Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS III - FOMC June 28, 1991 SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Personal income and outlays. . . Probability of expansion . . . . Revised greensheets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IfI II If Tables . . . . . . . . . . . Personal income . Real personal consumption expenditures Recent data on coincident indicators . Revised greensheets. . . . . . . . . . . Composite index of leading indicators. . . Probability of expansion . . . . . . . . . S 3 S 3 . 4 .6-11 . . . . . . . . . . . . THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Tables Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and . . . . . . . intermediate-term business credit .. . Selected financial market quotations . . .. . . . . . . THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of imports and exports . Erratum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . 16 Table Import and export price measures . SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Personal Income and Outlays Personal income increased $23.8 billion at an annual rate in May. A rise in private wages and salaries, which accompanied the increases last month in employment and hours, accounted for more than half of the gain. While personal interest and farm proprietors' income fell again in May, nonfarm proprietors' income rose for the fourth consecutive month. In real terms, disposable personal income rose $10 billion in May, more than offsetting a $5.1 billion decline in April. But with increases in outlays outpacing gains in income, the personal saving rate fell back to 3.6 percent in May, from its upward revised level of 4.0 percent in April. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.9 percent in May. Outlays for durable goods rose 2.4 percent, in part because of a 4.0 percent increase in expenditures for motor vehicles. Nondurable goods outlays increased 0.6 percent, with gains being recorded in most major components except gasoline and oil. Expenditures for service items rose 0.6 percent in May, as unusually warm weather pushed outlays for electricity up 9-1/4 percent. Excluding energy items, spending on services rose a modest 0.2 percent; the gain in this category was held down by declines in the personal business and net foreign travel components of spending. Probability of Expansion The Commerce Department's composite index of leading economic indicators rose 0.8 percent in May--its fourth consecutive monthly increase. Initial claims, manufacturers' new orders, and building permits accounted for almost all of the increase in May. A decline in the index of consumer expectations provided some offset, while other components were little changed. The May reading implies a 95 percent probability that a cyclical trough has alreay occurred or is imminent (chart). The composite index of coincident economic indicators edged up 0.2 percent in May, the first gain posted by the index since July 1990. All of the available components of the index rose last month, providing further evidence that the economy has bottomed out. Revised Greensheets The following pages show revised versions of the greensheets, which incorporate the Commerce Department's final estimate of GNP for the first quarter of 1991. These data were in line with our expectations and did not necessitate modifications to the forecast for subsequent quarters. -3- PERSONAL INCOME (Average monthly change at an annual rate; billions of dollars) 1990 1991 1990 Q4 Q1 Mar. Apr. May Total personal income 20.5 15.2 2.4 17.1 4.7 23.8 Wages and salaries Private 10.9 8.2 2.1 -.2 -2.7 -6.6 3.7 1.3 4.6 4.1 15.7 14.4 Other labor income 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Proprietors' income Farm 2.1 .5 4.9 4.8 1.9 1.9 12.6 11.5 -3.3 -5.2 2.0 -1.3 Rent Dividend Interest .7 .7 1.6 -. 6 .6 .5 -1.1 -. 6 -3.2 -. 2 -2.3 -3.2 .3 -. 1 -2.0 .7 .4 -1.0 Transfer payments 5.2 6.7 9.6 5.6 4.5 6.1 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 1.1 .1 2.5 .2 .3 1.1 4.0 1.9 -2.0 1.0 2.0 1.4 16.5 13.2 4.3 16.1 2.7 22.4 -. 