speeches · February 4, 1957
Speech
William McChesney Martin, Jr. · Chair
For release on delivery
Statement of
William McChesney Martin, Jr, ,
Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
before the
Joint Economic Committee
February 5, 1957
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
On behalf of the Board of Governors I wish to say again
that we are always glad to have an opportunity to appear here. We
welcome inquiry into what monetary and credit policy can do, and
cannot do, to aid in achieving the goal of sustained economic growth
and widespread prosperity.
The national economy continues to operate at the highest
levels in history. Gross national product reached the unprecedented
rate of $424 billion by the last quarter of 1956. National income
reached more than $352 billion, personal incomes more than $333
billion, and civilian employment about 65,000,000. These figures
mark new highs.
The year 1956 opened with the economy generally
operating at near capacity levels. A sharp rise in business expendi¬
tures for new plant and equipment, combined with increased spending
by consumers and by State and local governments, more than offset
decreased spending for automobiles and new home construction, thus
imposing further heavy demands upon productive resources. Wage
rates as well as prices for goods and services moved upward. The
year ended as it began, with the economic climate dominated by
inflationary pressures.
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In this environment of intensive utilization of national
resources, the aim of monetary policy has been to restrain
inflationary tendencies, while providing at the same time for orderly
economic growth. Over the year, the Federal Reserve System sought
to prevent too rapid expansion of bank credit and the money supply by
restricting the availability of bank reserves. To have permitted more
rapid expansion of bank credit and the money supply would have
intensified inflationary pressures already present in the economy.
It would not have produced more goods. Rather, it would have increased
prices further. Without relative stability of the currency, continued
high utilization of resources would have been in jeopardy.
Commercial bank loans and investments in the aggregate
rose only moderately during 1956. Banks expanded their loans sub¬
stantially but to a large extent they obtained the necessary funds by
reducing their investments in Government securities. As a result,
while there was little further growth in the supply of money, there was
a more active use of existing money, as indicated by an 8 per cent rise
in demand deposit turnover.
The great bulk of all loanable funds is provided by savings
of businesses and individuals. Although the volume of savings was
somewhat higher in 1956 than in 1955, the growth was not enough to
keep pace with the rapidly increasing demands. Interest rates on
borrowed funds rose sharply over the year, particularly on long-term
borrowing.
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Interest rate changes, as well as other price move¬
ments, reflect supply-demand relationships. Rising rates, like
rises in other prices, indicate that demand is exceeding supply.
They discourage some borrowing on the one hand and encourage
increased saving on the other. Thus they perform the vital function
of balancing supply and demand. Current interest rates are a signal
that the economy is straining its resources by trying to accomplish
more at one time than resources permit.
Economic realities cannot be eliminated or circum¬
vented by government fiat. Even the Congress with its enormous
powers to redirect the available resources of the country must operate
within the aggregate of resources available. In other words, under
conditions of heavy utilization of resources generally, an increase in
the resources made available to any one sector of the community
would have to be taken from other sectors either by taxation, or by
some form of direct rationing, or by the processes of the market.
They cannot be made available by attempts to ease credit. That is the
road to inflation. In 1956, fully half of the increase in gross national
product represented a mark-up in prices. Had commercial banks been
enabled to generate sufficient new money to satisfy all the demands for
funds that were pressing on the market, the result perhaps would have
been a smaller rise in interest rates, but at the expense of a sharper
rise in prices of goods and services.
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In the final analysis, investment must be financed out
of saving from current income, This economic principle cannot be
vitiated by any form of monetary manipulation. Under our institutions
there is no practicable way of balancing savings and investment without
flexible interest rates.
Monetary policy must be administered with regard to
changing situations in the financial markets. During 1956, within its
general policy of restraint, System operations met seasonal changes
in the reserve needs of member banks and also cushioned disturbing
movements in financial markets, including those arising from necessary
Treasury financing. From time to time, during the course of the year,
the degree of restraint was adjusted to variations in the financial
climate and in business activity.
