speeches · November 14, 2002
Speech
William Poole · President
From Professor to Policymaker:
Emerging from the Shadow
WashingtonUniversityinSt.Louis
OlinSchoolofBusiness
St.Louis,Missouri
November15,2002
Iappreciate comments provided by my col- TheFederalReserveisanunusualorganiza-
leagues, especially Robert Rasche, Director tioninanumberofrespects.Onepeculiarityis
of Research, at the Federal Reserve Bank thatIcantakepositionsthatarenot100percent
of St. Louis. I take full responsibility for alignedwiththoseoftheFedChairman.During
errors. The views expressed are mine and do thelate1960sandearly1970s,St.LouisFed
not necessarily reflect official positions of the PresidentDarrylFranciswasinprettyopenrebel-
Federal Reserve System. lion,activelyandpubliclyopposingpolicyposi-
SincecomingtotheSt.LouisFedfouranda tionstakenbythetwoFedChairmanwhoserved
halfyearsago,anumberofpeoplehaveasked
whileFranciswaspresident.Moregenerally,
meabouthowthatmovehappenedandhowmy
membersoftheFederalOpenMarketCommittee
newcareerdirectionhasworkedout.Inthinking
can,andonoccasiondo,publiclydissentfromthe
aboutaspeechtopicfortoday,itstruckmethat
majorityposition,whichhasalwaysbeendefined
reflectingonmytransitionfromprofessorto
bythepositionoftheFedChairman.Ihastento
policymakermightfitespeciallywellinthecon-
addthatIfeelveryfortunatethatIamserving
textoftheExecutiveMBAprogramoftheOlin
underaFedChairmanIhaveknownandrespected
School.I’mcertainlynottheonlyonetohave
sincetheearly1970s,andwithwhomanydiffer-
madearight-anglechangeincareerdirection,
encesarethetypicalprofessionaldisagreements
andsomeofyoumayalreadyhavehadasimilar
overdetailsandnotoverfundamentals.
experience.
Still,canyouimagineanofficerofaprivate-
AlthoughI’llnothavemuchtosayinmy
sectorcompanypubliclydissentingfromadeci-
preparedremarksaboutcurrentmonetarypolicy,
siontakenbytheChairmanoftheboard?Standard
Iwouldnotbesurprisedifyouaskmeaboutthis
practiceistoargueyourcaseinternally,butdefi-
subjectwhenIfinishspeaking.So,Iwilloffer
nitelynotexternally,andthentofallinlinewith
thestandardFederalReservedisclaimer,thatI’m
whateverdecisiontheCEOmakes.Infact,the
speakingformyselfandthatmyviewsdonot
FederalReserveisnotfundamentallydifferentin
necessarilyrepresentofficialFederalReserve
thisrespect.Attheendoftheday,therecanbe
positions.
WhatIwanttodoistalkabitabouthowI onlyonemonetarypolicy;althoughImaydissent
gottoSt.Louis,howmyyearsasauniversity publicly,andbelieveIhaveanobligationtodis-
professorarerelevanttowhatIdonow,andthe sentifIfeelstronglyenough,Ialsohavethe
intellectualconnectionsbetweenmylifeaspro- responsibilitytosupportthemonetarypolicy
fessorandmylifeaspolicymaker.Iparticularly decisionsoftheFOMC.
wanttodiscussonespecificaspectofpolicymak- OnelessonIdrawfromtheseobservationsis
ing:theimportantroleofclearcommunication thatIhavebeenabletomakethiscareertransition
withthemarketsandgeneralpublic. successfully—atleastfrommyperspective—
1
MISCELLANEOUS
becauseIknewtheFederalReservequitewell I’vealsotakenagrowingroleinSystem-wide
beforeassumingmycurrentposition.Thatknowl- activitiesaffectingalltheReserveBanks.These
edgestemmedfrommyemploymentonthestaff totallynewareasformehavebeenchallenging
oftheBoardofGovernorsforfouryearsinthe andveryrewardingpersonallyasI’velearned
early1970s;ayearonthestaffof,andseveral theropesandhavebeenabletomakesomecon-
yearsconsultingfor,theBostonFed;andmy tributionsbeyondthesubjectmatterIknewpretty
researchonmonetarypolicyissuesasauniver- wellwhenIarrived.
