Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. DIVISION OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Date: June 24, 1999 To: Members of the Federal Open Market Committee From: Thomas A. Connors Subject: Corrected Table, Greenbook Part 1, page 1-38. STRICTLY-CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC Attached is a corrected table, Impact of Alternative Assumptions, contained in Greenbook Part 1, page 1-38. The table has been corrected to reflect the current baseline assumptions for U.S. real GDP and the U.S. CPI. STRICTLY-CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC Part1: Summary and Outlook, June 24, 1999 I-38 Impact of Alternative Assumptions (Percent change, Q4 to Q4) Measure 1999 2000 3.7 3.8 3.9 2.6 2.9 4.1 U.S. real GDP Baseline Stronger foreign GDP growth Stronger foreign growth and weaker dollar1 U.S. CPIexcluding food and energy 2.1 2.5 Baseline 2.6 2.1 Stronger foreign GDP growth 3.4 2.2 Stronger foreign growth and weaker dollar1 NOTE. All simulations assume federal funds rate unchanged from baseline. 1. Assumes dollar path falls an additional 10 percent below baseline. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC June 25, 1999 SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Real Gross Domestic Product, 1999:Q1 ................................. 1 Consumer Sentiment ................. 3 ............................. Sales and Prices of Existing Homes .................................... 3 Shipments and Orders of Durable Goods ................................ 6 Tables Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items .......................... 2 University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of Consumer Attitudes ................ 4 ................. The Market of Existing Homes ...................................... 5 Orders and Shipments of Durable Goods ................................ 7 Changes in Manufacturing and Trade Inventories .......................... 10 Charts Recent Data on Orders and Shipments .................................. 8 Inventory-Sales Ratios, by Major Sector ................................. 11 THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables Selected Financial Market Quotations .................................... 12 Commercial Bank Credit ............................................. 13 SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Real Gross Domestic Product. 1999:Q1 According to the BEA's final estimate, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the first quarter after having advanced at a 6.0 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 1998. Growth in real final sales slowed in the first quarter, but still posted a solid increase of 4.6 percent (annual rate). The slowdown in final sales reflected a substantial swing in the contribution from net exports, which had been boosted by transitory factors in the fourth quarter. The final estimate of the first-quarter increase in real GDP was 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the preliminary release. The change owes mainly to upward revisions in net exports and nonresidential structures. The final estimate was a bit weaker than that anticipated in the June Greenbook because of marginally smaller than anticipated contributions from state and local consumption and investment, personal consumption expenditures, and net exports. The GDP chain price index rose at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 0.9 percent over the four quarters of 1998. The first-quarter increase was 0.1 percentage point higher than that in the preliminary estimate, the result of small upward revisions to the inflation estimates