Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC October 1, 1999 SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Personal Income and Outlays ............... Consumer Sentiment ................ . .......................... ...................... ........ M otor Vehicles ............................ .... ... ............... Sales of New Homes ................. ............................. 1 1 .4 5 National Association of Purchasing Management's Survey .................. 6 Construction Expenditures .............. .............................. 7 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ................................ 2 University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of Consumer Attitudes ...................................... 3 Summary of Survey of Purchasing Managers for Industrial Firms ............. 8 New Orders of Durable Goods ....................................... 11 Tables New Construction Put in Place .................. ................... 12 Charts Purchasing Managers ............................................... Purchasing Mangers' Index ................. 9 ........................ 10 THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables Selected Financial Market Quotations ................. Commercial Bank Credit ............................................ ................ 13 14 SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Personal Income and Consumer Spending Personal income and outlays. Total nominal personal income rose 0.5 percent ($39.1 billion) in August, following a 0.2 percent ($16.8 billion) gain in July. Wage and salary disbursements increased 0.6 percent ($25.2 billion) in August-a bit faster than data on production workers hours and wages for the month would have suggested. Proprietors' income and rental income both rose in August following declines in July, while most other components of personal income posted gains in August that were about in line with recent averages.1 Personal tax and nontax payments fell in August owing to a tax rebate in Minnesota, and prices rose moderately. As a result, real disposable personal income also increased 0.5 percent in August. Real personal consumption expenditures rose 0.6 percent in August, following a small gain in July. Outlays for durable goods jumped 2.8 percent, boosted by a surge in spending for motor vehicles. 2 Purchases of furniture also rose in August, and real spending on computers jumped nearly five percent after two months of relatively weak sales. Real expenditures for nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent as outlays for apparel, gasoline, and a host of "other nondurable goods" posted increases while spending for food was unchanged. Real expenditures for services increased 0.3 percent in August, reflecting gains in personal care, personal business, medical care, and recreational services. In contrast, spending fell for air, bus, and rail travel. After incorporating the expected revision to motor vehicle spending, today's data imply slightly higher real PCE growth in the third quarter than we had written down in the September Greenbook. Consumer sentiment. According to the final report, the Michigan Survey Research Center index of consumer sentiment rose 2-3/4 index points in September, pushing it toward the high end of the range recorded so far this year. Both the current and expected conditions indexes moved up last month after having dropped a bit in August. Improvements in expectations of future 1. Farm subsidy payments boosted these components in June, and the removal of the payments in July pulled income down for the month. 