Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC May 14, 1999 SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY 1 ...................... Consumer Price Index (CPI) ................... 2 Industrial Production ............................................. Retail Inventories .............................. .. University of Michigan Survey Research Center Survey of Consumer Attitudes ............... Tables CPI and PPI Inflation Rates ............. 3 ............... ............ Broad Measures of Inflation ................ .......... ....... . .4 ...... ...................... 5 .7 Growth in Selected Components of Industrial Production .................. 8 Changes in Manufacturing and Trade Inventories .......................... 9 University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of Consumer Attitudes ................................ Charts . 12 Measures of Core Consumer Price Inflation .............................. Inventory-Sales Ratios, by Major Sector ............................. Inventory-Sales Ratios ............................................ 6 . . 10 11 THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables Selected Financial Market Quotations . ............................... 13 Commercial Bank Credit ............... 14 .......................... SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Consumer Prices The consumer price index jumped 0.7 percent in April, boosted in part by a very sharp rise in energy prices; the CPI now stands 2.3 percent above the level of year ago. Consumer food prices edged up last month, but consumer prices excluding food and energy increased 0.4 percent. The twelve-month change in the core CPI was 2.2 percent in April, up 0.3 percentage point from the year-earlier pace (taking into account methodological changes). Higher tobacco prices accounted for the acceleration, and (on a methodologically consistent basis) core CPI prices excluding tobacco were unchanged over the past twelve months. Consumer energy prices surged 6.1 percent last month, the largest monthly increase on record, and are now 3 percent above their year-earlier level. The price of motor fuel jumped a record 15 percent in April, and heating oil prices also surged; these increases reflect the sizable rise in crude oil prices so far this year as well as disruptions to refinery operations in California. For early May, survey results suggest that retail prices of gasoline have leveled off. The CPI for food edged up 0.1 percent in April, after declining slightly in March. The volatile index for fruits and vegetables increased 1.4 percent in April, and the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs turned up last month. Other food prices fell slightly on balance, led by declines in the indexes for dairy products and butter. Over the past twelve months, the overall index for food has risen 2.3 percent. The index for commodities other than food and energy moved up 0.6 percent in April. nearly reversing the declines of the previous two months. Tobacco prices rose 3.6 percent last month, following a decline of the same magnitude in March; these monthly movements reflect the removal in April of discounts on name-brand cigarettes that were in effect for the month of March. The April index for tobacco stands 33 percent above its level of a year ago. Among other goods, apparel prices rose 1.5 percent in April, the first increase since August 1998, but remain slightly below their year-earlier level. New and used motor vehicle prices also turned up last month. The CPI for non-energy services rose 0.4 percent last month. Both owners' equivalent rent and residential rent increased 0.3 percent in April, while the index for lodging away from -2home jumped 1.9 percent, following a similar rise in March. Elsewhere, air fares rose 2 percent further and are up 11.3 percent (not at an annual rate) over the first four months of this year. Last month's 0.4 percent increase in the core CPI followed increases of only 0.1 percent in each of the first three months of the year. We believe that those first-quarter readings were held down slightly by seasonal adjustment di fficulties associated with the introduction of the geometric-mean CPIs in January.' Although the higher April figure appears to reflect a partial reversal of this seasonal adjustment distortion, this effect likely accounted for only a small part of the April increase. 