speeches · October 16, 1979
Speech
G. William Miller · Governor
Department of theTREASURY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 566-2041
I.
FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY
EXPECTED AT 11:00 A.M.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 1979
TESTIMONY OF THE HONORABLE G. WILLIAM MILLER
SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY
BEFORE THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
Mr. Chairman and Members of this distinguished Committee:
Thank you for this opportunity to appear before the whole
Committee. The primary focus of this hearing is on Federal
Reserve monetary policy, its contribution to the fight against
inflation and to the maintenance of exchange market stability.
Chairman Volcker will comment in detail on monetary policy. I
will briefly outline the major elements of our comprehensive
strategy to deal with inflation, in which monetary policy plays a
critical role.
High and persistent inflation has become deeply embedded in
our economic structure and is a clear and present danger to our
national well-being. It reduces real incomes and values; it
inhibits job creating investment and threatens our ability to
provide employment opportunities; it impedes productivity; it
breeds recession; and it bears most heavily on those least able
to afford it.
Containment of inflation is fundamental to restoration of
sound economic growth. It is our top priority.
The causes of inflation are many, and the war against
inflation must be dealt with on a broad front. We have a
comprehensive, integrated strategy. All economic policies are
being directed toward a total war against inflation.
First, the Administration is pursuing a disciplined fiscal
policy. We are determined to reverse the trend of expanding
federal deficits and expanding federal claims on the national
economy. Progress has been made, both in reducing the deficit
and in reducing the relative role of federal expenditures in the
economy. We intend to make further progress. The net result
over time will be to reduce the demands of the federal government
on the economy and to release substantial resources to the
private sector.
M-129
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-2-
Monetary policy represents the second major weapon in the
attack on inflation. The objective is to reduce progressively
the rate of growth of money and credit in order to starve out
inflation. Again, progress has been made. But in recent
months monetary growth has accelerated. Earlier this month, the
Federal Reserve announced a series of forceful actions that
should serve to contain growth in the monetary aggregates and
dampen inflationary pressures. These steps were needed and
appropriate.
Third, fiscal and monetary restraints are being supplemented
by the voluntary program to moderate pay and price increases.
Widespread cooperation during the first year brought smaller
price and pay increases than would otherwise have been recorded.
We are providing for greater participation by management and
labor in establishing and applying pay standards during the
second year, which should help avoid inequities that could
otherwise develop over time. A broadly representative pay
committee, to be chaired by John Dunlop, will have as its first
task the development of pay standards for the period ahead. The
Administration has developed a National Accord with labor
leadership in support of the war against inflation, and providing
for labor involvement in the pay-price program.
Fourth is energy. The ten-fold increase in world oil prices
has been a principal contributor to the acceleration of inflation
during this decade. Constraints on energy supply pose important
questions about the prospects for real economic progress
worldwide.
To win the war against inflation, it is essential that we
reduce our dependence on imported oil and that we reduce our
dependence on oil itself as a source of energy.
For 2-1/2 years, President Carter has sought support for a
broad and comprehensive program to achieve these objectives. The
diversity of individual circumstances and interests in our vast
country has made it exceedingly difficult to hammer out a
national energy program. Some important parts of the program
have already been put into place. The President has recently
taken two major steps—on decontrol of domestic crude prices and
on limiting oil imports—under his own powers and his own
initiative. Remaining critical elements are now under active
review by the Congress.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-3-
The priorities for our energy program are clear. We must
conserve. We must increase the development and use of
conventional domestic energy sources. We must increase the use
of renewable energy sources. And we must rigorously develop
unconditional domestic energy sources. Fully in place, our
national energy program is expected to cut oil imports by about
50 percent—4 to 5 million barrels per day—from present levels
and by about 8 to 9 million barrels per day from levels that
would have been reached without a comprehensive energy plan.
Also of major importance for the longer run, we are
attacking unnecessary cost-raising government regulation. Much
has been done to reduce regulatory barriers to efficiency and
competition, and to reduce the administrative burdens on business
in complying with excessive regulation. But much regulation is
founded in statute. Administratively, we can clarify and
simplify. But we will frequently need legislation to achieve
real reductions in burden.
These domestic policies--our efforts to wring out inflation,
secure sufficient independence and restore efficiency and
vitality to the U.S. economy--are also the policies needed to
assure a strong external position, a sound and stable dollar.
