Regional President Speech

Prepared by K.R. Bopp as a rough draft of a speech for T. B. McCabe m t m m mu omm l to deliver at commencement exercises ‘on 5/22/50 at Dover, Del. Graduation - A Time of Stock Taking Graduation is an appropriate tine to p&uee and survey the road over which ve have ease sad the direction in vhich ve should stove froa here. In a demooracy, It is particularly appropriate that ve consider not only ourselves as individuals hut also as a part of society. The development of our society can conveniently be divided into material and spiritual forces, I propose, therefore, to analyse the implications for us today of developments in these two areas during the first half of the century. B. Material Expectations and Achievements To those of us who have lived through thia half century, or et leaat the greater part of it, and have gradually absorbed its increasing material offerings into our everyday living, the nature of the advance that has been Bade since 1900 is seldom noticed as the spectacular thing it really has been. If one could stand apart from his times, however, sad coepare this period vith others of equal length - is the United States or elsewhere - achievements in the production of goods and services would quickly be seen as quite unique in the world* s history. The economic environment in which business and banking has been carried on hss been one of great technological change and unprecedented physical expanaion. Furthermore, the magnitude of this expansion was wholly unexpected. Henry L. Ellsworth, Cowsissioner of Patents, expressed the expectations in this field a century ago (report to Congress of Jsnuary 31, 1344) in these wordmt •The advancement of the arts, from year to year, taxes our credulity and eeema to presage the arrival of that period when human improvement must end.* Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis While the fast of material progress is obvious, its precis* measure­ ment ortr loaf ptriodi of U m Is impossible. The Boat important changes in our product!vs plant hare not bean thoae which merely permitted us to do things faster and bigger and in larger quantity, but those which here given us entirely new things end have changed standards and modes of living. Material progress, in other words, has been qualitative ae veil os quantitative. It would sees to be relatively easy to measure gains in the production end consumption of basic commodities such as wheat or coal. let the bare statistics, while significant for those particular goods, are hardly meaningful for broader considerations such as esoertalnmaat of a general rate of progress without e great deal of sub­ jective modification. In the case of wheat, for instance, the ability to trans­ port and preserve fresh fruits and vegetablee have changed hebits of diet, end wheat plays s different and, perhaps, & smaller role. Petroleum and gas have altered the dominant position of coal as an industrial fuel, end vhat has hap­ pened in coal over the last fifty years is, therefore, not e true reflection of general industrial development. For many very important goods - radio snd electronic equipment, for instance * the record would bo nonexistent for 1900 snd might not begin until a very fow years ago. In cos attempt at a rough over-all meaeuro, Professor Simon lusneta has estimated that the value of net national product (adjusted for changes ia the price level) increased by over 143 per cent from the decade 189A-1903 to the decade ending in 1938. Since that time, other figure a indicate the possi­ bility of a further increase of roughly 50 per cont. It is st once clear that even if such statistics could bo comprehen­ sive and oould bo adjusted in each a way »a to taice account of new products sad services and a changing node of life, they would bo incomplete and iaeonclnsivo Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis *• * measure of material pro|r«a$ unless we alto took into account the number of people participating in the productioa process tad the number dividing up the product. For, ultimately, our progress aust be appraieed in teres of vhat it has teeat for the individual consuner. Minimus: support of a proving popule— tion is, in itMlff something of an achievement for an economy, even if the individual producer barely makes enough for the subsistence of his family. Suah a situation prevails in some parts of the vorld, though total output there M y be increasing • This was so far froa being the case in the United ft* tee during the first belf of the twentieth century that to Americans the social attitudes, institutions, sad living conditions of a subsistence economy seemed to exist only in a world of unreality along with l&rsan *tori«s end South Fee Zaland teehnioolor movies. In the United States, the natural course of events, interrupted for a relatively brief though shocking period during the Great Depression of the 'thirties, seemed to be *‘ver-increasing worker productivity and eveivimcreesing per capita consumption. The population of the United States has doubled since 1900. This vss the result of s large natural rate of increase end, in the eerly years of the century, a high rate of immigration. In the decede ending in 1910, for instance, more than hslf of the increase in population vas due directly to a record influx of Immigrants seeking new noses in s new, free lend. Immigration almost stopped in the 'thirties, but not before it had had a profound effect on rapidly expanding American industry. As population grev and industry developed, the United States became a predominantly urban civilisation. In 1900 most Asericaas lived in the aoua- try. By 1920 this vas no loader the case. In 1950 nearly 60 per eemt of our population lives in cities end towns, sad aoat of these people live withia the crowded ■metropolitan arees* adjacent to a cosparetively few large cities. