Regional President Speech

SILAS KEEHN REMARKS o DETROIT BRANCH BOARD ~ IONIA COUNTY NATIONAL BANK - r<-c:ryv -- -- IONIA, MICHIGAN OCTOBER 20, 1986 I. k INT r RO DUCTION _- I-:- 1 ~, - J ,.~ _ .. ~ ~ ~ ~ ::J(YVU,W-- /J"'-~ I I. BEST OF TIMES/WORST OF TIMES - LET ME EXPLAIN THE CONTRADICTION U,A.,tf" ~ - L( ~ A. THIS HAS BEEN A VERY POSITIVE, REWARDING ECONOMIC CYCLE - BETTER THAN WE FREQUENTLY GIVE IT CREDIT FOR 1. LENGTH - 4 YEARS - SHORTLY GO INTO 5TH YEAR - THE SECOND LONGEST SINCE WWII B. AND IN ITS MAJOR CHARACTERISTICS COMPARATIVELY VERY STRONG 1. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT UP 9 MILLION OR 10% SINCE PREVIOUS PEAK A. UP 12 MILLION OR 13% SINCE 4TH QUARTER 1982 (1) TOTAL EMPLOYMENT NOW _f_/_3_~_,_i'tr,,../ (2) PRETTY IMPRESSIVE B. UNEMPLOYMENT - EDGED UP IN SEPTEMBER BUT THIS YEAR HAS SEEN THE LOWEST RATES SINCE 1980 Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 2 2. GNP A. AT RECORD LEVELS; IN REAL TERMS 12% HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS PEAK, ALMOST $400 BI LL I ON HIGHER - SIGNIFICANT INCREASE 3. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT ALSO AT RECORD LEVELS 1~R A. 11% HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS PEAK B. WE KEEP HEARING ABOUT THE SHIFT TO THE SERVI CE ECONOMY - EMPLOYMENT SENSE - YET PHYSICAL OUTPUT BY OUR MANUFACTURING PLANTS AT RECORD LEVELS r ~ · /t(_Jru 4. INFLATION - CPI -- A. ABOUT 2% OVER LAST YEAR B. COMPARED TO PRIOR ECONOMIC CYCLES VERY POSITIVE RESULT AT THIS PHASE - IN PRIOR CYCLES INFLATION HAS TENDED TO INCREASE BY SAY 7%-9% BY THE 3RD OR 4TH YEAR Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 3 C. FOOD/ENERGY D. HAS GIVEN THE FED MORE MANEUVERING ROOM IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MONETARY POLICY 5. AUTO SALES THIS YEAR - OVER 11 MILLION UNITS A. TH I RD CONSECUTIVE YEAR IN WHICH AUTO SALES HAVE EXCEEDED 10 MILLION 6. HOUSING STARTS - OVER 1.8 MILLION THIS YEAR A~ ___ }iULTI FAMTI Y IINITS WILL BE N-g,ATIVELY IMPACTED BY THE TAX BILL - HOUSING ~TARTS, B. THIS YEAR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE YEAR OF HOUSING L7 v.1 STARTS OVER MILLION ,_ C. NEXT YEAR - CAR SALES LOWER 10.3/10.4 - HO US I NG ST A R TS ·- MU LT I -FA M I LY UN I TS NEGATIVELY EFFECTED BY THE TAX BILL - SAY, 1.6 MILLION Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 4 D. SEEMS TO ME THAT ANY YEAR CAR SALES EXCEED 10 MILLION AND HOUSING STARTS EXCEED 1.5 MILLION THE FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMY HAS TO BE CATEGORIZED AS VERY GOOD - PR~TTY GOOB PERFORMANEE WITH - &#45;&#45;&#45; THIS LE\J~L OF ACTIVI IV IN IAESE Z CRITICAL A-Rf-AS C. LOOKING AHEAD A BIT - THROUGH NEXT YEAR 1. OUR ANTICIPATION THAT THE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE 2. REAL GROWTH ±3% SEEMS REALISTIC AND ACHIEVABLE A. THE EXACT NUMBER NOT AS IMPORTANT AS THE THOUGHT ~~~I< 8. THE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE, A RECESSION LIKELY, NOR DOES THERE SEEM TO BE THE RISK OF A BLOW-OUT ON THE. UPPER SIDE CAUSING RENEWED INFLATION ~ 3. PERHAPS SOME UPWARD BIAS IN THE RATE OF INFLATION Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 