sityprofessor.Moreover,andthisiswherethe WhenmypredecessorinformedtheSt.Louis
“shadow”referenceinmytitlecomesfrom,Iwas boardofdirectorsofhisintentiontoresign,the
amemberoftheShadowOpenMarketCommittee boardbeganthesearchprocessforanewpresi-
from1985tothetimeIcametoSt.Louisin1998. dent.Oneconsiderationwasthattheboard
TheSOMCisagroupofacademicandbusiness wanted,ifpossible,tofindamonetarypolicy
economiststhatmeetstwiceayeartodiscuss expertwhoseviewswereconsistentwiththe
macroeconomicpolicyissuesandtopresenttheir policytraditionoftheSt.LouisFed.Thattradition
conclusionstothepress.Consequently,through beganinthe1950s,whenHomerJonesbecame
myyearsofresearch,teaching,andmyinvolve- researchdirector.JonesbroughttheUniversity
mentwiththeSOMCandanumberofotherpro- ofChicagoschoolofmonetaryeconomicstothe
fessionalactivities,Iwasquitefamiliarwith Bank,andthoseviewslaterbecamethefocusof
monetarypolicyissuesandtheirhistory.Ifyou intensepolicydebate.WithintheFederalReserve,
aregoingtomakeacareerchange,youarewell DarrylFrancisledtheChicagoschoolsideofthe
advisedtoknowalotabouttheorganizationyou argument.
areabouttojoinandabouttheissuesyouare
abouttoface.
Evenso,IhadnoexperienceastheCEOofan
MY PROFESSORIAL LIFE
organizationaslargeastheSt.LouisFed,which
hasabout1,300employees.Twobriefstintsas Myprofessionaltrainingineconomicswas
economicsdepartmentchairmanatBrown attheUniversityofChicagointheearly1960s.
Universitydidlittletopreparemetoleadthe Atthattime,afterroughly30yearsofneglect,the
Bank.So,IhadalottolearnwhenIarrivedhere. subjectareasofmonetaryeconomicsandmone-
AnotherpeculiarityofaFederalReserve tarypolicybecamehighlycontroversial.Thedom-
Bankisthatthereisnorealunderstudyposition inantprofessionalparadigmthatemergedfrom
toprepareacandidatetobeBankpresident.As theGreatDepressionofthe1930swasbasedon
youknow,thereare12ReserveBanks;someof theworkofJohnMaynardKeynesinhisGeneral
thepresidentshaveextensivemanagerialexperi- Theoryandtheworkofeconomistswhofollowed
ence,eitherintheFederalReserveSystemorthe Keynesandfurtherdevelopedhisideas.
privatesector,andothershaveanextensivemone- Oneofthoseideaswasthatthefederalgovern-
tarypolicybackground,asIdid.Butnoonecomes mentcould,andshould,stabilizeshort-runfluc-
intothejobwiththefullrangeofexperience tuationsineconomicactivitythroughtheactive
acrossallthedifferentresponsibilitiesofaReserve applicationoffiscalpolicy—timelychangesin
Bankpresident.Iwasfortunatetoinheritastrong governmentspendingandtaxes.Governmentwas
seniorstafftoruntheoperatingsideoftheBank expectedtomoderate,andifyouwereanoptimist,
andthathaspermittedmetoconcentrateonmy eliminatethebusinesscycle.IntheUnitedStates,
comparativeadvantage,whichismonetarypolicy. thefederalgovernmentbecamecommittedto
Nevertheless,duringmyyearsinSt.Louis,I’ve suchapolicyobjectivebytheEmploymentAct
learnedalotaboutallthevariousresponsibili- of1946.
tiesoftheBankandhavebecomeincreasingly AsecondcentralKeynesianideawasthat
involvedinallaspectsoftheBank’soperations. monetarypolicywasirrelevantornearlyso.