in several expenditure categories. Real disposable personal income rose 3.5 percent in the first quarter, 3/4 percentage point lower than in the preliminary release, and the personal saving rate was revised down to -0.7 percent. The downward revisions owe to BEA's incorporation of data on tax collections this spring, which showed higher estimates of federal income tax payments than assumed earlier. Corporate profits (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $47.1 billion in 1999:Q1 following a decline of $5.3 billion in 1998:Q4 when profits were held down $13.5 billion by tobacco company payments related to litigation settlements. The revised estimate is $15 billion higher than estimated in the preliminary report and raised the share of profits (excluding Federal Reserve banks) in GNP to 9.6 percent. 6-25-99 Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items (Percent change from previous period at compound annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data, chain-type indexes) 1. 2. Gross domestic product Final sales Consumer spending 3. 1999:Q1 Final 1998:Q4 Final 1999:Q1 Preliminary 6.0 4.1 4.3 6.6 4.3 4.6 5.0 6.8 6.7 24.5 12.9 12.9 4. Durables 5. Nondurables 4.2 9.4 9.5 6. Services 1.7 4.3 4.1 14.6 7.9 8.5 17.8 9.7 9.5 6.0 2.9 5.7 10.0 15.4 15.4 7.3 -1.7 -1.9 7. Business fixed investment 8. Producers' durable equipment 9. Nonresidential structures Residential investment 10. 11. Federal government consumption expenditures and investment 12. State and local government consumption expenditures and investment 1.3 7.7 7.7 13. Exports of goods and services 19.7 -6.8 -5.1 14. Imports of goods and services 12.0 14.2 13.5 37.5 34.7 35.1 6.8 1.5 1.5 30.7 33.2 33.6 ADDENDA: 15. Nonfarm inventory investment 16. Motor vehicles 1 17. Excl. motor vehicles 1 1 18. Net exports of goods and services 1 19. Nominal GDP 20. GDP price index 21. Profit share 2 22. (Excluding FR banks) 23. Real disposable personal income 24. Personal saving rate (percent) 1. 2. -250.0 Level, billions of chained (1992) dollars. Economic profits as a share of nominal GNP. -2- -310.1 -303.6 6.9 5.6 6.0 .8 1.5 1.6 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.2 9.4 9.6 4.3 4.3 3.5 .0 -. 6 -. 7 Consumer Sentiment According to the final report, the Michigan Survey Research Center (SRC) index of consumer sentiment rose 1/2 percentage point in June.1 Expectations of future business conditions improved considerably in June. However, respondents' assessments of their current finances were little changed this month, and their views concerning their future finances dipped a bit. Appraisals of buying conditions for large household appliances fell back in June after having climbed to a historical high in May. Responses to questions that are not included in the overall index were somewhat mixed in June. The index of expected unemployment change fell sharply indicating a substantial improvement in assessments of labor market conditions over the next twelve months. In addition, households' willingness to use savings to finance a major purchase soared in June to its highest level since September 1984. However, appraisals of buying conditions for cars and for homes moved lower in June, reflecting, in part, some dissatisfaction with current interest rates. The mean of expected inflation over the next twelve months edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent, but the median declined 1/4 percentage point to 2.5 percent. The mean of expected inflation over the next five to ten years declined 0.2 percentage point to 3.3 percent, and the median fell 0.1 percentage point to 2.8 percent. Sales and Prices of Existing Homes Sales of existing