Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC September 27, SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 1991 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Real GNP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. Personal income and outlays. .. Insured unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Erratum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . .. . 1 2 3 4 Tables Real gross national product and related items . . . Personal income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Real personal consumption expenditures . . . . . . . . . . 5 6 6 . . 7 . 8 . 9 . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . Monetary aggregates Commercial bank credit and short- and intermediate-term business credit. . . . . . . . ... Selected financial market quotations . . . . . . . .. 10 Charts Unemployment insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nonresidential construction and selected indicators. THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Erratum. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tables 11 12 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of imports and exports. . . . . . Erratum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .. . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . .13 . 13 Table Import and export price measures . . . . . . . 14 SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Real GNP The BEA now estimates that real GNP declined at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate; real GDP is now estimated to have edged up at a 0.3 percent rate. The revised figures show a sharper liquidation of nonfarm inventories; these stocks are now estimated to have run off at a $27.2 billion annual rate in the second quarter, compared with the previous estimate of a $21.6 billion drawdown. The estimate of final sales was essentially unchanged, on balance, from the previous report; excluding changes in CCC inventories, final sales are still shown to have edged down in the second quarter, after having fallen at a 3 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Prices, as measured by the GNP fixed- weight index, rose at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the second quarter, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. Based on more complete data, the BEA now estimates that economic profits edged down 0.6 percent to a $284.4 billion annual rate in the second quarter, a downward revision of $3-1/2 billion from last month's estimate. Profits of domestic corporations are still estimated to have turned up in the second quarter, though a bit less strongly than previously reported, while profits from foreign operations fell somewhat more sharply than was indicated in the earlier estimate. -2When measured in 1987 dollars, the BEA estimates that real GNP edged up 0.4 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter, after falling at a 2.8 percent rate in the first quarter. Personal Income and Outlays Personal income rose $20.3 billion at an annual rate in August, Private wages and salaries after a decline of $7.5 billion in July. increased $14 billion at an annual rate in August, accounting for the bulk of the rise in personal income. Real disposable personal income rose $5.1 billion in August, more than reversing the July decrease of $3.0 billion. The average level of real DPI in July and August was about 1/2 percent above its second-quarter average, consistent with the staff's expectation that this series would post a moderate gain in the third quarter. Personal outlays rose only $3.3 billion in nominal terms in August, with the increase held down by a decline in spending for motor vehicles and parts. As a result of the small rise in outlays relative to the increase in disposable income, the personal saving rate moved up in August to 3.9 percent, from the 3.6 percent reading in July. Real personal consumption expenditures decreased 0.2 percent in August, after rising 0.6 percent in July. In addition to the decline in spending on motor vehicles and parts, a downturn in outlays for furniture and appliances