Notwithstanding the combined influence of restraint on
credit expansion and the realization of a substantial cash surplus in
the Federal budget, prices of goods and services moved upward in
1956. Increases of 4-1/2 per cent in wholesale prices and 3 per cent
in the consumer price index are indicative of the vigor of demands.
Such increases cannot be accepted complacently.
In a growing, competitive economy such as ours, pro¬
duction and prices for individual commodities fluctuate over a con¬
siderable range in response to changes in supply and demand without
creating serious over-all instability. These adjustments are necessary
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to economic progress. They are part of the process of developing and
maintaining high level employment, economic growth, free markets,
and over-all stability in the price level. Even though many components
may be unstable, the total economy can still experience an upward
trend in production and employment with a horizontal trend in average
prices.
In recent years, large shifts in the flow of funds through
the economy have originated in such important areas as the Federal
budget, agriculture, business investment, consumer outlays for
durable goods and housing, and State and local governments. Declines
in some sectors have released resources that have made possible
increases in others. Such rolling adjustments not only are inescapable
in a dynamic and unregimented economy, but the ability to adjust to
changes with resiliency and flexibility, and with a minimum of govern¬
ment interference, is one of the great virtues of a private enterprise
system.
We know from experience, however, that the pathway of
economic growth cannot be free of turns and dips. Experience tells
us that important shifts in demands in major economic sectors can be
so powerful as to have an excessively stimulative or depressive impact
on the whole economy. Where the effects of such shifts become cumu¬
lative, they can develop into serious booms and depressions.
Monetary and credit measures, by being adapted promptly to shifts in
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total demand relative to the supply of available resources, play an
essential role in moderating these cumulative forces and in promoting
orderly growth and financial stability.
Considerable attention has been focused of late on the
impact of monetary and credit policy on various sectors of the
economy. Higher interest rates as a mechanism for allocating the
available supply of funds among different credit seekers have been
sharply criticized. It is frequently contended that monetary policy is
depriving communities of such vital needs as schools, housing, and
roads. Similarly, small business is said to be injured.
These are debatable matters to say the least. School and
road construction, home building, and small business activity are
actually at high levels. In some of these sectors, many borrowers
have been prevented from competing in the market for savings by
statutory or regulatory limitations on the maximum interest rates they
are allowed to pay. As a result, borrowers thus affected have borne a
disproportionate brunt of general credit restraint. The cause of this
disproportion, however, lies in the interest rate limitations that have
kept some borrowers out of the market and not in the effort to restrain
inflation. All of these sectors would suffer infinitely more from further
inflationary bites out of the purchasing power of the dollar than they
would from temporarily foregoing some of their borrowing--however
worthy the purpose--if their plans and programs cannot be financed out
of saving or, in the case of schools and roads, for example, out of taxes,
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It is important to recognize that the problem of monetary
stability is to keep the use of credit in line with resources available
of goods
for production and services. To accomplish this, some demands must
temporarily go unsatisfied. Naturally, these deferments are of great
concern to all of us, but unlimited supplies of easy money would only
complicate and worsen the situation,
It has been suggested that the Government should take
action to enable certain meritorious programs to move forward
relatively unhampered by the effects of monetary restraint. These
proposals present very difficult questions of public policy, which can
be decided only by the Congress. Programs designed to make funds
more readily available to some users should be accompanied by action
reducing still further their availability to others, for example, in
some cases, by increased taxation, Otherwise, the effect will be to
intensify inflationary pressures and imperil price and monetary
stability.
The problem is not insoluble. The correction of economic
imbalances takes times, but corrective forces have been and still are
operating. Our nation unquestionably has the resources to provide for
a continuously rising level of physical well-being, educational attain¬
ment, and cultural development. Our resources are steadily growing
and so is our ability to use them intelligently. What cannot be
accomplished today may become readily attainable in the not too di stant
future.
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Supplemental Questions Addressed to the Chairman of the
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Joint Economic Committee
Hearingsj February 5, 1957
1. "What information do you have about the impact of so-called general
credit controls upon small business as compared with big business?
Upon State and local governments as compared with nongovernmental
credit users?"