Indeed, maintenance of exchange market stability is essential
in the fight against inflation and forms an important part of our
comprehensive attack on inflation.
Despite the massive buildup in our oil import bill, the
effort to strengthen the United States balance of payments has
made significant progress. In 1978, the U.S. current account was
in deficit by $14 billion. This year, even though the recent oil
price increases are imposing a $16 billion rise in the cost of
our imports, we anticipate a deficit of only a few billion
dollars. Next year the U.S. current account will be in
substantial surplus. This major positive shift in our balance of
payments — together with our concerted attack on
inflation—provide the fundamental basis for dollar strength and
stability.
Action on the fundamentals is being supplemented forcefully
with action to deal with unwarranted exchange market pressures.
The Committee is familiar with the program announced last
November 1, nearly a year ago. Since that time, the dollar has
strengthened by over 6-1/2 percent against other currencies used
in our trade, and by nearly 10 percent from the viewpoint of the
oil exporting nations in relation to the other major currencies
they use to purchase their imports.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-4-
We are not, of course, interested only in averages. We are
concerned about the dollar's value in terms of major individual
currencies. The dollar is now about 30 percent higher against
the Japanese yen than it was a year ago, reflecting in part the
dramatic—and welcome-moderation of the large Japanese balance
of payments surplus. But the dollar has also been somewhat lower
in relation to the German mark at times since mid-June, and this
movement has attracted market interest and speculative pressure.
We have therefore given this situation special attention in our
exchange market operations, and have consulted closely with
German officials at the highest levels to assure that our joint
techniques and resources are adequate and effective.
We are determined to maintain a sound and stable dollar.
This is in the interests of our own domestic economic stability,
and consonant with our broader world interests and
responsibilities. Our basic economic policies are headed in a
direction that will ensure that result. Our external position is
strengthening sharply. And cooperative arrangements with other
major countries are in place to deal with unwarranted exchange
market pressures.
In sum, we are pursuing a comprehensive strategy to deal
with U.S. economic problems, internal and external. Inflation is
central to all aspects of those problems. Our domestic and
international objectives are closely related by the overriding
importance of controlling the inflationary pressures affecting
our economy.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
DeportmentoftheTREASURY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 566-2041
FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY
EXPECTED AT 11:00 A.M.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 1979
TESTIMONY OF THE HONORABLE G. WILLIAM MILLER
SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY
BEFORE THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
Mr. Chairman and Members of this distinguished Committee:
Thank you for this opportunity to appear before the whole
Committee. The primary focus of this hearing is on Federal
Reserve monetary policy, its contribution to the fight against
inflation and to the maintenance of exchange market stability.
Chairman Volcker will comment in detail on monetary policy. I
will briefly outline the major elements of our comprehensive
strategy to deal with inflation, in which monetary policy plays a
critical role.
High and persistent inflation has become deeply embedded in
our economic structure and is a clear and present danger to our
national well-being. It reduces real incomes and values; it
inhibits job creating investment and threatens our ability to
provide employment opportunities; it impedes productivity; it
breeds recession; and it bears most heavily on those least able
to afford it.
Containment of inflation is fundamental to restoration of
sound economic growth. It is our top priority.
The causes of inflation are many, and the war against
inflation must be dealt with on a broad front. We have a
comprehensive, integrated strategy. All economic policies are
being directed toward a total war against inflation.
First, the Administration is pursuing a disciplined fiscal
policy. We are determined to reverse the trend of expanding
federal deficits and expanding federal claims on the national
economy. Progress has been made, both in reducing the deficit
and in reducing the relative role of federal expenditures in the
economy. We intend to make further progress. The net result
over time will be to reduce the demands of the federal government
on the economy and to release substantial resources to the
private sector.
M-129
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-2-
Monetary policy represents the second major weapon in the
attack on inflation. The objective is to reduce progressively
the rate of growth of money and credit in order to starve out
inflation. Again, progress has been made. But in recent
months monetary growth has accelerated. Earlier this month, the
Federal Reserve announced a series of forceful actions that
should serve to contain growth in the monetary aggregates and
dampen inflationary pressures. These steps were needed and
appropr iate.
Third, fiscal and monetary restraints are being supplemented
by the voluntary program to moderate pay and price increases.
Widespread cooperation during the first year brought smaller
price and pay increases than would otherwise have been recorded.