2. The BEA does not have motor vehicle registration data in hand when they make their first monthly estimate of the allocation of light vehicle sales between consumers and businesses. Given the confidential data we (but not BEA) receive from motor vehicle manufacturers, we think that BEA's current numbers for August overstate sales to consumers and understate sales to businesses. We expect these numbers to be revised in subsequent releases. -2REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (Percent change from the preceding period) 1999 1998 Q1 Q4/Q4 PCE Durables Motor vehicles Other durable goods Nondurables Gas and oil Clothing and shoes Other nondurables Services Energy Non-energy Housing Household operation Transportation Medical Recreation Personal business Brokerage services Other 1999 Q2 June July Aug. --- Monthly rate --- - Annual rate - 5.3 6.7 4.8 .4 .1 .6 13.2 12.9 9.7 .6 -. 7 2.8 15.1 11.8 -.6 23.4 8.2 10.7 .3 .7 -2.3 .5 5.5 1.0 4.7 2.9 6.9 4.4 9.5 -.4 29.2 6.2 2.8 .5 3.8 2.8 .3 .8 .4 .3 .0 -1.0 .7 -.1 .4 .6 1.2 .2 4.0 4.1 4.7 .4 .3 .3 -4.6 4.4 2.4 14.9 3.7 2.9 15.2 4.3 2.3 1.7 .3 .2 .4 .3 .2 -. 0 .3 .2 6.5 2.7 3.0 9.9 6.0 17.1 6.8 6.9 3.2 2.0 12.4 5.4 35.3 1.0 8.8 3.5 2.9 12.8 7.7 32.3 1.6 .4 .8 .3 1.1 -.5 -5.5 .9 .5 -.1 .3 1.2 .1 .1 .2 .5 .0 .1 1.1 .3 .3 .7 Note. Derived from billions of chained (1992) dollars. Consumer Confidence Index 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 lnm o maom rMM rl -I rvi 0o 0D * 4- - i- I 0( 00) r- N i - Cl 0 omm i-n '.4 a * e m MM 1"r-o cin i-W- MM i n OSr Ch3 moin Ch m O ** i 0o ri 0% o4 rM O * *4 * O0 0 -o 01 mN 1a 0i- 0 0 n* M .14 M "i ** CN r 0 o N mm l 4 a 0 to 0 @o o% H w r- rI SMM mo -Im ** 0 1-I MN ** 00U m o Mn * 4:) r-I .- I; Mm 0 E4 0 -I m I-I l MM -In , -1 0> * yi eo ok o\M oE Ia r inMM Ol W) ly% Co mom MN lo M onC or- o I: 0 i m W- ol m 0 '-4 v-gO Ml mN I 'oi- l mN d an 0 -I 4. O 0 p aH 4) I rO '00 0 3A mf -i -I MMo meom rr m(nN -il i-i mrco m rW n e mO oao 0 oO0mo $4i a44*4 0 i-h o.r o~.0 <m 01 ( 1-1Iha Sa 4I . 0 0ON-r o0 l 0 -t 0 lk * O0 a 01a 0 Ol oa' 01 . .o 0 4 oa *rl 0 *rd0 43t -l -I -I i-I-H i-il-I omo 1-41-4 A -r Hcoi nOD ri-4i-i oi r-1 0 01 a' h 0 d 10 MM c (n -v-l 0'.41-I. -4 0 oei or4lO U)10! 0 <-ri 4 044 $4 1 T-1 1-1 orl-4 o -0 n i-4 in r- t m H V-1 rlr- o- mo MCI MM mam 0S A i M ari *rl aH 0 N 0 a0 0 0Mn >4 H m 0 di 0 0 4J 4J 0 E 0 *-r a3 aU Odi F C4 4-1 D a) a M m 0m 00 ci'U 000 UU 0 0 Sa 4 '.4 0 0a da - .4 4 0 0 0> -. 1- 4oo 01 4 3 * UMMm~ rl k m a 0 1M Om 0 A 0 UA 0Ci a di 00 0 a V Cd as 43 I 44 a *i u-l HI o o r e0 0 -.a 4 m m 0 oi 0 o a 0 0 See B ARE M zo dkL( m 01 q UP a01 r ONN a 0 a 44 0 o $40 m 0 di -o r1 0 a m -4 0 0 4i0 l m aa >1 r4 a A 0 4 Q0O I *ri UI 000 lU0 h NS1 Kt s *f aa0 @#K -4- business conditions, along with improved appraisals of buying conditions for large household appliances, were responsible for the rise in the overall sentiment index in September. Respondents continued to report favorably about their present financial situations compared with a year ago, but reported lower expectations last month about their financial outlooks for the coming year. Among those questions not included in the overall index, the proportion of respondents expecting an increase in unemployment over the next twelve months declined slightly. The index of expected unemployment change remained in the narrow, favorable range observed so far this year. Consumers' appraisals of buying conditions for cars and houses have fallen modestly in the past two months: Survey results point to recent increases in interest rates as playing a role in the case of houses. (The survey asks about interest-rate effects for housing purchases, but not for cars.) The mean of expected inflation in September while the median The mean of expected inflation percentage point to 3.5 percent; percent. over the next 12 