Manifestly, the effects of credit restraint are felt by more small
businesses, numerically, than by large ones. This does not necessarily mean
that the impact of general credit restraints falls disproportionately on
small businesses. There are over 4-1/4. million business enterprises in this
country. Most of these would be considered small business under any stand¬
ard of measurement, and only about one in a thousand would be classed as big
business.
The major difference between small and large business is not in
their direct access to some source of credit but, rather, in their access
to alternate sources of credit. Unlike most small businesses, most large
businesses generally have direct contact with and access to a number of
banks as well as to other sources of outside financing. Consequently, at
a time when overall credit demands are greater than can be fully met without
inflationary impact, a larger number of small businesses than large ones
find it difficult to secure their customary credit accommodation.
The Federal Reserve System cannot allocate credit among groups of
borrowers. With demands for goods and services exceeding capacity to pro¬
duce, monetary policy over Che past year has been directed toward keeping
expansion of the total credit supply within limits set by the willingness
of the community to save. The market place has determined the allocation
of the available supply of savings.
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With aggregate demands for materials and credit so large, it is
obvious that available productive capacity and savings could not accommodate
all credit-worthy applicants to the full extent of their desires. All of us
know of legitimate, useful projects that have had to be deferred or reduced
in scale, because either the physical or financial resources could not be
obtained.
We know of no figures that permit a precise measure of the relative
impact of credit restraints, in particular, on different groups of borrowers.
We have, however, assembled a considerable body of information that may help
to illuminate this troublesome question.
A survey of business loans made in October 1955 shows that one-
fifth of the total dollar volume of the business loans held on that date
were loans to firms with assets of less than $250,000, and more than one-
third were loans to firms with assets of less than $1 million. Most com¬
mercial banks are small enterprises themselves; nearly 85 per cent of our
14,000 commercial banks have deposits of under $10 million, and, necessarily,
most of the lending of these smaller banks is to small businesses. In October
1955, over nine-tenths of the number and four-fifths of the dollar volume of
business loans held by small banks were loans to firms with assets of less
than $250,000, and these loans accounted for about one-fifth of the dollar
volume of all commercial bank loans to such small businesses. With the close
and direct contact with customers that smaller banks enjoy, and with so large
a stake in the financial position of their small customers, it is evident
that most commercial banks have a strong incentive to maintain the volume of
bank credit flowing to smaller businesses.
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Even at large banks, lending to small business represents a
significant share of their loan volume. In October 1955, banks with de¬
posits of $100 million or more accounted for about two-fifths of all bank
loans to small business. At these larger banks, small business loans
represented three-quarters of the number and one-tenth of the dollar volume
of their business loan portfolios. Lending to small firms is profitable
business, and most large banks are anxious to obtain this type of business.
Information on the structure of bank loans to business since late
1955 is less comprehensive, We do receive reports from large banks in major
financial centers on the size distribution of new business loans of over
$1,000 made in a two-week period of each quarter. These figures indicate
that from mid-1955 to mid-1956 the number and dollar volume of all new
business loans made increased, to record levels. Increases were recorded in
all loan-size categories, with the sharpest rise in loans of $200,000 and
over. The average size of new loan made increased about 30 per cent over
this period.
The rise in average size of business loan extended by large com¬
mercial banks reflected primarily the shift in patterns of industrial demand
that occurred last year. When the bulk of the loan demand on commercial
banks is from industries where larger business units predominate, such as
public utilities, machinery or metals manufacturing, the average size is
larger than when most of the loan demand arises primarily from the needs of
retail merchants or service industries. This past year has seen such a
shift in demands, with the emphasis on borrowing to meet financial needs in
industries characterized by large producing units.
From June to December of 1956, the volume of new loans made declined
about one-eighth from the peaks reached in June. The decline was of equal
proportion in all major size categories, and there was very little change
in the average size of loan.
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With interest costs rising generally, both large and small borrowers
have had to pay more for their loans. Since mid-1955 the average interest
paid at large banks on short-term business loans of $200,000 or more rose by
87 basis points, to 4.20 per cent, while costs on loans of from $1,000 to
$100,000 went up 60 basis points, to 4.94 per cent.
