Regional President Speech

FINAL From Gaps to Growth: Equity as a Path to Prosperity Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco UCLA Anderson Forecast Webinar September 29, 2021 10:05 AM PST Remarks as prepared for delivery. As Americans, one of our most deeply held beliefs is that anyone, no matter where they come from or who they are, can make it. They just have to work hard and play by the rules. This assumption permeates our political system, our institutions and our economy. But crises can be illuminating. The pandemic has shined a vivid light on the deep roots of economic inequity, forcing us to recognize that the rules aren’t the same for everyone. COVID has taken the most from the people and communities that are least able to bear it. And long standing gaps in economic opportunity and well-being have grown deeper and wider. As humans, we are adaptive. We get used to things. We live a certain way for long enough, and we begin to believe that’s the way it’s supposed to be. We forget that the gaps we see every day reflect accumulated inequities— the long tail of policy, luck or inattention that has made it easier for some and harder for others to reach their potential. And then, an economy that leaves large numbers of people behind starts to seem normal. 1 FINAL Today, I’m going to talk about why this way of looking at the world limits our potential, and how we can use the lessons of the pandemic to forge a more equitable society—one with fewer gaps and greater prosperity for all. Before I go on, I’ll remind you that the views I will express today are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of anyone else within the Federal Reserve System. The Bridle of Our Assumptions Now, before we imagine a more equitable world, it’s important to take stock of the one we have. Economists and many others generally assume that resources are allocated according to their most productive uses and that all available resources are fully deployed. Unless there is blatant market failure— collusion, discrimination or other obvious barriers to entry—we believe that any differences in initial conditions will smooth out over time. In other words, no matter where you are born or how you start out, the marketplace will ensure that you land where you’re supposed to be. And there are many examples of this being true. Amazing stories of people starting with little and doing a lot—confirming our belief that markets work efficiently and human capital is put to its best uses with few mistakes. But this can be misleading. It can make us think that the world we have is all it could ever be. And this bridles our economy’s potential. It leaves countless people contributing less than their talents and interests would allow, sometimes sidelining them completely. Gaps 2 FINAL To get a sense of what we stand to gain from building a world with few gaps, it’s useful to review what some of the disparities look like. Many groups fare less well than the averages we hear about each day. But disparities for Black Americans, many of whom bear the costs of both historical and current discrimination, are especially sizeable. So, their experiences are an important starting point. The differences start at a young age. The average Black child in the United States is about three times more likely than the average white child to live in a poor household—one with resources below the official poverty line.1 Black children are relatively less likely to graduate from high school and even less likely to go onto college.2,3 Black students who do go to college don’t always finish. In fact, a recent cohort study found that at the six-year mark 45% had not graduated and were no longer enrolled. By comparison, only 27% of white students had left without graduating.4 But the gaps don’t end with education. They continue on into the labor market and beyond. Black college graduates are less likely to be employed than white college graduates and, when they do find jobs, are more likely to be in occupations that do not utilize, or even require, their skills.5 All of this 1 U.S. Census Bureau (2021). 2 For example, in 2019 the high school graduation rate for Black students was 80%, compared to 89% for white students. National Center for Education Statistics (2021). 3 In 2019, the college enrollment rate for recent Black high school graduates was a little over 50%, compared to roughly 67% for whites. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2020). 4 Shapiro et al. (2017). These differences in completion rates trace back to a variety of factors including finances, academic preparation and support, and representation. National Center for Education Statistics (2019), Espinosa, Turk, Taylor, and Chessman (2019). 5 Williams and Wilson (2019), Abel and Deitz (2019), Daly, Hobijn, and Pedtke (2020), Buckman, Choi, Daly, and Seitelman (2021). 