2 Industrial Production Industrial activity picked up in recent months, after a period of slack. IP rose a robust 0.6 percent in April, and the increase in March was revised up to 0.5 percent. Manufacturing production rose 0.6 percent in April following upward-revised gains of 0.4 percent in February and March. Within manufacturing, durable goods production rose rapidly for a second month, and the advances were again widespread. Output of motor vehicles and parts rose 2.3 percent in April; automakers were probably a bit surprised by the very high level of sales last quarter, and production schedules indicate that assemblies are likely to remain high in coming months. In the high-technology area, production gains have accelerated after slowing early this year. In particular, semiconductor production rose rapidly in March and April, above the pace seen in prior months, and communications equipment advanced 2.8 percent in April. The increase in communication equipment indicates that the strength in orders in this category finally appears to be boosting production. The production of nondurable goods remains below its year-ago level, but has picked up over the past several months. Gains in nondurables in April were widespread-- 1. The geometric-mean CPIs appear to have a different seasonal pattern than the Laspeyres CPIs that had been in place through last year; nevertheless, in adjusting the new data for seasonal variation, BLS is using seasonal factors calculated on the old, Laspeyres-weighted data. 2. Apparel and lodging away from home, the two series with the greatest differences in seasonal patterns between the geometric-means and Laspeyres CPIs, both jumped notably in April after declining in earlier months. the exception being petroleum products; refinery disruptions in California depressed gasoline production. The production of consumer goods increased 0.6 percent in April, primarily reflecting a 2.1 percent jump in the production of durable consumer goods; notable output gains occurred in automotive products, carpeting and furniture and home electronics. Production of business equipment advanced 0.3 percent in April after an upward-revised increase of 0.7 percent in March. Transit equipment fell, reflecting the drop-off in production at Boeing from last fall's peak. Information processing equipment rose substantially further, largely reflecting the advances in computers and communications equipment. Construction supplies have fallen, on net, over the past several months--but remain at a high level. The increases in production in recent months have lifted the factory operating to 79.8 percent in April. This level of utilization is still about two percentage points below the long-term average. Utilization rates have fallen in most industries over the past twelve months. The exceptions include lumber and lumber products and stone, clay, and glass products, which have probably been held up by strong construction activity, light trucks, where utilization rates have increased as sales and production picked up over the past year, and petroleum products. Retail Inventories The book value of retail inventories rose $70.3 billion at an annual rate in March, driven by a whopping increase in inventories held by auto dealers. Excluding autos, retail stocks accumulated at a $20.1 billion pace. For the quarter as a whole, non-auto retail inventories rose at a $19.1 billion annual rate. considerably faster than the $6.9 billion annual rate posted in the fourth quarter. However, with non-auto retail sales rising 3.2 percent in the first quarter (not at an annual rate), the inventory-sales ratio for this category fell to 1.38 months, the lowest quarterly ratio since 1980. Nondurable goods inventories increased at a $14.9 billion pace in March, led by stockbuilding at general merchandisers and "other nondurable