2
FromProfessortoPolicymaker:EmergingfromtheShadow
Indeed,from1942untiltheFederalReserve– thatschool.PathbreakingworkatChicagowas
TreasuryAccordin1951,theFedwascommitted notconfinedtotheeconomicsdepartment.There
toapolicyofpeggingnominalinterestratesat wasexcitingresearchproceedingatthebusiness
lowlevelstominimizetheinterestcostsofthe schoolaswell—whatlatercametobecalledthe
largeFederaldebtaccumulatedduringWorld efficientmarketstheoryoffinancialmarkets.This
WarII.Inthisregime,theFedwasnothingmore workfitinnaturallywiththebroaderChicago
thanapricecontroller.After1951,theFedwas schooltraditionofrespectforcompetitivemarkets
relievedofitsnarrowmandate,buttheprincipal anddistrustofgovernmentintervention.Such
objectiveofmonetarypolicy—tokeepnominal interventionwasbasedontheincorrectviewthat
interestrateslowandstable—remained.TheFed’s marketsareoften,oreventypically,inefficientand
rolein,orresponsibilityfor,inflationwasnoton irrational.Agrowingbodyofempiricalresearch,
theradarscreeninmostpolicydiscussionsof muchofitfromChicago,demonstratedthatmar-
thelate1950sandearly1960s. ketswerenottheirrationalcasinosthatsomany
So,IcametograduatestudyatChicagoata thoughttheywere.Oneofmythesisadvisors
timewhenChicagoeconomists,especiallyMilton wasMertonMiller,whowontheNobelPrizein
Friedman,wereconductingafrontalassaulton Economicsin1990forhisworkinfinance.
whatwasthenmainstreammacroeconomics— Thesethemesfrommygraduateschooldays,
thereceivedKeynesianwisdom.Friedmanwas oftheimportanceofmonetarypolicyandrespect
involvedinanumberofresearchprojects,but fortheefficiencyofmarkets,motivatedmuchof
perhapsthemostimportantwashiswork,with myresearchandteachingduringmyyearsin
co-authorAnnaJ.Schwartz,onAMonetary academia.
HistoryoftheUnitedStates1867-1960.1This
monumentalstudywaspublishedin1963.The
bookcoveredalotofground,butperhapsthe
MY POLICYMAKER LIFE
singlemostimportanttopicconcernedthepropo-
sitionthatmonetarypolicymistakesturnedwhat BythetimeIarrivedattheSt.LouisFedin
mighthavebeenaminorrecessionintotheGreat 1998,thepolicyenvironmentwasremarkably
Depression.GiventheprevailingKeynesianwis- differentfromwhatithadbeeninthe1960sand
dom,thosewereindeedfightingwords. 1970s.AtleastthewayIseeit,mostoftheissues
Asagraduatestudent,Istudiedpapersjust monetaryeconomistsfoughtoverinthe1960s
publishedandpapersinprepublicationform hadbeenresolvedinfavorofpositionsespoused
presentedinresearchworkshops,especially byMiltonFriedmanandotherswholedthedevel-
Friedman’sMoneyWorkshop.Alongwithother opmentoftheChicagoapproachtomonetary
Chicagograduatestudents,Iwasaninside economics.
observerofthefrontiersofthemonetaryeconom- Asacademicviewschanged,soalsodidthe
icsdebate.In1976,Friedmanwasawardedthe viewsofcentralbanks.Iknowofnocentralbanker
NobelPrizeinEconomics,inpartforhisworkin todaywhodoesnotsubscribetoFriedman’sdic-
monetaryhistoryandtheory.Itisexcitingtome tumthat“sustainedinflationiseverywhereand
eventodaytolookbackonmyChicagoyearsand alwaysamonetaryphenomenon.”Centralbanks
realizethatIwasthereatsuchanimportant todayemphasizetheirresponsibilityforcontrol-
time. linginflation,andsomehavemadethatcommit-
AlthoughItooklotsofeconomicscourses mentclearbyadoptinganexplicitinflationtarget.