3 FINAL translates into lower average earnings for Black Americans, even when they have college degrees. Perhaps most troubling, college-educated Black workers lose ground over their careers. Indeed, in the work I’ve done, we found that the earnings gap between Black and white college-educated men doubles over the first 15 years of their professional life.6 In the end, this means that fewer Black men and women are contributing their full potential to the economy. But it doesn’t stop there. Hispanic Americans, women, indigenous Americans, people living in rural areas, and many other groups persistently fall behind, with lower rates of education, employment and earnings than we might expect if opportunities were equitably available.7 Leaving these gaps unaddressed is clearly unfair. But it’s also unproductive. It keeps millions of people on the sidelines or underutilized, and sells the economy short. No entrepreneur would ever stand for it. The question is, why do we? From Gaps to Growth One reason is that we don’t fully understand what we’re missing. We don’t regularly calculate the losses from exclusion or the potential gains from 6 Daly, Hobijn, and Pedtke (2020). 7 Buckman, Choi, Daly, and Seitelman (2021), Shrider, Kollar, Chen, and Semega (2021), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2019), Blau and Kahn (2017), Marré (2017), Glaeser (2011), Akee (2021), Bengali, Daly, Lofton, and Valletta (2021). Some of the groups deviate from the general patterns described. For example, Hispanic American men have higher employment rates than men from other racial and ethnic groups, and women are more likely to hold college degrees than men. 4 FINAL being more inclusive—at least, not on an aggregate, economy-wide level. My colleagues and I recently did just that. We asked a simple question: what would the economic output of the nation be if gaps in outcomes by race and ethnicity were erased?8 For each year from 1990 to 2019, we eliminated gaps in employment, hours, education and educational utilization. And we gave racial and ethnic minorities the values of their white counterparts. We then recomputed the potential output for each year. What we found was significant. When gaps are closed, the gains from equity are nearly $23 trillion over a 30-year period—a large piece of the economic pie unrealized or simply left on the table by tolerating the gaps that we see. Other studies have found similar potential gains. For example, a 2014 study found that closing racial gaps in income in 2012 would have increased GDP by $2.1 trillion that year.9 More recently, a study conducted by leading researchers in the private banking sector found that closing gaps between Black and white adults in wages, higher education, home ownership, and entrepreneurship would have led to a GDP boost of $16 trillion over the past 20 years, and a projected $5 trillion gain over the next five years.10 In other words, a range of studies, using different methods and closing different gaps, all point to the same thing: substantial gains from a more inclusive economy. But how will we get there? A recent study done by scholars at Stanford University and the University of Chicago provides some clues. They look back in time and examine the economic impact of taking down barriers to entry for 8 Buckman, Choi, Daly, and Seitelman (2021). 9 Truehaft, Scoggins, and Tran (2014). 10 Peterson and Mann (2020). 5 FINAL women and Black workers in the fifty years spanning 1960 to 2010.11 They find that better allocation of these workers throughout the economy—putting talent where it was needed—accounted for between 20 and 40 percent of the total growth in U.S. output over the period. Moreover, they showed that most of this improvement came from reducing human capital barriers and labor market discrimination. Simply put, removing barriers for some improved output for all. These and other studies make it clear that using all of our resources more fully improves aggregate prosperity. But the gains are likely to go beyond a boost in the level of GDP. Reducing disparities could also increase the economy’s long-run rate of growth. To understand why, we need to go back to the 1980s, when future Nobel laureate Paul Romer had an idea. He hypothesized that the driver of economic growth is really ideas—innovations in thinking that lead to the development of new technologies, higher productivity, and more and faster growth over the long run.12 In other words, ideas determine how quickly the economic pie grows. His theory tells us that we can boost growth by investing in strategies that foster the development and implementation of ideas. And not just of a few, but of everyone. The first and most obvious strategy to boost the generation of ideas is to increase access to high-quality education and the academic supports needed to help students stay on course. Education equips people with the knowledge 11 Hsieh, Hurst, Jones, and Klenow (2019). 12 Romer (1990, 1994). See Jones (2019) for an overview of the original work and subsequent literature. 