Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC May 15, 1992 SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Industrial production and capacity utilization . . .. Retail inventories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Michigan index of consumer sentiment . . . . . . . . . 1 2 3 Tables Growth in selected components of industrial production Capacity utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in manufacturing and trade inventories . . . . Inventories relative to sales. .. . . . . . . . . . . University of Michigan Survey Research Center: Survey of Consumer Attitudes . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 4 6 6 7 Charts Consumer sentiment . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . Ratio of inventories to sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 5 THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY The May 1992 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Tables Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit. . . . . . . . ... Selected financial market quotations . . . . . . .. . 12 13 14 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Developments in foreign industrial countries ..... Errata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . .. 15 15 SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization The index of industrial production rose 0.5 percent in April. Revised figures now indicate that IP dropped somewhat less in January and rose slightly more in March than reported earlier. As a result, the cumulative rise in production over the past three months is now estimated to have retraced all but 0.2 percent of the decline that occurred between last October and January. Much of the upward revision to the index over the January-toMarch period reflects higher levels of output of construction supplies, notably steel and lumber, and of materials, such as paper. textiles and chemicals. In addition, in March, production of business equipment now appears to have been a bit stronger. In April, the increase in output of motor vehicles and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to the overall rise in IP. Production of other consumer goods moved up just a little: further sizable increases in production of furniture and carpeting are estimated to have been offset by cuts in production of appliances and clothing. Production of business equipment (other than motor vehicles) rose moderately for a third month. Output of industrial equipment has posted a solid gain in each of the last three months. after dropping almost every month since September 1990. Production of office and computing equipment has been rising rapidly since October; the sustained gains have cumulated to about a 15 percent increase at an annual rate. The April rise of 0.6 percent in the index for construction supplies was fairly broadly based. While production of steel materials dropped back last month, output of durable materials related to motor vehicle assembly moved up. -2Output of nondurable materials was boosted by strong increases in paper, petroleum, and chemicals. Capacity utilization in manufacturing reached 77.7 percent in April; rates of utilization in both primary and advanced processing remain about 5 percentage points below the levels that prevailed in September 1990. Retail Inventories Retail inventories rose in March at a $23.4 billion annual rate in current-cost terms; about half of the increase was in auto dealers' stocks. For non-auto retailers, the accumulation of stocks in March retraced the bulk of the drawdowns posted in the preceding two months. As a result, non-auto retail inventories showed only a $2.9 billion net decline (current cost, annual rate) over the first quarter as a whole, considerably less than the $9.6 billion liquidation assumed by BEA in preparing the advance GDP estimate for 1992:Q1. With the drop in sales in March, the inventory-sales ratio for non-auto retailers rose to 1.49 months at the end of March--well below the elevated level at the end of last year, but still a shade higher than earlier in 1991. At a more disaggregated level, inventory-sales ratios rose for most categories of retail stores. For all manufacturing and trade, inventories rose at an annual rate of $36.9 billion in current-cost terms in March, but declined at a $1.7 billion annual rate for the first quarter as a whole. Because of the decline in the stock-sales ratio at non-auto retailers, the ratio of inventories to sales edged down in the first quarter. The ratio for wholesalers was little changed from the relatively high level at the end of last year. The ratio for manufacturers also was unchanged, but at a relatively low level. -3Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment: May 15. 