andwasamemberoftheMoneyWorkshop,my TheReserveBankofNewZealandprovedtobe
homebaseatChicagowasactuallythegraduate thepacesetterwhen,in1991inconcertwitha
schoolofbusinessandIreceivedmyPh.D.from Laborgovernment,itacceptedasinglepolicy
1 MiltonFriedmanandAnnaJ.Schwartz,AMonetaryHistoryoftheUnitedStates1867-1960,(Princeton,N.J.:PrincetonUniversityPress,1963).
3
MISCELLANEOUS
responsibility,namely,tohitaprespecifiedquan- theequationdescribingmonetarypolicyand
titativeinflationtarget.Sincethen,“inflation assumethatthemarketsknewwhatthatequation
targeting”hasbeenspecifiedasthepolicyobjec- was.
tiveforalargenumberofcentralbanks,including BeforecomingtoSt.Louis,Iknew,asdidother
theBankofCanada,theBankofEngland,the academics,thatnosuchmonetaryequation,or
SwedishRiksBank,andtheCentralBanksofChile monetaryrule,existed.ButIdidnotunderstand
andBrazilandtheBankofKorea,tonameafew. thefullimportofthisobservation.WhenIgot
Thereisanotheraspectofchangingcentral toSt.Louis,Iimmediatelybegantostruggleto
bankpracticethatismuchlesscompleteand explainmonetarypolicytoaudiencesthathad
muchlessunderstood—thegrowthofcentral invitedmetospeak.Ihadtofieldquestionsfrom
banktransparency.Aroundtheworld,central thepress.Moreover,Ibecameincreasinglyinter-
bankershavebeenabandoningtheirtraditional estedinthefactthatthefederalfundsfutures
preoccupationwithsecrecyinfavorofapolicy marketseemedtobeabletopredictFOMCpolicy
environmentwithtransparentobjectivesand decisionswithgreataccuracy.Thoseobservations
substantialdisclosureoftherationaleforpolicy encouragedmetothinkmoresystematicallyabout
actions.However,therearemanyunresolved communicationsissuesandtobegintoconduct
issuesinthisarea,andI’llnowtakeupsomeof researchinthisarea.Withanexcellentresearch
theseissues. staffattheBank,andfindingsomeinterestamong
oureconomistsinwhatIwasthinkingabout,we
begantouncoversomefascinatingevidenceon
TRANSPARENCY AND howtheprocessworks.WedevotedtheBank’s
annualresearchconferencetothissubjectin2001.
COMMUNICATION
Thetitleoftheconferencewas,“Gettingthe
Duringthe1970s,akeydevelopmentwas MarketsInSynchwithMonetaryPolicy”;the
theconstructionofrationalexpectationsmacro- Bankhaspublishedtheconferenceproceedings,
economicmodels.Researchonefficientmarkets whichareavailableinhardcopyandontheSt.
atChicagoandelsewhereandtheoreticalinsights LouisFedwebsite.
