofthe ativelylow-productivitysectors,suchasapparel, growthintotalfactorproductivityamongU.S. textilesandfurniture,andexportgoodsandserv- manufacturersduringthe1980sandearly1990s icesinrelativelyhigh-productivitysectors,includ- (BernardandJensen,2004). ingprofessionalandbusinessservicesandaircraft. Thispatternleadstoareallocationoflaborfrom low-tohigh-productivityworkasemployment POLICIES TO ADDRESS TRADE’S decreasesinindustriescomparativelydisadvan- tagedandexpandsinindustriescomparatively LOSERS advantaged.Evidenceofthisprocessisapparent Althoughtheirnumbersarerelativelysmall inboththeemploymenttrendsIhavealready comparedtothesizeoftheU.S.economy,many discussed,especiallythegrowthofprofessional workershavebeendisplacedbytrade.Estimates andbusinessserviceemployment,aswellasfrom suggestthat,between2000and2003,asmanyas researchonplant-leveldynamics.Arecentstudy 300,000servicejobs(Garner,2004)andanother hasshownthat,asindustriesintheUnitedStates 314,000manufacturingjobs(BailyandLawrence, haveseengreaterimportpenetrationfromless 2004)mayhavebeenlostduetotrade.These developedeconomies,producerswithinthose individuals,inmanyinstances,experiencesig- industriesaremorelikelytoswitchtothepro- nificantlosses.Studieshaveshown,forexample, ductionofmorecapital-intensiveproducts.That thatre-employmentratestendtobeloweramong is,theyexitlow-productivitysectorsandenter workersdisplacedbytradethanthosewhoare high-productivityones(Bernardetal.,2006). unemployedforotherreasons(Kletzer,2005). Thereallocationoflaborfromlow-tohigh- Studiesalsoshowthat,amongthosewhodo productivityfirmsalsotakesplacewithinindus- eventuallyfindnewjobs,abouttwo-thirdsearn tries.Thus,eventhoughrisingimportsmay lessontheirnewjobthanonthejobtheylost produceemploymentlosseswithinanindustry, (Kletzer,2005). sayprimaryorfabricatedmetals,workersinthat Ratherthanplacefurtherlimitationson sectortend,overtime,tobecomeconcentrated trade,whichwouldsurelyhampereconomic amongthemostproductiveproducers. growth,policymakersshouldmakesurethat 5 INTERNATIONALTRADEANDFINANCE workerswhoaredisplacedbytradereceivethe thosewhohavebeendisplacedby,say,techno- assistancetheyneedinordertofindnewwork. logicalchange.Improvingprogramsthathelpall TheUnitedStatesenacteditsTradeAdjustment displacedworkersmoveontonewjobsmay Assistanceprogramin1962toofferworkerswho helptopersuadeAmericansthatfreetradeis havebeendisplacedbytradebothincomeassis- worthwhile. tanceandtraininginanefforttohelpthemmake Iwouldalsoliketostresstwootherpolicies thetransitiontoanewlineofwork.Certain thatarecrucialtothewell-beingoftheAmerican workersmay,instead,optforAlternativeTrade laborforce.First,economiesmustcontinueto AdjustmentAssistance,whichprovideswage promoteeducationatalllevels,includingexpand- insuranceforworkerswhomoveontojobsthat ingopportunitiesforpost-secondaryeducation. paylessthanwhattheyhadreceivedbeforebeing Notonlyarehighlyeducatedindividualsbetter displaced.TheUnitedStatesalsohastwoaddi- preparedtosucceedinaninformationtechnology tionalprogramsaimedathelpingunemployed dominatedworkplace,theyalsoexperiencelower workersfindjobs:unemploymentinsurance(UI), whichprovidesincomesupport,andtheWork- ratesofjobdisplacement,shorterdurationsof forceInvestmentAct,whichhelpsworkerspay unemploymentandgreaterwagegrowthover fortraining. time(BureauofLaborStatistics).Second,policy- Suchprogramsarecertainlyconstructive, makersshouldcontinuetopursuemacroeconomic butmorecouldprobablybedonetoassistthose strategiesthatensurefullemploymentandprice whohavelostajob.TradeAdjustmentAssistance stability.Asmycommentsearlierhaveindicated, currentlycoversworkerswholosejobsdueto forcountriesliketheUnitedStatesandthe importsofgoods,butoffersnocoveragefor UnitedKingdom,theemploymentsituationis workersdisplacedbyimportsofservices.Given largelydeterminedbythestateofthedomestic