months remained at 3.2 percent ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 2.7 percent. over the next five to ten years increased 0.2 the median rose 0.1 percentage point to 2.9 Motor Vehicles The first set of reports on sales of light motor vehicles in September indicate another strong month. General Motors, DaimlerChrysler, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan reported light vehicle sales for September as of 4:45 p.m. today. Based on those reports, total sales are estimated to have run at an annual rate of about 17.4 million units, down only 200,000 units from the torrid pace in August. Reported sales at General Motors, Toyota, and Honda were down slightly from their levels in August, but sales at DaimlerChrysler and Nissan were noticeably higher. The latest estimate of motor vehicle assemblies from Wards Communications points toward a notable drop in assemblies in September, to 13.2 million units (annual rate) from August's elevated 13.7 million unit rate. The weekly data suggest a slightly weaker rate of production in September. Looking ahead, today's revised figures on manufacturers' fourth-quarter schedules suggest that manufacturers plan to maintain the high level of production seen in recent quarters in order to meet the torrid pace of demand. The upward revision to fourth-quarter schedules is consistent with our assumption in the Greenbook that production plans as of last week were low given the pace of sales and were likely to be revised up somewhat. -5- Production of Domestic Autos and Trucks (Millions of units at an annual rate except as noted; FRB seasonal basis) 1999 Item Q2 Q31 Q41 Aug. Sept.1 Oct.1 U.S. production Autos Trucks 13.1 5.6 7.5 13.1 5.6 7.5 13.1 5.8 7.3 13.7 5.7 8.0 13.2 5.8 7.4 13.7 6.1 7.7 Days' supply Autos 57.0 n.a. n.a. 47.5 n.a. n.a. 64.9 n.a. n.a. 67.1 n.a. n.a. Light trucks 2 NOTE. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. 1. Production rates are manufacturers' schedules. 2. Excludes medium and heavy (class 4-8) trucks. n.a. Not available. Sales of New Homes Sales of new homes rose 2.9 percent in August to an annual rate of 983,000 units just shy of the all-time high posted in November 1998. However, the level of sales was revised down 3-1/4 percent in June and 2-1/2 percent in July.3 The average sales pace during the first two months of the current quarter was 969,000 units, up 5.4 percent from the pace during the first half of the year. The inventory of new homes for sale rose 1.6 percent last month to 313,000 units; this level would provide 3.9 months' supply at the August sales pace--in the middle of the range during the past year. The median price of new homes sold fell 2.6 percent during the twelve months ended in August while the average price rose 6.3 percent. In August, the difference in the two prices was unusually large: The median price of new homes was $150,800, about three-fourths as large as the average price of $198,300. According to an analyst at the Census, the divergence last month was the result of an unusual number of sales of very expensive homes. 3. Sales of new homes are only actually measured after a permit for construction of the unit has been issued. In its monthly estimates, the Census uses a mechanical procedure to estimate the number of homes sold before a permit is issued (so-called pre-sales). In subsequent months, as permits for these homes are issued, the imputation is largely replaced with actual sales. This procedure overestimated pre-sales in June and July and may have overestimated sales again in August. -6- National Association of Purchasing Management's Survey According to the National Association of Purchasing Management's (NAPM) Survey, the manufacturing sector