Regional President Speech

Silas Keehn remarks 1 Productivity Efforts and Price Stability: A Policymaker's Perspective Regional Economic Education Conference May 19, 1994 I. GREAT PLEASURE A. PARTICIPATED IN THE FIRST REGIONAL ECONOMIC EDUCATION CONFERENCE, AND l'M PLEASED TO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BE HERE TODAY AT YOUR FOURTH ANNUAL MEETING. B. HAPPY TO NOTE THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO HAS BEEN ACTIVELY INVOLVED IN ECONOMIC EDUCATION SINCE THE EARLY 1980S. C. MANY OF OUR ECONOMIC EDUCATION EFFORTS HAVE TAKEN PLACE IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE STATE COUNCILS AND CENTERS, WHICH HAVE BEEN AN INVALUABLE SOURCE OF EXPERTISE FOR THE BANK. D. THINK OUR CLOSE RELATIONSHIP OVER THE YEARS IS INDICATED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S PRESENCE ON THE BOARDS OF DIRECTORS OF THE STATE COUNCILS. 1. KARL SCHELD, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, SERVES ON THE BOARD OF THE ILLINOIS COUNCIL. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 2. ROBY SLOAN, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT IN CHARGE OF OUR DETROIT BRANCH, IS A DIRECTOR OF THE MICHIGAN COUNCIL. 3. NANCY GOODMAN, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT IN CHARGE OF THE COMMUNITY AND INFORMATION SERVICES DEPARTMENT, IS A DIRECTOR OF THE WISCONSIN COUNCIL. 4. OUR ECONOMIC EDUCATION SPECIALIST TIM SCHILLING SERVES ON THE BOARD OF THE INDIANA COUNCIL. 5. AND l'VE HAD THE PLEASURE TO SERVE ON THE GOVERNING BOARD OF THE ILLINOIS COUNCIL. E. IT'S BEEN A REWARDING AND, I THINK, A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL, PARTNERSHIP--ONE THAT I HOPE WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY YEARS TO COME. II. SPEAKING OF THE VERY PRODUCTIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE COUNCILS,AN-0 THE CENTERS AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE ------ P- ROVIDES A NAT.URAL TRANSITION TO THE SUBJECT OF TODAY'S CONFERE ._ ~ ... , ...._,~ C. • ~ () 0- '-ll L..,\. Le.._"-'\ s ,:;J_ (': tfV'O ct_W ~u ~ '1""') Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 A. THINK YOUR TOPIC TODAY IS PARTICULARLY APPROPRIATE. B. WHEN I BECAME PRESIDENT OF THE BANK IN 1981, THE NATION WAS IN A VERY DEEP RECESSION, ONE THAT WAS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT FOR THE MIDWEST. C. THE REGION HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO BECOME MORE COMPETITIVE. D. l'VE HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE DRAMATIC TURNAROUND OF THE MIDWEST ECONOMY SINCE THE EARLY 1980S. 1. THE PROCESS HAS BEEN VERY PAINFUL, BUT I THINK IT'S FAIR TO SAY THAT THE TRANSFORMATION IN THE MIDWEST HAS BEEN AN AMAZING ECONOMIC SUCCESS STORY. 2. HOPE IN SOME SMALL WAY THE BANK WAS ABLE TO FACILITATE THIS PROCESS THROUGH IT'S INVOLVEMENT IN VARIOUS REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS, A BANK INITIATIVE SPEARHEADED BY DAVE ALLARDICE. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 4 3. AS YOU DISCUSSED EARLIER TODAY, THE MIDWEST'S MANUFACTURING SECTOR, IN PARTICULAR, HAS MADE SPECTACULAR PROGRESS IN THIS AREA. (IF DESIRED, PLEASE ADD ANY PERSONAL THOUGHTS ON PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS OBSERVED DURING VISITS TO MANUFACTURING SITES.) MUCH REMAINS TQ BE DONE, BUT I THINK THE GREAT PROGRESS THAT HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE BODES WELL FOR THE REGION. Ill. WHILE THE FEDERAL RESERVE STUDIES THE REGIONAL ECONOMIES VERY CLOSELY, WE, OF COURSE, ULTIMATELY