Regional President Speech

Where Are the Jobs? The U.S. Labor Market Experience, 2001-2004 Cathy E. Minehan The Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum December 3, 2004 .--;~·- :..W,) Federal Reserve Bank of Boston . ~ . ' ' ' What's wrong with this picture? • $11 trillion economy growing at 3+0/o pace • 2.2 million jobs created since September 2003 • Unemployment 5.5% • Inflation growth moderating • Productivity 4+0/o (last 2 years) Two things • Living beyond our means - Personal saving rate - Fiscal deficit - Trade deficit • Where are the jobs? - Payroll employment is still 475,000 jobs below its pre-recession level after 3 years of recovery. What is the Jobs Problem All About? Jobs start to Marsh e5 McLennan, Squeezed By Charges, Will Lay Off 3,000 flow again for Hy IAN McDONAI..I) SC!lll'll a bit CILllnk or It~ profits. T\Xluy Morsh Is ('OllSUIUnw with <:lil'l1tS ii~ il Mal'Sh & i\h•L('lllhlll Cos .. R'lll'.llllg for ras11ior1s n new husJm:s6 model and rec 11 ('.(1-.Uy soutcmeut or hid-rlgi,rlng strurtun. .• for 1h; services, rrce or conLin MBA students l :U 'lw IC( r ' i .w hr s o k u c m rt 1 ti u ::- 1• s t b u u c s p m u e e s c s n . n s c a lt l \ n u I t~ w l l l n l 1> l 1 a 1r y t g h l• e n t d • c •t o ,l m lls m h l, y ;s J y o e n a s r . i. T 'f I ld il: , J f \ i l r u m rs h w C ill h ie 1m f v 11 c :x l - l ...... ,~,.,..,y, ........ ""II fo1 jol;•, Julv w,u~lh,·, bk...k oi· prvo,i1,1ov dcpt•11dinN 0111wu \N)'diffnen1 N1•1ll<>y111<>nt r,•1K1r1• i•urd hy dw Hurt-rm Ml.ab...r.S11,1i~hcs. J h u )' , l /l l r ,u ro l n \u t, ,1 l , m !t , ,t A Job Picture Painted With Different Brushes he smiles may be returning with the job offers but the recent hard •1n1P : l ", . fl l 1 l . ',1 U .U l<. V i)< < l ' . 0 1,ut 0 H 1 1 ,, mes should ensure an end to complacency, says Della Bradshaw W n It l h o usi: 111s lg e h n c o r r o M ! M M T B fd A < , c a n r r , n ~c .n r u g se l. r 0 v 11 t : c d e i s r , O s C : t iv o ~ r l l n t'!. u .u - -1 1 1. 1 J • n ,i g in n th <> f• ,h s , o ., r , t ,.o,.f,, ,1.111, nr 1 H110A•eh1tlUsurvo· rou-r US buet- thnt me strnnu nu ml, nui.s 11,_.h,:,ol"! thoro rcnecr boUt the upt ,nflrmod th.fa summer t hnt tu tltl' nm.1·ket and Um um 1• d1•..1rth o( Joh-. for grnduo of' .studcnl3 mid stufT · J n. 1 g n i11 M h t 1 t t l r il a tt t t 1 r o n e r s tul)(hu:lnlitl11u 1iUsl u llt n u d d c w 11 o l! r i1 Ju d :1 l d d r 8 e .i f l n ly n tu h t, a U r C ll White-collar 1n1Lnl( to an ond. But br,mK focust:d.'' Rnthur tl , t b h _•r o l n r M tl n B m A th ll l! S s t 11 U 51 d fCo f 0 l n n 11 u l! , 5t h n a 1 o 8 t r l 0 ! u A 1 s i 0 - s h lo u lR o y " k i; l , o n n R th e t f h y lt e w :.!O O , l - W r l r n , I I d I c u o t 1 l n 1 m i r c t i 1 1 • . n :s 'A t , jobs maybe 11ihh•~y schOQI$ CllU ll"!,HH right for lhom. 1i employment mark.ot Gn1dua1JnK litudonts \\ < It i h ln flui:h arrogn11cc ~,ve-r d m c :i 1 r 1r l c h h :u Y h l u l - 't l i y k ,IJ o h , ' p ..'11 , ,n S Ulf t R o O !:I next to move AllhOUKh ,,mpl<>ymenl by tho RChOOI. ho imys l \ ' l h 11 1t r l o c ~ s : m ilN rm ) n st r i s ll a 1'.1 r .'.\ 1 t ;1 c h rt y p , o th n u a C X>\t c n tt p r l e (' o , r I !B c S o a h c n h R in ln g n nc p ) overseas 'r,i"lcllr~~li~~\1~~;'4, ';~l:~~i ~~~~~i:;1~ 7~~n~~rt~~~lt yt tw••••n 91 pur COlll o.nd !