fromeconomistssuchasRobertLucas,whowon Letmegobeyondmysimpleanalogyofthe
theNobelPrizein1995forthiswork,madeclear brokenplayinfootballtodiscussjusthowimpor-
thatitwasimpossibletomodelthebehaviorof tantthistopicis.TheFOMC,ateachmeeting,sets
theprivatesectorwithoutincorporatingmarket atargetforthefederalfundsrate,whichisthe
expectationsaboutallrelevantinformation, overnightratebetweenbanksthatborroworlend
includingthecourseofmonetarypolicy.That fundsonatemporarybasis.Allotherinterest
meantthatasatisfactoryoutcomefortheeconomy ratesarelinkedtothefederalfundsratethrough
dependednotonlyonthecentralbankfollowing marketexpectations.Therateona1-month
asoundpolicybutalsoonthecentralbankmak- Treasurybilldependsonthemarket’sexpecta-
ingclearwhatthepolicywas.Otherwise,the tionsofthefederalfundsrateoverthenextmonth;
economymightsuffertheequivalentofabroken thelong-termmortgageratesimilarlydependson
playinfootball,wherethelinebelievesthequar- marketexpectationsoftheaverageone-dayrate
terbackiscallingoneplaywhenthebackfieldis overthelifeofthemortgage.Theseexpectations
runningadifferentplay.Ifmarketsbelievethe dependontheinteractionofmonetarypolicyand
centralbankispursuingadifferentpolicythan theeconomy—alltheinfluencesthatcombineto
itintends,boththemarketsandthecentralbank determineratesofinterest.Forjustoneexample
willprobablysuffernastysurprises. ofwhythismatterisimportant,considerthe
Academicmodelbuilderssolvedthisproblem mortgagerate,whichiscriticallyimportantforthe
byassumption.Tosolvearationalexpectations strengthofthehousingindustry.Thatratedoes
model,allthatwasnecessarywastowritedown dependinpartonexpectationsoffuturemonetary
4
FromProfessortoPolicymaker:EmergingfromtheShadow
policy.Thoseexpectationsdonotcomeoutofthin thatreal-timeTVdidnotchangethedebateIdo
air,butaredependentonhowtheFedconducts notthinkthatsuchdetailedknowledgewould
monetarypolicyandcommunicatesitsstrategy. helpmarketstopricesecuritiesmoreefficiently.
HowcantheFederalReservemosteffectively Theissue,Ithink,ishowtheFOMCcanbest
andaccuratelyconveytothemarketitsmonetary explainitspolicydecisions.Theexplanationis
policyexpectationsandplans?Thisisnotaneasy importantatanytime,butevenmoreimportant
question,formanyreasons.Policyinteractswith istheregularityofdecisionsovertime.Thatreg-
whatisgoingonintheeconomy,andwemust ularitydefinesapredictablepolicy.Creatingthat
talkaboutprobabilitiesratherthatcertainties. regularityandthemarket’sunderstandingofitis
Inputstoourthinkingincludehighlyabstract acrucialaspectoftheexplanationofeachindi-
economictheory,statisticaltheory,gutfeelings vidualpolicydecision.Policyregularityinturnis
aboutwhatisgoingon,andviewsabouthowbest whatpermitsthemarkettopredictdecisionsin
toreacttocontingenciesthatmayarise.Howdo advance,basedonthefundamentalsthatdrive
weconveythisknowledge,andourrecognition thedecisions.Infact,RobertRasche,research
ofitsincompleteness,tothemarketsandthe directorattheBank,andIexploredthisissue
generalpublic? fairlysystematicallyinapaperwepublishedin
Mythinkingontheseissuesisstillevolving. 2000.2
Tomymind,improvingourunderstandingofhow Considerthepolicystatementreleasedby
besttocommunicatewiththemarketsisapress- theFOMCattheconclusionofeachmeeting.
ingmonetarypolicyproblem,becauseincreasing Meetingminutes,speeches,andtestimonycon-
thestabilityoftheeconomyprobablydepends tainthesameprincipalelements,butobviously
onmakingprogressonthisfront.Letmeoffera atmuchgreaterlength.Thepolicystatementcon-
fewthoughts,withtheunderstandingthatthese tainsthepolicydecisionandseveralotherele-
arereflectionssubjecttodevelopmentandcer- ments.OneelementisinformationontheFed’s
tainlyreflectionsthatshouldnotinanywaybe viewofthecurrentstateoftheeconomy,itslikely
consideredofficialFederalReserveviews. futuredirectionandrisks.Obviously,thisinfor-
Ithinkitisveryimportanttoconcentrate mationishighlyrelevanttothejustificationfor
firstonclearcommunicationofpolicydecisions thepolicydecisiondeterminingtheintended
andtheirrationale,andnottoattempttoconvey federalfundsrate.