8 -1.1 -4.8 10.3 -5.1 10.0 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Memo: Real disposable income 1991 REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (Percent change from the preceding period) 1990 1990 1991 Q4 Q1 -Annual ratePersonal consumption expenditures .1 1991 Mar. Apr. May ----Monthly rate---- -3.4 -1.5 1.1 -. 6 .9 Durable goods Excluding motor vehicles -1.8 -1.1 -12.3 -5.8 -11.7 -.8 3.8 .2 -3.6 -. 4 2.4 1.3 Nondurable goods Excluding gasoline -2.4 -2.3 -6.5 -7.3 -1.8 -1.3 .5 .4 -. 8 -. 7 .6 .8 Services Excluding energy 2.5 3.1 1.8 1.8 2.1 3.2 .6 .3 .4 .5 .6 .2 Memo: Personal saving rate (percent) 4.6 4.2 4.2 3.6 4.0 3.6 RECENT DATA ON COINCIDENT INDICATORS ~ ~ 1990 1990 ---- Dec. Industrial production (index) Capacity utilization 1991 Jan. I- Feb. Mar. 1991 I Apr. May 107.2 106.6 105.7 105.0 105.3 105.8 (percent) 80.6 80.0 79.1 78.4 78.5 78.7 Total civilian employment (millions) 117.6 116.9 116.9 116.8 117.4 116.6 Nonfarm civilian employment (millions) 114.3 113.8 113.7 113.7 114.2 113.3 Nonfarm payroll employment (millions) 109.6 109.4 109.2 108.9 108.7 108.8 Nonfarm payroll hours (billions) 203.3 200.8 201.2 200.4 199.5 200.4 Personal income (billions $82) 3400.2 3366.9 3366.5 3378.7 3372.4 3382.1 Disposable income (billions $82) 2883.5 2857.8 2858.9 2869.2 2864.1 2874.1 Personal income less transfer payments (billions $82) 2883.2 2838.3 2837.0 2845.2 2837.2 2843.7 Retail sales (billions) 149.8 147.8 151.1 151.5 150.9 152.5 Retail sales (billions $82) 118.8 117.1 119.7 120.3 119.8 120.6 PCE (billions $82) 2672.8 2643.1 2660.1 2688.0 2670.7 2694.3 Manufacturing and trade sales (billions) 534.4 527.1 527.9 523.1 529.6 Manufacturing and trade sales (billion $82)' 461.2 457.1 459.1 457.0 464.0 129.3 127.3 126.6 126.0 126.0 Composite coincident index 1. Components of composite coincident index. Note: Low values reached by indicators since July 1990 are in bold. 126.2 6/28/91 -5COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS Percent change 6 1 I I I I I I I I It 1970 1 I4 I SI 1 I I I I 1976 1979 2 2 I tI I 11i II I 1973 I I I I I I I- I-, 1I 1--h -- ! 1982 1-- I I 1985 I-I - f t- '-- 1988 1991 PROBABILITY OF EXPANSION * 1990 1970 1973 1976 1979 II I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 1982 1985 1988 *Each probability represents the likelihood that an expansion has began or will begin during the next three months. 1991 4 4 -6- June 28, CONFIDENTIAL - FR CLASS II FOMC 1991 STAFF GNP PROJECTIONS Percent changes, annual rate GHP fixed-weight Nominal GNP price index Real GNP Consumer Price Index <1> 6/28/91 5/8/91 5/8/91 6/28/91 5/8/91 6/28/91 5/8/91 6/28/91 -- - - - - - - - - -- "" ----- - -'- - " -- " - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - - Unemployment rate (percent) 5/8/91 6/28/91 - - - - -- - - - - Annual changes: 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 <2> <2> <2> 7. 6. 5. 3. 6. Quarterly changes: 1989 01 Q2 03 04 q0 01 <2> <2> <2> <2> 7. 5. 5. 3- 02 Q3 04 1991 01 <2> Q2 Q3 Q4 1992 3.6 1.6 1.7 .3 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 1.7 .4 1.4 -1.6 5.3 5.3 5.6 5.9 5.3 5.3 5.6 5.9 -2.8 6.5 6.5 -. 2 6.8 6.8 4.1 4.0 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 01 Q2 03 04 Two-quarter changes: <3> 1989 Q2 <2> 04 <2> 6.7 4.5 6.7 4.5 2.6 1.0 2.6 1.0 4.7 3.4 4.7 3.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 1990 02 <2> 04 <2> 5.9 3.1 5.9 3.1 1.1 -.1 1.1 -.1 5.3 4.4 5.3 4.4 .0 .6 .0 .6 1991 Q2 04 2.8 7.4 2.8 7.8 -1.3 4.4 4.2 3.5 4.2 3.5 .9 -. 2 .9 -. 2 1992 02 04 6.6 5.3 6.6 5.6 3.0 2.5 3.6 3.0 3.8 3.3 -. 3 -. 1 -. 2 -. 1 -. 5 .0 .6 .7 -. 4 -. 5 .0 .6 .7 -. 3 -1.5 4.0 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.1 3.8 3.5 Four-quarter changes: <4> 1988 1989 '90 1 2 <1> <2> <3> <4> 04 <2> Q4 <2> Q4 <2> Q4 Q4 7.8 5.6 4.5 5.1 5.9 7.8 5.6 4.5 5.3 6.1 3.5 1.8 .5 1.2 3.0 For all urban consumers. Actual. Percent change from two quarters earlier. Percent change from four quarters earlier. June 28, 1991 CONFIDENTIAL - FR CLASS II FOMC GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Seasonally adjusted; annual rate) Projection S Units 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 IBillions of $ IBillions of 82$ F I (Percent change*I 3772.2 3501.4 4014.9 3618.7 4231.6 3717.9 4515.6 3845.3 4873.7 4016.9 5200.8 4117.7 5465.1 4157.3 5673.0 4160.6 6048.3 4293.5 5.1 6.4 3.6 4.3 1.9 2.1 5.0 4.2 3.5 2.6 1.8 1.1 .5 -.5 1.5 1.4 2.8 3.0 I 4.7 5.6 4.6 4.