contributed to a 2.5 percent drop in spending for durable goods. Expenditures for nondurable goods fell 0.2 percent, pushed down by lower outlays for gasoline and oil. Meanwhile, spending on services increased 0.4 percent, reflecting gains in all major components. All told, the average level of real PCE in July and August was nearly 1 percent -3above its second-quarter average, supporting the staff's Greenbook projection of a sizable rise in third-quarter consumer spending. Insured Unemployment Initial claims for unemployment insurance during the week ended September 14, as seasonally adjusted by the staff, were unchanged for a fifth week, suggesting little change in labor market conditions since the mid-August reference week for the household and payroll surveys. The official BLS series, which uses different seasonal factors, rose sharply in the week ended September 14, after declining noticeably in the preceding week. The FRB seasonal adjustment procedures are specifically designed to deal with moving holidays, and BLS officials currently are reviewing a proposal by their staff to adopt methods of seasonal adjustment based on our approach. House and Senate conferees reached agreement on an unemployment compensation bill that would provide a temporary package of extended UI benefits to unemployed individuals who have exhausted their regular benefits. The bill would provide a minimum of seven weeks of additional benefits in all states, 13 weeks in states with total unemployment rates of at least 7 percent, and a maximum of 20 weeks of benefits in states with total unemployment rates of 8 percent or more; the compromise would cover jobless workers who have exhausted their regular UI benefits at any time since March 1, 1991. In addition, the bill would automatically designate a budget emergency, permitting the release of funds for the program. The conference report now goes to the Senate and House floors for approval before being sent to the President, who is expected to veto the legislation. -4In addition, the appendix to the nonfinancial Greenbook included a chart on the Department of Labor's UI benefit exhaustion rate. That rate is defined as the number of persons who exhausted their UI benefits in a given month as a percentage of the number of persons who began receiving benefits six months earlier (first payments). The rate is reported as a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonal fluctuations. Erratum On page I-7 in part 1 of the Greenbook, the sentence at the bottom of the page should read: "Constraints on credit availability are expected to ease gradually as the expansion progresses and asset quality improves." 1. First payments are approximately equal to the number of initial claims excluding those declared ineligible for benefits, lagged one or two weeks to reflect the time between the initial claim and the issuance of the first UI benefit check. 9/26/91 -5- REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Percent change from previous period at compound annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data, measured in 1982 dollars) 1989-Q4 to 1990-Q4 1991-01 Final 1991-Q2 Preliminary Gross national product 1. 1982 dollars .5 -2.8 -. 1 -. 5 2. Gross domestic product .4 -3.0 .8 .3 3. 4. Final sales Excluding CCC Inventory change 1.6 1.5 -2.9 -3.0 .2 -. 6 .3 -. 5 5. Consumer spending .1 -1.5 2.8 2.5 6. 7. 8. Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures 2.2 4.6 -5.4 -16.3 -18.4 -9.0 -1.8 2.0 -13.7 1.4 6.3 -14.0 9. Residential structures -25.3 2.7 1.6 8.1 -1.6 5.5 -4.0 -. 6 -. 8 4.3 4.5 -8.8 19.0 17.7 -28.1 -21.6 -27.2 -14.5 -12.6 -10.2 10. 11, Federal purchases Excluding CCC inventory change 5.2 4.4 -. 5 -1.6 12. State and local purchases 2.7 -1.9 13. Exports of goods and services 5.8 14. Imports of goods and services -. 5 .5 1991-Q2 Final ADDENDA: -5.1 2 15. Nonfarm inventory investment 16. Net exports 17. Nominal GNP 4.5 2.2 4.2 4.0 18. GNP fixed-weight price index 4.8 5.2 3.0 3.1 19. GNP implicit price deflator 4.0 5.2 4.2 4.5 20. Economic profits 3 -13.32 -2.7 1.7 -1.8 21. Personal saving rate 4.2 4.2 1 1. 