goods" establishments--the category that includes eating and drinking places, and drug and proprietary stores. In contrast, apparel outlets liquidated inventories in March, and the inventory-sales ratio at these establishments fell to 2.36 months, the lowest level since the summer of 1997. Durable goods -4held by non-auto retailers expanded at a $5.2 billion annual rate in March, with the accumulation occurring at lumber and building materials and "other durable goods" establishments. Today's report supplied the last piece of the inventory data that were not available at the time of BEA's first-quarter advance GDP release. For the quarter as a whole, manufacturing and trade inventories (excluding motor vehicles) rose at an $11.8 billion annual rate, up a bit from the $6.3 billion pace reported in the fourth quarter. Although the retail inventory data released today were stronger than BEA's assumption, the wholesale inventory data released last week were much weaker than BEA had pencilled in. Thus, the total book-value inventory accumulation in the first quarter was about $5 billion lower than BEA had assumed when assembling the advance GDP estimate. Consumer Sentiment According to the preliminary report, the Michigan SRC index of consumer sentiment rose almost two points in early May. Assessments of current conditions improved this month: Respondents' views on their current personal finances rose to the highest level in more than a year, and appraisals of buying conditions for large household appliances surged to an historical high. In contrast, respondents had less favorable assessments of future business conditions and of their financial situations over the next year. Among those series not in the overall index, the index of expected unemployment change moved back up in early May. Nevertheless, households assessments on buying conditions improved considerably this month. Although respondents had less favorable views on current mortgage rates, a greater share felt that now was a good time to buy a house because "times are good" and a house is a "good investment." Assessments of buying conditions for cars also moved sharply higher. The mean of expected inflation over the next year, edged down 0.1 percentage point to 2.9 percent in May, but the median was unchanged at 2.7 percent. The mean of expected inflation over the next five to ten years, edged up 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent. The median also was unchanged at 2.8 percent. CPI AND PPI INFLATION RATES (Percent change) From twelve months earlier Apr. 1998 Apr. 1999 1998 1999 Q4 Q1 1999 Mar. -Annual rate- Apr. -Monthly rate- All items (100.0)1 Food (15.4) Energy (6.3) CPI less food and energy (78.3) Commodities (24.0) New vehicles (5.0) Used cars and trucks (1.9) Apparel (4.8) Tobacco (1.2) Other Commodities (11.1) Services (54.3) 2.0 -7.4 2.1 2.3 3.0 2.2 2.9 -6.2 2.3 2.4 -2.0 1.6 .2 .8 1.0 .0 -. 3 -. 6 -. 7 .1 -. 7 -11.5 -6.8 81.5 -.2 -. 6 8.3 .6 32.8 -. 9 5.2 -1.3 34.3 -. 6 -. 4 3.0 2.8 -4.0 -. 2 -. 4 -. 6 -. 3 -3.5 .0 .1 .6 1.5 3.6 .1 .3 .4 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .2 1.0 1.3 -1.3 6.1 -2.5 8.5 -1.1 3.1 3.3 2.2 Shelter (29.9) Medical care (4.5) Other Services (19.9) PPI Finished goods (100.0) 2 Finished consumer foods (23.3) Finished energy (11.9) Finished goods less food and energy (64.8) -. 4 -8.7 .6 1.0 -6.1 2.3 -2.0 2.9 2.3 Consumer goods (39.6) Capital equipment (25.2) 3 Intermediate materials (100.0) Intermediate materials less food and energy (83.2) 4 Crude materials (100.0) Crude food materials (42.2) Crude energy (31.9) Crude materials less food and energy (25.9) 1. 2. 3. 4. Relative Relative Relative Relative importance importance importance importance weight weight weight weight for for for for -1.6 -1.4 -3.4 -2.0 -. 1 -1.4 -2.9 -1.5 -7.0 -9.9 -5.8 -11.4 -9.3 -4.8 -5.6 -9.5 -8.5 -12.7 1.5 -1.8 -24.0 -1.2 -27.5 -5.3 -. 