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.5 4.5 4.0 1.7 1.2 1.6 -.1 .6 .6 2.4 3.5 1 4.1 10.8 2.3 3.5 4.6 7.0 3.3 5.0 3.8 11.5 2.9 2.1 2.3 -1.2 1.3 4.1 4.1 9.3 2.4 3.7 1.2 -1.4 .6 2.4 .1 -1.8 -2.4 2.5 1.6 1.3 .2 2.7 2.8 4.1 2.0 2.9 Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Residential structures 13.8 14.9 11.8 6 .1 3.7 4.6 1.9 5.8 -5.5 .4 -17.7 11.6 6.1 .8.2 .8 -2.2 5.3 8.2 -2.7 -.1 4.5 5.4 1.7 -7.1 2.2 4.6 -5.4 -10.2 -3.8 -2.8 -7.5 -1.2 5.9 8.6 -4.0 8.8 Exports Imports 5.9 17.4 -2.4 4.5 10.6 10.0 19.8 10.4 14.0 5.5 10.1 4.5 5.8 -. 5 3.5 2.5 6.0 7.5 Government purchases Federal Defense State and local 7.9 13.0 6.5 4.4 8.6 13.3 7.1 4.9 3.1 .5 6.0 5.2 2.0 1.5 4.0 2.3 1.1 -1.6 -1.8 3.1 .3 -2.8 -2.1 2.6 3.8 5.2 4.0 2.7 -.4 -.5 -2.5 -.4 -1.0 -4.5 -7.6 1.6 62.3 57.8 -84.0 9.1 13.4 -104.3 5.6 8.0 -129.7 22.8 28.7 -118.5 23.6 26.5 -75.9 23.8 18.7 -54.1 -3.6 -5.1 -33.8 -13.5 -15.6 -.6 29.1 26.8 -10.1 8.6 6.6 4.6 8.2 7.8 5.6 4.5 5.3 6.1 94.5 7.5 97.5 7.2 99.5 7.0 102.2 6.2 105.5 5.5 108.4 5.3 110.3 5.5 109.2 6.7 4.7 80.4 1.9 79.5 1.4 79.0 6.5 81.4 4.5 83.9 1.1 83.9 .3 82.3 .6 78.1 4.3 79.3 1 1.77 10.35 7.92 2.43 1.74 11.03 8.22 2.82 1.81 11.44 8.22 3.22 1.62 10.23 7.06 3.18 1.49 10.65 7.55 3.10 1.38 9.89 7.06 2.83 1.19 9.53 6.92 2.61 1.01 8.69 6.31 2.38 1.15 9.43 6.85 2.58 Nominal personal income Real disposable income Personal saving rate FPercent change*) [Percent change*I (Percent F 8.4 4.3 6.1 6.6 2.7 4.4 5.8 3.3 4.1 8.1 2.7 2.9 7.6 4.3 4.2 6.8 1.7 4.6 5.6 -.4 4.6 4.6 1.2 3.9 6.8 2.8 4.0 Corp. profits with IVA & CCAdj Profit share of GKP Percent change* [Percent 1 .7.4 7.1 9.2 7.0 -5.6 6.7 17.4 6.8 8.2 6.9 -16.8 6.0 -.7 5.5 15.7 5.4 4.2 5.7 Federal govt. surplus/deficit State and local govt. surplus Exc. social insurance funds FBillions of $ -169.6 64.6 19.8 -196.9 65.1 13.8 -206.9 62.8 5.6 -158.2 51.0 -8.3 -141.7 46.5 -16.4 -134.3 46.4 -19.9 -166.0 35.4 -34.0 -150.5 40.4 -32.1 -154.8 69.3 -6.8 3.4 3.7 3.3 4.2 5.0 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 1.3 3.9 3.0 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.0 4.8 5.3 6.3 5.3 3.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 4.6 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.7 ECI hourly compensation 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.4 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.1 3.7 Nonfarm business sector Output per hour Compensation per hour Unit labor costs 1.5 4.2 2.6 1.6 4.6 3.0 1.3 4.9 3.6 2.3 3.7 1.4 1.8 4.2 2.3 -1.6 2.2 3.9 -.3 4.4 4.7 2.6 4.2 1.5 1.6 3.8 2.2 EXPENDITURES ---------- Nominal GNP Real GNP Real GNP Gross domestic purchases Final sales Private dom. final purchases ( I Personal consumpt'ion expend. Durables Nondurables Services Change in business inventories Nonfarm Net exports Nominal GhP F Billions of 825$ Billions of 8251 IBillions of 82$1 I I IPercent change*t EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION Nonfarm payroll employment Unemployment rate FMillions Industrial production index Capacity utilization rate-mfg. ]Percent Housing starts Auto sales Domestic Foreign Millions Millions IMillions IMillions IPercent (Percent change*l 1 110.9 6.4 INCOME AND SAVING *-----------------I F PRICES AND COSTS GNP implicit deflator GNP fixed-weight price index Cons. & fixed invest, prices CPI Exc, food and energy Percent change*F 1 , * Percent changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. -8June 28, 1991 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Seasonally adjusted; annual rate) CONFIDENTIAL - FR CLASS II FOMC S1988 1989 - 01 Units i 1990 ------------------------------ Q2 03 04 01 02 Q3 Q4 ------------------ Q1 02 I EXPENDITURES Nominal GNP Real GNP Billions of $ 4735.8 Billions of 82$1 3970.2 Real GNP Gross domestic purchases Percent Change 4831.4 4005.8 4917.9 4032.1 5009.8 4059.3 5101.3 4095.7 5174.0 4112.2 5238.6 4129.7 5289.3 4133.2 5375.4 4150.6 5443.3 4155.1 5.1 1.6 3.6 3.0 2.