homes declined 4 percent in May to an annual rate of 5.04 million units. With this decrease, existing home sales are down 7 percent from their record high in March. Existing home sales respond to changing market conditions with a lag because many of them are recorded at the time a sale is closed rather than when the sales contract is signed. The recent declines in existing home sales follow a falloff in new home sales between December and March. In April, however, new home sales increased 9-1/4 percent, and other, 1. The increase shown in the final tabulations was less than shown in the preliminary June report, which was released on June 11 and showed the index up more than 2 percentage points. o 0 0 3 - moW I mm mm 0hN WN In rmaw (i in mm 10 o rq 4 ri l 00 0 w « otcn r- - l 0- %0 OD mWo Ci o 0 i-I mim m n mc coC"D 4 itn o moW mo in nw o l rq v I I " -l V) o I 4ri-4 v-1-1-1 om Ii r- mr- T0I n 1-1r m -Nlvi wm mw mo mm i-l 1-1 mmMq r4i H r-I 0 * 0 e 0T-4 o, 0 1raH il *- - IM0 I- ,-4WCI o O in 0 to -lt-l14 N mn r rr-r- l mm i-l Ln iql q Oil in w r% i-l 1-1V-l mN mo r o a t-0 * i nmm 01t 0o n l m inmro o ,i-I 4I 0.M0 %D CO . * > 0 oo I in 1-1- 0 41 W * iO 0 r-I mN mO %m n 1-I m I0 o 014 oI * 0 Pa A- 0 '0 0 0ms&0 S0 0 43 o Mo- I Lno i- m mm oo V-I rq o T-I 1-1 1-1 l 1-o r ma r-l fn 0 Tc S-10 O I 4 Vl c mm 4 * r 1- 4 m4N c in w V. 1r4IT4r-1 > I 4 A 0 V 0- 0 0 M * 4 S-rl I B* S0 -oorl - 0-r Ic 43 §I Vl 'd O O- 0 0 Oop V *I a 'a of! $4 1 A 0 - a Ho o «o I a 4 14 0 0a 41 0 *ril Z d M$40 0 I-l 0 rl rC) 31MI rl MA 0 0 00 00 m 4 N-l 0 .4 1a aN 0000 O l *p 0 0 0O4 -1 0 0 0Il II 4 0 0 oa o 4) r 0 HO H a H m o I 1- H E Ka •OH - mo o o O ri 04 4 00 4 0) U - '00 90 0 i rO t I IU Om 4 - 041 0 K S 44 ai o 0 mc mw D I * 1.>4 aId m in w rm mo P4 M4 ciSwm mI-Io -rl II I * 0u I I OIh * * *-I 1-1 1-1 o-ro a S. I r-I in 0 S 4) 1-4l i ai 0Ir4i e -I I-l I aS0 g e o 0 3 II IO 0-4 a 9*A « a u m 03& I o 0 44) 0 a0 a 40 fd0 0 Pt *r 3 3Sm 00 r0 UMM S oo BM 41 O 0.- ri 4. aH 0 a*-- IM au a S0 l-I .1.1 a-4i-ril s -4 0 Hc-4 4 *rl A N w1 0 0 m 0 w f- S0 *4rl rio-H** 4EE 1 0 e THE MARKET FOR EXISTING HOUSES 1998 1998 Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Q1 Mar. Apr. May 5,040 -4.0 Sales 1 Total Percent Change 4,970 13.4 4,980 0.7 5,100 2.4 5,207 2.1 5,420 5.4 5,250 -3.1 Previously reported level 4,970 4,980 5,100 5,207 5,420 5,240 Regional Sales Northeast Midwest South West 662 1,130 1,868 1,309 660 1,123 1,867 1,333 657 1,173 1,930 1,337 687 1,153 2,023 1,347 720 1,190 2,110 1,400 660 1,150 2,030 1,420 630 1,100 2,000 1,320 Inventories Existing homes for sale 2 2,086 2,047 2,086 2,080 2,080 2,119 2,083 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.8 5.0 Prices 4 Average Percent change 159.1 5.7 161.9 5.2 159.1 4.5 161.6 5.9 162.3 5.9 163.8 4.9 167.9 5.3 Median Percent change 128.4 5.4 130.7 5.0 128.7 4.8 129.3 4.5 129.6 4.0 130.7 3.9 133.1 3.3 Repeat Sales Index 5 Percent change 154.9 5.7 156.1 5.8 157.8 5.4 159.5 4.9 ND ND ND ND ND ND Months' supply 3 Note: Annual and quarterly levels are averages of monthly data. 1. Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate, except where noted. Percent change is from previous comparable period. 2. Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted, end of period stock. 3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of seasonally adjusted inventories to seasonally adjusted sales. 4. Price levels are expressed in thousands of dollars and are not seasonally adjusted. Percent changes are from the previous comparable period a year earlier. 