8 CPI, December 1998. PPI, Decamber 1998. intermediate materials, December 1998. crude materials, December 1998. Measures of Core Consumer Price Inflation (Twelve-month change except as noted) CPI Excluding Food and Energy Percent I 3-month change 1990 1993 1994 S 3 3 * I 1997 1995 S- Apr. 1998 1999 2 0 CPI Services and Commodities Percent /4 = CPI services ex. energy ,\ ' /,\ , - 4 - S--, Apr, 1996 1996 1990 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 1999 CPI and PCE Percent PCE deflator ex, food and energy 0 1990 1991 1992 1 11 1993 - SApr. , 1 1 1 1 1 Mar.1 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 0 -7- BROAD MEASURES OF INFLATION (Four-quarter percent change) 1996 Q1 1997 Q1 1998 Q1 1999 Q1 Product prices 2.0 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.4 Gross domestic purchases chain-type price index Less food and energy 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.5 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.9 PCE chain-type price index Less food and energy 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 CPI Less food and energy 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.5 1.5 2.3 1.7 2.2 Median CPI Trimmed mean CPI 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.0 2.8 1.7 GDP chain price index Nonfarm business chain-type price index 1 Expenditure prices 1. Excluding housing. SURVEYS OF (CPI) INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (Percent) Actual inflation I University of Michigan (1-year) (5- to -10-year) Mean 4 Median 5 Mean 2 Median 3 Professional forecasters (10-year) 6 1997-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2.9 2.3 2.2 1.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.7 1998-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 1999-Q1 1.7 3.0 2.6 3.3 2.8 2.3 Oct. Nov. Dec. 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.5 1999-Jan. Feb. Mar. 1.7 1.6 1.7 3.0 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.3 Apr. May 2.3 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.8 1. CPI; percent change from the same period in the preceding year. 2. Average increase for responses to the question: By about what percent do you expect prices (CPI) to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months? 3. Median increase for responses to the question above. 4. Average increase for responses to the question: By about what percent per year do you expect prices (CPI) to go up, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years? 5. Median increase for responses to question above. 6. Compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. GROWTH IN SELECTED COMPONENTS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Percent change from preceding comparable period) 1998 1999 Q4 Q1 1999 - Proportion 1998 19981 Feb. Mar. Apr. -Annual rate- -- Monthly rate--- 100.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.1 .7 .1 .3 .5 .1 .6 Manufacturing Durables Motor vehicles and parts Aircraft and parts Nondurables 88.4 49.6 5.1 3.1 38.8 2.5 5.3 .7 8.9 -. 9 4.9 8.6 37.3 -2.6 .3 1.6 1.9 -3.0 -11.2 1.2 .4 .2 1.7 -. 9 .6 .4 .7 .9 .6 .1 .6 .8 2.3 -3.1 .3 Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts 83.3 2.6 3.1 1.9 .3 .4 .5 5.4 6.2 -4.9 -1.1 -10.8 -20.5 -11.1 4.4 -.8 -2.1 -.7 2.8 .1 .7 Consumer goods Durables Nondurables 27.5 6.0 21.5 -.4 4.9 -1.8 .1 18.0 -4.4 1.2 7.1 -.4 .3 1.4 -. 1 -. 1 -1.3 .2 .6 2.1 .2 Business equipment Information processing Computer and office eq. Industrial Transit Other 15.4 6.1 2.5 4.8 3.1 1.5 8.3 14.4 53.0 1.5 12.1 -1.4 6.2 11.2 45.9 -2.9 19.1 -8.2 -1.8 6.3 29.6 -6.8 -10.2 2.4 .0 .0 1.3 -1.4 -.9 6.6 .7 1.5 2.3 -.1 -.1 1.2 .3 1.7 1.9 .7 -1.0 -3.7 6.0 5.1 5.9 7.0 -.5 -. 2 .4 39.1 23.8 3.9 3.6 8.4 1.6 3.8 25.7 -6.3 -2.8 3.5 9.5 51.7 -7.5 -3.2 2.2 3.1 16.6 .9 2.0 .3 .2 .6 -1.5 .9 .8 1.3 2.2 1.2 .1 .9 1.2 3.3 -. 