Loan applications to the Small Business Administration rose from
about 3,000 in 1955 to almost 6,000 in 1956. Loan approvals increased more
rapidly, rising from 1,148 loans, amounting to about $55 million in 1955, to
2,890 loans, amounting to about $122 million. These figures are not large
relative to the size of the small business population or to the usual volume
of lending to small businesses by commercial banks.
An increasing share of the loan funds supplied by SBA last year
was for longer-term purposes, such as purchase of plant and equipment or
consolidation of obligations, rather than for working capital. The pro¬
portion of loans made by SBA carrying final maturities of less than 3 years
was small. Most maturities were longer than were customary in commercial
bank business loans.
Reports on manufacturing corporations, compiled quarterly by the
Federal Trade Commission, indicate that the return on shareholderst equity
and profits per dollar of sales both increased substantially for smaller
businesses from the third quarter of 1955 to the third quarter of 1956 (the
latest data now available). Over this period, return on equity, after taxes,
rose from 10.4 per cent to 15.3 per cent for the smallest companies, as
compared with a decline from 12.3 to 11.0 for the total. Profits per dollar
of sales rose from 2.2 per cent to 3.0 per cent for the smallest companies,
compared with a decline for all manufacturing corporations over the period.
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These reports also indicate that the liquidity position of small
corporations deteriorated much less last year than that of large companies.
The ratio of cash balances and Government security holdings to total current
liabilities for the smallest companies declined from 37 per cent to 34 per
cent over the period, while for all manufacturing corporations, the decline
was from 71 per cent to 55 per cent.
Statistics published by Dun and Bradstreet on business failures
indicate that the number of failures where the liability involved was less
than $25,000 rose by one-seventh, as compared with an increase of one-fourth
in the number of firms failing with liabilities of $100,000, The dollar
amount of debts involved in failures of small firms also rose less than did
the debts of larger firms failing last year,
State and local governments
State and local governments spent about $10.7 billion last year
for construction of schools, highways and other community facilities. This
was about 10 per cent more than was spent for these purposes in 1955. Bond
issues for new money floated by State and local governments during the year
amounted to about $5.4 billion, about one-tenth less than was floated in
1955. All of the reduction in flotations was in issues to finance toll high¬
way construction and in bond issues to fund the short-term debt incurred
for public housing projects. Financing of school construction continued at
the record level of the previous year, arid financing of sanitation and other
community facilities increased sharply.
The decline in toll road financing reflected reconsideration of
many highway projects contemplated earlier. The financial difficulties ex¬
perienced with some recently completed roads (financed for the most part at
lower interest costs), rising materials, labor and credit costs, and uncer¬
tainties about developments in the new Federal highway program led to the
deferral of several projects.
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Construction outlays for public housing continued at close to 1955
levels, but an increasing share was financed through short-term debt. Instead
of funding the notes issued by local housing authorities on completion of
construction, these notes were nrolled-over" and fewer long-term housing bonds
were issued in 1956.
Deferral of long-term financing last year reflected the rapid rise
in costs of all types of long-term borrowing. Yields on high-grade corporate
bonds outstanding rose 63 basis points, and yields on new issues rose almost
100 points. In addition, repayment terms on corporate issues became sub¬
stantially more restrictive last year, with longer no-call!r provisions and
higher call prices required of borrowers.
Yields on high-grade State and local bonds outstanding rose 75
basis points over the year, but these bonds still offered investors returns
about three-quarters of a percentage point less than comparable quality
corporate securities. This • was close to the differential that existed in
1955. For investors subject to high corporate or personal income tax rates,
the exemption from Federal income taxation of interest received on State and
local government obligations offsets the lower rate of return. This feature
is not one of prime importance tc investors subject to lower tax rates, how¬
ever, particularly for institutional investors such as life insurance com¬
panies, pension funds and mutual savings banks, which receive a large share
of the community's long-term savings. As the volume of State and local long-
term borrowing increases beyond the supply of investment funds attracted by
the tax-exemption feature, it becomes increasingly necessary for these
governments to compete for funds on a straight return basis.