1992 According to the University of Michigan Survey Research Center, the composite index of consumer sentiment increased 2-1/2 index points in May, the third consecutive monthly increase. These preliminary results are based on responses of nearly two-thirds of the full sample of participants. The improvement in consumer attitudes was widespread across a variety of indicators. Assessments of business conditions over the next 12 months and next 5 years both firmed significantly. Consumers' appraisals of buying conditions for large household appliances rose in May to their highest level since last summer; appraisals of buying conditions for cars showed an even larger increase in May, reaching the highest Moreover, the questions relating to consumers' level in five years. willingness to use credit and to use saving for major purchases The only area of pessimism was for both increased markedly. Questions for consumers' appraisals of their financial situation. both current and expected conditions edged down. Consumer Sentiment Index 132 Michigan Survey - - - - Conference Board Survey IN -A 118 104 S- I' 97 1 / I JW S 141 -' I I 1981 I I 1983 -- 55 i I I 1985 I I 1987 i 1989 1991 -4 48 1 I4 -4GROWTH IN SELECTED COMPONENTS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Percent change from preceding comparable period) Proportion in total IP 1991:4 1991 1 1991 1992 Q4 Q1 -Annual rateTotal index Previous 1992 Feb. Mar. Apr. ---- Monthly rate----- 100.0 -.5 -. 5 -. 7 -. 7 -2.9 -4.1 .5 .4 .4 .2 .5 4.2 7.7 8.5 1.0 4.4 -3.6 -20.0 -7.2 7.7 -. 4 .6 2.3 5.2 -.2 88.1 54.8 42.1 22.6 3.7 18.9 -1.1 -1.4 -. 9 1.9 3.2 1.7 -. 7 -. 6 -. 3 2.5 -3.1 3.6 -1.6 -1.0 -1.7 -. 3 2.5 -. 7 .3 .2 .2 .2 1.9 -.2 .2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .1 .2 .1 14.5 2.8 3.9 7.8 -2.0 4.2 -8.7 -. 4 -1.8 10.5 -14.6 1.0 -1.5 12.3 -11.0 -1.3 .4 1.2 .8 .0 .5 .9 .6 .3 .4 1.0 ,3 .2 4.4 -8.0 -4.1 -10.3 -. 5 -. 2 -. 1 12.7 5.3 -2.7 -6.4 -1.3 -5.2 1.7 1.7 .0 .5 .3 .3 .2 .6 33.3 18.2 9.0 -. 5 -1.8 2.3 -1.0 -. 3 .2 -2.7 -1.7 -2.6 .5 .9 -. 2 .1 .3 .8 .5 .1 .7 Motor vehicles and parts Utilities EXCLUDING MOTOR VEHICLES AND PARTS AND UTILITIES Total index Products, total Final products Consumer goods Durables Nondurables Business equipment Office and computing Industrial Other Defense and space equipment Intermediate products Construction supplies Materials Durables Nondurables 1. From the final quarter of the previous period to the final quarter of the period indicated. CAPACITY UTILIZATION (Percent of capacity; seasonally adjusted) 1967-90 1988-89 1990 1992 Avg. High Sep. Feb. Mar. Apr. Total industry 82.2 85.0 83.6 78.3 78.4 78.7 Manufacturing 81.5 85.1 82.8 77.3 77.5 77.7 82.4 81.1 89.0 83.6 85.1 81.8 80.3 76.1 80.5 76.2 80.8 76.4 Primary processing Advanced processing RATIO OF INVENTORIES TO SALES (Current-cost data) Ratio Manufacturing 1.9 - 1.7 Total .Mar.- 1.5 L 1.3 Excluding transportation equipment I 1980 I I 1982 I 1984 I I 1986 I i 1988 I I 1990 1992 Ratio S1.5 Wholesale Mar. 1.2 1.4 -- 1.1 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 Ratio Ratio 2.7 Retail 2.3 - 1992 1.7 1.5 , 2.1 Excluding auto 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1.4 1992 -6CHANGES IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES (Billions of dollars at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data) 1991 1992 Q3 Q4 Q1 10.8 1.8 -4.5 -3.3 18.6 9.0 9.6 27.6 26.5 -12.5 20.0 20.1 1.1 19.0 -1.0 -1.0 -4.1 -3.0 6.2 .0 6.1 12.4 20.5 -11.4 16.5 7.2 -8.1 15.3 1992 Jan. Feb. Mar. -1.7 -5.6 -11.4 8.7 1.0 3.9 -2.9 -44.3 -32.2 -20.5 4.3 -28.1 -12.1 -15.9 2.2 -9.7 -14.3 8.9 7.6 12.0 -4.3 37.0 25.1 .6 12.9 23.5 11.9 11.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -39.4 -28.0 -15.6 2.4 -26.2 -11.3 -14.8 -5.3 -11.4 -12.7 8.1 -. 6 6.1 -6.