thefullrangeofdebateinrealtime.Foronething, Asecondelementisinformationonthelikely
internaldebatewillbestifledifpositionsand orpossiblefuturedirectionofpolicy.Howtodeal
thenamesofpersonsholdingthosepositionsare withthiselementisadifficultissue.Ordinarily,
releasedpromptlytothepressorpresentedlive itseemstome,iftheFOMCiscertainthatitwill
onC-SPAN.TelevisingFOMCmeetingswillnot wanttoadjustthefundsrateatitsnextmeeting,
disclosedebate,butchangeitandinterferewith thenitwouldbebetteradvisedtosimplymake
thefreeexchangeofideas.Moreover,wouldit theentireadjustmentatthemeetinginquestion.
reallyhelpmarketstobetterforecastpolicydirec- Itmakesnopracticaldifferencetotherateona
tionifeveryoneknewallthedetailsofaminority 10-yearTreasurybondwhetherthefederalfunds
positionheldbyonlyoneFOMCmember?Ifyou rateischangedby,say,25basispointsatapartic-
areinterestedinthissubject,Iwouldurgeyouto ularmeetingoratthenextmeetinginsixweeks.
readthepublishedtranscriptsofpastFOMCmeet- Usually,though,theintendedfederalfunds
ings,whichtheFedreleaseswithafive-yearlag. ratesetataparticularmeetingreflectstheFOMC’s
Thesetranscriptsserveanimportantfunctionin bestjudgmentastotheappropriaterategiven
promotingaccountabilityandprovidingarecord theinformationavailableatthemeeting,and
foreconomichistorians;however,evenassuming judgmentsaboutfuturechangesintherateare
2 “PerfectingtheMarket’sKnowledgeofMonetaryPolicy,”JournalofFinancialServicesResearch,18(December2000),pp.241-54.
5
MISCELLANEOUS
probabilistic.Weknowthatinformationthat andbelievethattheFed’sefforts,andeffortsby
changesthepicturemayarisebeforethenext severalnationaladministrations,todefuseinfla-
meeting.HowcanIconveytothemarketthatI tionarypsychologywerenotonlyunsuccessful
thinkthattheprobabilityofachangeatthenext butalsoharmfultothegovernment’scredibility.
meetingis0.5,or0.2,orwhatever?CantheFOMC Wecannotfixaneconomicproblembytalking
asacommittee,withmembersholdingdifferent peopleoutofit;wemustinsteadworktogetthe
assessmentsoftheprobabilities,cometoacom- fundamentalsright.Insomecases,thereisnoth-
monviewandconveyacommitteedecisionon ingthegovernment,ortheFed,candoabouta
thisissue?Clearly,Iamskepticalthatthisisa problemintheshortrunexceptwaitpatientlyfor
productiveavenueofcommunication.Frankly, theproblemtoberesolvedbymarketprocesses.
whenIfirstcametotheFedin1998andtheFOMC Ifthepolicyfundamentalsarerightandwe
wasusingthepolicy“bias”or“tilt”languagein arerightinourlonger-runassessmentsofhow
itspolicystatement,Ithoughtthatthelanguage theeconomywillperform,theninduetimethe
couldserveausefulpurpose.ThemoreIhave datawillsupportusandpublicviewswillchange.