expanded for the eighth consecutive month in September as the overall index rose 3.6 percentage points to 57.8 percent. After having weakened slightly in August, the NAPM's production index strengthened in September. New orders accelerated sharply, with the diffusion index reaching its highest level since June 1994. Export orders also rose, although not as sharply as total orders. The gap between the percentage of respondents who reported an increase in export orders and the percentage who reported decrease was the largest since mid-1997. The survey also reported a faster rate of inventory reduction by manufacturers in September than in August. Delivery times continued to slow in September. Purchasing managers reported that manufacturers paid higher prices in September than in August, and the index for prices paid climbed to its highest level since May 1995; the percentage of purchasing managers reporting increases in prices paid for materials and supplies exceeded the percentage reporting decreases by 35.1 percentage points--half again as high as in August and triple the gap reported in July. The list of commodities that were up in price during September included aluminum, chemicals, copper, ethylene, gasoline, some polyethylene products, wood pulp, and several paper products. This month's survey also asked a series of special question on Y2K preparations, focusing on inventory and production issues. Thirty-eight percent of purchasing managers indicated that they planned to build additional inventories as a buffer against possible Y2K disruptions in supply. Purchasing managers who indicated plans to accumulate precautionary stocks reported that the goods to be accumulated represented about 22-1/2 percent of their companies' inventories; the types of goods most frequently mentioned as likely to be stockpiled included components, packaging and raw materials, imported parts, chemicals, and finished goods. For most respondents who indicated plans to build stocks, the additional supplies would represent fewer than twenty additional days of supply: 39 percent of respondents planned to accumulate fewer than 10 additional days of supply and 21 percent of respondents planned to accumulate between 11 and 20 additional days of supply. As shown in the accompanying figure, purchasing managers reported that most of these additional inventories will be accumulated this fall; 34 percent of respondents indicated plans to build stocks in October, perhaps explaining part of the surge in this month's index of new orders. Overall, the purchasing managers responses to the special Y2K questions echoed the sentiments in the special theme report on Y2K issues sent to the Board and the Reserve Bank presidents this week. -7- Purchasing Managers' Y2K Inventory Plans 40% - C 0 " 35% rc 30% _ So _ Cf 25% 20% P 15% Sco - 10%5% Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1999 Construction Expenditures The total nominal value of construction put in place declined 0.4 percent in August after a 0.6 percent decline in the previous month. Total construction was revised down slightly in each of the four previous months, as upward revisions to public construction nearly offset downward adjustments to private construction. Private construction fell again in August to a level 2.4 percent below its average during the first quarter. After having been quite strong last winter when favorable weather may have boosted activity, construction has since trended down. In August, a decline in the single-family sector more than offset an increase in multifamily construction. The level of private nonresidential construction in August was 1.8 percent less than in the previous month and 5-1/4 percent below the first-quarter