5 A. FOOD AND ENERGY WILL HAVE WORKED THROUGH THE SYSTEM 8. NOTHING EXPLOSIVE, SAY, 3%-4% C. CERTAINLY NOT PRICE STABILITY - WE HAVE MORE WORK TO DO D. BUT STILL A FAVORABLE RESULT GIVEN THE CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES 4. UNEMPLOYMENT MAY MOVE DOWN SOMEWHAT A. STILL HIGHER THAN WE LIKE 8. BUT TO EMPHASIZE THE POSITIVE, THE INCREASE IN EMPLOYMENT SHOULD CONTINUE D. THESE POSITIVE BROAD NATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS MASK A CONTINUING UNEVENNESS - PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THE MIDWEST 1. AGRICULTURE - GOING THROUGH A VERY DIFFICULT ADJUSTMENT PHASE Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 6 A. THOUGH WE MAY BE APPROACHING THE BOTTOM (THE ZONE OF STABILITY) B. WE COULD CONTINUE AT THESE LOWER LEVELS FOR QUITE SOME WHILE C. THE BY-PRODUCT EFFECTS ON ALL THOSE INTERRELATED WITH AGRICULTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY NEGATIVE 2. HEAVY INDUSTRY ~ ~en_ A. MANY MANUFACTURERS OF HEAVY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS BY NO MEANS BACK TO FORMER LEVELS B. A SECTOR THAT HAS BEEN VERY HARD HIT BY THE ENORMOUS CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS EXPORTS, FRUSTRATING, IMPORTS HAVE ESTABLISHED MAJOR INROADS IN DOMESTIC MARKETS C. BUT THE LONGER RUN OUTLOOK, EVEN FOR THE HEAVY MANUFACTURING SECTOR, CAN BE QUITE Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 7 PROMISING - VERY SIGNIFICANT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS - THOUGH NOT EXPANSION, IMPORTANT PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS (HIGHLIGHT DEERE EXAMPLE) D. WHEN DEMAND PICKS UP, THE LEVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY PHENOMENAL - t ~ ~ q-,·~11 III. BUT LET ME TURN TO THE OTHER HALF OF THE QUOTE "THE WORST OF TIMES" - THE BUILDUP OF RISKS AND IMBALANCES A. THESE ISSUES CERTAINLY AREN'T NEW 1. THEY HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE 2. BUT HAVE ONLY GOT TEN WORSE WI TH THE PASSAGE OF TIME 3. IN SOME SENSE, HANG ABOVE US LI KE THE SWORD OF DAMOCLESE B. THE FISCAL DEFICIT - WHAT COULD I POSSIBLY ADD TO THIS ISSUE THAT YOU DON'T ALREADY KNOW - MORE THAN YOU CARE TO HEAR - BORING AND TIRESOME Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 8 1. WE ARE CONTINUING TO RUN VERY LARGE DEFICITS IN ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE TERMS 2. FOR THE FISCAL YEAR JUST ENDED, THE DEFICIT ESTIMATED AT $230 BILLION OR ABOUT 5.5% OF THE NOMINAL GNP 3. NOT AT ALL UNUSUAL TO RUN DEFICITS DUR I NG RECESSIONS - THAT'S THE WAY YOU DEAL WITH THAT KIND OF ADVERSE CIRCUMSTANCE 4. IN FISCAL 1982, JUST BEFORE THE BOTTOM OF THE RECESSION, THE DEFICIT WAS ABOUT 4.0% OF GNP 5. IN FISCAL 1983 AS WE REACHED THE BOTTOM AND STARTED TO RECOVER, THE DEFICIT WAS OVER 6% OF GNP 6. WE HAVEN'T MADE MUCH PROGRESS 7. TH IS IS AN UNPRECEDENTED EXPERIENCE AND IS VERY THREATENING TO OUR ECONOMIC WELLBEING 8. DEFICITS RESULT IN TREASURY DEBT Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 9 A. WE'VE GONE FROM $500 BILLION IN 1975, SAILED THROUGH $2 TRILLION EARLIER THIS YEAR - NOW M