Regional President Speech

'lilSI'1ct IT IS A V~RY SPECIAL HONOR FOR ME TO BE INVITED TO ADDRESS THIS MEETING ' DN THE SUBJECT OF MONETARY POLICY IN THE UNITED STATES. INDEED, IN VIEW OF THE DRAMATIC POLICY ACTIONS ANNOUNCED - A FEW WEEKS AGO BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE yl I VERY MUCH WELCOME THIS OPPORTUNITY TO DISCUSS THESE ACTIONS WITH YOU, AS WELL AS OTHER ISSUES AND PROBLEMS PERTAINING TO THE CONDUCT OF U.S. MONETARY POLICY. FROM MY PERSPECTIVE AS PRESIDENT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KA~SAS CITY DURING THE PAST FOUR YEAR MY ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE PREVIOUS DECAD , THERE IS NO DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT THE MOST SERIOUS PROBLEM FACING MONETARY POLICY TODAY-~IN BOTH THE UNITED STATES AND ABROAD--IS THE CHRONIC INFLATIONARY ~-------------------- ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOW GRIPPING THE ECONOMIES OF THE ENTIRE FREE As WORLD. A CONSEQUEN £F OF THIS INFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT, THE NORMAL FLOW OF FINANCIAL SAVINGS INTO PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT HAS BEEN SERIOUSLY REDUCED, ) ECONOMIC GROWTH AND JOB OPPORTUNITIES H~E DIMINISHED,/ AN o/ THE STABILITY OF THE INTE NAT! NAl MONETARY SYSTEM HAS BEEN PERIODICALLY THREATENED. IN SHARP CONTRAST TO ..­ ...... THE PERIOD OF THE 1930's, WHEN CHRONIC UNEMP LOYMENT WAS THE NUMBER ONE ECONOMIC PROBLEM, CHRONIC INFLATLON IS CLEARLY THE • NUMBER ONE ECONOMIC PROBLEM OF OUR DAY. -2­ As A CENTRAL BANKER, I FIND THIS SITUATION TO BE HIGHLY DIS­ TURB G, AFTER ALL, IT IS GENERALLY AGREED THAT THE MOST -F UND A­ RESPON SIBI LITY OF A CENTRAL BANK IS TO PROVIDE FOR THE CONTINUED SOUNDNESS AND STABILITY OF ITS NATION'S CURRENCY, BOTH DOMESTICALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY, IE TH S IS TR UE, HOWJ ER, ,t IT MUST BE CONCLUDED THAT CENTRAL BANKER SAHAVE NOT BEEN AS EFFEC­ TIVE AS THEY SHOULD BE IN COPING WITH THE INFLALTIONARY PROBLEM, IN TRYING TO RATIONALIZE THIS UNCOMFORTABLE CONCLUSION, IT IS VER~Y EASY TO COME UP WITH NUMEROUS OF THE ~NMONETARY C A US ~ INFLATION SPIRAL, IN THE UNITED STATES, FOR EXAMPLE, IT IS OFTEN CLAIMED THAT A LARGE PART OF THE INFLATION IS DUE TO ~XOGENOU?~ - UNCONTROLLABLE SHOCKS TO THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM--SUCH AS THE WOR LD­ CROP FAILU RES AND DEVALUATIONS THAT OCCURRED IN THE EARLY ~IDE 1970's, AND THE SIZABLE OIL PRICE INCREASES OF RECENT YEARS, IT IS ALSO ARGUED THAT THE- -REGU LATORY BURD EN Of GOY ER NMENT HAS BECOME SO Pg RVASIVE AS TO DISCOURAGE INNOVATION AND NEW INVEST­ M-E-NT WHICH, IN TURN, HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A SLOWDOWN IN PR ODUC­ .. TIVITY AND AN UPWARD RATCHETING IN UNIT LABOR COST, -3­ ON A MORE FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL, IT IS SAID THAT, BEGINNING IN THE MID-1960's, THERE WAS A MARKED U-PWARD rr&H IFT IN THE DEMAND FOR GOVERNME . VI CES ON A BROAD SOCIAL LEVEL. AND, AS PART OF - THAT SHIFT, THERE WAS A RENEWED EMPHASIS PLACED ON GOVERNMENT POLICIES DESIGNED TO ATTAIN FULL EMPLOYMENT--EVEN AT THE COST , OF INCURRING AN INCREASE IN THE DEGREE OF INFLATION. THE NET EFFECT OF THIS SHIFT IN THE ROLE AND EMPHASIS OF GOVERNMENTAL POLICIES WAS TO IMPART AN INFLATIONARY BIAS TO THE ECONOMY WHI CH ,~ ITIS CL A I ME D, THE FED ERA L RES ER V E , AS A PUB LI C INS TIT U­ TION, FOUND DIFFICULT TO RESIST IN ITS ENTIRETY. WHILE THESE AND OTHER NO~N~M~O~N~~~AW~~~~ OF INFLATION HAVE VARYING DEGREES OF APPEAL, IT IS, NONETHELESS, DIFFICULT TO IGNORE THE BASIC LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONE-Y­ AND PRICES. .. As MOST ECONOMISTS AGREE, AN EXPANSION OF MONEY AND CREDIT N EXCESS OF THE LONG-RUN OUTPUT POTENTIAL OF AN ECONOMY WILL INVARI­ c __________- - -~~ ABLY LEAD TO A RISE IN THE OVERALL PRICE LEVEL. THIS RELATION­ SHIP IS NOT NEW, OF COURSE,/ BUT ITS IMPORTANCE HAS BECOME IN­ CREASINGLY EMPHASIZED BY CENTRAL BANKERS IN THE CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY. IN THE UNITED STATES, AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS PUBLICLY ANNOUNCED ITS DESIRED GROWTH RATES ~NEY AHE~D;lsINCE OF AND CREDIT FOR THE YEAR 1975. THESE TAR­ ~EADILY GETED GROWTH RATES HAVE BEEN ALMOST LOWERED OUT OF A DESIRE TO GRADUALLY REDUCE THE RATE OF INFLATION. -4­ DESPITE THESE GOOD INTENTIONS, HOWEVER, THE ACTUAL GROWTH RATES OF MONEY AND CREDIT HAVE TENDED TO BE IN EXCESS OF OUR ES­ TABLISHED TARGETS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST HALF YEAR. I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT T~ESE EXCESSES IN MONEY GROWTH;I!0TH THIS YEAR AND LAST YEA~ WERE NEITHER INTENDED NOR DESIRED BY ANY MEMBER OF THE FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE (FOMC). RATHER, I BELIEVE THESE EXCESSES WERE THE DIRECT CONS OF THE INFLATIONARY SPIRAL ITSELF, WHICH AJi D OBSCURED THE VERY INFORMATIONAL ~ISTORTED THROUGH WHICH WE HAVE TRADITIONALLY CONDUCTED MONETARY POLICY. ONE INFORMATIONAL VARIABLE THAT CENTRAL BANKERS HAVE TRADI­ TIONALLY UTILIZED IS THE LEVEL OF NOMINAL INTEREST RATES. As A GENERAL RULE, RISING INTEREST RATES ARE TAKEN AS A SIGN OF RE- c ' STRAINT. ALSO, HIGH AND RISING INTEREST RATES ARE DEEMED CONSIS­ - TENT WITH TRYING TO CURB THE DEMAND FOR MONEY GRO WTH. IN TIMES OF RAMPANT INFLATION, HOWEVER 1' INTEREST RATES BECOME A VERY OOR - GUIDE FOR POLICY AND A VERY POOR INSTRUMENT FOR CONTROLLING MONEY GROWTH. THAT IS BECAUSE AN INFLATIONARY PREMIUM TENDS TO BE INCORPORATED INTO INTEREST RATES, WHICH MAKES IT EXTREMELY DIFF I CU L T TO KNOW WHAT, IFAN