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Current-cost basis Total Total, excluding retail auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto Constant-dollar basis Total Total, excluding retail auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto INVENTORIES RELATIVE TO SALES 1 (Months supply; based on seasonally adjusted data) 1991 1992 1992 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan. Feb. Mar. 1.50 1.47 1.57 1.31 1.57 1.91 1.48 1.51 1.49 1.55 1.36 1.61 1.87 1.54 1.50 1.48 1.55 1.36 1.56 1.84 1.49 1.51 1.50 1.58 1.35 1.56 1.80 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.54 1.36 1.54 1.78 1.47 1.49 1.47 1.53 1.35 1.56 1.84 1.49 Current-cost basis Total Total, excluding retail auto Manufacturing Wholesale Retail Automotive Excluding auto 1. Ratio of end of period inventories to average monthly sales for the period. May 15, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER: 1992 SURVEY OF CONSUMER ATTITUDES (Not seasonally adjusted) 1991 1991 1991 1991 1992 1992 1992 1992 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Composite of current and expected conditions 83.0 78.3 69.1 68.2 67.5 68.8 76.0 77.2 79.7 Current conditions 93.2 76.4 90.4 70.5 80.3 61.9 78.7 61.5 80.5 59.1 79.7 61.8 84.9 70.3 87.7 70.5 91.0 72.5 104 122 101 125 88 119 88 115 90 119 91 123 93 113 97 129 96 123 99 86 87 70 66 61 67 64 53 63 123 137 152 123 133 146 124 119 143 113 114 141 126 114 163 125 126 153 131 130 162 144 139 165 39 31 47 53 54 62 1992 May (p) Indexes of consumer sentiment (Feb. 1966=100) Expected conditions Personal financial situation Now compared with 12 months ago* Expected in 12 months* Expected business conditions Next 12 months* Next 5 years* Appraisal of buying conditions Cars Large household appliances* Houses 123 117 155 Willingness to use credit Willingness to use savings Average expected increase in prices during the next 12 months 3.7 4.7 4.6 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.1 Average expected increase in prices (per year) over the next 5 to 10 years 4.7 5.1 5.3 4.8 5.4 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.2 * -- Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. (p) -- Preliminary (f) -- Final Note: Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100. Asterisk (*) indicates the question is one of the five,equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment. THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY The May 1992 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The May 1992 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices posed questions about changes in bank lending standards and terms and about the demand for bank loans by businesses and households. Most domestic banks kept credit standards unchanged over the last three months. For large and medium-sized firms, the handful of banks reporting tighter terms were about offset by those reporting an easing. For small firms, however, several banks reported easing while none tightened. U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks reported a slight further tightening on balance, citing deterioration in actual or expected capital conditions as the reason for the change. The domestic banks that tightened standards tended to cite less favorable outlooks for the economy and specific industries as the reasons for changing standards. In contrast to credit terms, there was some moderate further tightening of loan terms, on balance, especially price terms like the cost of credit lines and interest rate spreads over base rates; most of the tightening was for large and medium-sized firms. Standards for approval of loan applications for various types of nonresidential real estate continued to tighten at about the same pace as recorded in the January survey. Residential real estate lending standards were basically unchanged. Domestic banks reported that business loan demand from larger corporate borrowers had changed little on balance over the past three months, but that demand from middle market and small business borrowers had strengthened noticeably. Banks that reported weaker loan demand from their large corporate borrowers indicated that those customers had opted for nonbank sources of finance, such as -9capital markets. Demands for residential mortgages to purchase houses and for home equity loans were generally stronger. In contrast to the January survey, demand for consumer installment loans strengthened on balance. Compared with the January survey, about twice as many domestic banks reported increased willingness