}2; tJ0 por COlll ur MBA~ port r cent or Ulll gr::uluntlnR pntmt 111 It. Tblti lnvol• tHS b1,d tJffi•rs tin frrndun 11ev1:,i1 Hui:vm-rl !Jlnfl' nnd ,11. nml 83 p<.•r cent or thom fliUnmJ of lhe Arhwl be By EtclknLehoc;r.ky, d l!CCt•J)h>d a, Jllb. At 1\,1;1!; conchml In h~iw to CO~Ch GLOOroonnr.~tJ(Nr ';!t:,~\ -------- {~ S . l ~ U ~ l ~ .h ~ - : ' ~ llt r S ~, ~~ h ~ a :,t d ~i ~ Or fl:!rti. 011 'Students are not ove W r U b 1 i c tt l x .r t - i o h l o la u r l t w k o rs r~ :is r s o f ru fs ,: h • o st r . e .u - o ti u n L g c;o t u o r c lo ln o g k 11:lnaticm, up rrom R2. r>or g,tU1erS-Hll.\u.m. 1 ' ' ~ .1 _ 1 P r 0 1 I~.~ 6 w ~ int 11 ~ 1 y ~ ~ o d r~ o r ; . w ~/\~ h tr ~ ~ M r~ I : . T 7 ! , ? ~ 1 ' 1 c ~ 1 a ~~~ m :~ ? c W ( o ) h l o l e e r t c h w t e in h r e g t t h o h e f e f y r e r h it s a ' , s v e ~ tor 1 h l : n i ,: f t ~ o ~ n n : n rd a . C : li t1 o l ; n b 1; y f l~ t t - ~ C h h ~ 1. n : : e e o ; :~ lo u p ~ g m : y 1 1 ~ h o : n 1f : ., & , ~ k b l~ e l 1 l ~ e le n ; d ; t j ~ h o ~ ~ b 1 , R s ~; b ( 1 'C p y ~ - Longtime vliorkers Aren't Immune to J~b L~~~; '· •~.,,~~'~:~~ WASBING'l'ON - Lene-tenured work 1,~;u~.~~~~~~~ lustries. en; huveu't t'SC11ped the pain of the wc"k ~ Pnlit:y lnsUtute, d n!S('ilrc:l1 bridKC's m Jo o b n m t d ar u k tn et s o h f o w re . r·(•nt years. U.S. guvern Funh,•rmon•, or lhusc displm'.t•<I woik r h y n l Jo 3 b .: s t u N !< tn ' · r h ~ - · t - O c ~ ' d f A e 'h a . h ~ n y y L a o e t u d r a r a O k o r m O ( b u s .• t c r n o · l i ~ n d • u D . , s 1 n t l . 1 • 1 t u p : - 1 t t ) , u t h u 0 . u o t r \ o t r t s h l n e ' e 1 : w j i i . . j l r J J h o n % c h t J m s o 1 r o - b i u I e . r 2 n s p t ~ t n - o 2 : o f i 0 o r n l 0 I t r h 1 J o r r w 1 ' u t n t 1 o 1 i r o l i r t H r - . • l : a k u m t e , , f o ' l o n e . r S ·J r s d . l w J S P e J o o l l a n l b l w i g r c ; s , t 1 L \ < ' . , • : d r . w , A I l . l o h , p l r , W . n f o u . i l , s m y l 1 l c 1 h h r t . s o . . e t . .. h 1 o . - . ! o . t m 7 a r t l • ' f h n - , 1 , l 2 , l i 0 l r . J f I ' d ' n , : l , H S . H ( , ' o W .' o 1 f ! J r µ } o 9 t J t h ) 1 m b o r o s b i o s o l o s e r d t , e h w . 1 1 p f • f i h y 7 1 ' J : o ' : C '; 1 l , l ) f J N o 'f u w s l f { t i t ( • • ' n n L c I c o E H • l m ' P ' l u d r I t I t r . o W e c h o u u ld r t h 1 Where Are the Jobs? • Employment growth sluggish until 2004 Job Growth Sluggish Until 2004 400,000 -,---------------------------, Source: BLS and authors' calculations Cl) C C ) 350,000 Monthly change cu .-c in employment (.) needed to 300,000 C absorb long-run Cl) E labor force >- - 250,000 0 1/) growth - .c a. E - 0 , 120,000 w .... 200,000 = e 0; -/- >, .c cu E 150,000 -------------------- Q. :::s ~- z ----- ---I'-'-- .c - 100,000 C 0 :E 50,000 Cl) C) E Cl) > <( Recovery till 04:2003 01-03:2004 October 2004 03:2003 Where Are the Jobs? • Employment growth sluggish until 2004 • Unemployment longer in duration and different demographically Unemployment Durations Unusually Long 10.0 □ Past Recessions Average (1969-1982) 9.0 ■ 1990-91 Recession Ill ~ Cl) □ 2001 Recession Cl) 3-'; 8.0 C: Cl) 7.0 - - E >, 0 ii 6.0 E Cl) C: 5.0 :..:.J. .. 