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 3.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.8 .3 -1.2 1.7 .5 .4 1.3 7.1 6.7 5.1 4.8 1.1 3.0 4.6 1.7 2.4 .8 1.7 1.4 1.8 4.1 .9 -1.5 3.8 2.4 -.7 -1.2 6.9 21.8 2.6 2.7 3.7 2.0 2.9 3.5 -1.1 4.1 4.5 3.5 14.1 1.2 1.9 -.3 -6.0 .6 .9 1.3 5.6 -1.7 2.1 4.6 9.6 3.9 3.5 -.8 -13.0 -.2 3.1 1.1 14.4 -3.2 .1 .2 -9.5 -1.9 5.1 11.4 20.3 -10.5 I -6.8 15.7 17.9 9.9 6.8 1.6 2.2 -.3 .4 -6.3 -5.5 : -8.7 -.4 8.9 9.5 7.5 -3.6 6.9 12.2 -8.2 -11.3 6.3 6.1 7.1 -7.6 -3.8 -5.2 1.3 -5.5 5.0 5.7 2.3 15.1 -4.7 -3.3 -9.0 -11.2 31.7 .5 4.4 .3 5.4 9.2 16.7 12.4 15.8 -2.3 12.4 12.8 -. 5 6.4 13.5 1.7 11.2 2.5 -5.0 .7 -9,2 -24.1 -5.6 3.9 3.3 3.5 -1.4 3.2 -3.8 -10.4 -5.0 1.2 15.7 33.6 4.9 4.3 -3.3 -9.1 -10.9 1.3 4.0 7.0 3.2 1.8 -2.4 -7.9 7.2 1.8 3.0 -. 4 -7.0 5.6 2.9 .4 -1.7 4.8 6.2 16.4 3.3 -.6 31.0 28.8 -77.3 16.9 19.2 -72.2 32.6 31.0 -78.5 14.0 27.2 -75.7 26.1 16.4 -51.1 25.5 21.5 -53.3 24.6 21.7 -64.1 18.9 15.3 -47.9 -2.2 -8.2 -35.4 9.5 11.6 -44.6 7.8 8,3 7.4 7.7 7.5 5.8 5.1 3.9 6.7 5.1 I 104.3 5.7 105.1 5.5 105.9 5.5 106.8 5.3 107.6 5.2 108,1 5.3 108.5 5.3 109.0 5.3 109.7 5.3 1 Final sales Private dom. final purchases Personal consumption expend. Durables Nondurables Services I I 15.6 Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Residential structures I 1 I I Exports Imports Government purchases Federal Defense State and local Change in business inventories Nonfarm et exports [Billions of 82$1 IBillions of 82$1 [Billions of 82$1 Nominal GNP [Percent change EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION Nonfarm payroll employment Unemployment rate [Millions IPercent* Industrial production index Capacity utilization rate-mfg. (Percent IPercent* 5.0 83.1 4.2 83.6 5.9 84.3 2.8 84.6 2.7 84.7 2.8 84.5 -1.2 83.7 .2 82.9 .6 82.7 4.2 82.8 Housing starts Auto sales Domestic Foreign IMillions IMillions [Millions [Millions 1.43 10.91 7.60 1 1 3.30 1.49 10.67 7.50 3.17 1.48 10.15 7.20 2.95 1.55 10.88 7.89 2.99 1.46 10.03 7.08 2.95 1.36 10.26 7.26 3.00 1.35 10.20 7.36 2.84 1.35 9.09 6.56 2.53 1.43 10.01 7.11 2.90 1.20 9.53 6.78 2.75 change 110.2 5.3 INCOME AND SAVING Nominal personal income Real disposable income Personal saving rate [Percent change I IPercent change IPercent* 6.4 7.3 4.0 8.6 2.7 4.1 8.1 4.9 4.5 7.4 2.3 4.1 11.6 4.2 5.2 5,8 -1.2 4.6 3.7 2.7 4.1 6.2 1.2 4.6 8.6 2.5 4.9 5.3 .3 5.0 Corp. profits with IVA & CCAdj Profit share of GNP (Percent change J [Percent* 1 9.5 7.0 6.6 7.0 -1.7 6.8 19.5 7.0 -23.2 6.4 -7.0 6.2 -17.1 5.9 -19.1 5.5 8.4 5.5 13.9 5.6 Federal govt. surplus/deficit State and local govt. surplus Exc. social insurance funds IBillions 1 -153.7 1 45.5 -15.6 -136.9 48.3 -14.1 -120.1 46.8 -17.0 -156.3 45.2 -19.0 -132.6 48.9 -16.2 -122.7 50.3 -15.6 -131.7 48.1 -18.7 -150.1 38.5 -29.1 -168.3 38.1 -30.2 2.7 3.9 2.9 3.2 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.5 4.7 4.7 5.5 4.5 5.2 4.6 4.7 4.4 5.0 4.4 4.6 3.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.9 3.9 4.6 5.3 6.0 4.2 3.2 3.1 2.3 3.3 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.6 3.9 4.7 4.8 6.6 6.8 7.5 5.9 4.7 3.9 2.6 3.8 4.9 5.2 5.2 3.8 5.1 4.2 4.9 5.3 4.4 5.6 5.1 4.7 2.4 -2.2 -.5 5.1 5.7 2.8 5.3 2.5 .2 3.8 3.6 -2.7 3.3 6.1 -. 3 1,7 2.0 -1.0 1.6 2.6 -2.5 2.3 5.0 -1.3 3.9 5.3 .3 5.0 4.7 of $ [ -166.0 38.6 -30.4 PRICES AND COSTS GNP implicit deflator GNP fixed-weight price index Cons. & fixed invest, prices CPI Exc. food and energy CI [Percent change 1 hourly compensation** donfarm business sector Output per hour Compensation per hour Unit labor costs * Not at an annual rate. ** Private industry workers I I June 28, CONFIDENTIAL - FR CLASS II FOMC 1991 GROSS NATIONAL PRODOCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Seasonally adjusted; annual rate) Projection -------------------------------------"" " " 1990 S Units I 3 1991 04 01 02 1992 03 Q3 04 01 02 04 EXPENDITUWES Nominal GSP PRal GNP Billions of $ 5514.6 Billions of 82$1 4170.0 5527.3 4153.4 5557.7 4124.1 5603.3 4126.5 5713.2 4174.8 5817.9 4217.2 5920.9 4251.5 6007.8 4280.3 6090.9 4307.8 6173.4 