3 .2 Total index Previous Mining Utilities IP by market group Construction supplies Materials Durables Semiconductors Basic metals Nondurables 1. From the final quarter of the previous period to the final quarter of the period indicated. CAPACITY UTILIZATION (Percent of capacity; seasonally adjusted) 1988-89 High Manufacturing Primary processing Advanced processing 1959-98 Avg. 1998 1999 1999 Q1 Q4 Q1 Feb. Mar. Apr. 85.7 81.6 80.2 80.1 79.5 79.5 79.6 79.8 88.9 84.2 82.8 81.1 82.9 79.3 82.5 79.3 82.9 78.4 82.8 78.4 82.7 78.5 83.0 78.8 CHANGES IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES (Billions of dollars; annual rate except as noted; based on seasonally adjusted Census book value) 1998 1999 1999 Category Manufacturing and trade Less wholesale and retail motor vehicles Manufacturing Less aircraft Merchant wholesalers Less motor vehicles Retail trade Automotive dealers Less automotive dealers Mar. Feb. Jan. Q3 Q4 Q1 41.4 26.2 35.5 -6.1 42.8 69.9 33.8 6.3 11.8 -8.0 27.3 16.0 7.4 1.3 -7.0 -3.9 -13.8 -4.6 -23.2 -2.8 -8.0 -9.4 -10.2 -1.6 26.4 24.5 11.3 6.3 6.5 6.4 -12.7 -8.3 22.3 21.5 9.8 6.0 7.6 5.7 1.8 21.9 14.9 6.9 42.8 23.7 19.1 29.7 6.3 23.4 28.5 14.7 13.8 70.3 50.1 20.1 SELECTED INVENTORY-SALES RATIOS IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE (Months' supply, based on seasonally adjusted Census book value) Cyclical reference points Category 1990-91 high Manufacturing and trade Less wholesale and retail motor vehicles 1991-98 low Range over preceding 12 months High Low March 1999 1.58 1.37 1.39 1.36 1.35 1.55 1.34 1.37 1.34 1.33 Manufacturing Primary metals Steel Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Motor vehicles Aircraft Nondefense capital goods Textiles Paper Chemicals Petroleum Home goods & apparel 1.75 2.08 2.56 2.48 2.08 2.93 .97 5.84 3.09 1.71 1.32 1.44 .94 1.96 1.36 1.46 1.59 1.61 1.21 1.51 .53 4.05 2.04 1.38 1.06 1.25 .80 1.59 1.40 1.74 2.25 1.67 1.39 1.85 .64 4.97 2.21 1.59 1.23 1.45 .99 1.75 1.35 1.55 1.83 1.61 1.21 1.56 .53 4.05 2.04 1.48 1.17 1.38 .88 1.60 1.33 1.64 2.06 1.65 1.23 1.48 .52 4.13 2.04 1.58 1.20 1.37 .85 1.60 Merchant wholesalers Less motor vehicles 1.36 1.31 1.24 1.21 1.33 1.32 1.29 1.27 1.30 1.28 1.83 .95 1.54 .90 1.66 .99 1.59 .94 1.59 .96 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.38 1.49 1.43 1.42 1.36 1.44 1.37 2.22 2.42 2.53 2.42 1.56 1.98 2.27 2.04 1.71 2.07 2.54 2.10 1.56 1.91 2.37 1.99 1.66 1.92 2.36 1.98 Durable goods Nondurable goods Retail trade Less automotive dealers Automotive dealers General merchandise Apparel GAF -10- Inventory-Sales Ratios, by Major Sector (Book value) Manufacturing Ratio 1.9 1.7 1.5 I 1987 1989 Ii 1991 Mar. l , 1.3 lIIII 1993 1995 1997 Wholesale 1999 Ratio S1.4 Total excluding motor vehicles 1.3 Mar. - - 1.2 1.1 Total excluding motor vehicles, chemicals, metals, and industrial machinery 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Retail 1999 Ratio - 2.8 - 1.7 2.6 1.6 GAF group (left scale) 2.41.5 2.2 - 1.4 2 - Tntnl yrhArlinn ;ltn. (rinht snal 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 -11- Inventory-Sales Ratios Manufacturing and Wholesale Machinery ex. High Tech Ratio 1995 1997 Chemicals Ratio Metals Ratio Ratio 1999 Ratio 1995 1997 High Tech Ratio Ratio 1.4 1999 Ratio 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1995 1997 1999 1995 1997 1999 Retail Trade General Merchandise and Apparel Furniture and Home Furnishings Ratio Ratio - 23 2.3 -2.2 2.2 - 2.1 2.1 2 2 Mar. 1.9 - 1.9 1995 1997 1999 1995 1997 1999 -12- M0 n 1m1 tm MM V1-1 0 l 044 r- 1 D N %0 inw o H-i r-I - Inr- Ni . CII MCIN or< N 0 -l ri C %0 0 o r- o r4 in o 01 p @<? rl 0 * r> n 01 0 -4 i-io rq rq C MO r- MON S - -0 0 4 O m o b 44 0 O romw N fn 1-1 O 0 co 0 A *r OU i 0 -Mo r4 H 0 0 r1 h ma *0 MM f ooinA .- omo .4i Mn D 0 inr-- f 14 M I T- m S1-1 D LN an - o w mo t- rn in Lfl~ C il mof N m n 0 MO o> mo 0 D)f 0 0•o I3 0) 0 0 -rl U Ok 0 C Iu n M 0 * 0 0 0 HH-l 00 om m ko So> r-1 -H n -m % n r mm 1 fnM Nniou. oM -4 0 o ,-4 MN M M w CN n C4m M00 1i 1 OOrl OH firil H Nm m 1 ( -1 M r H 0 0 aH r4 t0 CO eOin T-4 4 0 M w v0 A 00 in r, 00 . -a 0 -4 o 10 i 0'0- S S0 S10 a 10 00 . 0 -4 .- i i o *U HO 01 * 0 N fm Ch 0 4i CO H4.l 01 o 00 MO S.i m. ror mm a CNN C OrIM 0 -40 -41. NC Si ri 0 Iz 4rla o'-4 a 0 Su **r w a 0a *0s ou 60 fi w & 0-r4 r O $4 o14 0 m 49 00 0 0 0 o0 SS 0 ) a m n C ao a a U z k NCI .4 00 so, *r 0 0 0 w u U 00 400 S0 .4 0 A A N a A0 3 0 4-4 0o a hq am I >r I MMO « n oMM * *u P UE r ooo fti 0 0 ma a 00 rl 0 0 I 0 o . 