0 C: 4.0 0 ... I'll ::, 3.0 C C: :Is'll 2.0 Cl) :i: 1.0 0.0 At start of recession At end of recession 35 months after end Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Less Educated Workers and Younger Workers Over-Represented in the Long-Term Unemployed 2---,---------------------,-------------- · - -Ill C C .. l J . ) □ ■ .r:. ..0.. 1984-1985 1993-1994 D 2003-2004 ; - § 0 1.5 ~ -g - - C .rC:l.) Cl) 1 - ~ Cl) C C. ·- S 0 - ·- 0 5 0 - . :.:; ~ C'O ::I 0::: ,, Cl) 0 -'--_.___ Less than H .S. H.S. Diploma Some college 4-yr. college and + - .!!? 1.5 ,------------;================ .r:. (1) 1984-1985 ■ 1992-1993 D2003-2004 .r:. .(..). .E :t::: 3: ... 1 - 0 C .-0 cu (1) (.) ... (1) -(1) .c C. - 0.5 O ·-C 0 (1) :;; O') cu cu o~- 0::: 25 - 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66+ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Where Are the Jobs? • Employment growth sluggish • Unemployment longer in duration and different demographically • Labor force participation down Labor Force Participation Fell 10.5 66 ..C..l.) I}_ ~ 9.5 0 64 C cCul) .. 0 ... 8.5 ns ~ C. 1: 62 ·c3 7.5 - t: Cl) E ns ~ 6.5 6 0 a. 0--------------i_ Cl) C. ~ E 5.5 0 Cl) C 58 ~ ::J 4.5 0 .c -Unemployment Rate ns 56 ...I Labor Force Participation Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics How Much Employment is Enough? That depends on estimates of: • Population growth (including immigration) How Much Employment is Enough? (by December 2006) Monthly Growth Needed for Full Employment by December 2006 300,000 250,000 - -- - - - - - ~ --- ~ 200,000 - - - -- - - -0-, .... ~ 150,000 - - - - - - - - Q) .c E i 100,000 - - - - Demographic 50,000 - ,- Component 0 Low Estimate Medium Estimate High Estimate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Authors' computations How Much Employment is Enough? That depends on estimates of: • Population growth (including immigration) • The "normal" labor force participation rate How Much Employment is Enough? (by December 2006) Monthly Growth Needed for Full Employment by December 2006 300,000 ---r-------------------------, 250,000 -+------- u, 200,000 .c ..., 0 .... .0.. 150,000 --- -- LFPR Q) .c Component E ::::, z 100,000 - - Demographic 50,000 - ~- Component 0 __..___.....__. ._____ ,___------'-- __ __.__ __ ___.___----'------------' Low Estimate Medium Estimate High Estimate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Authors' computations How Much Employment is Enough? That depends on estimates of: • Population growth (including immigration) • The "normal" labor force participation rate • The non-inflationary unemployment rate How Much Employment is Enough? (by December 2006) Monthly Growth Needed for Full Employment by December 2006 300,000 .-------------------------------, 250,000 UR Component . u c , 200,000 - - -~ - -0, .... 0... 150,000 LFPR (1) .c Component E ::::J z 100,000 - - Demographic 50,000 - Component 0 -'--- _,___c_____.__ _. _____J_ __,_ _ _j___ ____J Low Estimate Medium Estimate High Estimate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Authors' computations Why? • Long-term loss of manufacturing jobs • Foreign outsourcing Long-Term Loss of Manufacturing Jobs 0.45 ~---------------------------~ 20.0 V, 0.40 C: 0 D.. -- 19.0 C C) 0.35 cu ,._; Cl) 18.0 C: 0:: Cl) 0.30 E C: >, 0 - C C: ) 0.25 17.0 a. 