Speech

V-ORLD FOOD AND CONSERVATION Ad dr • Cht. nt'jr 0. irvis President, Fed ml R'/r/erv-- Bank of 3t. Louis Befor. Friends of The Lend :b^U:J Nt etin^ Cha-nbir of Cornnorc.>, Or— !v> Mebrask* v.. . . _ - - j Thursdav noon, Oc• ,0!jv, ':" 17 , 1J4G Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis WORLD FOOD AND CONSERVATION Less than seven years have passed since the 'Friends of the Land was organized as a non-partisan, non-profit society dedicated to the conservation of land, water and man* Looking back, it seems like a century, so much has happened. Organized human society has had another warning ~ which may be its last - that manTs social and economic and political development is lagging thousands of years behind his scientific and technological progress. We have taken a long stride nearer to an answer to the question whether, after all, man is going to be able to master the machines he has built before the ydes troy him-- and only those of purest faith arc confident of an affirmative answer to that question* These intervening years have seen miracles of food production wrought by American agriculture, with the help of the benevolent Providence whic hdis penses weathoro With only 15 percent of the nation*s labor force in thoir ranks, the farmers of the United States brought food production 30 percent above the pre-war level and held it there* During the war the food and fiber sustained our armed forces and those of our Allies, and helped keep civilian life going in friendly lands abroad. Then after five years of war had exhausted food stores abroad, and general drought had teamed up with war's exhaustion to cut world foo dpro duction by one-eighth in 1945, it was the food production of the United States, particularly our wheat, that played a major part in averting the mass starvation that threatened many millions of the earth's population* In treating this subject today, I want first to deal briefly with the 1S46 famine crisis, and then I want to take a look at some longer range questions which the current battle with starvation has raised* Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The total of all food shipped from the United Sia.tos in the veer that ended Juno 30 amounted to 16 and v half r-illion long tons. never in the history of the world has there been any movesmnt of food to compare with it, Yvhcn the Famine Emergency Comrrittee first met last rvreh, the task of making up for a serious lag, and attaining the goal of 6,000,000 long tons of vhe.* t set for relief exports during the first six months of 1948 looked almost .impossi ble to perform. That w- s 225,000,000 bushels of wheat. The goal was r-.ached and passed by the middle of July. From July, 1945 to July, 1916 this country 5 exported 417,000,000 bushels of wheat, along with hugs qu- ntitios of fets ami oils, meats, dairy products, and other foods. It wos truly a colossal accom plishment, due to the splendid cooperation oC consumers, p>.rm^.rs, the trades, the press and radio, with th;; agendas ef government. Once more fortune has smiled on our farias and fields. Another corn crop and wrheot crop lievo set new records. The world ra.-eds what we can spare from this abundance. Its famine crisis has not endod. Even with favorable weether abroad, it will not end until the 1947 crops ere ready to e-et. Supplies in the four principal grain exporting countries this season ere actually less than they were lust yoar; a 2 50 million bushel increase in production was offset by a 450 million bushel decline in th: supply carried over. ee are gaining a bresthing sp~-ll as the crops are harvested in T^jurope and Asia this summer and fall. People who have been face-to-face with starva tion ere e-wbing more. But reserve s eocks are dangerously low, and North ximoricci once more will be called on to make he.avy shipments. The shadow of hunger is likely to spr;sd over the world again as the winter v/...ars away. Europe and evslc will still be dep:nd-nt on heavy foed shipments from herth America to keep going. If the United States exports the equiv^l^nt of 400,000,000 bushels of all cereals from the 1946 crop, and if wa build back our reserves so chat the carryover next July is not dangerously low as it v.-:" a this your, there will be no wheat for us to w..ste. There will n-t be en ugh t.' g< -.round if TO e?.t it "nd feed It and use it Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis up at the rate we did in 1943 end 1944 and 1945. So while the need to save and share the wheat is not as apparent now as it v;os last winter end spring, we can not with safety ignore it. 1'ihen we turn to its long-range aspects, the world food problem presents many questions, as varied almost as human life itself. Vvithin the limits of this talk, it is only possible to touch them with a very broad brush. People ere asking whether China and India, with their combined population of 890 millions straining at the limits of food resources, must always live perilously close to the border line of famine; whether new sources of feed supply can be developed, particularly in Latin America; and finally, hew long will the majrr food relief burden rest on the United States, and in what direction are longer-term forces moving us in terms of food production and u^e. These questions leave untouched one of perhaps greater immediate importance - how soon will Europe regain pre-war status in feed production? It did not take long after ><erld '.".ar I, but this war left a far greater legacy of weakness, of uprooted peoples, destruction of human end animal life, machines, transportation, facteries and seed stocks. The process of recovery will be slower, but