2. Level, bIlions of constant dollars. Annualaverage. 3. Change in billions of current dollars. -33.82 4.62 7.1 4.2 PERSONAL INCOME (Average monthly change at an annual rate; billions of dollars) 1991 1990 Q1 20.5 Wages and salaries Private 1991 Q2 June 2.4 20.2 23.7 -7.5 20.3 10.9 8.2 -2.7 -6.6 17.9 16.6 26.8 25.3 -8.8 -11.9 13.7 14.0 Other labor income 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Proprietors' income Farm 2.1 .5 1.9 1.9 .2 -3.7 -3.2 -6.5 -1.6 -4.2 1.0 -3.1 Rent Dividend Interest .7 .7 1.6 -1.1 -. 6 -3.2 .2 .1 -2.0 .1 .1 -1.6 .4 .6 -1.3 .2 .4 -1.0 Transfer payments 5.2 9.6 4.0 2.4 2.3 6.3 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 1.1 2.5 1.2 1.8 .3 1.0 4.0 -2.0 .9 1.3 -4.5 .4 16.5 4.3 19.3 22.5 -3.1 20.0 -. 8 -4.8 7.2 14.0 -3.0 5.1 Total personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Aemo: Real disposable income July Aug. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (Percent change from the preceding period) 1991 1990 Q1 1991 Q2 -Annual ratePersonal consumption expenditures June July Aug. ---- Monthly rate---- .1 -1.5 2.5 .4 .6 -. 2 Durable goods Excluding motor vehicles -1.8 -1.1 -11.6 -. 7 -1.4 2.5 2.9 .4 1.8 1.2 -2.5 -1.0 Nondurable goods Excluding gasoline -2.4 -2.3 -1.8 -1.3 2.7 2.1 -. 5 -. 4 1.1 1.0 -. 2 .3 Services Excluding energy 2.5 3.1 2.1 3.2 4.1 3.6 .4 .5 .0 .2 .4 .5 Memo: Personal saving rate (percent) 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.6 3,9 -79/27/91 Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted INITIAL CLAIMS Thousands wtth FRB seasonals with BLS seasonals - --- - 500 , i 1 i II 'I V i // ? VRegular 415 I II \• tIi sep. 14 state programs 300 1990 1991 Nonresidential Construction and Selected Indicators1 (Dec. 1982 = 100, ratio scale) Total building 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 Other commercial Office - i- Construction 160 180 " Permits%/ I I I~ I 1985 1983 I 1 . I 1 1989 1987 1" 1991 1983 Industrial 1985 Institutional -- i 240 New commitments - r I 180 1987 1989 1991 - -Permits - 180 -_ 150 ' 90 Construction Construction 1 1983 I 1985 I I I 1987 - I I 1989 60 I 1991 I 1983 I 1985 I I L 1987 I I 1989 I 1991 1. Six-month moving average for all series shown. For contracts, total only indudes private, while individual sectors include private and public. New conrftments are the sum of permits and contracts. Contracts and permits extend through August. -9THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Erratum On page III-1 in part 2 of the Greenbook the second sentence in the second paragraph should read: "M2 was about unchanged last month, and for the third quarter as a whole its velocity appears likely to increase at around a 4 percent rate, despite the decline in market interest rates over the past several quarters." -10MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted) 19901 ----------1. 2. 3. Ml M2 M3 1991 Q2 1991 Q3pe 1991 Jul Percent change at annual 4.2 3.8 1.7 ------------ 7.3 4.8 1.9 7 -¾ -24 1.8 -3.9 -5.5 Percent change at annual 1991 Aug Growth 04 901991 Sep pe Sep 91pe rates--------------------9.2 0.1 -1.4 6 1 -1 7 24 1 Levels bil. * Aug 91 rates------------ Selected components 4. MN-A 5. 6. Currency Demand deposits 3.9 3- -2.0 6.2 2 11.0 -0.6 3.9 4.5 5 14 6.1 -8.5 8.8 3.9 6 -2 260.8 279.9 318.0 548.3 7. Other checkable deposits 3.5 13.5 13h 8.1 14.9 11 8. M2 minus M12 3.7 4.0 -2J -5.8 -3.1 -1 3.8 -6.2 -12½ -60.6 47.4 11.0 9.9 7.5 -5.5 -2.2 -7.3 6.6 7.3 16.7 -1.8 -1.5 18.4 -13.7 -16.1 5.1 11.6 -1.6 -9.0 10.0 -22.1 -22.0 9.2 10.4 7.8 -15.6 2.6 -28.3 -6.4 -10.5 -121 -12.9 -7.9 -8 751.6 -9.5 -3.5 -23.9 -7.6 0.3 -34.8 -15' -18.5 -21 -15 -45 484.3 390.5 93.8 20.2 -12.5 -12.1 23.0 -27.7 -32.3 31 0 -13 144.8 78.3 63.1 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. S. Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares Commercial banks 3 Savings deposits plus MMDAs Small time deposits Thrift institutions 3 Savings deposits plus MMDAs Small time deposits 7. M3 minus M24 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. Large time deposits At commercial banks, net s At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual fund shares Term RPs, NSA Term Eurodollars, NSA 12.4 -414 -38.1 -16.6 -8.8 -47.9 -5 -174 -12.6 18.6 -14.8 25.4 -3.1 -16.9 -8E -13.6 2525.0 9 68.4 352.8 1235.9 631.0 604.8 870.6 365.2 505.5 ----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars---MEMORANDA: 24. Managed liabilities at commercial banks (25+26) Large time deposits, gross 25. Nondeposit funds 26. Net due to related foreign 27. institutions 28. Other 29. U.S. 7 government deposits at commercial banks8 0.0 -2.6 2.6 -3.4 0.3 -3.7 -3h -3 -4 -4.0 -4.4 0.4 -5.5 -0.5 -5.0 697.5 447.0 250.5 2.2 0.3 -3.7 0.0 0 -4 0.0 0.4 -2.6 -2.5 2 1 16.6 233.8 0.3 -3.5 -k -2.7 3.3 -2 23.8 1. Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. 2. Nontransactions MH is seasonally adjusted as a whole. 3. Commercial bank savings deposits excluding HMDAs grew during August and September at rates of 17.6 percent and 9 percent, respectively. At thrift institutions, savings deposits excluding MMDAs grew during August and September at rates of 9.6 percent and 8 percent, respectively. 4. The non-M2 component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. 5. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift institutions. 6. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. 7. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money (including borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. 8. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. pe - preliminary estimate -11COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT (Percentage changes at annual rates, based on seasonally adjusted data) __ 1989:Dec. to 1990:Dec. __ 1991 Q1 02 --------1. 2. Total loans and securities at banks Securities 3. U.S. 4. Other securities 5. 5.3 Total loans July Aug Commercial Bank Credit - -------------------- 4.0 1.7 5.5 1 2.5 11.9 16.9 13.9 1.5.0 19.8 -3.1 5.7 4.3 8.6 government securities June Levels bil.$ Aug .0 -.7 2761.6 16.2 9.0 682.4 25.0 24.5 17.3 512.6 -9.3 -5.5 -7.6 -14.7 169.9 1.5 -1.5 1.9 -5.0 -4.0 2079.1 6. Business loans 1.9 -. 4 -6.7 -5.1 -7.0 -11.9 620.5 7. Real estate loans 9.5 3.4 5.3 6.0 -3.5 -4.3 853.9 S. Consumer loans 1.2 2.6 -3.2 -4.8 -7.7 -2.3 368.9 9. Security loans 4.4 -1 .7.7 -5.2 -45.2 103.4 28.8 42.6 -2.4 11.6 -9.4 30.3 -22.2 13.2 193.2 LO. Other loans Sho.rt- and Intermediate-Term Business Credit ---------- Business loans net of bankers acceptances 12. Loans at foreign branches2 13. Sum of lines 11 & 12 14. Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms 15. Sum of lines 13 & 14 16. Bankers acceptances: related ' 17. .3 1,9 -3.1 19.3 -6.7 -4.6 -7.1 -12.8 614.1 -35.7 -5.1 5.1 -35.6 22.9 2.5 .2 -7.9 -4.6 -6.7 -13.6 637.0 12.2 -5.1 -10.2 -9.0 8.3 -32.1 141.9 4.2 -.7 -8.4 -5.6 -3.8 -17.0 778.9 -9.6 -24.3 -22.0 8.3 -24.7 -29.4 27.9 3.6 -1.6 -8.8 -17.4 806.8 13.1 4.7 4.6 5.8 .0 U.S. trade Line 15 plus bankers acceptances: U.S. trade related 18. Finance company loans to business 3 19. Total short- and intermediateterm business credit (sum of lines 17 & 18) -5.3 -4.9 -4.7 7.3 -1.7 6.0 -1.8 n.a. n.a. 299.25 1117.9 5 - 1. Average of Wednesdays. 2. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 4. Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. 5. July data. p--preliminary. P' -- not available -12SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (percent) 1989 March highs 1990 Dec lowe Aug highs 1991 Change from: FOMC Aug 20 Sept 26 Aug 90 FOMC highs Aug 20 Short-term rates Federal funds 2 9.85 8.45 8.21 5.61 5.31 -2.90 Treasury bills 3 3-month 6-month 1-year 9.09 9.11 9.05 7.53 7.29 7.11 7.59 7.51 7.45 5.11 5.13 5.17 5.13 5.17 5.17 -2.46 -2.34 -2.28 0.02 0.04 0.00 Commercial paper 1-month 3-month 10.05 10.15 8.51 8.22 8-10 8.05 5.62 5.62 5.53 5.51 -2.57 -2.54 -0.09 -0.11 Large negotiable CDs 3 1-month 3-month 6-month 10.07 10.32 10.08 8.52 8.22 8.01 8.14 8.18 8.25 5.55 5.55 5.63 5.40 5.39 5.56 -2.74 -2.79 -2.69 -0.15 -0.16 -0.07 Eurodollar deposits 4 1-month 3-month 10.19 10.50 8.38 8.25 8.13 8.19 5.56 5.56 5.38 5.38 -2.75 -2.81 -0.18 -0.18 Bank prime rate 11.50 10.50 10.00 8.50 8.00 -2-00 -0.50 U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 7.69 3-year 