Regional President Speech

SILAS KEEHN REMARKS ROTARY ~LUB OF ROCKFORD ROCKFORD, ILLINOIS MAY 1, 1986 ALL'S WELL THAT S.JART5-WE.LL:. __ QR__LS.-1Il I. INTRODUCTION A. WORD ABOUT FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM - BANKS - GEOGRAPHIC 1. 12 DISTRICTS - BANKS - GOVERNMENT CORPORATIONS B. 7TH - IOWA, ILLINOIS, INDIANA, MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN 1. BANK - BRANCH - DES MOINES, INDIANAPOLIS, MILWAUKEE 2. PHYSICAL PRESENCE IN EACH OF OUR STATES C. BOARD OF DIRECTORS - 9/6 - 3 1. FOUR FROM ILLINOIS - STATE WELL REPRESENTED 2. STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM/BOARDS OF DIRECTORS A. VERY REPRESENTATIONAL - GEOGRAPHIC AS WELL AS ECONOMIC/SOCIAL INTERESTS Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 2 D. DON T WANT TO BE OVERLY CAUGHT UP IN EUPHORIA OF THE 1 MOMENT - BUT PARTICULARLY EXCITING TIME l. ELABORATE IN A FEW MINUTES 2. UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY 3. IF LVLRYTHING COMES TOGETHER JUST RIGHT - REWARDING ECONOMIC EXPERIENCE 11·. BEFORE LOOKING AHEAD - LOOK BACK A. SET STAGE FOR COMMENTS REGARDING THE OUTLOOK B. FINAL QUARTER OF LAST YEAR ENDED ON WEAKER NOTE THAN WOULD HAVE HOPED l. EACH REVISION OF 4TH QUARTER GNP DOWNWARD A. LAST REVISION .7% - PUNDITS - DISAPPEAR AllOGETHER 2. ANNUAL BASIS 1985 +2. 2% AFT ER MUCH STRONGER (+6.61) 1984 3. 4TH QUARTER WEAKNESS LED SOME TO CONCLUDE THAT WE RE HEADED BACK INTO A RECESSION 1 Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 3 C. INDEED, SOME OF THE EARLY 1986 NUMBERS, PARTICULARLY FEBRUARY CONTINUING INTO APRIL, LITTLE ON THE SOFT SIDE 1. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE A. JANUARY/FEBRUARY - DOWN A BIT IN MARCH 2. RETAIL SALES - WEAK - ESSENTIALLY FLAT IN 1ST Q. - DOWN IN MARCH 3. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION - FELL IN MARCH - 2ND CONSECUTIVE MONTHLY DECLINE - 1ST SINCE LATE 1984 4. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS - FELL IN BOTH FEBRUARY AND MARCH - DECLINE IN NON-DEFENSE ORDERS IN LATEST MONTH QUITE SHARP 5. BUT DESPITE THESE NUMBERS - PRELIMINARY GNP REPORT FOR 1ST Q. +3.2% A. ARIIHMETIC INVOLVED - STILL POSITIVE DIRECTION Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 4 III. AND IMPORTANT TO KEEP THE INDIVIDUAL NUMBERS IN A BROADER PERSPECTIVE - ON A NATIONAL BASIS WE ARE OPERATING IN A VERY GOOD ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT A. DESPITE WHAT SEEMS I IKE MODEST GROWTH IN 1985, THE NATIONAL ECONOMY HAS PERFORMED WELL 1. AT THE END OF LAST YEAR, MAJOR MEASURES OF PERFORMANCE WERE AT RECORD LEVELS A. GNP IN 1982 DOLLARS - 10% ABOVE 1981 PEAK 8. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION - 11% ABOVE 1981 PEAK C. PAYROI L EMPLOYMENT - VERY STRONG - OVER 8 MI LL I ON HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS PEAK - VERY SIGNIFICANT GAINS ( 1) 1 OT AL EMPLOYMENT WI LL GO THROUGH 100 MILLION LEVEL EARLY THIS YEAR - CURRENT QUARTER (2) FOR VERY REAL AND HUMAN REASONS - FOCUS ON UNEMPLOYMENT Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 5 (3) BUT WE HAVE HAD 31 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS IN WHICH PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT HAS INCREASED (4) EMPLOYMENT PERSPECTIVE - EXPANSION NOT GIVEN FULL CREDIT D. WHlLE INCRFASE IN INFLATION SMALLEST