BASE MONETARY POLICY ON NATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS. A. CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN HAS STATED THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S MISSION IS TO FOSTER MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND RISING STANDARDS OF -- G~ ~ i LIVING. ( --"'-<.J) l ~ '-'\. ~){;~-vi (_, LQ B. TRENDS IN PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH CERTAINLY AFFECT CL ,. OUR PROGRESS IN ACHIEVING THIS GOAL..J Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 1. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IS THE ONLY SOURCE OF LASTING INCREASES IN REAL INCOMES. 2. EVEN SMALL CHANGES IN GROWTH RATES CAN ACCUMULATE OVER TIME TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN LIVING STANDARDS. 3. FOR EXAMPLE, IF LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GREW BY 2.5 PERCENT ANNUALLY, REAL INCOMES AND LIVING STANDARDS FOR ALL WORKERS WOULD DOUBLE EVERY 28 YEARS OR ONCE A GENERATION. 4. ON THE OTHER HAND, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH OF .5 PERCENT ANNUALLY WOULD RESULT IN A 15 PERCENT INCREASE IN REAL INCOMES OVER THE COURSE OF 28 YEARS. IV. WHILE PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT THEY MUST BE INTERPRETED WITH CAUTION. A. NEED TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH SHORT-TERM MOVEMENTS THAT MAY NOT REFLECT FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS IN PRODUCTIVITY. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis I J:,--f t C(?n ..!~, .._ ~;u_ ~ / ) 6 (Lits / I ---- ,,,vJ, ( / ,., B. / THERE ARE ALSO NUMEROUS DIFFICULTIES INVOLVED IN I ; COLLECTING AND EVALUATING STATISTICS ON I PRODUCTIVITY. C. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE QUALITY OF GOODS AND SERVICES ARE OFTEN HARD TO MEASURE. D. AND IN SOME CASES, QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS MAY NOT BE REFLECTED IN PRODUCTIVITY STATISTICS AT ALL. E. IN ADDITION, IT'S DIFFICULT TO MEASURE PRODUCTIVITY FOR MANY SERVICES. 1. HOW DO YOU EFFECTIVELY MEASURE OUTPUT FOR A DOCTOR OR A TEACHER? 2. DUE TO THESE MEASUREMENT PROBLEMS, THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS RELEASES OFFICIAL ESTIMATES ON PRODUCTIVITY ONLY FOR CERTAIN SERVICES. F. NEVERTHELESS, LONG-TERM PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS CAN BE ILLUMINATING. CLEARLY THE U.S. HAS BECOME MORE PRODUCTIVE OVER -- TIME. - -------- Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 A. LABOR PRODUCTIVITY--OR OUTPUT PER MAN HOUR--HAS INCREASED ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 PERCENT ANNUALLY IN THE PAST CENTURY, ENOUGH TO DOUBLE THE AVERAGE LIVING STANDARD EVERY 35 YEARS. B. TODAY, A WORKER CAN PRODUCE ABOUT FOUR TIMES AS MUCH OUTPUT PER HOUR AS COMPARED TO THE EARLY 1900S. C. IN THE POST-WORLD WAR II ERA, AMERICA'S LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH HAS FLUCTUATED. 1. FROM 1948 THROUGH 1969, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH FOR THE PRIVATE NONFARM SECTOR WAS UNUSUALLY HIGH BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS, AVERAGING 2.5 PERCENT ANNUALLY. 2. GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVITY SLUMPED IN THE 1970S, AVERAGING ONLY .5 PERCENT ANNUALLY FROM 1973 TO 1979. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8 A. ECONOMISTS HAVE SUGGESTED A NUMBER OF REASONS FOR THE SAGGING PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH OF THE 1970S, INCLUDING HIGHER OIL PRICES, AN INFLUX OF YOUNGER AND INEXPERIENCED WORKERS, AND LAGGING RESEARCH AND INVESTMENT. 3. GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVED DURING THE DECADE OF THE 1980S, WITH ESPECIALLY STRONG GROWTH FROM 1983 TO 1986. 1. HOWEVER, PRODUCTIVITY ACTUALLY DECREASED IN 1989 AND WAS FLAT IN 1990, AND, AS A RESULT, AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH WAS A LITTLE LESS THAN 1 PERCENT FOR THE DECADE OF THE 1980S. 4. IN RECENT YEARS, PRODUCTIVITY STRIDES HAVE BEEN QUITE DRAMATIC, WITH STRONG GROWTH IN 1992 AND 1993. A. PART OF THIS GAIN IN PRODUCTIVITY IS UNDOUBTEDLY A REFLECTION OF NORMAL CYCLICAL PROCESSES. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 B. HOWEVER, THE DATA ALSO SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE LONGER-TERM TREND IN PRODUCTIVITY IS TILTING UP A BIT MORE THAN IN THE 1970S AND 1980S, A RESULT PERHAPS OF HEAVY INVESTMENT BY BUSINESS IN NEW INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND THE RISING SKILL OF WORKERS IN EXPLOITING THIS TECHNOLOGY. VI. WHILE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SLOWED IN THE 1970S AND 1980S, THE U.S. ECONOMY REMAINS VERY PRODUCTIVE AS COMPARED TO OTHER HIGHLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES. A. THIS WAS VERIFIED BY RECENT STUDIES BY MCKINSEY AND COMPANY, WHICH INDICATE THAT THE U.S. HOLDS A PRODUCTIVITY EDGE IN BOTH SERVICES AND MANUFACTURING AS COMPARED WITH OTHER HIGHLY INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 10 1.. FOR EXAMPLE, IN A CASE STUDY OF NINE INDUSTRIES, MCKINSEY FOUND THAT THE AVERAGE JAPANESE OR GERMAN FACTORY WORKER PRODUCES $8 WORTH OF GOODS IN THE TIME IT TAKES AN AMERICAN WORKER TO PRODUCE $10 WORTH, AS MEASURED IN DOLLARS OF COMPARABLE PURCHASING POWER. 2. WHILE JAPAN HAS AN ADVANTAGE IN CERTAIN KEY INDUSTRIES SUCH AS AUTOS, MCKINSEY FOUND THAT THE U.S OVERALL WAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRODUCTIVE. VII. THE U.S. ECONOMY REMAINS VERY PRODUCTIVE BECAUSE IT'S A DYNAMIC SYSTEM THAT IS CONSTANTLY RENEWING ITSELF. A. AS YOU'VE HEARD IN THE PRESENTATIONS TODAY, WE ARE LIVING IN AN INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC ECONOMY IN WHICH NEW FIRMS, NEW PRODUCTS, NEW JOBS, NEW INDUSTRIES AND NEW MARKETS ARE CONTINUALLY BEING CREATED. B. SUCH VAST CHURNING IN THE NATION'S LABOR MARKETS IS A NORMAL AND ULTIMATELY A PRODUCTIVE PROCESS. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 C. IT'S EXTRAORDINARY THAT THE SYSTEM OVERALL IS AS STABLE AS IT IS, CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT PROCESS OF CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY. D. FOR EXAMPLE, A FREQUENTLY CITED FIGURE IS THE NUMBER OF JOBS CREATED. 1. SOME 2.9 MILLION NEW JOBS WERE CREATED FROM YEAR-END 1991 THROUGH YEAR-END 1993. 2. BUT THAT FIGURE REPRESENTS THE NET CHANGE, WHICH MASKS THE MANY MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WHO FOUND, LOST, AND CHANGED JOBS OVER THE SAME PERIOD. VIII. THE PACE OF CHURNING DIFFERS BY INDUSTRY, BUT IS PRESENT IN ALL. A. AT ONE EXTREME, FIRMS IN THE MOST HIGH-TECH AREAS MUST REMAIN CONSTANTLY ON THE CUTTING EDGE AS PRODUCTS AND KNOWLEDGE BECOME OBSOLETE RAPIDLY. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 12 B. MANY PRODUCTS THAT WERE AT TECHNOLOGY'S LEADING EDGE, SAY FIVE YEARS AGO, ARE VIRTUALLY USELESS IN TODAY'S MARKETS. C. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, LEADERSHIP CAN SHIFT RAPIDLY. 1. FOR EXAMPLE, U.S. FIRMS HAVE SEIZED A COMMANDING LEAD IN JUST THREE YEARS IN THE NEW LAPTOP COMPUTER MARKETS. D. MORE GENERALLY, IT APPEARS THAT THE PACE OF CHANGE IS ACCELERATING. 