5. The index equals 100 in the first quarter of 1987. ND--data not reported on a monthly basis. June 25, 1999 more timely indicators of housing demand--such as builders' ratings of new home sales and applications for home mortgages--rose from April through June. The year-over-year increase in the median price of existing homes was 3.3 percent in May, the lowest such increase recorded over the past twelve months. The average price was up 5.3 percent from a year earlier, which is near the midpoint of the distribution of such increases over the past twelve months. These price series do not adjust for compositional changes in the structural characteristics and amenities of homes sold. The most recent observation for the repeat-sales price index for existing homes--which holds constant some of the compositional shifts that can affect the median and average prices--shows a 4.9 percent increase in the first quarter from a year earlier. 2 Shipments and Orders of Durable Goods New orders for durable goods rose 1.4 percent in May. A big increase in the volatile series for aircraft orders accounted for all of the gain: Excluding aircraft, orders edged off 0.2 percent last month. The staff's constructed series on real adjusted durable goods orders-which strips out nondefense aircraft, defense capital goods, and industries for which reported orders actually equal shipments--ticked down 0.1 percent in May, but remained 2.5 percent above its first-quarter average. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 1 percent in May. The decline was due to a large drop in orders for engines and turbines, which have been running at very high levels. Excluding engines and turbines and aircraft, orders for nondefense capital goods rose 2.4 percent last month to level 2.9 percent above the first-quarter average. Most notably, sizable increases were posted in May for construction machinery and metalworking machinery, two industries whose shipments were depressed by weak foreign demand over the past year. Orders for communications equipment remained on a steep uptrend, rising 1 percent in May. 2. This index is calculated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac using price data obtained when houses are sold repeatedly or refinanced. ORDERS AND SHIPMENTS OF DURABLE GOODS (Percent change from comparable previous period, seasonally adjusted) 1998 1999 1999 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar. Apr. (r) May (a) Orders Aircraft and parts Excluding aircraft and parts Office and computing Communications equipment All other 4.3 1.7 4.7 2.7 -3.0 7.7 -4.3 -19.7 -1.6 .6 5.8 -4.4 6.9 33.8 3.1 -. 5 11.6 2.4 .1 -22.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 -1.3 -15.6 .5 1.7 -2.3 .9 2.8 37.8 -1.0 .5 1.0 -2.1 Shipments Aircraft and parts Excluding aircraft and parts Office and computing Communications equipment All other 1.6 2.5 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.0 4.0 17.2 1.7 .6 5.3 1.2 -1.4 -5.2 -. 6 -.1 5.7 -2.5 2.7 .2 3.2 -1.0 5.5 4.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 6.2 2.3 -1.3 1.3 .4 1.4 -.5 1.4 2.3 2.7 .6 3.8 2.9 -2.3 1.4 3.0 .0 3.6 2.9 -2.2 1.5 3.6 4.3 -2.3 -2.8 -4.3 11.2 7.2 6.9 9.4 4.0 .1 41.3 -5.6 -1.3 -35.5 4.1 2.8 17.6 4.9 .9 3.3 3.0 1.0 -. 1 Nondefense capital goods Supplementary orders series Durable goods* Industries with unfilled orders Capital goods Nondefense Defense Real adjusted durable goods r--Revised. a--Advance. *--Contains industry detail not shown separately. RECENT DATA ON ORDERS AND SHIPMENTS Billions of Dollars Office and Computing Equipment - - Orders Shipments _-May A I. . . I . I .. I , . I 1996 . I I , 1997 I I 1998 .1 I 1999 Orders Shipments 1995 1995 1996 1996 1997 1997 1998 I Orders Shipments /I I I~ 1995 1996 1997 -8- 199 199 Billions of Dollars Other Equipment (excl. aircraft, computers, and communications eq.) - - I Billions of Dollars Communications Equipment - - I Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.4 percent last month. Computer shipments ticked down 0.5 percent following a very large gain in April. Shipments of communications equipment advanced 1.4 percent in May and stood 5-1/2 percent above their first-quarter average level. Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and high-tech equipment posted a strong gain last month, increasing 2.3 percent. CHANGES IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES (Billions of dollars; annual rate except as noted; based on seasonally adjusted Census book value) 1998 1999 1999 Category Manufacturing and trade Less wholesale and retail motor vehicles Manufacturing Less aircraft Merchant wholesalers Less motor vehicles Retail trade Automotive dealers Less automotive dealers Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb. Mar. Apr. 41.4 26.2 33.4 42.8 63.5 25.3 33.8 6.3 9.6 27.3 9.6 8.8 7.4 1.3 -7.0 -3.9 -12.9 -3.0 -8.0 -9.4 -7.4 3.1 -8.4 -. 6 26.4 24.5 11.3 6.3 5.9 4.7 22.3 21.5 8.0 1.0 6.3 5.7 7.6 5.7 1.8 21.9 14.9 6.9 40.4 22.6 17.8 28.5 14.7 13.8 63.0 46.9 16.0 27.3 15.8 11.5 SELECTED INVENTORY-SALES RATIOS IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE (Months' supply, based on seasonally adjusted Census book value) Cyclical reference points Category 1990-91 high Manufacturing and trade Less wholesale and retail motor vehicles 1991-98 low Range over preceding 12 months High Low April 1999 1.58 1.37 1.39 1.35 1.36 1.55 1.34 1.37 1.32 1.33 Manufacturing Primary metals Steel Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Motor vehicles Aircraft Nondefense capital goods Textiles Paper Chemicals Petroleum Home goods & apparel 1.75 2.08 2.56 2.48 2.08 2.93 .97 5.84 3.09 1.71 1.32 1.44 .94 1.96 1.36 1.46 1.59 1.61 1.21 1.51 .53 4.05 2.04 1.38 1.06 1.25 .80 1.59 1.40 1.74 2.25 1.67 1.39 1.85 .64 4.97 2.21 1.59 1.23 1.45 .99 1.75 1.33 1.57 1.86 1.61 1.21 1.49 .52 4.05 2.04 1.48 1.17 1.37 .85 1.59 1.33 1.66 2.10 1.61 1.20 1.52 .53 4.05 2.00 1.54 1.19 1.38 .82 1.53 Merchant wholesalers Less motor vehicles 1.36 1.31 1.24 1.21 1.33 1.32 1.29 1.27 1.30 1.29 1.83 .95 1.54 .90 1.66 .99 1.59 .94 1.59 .97 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.38 1.48 1.42 1.42 1.36 1.44 1.36 2.22 2.42 2.53 2.42 1.56 1.98 2.27 2.04 1.66 2.04 2.54 2.09 1.56 1.91 2.35 1.98 1.70 1.93 2.31 1.99 Durable goods Nondurable goods Retail trade Less automotive dealers Automotive dealers General merchandise Apparel GAF -10- Inventory-Sales Ratios, by Major Sector (Book value) Manufacturing Ratio -- I I 1987 I I 1989 I I 1991 I I 1993 I 1995 Apr. V VV I I I 1997 1999 Wholesale Ratio Total excluding motor vehicles 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Retail Excluding Autos Ratio Apr. I 1987 I I I I I I 1993 -11- I I 1995 I I 1997 I 1999 Selected Financial Market Quotations (One-day quotes in percent except as noted) Change to June 24 from selected dates (percentage points) 1999 1998 Instrument Oct. 15 Dec. 31 FOMC* May 18 June 24 Oct. 15 Dec. 31 FOMC* May 18 Short-term Federal funds FOMC intended rate Realized rate 1 5.00 5.40 4.75 4.58 4.75 4.85 4.75 4.73 -.25 -.67 .00 .15 .00 -.12 Treasury bills 2 3-month 6-month 1-year 4.05 4.12 4.06 4.37 4.39 4.33 4.55 4.62 4.64 4.60 4.85 4.90 .55 .73 .84 .23 .46 .57 .05 .23 .26 Commercial paper 1-month 3-month 5.27 5.13 4.90 4.84 4.80 4.83 5.04 5.03 -.23 -.10 .14 .19 .24 .20 Large negotiable CDs 2 1-month 3-month 6-month 5.35 5.31 5.10 5.01 4.97 4.97 4.86 4.94 5.05 5.11 5.23 5.40 -.24 -.08 .30 .10 .26 .43 .25 .29 .35 Eurodollar deposits 3 1-month 3-month 5.34 5.28 4.94 4.94 4.75 4.88 5.00 