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Population in tbl Third Fed*nl R«»«rr* district, &i in taay of tha oidw popa« lation e«Qt*n of tho toot, was already urbanised in 1900. In such «rcu, population ht< become «f*n aort concentrated, though it has not grove so rapidly as in thoao part* of tho country vhieh wore 1 ee* fully developed. Family unita of 1950 arc e*&aller than too** of a generation or two ago and, although marriage end birth rates jumped considerably during the war and post-war years of the 1940* a, the trend in the rate of population growth during tho an tire half century haa been slightly downward. These facta neve in portent implications for the future, but they should not obscure the dominant population treed of tho past fifty years - that of continuous end, for most periods, rapid growth. That growth has bean of such nature that it, too, has made for quali­ tative changes in oar economy in addition to mere changes of degree. Tho dif­ ference between tho populstion of 1930 and 1950 does not consist solely in a change of gnserationa or in varying national origins. It is more important that largo concentrations of people ma*e for a type of living and for produc­ tive capacities that are different fros those possible for small groupa and a snail wortc-force. The labor foree - that portion of the populstion available for gain­ ful employment - haa increaaed along with population. Toong people snd old people are now a smaller proportion of the wonting populstion than formerly, bat between 1900 snd the present time the percentage of women who wort outside their own hones haa grown. As the trend toward urban living implies, tho pro­ portion of tho labor force engaged in agriculture, foreetry, and fishing has declined drastically - fro* nearly 40 per cent at the tun of the century to well under 20 per cent now. Manufacturing has increased its she re of tbs labor force somevnat as wo have come to depend more snd more on mechanical devices Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for both production end everyday living, end this it nov the largest single group* TnofportitioBi towmlcation, and trade employment, as veil ?s pro­ fessions! services, have become increasingly important. But perhaps the aost significant coamentary on the change that h&s taken place in the nature of production and on the growing complexity of our mode of life in these United States during the last fifty y&ars has been the expanding proportion of labor in clerloal occupations. Only 2.5 per cent of the labor force vas in this category in 1900. Today, perhaps as many as 10 per csnt - 6 million workers - help keep the economy's accounts and records. The inorease in the number of people at vork hss been ouch greater then that in total working tins. In 1900, the ten-hour day, six-day week was standard. Today the average work-week is not ssuch over 40 hours, even if the longer vork-weak of agriculture is taken into account. A Twentieth Century Fund survey estimates, in fact, that although the rate of production had elinbed by 30 per cent between 1910 and 1940 the total man-hours worked hardly ever exceeded that of the former year except for war y*ars. This is simply another way of saying that the productivity of the American worker hss been greatly increased. The introduction of new processes and massive investment in plant and machinery - on the farm snd in officea as well as in mines and factories, the technique of nass production, scientific management, and work rationalisation, all developed in this half century - have made it poeaible for us to work saieh lass and produce much more. Increases in output per man-hour snd per worker varied oonaidarably among industries snd trades, with the greatest gains being made In manufacturing and smaller ones in construction and “white collar” trades. On the average, it is estimated, output per man-hour h&s been increaaing at a rate of slightly Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis nader 2 per emt * y*»r. Actually, the rate has not been steady. The Intro­ duction of new techniques has made for periods of accelerated improvement, end progress sometimes has been interrupted by war »nd adverse economic c editions. But confidence in our physical ability continually to produce more, sore effi­ ciently f for no re people has never waned. The record of production in the United States during the first half of the twentieth century continued to heap scorn upon the gloony Malthusian prophecy of a century before. The basic implication of this phenonenal material achievement for ns today is dear. As individual a ve nust develop flexibility and the capacity to adjust rapidly to further neterial changes* 1 evolutionary cnanges nay be expected even in thoae areas which, relatively have scarcely been touched. Let ae cite a specific illustration. Vi thin the laat year a national sagas ine pictured on its cover an artist's conception of the automatic digital