SINCE 1967 2. NOW INTO THE 4TH·YEAR OF ECONOMIC CYCLE - GIVEN NUMBERS CLEARLY SHIFTED FROM RECOVERY TO EXPANSION A. ONLY 2 OTHERS SINCE WORLD WAR II HAVE LASTED THIS LONG 3. FURTHER, IN MANY RESPECTS THIS EXPANSION COMPARES VERY FAVORABLY WITH OTHER POST WORLD WAR II CYCLES A. IF YOU ANALYZE VARIOUS COMPONENTS OF ECONOMY B. FOR EXAMPLE, CAPITAL SPENDING LARGEST INCREASE IN CAPITAL SPENDING (l} FROM BOTTOM OF CYCLE (A) HAVE RANGED FROM 15 TO 25% IN PAST CYCLES Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 6 (B) THIS TIME ALMOST A 40% INCREASE (C) PRODUCTIVITY NOT CAPACITY EXPANSION - BODF S WFLL FOR OUR FUrURE COMPETITIVENESS B. GOOD NATIONAL PERFORMANCE 1. MASKS THE UNEVENNESS A. AMONG GEOGRAPHIC AREAS/AMONG INDUSTRIES B. HAS BEEN A VERY UNEVEN EXPERIENCE 2. PROBABLY GREATEST UNEVENNESS THAT WE'VE SEEN IN PASI FOUR DECADES 3. CLEARLY THIS IS NOT SIMPLY A BUSINESS CYCLE PHENOMENON A. WE HAVL UNDERGONE SOMF VERY FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE WORLDWIDE ECONOMY (1) SECULAR NOT CYCLICAL Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 7 C. FAIR COMMENT - ROCKFORD AREA HAS FELT THE FULL EFFECT OF THE UNEVENNESS 1. NOT UNEXPECTED, GIVEN HF.AVY DEPENOFNCE ON MANUFACTURING A. PARTICULARLY NON-ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT, PRIMARY METALS 2. UNEMPLOYMENT IN YOUR AREA REACHED VERY HIGH COMPARATiVE LEVELS IN DEPTH OF RECESSION - 1982 3. BUT YOU HAVF HAD SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT SINCE THE TURN IN ECONOMY A. SIZEABLE REDUCTION IN LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT B. STILL HIGHER THAN NATIONAL AVERAGE - BUT HUGE IMPROVEMENT 4. MAJOR PROGRAMS BY LOCAL COMPANJFS TO IMPROVE COMPETITIVENESS/PRODUCTIVITY - REDUCE COSTS 5. OTHER LOCAL EFFORTS - RESTRUCTURE ECONOMY A. RETRAINING PROGRAM - ROCK VALLEY COLLEGE Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 8 B. PUBLIC/PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP: COUNCIL OF 10O/CHAMBER OF COMMERCE; ROCKFORD LOCAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION TO DEVELOP THE GREATER ROCKFORD INDUSTRIAL PARK - SIGNS OF SUCCF.SS IV. SHIFTING BACK TO THE NATlONAL SCENE, LET ME BEGIN TO LOOK AHEAD - DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INDIVIDUAL 1ST QUARTER NUMBERS (AND STATISTICAL/SEASONAL ABERRATIONS MAY BE AI I AULT) - THE YEAR HAS STARTED OFF WELL - EVIDENCED BY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED 1ST Q. THAT I EARLIER NOTED A. THE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED EXPANSION ARE IN PLACE AND SOME RF.CF.NT DEVELOPMENTS ONLY ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITIES V. GIVEN THESE VERY RECENT DEVELOPMENTS - THE OUTLOOK FOR 1986 IS CERTAINLY POSITIVE Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 9 A. THE EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE 1. RFAL GNP OF AT LEAST 3% - EXACT NUMBER NOT AS IMPORTANT AS TENDENCY OR TREND A. ABOVE 2-1/4% FOR 1985 B. COULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER 2. HOUSING STARTS - WELL OVER l.7MM - 4TH YEAR 3. AUTOS - LESS THAN 1985 - OVER lOMM - 3RD YEAR 4. CAPITAL SPENDING PLANS BEING REVISED UPWARDS - EARLIER EXPECTATIONS FLAT TO DOWN - SAY 3/4% THIS YEAR A. PRETTY MUCH ACROSS BOARD - EXCEPT OIL INDUSTRY 5. STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE - PHENOMONAL A. INCREASED POTENTIAL CONSUMPTION 6. INFLATION EXPECTED TO RUN LESS THAN 3-1/2% OF LAST YEAR Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 10 A. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN ENERGY SECTOR COULD MEAN I NF LAT I ON LESS THAN THAT - 3% OR EVEN LOWER (1) PRICES AS MEASURED BY CPI DECLINED IN MARCH, FOLLOWING A DECLINE IN FEBRUARY (2) FIRST TWO-MONTH DECLINE IN OVER 20 YEARS 7. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. SHOULD RE A LITTLE LESS THAN 7% NATIONALLY VI. LEST YOU GET TOO COMFORTABLE - THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT RISKS - IMBALANCES - THREATENING A. WHETHER RE:ALl TY OF THE YEAR MATCHES EXPECTATIONS DEPENDS ON HOW WE DEAL WITH THESE IMBALANCES B. COMMON DENOMINATOR - INCREASE IN DEBT 1. ACROSS ALL SECTORS - PUBLIC AND PRIVATE 2. INCREASE IN DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL DEBT HIGHEST IN OVER 30 YEARS - RECORD LEVELS LAST TWO YEARS Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 11 C. lET ME START WITH THE KEY ELEMENT IN DEBT PICTURE - THF ONE THAT PERVADES VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING THAT I AM TALKING ABOUT - NAMELY, THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT 1. OBVIOUSLY A CURRENT AND TOPICAL ISSUE - LITTLE I CAN ADD 2. DEFICITS OF MAGNITUDES THAT HAVE BELN EXPERIENCING AT lHTS STAGF. OF THE ECONOMIC EXPANSION ARE UNPRF.CF.DENTED A. NOT Al ALL UNUSUAL TO RUN SIGNIFICANT DEFICITS AT THE TIME OF RECESSION OR OTHER ADVERSE EVENTS 8. BUT WE ARE NOW WELL INTO THE 4TH YEAR OF AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND WE HAVE BF EN RUNNING DEFICITS AROUND 4-1/2 - 5% OF THE GNP FOR 4 YEARS NOW 3. IN THE LONG HISTORY OF OUR COUNTRY WE HAVE ALWAYS MANAGED TO BRING OUR BUDGETS IN BALANCE Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 12 A. AFTER AN ADVERSE EVENT HAS PASSED THAT CAUSED THE DEFICIT - CONGRESS HAS TAKEN CORRECTIVE ACT ION TO BRING THE BUDGET IN BALANCE - RE.CORD IS CLEAR B. INDEED, IN THE EARLY 1830S CONGRESS NOT ONLY FlJI I.Y REPAID THE THEN OUTSTANDING TREASURY Df:81 - BUT RAN SURPI USES WHICH WERE DISTRIBUTED BACK TO THE STATES 4. IN THE LAI~. 1960S WE UNDERWENT AN IMPORTANT CHANGE - FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WE APPARENTLY DECIDED TO ACCEPT DEFICITS AS PART OF THE NORMAL OPE.RAT ION OF OUR SOCIETY - NOT AS A WAY OF DEALING WITH AN ADVERSE EVENT A. ENORMOUS POLITICAL/SOCIAL CHANGE (l) NOT SURE WE FULLY APPRECIATED THE MAGNITUDE Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 13 5. FEDERAL DEFICITS RESULT IN TREASURY DEBT A. RISING AT AN ALARMING RATE B. DEBT LEVEL IN 1975 $500 BILLION POINT - APPROACHED $2 TRILLION LAST YEAR - RISING INEXORABLY (1) APRIL 1 - APRIL FOOL'S DAY C. OVER $750 MILi ION EVERY WORKING DAY - SOME $3.9 BILLION PER WEEK 6. OF COURSE, INTEREST ON THE DEBT HAS TO BE PAID A. GROWINGLY WORRTFD ABOUT COMPOUND INTEREST SYNDROME (1) IS THIS AN ISSUE THAT HAS GOTTEN BEYOND OUR CONTROL? (7) [NTFRFST ON THE DE.Bl lS ASSUMING A MUCH LARGER POSl I ION IN !HE ANNUAL BUDGET - 10% IN FISCAL 1975, ALMOST 20% IN FISCAL 1985 Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 14 B. BUT, IMPLICATIONS OF CONTINUED HIGH FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICITS GO FURTHER (1) AT STAKE - WHOI F. ISSUE OF ALLOCATION OF SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT DOLLARS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE SECTORS D. TO SOME VERY LARGE EXTENT, THESE FISCAL DEFICITS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 1. AS A RESULT OF LARGE PURCHASES OF U.S. DEBT BY INTERNATIONAL MARKETS (JAPAN) PRESSURE ON U.S. INTEREST RATES HAS TO SOME EXTENT BEEN RELIEVED A. IF THERE IS A CHANGE IN SENTIMENT - MAY WFLL RE GOING ON RIGHT NOW - TREASURY FINANCING NEXT WFEK MAJOR TEST - WILL HAVE TO FINANCE DEF lCIT FROM DOMESTIC SOURCES B. HIGHER RATES THAN OTHERWISE (1) ECONOMIC EXPERIENCE MAY WELL BE DIFFERENT Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 15 E. SHIFTING FROM GOVERNMENT TO THE CONSUMER - CONSUMER INSTALLMENT DEBT HAS ALSO RISEN TO RECORD LEVELS RELATIVE TO DISPOSABLE INCOME 1. SOME MITIGATING CIRCUMSTANCES WHICH MODERATE THE SHEER MAGNITUDE OF NUMBERS A. BU l Pl:RSONAI DFBT LOADS HAVE BECOME VERY, VERY HEAVY 8; RAISES THE QUESTION AS TO THE SUSTAINABILITY OF CONSUMPTION AND THEREFORE THE ECONOMIC EXPANSION C. WILL CONSUMERS BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS DEBT IF PERSONAL INCOMES BEGIN TO FALL? F. CORPORATE DEBT HAS ALSO INCREASED VERY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS - RECORD INCREASES IN 1984/1985 1. EXACERBATFD RY LEV~RAGE BUYOUTS, MERGERS, TAKEOV~RS. AND ACQUISITIONS Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 16 2. EVEN MORE DISTRESSING IS THE RAPID NET RETIREMENT OF EQUITY THAT HAS RFLN TAKING PLACE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS 3. ON AN ABSOLUTE RAS IS CORPORATE AMER I CA HAS BEEN DECAPITALIZING ITSELF 4. AS A CONSEQUENCE, CORPORATE DEBT RELATED TO NET WORTH HAS INCREASED VERY SHARPLY G. CAN'T LEAVE THE DEBT ISSUE WITHOUT COMMENTING ON THE VERY LARGE EXTERNAL DEBT POSITIONS OF SOME OF THE LESSER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1. VERY DIFFICULT, PARTICULARLY SO FOR COUNTRIES THAT ARE DEPENDENT ON THE EXPORT OF Pt I ROLE UM PRODUCTS TO GENFRATE DOI LAR RESFRVES TO SERV 1CE THEIR DEBT 2. WORKING THROUGH THIS PROBLEM WTI I RE VL.RY CHAI.LENG ING A. M[XICO - HAS TO BE VERY WORRYING Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 17 H. AGAIN, THIS BUILDUP OF DEBT ACROSS ALL SECTORS OF OUR ECONOMY, NA1 IONAI LY AS WE.LL AS INTERNATIONALLY, IS OF GREAT CONCERN 1. lNTRODlJC.FD A DE.SIABILTZING ELEMENT VULNERABTI ITV OF THE DEBIORS TO SERVICE THE DEBT - MAINTAINING AN ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD ECONOMIC GROWTH IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT 2. MARGIN FOR ERROR VERY NARROW VII. CLEARLY -THESE IMBALANCES HAVE CREATED A DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT FOR MONETARY POLICY A. DEALING WI TH A COMBINATION OF IMBALANCES THAT WE HAVEN'T EXPERIENCED BEFORE 1. EITHER IN NUMBER OR IN MAGNITUDE B. OBJECTIVE OF MONETARY POLICY REMAINS THE SAME 1. CONTINUE PRtll,RFSS TOWARD PRICE STABILITY IN CONTEXT OF GROWING ECONOMY Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGF 18 2. OVERRIDING ASSIGNMENT AT IHF FED - KEl:.P THE EXPANSION GOING A. BUT IT CANNOT RF. AN EXPANSION FUELFD BY ESCALATING INFLATION EXCESSIVELY ACCOMMODATIVE MONETARY POLICY BUT IF WE WERE ro EXPERIENCE A RENEWED (1) RECESSION - THE IMBALANCES I CITED WOULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT C. CONSEQUENTLY, PRESSURES