os,.JI ~, / 11,1 HAVE~ $2,074.5 BILLION 8. THE INCREASE SEEMS INEXORABLE - DAILY - WEEKLY C. INTEREST ON THE DEBT IS CONSUMING A LARGER AND LARGER AMOUNT OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET D. THE COMPOUND INTEREST SYNDROME C. CONSUMER DEBT - AT RECORD LEVELS 1. THE MONTHLY INCREASES HAVE GOTTEN SMALLER 2. CONSUMER INSTALMENT DEBT RELATED TO DISPOSABLE INCOME AT ABSOLUTELY RECORD LEVELS 3. MITIGATING CIRCUMSTANCES - STILL HIGH 4. IF THE CONSUMERS RESTRAIN THEIR APPETITE, RESTRAINED BY THE HIGH DEBT LOADS THEY ARE ALREADY CARRYING, CONSUMPTION GROWTH WILL SLOW MODERATING THE ECONOMIC EXPANSION Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 10 5. IF WE GET BACK INTO A RECESSION, SERVICING THE DEBT WILL BECOME DIFFICULT D. THE CORPORATE DEBT LOAD, HEAVY AND GROWING - MERGERS AND TAKEOVERS 1. CORPORATE AMERICA DECAPITALIZING ITSELF 2. DEBT TO WORTH LEVELS AT AN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH POINT 3. THE ABILITY TO SERVICE IN AN ECONOMIC RECESSION E. THE EXTERNAL DEBTS OF LESSER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES - JUST ANOTHER ELEMENT IN THIS DEBT PICTURE 1. WE HAVE MANAGED THROUGH THE EXTERNAL DEBT PROBLEMS ON A ONE-BY-ONE BASIS - THE REFINANCINGS HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY NEGOTIATED 2. BUT ALL OF THE PARTIES SEEM TO BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXHAUSTION-~~~ 3. VERflY IMPORTANTLY, THESE COUNTRIES NEED TO ( CONTINUE TO EXPORT PRODUCTS INTO THE WORLD Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 11 MARKETS TO GENERATE FOREIGN CURRENCY - A MOVE TOWARD PROTECTIONISM WOULD BE DISASTROUS F. THE COMMON DENOMINATOR FOR ALL OF THESE ISSUES - THE BUILDUP OF DEBT ACROSS ALL SECTORS OF OUR ECONOMY, PUBLIC AND PRIVATE, DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL 1. WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST INCREASE IN NONF INANCIAL DEBT IN THE 30 YEARS IN WHICH THE SERIES HAS BEEN RECORDED 2. THE MESSAGE IS ABSOLUTELY CLEAR - GIVEN THESE DEBT LOADS AND THE VULNERABILITY OF THESE SECTORS TO A DOWNTURN, THE CONTINUATION OF THE EXPANSION IS EXTREMELY CRITICAL 3. A RECESSION WOULD BE EXTREMELY AWKWARD 4. TO THE EXTENT THAT WE CAN, THE OVERRIDING RESPONSIBILITY - CONTINUE THE EXPANSION Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 12 IV. SHIFTING AREAS A BIT - THE INTERNATIONAL AREA HAS PERHAPS EXPERIENCED THE GREATEST CHANGE OF ANY OVER THE PAST DECADE A. OUR GREATEST CHALLENGE BUT PERHAPS ALSO OUR GREATEST OPPORTUNITY 1. QUITE CLEARLY THE WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC SYSTEM HAS BEEN GLOBALIZED A. THE MARKETS AND ECONOMIES OF THE LARGER INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES HAVE BECOME INEXTRICABLY INTERCONNECTED B. WE ARE NO LONGER SEPARATE ECONOMIES OPERATING REASONABLY AUTONOMOUSLY C. THE BARRIERS HAVE COME DOWN - WE ARE OPERATING IN A WORLD ECONOMY THAT PROVIDES FOR A PRETTY FREE I NTERFLOW OF GOODS AND CAPITAL Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 13 2. SO FAR THE FOCUS OF PUBLIC CONCERN HAS BEEN ON THE TRADE DEFICIT 5.t'Jy2- A. BUT THE INCREASED IM-P0Ellifl@E OF CAPITAL