Regional President Speech

12/21/22, 5:38 PM R-Star: The Natural Real Rate of Interest | James Bullard | St. Louis Fed Home > Latest from President Bullard > Speeches, Presentations and Commentary From the President Bullard on R-Star: The Natural Real Rate of Interest February 26, 2018 Presentation (pdf) | Press Release | Transcript (pdf) St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed the natural real rate of interest (commonly called r*) and its implications for the Fed’s policy rate at the NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. He presented a regime-switching view of the issues around the natural real rate of interest, which he called r-dagger (r†) to emphasize that these estimates use an alternative methodology. Bullard considered three factors that can influence the natural rate and noted that the U.S. is currently in a regime (or state) of low productivity growth, appears to be in a low-growth state for the U.S. labor force, and is in a regime of a high desire for safe assets (the most important of the three factors). He concluded that the natural safe real rate of interest, and hence the appropriate policy rate, is relatively low and unlikely to change very much over the forecast horizon of two years. Related article in Business Economics, (2018). FOLLOW US SIGN UP FOR EMAIL ALERTS Receive updates in your inbox as soon as new content is published on our website SIGN UP QUICK LINKS https://www.stlouisfed.org/from-the-president/speeches-and-presentations/2018/natural-real-rate-of-interest 1/2 12/21/22, 5:38 PM R-Star: The Natural Real Rate of Interest | James Bullard | St. Louis Fed About Us Legal Information Contact Us Privacy Policy Careers Doing Business with the Fed Events Federal Reserve Services Visiting the St. Louis Fed Federal Banking Regulations https://www.stlouisfed.org/from-the-president/speeches-and-presentations/2018/natural-real-rate-of-interest 2/2 

James Bullard (2018, February 25). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_20180226_james_bullard

@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_20180226_james_bullard,
  author = {James Bullard},
  title = {Regional President Speech},
  year = {2018},
  month = {Feb},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_20180226_james_bullard},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}