We are providing for greater participation by management and
labor in establishing and applying pay standards during the
second year, which should help avoid inequities that could
otherwise develop over time. A broadly representative pay
committee, to be chaired by John Dunlop, will have as its first
task the development of pay standards for the period ahead. The
Administration has developed a National Accord with labor
leadership in support of the war against inflation, and providing
for labor involvement in the pay-price program.
Fourth is energy. The ten-fold increase in world oil prices
has been a principal contributor to the acceleration of inflation
during this decade. Constraints on energy supply pose important
questions about the prospects for real economic progress
worldwide.
To win the war against inflation, it is essential that we
reduce our dependence on imported oil and that we reduce our
dependence on oil itself as a source of energy.
For 2-1/2 years, President Carter has sought support for a
broad and comprehensive program to achieve these objectives. The
diversity of individual circumstances and interests in our vast
country has made it exceedingly difficult to hammer out a
national energy program. Some important parts of the program
have already been put into place. The President has recently
taken two major steps—on decontrol of domestic crude prices and
on limiting oil imports—under his own powers and his own
initiative. Remaining critical elements are now under active
review by the Congress.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-3-
The priorities for our energy program are clear. We must
conserve. We must increase the development and use of
conventional domestic energy sources. We must increase the use
of renewable energy sources. And we must rigorously develop
unconditional domestic energy sources. Fully in place, our
national energy program is expected to cut oil imports by about
50 percent — 4 to 5 million barrels per day—from present levels
and by about 8 to 9 million barrels per day from levels that
would have been reached without a comprehensive energy plan.
Also of major importance for the longer run, we are
attacking unnecessary cost-raising government regulation. Much
has been done to reduce regulatory barriers to efficiency and
competition, and to reduce the administrative burdens on business
in complying with excessive regulation. But much regulation is
founded in statute. Administratively, we can clarify and
simplify. But we will frequently need legislation to achieve
real reductions in burden.
These domestic policies—our efforts to wring out inflation,
secure sufficient independence and restore efficiency and
vitality to the U.S. economy—are also the policies needed to
assure a strong external position, a sound and stable dollar.
Indeed, maintenance of exchange market stability is essential
in the fight against inflation and forms an important part of our
comprehensive attack on inflation.
Despite the massive buildup in our oil import bill, the
effort to strengthen the United States balance of payments has
made significant progress. In 1978, the U.S. current account was
in deficit by $14 billion. This year, even though the recent oil
price increases are imposing a $16 billion rise in the cost of
our imports, we anticipate a deficit of only a few billion
dollars. Next year the U.S. current account will be in
substantial surplus. This major positive shift in our balance of
payments—together with our concerted attack on
inflation—provide the fundamental basis for dollar strength and
stability.
Action on the fundamentals is being supplemented forcefully
with action to deal with unwarranted exchange market pressures.
The Committee is familiar with the program announced last
November 1, nearly a year ago. Since that time, the dollar has
strengthened by over 6-1/2 percent against other currencies used
in our trade, and by nearly 10 percent from the viewpoint of the
oil exporting nations in relation to the other major currencies
they use to purchase their imports.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-4-
We are not, of course, interested only in averages. We are
concerned about the dollar's value in terms of major individual
currencies. The dollar is now about 30 percent higher against
the Japanese yen than it was a year ago, reflecting in part the
dramatic—and welcome--moderation of the large Japanese balance
of payments surplus. But the dollar has also been somewhat lower
in relation to the German mark at times since mid-June, and this
movement has attracted market interest and speculative pressure.
We have therefore given this situation special attention in our
exchange market operations, and have consulted closely with
German officials at the highest levels to assure that our joint
techniques and resources are adequate and effective.
We are determined to maintain a sound and stable dollar.
This is in the interests of our own domestic economic stability,
and consonant with our broader world interests and
responsibilities. Our basic economic policies are headed in a
direction that will ensure that result. Our external position is
strengthening sharply. And cooperative arrangements with other
major countries are in place to deal with unwarranted exchange
market pressures.
In sum, we are pursuing a comprehensive strategy to deal
with U.S. economic problems, internal and external. Inflation is
central to all aspects of those problems. Our domestic and
international objectives are closely related by the overriding
importance of controlling the inflationary pressures affecting
our economy.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
DtpartmentoftheTREASURY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 566-2041
FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY
EXPECTED AT 11:00 A.M.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 1979
TESTIMONY OF THE HONORABLE G. WILLIAM MILLER
SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY
BEFORE THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
Mr. Chairman and Members of this distinguished Committee:
Thank you for this opportunity to appear before the whole
Committee. The primary focus of this hearing is on Federal
Reserve monetary policy, its contribution to the fight against
inflation and to the maintenance of exchange market stability.