y, REST RAWTIS BEl NGAP PLI ED BY A HIGH LEVEL OF INTEREST RATES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THIS PROBLEM .. BECAME QUITE APPARENT IN THE UNITED STATES OVER THE PAST HALF YEAR WHEN--DESPITE HIGHER INTEREST RATES--MONEY GROWTH ACCELER­ ATED RAPIDLY. -5­ O~H~E~R~I ~NF~O~R~M~A~T~IO~~~~~~ES THAT HAVE BEEN DISTORTED BY THE INFLATION SPIRAL ARE THE VARIOUS CONC TS DF MO Y -- SELVES. WITH INTEREST RATES RISING DUE TO INFLATION, THERE HAS BEEN AN IMM ENSE CHANGE IN THE PRACTICES OF FINANCIAL INTERME­ DIARIES AND A VJRTUA L EXPLOSIQ.N IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ~R- MONEY SUBSTITUI ES. As A RESULT, MANY OF THE TRADITIONAL MEASURES OF MONEY/ NO LONGER PROVIDE THE SAME, INFORMATIONAL CONTENT AS THEY -- DID IN THE PAST; ,THEY SERVE AS A AS TO WHAT NOR~DO R~!~L ~IA~B~L~E _G~U~IDE POLIcl SHOULD BE. WITHOUT A DOUBT, SOME OF THE RAPID GROWTH IN MONEY IN THE UNITED STATES THIS YEAR CAN BE TRACED TO DIFFICUL­ TIES IN PROPERLY INTERPRETING THE DATA ON THE MONETAR Y AGGREGAIES. - A RESOLUTION OF THESE DIFFICULTIES, I SHOULD NOTE, IS NOW BEING INTENSIVELY EXAMINED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE. THESE AND OTHER FACTORS HAVE LED TO A MARKED INCREASE IN THE L , ~ GROWTH RATES OF MONEY AND CREDIT IN THE UNITED STATES OVER THE PAST HALF YEAR. AND, COMMENSURATE WITH THIS GROWTH IN MONEY, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES HAVE ACCELERATED AND AN INFLATIONARY PSY­ ... CHOLOGY HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. As A REACTION TO THESE ... DEVELOPMENTS, THE U.S. DOLLAR CAME UNDER VERY STRONG DOWNWARD « IN EXCHANGE MARKETS THIS FALL, THE PRICE OF GOLD SOARED P~ESSUB E ABOVE $400 AN OUNCE, AND SPECULATIVE ACTIVITY INCREASED SHARPLY IN OTHER COMMODITY MARKETS. QUITE CLEARLY, THERE BECAME A ~E~I' NEED FOR MUCH MORE FORCEFUL MEASURES OF MONETARY RESTRAINT. ~ ~IL~, r -6­ ON THE EVENING OF OCTOBER 6, THE FEDERAL RESERVE ANNOUNCED A SERIES OF FORCEFUL AND COMPLEMENTARY ACTIONS DESIGNED TO CURB THE GROWTH OF MONEY AND DAMPEN THE FORCES OF INFLATION, THESE ACTIONS INCLUDED: (1) AN INCREASE IN OUR DISCOUNT RATE~ (2) AN IMPOSITION OF MARGINAL RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON MANAGED LIABII 1­ , TIES OF MEMBER BANKS; AND (3) A CHANGE IN THE PROCEDURE BY WHICH WE CONDUCT MONETARY POLICY, UNDER THE NEW PROCEDURE, LESS EMPHASIS IS NOW BEING PLACED ON INTERE ST RA-TES AS A MEANS OF CONTROLLING MONEY AND ,GREATER EMP HASIS IS PLACED ON THE SUP­ PLY OF BANK RESERVES, THE RESPONSE TO THESE ACTIONS HAS BEEN BOTH DRAMATIC AND WIDESPREAD, SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES IN THE UNITED STATES HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY, AS THE SIZABLE DEMAND FOR CR£ DIT IS NOW BEING LIMITED BY THE AVAILABLE _SUPPLY OF CREDIT. ALSO, THE ........... ~ VALUE OF THE DOLLAR HAS IMPROVED IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS AND MUCH OF THE SPECULATIVE FROTH HAS GONE OUT OF THE C,~O~~~ Y MARKETS. IN SHORT, THE ACTIONS WE TOOK HAVE THUS FAR BEEN WELL RECEIVED AND SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE FINANCIAL COMMUNITY AND THE , GENERAL PUB LIC . OF THE THREE POLICY ACTIONS TAKEN, THE ONE RECEIVING THE MOST ATTENTION HAS BEEN OUR SHIFT TO A NEW OPERATING PROCEDURE TO CONTROL THE MONEY SUPPLY. IN SOME QUARTERS, THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE EUPHORIA ABOUT THIS SHIFT IN PROCEDURE, SOME PEOPLE, FOR EXAMPLE, HAVE HAILED IT AS BEING A COMPLETE VICTORY • FOR THE MONETARIST SC HO OL OF THOUGHT AND EVEN AS THE ULTIMATE ~ SOLUTION TO OUR MONETARY PROBLEMS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MANY OF THESE ASSESSMENTSy HAVE TENDED TO GO TOO FAR. , ,~~£ -7­ WITHOUT A DOUBT, RECENT EVENTS HAVE DEMONSTRATED CLEARLY THE NEED FOR A CHANGE IN OUR OPERATING PROCEDURE. PEGGING ~ . INTEREST RATE TO ACHIEVE OUR MONEY SUPPLY TARGETS WAS JUST NQT PRODUCING THE INTENDED RESULTS. THEREFORE, I AM VERY MUCH IN .... FAVOR OF THE CHANGE TO THE NEW OPERATING PROCEDURE, WHICH EM­ .. ..... PHASIZES BANK RESERVES, AND I ENTHUSIAST ICALLY SUPPORT IT. IT SHOULD BE WELL UNDERSTOOD, HOWEVER, THAT A RESERVE­ TARGETING PROCEDURE (G- THE UNITED STATETI IS NOT A SIM Eb E, RISK­ FREE fECHNIQUE. ON A VERY BASIC LEVEL, THE NEW PROCEDURE DOES . N O-T ASSURE THAT -O-U-R -T-A-R-G-E-T-ED- -G-R-O-W-T-H --RA-T-E­ OF MONEY WILL, IN FACT, BE APPROPRIATE FOR THE ECONOMY. NOR DOES IT RESOLVE THE - PROBLEM OF DETERMINING WHICH CONCEPT OF MONEY THE FEDERAL RESERVE SHOULD TRY TO, CQNTROL. ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS WILL STILL RE­ QUIRE CONSIDERABLE ANALYSIS AND FLEXIBILITY IN POLICY OPERATIONS. ON A MORE TECHNICAL LEVEL, WE FULLY RECOGNIZE THAT THERE CAN BE POTENTIAL SLIPPAGES BETWEEN OF BANK RESERVES AND THE ~ROWTH RATE OF MONEY SUPPLY. THESE SLIPPAGES MIGHT OCCUR FOR TWO REASONS. FI RST, OUR ABILITY TO CONTROL BANK RESERVES MAY NOT BE OVERLY PREC ISE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT RUN. AND, SECOND THERE MAY BE VARIABILITY IN THE MULTIPLIER RELATION­ L SHIP BETWEEN BANK RESERVES AND' THE MONEY SUPPLY. THE LATTER IS --=­ VERY II KEL Y TO BE TRUE IN THE VERY LARGE AND DIFFU U: BANKING SYSTEM THAT EXISTS IN THE UNITED STATES. A FURTHER CONSIDERA­ TION IS THAT IT IS NOT REASONABLE TO EXPECT THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO IGNORE ENTIRELY ON-GOING DEVELOPMENTS IN THE D CAPITAL ~ONEY ~ MARKETS ~ IN THl. F ~EIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS JUST TO RIGIDLY PURSUE ' A RESERVE-TARGETING PROCEDURE. -8­ THESE CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST, IT SEEMS TO