average. Since last winter, office construction has moved up, but this rise has been more than offset by weakness elsewhere, especially in the industrial and other commercial sectors (the latter of which includes retail stores and warehouses). In the public sector, construction spending by state and local governments rose 3 percent in August, retracing about half of the decline that occurred since last winter. Other things being equal, today's data would suggest a small downward revision in the construction sector's contribution to third-quarter real GDP, compared with the forecast shown in the September Greenbook. October 1, 1999 SUMMARY OF SURVEY OF PURCHASING MANAGERS FOR INDUSTRIAL FIRMS Purchasing Managers' Index 1 1998 Q3 1998 Q4 1999 Q1 1999 Q2 1999 Q3 1999 June 1999 July 1999 Aug. 1999 Sept. 49.1 46.9 52.1 55.0 55.1 57.0 53.4 54.2 57.8 - New orders Increases Same Declines 2 Net difference (n.s.a.) Net difference (s.a.)2 Backloa of orders Greater Same Less 3 Net difference (n.s.a.) 3 Net difference (s.a.) New export orders Increases Same Declines 2 Net difference (n.s.a.) 2 Net difference (s.a.) - 27 49 24 2 1.4 20 53 27 -7 -9.3 11 70 20 -9 -11.0 - - 20 50 30 -10 -6.6 14 53 32 -18 -17.8 10 67 23 -13 -13.5 - - - - - - Percent reporting - - 36 31 36 20 50 14 56 13 51 13 9 22 18 16.8 23 29 52 11.1 17.4 19 25 54 58 17 9 7.1 27 -8 -4.4 13 75 12 1 3.6 14 77 9 6 4.9 23 59 18 5 24.0 - - - - - 26 58 16 10 8.7 25 20 59 16 9 61 2.9 9.5 16 77 7 10 7.5 15 78 7 8 6.6 16 77 7 9 13 80 7 6 5.8 19 1 1.1 13 77 10 3 .6 - - 28 58 14 14 13.0 22 61 17 5 2.0 16 78 6 10 8.4 - - 39 52 9 30 29.1 27 55 18 9 5.6 20 76 4 16 13.8 norts Increases Same Declines Net difference Net difference Production Increases Same Declines Net difference Net difference EmDloyment Increases Same Declines Net difference Net difference 2 (n.s.a.) 2 (s.a.) 2 (n.s.a.) 2 (s.a.) (n.s.a.)2 2 (s.a.) 14 75 11 4 2.2 12 22 56 22 0 1.9 21 56 14 63 23 -9 -8.3 76 12 1 .6 23 -2 -2.2 11 64 25 -14 -12.6 12 79 9 3 4.8 29 54 17 11 12.9 14 63 23 -9 -7.9 15 78 8 7 7.2 35 7.4 29 57 36 14 16 17.4 10 26 26.4 15 6 3.2 17 69 14 3 3.0 21 66 13 8 3.5 19 67 15 32 60 8 22 67 11 11 7.7 55 11 24 20.4 21 64 54 17 14 73 3.2 81 5 9 7.7 27 57 16 11 16.1 27 58 15 12 13.2 56 10 24 23.2 18 66 16 2 17 71 12 5 6.6 16 69 15 1 2.9 23 32 65 12 11 10.7 62 6 26 21.3 42 52 6 14 67 19 10 7 -. 3 17 77 6 11 11.5 34 Prices paid Increases Same Declines 2 Net difference (n.s.a.) 2 Net difference (s.a.) 6 64 30 -25 -26.4 3 60 37 -34 -33.7 5 62 33 -28 -25.5 3.9 22.3 11 65 24 -12 -12.7 12 66 22 -10 -11.5 13 65 22 -9 -10.5 24 -11 -11.8 14 60 26 -12 -11.4 12 86 2 9 7.5 9 87 4 5 6.2 13 84 3 10 8.7 25 47 27 44 22 4 24 36 35.1 Inventories Increases Same Declines 2 Net difference (n.s.a.) 2 Net difference (s.a.) Supplier deliveries Slower Same Faster Net difference (n.s.a.)' Net difference (s.a.)4 Average lead times, number MRO supplies Production materials Capital goods 14 60 25 -11 -12.1 12 63 25 -12 -9.4 7 89 4 3 .9 of days. not seasonally adjusted 22 23 24 24 45 45 46 44 120 121 116 118 116 13 63 118 49 118 -5 -6.7 8 89 3 5 2.1 28 49 118 1. The overall PMI is a weighted average of five seasonally adjusted series in the purchasing managers' survey: new orders, production, employment, suppliers' delivery performance, and inventories. PMI = 50 is the reference point separating overall growth (PMI > 50) and decline (PMI < 50) in the industrial sector. 2. Increases minus declines. 3. Greater minus less. 4. Slower less faster. 10 69 21 -11 -13.7 14 85 1 13 11.8 23 44 112 -910-1-99 Purchasing Managers* (Seasonally adjusted) Percent Percent 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Percent Percent 1989 1997 1999 1991 1993 1995 SPercent reporting increases are netted with those reporting decreases. * Positive entries represent slower deliveries. 