9.88 7.77 10-year 9.53 7.83 30-year 9.31 8.50 9.05 9.17 6.58 7.81 8.09 6.35 7.56 7.89 -2.15 -1.49 -1.28 -0.23 -0.25 -0.20 Municipal revenue 5 (Bond Buyer) -0.30 Intermediate- and long-term rates 7.95 7.28 7.80 7.03 6.91 -0.89 -0.12 Corporate--A utility recently offered 10.47 9.29 10.50 9.21 9.02 -1.48 -0.19 Home mortgage rates 6 S&L fixed-rate S&L ARM. 1-yr. 11.22 9.31 9.69 8.34 10.29 8.39 9.19 7.05 8.95 6.83 -1.34 -1.56 -0.24 -0.22 1991 1989 Record highs Lowv Date Jan 3 FOMC Aug 20 Sept 26 Percent change from: Record highs 1989 lows FOMC Aug 20 - -- - - -- - -- -- -- - --- - -- - ----------------------------------------- . . Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial 3055.23 NYSE Composite 217.17 397.03 AMEX Composite 527.82 NASDAQ (OTC) Wilshire 3803.35 One-day Average closest to date October 8/28/91 2144.64 2913.69 3017.22 8/28/91 154.00 208.27 212.44 10/10/89 305.24 360.30 373.62 378.56 502.05 526.94 9/25/91 8/28/91 2718.59 3646.43 3730.26 quotes except as noted. for two-week reserve maintenance period to date shown. Last observation is average for the maintenance period ending 2. 1991. -1.24 -2.18 -5.90 -0.17 -1.92 40.69 37.95 22.40 39.20 37.21 3.55 2.00 3.70 4.96 2.30 3/ Secondary market. 4/ Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a;m. London time. 5/ Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes. 6/ Quotes for week ending Friday closest to date shown. -13- THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of Imports and Exports Import prices reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a rise of 0.4 percent in August. The price of oil imports rose sharply, and that of non-oil imports fell slightly, with declines concentrated in food and industrial supplies. Non-agricultural export prices also fell slightly in August, with declines concentrated in industrial supplies. Erratum On page 1-34 in part 1 of the Greenbook, the sentence at the bottom of the page should read: "Exports of corn to the Soviet Union increased sharply in July, and weekly data from the Department of Agriculture indicate continued strength through the first half of September." -14IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE MEASURES (percent change from previous period, annual rate) Year 1991-Q2 1990-Q2 Quarters 1990 1991 Q4 Q1 Q2 (Quarterly Average, AR) Months 1991 Jul Aug (Monthly Rates) --------------------- BLS Prices--------------------Imports, Total Foods, Feeds, Bev. Industrial Supplies Ind Supp Ex Oil* Capital Goods Automotive Products Consumer Goods 2.9 5.8 3.0 -0.9 2.8 5.3 0.5 24.9 5.2 77.1 2.7 8.2 10.3 4.5 -11.9 7.8 -40.4 -0.2 4.9 6.6 2.5 -7.4 3.0 -19.1 -4.4 -5.4 1.2 -4.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 -0.6 0.4 -0.3 1.0 -0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.6 2.2 307.2 6.3 -73.1 3.7 -41.7 -2.7 0.8 -0.5 4.5 -0.1 1.4 -4.0 -0.8 3.6 2.7 4.4 4.4 -16.5 15.9 2.1 3.5 3.7 0.6 8.3 -9.6 5.6 3.5 6.0 -1.2 8.1 -12.0 3.5 2.0 6.3 -0.7 -4.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 5.3 -0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -3.7 2.1 -14.2 7.9 6.7 -0.6 6.7 -2.7 -3.9 -0.2 3.1 -0.1 Memo: Oil Non-oil Exports, Total Foods, Feeds, Bev. Industrial Supplies Capital Goods Automotive Products Consumer Goods Memo: Agricultural Nonagricultural ------------- Prices in the GNP Accounts------------Fixed-Weight Imports, Total 3.0 34.4 -18.3 -11.3 8.4 2.3 346.2 5.3 -75.0 4.0 -47.5 -3.7 1.6 -0.8 2.1 5.7 -11.8 9.5 0.4 7.8 -1.0 -0.4 13.6 -2.9 Imports, Total Oil Non-oil -2.2 8.3 -3.3 27.1 345.0 0.6 -20.8 -75.0 -4.7 -18.3 -47.4 -10.7 Exports, Total Ag Nonag -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 3.6 -11.8 5.6 -5.2 7.8 -6,6 0.8 13.6 0.1 Oil Non-oil Exports, Total Ag Nonag Deflators */ Months not for publication. 

Federal Reserve (1991, September 30). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19911001_part3

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19911001_part3,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1991},
  month = {Sep},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19911001_part3},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}