'i: E ::s w 0 C) ~ ::s 0.20 - 16.0 ' - i C : : C: ::s -co ~ 0.15 0 ~ ::s 0 C: co ~ 0.10 -Share of Manufacturing in GDP co ~ .c: u, 14.0 0.05 - Manufacturing Employment, Millions 0.00 Source: Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics Foreign Outsourcing Has Received Extensive Media Coverage, Particularly for Services Offshoring of jobs GLOBAL CUSTO~DY - 'Benedict Arnold' CEOs r to e v t e e a c l h s i n n e d w us r t i r s i k e s s a c c a o t e n t m r d r t a e a c s c o in t m w io r i p i n t s u h k t e s r , . W ~ h y C F o & A C Sl u M S t T A U N s D A o Y G E u ME r N c T ing e p m G c o i o l s l n t t k < a im n 1 d g n 1 d I i C c c , • ' g n t s s a l C t u m , ' ' a M t s h s g v u C o o H e n n o r n . k t u o t i t n n f u M w c y , r 1 , 1 i e · l b t . d a < c o M • s h s f l t o n e F - 1 s n . t n o ( k o ' f ) n i l n t w i a h o n n , C m l; ' ' u l l t n o c e u n f x A o n t l t d l o e l t w v l n d e l s s m c C P o c ' a r r r o s c c - n . n r s o o u l l s • . • • t m l E h o v a e s e k • T h C n " h ' i l f o s l l • c b i t t k c i h m - , p t e t o n e m p s .c r r l s e d , o 1 d l b d n l t l l made good sense to repeat what all ('COJl· )[ security Is ombts 1:1nd bu~luess• / Kf:'<;p/n(I IJOltr ,·om1uu1y By- JON CHESTO h V i e m rm ." a s n h id c fn n r a t y : . t l w w h o t'C K n I a C b ' b W e IJ d S certainly one.' l p ( e o o o p d. l e know: Trade 1s compelilfott iN 110w trt:-usonom ; t \ s c : C f h w L c 7 l n o i h o o a r o N o ~ ~ f i C ~ r n m B u l r o l u d e l ~ ~ s w s r u s ~ ; ' - a u ~ e " . b l t ; - h r i 1 d s o N w k o n a t f l 1 t p y h ~ r ) e v i - h .· t e : e r c e W l o n t i y c d w 1 l d r c l c ~ e t a o s o h ~ . o ~ , g w ~ e l a w : S d l e i ~ a c n v y \ h s e o t s J n ~ e e r c l D r - s n a ~ c o k S k ! f - s ~ > o r n f o h r h i t I s f l o n o w ~ n n ~ l n l ~ i l m " : g t l r L d o d e ' a r f C ~ i , l r W v r a f n X o a ~ " o t c e C J Y . h ~ ~ r d ) m t m r ) F l o : u ~ o m ' { t h i B C h i r n l 0 n i l t ~ 1 I . I ~ a . s t . . 1 : S · . ~ t s a . j , v . c c 1 p s u s I o _ 4 v ( r 1 , : o e . e H e ; o l _ s 0 l h ~ s l d u n r a t l r u o i t T v n s t t k o p t a c i L t t / ) r p c b c ' o i i u r · . . ; ~ l o e r o y i c l i j ~ u - t c u e l a d o r c . e . • t ' ~ j < , s r t n o h d , l ~ d x .• ' c W S l . n , 1 t . t s a . s o r p t n , ~ • l l m " r t M n e l ' c t , i i f w n w s r d U p · o r r ' j - • d e u ; o d • l i W ~ f i • ~ J e R n 1 t h m · l i ~; c c h l C O d e s : o ~ o 1 m l c , f O f s \ . s r f . . e i , h t n e n ~' t k t t h . l 1 o s a . i h m t c c n . ~ f n B . h a , r x e r t . t c n · e o c 1 0 r a o ~ t . o n h l v a l 1 u ~ ' t . v ; y l v 0 h l Y - h l i - " r , . e n n e r l 0 ~ ' k t e _ 1 a e l i a 1 F c f r g . s . ~ l - 0 r n , ~ ' r r < . : ; J .. O N N A O LY L S T T S IK, t l U T g ( W t n ~ t l t ( h h h J w u n h o n Q r i e ( l i e m o n ' o J \ { l S n l \ l g r r ( h p f e : J ' p 1 ' o f ) r w < h e r ' O n c l o ' r t , " u o I o h t n o c n t O C e m d S u " l u n l t f C b n n f u e - t n , O i y ! c r t n c " n c t l W o l u l t t r l d n a u l l o i m n h i ( e n l o o l t ' e l m e o n c m y p n n s s ( c r l y ' , , h a s - a C ! i r o : a M s J o " O r r 1 } f O o n n i u ; f i l ' s d r o n l a t h l g U O m . i r d s g t n v o m l h - l t M o t S h e o e t r C h O h l l r P a d l ' r < c e n s t U a a c l n s d ( t J t