reflectedontheproblemofclearcommunication Itcanbepainfultogomonthaftermonthwith
ofpolicyintention,themoreskepticalIhave publicpsychologyseeminglyatoddswitheco-
becomethatsuchcommunicationcanbehelpful. nomicreality,andasIreflectonlivingthrough
WhatIthinkisquiteclear,andmoreimpor- severalsuchperiodsIknowthattheapparent
tanttoexplainingthepolicyprocesstothemar- disconnectbetweenfundamentalsandpsychology
kets,isthatwhatevermaybeourassessmentof makesmequestionmyownassessments.My
probabilitiesoffutureaction,newinformation strategyinsuchsituationsistokeepsearchingto
maydriveachangeinthatassessment.Themar- seehowpiecesofevidencefittogether,and
ketsshouldnotbelievethatwewillfailtoacton whethertheycontinuetoconfirmmybeliefsor
newinformationjustbecausepreviousinforma- leadmetochangemybeliefs.IdothebestIcan
tionhadledusinadifferentdirection. toexplainmybeliefs,buttrynottochangepublic
Theproblemistoexplainwhatsortofnew psychologytobemoreoptimisticthanImyself
informationdrivessuchreassessments.IwishI feel.ThatisthepointI’memphasizing—that
couldsaymorethan“IknowitwhenIseeit.” effortstochangepsychologytomanufacturea
Thatisnotasatisfactoryresponse,buttodateI happyoutcomeare,Ithink,rarelysuccessful.
donotknowhowtoformalizethisprocess.If Onefinalpoint.Analystsreadbetweenthe
someonedid,wecouldwritedownapolicyrule linesofwhatIwrite.Iwriteknowingthatanalysts
linkingpolicyactionstoobservabledata.But readbetweenthelines.AnalystsknowthatIknow
thatisexactlywhatwecannotdoatpresent. theyarereadingbetweenthelinesandwrite
Athirdelementinthepolicystatementmay accordingly.Giventhisinfiniteregress,Iactually
involve—andIemphasize“may”—aneffortto trytowriteasplainlyandsimplyanddirectlyas
shapepublicperceptionsofthestateoftheecon- Iknowhow.Itrynottowriteusingcodewords,
omy,toencourageasenseofgreateroptimism, orwordssubjecttomisinterpretationbecausethe
orsuggestaneedforgreatercaution. usageofawordineconomicsdiscoursediffers
Iemphasize“may”withregardtoaneffortto fromordinaryEnglishusage.Ithinkthecauseof
shapepublicpsychologybecausemyviewisthat clearcommunicationisservedbycarefulwriting
effortsinthisdirectionthatdonotaccordwiththe andbyaccumulationoftrustovertimebetween
Fed’sownviewaboutthesituationareunlikely writersandreaders.I’vecometoknowahandful
tobesuccessful.Ifapolicystatementexudes ofjournalistswhofollowmyspeeches;frommy
optimism,andnewdataarrivingoversubsequent perspective,Ibelievethatmycommunication
weeksthensuggestthattheoptimismwasunwar- throughthemiseffectiveinthesensethatthey
ranted,anypsychologicaleffectwillbeshort- accuratelyreportwhatIsayandconveythe
lived.Ifollowedeventsprettycloselyinthe1970s, intentofwhatIamsayinginreportsthatare
6
FromProfessortoPolicymaker:EmergingfromtheShadow
necessarilymuchshorterthanmyspeeches.
Ihavenodoubtthatmyyearsofteaching
andwritinghavehelpedmetocommunicate
effectivelyinthissense.Thus,althoughIsaidat
theoutsetofmyremarkstodaythatmycareer
hastakenaright-angleturn,infact,thereisfar
morecontinuityinwhatIdonowwithmypro-
fessoryearsthanmightappearatfirstglance.
I’llfinishbysayingthatIfindmyjobnonstop
fascinating,challenging,andneverboringor
tiresome.I’vebeensuccessfulinfollowingthe
adviceIalwaysgavetomystudents—findajob
wheresomeonewillpayyoutodosomething
youreallylove.
7
Cite this document
APA
William Poole (2002, November 14). Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_20021115_poole
BibTeX
@misc{wtfs_speech_20021115_poole,
author = {William Poole},
title = {Speech},
year = {2002},
month = {Nov},
howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_20021115_poole},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}