restoration of farm pro duction will have A-l priority. Shipments of feed from the United States to Europe will diminish as rapidly as Europe can replace them with food grown at home or purchased by barter elsewhere. ley guess is that will happen in less t ime than now s eems pos s ible. In India ime China, with their hundreds of millions pressing always up to and beyond the means cf subsistence, a fall in food production from any cause means famine -end death. ",e in this country are Inescapably involved with them. In lands where hunger, pestilence and war remain the major controls :f popula tion growth, recurrent disasters will shock the censoience of the werld. The United States and cthr-r nations with relative abundance can ht,lp moderate the effects of these catastrophes, but large imports of feed, even if they could Digitized for FRASERb e maintained Indefinitely, would work no permanent cure. Unless some basic http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis changes are made, population would morely i;nve up to absorb the new supplies. The problem is not hep-. 1,: GO . Tlw-r'; is vn rns^or, e.lohoo;h it is n't 8. simple on^, A large oxoansion •'. f r-~;d preduooi .n is poasiblo in India end China as a result of IUV ti-chniqms, b:tt-r seeds and liev,st.,ck, impraved implements, bett;r transp: rt-'ti 'a aoia rare capital. But to rris-. th . level ~f living °nd to- have a margin of s'-faty from famine demand a f "r-reoching, inte grated prv^nn of mad .rnisati --n in which evontur ily th'- indi/iuual huann haing will awsumo dignity and importance. Hunan fertility will yield place to hotter living ";nly when people dsvalep new interests, wanes, and aspirations as a result of c ntact v\ith foreign cultures. Ih'twithstaraing rare remote prospects, : ur immediate int-r:sts in the United States li>- in the direction of nodornizatirn "'f baokword pe:plos. Such a program tc succeed must modify th ; colonial arrangement where regions are developed and held merely as sources cf raw materials. It colls for intelligent c "operation between the dominant powers ".rid leaders of the areas c:nc'Tricd. Braad internal:! -nal machinery must be G:ooL"<ped und-ar which this develepment can be guided and hastened. The prec :ss admittedly will be difficult. ho can contribute more to its s'luti n by oxp-rting cur farming knew-lrw, -ur machines and t:els, than by continuing te supply large quantiti.-s •. f relief f' c d after this emergency h .os passed. Th.; chall-ng3 to J later a -tional leadership in volved in helping India : no China increas: their product "no h .la the gain in higher living standards, is no greater than the one neti.ns must mot anyway if they are going to survive in this ;,tomie ago. The areas wf th o w~rld where f ^rtiie and productive soil exists art known with recssuable accuracy. Many of tha curtrias having the highest un developed potential for for d pr'ductioa also have great need f r mar -. f od themselves. It is so with many of th.3 L°tin American countries. The tr-' uble there Is net shortage af natural res urcos but poor farming nmthods, primitive transportation and ;re-cr« p production for export. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The solution is neith-r simple vr o:;]y, but the T b hrsn't really b':en tackled yet. There is need for th. k::. e/-dww: in producing, sVring, trans porting, and processing fod, This we arc able LC supply and it is in .'ur long- run interest to do it. uvzn th ugh th- ir products are iruch like our own, 11 million Ca:aadi&ns, b.-cusc they orwiuc; more rnd have rewro 10 ncy to spend, buy frcm us only slightly 1^-ss than do lo"3 million Latin Americans. The world will cntinue to fall far short of reaching the limit of its ability to produce food as long as the surface is scarcely scratched in Latin Ame-ica and in other undeveloped arras :f the oarth. I repeat, the know-how exists, the to'ls and cepitol are or can be roado available. The task cannot be performed without intelligently directed, integrated internoti nal cv;perotio n. N~w let's take a lo_k rX the situati:n here at home. During tlv lost fpur years 'f war the t\ c^cl pr- ducti n .. f the United States climbed o nd climbed until it reached c high rF ob ut ZQ percent above prc-v"er loo-els. The aoer-wge this year has been large enough and the wwothwr so for has been p]':'{i urvugh, to yield another near-roc. rd f - ed crop. There will bo demand, at h'me and abroad, for more f' d than We can p'ssibiy pr'duco in 1946. The market at homo will b<~ s tr' ng as Ivog as c nisurcwr purchosing p vnr is high. Abroad it will last in volumo .only os long as f: reign production is l:w. hhen hurope and Asia can grov/ th^ir fvd, a* can got it fr:m ruover countries in exchengo for their experts, they vrlll no longer depend on largo shipm.onts from the United States. Th e w*rl d n o e d e a the largest c r o p w e c ; u 1 d gr e w in 1946. hV. x t ye a r t he needs will still be great, but the American farmer sh uld bo able t-"* pay nure attention te soil pr^tectio TI and restoration than was ro ssible during the war. After 1947, the large volume export demand may persist for a while, but I doubt if it will be long. Foreign countries will hunt their f .d where they can pay for it with their experts, preferring not t spend all their do-liar exchange for our wheat and lard if they com use it to ouy some cf our machines. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -6- I dc not b.