1. ONE INDICATION IS PROVIDED BY THE AVERAGE ECONOMIC LIFE EXPECTANCY OF NEW CAPITAL EQUIPMENT, WHICH HAS BEEN FALLING FOR THE PAST DECADE. 2. THE AVERAGE LIFE OF EQUIPMENT PURCHASED IN 1982 WAS 16 1/2 YEARS. 3. TEN YEARS LATER, THAT FIGURE HAD FALLEN TO 141/2 YEARS, A DECLINE MORE THAN TWICE AS LARGE AS THE PRECEDING DECADE. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 IX. WHILE ALL OF THIS CHANGE CAN BE UNSETTLING IT IS ULTIMATELY A USEFUL PROCESS. A. THE POSSIBILITY OF FAILURE HAS PRODUCTIVE SIDE EFFECTS, ENCOURAGING ECONOMIC AGENTS TO DO THEIR BEST TO SUCCEED. 8. BUT MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND RISKS DO NOT FOSTER ECONOMIC PROGRESS, AND WE SHOULD SUPPRESS THEM WHEN FEASIBLE C. A CRUCIAL RISK IN THIS CATEGORY IS THAT INDUCED BY INFLATION. D. TO ALLOW A MARKET ECONOMY TO REACH ITS POTENTIAL, THE UNNECESSARY INSTABILITY ENGENDERED BY INFLATION MUST BE ADDRESSED. X. GIVEN THIS BACKGROUND, IT'S NOT SURPRISING THAT EXPERIENCE BOTH HERE AND ABROAD SUGGESTS THAT LOWER LEVELS OF INFLATION ARE CONDUCIVE TO GREATER PRODUCTIVITY. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 14 A. IN FACT, AS CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN DISCUSSED IN HIS MOST RECENT HUMPHREY/HAWKINS TESTIMONY BEFORE CONGRESS, LOWER INFLATION HISTORICALLY HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED NOT ONLY WITH HIGHER LEVELS OF PRODUCTIVITY, BUT WITH FASTER GROWTH OF PRODUCTIVITY AS WELL. B. WHY INFLATION AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH ARE LINKED IN THIS WAY IS NOT CLEAR. 1. TO SOME EXTENT, HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH MAY HELP TO DAMP INFLATION FOR A TIME BY LESSENING INCREASES IN UNIT LABOR COSTS. C. BUT THE PROCESS OF CAUSE AND EFFECT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RUNS THE OTHER WAY AS WELL. 1. LOWER INFLATION AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REDUCE UNCERTAINTY IN ECONOMIC PLANNING AND DIMINISH RISK PREMIUMS FOR CAPITAL INVESTMENT. 2. THEY ALSO CLARIFY THE SIGNALS REGARDING MOVEMENTS IN RELATIVE PRICES, AND ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO DEVOTE RESOURCES TO WEALT H CREATION RATHER THAN WEALTH PRESERVATION. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 D. MANY PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE THE KNOWLEDGE OF, OR ACCESS TO, WAYS OF PRESERVING WEALTH AGAINST INFLATION. 1. FOR THEM, LOW INFLATION AVOIDS AN INEQUITABLE EROSION OF LIVING STANDARDS. XI. THE IMPORTANT LINK BETWEEN INFLATION AND PRODUCTIVITY UNDERSCORES THE IMPORTANCE OF PROVIDING A STABLE BACKGROUND FOR THE ECONOMY. A. THE FUNDAMENTAL TASK OF MONETARY POLICY IS FOSTERING THE FINANCIAL CONDITIONS MOST CONDUCIVE TO THE AMERICAN ECONOMY PERFORMING AT ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL. 8. THERE IS EVERY REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN CONTRIBUTION WE CAN MAKE TO ACHIEVING NATIONAL ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES OVER LONG PERIODS IS TO PROMOTE REASONABLE PRICE STABILITY. C. AT THE SAME TIME, A CENTRAL BANK MUST ALSO RECOGNIZE THAT THE LONG RUN IS MADE UP OF A SERIES OF SHORT RUNS. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 16 1. OUR POLICIES DO AFFECT OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE SHORT AND INTERMEDIATE TERMS. 2. THE FEDERAL RESERVE CAN, AND SHOULD, LEAN AGAINST PREVAILING TRENDS, NOT ONLY WHEN INFLATION THREATENS BUT ALSO WHEN THE FORCES OF DISINFLATION SEEM TO BE GATHERING EXCESSIVE MOMENTUM. D. BUT WE MUST BE CONSCIOUS OF OUR LIMITATIONS. 