computer, an electronic calculating machine of the greatest complexity, that solves mathematical problems and their physical counterparts heretofore considered insoluble. Such a machine contains hundreds, perhaps thouaaada, of vacuum tabes, each of vhich operates hundreds of thousands of tines a second in its work as a computing unit. Numerical data and operational orders are put into the machine by means of a kinc of teletypewriter. The machine stores this in­ formation in its "memory*, consisting of mercury tubes or magnetic tape. Once startedv the machine recalls the uunbers assembled in its memory, in the se­ quence dss&anded by the orders its operators h*ve given it. It puts the results of itttenaediste calculations back into its memory for future use. It can make simple comparisons of numbers and undertake alternate courses of action depend­ ing upon the results. When the computation is finished, the naehine types the answer end its Err**1* operators reel it off the ticker-tape, k half-century Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ago this vaa tht staff of which fantastic adTantort stories were acde; »Tia today it seeae a Xittlo unreal to aost of us - unreel and soaevhat frighter.- lag. C. Spiritual Expectations and Achievements Tho atopy is quite different if we rsore from tho material to tho spiritual rosla. As Profeasor Robert Warren of the Institute for Advenced Study has written: "The nineteenth century vas an age of faith. It Relieved in its ideas, it believed in its institutions, it beliered in itself. Beoauao it was sa age of faith, it was an age of airacles. Because it vas an age of airaolos, it was an ago of pride - pride in its actual achievaffents and in its ultimate powers. In retrospect, at least, the literature of the early years of ths current century gives an iapression not so auch of coxplaeency as of fUlfillaoat, of ultiaate or penulti&ate realisation, of arrival at or Just outs ids a desired haven. * You say recall that there vas no sir of sad­ ness but only one of fulfilment in the quotation I read you froa the 1844 report of tho Cotmissioaer of Patents. In contrast, the perfection of that incredible instrument - the stoaic boab - did not strike the people of the orld oriaarily with admiration for ths achievement but with fear of the iaplications. The rasing of Hiroshima with a single stosic boab highlighted the urgent necessity of preventing ths aastery of our physical world fro* leading to our destruction. People in ell walks of life suddenly realized th.-t the fundamental iasue arises not froa tho recalcitrsncs of nature but trcm nan's inhumanity to aaa. To asny this osms with tho shock of s new idea, but it should not have surprised anyone who actually has read his Bible. Persons of profound insight, such as poets and philosophers - whether by reason of intuition or intellect - have been Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis emphasising it for centuries. The calm u n n n o # with which the nineteenth century fsced the future has given vty to alternating personal moods of unreasoning kope snd ecru ally unreaaoning despair. The atosie bomb is but one illustration of the faet that improvement in town relationships is our most urgent problem. Hitler’s setsare of power in Gemeny ie another. Why did this happen in a country vhose educational ays ten bed long been oonsidered one of the best - if not the very beat - in the vorld. The educational failure evidently was not in technicel training. The seeds of decay were sow when Germans - especially the teachers - began to believe snd net on whet they read into Hletssche1 a Zmmthustr* and Beyond Good and M l . Onee e people devote themselves to more efficiency in sehierlng goals without reference to choosing among goals on the basis of moral values, such ae justice end dignity of the individual, they are lost - easy dupes of destegoguee. 2. Conclusions My conclusionare not «t all novel. I an not sure I have presented then convincingly. It say be that conviction cones only with direct personal, not nerely vicarious, experience. 1 must confess that the conclusions mean nere to no and I bold then more firmly today than twenty yeare ago. In part they are negative* *e cannot tru»t &a guide a on society's great adventure either those who would have us play the fringes rather than wrestle with the reel meaning snd significance of life or those wno would have us sacrifice individual liberty and freedom of mind and conacienee. I cannot express the positive conclusions better than by quoting fron Goethe's Faust. The first quotation ia from the very first soenet Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis *Vhat you hfcve inherited fro® your forebears, Xou BEtt&t M n in order to k&jte it your own.” (lines 682-683) The second is aaong Faust's very last words. Faust calls it "the last conclusion of wisdom*s •Only he deserves freedom - a© indeed life - Vho dally sa»t achieve it anew." (lines 11,575-11 #576) i/2d/50 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Karl R. Bopp (1950, May 21). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19500522_karl_r_bopp

@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_19500522_karl_r_bopp,
  author = {Karl R. Bopp},
  title = {Regional President Speech},
  year = {1950},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19500522_karl_r_bopp},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}