0 A--4 1& a U 1o U 0 0 EEo 0 ri m S 0 06A 0 a 00 Wm u * aI B *rl S 4rl 4J AO 0 9 0 rs0 4-4. A.4 CI 0 *4rl 0f o 01-4 0 r4 .4 > 0 o 00 a 4 w> .1 -I .4 .rl a a44 *rl 444 .4 '0 * 0 I 0a 0 0 oH *S-S II" s) #$ N rl 09 @-E *> -13- III-T-1 Selected Financial Market Quotations (One-day quotes in percent except as noted) Change to May 13 from selected dates (percentage points) 1999 1998 Oct. 15 Dec. 31 FOMC* Mar. 30 May 13 Oct. 15 Dec. 31 FOMC* Mar. 30 Short-term Federal funds FOMC intended rate Realized rate 1 5.00 5.40 4.75 4.58 4.75 4.79 4.75 4.71 -.25 -.69 .00 .13 .00 -.08 Treasury bills 2 3-month 6-month 1-year 4.05 4.12 4.06 4.37 4.39 4.33 Commercial paper 1-month 3-month 5.27 5.13 4.90 4.84 4.84 4.80 4,78 4.79 -.49 -.34 -.12 -.05 -.06 -01 Large negotiable CDs 2 1-month 3-month 6-month 5.35 5.31 5.10 5.01 4.97 4.97 4.83 4.88 4.96 Eurodollar deposits 3 1-month 3-month 5.34 5.28 4.94 4.94 4.78 4.84 Instrument Bank prime rate 8.25 7.75 7.75 Intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 2-year 10-year 30-year 4.13 4.58 5.02 4.54 465 5.09 5.12 541 5.75 U.S. Treasury 10-year indexed note 3.69 3.88 3.85 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) 4 5.21 5.26 5.34 Corporate bonds, Moody's seasoned Baa 7.26 7.23 7.61 11.29 10.52 10.30 6.49 5.36 6.77 5.58 6.98 5.69 7.02 5.68 .53 .32 .25 .10 .04 -.01 5-13-99 5-13-99 4-26-99 4-21-98 5-13-99 9,181.43 1,229.23 2,192.69 421.96 11,317.59 10,006.78 1 310.17 ' 492.84 399.76 11,893.39 11,107.19 1,367.56 2,582.00 450.84 12,549.05 .00 00 -2.64 -8.26 .00 20.97 11.25 17.75 6.84 10.88 11.00 4.38 3.58 12.78 5.51 High-yield corporate 5 Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate) 6 30-year fixed 1-year adjustable Stock exchange index Dow-Jones Industrial S&P 500 Composite NASDAQ (OTC) Russell 2000 Wilshire 5000 11,107.19 1,367.56 2,652.05 491.41 12,549.05 1. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period ending on or before date shown. Most recent observation is average for current maintenance period to date. 2. Secondary market. 3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. 4. Most recent Thursday quote. 5. Merrill Lynch Master II high-yield bond index composite. 6. For week ending Friday previous to date shown. * Data are as of the close on March 29, 1999. -14- Commercial Bank Credit (Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rate) 1999 1998 1998 Type of credit 1. Bank credit: Reported Adjusted 1 2. 3. Securities: Reported Adjusted 1 4. 5. U.S. government 6. Other2 7. Loans 3 8. Business 9. Real estate Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Level, Apr 1999 Apr (billions of $) 11.0 ,6.9 -1.0 -3.5 -8.9 0.2 4,484.2 10.3 15.4 1.1 -1.9 -1.7 0.1 4,397.2 13.9 22.8 -6.0 -10.2 -19.1 -1.7 1,184.1 11.1 17.5 1.7 -4.5 8.9 -2.5 1,097.1 5.8 8.2 4.0 -3.6 11.2 -0.9 797.2 31.9 51.9 -24.1 -22.2 -77.3 -3.1 387.0 10.0 14.7 0.9 -1.0 -5.2 0.9 3,300.0 12.2 16.3 0.2 0.3 4.6 2.3 954.1 6.7 10.2 7.0 2.5 -0.2 0.4 1,337.5 10. Home equity 0.0 -3.2 -2.4 -4.9 2.4 9.7 99.4 11. Other 7.3 11.4 7.7 3.1 -0.3 -0.3 1,238.2 -1.5 5.1 2.5 -1.2 -2.9 1.0 501.6 6.0 8.0 31 -0.2 3.8 4.1 761.6 29.4 32.9 -12.3 -37.8 -0.2 506 8 12. Consumer: Reported Adjusted 4 13. 14. Other 5 -14.3 Note. Adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications. Monthly levels are pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. Quarterly levels (not shown) are simple averages of monthly levels. Annual levels (not shown) are levels for the fourth quarter. Growth rates shown are percentage changes in consecutive levels, annualized but not compounded 1. Adjusted to remove effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FIN 39 and FASB 115). 2. Includes securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments and any trading account assets that are not U.S. government securities. 3 Excludes interbank loans. 4. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks 5. Includes security loans, loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables. 

Federal Reserve (1999, May 17). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19990518_part1

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19990518_part1,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1999},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19990518_part1},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}