4334.3 Real GSP IPercent Change 1.4 -1.6 -2.8 .2 4.8 4.1 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.5 Gross domestic purchases I 1.6 -5.1 -4.3 1.6 4.1 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.8 I 1.9 2.3 1.4 -3.8 -2.9-5.1 .9 2.4 2.7 2.6 1.7 2.9 2.1 3.4 2.3 3.5 2.7 3.6 2.4 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.3 -3.4 -12.3 -6.5 3.4 7.7 .3 2.2 5.2 1.2 2.5 5.0 1.2 3.0 6.5 1.8 2.8 3.5 2.2 2.7 3.4 2.1 2.7 3.0 2.1 I 3.0 1.8 2.1 4.1 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 I I 8.9 10.2 5.1 -19.8 .1 6.3 -18.2 -20.6 -16.3 -18.4 -9.0 -25.3 -2.8 -1.8 -6.1 3.7 1.5 4.6 -8.3 12.1 3.5 6.5 -6.5 9.6 4.4 7.6 -6.6 8.2 5.9 8.8 -4.7 9.1 6.5 9.0 -3.0 9.6 6.8 9.0 -1.9 8.3 final sales Private dom. final purchases I I I Personal consumption expend. Durables Nondurables Services Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Residential structures I I I 1 1 Exports Imports .5 -1.0 6.4 8.2 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.8 -8.8 7.7 1.9 10.4 8.5 8.1 5.9 7.6 4.7 4.6 12.1 4.9 -1.3 -. 5 2.7 -1.9 1.5 4.2 -1.3 -. 4 -. 4 -. 8 -3.7 -. 1 -1.4 -4.6 -7.5 .9 -1.4 -4.7 -7.8 1.1 -1.1 -4.6 -7.7 1.5 -. 9 -4.4 -7.5 1.7 -. 7 -4.5 -7.6 2.0 -26.4 -28.5 -8.8 -25.0 -28.1 7.1 -31.8 -33.9 -6.7 -10.8 -11.9 .3 13.4 11.6 -3.0 25.6 23.3 -6.6 30.5 28.2 -10.0 29.7 27.4 -10.3 30.4 28.1 -13.5 .9 2.2 3.3 8.1 7.5 7.3 6.0 5.6 5.5 110.2 5.6 109.8 5.9 109.2 6.5 108.8 6.8 109.1 6.8 109,7 6.6 110.2 6.5 110.7 6.4 111.1 6.4 111.5 6.3 6.9 I 7.6 Government purchases Federal Defense State and local I 1.2 1 2.7 2.0 Change in business inventories Nonfarm %et exports IBillions of 82$1 IBillions of 82$1 IBillions of 8251 4.7 4.7 -46.5 IPercent change 1 5.3 ainal GtP I -1.5 -11.7 -1.8 11.0 -11.8 SMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION ------------------------Nonfarm payroll employment Unemployment rate I Industrial production index Capacity utilization rate-mfg. IPercent change 1 IPercent* I 3.9 82.9 -7.0 80.8 -9.6 78.0 .0 77.4 7.2 78.2 5.7 78.7 5.1 79.0 4.8 79.3 3.8 79.4 3.7 79.5 Mousing starts Auto sales Domestic Foreign Millions Millions IMillions Millions 1.13 9.68 7,21 2.47 1.04 8.93 6.59 2.34 .92 8.25 6.00 2.25 .99 8.43 6.06 2.37 1.05 8.96 6.55 2.41 1.07 9.15 6.65 2.50 1.11 9.35 6.80 2.55 1.13 9.40 6.83 2.57 1.16 9.45 6.86 2.59 1.19 9.50 6.90 2.60 5.0 -.7 4.2 3.5 -3.5 4.2 1.5 -1.5 4.2 4.2 1.8 3.9 5.4 1.3 3.7 7.3 3.2 3.9 8.4 3.9 4.1 6.3 2.4 4.0 6.2 2.4 4.0 6.5 2.6 4.0 -7.5 5.5 -14.8 5.2 -3.7 5.1 -4.2 5.1 57.4 5.6 23.3 5.7 12.5 5.8 .3 5.7 -1.4 5.6 5.8 5.6 I -145.7 1 39.3 -30.5 -184.3 25.7 -44.8 -126.9 30.0 -41.0 -155.2 33.6 -38.4 -148.4 44.2 -28.7 -171.5 53.7 -20.1 -169.1 61.3 -13.4 -157.8 66.9 -8.7 -146.3 72.1 -4.4 -146.0 76.9 -.5 3.7 4.2 5.4 7.0 6.1 2.8 4.7 6.4 6.9 4.2 5.2 5.2 3.1 3.6 6.8 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.2 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.8 4.1 3.8 4.1 3.5 4.1 4.3 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 4.3 3.8 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 .6 4.7 4.1 -. 7 3.9 4.7 .3 4.0 3.7 3.5 4.5 1.0 4.4 4.2 -. 2 2.3 3.9 1.6 1.8 4.3 2.5 1.6 3.7 2.1 1.5 3.6 2.1 1.4 3.6 2.2 I IMillions IPercent* I 1 I INCOME AND SAVING Nominal personal income Real disposable income Personal saving rate IPercent change IPercent change 1 (Percent* 1 1 Corp. profits with IVA & CCAdj Profit share of GNP Percent change 1 IPercent* Federal govt. surplua/deficit State and local govt. surplus Exc. social insurance funds IBillions of $ 1 PRICES AND COSTS GNP implicit deflator GNP fixed-weight price index Cons. & fixed invest. prices CPI Exc. food and energy IPercent change I I ECI hourly compensation** >nfarm business sector Output per hour Compensation per hour Unit labor costs * Not at an annual rate. ** Private industry workers I I I June 28, 1991 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Net changes, billions of 1982 dollars) CONFIDENTIAL - FR CLASS II FOMC I I 1988 01 S 2 1989 1990 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 03 l4 1 1987 1988 S(fourth quarter to fourth quarter, not change) 1989 1990 Q1 02 4.5 13.7 187.1 138.6 73.9 20.2 163.0 103.0 46.1 -18.9 Real GNP Gross domestic purchases 49.5 15.5 35.6 30.5 26.3 32.6 27.2 24.4 36.4 11.8 16.5 18.7 17.5 28.3 3.5 -12.7 17.4 4.9 Final sales Private dom. final purchases 66.9 51.8 49.7 38.3 10.6 24.4 45.7 14.2 24.4 6.5 17.0 11.4 18.5 34.1 9.3 38.4 -7,2 117.9 -12.9 20.2 -10.3 78.5 172.9 128.7 69.2 39.1 Personal consumption expend. Durables Nondurables Services 42.6 17.3 3.8 22.3 -1.1 22.4 13.9 -2.1 -6.6 8.6 5.8 30.0 9.9 -5.4 7.4 4.4 9.1 2.7 1.4 -3.9 8.8 -5.9 5.9 -7.5 -21.8 9.1 14.2 6.0 3.0 6.7 11.3 104.6 36.4 21.9 46.4 3.7 14.5 56.4 -4.9 11.7 49.6 31.1 -15.0 31.0 32.9 Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Residential structures 12.7 16.0 17.6 14.9 2.0 2.0 -.1 .2 -8.0 -5.2 -2.8 -.2 10.5 8.4 2.2 -1.8 8.4 10.9 -2.6 -5.7 26.6 25.6 1.0 -4.5 24.3 21.8 27.7 -3.4 19.8 12.1 -10.8 22.9 24.6 20.8 -3.7 change in business inventories Nonfarm Farm Net exports Exports Imports Government purchases Federal Defense Nondefense State and local 19.8 5.7 17.1 -3.4 -3.4 -17.4 -26.6 9.1 34.0 34.7 .7 2.9 3.2 -14.1 -9.6 -4.5 5.1 5.6 .5 -18.9 6.3 -23.2 -3.8 2.8 -19.4 4.3 3.7 3.5 -. 9 15.7 11.8 3.9 -6.3 7.0 13.3 -18.6 -3.8 -14.8 2.8 21.0 18.2 28.7 23.9 3.1 20.8 4.8 1.5 I -10.8 -.4 10.0 -7.4 .4 -4.4 16.6 7.8 5.7 2.1 -3.7 -4.9 6.2 -6.2 -5.2 .4 -2.6 5.4 .7 6.5 -3.3 -2.9 -5.5 -. 6 5.1 -5.7 -. 9 .2 -1.1 -5.7 -6.4 .7 -2.2 17.1 19.2 -10.8 -.7 10.1 16.2 19.1 2.8 -4.8 -6.9 4.5 -11.4 2.1 6.0 -. 3 -4.7 4.4 6.3 -. -21.1 -23.5 2.4 11.7 19.8 -8.1 69.2 -34.4 66.3 -28.2 3.0 -6.3 12.5 16.5 4.1 -9.2 -8.0 1.2 24.1 80.5 56.4 12.3 12.9 2.1 15.3 10.8 -. 7 2 2.1 -13.8 4.9 -11.9 16.8 65.4 -3.8 11.0 17.7 -6.7 -18.5 -45.3 -43.8 -1.5 35.6 68.3 32.7 27.8 56.3 28.4 39.1 35.6 -3.4 8.6 30.1 17.2 10.2 7.0 12.9 5.3 10.2 -4.9 -5.4 -4.9 -. 5 2.3 -9.6 -5.6 -4.0 10.0 13.9 12.0 June 28, CONFIDENTIAL - FR 1991 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Net changes, billions of 1982 dollars) CLASS II FOMC I Projection Projection I.------------------------------------------------------- 1990 -------------------- 1991 -----------S 03 04 ---------------------------01 Q2 I 1992 Q3 Q4 .---------------------------Q1 Q2 03 1989 1990 1991 1992 (fourth quarter to fourth quarter, net change) Q4 IReal GNP Gross domestic purchases 14.9 16.8 -16.6 -54.3 -29.3 -45.2 2.4 16.1 48.3 41.3 42.3 45.7 34.3 37.9 28.9 32.3 27.5 27.9 26.4 29.6 73.9 46.1 20.2 -18.9 Final sales Private dom. purchases 19.7 19.1 14.5 -32.8 -30.8 -44,0 9.3 20.0 27.3 21.1 18.0 24.4 22.2 28,7 24.0 29.6 28.3 30.5 25.7 30.3 69.2 39.1 Personal consumption expend. Durables Nondurables Services 18.0 2.7 5.2 10.0 -23.2 -13.9 -15.2 5.9 -9.9 -12.7 -4.1 7.0 22.0 7.6 .7 13.8 14.8 5.3 2.7 6.9 16.4 5.1 2.7 8.6 20.1 6.7 4.0 9.3 18.7 3.7 4.9 10.1 18.5 3.6 4.7 10.2 18.3 3.3 4.8 10.2 31.1 -5.9 5.9 31.0 3.7 43.3 Business fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential structures Residential structures 10.9 9.5 1.5 -9.8' .1 6.1 -6.0 -9.7 -22.6 -20.0 -2.7 -11.5 -3.5 -1.7 -1.8 1.4 1.9 4.3 -2.4 4.5 4.3 6.1 -1.8 3.6 5.4 7.2 -1.8 3.2 7.3 8.5 -1.3 3.6 8.1 8.9 -.8 3.9 8;6 9.1 -.5 3.5 21.8 19.8 2.1 -13.8 Change in business inventories Nonfarm Farm -4.8 -6.9 2.1 -31.1 -33.2 2.1 1.4 .4 1.0 -6.8 -5.8 -1.0 21.0 22.0 -1.0 24.3 23.5 .8 12.1 11.7 .4 4.9 4.9 .0 -. 8 -. 8 .0 .7 .7 .0 Net exports Exports Inports -1.9 10.4 12.3 37.7 16.7 -21.0 15.9 .8 -15,0 -13.8 -1.6 12.1 7.0 10.1 3.1 -3.3 13.1 16.4 -3.6 10.3 13.8 -3.4 10.1 13.5 -. 4 9.7 10.0 Government purchases Federal Defense Nondefense State and local 2.5 .1 1.7 -1.6 2.4 9.6 3.9 7.5 -3.6 5.7 -2.7 -.4 1.8 -2.2 -2.3 3.1 3.6 -.9 4.5 -.5 -.8 -.7 -2.5 1.8 -. 1 -3.0 -4.1 -5.1 1.0 1.1 -2.9 -4.2 -5.2 1.0 1.3 -2.2 -4.0 -5.0 1.0 1.8 -1.8 -3.8 -4.8 1.0 2.0 final &#45;&#45;&#45; 63.8 57.9 117.1 127.7 65.4 23.9 -3,8 21.5 100.2 119.1 -7.5 - 5.3 -21.8 32.9 1.9 36.2 11.0 17.7 75.6 17.3 18.5 39.8 -6.7 -19.9 -11.3 -8.7 -16.5 -2.0 4.9 -11.9 16.8 -45.3 -43.8 -1.5 39.9 40.1 -. 2 -3.2 9.9 13.1 27.8 56.3 28.4 39.1 35.6 -3,4 5.8 22.3 16.5 -10.5 39.9 50.5 -1.4 -3.8 -4.8 1.0 2.4 2.3 -9.6 -5.6 30.1 17.2 10.2 7,0 12.9 -3.4 -1.6 -6.7 5.1 -1.8 -8.3 -15.8 -19.8 4.0 7.5 -4.0 12.0 16.9 16.5 .4 -12MONETARY AGGREGATES (based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted) Growth 19901 1991 Q1 1991 Q2pe 1991 Apr 1991 May 1991 04 90Jun pe Jun 91pe ------------ Percent change at annual rates--------------------1. 