Regional President Speech

P H I L A D E L P H I A C H A P T E R O F T H E A M E R I C A N S T A T I S T I C A L A S S O C I A T I O N The Philadelphia Chapter of the American Statistical Associ­ ation will hold a meeting in the Christian Association Building, 36th and Locust Streets, on Friday, May 19, 19^4 at 6:30 p.m. Our topic for the evening is: ’’POST-WAR INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY AND EMPLOY? *ENT" Introductory speaker: (if calendar will permit) Mr. C. A. Sienkiewicz, Vice-President Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Principal Speaker: Dr. Karl Bopp, Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia This timely and increasingly important topic is a fitting one for our final meeting this year. Both speakers are eminently qualified to present this topic as they are currently engaged in research work covering the above subject for this area with Mr. Sienkiewicz as Chairman and Mr. Bopp as Vice-Chairman of the Research Committee, Committee for Economic Development. Mr. Leonard A. Drake, Regional Business Consultant, U. S. Department of Commerce, will lead off in the discussion with some observations and questions directed to the principal speaker. The final meeting will include the installation of new officers. The price of the dinner is $1.50. Non-members are cordially invited to attend. Your prompt reply on the enclosed notification card will be sincerely appreciated, Benedict Saurino, Manager Statistical Research Division Sun Oil Company Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis POST-WAR INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY EMPLOYMENT by Karl R. Bopp Address aelivered before Philadelphia Chapter American Statistical Association Christian Association Building 36th and Locust Streets Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Friday, May 19, 1944 6;30 p.m. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis POST-WAR INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT Introduction . Leo*. *o<M sA»*«* 1* Promised Leon Henderson 2. Promised CAS ^ ^ ^ _ £_<~_ 3» Newsman but the same topic - would not have chosen voluntarily 4* "In 1943 they rationed gas. They rationed shoes, too, ana butter and jam and jelly. Hens' eggs were scarcer than hens' teeth. And lots of men with shaving mugs couldn't find brushes to shave them with." No rationing on post-war planning. Zero in arithmetic 100 in post-war planning 5» Endless variety of plans, programs, and predictions a. C.E.D. goal - not over If mil. unemployed b. War Manpower Commission - 8 mil. c. Julius Hirsch - 10-12 mil. d. Leon Henderson - 16 mil. e. Senate Mji&tary Affairs Subcom. - 19 mil. f. Some labor leaders - 30 mil. 6. National and local conditions 7* Long-run and transitional periods Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Functioning of the national economy A. General statement 1. Gross production and gross income 2. Income - consumption and saving 3* Saving, offset to saving, and hoarding B. The magnitude involved 1. Wartime expansion a. Labor force b. National production - lEEse inflation 2. Post-war problem - long run Maintaining high level of employment (552 mil.) + 2 mil. unemployed + 1.9 mil* armed forces and high level of gross national product - say,$175 bil. (1943 $)• How to fill the gap resulting from reduc­ tion in military expenditures from $81 bil. to $6 bil. with consumption already at a high level. And with constant technological advance. How to expand consumption and/or investment. a. Consumption - usually considered intractable Income and retail sales Durable goods up, My, $20 billion Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Is consumption intractable? Automobile industry - travel and vacations Price reductions Income increases b. Investment - offsets to saving Estimate of $30 bil. savings with national income of $150 bil. - 20% Greatest net new capital formation hot over 12 per cent *of national income. Policies to increase investment and consumption 1« Fiscal and monetary policies To maintain demand at appropriate level a. Budget (1) Taxation (a) Progressive income and inheritance taxation (b) Simple» so can adjust rates only (c) Current collection (2) Expenditures (a) Ordinary outlays regular Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis "Let the surplus public works serve as monuments to our lack of imagination and the low level of our public morals I" b. Monetary policies Coordination of all agencies having monetary policies ***** General instruments Selective instruments 2« Flexibility in qf price-wage structure a. Control of monopoly in all areas 3* Appropriate climate a. Incentives to expand Transitional aspects 1. A time pattern - aspects merge into each other a. To the end of the European war - 1944 b. From then to end of Pacific war - 1945 c. Retooling and reconversion - 1946 d* Restocking or catching up - 1947-48 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 5 - e. The long pull - 1948 on 2. Characteristics of these periods i. ,(WV ^ -s' yn I* (f o'j II. The local situation A. The local C*E»D. B* The labor force report Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ñ G 0^ /•«*** r . -“7 rt» ■ i ~'* , • // Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Karl R. Bopp (1944, May 18). Regional President Speech. Speeches, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19440519_karl_r_bopp

@misc{wtfs_regional_speeche_19440519_karl_r_bopp,
  author = {Karl R. Bopp},
  title = {Regional President Speech},
  year = {1944},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Speeches, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/regional_speeche_19440519_karl_r_bopp},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}