thatthemajorityoftheAmericanworkforceis macroeconomy. employedinservices,andrecenttrendssuggest thatfuturetrade-relatedworkerdisplacements maycomeincreasinglyfromtheservicesector, CONCLUSION theprogramshouldprobablybeexpanded.There havealsobeencriticismsleveledattheoperation Duringthe1960sand1970s,manydevelop- oftheprogrambasedonitshighrateofdenial, ingnationsfearedthatopeningtheireconomies whichstandsatroughlyathirdofallapplicants, totradewiththemoredevelopedworldwould anditsrathermodestsizewhencomparedtothe makethemworseoff(Freeman,1995).Yet,by volumeoftradeinwhichtheU.S.isengaged liberalizingtheirtradepolicies,manydeveloping (Mastel,2006).In2004,forexample,thefederal economies,includingSouthKorea,Taiwanand governmentallocated1.3billiondollarstothe China,haveexperiencedlongperiodsofrapid program.Althoughlargeinanabsolutesense, economicgrowth(Krueger,2004). thisfigureissmallwhencomparedtothe$1.5 Withinrecentyears,asignificantanti-trade trillionofimportsand$23.6billioncollectedin sentimentseemstohaveemergedinthedevel- tariffrevenueinthatyear. opedworld.Aspolicymakers,itisincumbent Inaddition,asChairmanBernankenotedin uponustomaintainacommitmenttofreeand remarksthreeyearsago,theprogramiscon- opentrade,whilehelpingthosewhoexperience foundedbythedifficultyofidentifyingworkers whohavebeendisplacedbytradeasopposedto lossesfromitfindnewopportunities.Indoing someotherreason(Bernanke,2004).Itisalso so,wehopetoensurecontinuedincreasesinour notclearwhyworkerswhohavebeendisplaced standardoflivingandpersuadegreaternumbers bytradeshouldreceivegreaterassistancethan ofpeoplethattradecanbebeneficialforeveryone. 6 JobsandTrade REFERENCES Groshen,EricaL.;Hobijn,BartandMcConnell, MargaretM.“U.S.JobsGainedandLostthrough Aldonas,GrantD.;Lawrence,RobertZ.and Trade:ANetMeasure.”FederalReserveBankof Slaughter,MatthewJ.“SucceedingintheGlobal NewYorkCurrentIssuesinEconomicsand Economy:ANewPolicyAgendafortheAmerican Finance,2005,11(8),pp.1-7. Worker.”FinancialServicesForumPolicyResearch, 2007. Kletzer,LoriG.“GlobalizationandJobLoss,From ManufacturingtoServices.”FederalReserveBank Autor,DavidH.;Katz,LawrenceF.andKearney, ofChicagoEconomicPerspectives,SecondQuarter MelissaS.“TrendsinU.S.WageInequality:Re- 2005,pp.38-46. AssessingtheRevisionists.”NBERWorkingPaper 11627,2005. Krueger,AnneO.“Trade,Jobs,andGrowth:Why YouCan’tHaveOneWithouttheOther.”Presented Baily,MartinNeilandLawrence,RobertZ.“What atReutersTrade,GlobalizationandOutsourcing HappenedtotheGreatU.S.JobMachine?TheRole Conference,NewYork,June15,2004. ofTradeandElectronicOffshoring.”Brookings PapersonEconomicActivity,2004,2,pp.211-70. Leamer,Edward.“AFlatWorld,aLevelPlaying Field,aSmallWorldAfterAll,orNoneofthe Bernanke,BenS.“TradeandJobs.”Presentedatthe Above?AReviewofThomasL.Friedman’sThe DistinguishedSpeakerSeries,FuquaSchoolof WorldIsFlat.”JournalofEconomicLiterature, Business,DukeUniversity,Durham,NC,March30, 2007,45(1),pp.83-126. 2004. Mastel,Greg.“WhyWeShouldExpandTrade Bernard,AndrewB.;Jensen,J.Bradford;Redding, AdjustmentAssistance.”Challenge,2006,49(4), StephenJ.andSchott,PeterK.“Firmsin pp.42-57. InternationalTrade.”NBERWorkingPaper13054, 2007. PewResearchCenterforthePeopleandthePress. “FreeTradeAgreementsGetaMixedReview.” Edwards,Sebastian.“Openness,Productivity,and December19,2006. Growth:WhatDoWeReallyKnow?”Economic Journal,March1998,108,pp.383-98. Freeman,Richard.“AreYourWagesSetinBeijing?” JournalofEconomicPerspectives,1995,9(3), pp.15-32. 7

William Poole (2007, September 5). Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_20070906_poole

@misc{wtfs_speech_20070906_poole,
  author = {William Poole},
  title = {Speech},
  year = {2007},
  month = {Sep},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_20070906_poole},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}