6 FINAL and the skills they need to innovate. And it doesn’t always take a four-year degree. Think of all the computer programmers out there who started coding as kids. Investing in students at an early age and offering them a pathway to learn is equally important.13 Another way to encourage idea generation is to create more equitable ways to fund them. Wealth enables people to implement their ideas. But wealth gaps are large in our country, and racial and ethnic minorities are especially far behind.14 Gaps in financing or borrowing to fund ideas are also large.15 This means that whole communities of people have less financial support for putting their innovations into practice. Finally, we need to increase diversity and inclusion in businesses and government. A large and growing body of research shows that diverse teams enhance performance. Less diverse teams eat into profitability.16 I see this in my own organization every day. The best teams are the most diverse teams— ones that include a range of views, backgrounds and experiences. The bottom line is this: making sure everyone has a chance to generate and nurture their ideas is good for growth, and ultimately delivers greater prosperity to us all. Switching Our Lens 13 García, Heckman, Leaf, and Prados (2020), Rolnick and Grunewald (2003). 14 Bhutta et al. (2020). 15 See Federal Reserve Banks (2021), Apgar and Calder (2005). 16 See for example Kline, Rose, and Walters (2021), Herring (2009). 7 FINAL Now, I want to leave you with a story. A girl from a lower income family does well in school, reads a lot, likes to learn. But the family finances, and the family itself, fall on hard times. And the young girl, needing to assist, drops out of school. When she tells her teacher she is leaving, he doesn’t blink. He says he always knew that she wouldn’t amount to anything, and that her decision has just confirmed it. Fast forward a few years, and the girl meets a woman named Betsy. And Betsy tells her that the job she wants, to drive a bus, requires a GED, and so do many others. So, the girl gets one. Then, Betsy tells her that many more jobs require college and she should go. And on it goes, until one day the girl—now a woman—earns a Ph.D. and heads off into the world to try and make a difference. That girl, as you might have guessed, was me. And I tell you that story to show one thing: the lens we use determines what we do. My teacher and Betsy saw me differently. And because they saw me differently, they acted differently towards me. Betsy paid for my first semester of college. My teacher simply erased me. We can take for granted that the outcomes we see today are inevitable, and watch as the pandemic makes existing gaps deeper and our prospects for future growth even slower. Or we can see them as a sign that resources aren’t being used to their fullest, and that people with great potential are being kept each day from realizing it. The choice is clear. The will is ours. Thank you. 8 FINAL 9 FINAL References Abel, Jaison, and Richard Deitz. 2019. “Underemployment in the Early Careers of College Graduates following the Great Recession.” Chapter in Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, eds. Charles R. Hulten and Valerie A. Ramey. NBER and University of Chicago Press, pp. 149-181. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/education-skills-and-technical-change- implications-future-us-gdp-growth/underemployment-early-careers-college- graduates-following-great-recession Akee, Randall. 2021. “The Great Recession and Economic Outcomes for Indigenous Peoples in the United States.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 695(1), pp. 143-157. Apgar, William, and Allegra Calder. 2005. “The Dual Mortgage Market: The Persistence of Discrimination in Mortgage Lending.” Chapter in The Geography of Opportunity: Race and Housing Choice in Metropolitan America, ed. Xavier de Souza Briggs. Brookings Institution Press, pp. 101-124. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7864/j.ctt1gpccgb.10 Bengali, Leila, Mary C. Daly, Olivia Lofton, and Robert G. Valletta. 2021. “The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 695(1), pp. 123-142. Bhutta, Neil, Andrew C. Chang, Lisa J. Dettling, Joanne W. Hsu, and Julia Hewitt, 2020. “Disparities in Wealth by Race and Ethnicity in the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances.” Federal Reserve Board of Governors, FEDS Notes, (September 28). http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2797 Blau, Francine D. and Lawrence Kahn. 2017. “The Gender Wage Gap: Extent, Trends, and Explanations.” Journal of Economic Literature 55 (3), pp. 789–865. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20160995 Buckman, Shelby R., Laura Y. Choi, Mary C. Daly¸ and Lily M. Seitelman. 2021. “The Economic Gains from Equity.” BPEA Conference Draft, Fall. https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/the-economic-gains-from-equity/ Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2019. “Women in the Labor Force: A Databook.” Report 1084, December. https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/womens-databook/2019/home.htm 10 FINAL Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020. “66.2 Percent of 2019 High School Graduates Enrolled in College in October 2019.” The Economics Daily, (May 22). https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/66-point-2-percent-of-2019-high-school- graduates-enrolled-in-college-in-october-2019.htm Daly, Mary C., Bart Hobijn, and Joseph H. Pedtke. 