Chairman Volcker will comment in detail on monetary policy. I
will briefly outline the major elements of our comprehensive
strategy to deal with inflation, in which monetary policy plays a
critical role.
High and persistent inflation has become deeply embedded in
our economic structure and is a clear and present danger to our
national well-being. It reduces real incomes and values; it
inhibits job creating investment and threatens our ability to
provide employment opportunities; it impedes productivity; it
breeds recession; and it bears most heavily on those least able
to afford it.
Containment of inflation is fundamental to restoration of
sound economic growth. It is our top priority.
The causes of inflation are many, and the war against
inflation must be dealt with on a broad front. We have a
comprehensive, integrated strategy. All economic policies are
being directed toward a total war against inflation.
First, the Administration is pursuing a disciplined fiscal
policy. We are determined to reverse the trend of expanding
federal deficits and expanding federal claims on the national
economy. Progress has been made, both in reducing the deficit
and in reducing the relative role of federal expenditures in the
economy. We intend to make further progress. The net result
over time will be to reduce the demands of the federal government
on the economy and to release substantial resources to the
private sector.
M-129
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-2-
Monetary policy represents the second major weapon in the
attack on inflation. The objective is to reduce progressively
the rate of growth of money and credit in order to starve out
inflation. Again, progress has been made. But in recent
months monetary growth has accelerated. Earlier this month, the
Federal Reserve announced a series of forceful actions that
should serve to contain growth in the monetary aggregates and
dampen inflationary pressures. These steps were needed and
appropr iate.
Third, fiscal and monetary restraints are being supplemented
by the voluntary program to moderate pay and price increases.
Widespread cooperation during the first year brought smaller
price and pay increases than would otherwise have been recorded.
We are providing for greater participation by management and
labor in establishing and applying pay standards during the
second year, which should help avoid inequities that could
otherwise develop over time. A broadly representative pay
committee, to be chaired by John Dunlop, will have as its first
task the development of pay standards for the period ahead. The
Administration has developed a National Accord with labor
leadership in support of the war against inflation, and providing
for labor involvement in the pay-price program.
Fourth is energy. The ten-fold increase in world oil prices
has been a principal contributor to the acceleration of inflation
during this decade. Constraints on energy supply pose important
questions about the prospects for real economic progress
worldwide.
To win the war against inflation, it is essential that we
reduce our dependence on imported oil and that we reduce our
dependence on oil itself as a source of energy.
For 2-1/2 years, President Carter has sought support for a
broad and comprehensive program to achieve these objectives. The
diversity of individual circumstances and interests in our vast
country has made it exceedingly difficult to hammer out a
national energy program. Some important parts of the program
have already been put into place. The President has recently
taken two major steps—on decontrol of domestic crude prices and
on limiting oil imports—under his own powers and his own
initiative. Remaining critical elements are now under active
review by the Congress.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-3-
The priorities for our energy program are clear. We must
conserve. We must increase the development and use of
conventional domestic energy sources. We must increase the use
of renewable energy sources. And we must rigorously develop
unconditional domestic energy sources. Fully in place, our
national energy program is expected to cut oil imports by about
50 percent—4 to 5 million barrels per day—from present levels
and by about 8 to 9 million barrels per day from levels that
would have been reached without a comprehensive energy plan.
Also of major importance for the longer run, we are
attacking unnecessary cost-raising government regulation. Much
has been done to reduce regulatory barriers to efficiency and
competition, and to reduce the administrative burdens on business
in complying with excessive regulation. But much regulation is
founded in statute. Administratively, we can clarify and
simplify. But we will frequently need legislation to achieve
real reductions in burden.
These domestic policies—our efforts to wring out inflation,
secure sufficient independence and restore efficiency and
vitality to the U.S. economy--are also the policies needed to
assure a strong external position, a sound and stable dollar.
Indeed, maintenance of exchange market stability is essential
in the fight against inflation and forms an important part of our
comprehensive attack on inflation.