-lieve that in tie long run world hunger will force the consumers in this country to cut down thoir c. nsumptiooi c.f dairy product's, im-.et, and poultry in favor of a diet more heavily leaded with cereals. On oho contrary, if industrial production and employment romain high, I would expect an accelerated trend toward the ccnsumpti- n of mere animal products, more pro tective f-.ods, and a Lore diversified diet. It is true that on acre of -..'boat will keep 10 to 13 times ns many people alive as an acre of feed turned into meat, but if our people can command the ineoom, they are going tc iat meat nnd milk, fresh fruits and vegetables, and the American far mors will be able to produce plenty cf those things. For we haven't yet begun to use our soil res urces tc their best -ad vantage in the United States. "<e knew h;w to do a much better y.b than we are t doing, but too many r f us are like the -1:1 farmer who answered an invito ti.n to a ttend a s nil con serve.tie n mooting by spying: "There's no use in my going there to he°r that young man talk about farming better, I don't farm as gd'od as I know h w to now.H lro:d gr. ss should be grooving cm hundreds of th asanas of hills and slopes which are ro w row-cropped but are two steep for safe farming. The air is full of nitrogen which the soil needs, and wo have ths plants that will put it there. Liinest-' ne oeposits ore nearly everywhere, and most of ;ur farm lands badly need lime. Vie have -nornwus deposits of phosphate rock in the Northwest that have never been touched, and yet much of --ur pasture and crop land is starving for ph:sphatos, V/e have enough idle capital and the potontinl labor in this country to build a revolution in farming methods, and bring new vitality and vigor tc our soil and to the people whe live on it. iicross the- riddle ond southern belts, all-year-round pasture systems capable of feeding vastly increased numbers of livestock can be maintained. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis New capital invested in complain programs ..f s:.il and w ter management prys rich re turns in increased production •"no lower unit coses. Recently the Soil Conservation Service conducted a survey of 9,346 forms scatt.red thrcughout the United States on which complete farm programs basea an proper use ••_ f land and wo ter had been adopted. These forms showed an increase :f 35.7;e in the average annual production .* f all major crops, and an increase of 25. ofo in the number of dairy cows end 38.2$ in the number of beef cattle carried on these forms. In an experiment in Yv'estern Kentucky, carried out on similar 10-oore pasture lots since 1929, pastures treated with lime and phosphate have produced over three times the amount of beef g^-in per acre and at less than one-third the cost per pound, than untreated pasture with identical seeding. An Arkansas experiment has demonstrated a gain in beef production per acre of 103 pounds per season os a result of mowing pastures olone. These examples could be multiplied indefinitely. In our short life os o notion v;o havr..n!t managed our soil v;ell. 7<e have destroyed a hundred million or mo-re acres of once fertile lend, r,n& are going ahead blindly vesting more of it. '\s have used up soil minerals without roplecing them, end even though the depleted fields grow crops, the enimals and human beings that feed on them ore deficient in heslth. There is no sense in getting '-'lamed over prospective inability of American farms to produce in abundance all the food this nation will require, when even now we have not begun to use our soil resources to -ur best national advantage. v- e kn cw h ow t c s to p soil e r c s i o n; we ho ve t he lime, t he p ho s p h or u s , the nitrogen, and we have, or con get, the "ther minerals we neee for complete healthy soils, Poor lend moons p: or people, oral :ur lond does not need to bo pc-'-r. Healthy sell means healthy people, and we can hove healthy soil if we are willing to work f;.r it and to pay for it. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 8 ~ The world will not move in the direction of fuller use of its food resources except as it progresses in world cooperation and organization, Thq Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has the opportunity and the obligation to move forward in that field. Organized cooperation will be necessary at home, too, in order to meet the tremendous problems of adjust ment that lie ahead. The peace time world may not require billion bushel wheat crops from us but it will require many other forms of food that can be absorbed in higher standards of living* In conclusion: I have been surprised to realize, as I have been talking to you, how frequently that word "cooperate" has cropped up. That is because it is the keynote of satisfactory human behavior* The inhabitants of this planet are going to have to practice international cooperation, net just intermittently and by jerks, but eternally and with ceaseless vigilance, if civilized and organized institutions of mankind are to be saved from destruction. It is so with food - access to which is so essential to the peace of the world* We of the United States have much to share and contribute, but it isnft a one-nation job or responsibility - it is a number one subject for world co operation, and I am privileged to be able to discuss it with the Friends of the Land, and with their friends here in Omaha today in the very heart of agricultural America. oocooOOOOooooo Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Chester C. Davis (1946, October 16). Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_19461017_davis

@misc{wtfs_speech_19461017_davis,
  author = {Chester C. Davis},
  title = {Speech},
  year = {1946},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/speech_19461017_davis},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}