FLOWS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN GREATER DANGER 8. IT USED TO BE THAT FINANCIAL FLOWS WERE LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE FLOW OF PRODUCTS AND SERVICES C. BUT CAPITAL FLOWS HAVE BECOME I NC REAS I NGL Y DISCONNECTED FROM THE MOVEMENTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES (1) LARGELY AS ·A- i<ESOL I OF OUR -N.E.ED TO FINANCE TIIE FISCAL DEFICI( (2) THE WORLD MARKETS PROVIDED THE CAPITAL k}~-10~ ~ v4;,-<-J ~-.J- / fs OUR NEEDS INCREASED (3) HAVE BAILED OUT OUR DEFICIT PROBLEM D. THE INFLOW OF FUNDS WAS ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISE IN THE DOLLAR Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 14 { 1) WHICH, IN TURN, REST RA I NED EXPORTS, ENCOURAGED IMPORTS AND RE SUL TED IN OUR TRADE DEFICIT E. THE FUNDS FLOWS - THE VELOCITY OF THE TURNOVER - ARE ENORMOUS; FOR EXAMPLE, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ( 1) FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS IN THE U.S. ALONE HAVE EXCEEDED $63 BILLION A DAY AND CLOSE TO $200 BILLION WORLDWIDE {2) AND SINCE 1983 HAVE ALMOST DOUBLED (92% INCREASE) F. THIS IS A PHENOMENAL CHANGE - EXCITING - YET THE VELOCITY AND MAGNITUDE OF THESE MOVEMENTS IS MORE THAN A LITTLE UNNERVING (1) THE PAYMENTS MECHANISM - THE PIPELINE - DESIGNED MANY YEARS AGO WHEN THE VOLUMES Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 15 WERE SMALLER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL VULNERABILITY HERE THAT WE'RE WORKING ON. G. ANY KIND OF A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE A MASSIVE EFFECT ON THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN THE COUNTRIES INVOLVED 3. BUT FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE, THE TRADE SITUATION HAS BECOME VERY DISCOURAGING A. WE ARE CONTINUING TO RUN HUGE TRADE DEFICITS B. THE DECLINE IN THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR HAS NOT YET PRODUCED THE EXPECTED RESULTS IN TERMS OF HIGHER LEVELS OF EXPORTS, REDUCED IMPORTS C. THE DOLLAR DOWN AGAINST THE YEN AND DEUTSCHE MARK BY SOME 40%, BUT NOT SO AGAINST THE CANADIAN DOLLAR AND FAR EASTERN CURRENCIES -~-p;~cnJJ D. THE "J" CURVE Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 16 4. THOUGH THE AUGUST NUMBER AN IMPROVEMENT OVER JULY, FAR TOO EARLY TO FORECAST A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN THIS PICTURE 5. AS A RESULT OF CAPITAL FLOWS AND TRADE DEFICIT, WE HAVE BECOME A NET EXTERNAL DEBTOR A. NOT UNLIKE MEXICO/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA - JUST A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE 8. AT THIS RATE, U.S. FOREIGN DEBT WILL BE $1 TRILLION BY 1990 C. NOTHING INHERENTLY WRONG IF THE FUNDS HAD BEEN USED FOR PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENTS - GENERATE EARNINGS D. BUT THE OPPOSITE - WE HAVE USED THE FUNDS FOR CONSUMPTION - THE .INTERNATIONAL MARKETS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING OUR HIGH STANDARD OF LIVING Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 17 E. THE VERY HIGH GROWTH IN CONSUMPTION VERSUS THE MODEST GROWTH IN TERMS OF GNP HAS BEEN MADE UP FROM IMPORTS - THE TRADE DEFICIT 6. BUT THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS MAY NOT BE WILLING TO SUFFER THIS EXCESS AD INFINITUM A. IF THESE MARKETS CHANGE THEIR ATTITUDE ON THE ACQUISITION OF ADDITIONAL DOLLAR ASSETS, AND PERHAPS EVEN ON HOLDING DOLLAR ASSETS TO THE EXTENT THAT THEY NOW DO 8. INCREASINGLY OUR DOMESTIC DEFICIT WOULD HAVE TO BE FINANCED OFF THE DOMESTIC MARKET - THE EFFECT ON INTEREST RATES ECONOMIC EXPERIENCE FAR DIFFERENT 7. THE NEED FOR THE COO RD I NAT I ON OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES AMONG THE MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES BECOMES CLEARER WITH THE PASSAGE OF TIME Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 18 A. WHILE THIS IS A CONCEPT THAT CAN BE EASILY AGREED TO BY ALL CONCERNED, AT LEAST AS A CONCEPT, MOVING TO THE PRACTICAL APPLICATION IS THE DIFFICULT STEP B. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO DEFINITIVELY INTERPRET THE RESULTS OF THE RECENT IMF AND WORLD BANK MEETINGS IN WASHINGTON, THE EARLY REPORTS SEEM TO BE DISCOURAGING 1 : / -r~ ~ ~°' hll.4.~~u--y V. TO~HE--OUTLOOK CAN BE JUST AS POSITIVE AS THE RESULTS WE HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED A. THE IMBALANCES CAN BE BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL AND REVERSED - THEY ARE WITHIN OUR ABILITY SHOULD WE REALLY WANT TO TAKE THE NECESSARY STEPS B. IF WE ACHIEVE THE FISCAL DEFICIT C. IF THE LONG AWA I TED UPWARDS SLOPE ON THE "J" CURVE FINALLY ARRIVES Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 19 1. T+tt'S"--WILL HAVE A POSIT IVE EFFECT ON OUR EXPORTS AND OUR GNP RESULTS - ( AND OUR FORECAS TED CONTINUATION OF THE EXPANSION IS PREDICATED ON HIGHER EXPORTS) D. IF AS A RESULT WE REDUCE OUR TRADE DEFICIT - OUR DEPENDENCE ON THE FOREIGN MARKETS E. IF THE FINANCE MINISTERS AND CENTRAL BANKERS OF THE MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES CAN COORDINATE THEIR PLANNING AND THINKING TO A HIGHER DEGREE F. AND ALL OF THESE "IFS" ARE NOT ONLY DESIRABLE BUT CERTAINLY ACHIEVABLE 1. WITH A BETTER BALANCE WE COULD VERY WELL EXPERIENCE A HIGHLY REWARDING ENVIRONMENT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD 2. INDEED THIS PERIOD COULD EQUAL OR SURPASS ANY THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE WORLD WAR II Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis SK REMARKS DETROIT BR.BOARD IONIA, MICH. 10/20/86 PAGE 20 3. IF ALL OF THESE ISSUES FALL INTO PLACE, WE COULD LOOK BACK ON TH IS PER I OD AS R(ALLV TIIE BE& T &r •□MES AM~THE TURNING POINT IN TH~IS EyXCIT ING .. ;(,\; (1;:j_ ~ CHANGE ~ ~ ~ ---~ U~ ~ ~ tJ:i Of-f~~ {2--1+'d ., 'f{..,,_ ~ 1) 'Z,' .... s} .Q AND ON THAT POSITIVE NOTE * * * * * Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Silas Keehn (1986, October 19). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19861020_silas_keehn

@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_19861020_silas_keehn,
  author = {Silas Keehn},
  title = {Regional President Speech},
  year = {1986},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19861020_silas_keehn},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}