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In part, the stability of the differential between yields on
corporate and municipal bonds reflects the acumen of the officers managing at
the finances of State and local governments. Because the planning and
financing of large-scale construction projects is usually undertaken long
before construction actually begins, finance officers can time the flota¬
tion of bonds to take advantage of temporary ebbs and flows of funds into
and out of security markets. On several occasions in 1956, the volume of
security issues floated was greater than the supply of investment funds
could accommodate, and security dealers inventories of unsold securities
increased rapidly. As these situations of temporary congestion developed,
finance officers postponed some offerings.
A survey made last year indicated that about 120 issues, aggre¬
gating $175 million, were not sold on previously announced flotation dates
during the third quarter of 1956, The Board's staff has followed the sub¬
sequent history of these issues; they found that 41 of the issues were sold
later in that same quarter and 28 were sold in the fourth quarter of the
year. By year-end, three-fifths of the number and two-fifths of the dollar
volume of the postponed issues had been sold. The pattern of issues post¬
poned in the fourth quarter of 1956 (estimated as 135 issues, valued at
$240 million) has been similar, with about 40 per cent sold to date.
For some borrowers, postponement has meant higher costs, for others
it has proven advantageous. For example, the State of Michigan offered a
highway bond issue in early December, with a maximum interest ceiling of
3.50 per cent. No bids were received. The issue was re-offered in reduced
amount in mid-January, and successfully marketed at 3.37 per cent.
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It appears that, for the most part, State and local governments
last year were able to finance a very large and rising volume of expenditures
and that the rise in interest costs of bond financing was a reflecting of
supply and demand factors. There were some cases where borrowers were un¬
willing to pay current market rates, and withdrew their issues, and others
where borrowers were prohibited by statutory limitations from paying rates
which the market demanded.
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2. "Are present statutory provisions governing reserve requirements
satisfactory and desirable?"
The present system of reserve requirements is not altogether
equitable in its impact on individual member banks• It has not seriously
impeded, however, the effectiveness of monetary and credit policy in
influencing the aggregate volume of bank credit. The problem of devising a
more equitable and effective structure of reserve requirements has been
under intensive study for many years, within the System, by the banking
community, and by other students of monetary affairs, and many alterna¬
tives have been proposed and analyzed• It is one of the problems to be
considered in any over-all review of the existing financial organization.
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3. "Is the breadth of direct control (now limited to member banks) suffi¬
cient for the workings of general monetary controls, or should the
direct influence of central bank operations be extended to cover other
financial intermediaries, such as insurance companies, savings and
loan associations, installment credit institutions, nonmember banks,
etc.?"
Our experience of recent years indicates clearly that the actions
of the System under its present authority are a potent force affecting
financial developments in the economy. This is true both when stimulation
of additional spending to achieve full utilization of resources is needed
or when the problem is to achieve restraint on spending in order to avoid
inflation.
Although the direct discipline imposed by the System through
control over reserve requirements, the volume of reserves, and discount
rates applies only to member banks, its ramifications are felt by non-member
banks, other financial institutions, and the financial markets generally.
Federal Reserve member banks, with loans and investments of nearly
$140 billion, account for more than four-fifths of the assets of all com¬
mercial banks of the nation. Control over the rate at which new credit
and money is created by this preponderant part of the banking system gives
the Federal Reserve System a substantial influence on the total flow of
loan funds, which includes those of individuals, savings institutions,
businesses, and government, and also upon liquidity conditions in the
economy. The operations of other financial institutions, particularly
their ability and willingness to sell U. S. Government and other securities
in order to advance new credit to borrowers, are substantially affected
by changes in credit conditions brought about in part by Federal Reserve
policies.
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As we have pointed cut in the past, the fact that reserve
requirements of nonmember banks are defined differently and in many cases
are much lower than those of member banks, creates some inequities and
problems. These differences in reserve requirements may discourage some
banks from seeking or maintaining member bank status• This situation is
not new and no simple and practical way of making reserve requirements of
nonmember banks consistent with those of member banks has been devised
without an extension of Federal banking authority. The problems arising
out of the situation are in some ways less pressing now than they were
earlier in the postwar period, when the discrepancy between reserve
requirements of member and non-memberb anks was greater than it is now.