5.19 -.34 -.09 .06 .25 .25 .31 Bank prime rate 8.25 7.75 7.75 7.75 -.50 .00 .00 Intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 2-year 10-year 30-year 4.13 4.58 5.02 4.54 4.65 5.09 5.31 5.66 5.91 5.75 6.05 6.17 1.62 1.47 1.15 1.21 1.40 1.08 .44 .39 .26 3.69 3.88 3.82 4.01 .32 .13 .19 5.21 5.26 5.34 5.62 .41 .36 .28 7.26 7.23 7.75 8.15 .89 .92 .40 11.29 10.52 10.42 10.72 -.57 .20 .30 6.49 5.36 6.77 5.58 7.10 5.71 7.65 5.94 1.16 .58 .88 .36 .55 .23 U.S. Treasury 10-year indexed note Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) 4 Corporate bonds, Moody's seasoned Baa High-yield corporate 5 Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate) 6 30-year fixed 1-year adjustable Record high Change to June 24 from selected dates (percent) 1999 1998 Record FOMC* Stock exchange index Level Date Dec. 31 May 18 June 24 Dow-Jones Industrial 11,107.19 5-13-99 9,181.43 10,853.47 10,534.83 S&P 500 Composite 1,367.56 5-13-99 1,229.23 1,339.49 1,315.78 2,652.05 491.41 12,549.05 4-26-99 4-21-98 5-13-99 2,192.69 421.96 11,317.59 2,561.84 441.35 12,293.78 2,553.99 443.16 12,072.98 Nasdaq (OTC) Russell 2000 Wilshire 5000 1. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period ending on or before date shown. Most recent observation is average for current maintenance period to date. 2. Secondary market. 3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 am. Eastern time. 4. Most recent Thursday quote. 5. Merrill Lynch Master II high-yield bond index composite. 6. For week ending Friday previous to date shown. * Data are as of the close on May 17, 1999. -12- FOMC* Dec. 31 May 18 -5.15 14.74 -2.94 -3.79 7.04 -1.77 -3.70 -9.82 -3.79 16.48 5.02 6.67 -.31 .41 -1.80 high Commercial Bank Credit (Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rate) 1998 1. Bank credit: Reported 2. Adjusted 3. Securities: Reported Adjusted 1 4. 5. U.S. government 6. Other 2 7. 1 Loans 3 8. Business 9. Real estate Level, Q4 Ql Mar Apr 11.0 16.8 -0.8 -8.8 1.8 Ma 1999 (billions of $) 4,502 2.6 10.3 15.4 1.3 -1.6 1.6 2.9 4,416 13.9 22.8 -5.8 -18.7 0.7 0.2 1,189 11.2 17.6 1.9 9.3 -0.2 1.4 1,103 5.9 8.3 4.1 11.4 0.5 -1.8 798 32.1 51.9 -23.6 -75.6 1.2 4.3 391 10.0 14.7 1.1 -5.2 2.1 3.5 3,313 12.0 16.1 -0.2 4.6 4.3 -6.3 949 6.7 10.2 7.1 -0.2 1.6 6.2 1,347 1998 Type of credit 1999 May 10. Home equity 0.0 -3.2 -2.4 1.2 11.0 12.1 100 11. Other 7.3 11.4 7.9 -0.3 0.9 5.7 1,246 12. Consumer: Reported -1.8 4.8 2.3 -3.1 1.2 -9.6 496 13. Adjusted 4 5.8 7.8 2.9 3.0 1.7 -4.9 755 29.6 33.1 -12.3 -38.0 0.7 27.5 522 14. Other5 Note. Adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications. Monthly levels are pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. Quarterly levels (not shown) are simple averages of monthly levels. Annual levels (not shown) are levels for the fourth quarter. Growth rates shown are percentage changes in consecutive levels, annualized but not compounded. 1. Adjusted to remove effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FIN 39 and FASB 115). 2. Includes securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments and any trading account assets that are not U.S. government securities. 3. Excludes interbank loans. 4. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks. 5. Includes security loans, loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables. -13- 

Federal Reserve (1999, June 29). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19990630_part2

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19990630_part2,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1999},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19990630_part2},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}