Despite the massive buildup in our oil import bill, the
effort to strengthen the United States balance of payments has
made significant progress. In 1978, the U.S. current account was
in deficit by $14 billion. This year, even though the recent oil
price increases are imposing a $16 billion rise in the cost of
our imports, we anticipate a deficit of only a few billion
dollars. Next year the U.S. current account will be in
substantial surplus. This major positive shift in our balance of
payments — together with our concerted attack on
inflation—provide the fundamental basis for dollar strength and
stability.
Action on the fundamentals is being supplemented forcefully
with action to deal with unwarranted exchange market pressures.
The Committee is familiar with the program announced last
November 1, nearly a year ago. Since that time, the dollar has
strengthened by over 6-1/2 percent against other currencies used
in our trade, and by nearly 10 percent from the viewpoint of the
oil exporting nations in relation to the other major currencies
they use to purchase their imports.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-4-
We are not, of course, interested only in averages. We are
concerned about the dollar's value in terms of major individual
currencies. The dollar is now about 30 percent higher against
the Japanese yen than it was a year ago, reflecting in part the
dramatic—and welcome—moderation of the large Japanese balance
of payments surplus. But the dollar has also been somewhat lower
in relation to the German mark at times since mid-June, and this
movement has attracted market interest and speculative pressure.
We have therefore given this situation special attention in our
exchange market operations, and have consulted closely with
German officials at the highest levels to assure that our joint
techniques and resources are adequate and effective.
We are determined to maintain a sound and stable dollar.
This is in the interests of our own domestic economic stability,
and consonant with our broader world interests and
responsibilities. Our basic economic policies are headed in a
direction that will ensure that result. Our external position is
strengthening sharply. And cooperative arrangements with other
major countries are in place to deal with unwarranted exchange
market pressures.
In sum, we are pursuing a comprehensive strategy to deal
with U.S. economic problems, internal and external. Inflation is
central to all aspects of those problems. Our domestic and
international objectives are closely related by the overriding
importance of controlling the inflationary pressures affecting
our economy.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
OepartmentoftheTREASURY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20220 TELEPHONE 566-2041
FOR RELEASE UPON DELIVERY
EXPECTED AT 11:00 A.M.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 1979
TESTIMONY OF THE HONORABLE G. WILLIAM MILLER
SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY
BEFORE THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
Mr. Chairman and Members of this distinguished Committee:
Thank you for this opportunity to appear before the whole
Committee. The primary focus of this hearing is on Federal
Reserve monetary policy, its contribution to the fight against
inflation and to the maintenance of exchange market stability.
Chairman Volcker will comment in detail on monetary policy. I
will briefly outline the major elements of our comprehensive
strategy to deal with inflation, in which monetary policy plays a
critical role.
High and persistent inflation has become deeply embedded in
our economic structure and is a clear and present danger to our
national well-being. It reduces real incomes and values? it
inhibits job creating investment and threatens our ability to
provide employment opportunities? it impedes productivity? it
breeds recession? and it bears most heavily on those least able
to afford it.
Containment of inflation is fundamental to restoration of
sound economic growth. It is our top priority.
The causes of inflation are many, and the war against
inflation must be dealt with on a broad front. We have a
comprehensive, integrated strategy. All economic policies are
being directed toward a total war against inflation.
First, the Administration is pursuing a disciplined fiscal
policy. We are determined to reverse the trend of expanding
federal deficits and expanding federal claims on the national
economy. Progress has been made, both in reducing the deficit
and in reducing the relative role of federal expenditures in the
economy. We intend to make further progress. The net result
over time will be to reduce the demands of the federal government
on the economy and to release substantial resources to the
private sector.
M-129
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-2-
Monetary policy represents the second major weapon in the
attack on inflation. The objective is to reduce progressively
the rate of growth of money and credit in order to starve out
inflation. Again, progress has been made. But in recent
months monetary growth has accelerated. Earlier this month, the
Federal Reserve announced a series of forceful actions that
should serve to contain growth in the monetary aggregates and
dampen inflationary pressures. These steps were needed and
appropr iate.
Third, fiscal and monetary restraints are being supplemented
by the voluntary program to moderate pay and price increases.
Widespread cooperation during the first year brought smaller
price and pay increases than would otherwise have been recorded.
We are providing for greater participation by management and
labor in establishing and applying pay standards during the
second year, which should help avoid inequities that could
otherwise develop over time. A broadly representative pay
committee, to be chaired by John Dunlop, will have as its first
task the development of pay standards for the period ahead. The
Administration has developed a National Accord with labor
leadership in support of the war against inflation, and providing
for labor involvement in the pay-price program.