A policy of extending to nonbanking institutions a system of
monetary controls analogous to that now applied to member banks by the
Federal Reserve, however, would represent a basic and far-reaching
departure from the principles that have in the past governed banking
legislation and Federal Reserve policies. Commercial banks have special
functions that are not presently shared by non-bank financial institutions.
Before extending monetary controls over these institutions a careful study
should be given to the far-reaching implications of such a departure.
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4. "Is there any acceptable way of restraining the demand for loans
without raising interest rates?"
We are not in favor of interest rates any higher than required
by the underlying economic realities, but we do not believe that there
is any practicable way of preventing them from increasing during those
periods in which desired borrowings tend to outrun the flow of savings.
In order to keep interest rates below the level at which the
amount of loan funds supplied is equal to the amount demanded, it is
necessary to select some classes of potential borrowers and prevent them
from borrowing, by law or regulation• Essentially, the problem is one of
rationing, and involves many of the same sorts of difficulties and problems
that have attended such programs in other areas. In a peacetime economy,
there is no acceptable way of administratively determining who is to be
permitted to borrow and who is to be forbidden.
Selective credit controls affecting the demand for credit have
been used in certain areas where special considerations and conditions
made them desirable and workable, and are now in use in one area, apply¬
ing to stock market credit. The earlier controls over borrowing to buy
houses and consumer durable goods were similar in nature. In each of
these cases, however, there were special reasons for attempting to control
the particular type of credit involved and some rough guides as to what
would be reasonable objectives of control. Further, control of this kind
was made possible by the special character of the borrowing, namely, that
it was related to specific collateral and could be regulated (though
imperfectly) by setting minimum downpayments and maximum margins and
maturities.
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Any attempt to extend similar controls to other types of borrow¬
ing, however, would be balked by much greater administrative difficulties,
and by the problem of selecting the borrowers to be excluded from the
market in a way that is equitable and makes economic sense. Who can say
which business borrowers are to be permitted to have credit, and how much,
and for what purpose? Which State and local governments are to be able
to borrow? Who is to be permitted access to personal loans? An attempt
to develop any system of general administrative rationing of credit in an
effort to hold down the interest rates paid by those who were permitted
to borrow would run into three kinds of difficulties; (l) it would create
inequities, (2) it would require placing great power in the hands of the
administrators, and (3) it would tend to undermine the flexible and pro¬
gressive character of our economy. This would make it almost certain that
any broad system of administrative rationing of all types of credit across
the board would not be effective under peacetime conditions, but rather
would become a force for inflation.
Even from the narrow point of view of its effect upon the level
of interest rates, such a policy would be self-defeating. The greatest
possible threat to the maintenance of reasonably low interest rates is
inflation, and acceptance by the public of the idea that continuing depre¬
ciation of the dollar is to be expected. The reason for this is simple.
If borrowers expect to repay their debts with dollars that are worth less
than those borrowed, they are willing to pay high interest rates. If
lenders expect to be repaid in dollars of reduced purchasing power, they
will lend only at interest rates that are correspondingly high. Such
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behavior has been illustrated in the extremely high levels reached by-
interest rates in countries undergoing inflation. Continued inflation,
even if not of extreme proportions, must tend to cause high interest
rates.
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5. "Have you any general suggestions for revision of the present
institutional arrangements in the field of money and banking,
which would facilitate the use of general credit controls for
economic stabilization?11
We are not convinced that our present institutional arrangements
are altogether satisfactory nor do we believe that Federal Reserve
operations in the past have been entirely successful. Therefore, we will
welcome a comprehensive study of our financial institutions and practices
by a Congressional committee or by a monetary commission and will cooperate
in every possible way with such a group. Meanwhile, we do not wish to
propose suggestions for broad changes in institutional arrangements or
techniques of control in the area of money and banking.
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Cite this document
APA
William McChesney Martin, Jr. (1957, February 4). Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_19570205_jr.
BibTeX
@misc{wtfs_speech_19570205_jr.,
author = {William McChesney Martin, Jr.},
title = {Speech},
year = {1957},
month = {Feb},
howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_19570205_jr.},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}