e r D l l h k b ' w v l l C o n r l " z 1 l a ( I m u K y e w r • M o I e n m n e I u J C l S v . w 1 k t ! ' d o g y ' H ' . < f n s , I a a i ' c o h e l l s g t p ' l s c r r u V " ~ , e a e r n 1 o " h 0 o . n c • t 1 l · 1 1 l i , b u o m 1 l · c u n m u P t c • k i 1 C v r 'l •, 1 i nt out is 11ot to CXJJOrt Amcrlcun Jolls .... Unlik Implored to 'Offshore' More Hush Administration, l want to n•pN1I (• tax bn•nk and loophole thal n•wnrds any n dkt Arnold CEO or corµortttlon for si1lpi Arn<'rlcan jobs oven.c-118, .. U.S. Firms Are Tho Re/11clr111t to Outsource jobs, Report Says Uy ""'"1 Hu -.Lh1N \t.11d11111(fo11 J•,,~1 ,<;1u)J 11 ·nrrr A report by an Influcnual commJUni,C firm i!'I exhort· i11g U.S. cnm1>nnicl'\ tu fllK'<'d up "ofl1;ho~·inK"" OJ>t·rn uons lo .hinu anti lndla, indudinK h1p;h-1>0wer<-d fundioH"I such :\'I rcseurch and d('vt•l01m1c11t. ln blunt terms. Uw report by the Boston Con~11lting Group w1.\1 us American Iirma tlmt they risk l.'X~incl io11 if thL·y h<:11italc in 8hifling facilltli'it to countrn:8 with low c<,stH. That is varlly hc'-'lHISl' the 001e11ti.tl -..·win,v; arc "iUVasl, hut the report ali,o ci1c-Sc u vi<•w iunongU.S. oxt•cutiw!I that the quulity of A111crk:,1n workcrb is. tic-, te~!.7~~~t~·gc~t lie com1>clllivc :11.lvanlaj.!c will with those C(ltnJ)nnfps lhal move 800U('!'II," th<" Tl'l)(.)~l ~tntci:.. "Com1mnies that wait will be c.,ugt,t in n \'1• ciou~ cyd<' of um•ompctitivC' costH, lo,t bu~i11<>.1.S, nil• d<•rulili1t•11 capncily, und the irtl'vf'rslbk dN;truction of vnlu1•." Bo~ton Con11ultinJ(', whkh l:(1u11t51111not1J! ih~ dknts m:iny of the blfU{cst t'<1rpu1ntio11~ in the Unit<·d Slutc-.. nchnonish('S thrm that they have hl·rn loo rrlucta111 1·,1thc-r than tuo l'O~er to out!'lourcf' 1noduclio11 to "LCC's." or low-emit couuldes. But Net Export of Services is Strong 100 90 80 ... 1/) cu 70 0 C 60 en ::, ..... 50 -- - 0 1/) 40 C 0 ·- 30 Ill 20 10 - 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 - Balance on Total Services C:=J Balance on Other Private Services -Exports of Other Private Services to Asia and Africa, Excluding Japan Imports of Other Private Services from Asia and Africa, Excluding Japan Source: Bureau of the Census And Employers Don't See Outsourcing as a Major Reason for Layoffs Reasons for Large Extended Layoffs: Survey Data 1998 -1999 2001 - 2003 All other All other reasons, reasons, 97.5% 97.6% Imports, Imports, 1.9% 1.4% Overseas Overseas relocation, relocation, 0.6% 1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics International Component of Job Loss Relatively Small 200 ~--------------------------------, 2001-2003 .-? i------------ .. 150 - Million workers hired because of trade 100 50 Ill ....0, Net Separations 0 .... 2 Million 0 0 Ill gC: i -50 Total Separations 143 million -100 - 1.3 million workers laid off due to job relocation overseas and import -150 -------------""- competition (2.4% of layoffs) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -200 If Not Outsourcing, Then What? • Reduced labor demand - Structural change? Rate of Job Creation Unusually Low Private Sector Job Gains and Losses, 1992-2003 9-,------------------------ .... C (1) E >- 0 8 - C. E w.... .0... C (1) ~ (1) a. 7 --f-----------1 -Job Gains Job Losses Source: BLS. 6.5 +-,-,-,-,-,--,--,--,--,-,--,-,--r--,--,-,--,-,-,---,-,-,--,--,--,--,-,--,--,-,--,-,-,---,--1'--r---r-'r-,-.,--,--,--,--,--,--j &~&~&~&~&~&~&~&~&~&~&~& d],'~'~/pJ<'pJ<'~'~'~§/~'~'~'~'~'~'~'~'~'~'~'~'~'~'~' 000000000000000~~~~~~~~ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics If Not Outsourcing, Then What? • Reduced labor demand - Structural change? - High costs? Wage Growth is Tame, but Benefit Costs Have Increased Selected Components of Compensation 25 25.3% Retirement and savings 15 ---- -- -- -- Wages and salaries 5 s·-,A 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Retirement Benefit Costs - 60 ,-----------~-----------------,- 60 0- "'d" 40 40 Q) 0) C: ca 20 .-c 4 70) 0 0 C: Q...) " -20 --l--,--,--,-,--,---,-.--,---,---,-.---,---,--,-.---,----r--,------,---,--,--,-,----,--,---,--,--,---,-,---,-,-- - -20 a Q . ) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unpublished Data. Estimated variances have not been calculated so there is no basis for asserting precision. Sample size is small and non-response may affect estimates. ___J I I If Not Outsourcing, Then What? • Reduced labor demand - Structural change? - High costs? - Uncertainty? Is the Outlook Unusually Uncertain? • Geopolitical factors • Energy prices • Future labor costs • The "twin deficits" • Corporate governance issues If Not Outsourcing, Then What? • Reduced labor demand - Structural change? - High costs? - Uncertainty? - Other side of productivity coin U.S. Productivity Growth 6.-------------------------------, <i en ~ 5 --- 0 ~ a, Structural Productivity ~- cCa ) ±-~::'! L. Growth o ~ 4 -1------------------ ca / ::I C) "eC C ·s; 3-- C. 0 E C ·-a, La,. C) 1:: 2- C ca ca ::::i .c C" 0 I ..., M C 1 a, ~ a, C. 0 -1-,---,-.---,--,--,---,---,-,---,--,------,---,-.---,--,--,---,---,-,--,--,--,---,-.---,----,-,--,--,---,---,--r----,-.---,--,---,---,-......,---J ~&~&~&~&~&~&~&~&~&~&~ ~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~'s§)'s§)'~-~-~-~-~-~-~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Policy Takeaways • Don't adopt any trade or tax regime to solve the outsourcing problem. • Do remain patient. • For the long-run, concentrate on creating work force that can fill the high value added jobs being created. Long-Term Loss of Manufacturing Jobs 0.45 ..,...------------------------------.- 20.0 ti) C: Q. 19.0 0 C C) 0.35 -t---- ----- ....- ctl Cl) 18.0 c: 0:: Cl) 0.30 E C: >, C) c0.. C: 17.0 " . i .. : . E ::I w (J ~ 0.20 C) ::I 16.0 "i C : : C: -ctl u ::I ~ 0.15 ~ 0 15.0 ::I e C: ctl ctl ~ .c ti) 14.0 0.05 Manufacturing Employment, Millions +o----------, - 0.00 13.0 +-r--r-r--r-r--r-r-.--r-.--r-.--r--.-,---.-,---.-,---.-,--,--,-r,-r,-r,-,,-,,-,,-,,r,-r,-r,-r,-,r-,r-,r-,r-,-,--L ~&&&~&&&~&&&~&&&~&&&~&&&~ &'6'-''~'&'&'~-~-~-~-~-~~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-R}-~-~-~-~-~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Source: Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cathy E. Minehan (2004, December 2). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_20041203_cathy_e_minehan

@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_20041203_cathy_e_minehan,
  author = {Cathy E. Minehan},
  title = {Regional President Speech},
  year = {2004},
  month = {Dec},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_20041203_cathy_e_minehan},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}