MAY WELL MOUNT 1. TO ENCOURAGE AN EVl:.N MORE RAPIDLY EXPANDING ECONOMY 2. WITHOUT OlJE CONCERN ABOUT LONGER TERM INFLATION POTENTIAL 3. FED WI LL COME UNDER VERY HEAVY PRESSURE TO MONETIZE OUR WAY OUT OF SOME OF THESE PROBLEMS Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 19 VIII. CONCLUSION A. SAID AT OUTSET - YEAR HAS STARTED WF.LL - WE ARE DEALING WITH A UNIQUE SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES - AND WE HAVE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY B. LET MF JUST REPEAT AND EMPHASIZE 3 ITEMS TO MAKE THE POINT EIRST 1. MASSIVE REDUCTION IN ENERGY PRICES - FELL OUT OF SKY A. GI-ASS MORE. fHAN 1/2 FULL - FULLY UNDERSTAND IMPACT B. BENFFlTS VERY POSITIVE AND PERVASIVE - NOT ONLY OUR ECONOMY, BUT WORLD ECONOMIES AS WELL C. VERY FAVORABLE IMPACT ON INFLATION D. GIVES FED MORE MANEUVERING ROOM - DECR~ASED INFLATIONARY CONCERNS Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGE 20 SECOND 2. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN INTEREST RATES - MEDIUM AND LONG TERM A. YIELDS ON 30 YEAR DOWN OVER 400 BASIS POINTS IN LAST YEAR - SOME 200 BASIS POINTS SINCE TURN OF THE YEAR B. 30 YEAR BOND' YIEI OtNG CLOSE TO 7-1/2% - YIELDS ON LONGER TERM MATURITIES LOWEST SINCE EARLY 1970S C. AGAIN, VERY PERVASIVE THROUGHOUT OUR ECONOMY - AND WORLD ECONOMIES REDUCED RATES PUT EXTFRNAL DEBTS OF LDCS (l) IN MUCH DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE (7) DOMESTICALLY - MORTGAGE REFINANCINGS - POWFRFUL EFF l CT ON CONSUMER SPENDING - MONTHLY PAYMENTS Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGF 71 THIRD 3 . CH ANGE I N VA I UE OF DOLLAR AG AI NS T DM AND YEN - ALMOST 35% SINCE THIS TIME LAST YEAR A. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT HAS OCCURRED THIS YEAR (1) TREMENDOUS PRICE REDUCTION - 35% B. ENORMOUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR OUR EXPORT SECTOR - WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SHOW UP IN NUMBERS - VERY, VERY BENEFICIAL FOR THE BELEAGUERED EXPORT ACTIVITIES - HAS TO BE VERY HELPFUL FOR ROCKFORD COMPANIES GIVEN EXPORT ORIENTATION C. BFfTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUPPLIERS TO DOMESTIC MARKETS - IMPACTED BY IMPORTS C. THUS WHAT HAS STARTED WELL SHOULD END WELL 1. MORFOVFR - IF W~ CAN DEAL WITH THESE IMBALANCES I'VE ENUMERATED - AND A STRONG ECONOMIC Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ROCKFORD 5/1/86 PAGF 22 ENVIRONMENT GREATLY FACILITATES MANAGING OUR WAY THROUGH THESE TERRIBLY DIFFICULT ISSUES 2. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE AT HAND FOR A CONTINUATION OF THIS FAVORABLE ECONOMIC EXPERIFNCE FOR QUITE SOME WHILE - AND THIS YEAR MAY WELL DEVELOP INTO THE TURNING POINT IN WHAT MIGHT JUST BE ONE OF THE MOST REWARDING ECONOMIC PERIODS OF THE PAST FEW DECADES D. ON THAT POSITIVE NOTE - CONCLUDE • • * * * Digitized for FRASER https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Silas Keehn (1986, April 30). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19860501_silas_keehn

@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_19860501_silas_keehn,
  author = {Silas Keehn},
  title = {Regional President Speech},
  year = {1986},
  month = {Apr},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19860501_silas_keehn},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}