1. WE CAN PROVIDE A BACKDROP FOR STABLE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, BUT WE CANNOT IRON OUT EVERY FLUCTUATION IN THE ECONOMY. XII. MONETARY POLICY IN A TIME OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX THAN USUAL. A. FOR EXAMPLE, THE STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE MIDWEST MANUFACTURING SECTOR HAVE IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY BUT THEY HAVE ALSO RESULTED IN DISLOCATIONS. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 1. AS MUCH AS PRODUCTIVITY GAINS ARE NEEDED TO MAINTAIN COMPETITIVENESS AND PROMOTE LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH, POLICYMAKERS MUST ALSO CONSIDER THE SHORT-TERM IMPLICATIONS OF THESE CHANGES FOR JOB CREATION AND INCOME GAINS. B. THE RECENT STRONG PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH ALSO RAISES INTERESTING QUESTIONS. 1. IF A SIGNIFICANT LONG TERM INCREASE IN PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH DOES EMERGE, IT WOULD MEAN THAT THE POTENTIAL LONG-TERM GROWTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY COULD BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. 2. HOWEVER, IT'S MUCH TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER RECENT PRODUCTIVITY FIGURES ARE A LONG-TERM TREND OR A RESULT OF CYCLICAL CHANGES. XIII. AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE MOST EFFECTIVE LONG-TERM CONTRIBUTION THE CENTRAL BANK CAN MAKE IS ASSURING REASONABLE PRICE STABILITY. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 18 A. MONETARY POLICY IS UNIQUELY QUALIFIED TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE: INFLATION IS ULTIMATELY DETERMINED BY THE PROVISION OF LIQUIDITY TO THE ECONOMY BY THE CENTRAL BANK. 8. EXCEPT THROUGH ITS EFFECT ON INFLATION, MONETARY POLICY HAS LITTLE LONG-TERM INFLUENCE ON THE GROWTH OF CAPITAL AND THE LABOR FORCE OR THE INCREASE IN PRODUCTIVITY, WHICH TOGETHER DETERMINE THE LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH. C. A MONETARY POLICY THAT AIMS AT PRICE STABILITY PERMITS LOW LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES AND HELPS PROVIDE A STABLE SETTING TO FOSTER INVESTMENT AND INNOVATION BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR. 1. THIS IS THE KEY TO GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVITY AND LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH. D. IN PURSUING OUR OBJECTIVES, WE MUST REMAIN ACUTELY AWARE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN CHANGING AND GROWING EVER MORE COMPLEX. Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 1. ARE ALWAYS SHIFTING TO A DEGREE. EVOLUTION PRESENTS AN ONGOING CHALLENGE TO POLIC E. NEVERTHELESS, I BELIEVE THE OUTLOOK AS A RESULT OF SUBDUED INFLATION AND STILL RELATIVELY LOW LONG TERM INTEREST RATES, IS THE BEST WE'VE SEEN IN DECADES. F. WITH CONTINUED PROGRESS, THE UNITED STATES IS WELL-POSITIONED TO REMAIN AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE WORLD ECONOMY WELL INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. ### Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Silas Keehn (1994, May 18). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19940519_silas_keehn

@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_19940519_silas_keehn,
  author = {Silas Keehn},
  title = {Regional President Speech},
  year = {1994},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19940519_silas_keehn},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}