Regional President Speech

Economic Report on the United States and New England A Presentation before The New England Council Board of Directors Given by Cathy E. Minehan and Lynn E. Browne o, December 1 1996 Chart 1 Real Gross Domestic Product (1992 $) and Nonfarm Payroll Employment YearoverYearPe~entChange 10 --Real GDP 8 Employment 6 ... . . • • . . I t' 4 -. :- - ~ . . ' . ' 2 - . . _ _ -. . , . . ' • - - - - - - - . ' . . . - . .• • ' • • . . • • ' ' ' • ' ' ' • ' 0 • ' -2 -4 69 01 72 01 75 01 78 01 81 01 84 01 87 01 90 01 93 01 96 01 Note: Shaded areas indicate NBER dated U.S. recessions. Chart 2 The Unemployment Rate Percent 12 Il'<ml 11 - - - - - - - - - - - - -i... ... - - n!1 l .. 10 -------------~ -- • 9 -------------~---- ~.. I,JtI 8 7 6 -------,1~-------- ------- Nov till • 5.4% 5 ---------------------11----------------- l,;-:',1, 1, 4 ---------------------1----------------- 1 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ~', '-;- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I ~.- 2 ---------------------ti----------------- . ,-;,· 1 --------------------- 'i-- .. ---------------- 0 69 Q1 72 Q1 75 Q1 78 Q1 81 Q1 84 Q1 87 Q1 90 Q1 93 Q1 96 Q1 Note: Shaded areas indicate NBER dated U.S. recessions. Chart 3 Consumer Price Index Year over Year Percent Change ~. Percent 16 ~;\:i~ M:;:~ tv,n ~t.},] 14 ---------------------~ ~~~ (,\\,( ( ~ 1 ----------------- CPI All Items 12 Core CPI 10 8 6 4 2 0 69 Q1 72 Q1 75 Q1 78 Q1 81 Q1 84 Q1 87 Q1 90 Q1 93 Q1 96 Q1 Note: Shaded areas indicate NBER dated U.S. recessions. Chart 4 The Unemployment and Inflation Rates Percent Year over Year Percent Change -------------, 6 11 . 10 . • . , , • • . . , , , • . . 5 9 , , , • . ~.. , . . ,..... . ··•., .... -· ~ \ • . . 8 . . ·-. .. - . . . , • • • . . --- , , • .. ... . 4 , . 7 . . ........... .. ·- .. . 6 . --------------------- • ~. -....-..-..- . -- .-.. .. .. 3 ... 5 4 2 3 - Unemployment Rate (Left Scale) •••••..•.•• Consumer Price Index less 2 1 Food and Energy (Right Scale) 1 0 L...-J.......J.--.1..-..J---i..-.1.-J-...I..-.J....-J.-J~--'----'--_.___.__~ 86 Q1 87 Q1 88 Q1 89 Q1 90 Q1 91 Q1 92 Q1 93 Q1 94 Q1 95 Q1 96 Q1 Note: Shaded area indicates the 1990-91 NBER dated recession. Chart 5 Employment Cost Index Year over Year Percent Change 8 ·' Total Compensation 7 -------------------------------- ~ ,, . '. ••••••••••· Wages and Salaries , I - · - · - Benefits . . I I 6 ---------------~------,-~--------- ' ' 5 ------------------------------------------- ' ... .... ' •- , , \ , 4 --~L-------------- --------------~-.-,-. ----------------- . , , , ••• \ , '-Ip,.... .;,. . \ . , .. \ 3 ' . ' 2 ----------------------------------·~------- 1 86 01 87 01 88 01 89 01 90 01 91 01 92 01 93 01 94 01 95 01 96 01 Note: Shaded area indicates the 1990-91 NBER dated recession. Chart 6 Nonfarm Business Productivity Year over Year Percent Change 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 69 Q1 72 Q1 75 Q1 78 Q1 81 Q1 84 Q1 87 Q1 90 Q1 93 Q1 96 Q1 Note: Shaded areas indicate NBER dated U.S. recessions. Chart NE-1 Total Payroll Employment Indexed to the United States 1991 Trough Index, March 1991 = 1.00 1.14 1.12 United States 1.10 ..... .. ---·#·· · ...... ·.\ 1.08 :··· ' ' ..... • New England 1.06 .. .. , . ....... . ... ··•···· 1.04 . .. ···-· ... 1.02 ... ..... ·· 1.00 ....... .... •..,,,: ···.. · .. ..•• .. : ..... ·• •·---··•"' 0.98 0.96 0.94 Jan 88 Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Chart NE-2 Nonfarm Payroll Employment in the New England States Index, U.S. recession trough of March 1991 = 1.00 1.20 ...-------- 1.15 . ."·· :' New Hampshire ' ; r ••.,.,•I••\,•_. • .. . . ; , - ; .· 1.10 . .......... 411 . .... ............ , • . - . . . .. .. . , _ Massachusetts : I , ••••• ,.-./ M' 1.05 ., ... =-- . ·;· · , ,. . ,..;. -...,:. - , . , ,. · ame . ,. . . r''· ~••' ,....,. .... ., .. . 1.00 , ····· - · . · ' . , '•• . .. ,. . . ~;'. , • · I'. ................. ... - _,, - . .• ··· Connecticut ••"•,, ..... •············· ····•·, '···· ,• 0.95 0.90 ........_._._~~ ............................................. Jan 88 Jan 89 Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Shaded area indicates the NBER-dated U.S. recession. Chart NE-3 Unemployment Rates Percent 9 ~, ---------------------------~ .. .... , : ' . . .. :-· , f \ 8 - :: ~:: !\ f. :\~: \• .:. ~• •• ... 7 United States 6 5 .. .... ~ :''i 4 :·· ..... ..... : \, .··.f\.: 3 .. . . . ... ... 2 Jan 88 Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Note: Data beginning January 1994 reflect the redesigned CPS survey and are not strictly comparable to data for 1993 and earlier years. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Chart NE-4 Per Capita Income in New England Relative to the United States Percent of U.S. Per Capita Personal Income 160 ..------------------------ □ 1979 140 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - • ------- 1988 1995 120 ------- 100 80 60 40 20 New England Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont Chart NE-5 Mix of New England Jobs Lost and Recovered Recession: February 1989 to December 1991 Recovery: December 1991 to October 1996 Thousands of Jobs 400 Recession 300 Recovery 200 100 0 -100 -200 Manufacturing Trade -300 *Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate -Transportation, Communications and Public Utilities Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics r ,~, .. • I I Chart NE-6 Industry Mix in New England 1955 1995 Transportation, Communications, 41.9% Manufacturing and Public Utilities 4.2% Retail and Wholesale 16.6% Manufacturing Trade 23.2% Transportation, Finance, Communications, Insurance, and Public and Real Utilities Estate 6.8% 14.1 % Government Retail and Wholesale Trade 4.6% 31.8% Services Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Industry Mix in the United States 1955 1995 Transportation, Communications, and Public Utilities 5.3% 33.9% Manufacturing Construction Retail and 15.9% Manufacturing Wholesale Trade 23.6% Transportation, Communications, and Public Utilities 8.3% Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 5.8% Retail and 21.1 % Wholesale Trade 4.6% 28.3% Finance, Services Insurance, and Real Estate Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cathy E. Minehan (1996, December 9). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19961210_cathy_e_minehan

@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_19961210_cathy_e_minehan,
  author = {Cathy E. Minehan},
  title = {Regional President Speech},
  year = {1996},
  month = {Dec},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19961210_cathy_e_minehan},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}