to provide consumer credit. Lending Standards and Terms Nonmerger-related C&I loans: credit standards. On balance, the standards used by domestic banks for approving business loans for nonmerger-related purposes changed little. Standards for small businesses were eased somewhat at a small number of domestic banks. Of the few domestic banks that either raised or lowered their business lending standards, improvement or deterioration in general economic conditions and in conditions in specific sectors were often cited as the reasons. Changes in actual and prospective capital conditions were also sometimes cited. Business lending standards at U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, whose customers tend to be large business borrowers, were tightened at two banks. Those banks reported that actual and prospective capital considerations were the reason for the change. Nonmerger-related C&I loans: credit. price and nonprice terms of Domestic banks and U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks on balance reported some additional tightening of terms on business loans. Though credit line sizes were pared somewhat for large and middle-market firms, no domestic bank reported lowering and a few reported having raised credit line limits for small firms. Credit line costs tended to be higher for large and middle-market firms, a pattern that was particularly evident at large domestic banks, i.e., those with over $10 billion of assets, and at foreign banks. On balance, credit line costs were not raised for smaller -10firms. At large domestic banks and at foreign banks, spreads of loan rates at over base interest rates showed some tendency to have risen. There was little evidence of this pattern at the smaller domestic banks, however. Loan covenant and collateralization requirements were basically unchanged over the three months. Commercial real estate loans: credit standards. Standards for various categories of commercial real estate lending continued to be raised at about the same pace as in the January survey: About 10 percent of all banks tightened standards, while hardly any banks eased them. Approximately equal numbers of banks reported tightening standards for loans for construction and land development, commercial office buildings, industrial structures, and other nonfarm nonresidential purposes. Household loans. On balance, domestic banks reported having not changed credit standards for approving home purchase loan applications from individuals. With regard to banks' willingness to make general purpose and installment consumer loans, about twice as many banks registered an increase in their willingness to lend in May as had so indicated in January. Overall, about one-fifth of banks reported increased willingness to make consumer loans. The Demand for Loans Business loans. In contrast to the January finding that the demand for business loans had weakened, the May survey revealed that, on balance, loan demand had generally strengthened over the past three months. Although loan demand by large corporate customers was basically unchanged at domestic banks, loan demands by middle market and small businesses were noticeably stronger. branches and agencies of foreign banks also reported somewhat stronger business loan demand. U.S. -11In contrast to the January survey that reported reduced inventory and capital expenditure financing needs, the primary reason cited for the weakness of loan demand by large firms in the May survey was their use of nonbank sources of finance. Banks that noted stronger business loan demand most often cited increases in their customers' funding needs for inventories and fixed investment, regardless of the size of the borrower. Of the few domestic banks that reported weaker loan demand by middle market and small businesses, none cited their customers having turned to nonbank sources of finance. Household loans. On balance, the demand for residential mortgages rose over the past three months. While some banks reported weaker demand for residential mortgages, nearly one-third of domestic banks reported moderately stronger mortgage demand and nearly 10 percent reported substantially stronger demand. The demand for home equity lines of credit also strengthened considerably, with about one-third of domestic banks reporting stronger demand. In contrast to the January survey finding that the demand for consumer installment loans had fallen over the prior three months, the May survey found that demand was generally stronger. -12MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted) 1991 19911 1992 Q1 94 1992 Feb 1992 Mar 1992 Apr p Growth Q4 91Apr 92p ------------ Percent change at annual rates--------------------1. 