ME, THAT NOT TOO .. MUCH SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM OUR SHIFT TO A NEW OPER­ T~O~~N, ATING PROCEDURE. MANY BASIC CONCEPT-U-AL AND TECHNI CAL PROBLEMS - STILL REMAIN UNRESOLVED. MOREOVER, PRECISE CONTROL OF THE MONEY - SUPPLY IS JUST NOT LIKELY TO ACHIEVED, ESPECIALLY OVER A B~ SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THUS, AN EVALUATION OF THIS NEW TECH­ NIQUE CAN ONLY BE MADE IN AN OBJECTIV E MA NNEB AFTER IT HAS i BEEN IN EFFECT FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. BESPITE THESE WORDS OF CAUTION ABOUT OUR NEW PROCEDURE TO CONTROL THE MONEY SUPPLY, WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE NEW TECHNIQUE--ALONG WITH OUR OTHER RECENT ACTIONS--OFFERS GREAT PROMISE IN GUR) BATTLE AGAINST INFLATIO. WHILE tIT IS TRUE T,HAT U.S. THE ECONOMY MAY EXPERIENCE A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF ADJUSTMENT.:*­ OUR RECENT ACTIONS WERE TAKEN WITH LONGER-RUN OBJECTIVES IN MIND. To THE EXTENT WE CAN REDUCE THE GROWTH RATE OF MONEY TO MODERATE PROPORTIONS, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS ~ , WILL BE DIMINISHED, THE HIGH LEVEL OF INTEREST RATES WILL SUBSIDE, AND CONF IDE C£ IN THE PURCHASING POWER OF THE DOLLAR WILL BE RESTORED. -9­ AM SUFFICIENTLY REALISTIC, HOWEVER, TO BELIEVE THAT OUR BATTLE AGAINST INFLATION HAS ON LY JU S GUN. INDEED, EVEN THOUGH THE ACTIONS WE HAVE TAKEN HAVE BEEN BOTH DfiAMAT tC AND - A. FORCEFU1 , IT IS RATHER SIMPLISTIC TO VIEW OUR CHANGE TO~NEW LAA-O~J OPE RAT I NG PRO CE D U R EA S THE SOL E SO LU TI 0 N TOT HE PRO BL E M 0FIN- - FLATIO Nl. THE INFLATIONARY BIAS OF OUR ECONOMY­ AN oI THE ECONO­ MIES OF OTHER COUNTRIES, TOO--IS A VERY DEEP-ROOTED PROBLEM. IT IS LODGED IN THE BASIC POLITICAL AND PH IL OSOPHIC TH OU GHT THAT INFLUENCED OUR ECONOMIC SYSTEM DURING THE PAST TWO H~S DECADES. THUS, THE BATTLE AGAINST INFLATION PROMISES TO BE VERY LONG AND ARDUOUS. As AN ABSOLUTE PREREQUISITE FOR OUR BATTLE '~~~-i T ~ TO BE SUCCESSFUL, I BELIEVE CENTRAL BANKERS fM UST MORE EFFECTIVE JOB THAN WE HAVE IN THE PAST. IN SHORT, WE CAN NO LONGER BE UNWILLING PARTICIPANTS IN THE INFLATIONARY PROCESS. To ASSURE THAT WE WILL BE MORE EFFECTIVE, I BELIEVE OUR POLICIES MUST BE GUIDED BY THE FOLLOWING PRINCIPLES. - I. EMPHASIS SHOULD BE GIVEN TO A FIRM AND RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY STANCE. By ITSELF, A BETTER TECH­ NIQUE TO CONTROL MONEY IS NO ASSURANCE THAT THE RIGHT GROWTH RATE OF MONEY WILL, IN FACT, BE SOUGHT. WHAT IS RE QU IRED TO CORRECT INFLATION· IS A SIGNIFI­ CANTLY LOWER EXPANSION OF MONEY AND CREDIT. ­ ~ t2d4f;i(~ - ~ ~~. < - I -10­ 2. THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A RESTRICTIVE MO NE TARY POLICY -- MUST BE HIGHLY CREDIBLE IN THE EYES OF THE_PUBLIC. ---------------' IN ANY VENTURE, IT