2. 3. 4.2 3.8 1.7 MI H12 H3 5.9 3.4 4.0 7% 4% 2 13.7 4.6 0.8 -1.1 2.8 0.5 Levels ----------- Percent change at annual rates------------ bil. $ May 91 Selected components 4. Ml-A 5. 6. Currency Demand deposits 4.6 5.7 4 -4.0 7.3 6 543.5 11.0 -0.6 15.3 -2.5 4 44 -0.5 -5.6 0.9 12.6 4 9 256.8 278.7 7. Other checkable deposits 6.1 134 4.0 25.0 12 308.3 8. M2 minus MH1 2.6 4 4.2 1.6 0 2544.0 0.0 -26.0 -20 67.6 2.0 4.2 15.9 -7.3 2.5 22.3 3.0 6.2 17.1 -5.0 0.1 23.2 -1 9 18 1 -10 13 365.1 1212.9 611.2 601.6 897.5 358.1 -14.9 -Z5 539.4 -15.4 -11 777.8 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares Commercial banks 3 Savings deposits plus MMDAs Small time deposits 14. i. Thrift institutions 3 Savings deposits plus MMOAs ,. Small time deposits 17. M3 minus M2 4 18. 19. 20. 21. Large time deposits At commercial banks, net5 At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual fund shares 22. Term RPs, NSA 23. Term Eurodollars, NSA 3.0 11.0 9.9 7.5 12.4 -5.5 -2.2 -7.3 -42.3 18.2 8.2 7.5 -13k 6% 7½ 8.9 164 -1½ -6.3 -0.7 -9.7 -1¼ 18k -13h -9% -9.4 -6.4 6.7 -9.5 -3.5 -23.9 1.2 11.9 -32.1 -8 0 -35% -11.3 -5.7 -31.2 -46.4 20.2 -12.0 -12.1 49.9 -32.8 7.9 24 -24% 30.4 -15.9 -43.8 4.9 -14.6 -38.5 -26 -9.2 . -9.5 502.7 398.2 104.5 0.6 -16 -24 2 146.2 81.1 66.4 ----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars---MEMORANDA: 6 24. Managed liabilities at commercial banks (25+26) 25. Large time deposits, gross 26. Nondeposit funds 27. Net due to related foreign institutions 7 Other 28. 29. U.S. government deposits at commercial bankss -1.6 6.4 -8.0 -3% -2.6 2.4. -4½ -1.4 0.0 -1.4 2.2 0.2 -1.5 -6.5 -4 -h 0.6 -1.9 0.3 3.1 -3½ -12.1 -0.1 4 710.1 452.1 258.0 -3.4 1.2 -4.6 -6.6 -8 1 26.0 232.0 8 15.1 1. Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. 2. Nontransactions M2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. 3. Commercial bank savings deposits excluding MMDAs grew during May and June at rates of 14.9 percent and 18 percent, respectively. At thrift institutions, savings deposits excluding MMOAs grew during May and June at rates of 18.7 percent and 12 percent, respectively. 4. The non-M2 component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. 5. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift institutions. s. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money (including borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. 8. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. pe - preliminary estimate -13- COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT (Percentage changes at annual rates, based on seasonally adjusted data) 1989:Dec. to 1990:Dec. 1990 Q4 Ql ----------------------1. 2. Total loans and securities at banks Securities Mar. 1991 Apr. Commercial Bank Credit Levels bil.$ May May -------------------- 5.3 2.3 4.0 6.7 .0 -. 7 2750.0 8.6 .6 12.5 25.7 10.9 7.3 658.9 3. U.S. government securities 13.9 3.7 15.0 34.8 19.3 13.8 484.9 4. Other securities -3.1 -7.2 5.7 2.0 -11.5 -10.3 174.0 4.3 2.9 1.5 1.0 -3.3 -3.2 2091.1 5. Total loans 6. Business loans 1.9 3.0 -. 4 3.8 -7.9 -7.5 633.2 7. Real estate loans 9.5 6.1 3.4 3.5 4.5 4.9 854.7 8. Consumer loans 1.2 .6 -2.6 -5.1 -3.5 -1.3 9. Security loans 4.4 -6.8 -17.7 -117.2 30.9 .0 39.8 -2.4 -4.3 11.6 19.0 -28.9 -28.4 189.9 10. Other loans --------- . 373.5 Short- and Intermediate-Term Business Credit ---------- Business loans net of bankers acceptances 1.9 12. Loans at foreign branches2 13. Sum of lines 11 & 12 14. Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms 15. Sum of lines 13 & 14 16. Bankers acceptances: related ' 17. 37.0 .4 -3.1 4.0 -9.2 4.3 .2 -3.2 -5.0 4.2 2.8 -. 7 -9.6 17.8 -24.3 -69.5 3.6 3.4 -1.6 -.6 12.0 4.5 2.0 -.1 .0 2.5 12.2 3.5 -3.2 2.2 -7.7 -46.5 -9.3 -8.0 -58.1 -9.9 627.1 23.6 650.6 12.9 -34.4 145.9 -5.2 -14.4 796.6 -58.3 -16.3 29.0 -7.3 -14.4 825.6 n.a. 294.4 n.a. 1132.95 U.S. trade Line 15 plus bankers acceptances: U.S. trade related 18. Finance company loans to business 3 19. Total short- and intermediateterm business credit (sum of lines 17 & 18) -. 