speeches · February 10, 2022
Regional President Speech
Charles L. Evans · President
O ce of the President Money Museum
Last Updated: 11 30 22
36th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium
President Charles Evans will deliver welcome remarks at the 36th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium
Good afternoon and welcome to the 36th annual Economic Outlook Symposium The EOS is currently the Chicago Fed’s
longest-running conference series and has been held every December since 1987 Prior to the pandemic, the EOS was held in
person, with many of you being regular attendees We are very excited to be hosting our rst hybrid symposium and are
happy to welcome attendees on site for the rst time since before the pandemic Based on registrations, this will be our
largest EOS audience ever Over time, our audience has expanded signi cantly Our original conference was by invitation only
and hosted 26 local business economists, including Carl Tannenbaum, today’s keynote speaker, who tells us that one of the
other attendees at that rst symposium was the chief economist from Sears Earlier in-person meetings were limited to the
seats available in the auditorium, which was always lled to capacity With our new hybrid format, we are pleased to be able
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to welcome participants from across our District So, whether you are here with us in Chicago or participating remotely, we
are really excited to have you join us
This conference has always been an opportunity for us to hear from participants and presenters on the state of the economy
Thanks to our presenters today for sharing your expertise with us A special thanks also to those of you in the audience who
contribute to our advisory councils, roundtables, surveys, and contact calls The information we gather from our contacts on
the ground has always been valuable and has been even more essential to our understanding of the rapidly changing economic
environment over the past couple of years To illustrate the importance we place on your input, we have worked hard to
augment our contact base to include organizations serving households with low and moderate incomes So many thanks to
those of you who bring that important perspective
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After every symposium, we write a summary of the event and post it on our website These summaries provide an archive of
the concerns people have for the coming year, and a review of them shows some interesting patterns: We have continually
been concerned about the health of the Midwest’s manufacturing base, the labor market, consumer attitudes and expectations,
and balance sheets However, some of the commentary changes over time and re ects where we are in the business cycle I
found a couple of past summaries particularly notable given some similarities and di erences between the concerns expressed
then and those expressed about today’s economic environment In 1988 growth was quite robust, and the summary of the
outlook for 1989 pointed out that participants were, and I quote, “seeking a soft landing ” It concluded that “the relatively
favorable 1989 economy portrayed by the median forecast—with real GNP growth at a sustainable pace, little further
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acceleration of prices, and continued expansion of the nation’s productive capacity—could be just such a soft landing ” About
a decade later, the symposium grappled with the question of where had all the workers gone The summary of the outlook for
1998 noted that employers were struggling to nd job applicants One of the solutions proposed back then was “bringing
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retirees back into the work force ” With the labor force participation for older workers currently well below its pre-pandemic
rate, this solution is being o ered again to help address tight labor markets today Across many years, EOS participants have
remarked on the in ationary environment and, in particular, how energy prices were in uencing overall in ation For
example, in late 2014, participants were anticipating in ation to remain low in the coming year partly because of low oil
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prices As our own senior business economist Thom Walstrum will share in a moment, this year's participants are
anticipating in ation to come down substantially, and I suspect that some of this reduction re ects the declines in energy
prices from this summer’s highs
This year’s conference has a wonderful combination of speakers—some of them are familiar faces, while others are new
additions You have a great afternoon ahead of you Long-standing EOS participant Carl Tannenbaum, who is the chief
economist for Northern Trust, will be giving a keynote outlook for the whole economy Then we’ve got two great panels on
important topics In keeping with past years’ formats, the rst panel is going to cover the outlook for the manufacturing
sector, with a focus on autos and heavy machinery We’ll also hear about freight and logistics—which are always crucial but
have added relevance today given the supply chain snarls of the past year The second panel is focused more on households It
includes experts who will discuss the consumer and labor markets From a new addition to the program, which is part of the
second panel, we will hear valuable perspectives on the challenges job seekers face and the di culties households are
encountering—particularly in regard to maintaining their health and well-being—as they come out of the pandemic
I am now going to turn things over to Thom, who will share the results of last year’s forecast competition, as well as this
year’s forecast I nd it pretty amazing that we have been doing that for 36 years
Notes
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The Seventh Federal Reserve District, which is served by the Chicago Fed, comprises most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
Wisconsin, and all of Iowa Further details about the District are available online
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These EOS summaries are available online
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Cummins and Schnorbus 1989 GNP stands for gross national product, which is the value of all nished goods and
services produced by the labor and property of a country’s residents, both at home and abroad More commonly reported
than GNP these days is gross domestic product GDP , which is the value of all nished goods and services produced within a
country’s borders The U S Bureau of Economic Analysis began reporting GDP rather than GNP as the primary measure of
U S production beginning in November 1991
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Strauss and Motycka 1998
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Strauss and Berman 2015
References
Cummins, Philip A , and Robert H Schnorbus, 1989, “1989 outlook: Steady, sustainable,” Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago, No 18, February, available online
Strauss, William A , and Jacob Berman, 2015, “Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2014 results and 2015 forecasts,”
Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No 333, available online
Strauss, William, and Keith Motycka, 1998, “Where have all the workers gone?—A summary of the 1998 Economic Outlook
Symposium,” Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No 126, February, available online
The views expressed today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the FOMC.
Cite this document
APA
Charles L. Evans (2022, February 10). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_20220211_charles_l_evans
BibTeX
@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_20220211_charles_l_evans,
author = {Charles L. Evans},
title = {Regional President Speech},
year = {2022},
month = {Feb},
howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_20220211_charles_l_evans},
note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}