IS SELF-DEFEATING TO MORE PROMIS~ THAN IS DELIVERED. SO, TOO, IN CENTRAL BANKING. THUS, TO BE CREDIBLE, AN ANTI-INFLATIONARY POLICY MUST ACTUALLY ACHIEVE A SIGN IFI CANTLY LOWER GROWI H RATE OF MONEY AND CREDIT. L 3. FINALLY, AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY, RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICIES MUST BE FOLLOWED IN A CQNSISTJ NT MANNER. ALL TOO OFTEN, JRESTRICTIVE POLICIES ARE , PUT INTO PLACE ONLY FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AT THE PEAK OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE--WHEN FIGHTING INFLATION IS A POPULAR CAUSE. FOR THE fl EST OF I HE BUSINESS HOWEVER, THESE POLICIES ARE Q[LlN CY~ E, QUICKLY ABANDONED--IN BOTH THE DOWNTURN AND IN THE - SUBSEQUENT UPTURN. THE NET RESULT IS THAT POLICIES HAVE AN EXPANSIONARY BIAS MOST OF THE TIME, WHICH DOES MUCH TO EXPLAIN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE INFLA­ TIONARY PROBLEM. THEREFORE, IT FOLLOWS THAT AN EFFECTIVE MONETARY POLICY WILL NEED TO ADOPT A RESTRICTIVE STANCE CONSIST ENTLY THROUGHOUT THE BUSINESS CYCLE. -11­ THE AD... HERENCE TO THESE PRINCIPLES OF MONETARY ): MANAGEMENT, I BELIEVE, WILL ENABLE US TO ACHIEVE SIGNIFI­ CANT PROGRESS IN CURBING OUR CHRONIC INFLATIONARY PROBLEM. THE TASK AHEAD, HOWEVER, PROMISES TO BE BOTH LONG ANQ DIFFICULT AND SEVERELY CHALLENGING. NONETHELESS, RECENT c; ,-­ AI"lTI-INFLATIONARY ACTIONS TAKEN BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE SHOULD SERVE TO FORCEFULLY U \'!P5R S CORf OUR DESIRE TO RI~E ~AND MEET THAT CHALLENGE SUCCESSFULLY. IN SUMMARY, WE IN THE UNITED STATES HAVE SET UPON A NEW COURSE UNDER A NEW CHAIRMAN OF THE CENTRAL BANK. WE ARE NOT UNMINDFUL OF THE POTENTIAL RISKS TO OUR ECONOMY IN THE SHORT RUN NOR ARE WE UNMINDFUL THAT IT IS A POPULAR COURSE AT THE MOMENT BOTH WITHIN GOVERNMEN1J,i PUBLIC~UTy:N,.y AS WELL AS THE FINANCIAL COMMUNITY AND THE NOT BE SO WHEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SLOWS, UNEMPLOYMENT RISES Ar\ID THE NATIONAL ELECTION PROCESS UNFOLDS. IF, HOWEVER, WE HAVE CHOSEN THE PROPER TECHNIQUE WITH WHICH TO GUIDE U. S. MONETARY POLICY, I BELIEVE THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS THE ~QL\/F TO CARRY FORWARD A POLICY THAT WILL PROVIDE GREATER L O NG RUN S TABILITY IN DOMESTIC MATTERS AND AS A RESULT WILL MAKE OUR CON:TRIBU­ - TION TO STABILITY WORLDWIDE. ----

J. Roger Guffey (1979, November 14). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19791115_j_roger_guffey

@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_19791115_j_roger_guffey,
  author = {J. Roger Guffey},
  title = {Regional President Speech},
  year = {1979},
  month = {Nov},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19791115_j_roger_guffey},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}