2020. “Labor Market Dynamics and Black– White Earnings Gaps.” Economics Letters 186 (January). Espinosa, Lorelle L., Jonathan M. Turk, Morgan Taylor, and Hollie M. Chessman. 2019. Race and Ethnicity in Higher Education: A Status Report. American Council on Education. https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/bitstream/handle/10919/89187/RaceEthnicityHighEdu cation.pdf Federal Reserve Banks. 2021. “Small Business Credit Survey: 2021 Report on Firms Owned by People of Color.” Fed Small Business Report. https://www.fedsmallbusiness.org/medialibrary/FedSmallBusiness/files/2021/sbcs- report-on-firms-owned-by-people-of-color García, Jorge Luis, James J. Heckman, Duncan Ermini Leaf, and María José Prados. 2020."Quantifying the Life-Cycle Benefits of an Influential Early-Childhood Program." Journal of Political Economy 128(7), pp. 2502-2541. Glaeser, Edward. 2011. Triumph of the City. New York: Penguin Press. Herring, Cedric. 2009. “Does Diversity Pay?: Race, Gender, and the Business Case for Diversity.” American Sociological Review, 74(2),pp. 208–224. Hsieh, Chang-Tai, Erik Hurst, Charles I. Jones, and Peter J. Klenow. 2019. “The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth.” Econometrica, 87(5), pp. 1439–1474. Jones, Charles I. 2019. “Paul Romer: Ideas, Nonrivalry, and Endogenous Growth.” Scandinavian Journal of Economics 121(3), pp. 859–883. Kline, Patrick M., Evan K. Rose, and Christopher R. Walters. 2021. “Systemic Discrimination Among Large U.S. Employers.” NBER Working Paper 29053, July. https://www.nber.org/papers/w29053 Marré, Alexander. 2017. “Rural Education at a Glance, 2017 Edition.” Economic Information Bulletin (EIB-171), April. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub- details/?pubid=83077 National Center for Education Statistics. 2019. “Status and Trends in the Education of Racial and Ethnic Groups, Indicator 23: Postsecondary Graduation Rates.” Report, February. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/raceindicators/indicator_red.asp 11 FINAL National Center for Education Statistics. 2021. “Condition of Education: Public High School Graduation Rates.” Report, May. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/coi Peterson, Dana M. and Catherine L. Mann. 2020. “Closing the Racial Inequality Gaps: The Economic Cost of Black Inequality in the U.S.” Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions Report, Citigroup, September. https://www.citivelocity.com/citigps/closing-the-racial- inequality-gaps/ Rolnick, Arthur J., and Rob Grunewald. 2003. "Early Childhood Development: Economic Development with a High Public Return." Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis The Region, March 1. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2003/early-childhood- development-economic-development-with-a-high-public-return Romer, Paul M. 1990. “Endogenous Technological Change." Journal of Political Economy 98(5), pp. S71–S102. Romer, Paul M. 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth." Journal of Economic Perspectives 8(1), pp. 3-22. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.8.1.3 Shapiro, D., Dundar, A., Huie, F., Wakhungu, P., Yuan, X., Nathan, A., and Hwang, Y. A. 2017. ”A National View of Student Attainment Rates by Race and Ethnicity – Fall 2010 Cohort” National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Signature Report 12b, April. https://nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/Signature12-RaceEthnicity.pdf Shrider, Emily A., Melissa Kollar, Frances Chen, and Jessica Semega. 2021. “Income and Poverty in the United States: 2020.” U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports P60-273. U.S. Government Publishing Office, Washington, DC, September. https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2021/demo/p60- 273.pdf Truehaft, Sarah, Justin Scoggins, and Jennifer Tran. 2014. “The Equity Solution: Racial Inclusion Is Key to Growing a Strong New Economy.” PolicyLink/PERE Research brief. October 22. https://www.policylink.org/sites/default/files/Equity_Solution_Brief.pdf U.S. Census Bureau. 2021. “Historical Poverty Table 3: Poverty Status of People by Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin - 1959 to 2020.” August 19. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical- poverty-people.html Williams, Jhacova, and Valerie Wilson. 2019. “Black Workers Endure Persistent Racial Disparities in Employment Outcomes.” Report, Economic Policy Institute. August 27. https://www.epi.org/publication/labor-day-2019-racial-disparities-in-employment/ 12

Mary C. Daly (2021, September 28). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_20210929_mary_c_daly

@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_20210929_mary_c_daly,
  author = {Mary C. Daly},
  title = {Regional President Speech},
  year = {2021},
  month = {Sep},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_20210929_mary_c_daly},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}