2. 3. Ml M2 M3 8.0 2.8 1.2 ------------ 11.0 2.3 1.0 16.5 4.2 2.2 27.2 9.4 7.2 10.3 -0.6 -2.9 5.1 -1.9 -3.4 14.3 2.7 0.7 Levels bil. $ Apr 92p Percent change at annual rates---------- Selected components 4. 5. 6. Ml-A Currency Demand deposits 7. Other checkable deposits 8. 2 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. M2 minus M1 Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares Commercial banks Savings deposits (including HMDAs) Small time deposits Thrift institutions Savings deposits (including MMDAs) Small time deposits 17. M3 minus M2 3 Large time deposits 4 At commercial banks, net At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual fund shares Term RPs, NSA Term Eurodollars, NSA 5.6 8.7 14.9 28.1 9.6 6.7 592.8 8.4 3.4 7.4 10.0 7.4 22.2 9.8 45.7 0.9 18.1 7.9 5.8 273.6 311.2 12.4 15.0 19.2 25.5 11.1 2.7 350.2 1.1 -0.6 -0.1 3.1 -4.6 -4.6 2524.8 -7.6 39.9 17.0 -1.6 -53.0 -39.1 71.2 3.9 7.1 13.3 1.1 -6.9 9.3 -16.8 -4.0 3.9 16.0 -8.5 -8.8 10.2 -22.5 0.9 0.9 19.2 -18.9 -4.0 22.4 -24.7 12.3 1.3 22.9 -23.5 -3.0 30.5 -31.6 -18.8 -0.6 11.1 -14.6 -3.7 23.4 -27.9 -12.7 4.6 13.8 -6.7 -12.8 16.1 -39.7 354.2 1269.3 703.3 566.0 826.5 408.1 418.4 -5.6 -5.2 -7.4 -3.5 -14.1 -10.4 710.2 -11.7 -5.1 -31.7 -18.9 -14.4 -36.7 -20.4 -18.2 -29.6 -20.2 -16.3 -33.9 -22.0 -17.2 -45.5 -20.0 -16.0 -36.3 406.1 332.3 73.8 33.4 -21.6 -10.6 37.0 -23.6 -11.5 27.0 -6.5 -28.3 -18.5 26.6 38.6 25.3 -24.4 -33.2 189.2 72.2 56.2 38.2 20.3 6.5 ----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars---MEMORANDA:5 24. Managed liabilities at comercial banks (25+26) 25. Large time deposits, gross 26. Nondeposit funds 27. Net due to related foreign institutions 6 Other 28. 29. U.S. government deposits at commercial 7 banks -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 6.5 -4.0 10.5 -2.6 -5.7 3.1 2.0 -2.3 4.3 -6.3 -6.8 0.5 -5.4 -7.2 1.8 691.5 399.7 291.8 0.4 -0.9 6.3 4.2 2.0 1.0 -1.1 5.4 2.7 -2.3 4.6 -2.7 49.9 241.9 0.9 -1.5 -8.3 2.3 -1.8 20.0 Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Nontransactions HZ is seasonally adjusted as a whole. The non-MH component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift institutions. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial barks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money lincluding borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor itemsJ. Data are partially estimated. 7. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. p - preliminary 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. -13COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT 1 (Percentage change at annual rate, based on seasonally adjusted data) Category Dec. 1990 to Dec. 1991 1991 Q4 1992 Q1 1992 Feb. 1992 Mar. 1992 Apr. Levels bil.$ 1992 Apr. Commercial bank credit 1. Total loans and securities at banks 2. Securities 3. U.S. government 4. Other 5. Loans 3.9 7.0 1.9 0.0 2.6 5.2 17.6 24.5 6.0 6.8 8.5 19.9 765.2 23.8 30.3 9.8 8.9 16.2 24.3 588.6 1.7 7.3 -6.1 -0.7 -15.5 6.1 176.7 -0.2 1.1 0.5 -2.4 0.5 -0.1 2,098.5 -2.9 -2.1 -6.2 -8.4 -4.3 -6.1 604.4 2.9 2.4 2.3 4.8 1.0 1.1 880.1 2,863.7 6. Business 7. Real estate 8. Consumer -3.9 -4.0 -1.2 2.0 -4.6 -2.3 361.4 9. Security 22.2 36.0 43.3 -48.5 71.6 91.4 65.0 Other -3.2 6.1 5.1 -10.7 2.5 10. -11.4 187.6 Short- and intermediate-term business credit 11. Business loans net of bankers acceptances -2.5 -2.3 Loans at foreign branches 2 -1.6 34.2 13. Sum of lines 11 and 12 -2.5 14. Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms 15. 16. 12. 17. 18. -6.3 -8.9 -4.4 -5.6 598.1 -40.9 -81.3 -30.8 0.0 22.8 -1.0 -7.7 -11.9 -5.4 -5.6 620.8 -10.4 -6.3 14.9 13.0 18.9 -5.1 141.2 Sum of lines 13 and 14 -4.0 -2.0 -3.7 -7.3 -0.9 -5.3 762.1 Bankers acceptances, 3 U.S. trade-related -16.2 -4.2 -22.9 -26.0 -31.0 n.a. 26.45 6.8 5.7 -4.2 -3.1 -0.4 n.a. 307.45 -1.6 0.1 -4.3 -6.6 -1.6 n.a. 1,099.35 Finance company loans to business 4 Total (sum of lines 15, 16, and 17) 1. Average of Wednesdays. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications. 2. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 4. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 5. March 1992 data. p--Preliminary. n.a.--Not available. -14SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (percent) 1989 1992 - - - - - - - -. - March highs 1992 -. - -.- - - -.- FOMC Dec-Jan Mar 31 Lows Change from: -.-- - - - -.-- -- -- - - Mar 89 Dec-Jan highs Lows May 14 -- --- - --- FOMC Mar 31 Short-term rates 2 9.85 3.94 3.94 3.80 -6.05 -0.14 -0.14 9.10 9.11 9.05 4.05 4.17 4.31 3.72 3.76 3.81 3.57 3.69 3.90 -5.53 -5.42 -5.15 -0.15 -0.07 0.09 -0.48 -0.48 -0.41 Commercial paper 1-month 3-month 10.05 10.15 4.28 4.28 4.01 3.94 3.83 3.84 -6.22 -6.31 -0.18 -0.10 -0.45 -0.44 Large negotiable CDs 3 1-month 3-month 6-month 10.07 10.32 10.08 4.16 4.23 4.39 3.95 3.89 3.89 3.72 3.87 -6.35 -6.57 -6.21 -0.23 -0.14 -0.02 -0.44 -0.48 -0.52 1-month 10.19 3-month 10.50 4.13 4.25 3.94 3.88 3.69 3.75 -6.50 -6.75 -0.25 -0.13 -0.44 -0.50 11.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 -5.00 0.00 0.00 U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 6.17 9.88 3-year 7.54 9.53 10-year 7.96 9.31 30-year 5.05 6.71 7.39 5.72 7.34 7.87 -4.16 -2.19 -1.44 0.67 0.63 0.48 -0.45 -0.20 -0.09 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) Federal funds Treasury bills 3 3-month 6-month 1-year 3.75 Eurodollar deposits 4 Bank prime rate Intermediate- and long-term rates 7.95 6.87 6.53 6.70 -1.25 0.17 -0.17 Corporate--A utility recently offered 10.47 8.87 8.46 8.69 -1.78 0.23 -0.18 Home mortgage rates FHLMC 30-yr. FRM FHLMC 1-yr. ARM 11.22 9.31 8.98 6.19 8.23 5.79 8.75 6.02 -2.47 -3.29 0.52 0.23 -0.23 -0.17 ------------------------- 1989 Record highs Date Lows Jan 3 1992 FOMC Mar 31 May 14 ----------------------. --------.-------.----------.------------- Percent change from: Record highs 1989 lows FOMC Mar 31 ------------------------- Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial 3397.58 231.85 NYSE Composite 418.99 AMEX Composite 644.92 NASDAQ (OTC) 4121.28 Wilshire 5/11/92 1/15/92 2/12/92 2/12/92 1/15/92 2144.64 3235.47 3368.88 227.72 154.00 223.25 391.79 305.24 395.04 576.46 378.56 603.77 2718.59 3961.55 4000.16 -0.84 -1.78 -6.49 -10.62 -2.94 57.08 47.87 28.35 52.28 47.14 4.12 2.00 -0.82 -4.52 0.97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1/ One-day quotes except as noted. 2/ Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for maintenance period ending May 13, 1992. 3/ Secondary market. 4/ Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5/ Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes 6/ Quotes for week ending Friday previous to date shown. -15- THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Developments in Foreign Industrial Countries In Japan, the unemployment rate (s.a.) increased slightly to 2.1 percent in March, while the job offers to applicants ratio (s.a.) declined an additional 0.1 percent, falling 15.6 percent below its year-earlier level. Errata The following are corrections to some of the calculations made in section IV of Greenbook Part 2: Page IV-12, first paragraph, last sentence should read "However, the Nikkei index recovered from its earlier losses and declined 3-1/2 percent, on balance, during the intermeeting period." Page IV-12, second complete paragraph, first sentence should read "In Canada, from March 31, 1992, through May 13, 1992, the call money rate declined 50 basis points, the three-month rate declined 75 basis points, and the yield on the bellwether bond declined 25 basis points." Page IV-13, first paragraph, last sentence should read "During the intermeeting period sterling rose 4-3/4 percent against the dollar and 3 percent against the mark, stock prices in the United Kingdom rose 12 percent, and the yield on the bellwether bond declined 80 basis points." Page IV-18, third full paragraph, first and second sentences should be replaced with "Equity prices dropped sharply during April, but later rebounded, and declined, on balance, by 3-1/2 percent from March 31 through May 13." 

Federal Reserve (1992, May 18). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19920519_part3

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19920519_part3,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1992},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19920519_part3},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}