1989 1999 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 10-1-99 -10- Purchasing Managers' Index (Seasonally adjusted) Percent 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators (New orders, Production, Vendor deliveries, Inventories and Employment) with different weights applied. Seasonal adjustment is done by the NAPM. Condition of Customers' Inventories* Percent Sept. 1I1111111111111111 III111111111111111111111IIIIIII 1997 1998 1996 1995 * Percent too high plus 1/2 (percent about right). II 1999 -11New Orders for Durable Goods (Percent change from preceding period; seasonally adjusted) ComponentShare, Total durable goods Adjusted durable goods' Computers Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and computers Other MEMO Real adjusted orders2 Share, 1999:H1 Qi 100.0 3.8 69.0 6.0 2.0 -0.5 18.0 46.0 ... Q2 1999 June July Aug. 0.2 4.0 0.9 0.5 3.6 -0.5 -2.9 5.5 17.7 0.2 -6.6 4.4 1.5 -1.2 0.8 -3.4 0.9 6.7 3.5 1.3 0.8 3.3 1.3 -0.3 5.7 0.7 -1.1 1. Orders excluding defense capital goods, nondefense aircraft, and motor vehicle parts. 2. Nominal adjusted durable goods orders were split into three components: computers, electronic components, and all other. The components were deflated and then aggregated in a chain-weighted fashion. . Not applicable. Indicators of Future Production Diffusion index Percent Purchasing Managers orders (left scale) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1. Three-month percentage change of three-month moving average. 1996 1997 1998 1999 -12 New Construction Put in Place Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates Percent change from prior month 3 1999 Q1 Q2 r Juner July P Julyr Aug. P July Aug. Current dollars Total Private Residential 1 Single family Multifamily Nonresidential 1 Industrial Office Commercial Utilities & other 2 708.0 549.2 319.1 210.5 27.8 188.1 29.3 46.3 56.0 42.0 700.6 547.2 321.6 212.3 27.6 183.9 25.6 46.7 56.9 41.7 698.9 546.9 320.9 211.4 27.1 182.9 25.5 47.3 57.2 43.1 695.7 545.0 319.0 209.7 28.2 183.6 24.6 48.7 56.5 42.4 694.8 542.3 318.1 210.2 26.5 181.5 24.5 47.9 55.5 42.8 692.0 536.2 316.7 208.8 27.1 178.2 23.4 49.4 53.4 41.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -2.1 -0.8 -3.6 1.3 -2.8 -0.7 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 -0.7 2.3 -1.8 -4.8 3.1 -3.9 -3.5 Public State and local Federal 158.8 144.4 14.4 153.4 140.0 13.4 151.9 138.4 13.5 150.7 136.2 14.4 152.4 138.2 14.2 155.8 142.4 13.4 0.3 -0.1 5.2 2.2 3.0 -5.8 567.9 438.4 129.6 554.8 431.6 123.2 550.2 429.0 121.2 547.4 427.0 120.5 545.4 424.1 121.3 542.4 418.9 123.5 -0.9 -1.2 0.1 -0.5 -1.2 1.8 1992 dollars Total Private Public 1. Contains components not shown separately. 2. Includes public utilities and all other private construction. 3. Percent changes calculated from more digits than shown in table. r--revised. p--preliminary. Value of New Construction Put in Place (Seasonally adjusted annual rate) Billions of dollars, ratio scale - .... 320 320 300 Residential Nonresidential Public 265 230 195 /*~'"- - '' - . I . 1991 1992 1993 1994 1. *** 1995 1996 1997 . 1160 125 -13- Selected Financial Market Quotations (One-day quotes in percent except as noted) 1998 Change to Sept. 29 from selected dates (percentage points) 1999 Instrument Oct. 15 Dec. 31 FOMC* Aug. 24 Sept. 29 Oct. 15 Dec. 31 FOMC* Aug. 24 Short-term FOMC intended federal funds rate 5.00 4.75 5.00 5.25 .25 .50 .25 Treasury bills 1 3-month 6-month 1-year 4.05 4.12 4.06 4.37 4.39 4.33 4.78 4.94 4.93 4.69 4.78 4.97 .64 .66 .91 .32 .39 .64 -.09 -.16 .04 Commercial paper 1-month 3-month 5.27 5.13 4.90 4.84 5.20 5.30 5.29 5.29 .02 .16 .39 .45 .09 -.01 Large negotiable CDs 1 1-month 