Fourth is energy. The ten-fold increase in world oil prices
has been a principal contributor to the acceleration of inflation
during this decade. Constraints on energy supply pose important
questions about the prospects for real economic progress
worldwide.
To win the war against inflation, it is essential that we
reduce our dependence on imported oil and that we reduce our
dependence on oil itself as a source of energy.
For 2-1/2 years, President Carter has sought support for a
broad and comprehensive program to achieve these objectives. The
diversity of individual circumstances and interests in our vast
country has made it exceedingly difficult to hammer out a
national energy program. Some important parts of the program
have already been put into place. The President has recently
taken two major steps—on decontrol of domestic crude prices and
on limiting oil imports—under his own powers and his own
initiative. Remaining critical elements are now under active
review by the Congress.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-3-
The priorities for our energy program are clear. We must
conserve. We must increase the development and use of
conventional domestic energy sources. We must increase the use
of renewable energy sources. And we must rigorously develop
unconditional domestic energy sources. Fully in place, our
national energy program is expected to cut oil imports by about
50 percent — 4 to 5 million barrels per day—from present levels
and by about 8 to 9 million barrels per day from levels that
would have been reached without a comprehensive energy plan.
Also of major importance for the longer run, we are
attacking unnecessary cost-raising government regulation. Much
has been done to reduce regulatory barriers to efficiency and
competition, and to reduce the administrative burdens on business
in complying with excessive regulation. But much regulation is
founded in statute. Administratively, we can clarify and
simplify. But we will frequently need legislation to achieve
real reductions in burden.
These domestic policies--our efforts to wring out inflation,
secure sufficient independence and restore efficiency and
vitality to the U.S. economy--are also the policies needed to
assure a strong external position, a sound and stable dollar.
Indeed, maintenance of exchange market stability is essential
in the fight against inflation and forms an important part of our
comprehensive attack on inflation.
Despite the massive buildup in our oil import bill, the
effort to strengthen the United States balance of payments has
made significant progress. In 1978, the U.S. current account was
in deficit by $14 billion. This year, even though the recent oil
price increases are imposing a $16 billion rise in the cost of
our imports, we anticipate a deficit of only a few billion
dollars. Next year the U.S. current account will be in
substantial surplus. This major positive shift in our balance of
payments — together with our concerted attack on
inflation—provide the fundamental basis for dollar strength and
stability.
Action on the fundamentals is being supplemented forcefully
with action to deal with unwarranted exchange market pressures.
The Committee is familiar with the program announced last
November 1, nearly a year ago. Since that time, the dollar has
strengthened by over 6-1/2 percent against other currencies used
in our trade, and by nearly 10 percent from the viewpoint of the
oil exporting nations in relation to the other major currencies
they use to purchase their imports.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-4-
We are not, of course, interested only in averages. We are
concerned about the dollar's value in terms of major individual
currencies. The dollar is now about 30 percent higher against
the Japanese yen than it was a year ago, reflecting in part the
dramatic—and welcome--moderation of the large Japanese balance
of payments surplus. But the dollar has also been somewhat lower
in relation to the German mark at times since mid-June, and this
movement has attracted market interest and speculative pressure.
We have therefore given this situation special attention in our
exchange market operations, and have consulted closely with
German officials at the highest levels to assure that our joint
techniques and resources are adequate and effective.
We are determined to maintain a sound and stable dollar.
This is in the interests of our own domestic economic stability,
and consonant with our broader world interests and
responsibilities. Our basic economic policies are headed in a
direction that will ensure that result. Our external position is
strengthening sharply. And cooperative arrangements with other
major countries are in place to deal with unwarranted exchange
market pressures.
In sum, we are pursuing a comprehensive strategy to deal
with U.S. economic problems, internal and external. Inflation is
central to all aspects of those problems. Our domestic and
international objectives are closely related by the overriding
importance of controlling the inflationary pressures affecting
our economy.
Digitized for FRASER
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Cite this document
APA
G. William Miller (1979, October 16). Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_19791017_miller
BibTeX
@misc{wtfs_speech_19791017_miller,
author = {G. William Miller},
title = {Speech},
year = {1979},
month = {Oct},
howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_19791017_miller},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}