3-month 6-month 5.35 5.31 5.10 5.01 4.97 4.97 5.31 5.43 5.86 5.34 6.02 5.90 -.01 .71 .80 .33 1.05 .93 .03 .59 .04 Eurodollar deposits 2 1-month 3-month 5.34 5.28 4.94 4.94 5.25 5.38 5.31 5.94 -.03 .66 .37 1.00 .06 .56 Bank prime rate 8.25 7.75 8.00 8.25 .00 .50 .25 Intermediate-and long-term U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 2-year 10-year 30-year 4.13 4.58 5.02 4.54 4.65 5.09 5.66 5.89 5.98 5.68 5.97 6.13 1.55 1.39 1.11 1.14 1.32 1.04 .02 .08 .15 U.S. Treasury 10-year indexed note 3.69 3.88 4.02 4.07 .38 19 .05 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) 3 5.21 5.26 5.86 5.93 72 .67 .07 Corporate bonds, Moody's seasoned Baa 7.26 7.23 8.10 8.28 1.02 1.05 18 11.28 10.17 10.91 11.23 -.05 1.06 .32 6.49 5.36 6.77 5.58 7.93 6.18 7.76 6.19 1.27 .83 .99 .61 -.17 .01 High-yield corporate 4 Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate) 5 30-year fixed 1-year adjustable Record high 1998 Stock exchange index Dow-Jones Industrial S&P 500 Composite Nasdaq (OTC) Russell 2000 Wilshire 5000 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. * Change to Sept. 29 from selected dates (percent) 1999 Level Date Dec. 31 FOMC* Aug. 24 Sept. 29 11,326.04 1,418.78 2,887.06 491.41 12,976.99 8-25-99 7-16-99 9-10-99 4-21-98 7-16-99 9,181.43 1,229.23 2,192.69 421.96 11,317.59 11,299.76 1,360.22 2,719.57 437.25 12,367.22 10,213.48 1,268.37 2,730.27 421.52 11,607.90 Secondary market. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Most recent Thursday quote. Merrill Lynch 175 high-yield bond index composite. For week ending Friday previous to date shown. Data are as of the close on August 23, 1999. Record high -9.82 -10.60 -5.43 -14.22 -10.55 Dec. 31 FOMC* Aug. 24 11.24 3.18 24.52 -. 10 2.57 -9.61 -6.75 .39 -3.60 -6.14 Commercial Bank Credit (Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rate) Level, 1999 Type of credit 1998 Q2 Q3 p Jul Aug Sep p Sep 19 9 9 p (billions of $) 1. Bank credit: Reported 11.0 0.3 5.1 -0.7 9.8 6 4,606 2. Adjusted' 10.2 2.2 5.7 1.0 9.5 5 4,522 3. Securities: Reported 14.0 -2.9 14.6 17.6 16.1 8 1,250 11.1 4.6 17.6 25.7 15.3 3 1,165 5.9 4.1 5.9 1.9 8.4 -6 816 32.3 -16.6 32.6 49.9 31.6 36 434 9.9 1.4 1.7 -7.4 7.5 6 3,356 11.8 2.6 5.5 2.0 10.2 13 983 6.5 3.6 5.9 1.3 11.3 8 1,390 Adjusted 1 4. 5. U.S. government 6. Other 2 7. Loans 3 8. Business 9. Real estate 10. Home equity 0.0 6.7 -20.1 -67.1 7.4 9 99 11. Other 7.1 3.3 8.0 6.9 11.6 8 1,291 12. Consumer: Reported -1.6 -2.9 -10.4 -22.5 -0.7 6 484 13. Adjusted 4 6.0 1.1 4.6 3.6 7.9 13 772 30.0 -2.0 -4.8 -33.4 0.0 -16 500 14. Other 5 Note. Adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications. Monthly levels are pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. Quarterly levels (not shown) are simple averages of monthly levels. Annual levels (not shown) are levels for the fourth quarter. Growth rates shown are percentage changes in consecutive levels, annualized but not compounded. 1. Adjusted to remove effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FIN 39 and FASB 115). 2. Includes securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments and any trading account assets that are not U.S. government securities. 3. Excludes interbank loans. 4. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks. 5. Includes security loans, loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables. p Preliminary. 

Federal Reserve (1999, October 4). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19991005_part3

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19991005_part3,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1999},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19991005_part3},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}