19.3 3.0 13.1 5.8 5.6 .4 -5.2 5 Average of Wednesdays. . Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. -. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. . Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic snipment and storage of goods. -. Aril data. 'iminary. ot available -141 SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (percent) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1989 March highs 1990 Dec lows Aug highs 1991 FOMC May 14 Jun 27 Change from: -~-------"--~--------------------Aug 90 FOMC highs May 14 Short-term rates Federal funds 2 9.85 8.45 8.21 5.77 5.78 -2.43 0.01 9.09 7.53 7.29 7.11 7.59 7.45 5.49 5.62 5.75 5.55 5.73 5.94 -2.04 9.11 9.05 -1.51 0.06 0.11 0.19 Commercial paper 1-month 3-month 10.05 10.15 8.51 8.22 8.10 8.05 5.92 5.93 6.08 6.13 -2.02 -1.92 0.16 0.20 Large negotiable CDs 3 1-month 3-month 6-month 10.07 10.32 10.08 8.52 8.22 8.01 8.14 8.18 8.25 5.90 5.93 6.07 5.99 6.08 6.35 -2.15 -2.10 -1.90 0.09 0.15 0.28 Eurodollar deposits 4 1-month 3-month 10.19 10.50 8.38 8.25 8.13 8.19 5.81 5.94 5.94 6.13 -2.19 -2.06 0.13 0.19 Bank prime rate 11.50 10.50 10.00 8.50 8.50 -1.50 0.00 U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 9.88 7.69 10-year 9.53 7.77 30-year 9.31 7.83 8.50 9.05 9.17 7.13 8.14 8.36 7.43 8.32 8.49 -1.07 -0.73 -0.68 0.30 0.18 0.13 Municipal revenue (Bond Buyer) Treasury bills 3-month 6-month 1-year 3 7.51 -1.78 Intermediate- and long-term rates 7.95 7.28 7.80 7.09 7.30 -0.50 0.21 Corporate--A utility recently offered 10.47 9.29 10.50 9.53 9.58 -0.92 0.05 Bome mortgage rates 6 S&L fixed-rate S&L ARM, 1-yr. 11.22 9.31 9.69 8.34 10.29 8.39 9.47 7.23 9.65 7.24 -0.64 -1.15 0.18 0.01 1989 Record highs Date Lows Jan 3 1991 FOMC May 14 Jun 27 Percent change from: Record highs 1989 lows FOMC May 14 -3.31 -3.88 -9.47 -6.86 -4.40 36.85 33.08 17.75 25.80 31.22 1.67 0.62 -0.23 -2.57 0.12 Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial 3035.33 NYSE Composite 213.21 AMEX Composite 397.03 NASDAQ (OTC) 511.31 Wilshire 3731.48 6/3/91 2144.64 2886.85 2934.93 4/17/91 154.00 203.67 204.94 10/10/89 305.24 360.25 359.43 4/17/91 378.56 488.79 476.24 4/17/91 2718.59 3562.98 3567.32 One-day quotes except as noted. Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown. Last observation is average for the maintenance period ending June 26, 1991. 3/ Secondary market. 4/ Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits at 11 a.m. London time. 5/ Based on one-day Thursday quotes and futures market index changes. 6/ Quotes for week ending Friday closest to date shown. -15- THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of Imports and Exports According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices of U.S. imports rose 0.2 percent in May, the first increase in seven months. The increase was led by a 2.9 percent rise in the index for prices of petroleum imports. The index for prices of nonpetroleum imports declined for the second consecutive month, after a string of eight monthly increases. Further declines in the prices of imported capital and consumer goods caused the drop in this index. The index for prices of U.S. exports decreased 0.3 percent in May. The decrease was caused by a 1.1 percent fall in prices of exported industrial supplies and materials, which continued its sevenmonth downward trend. categories In contrast, the other four major export (foods, capital goods, motor vehicles, and consumer goods) each posted a slight increase in May. Erratum Greenbook pages 1-31 and IV-16 incorrectly state that the Desk did not intervene during the intermeeting period. did intervene on one occasion. In fact, the Desk Late on May 17, the day Sweden announced it would peg the krona to the ECU, the Desk sold $50 million against marks. -16- IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE MEASURES (percent change from previous period, annual rate) Year 1991-01 1990-Q1 Quarters 1990 1991 03 04 Q1 (Quarterly Average, AR) Months 1991 Apr May (Monthly Rates) ---------------------BLS Prices --------------------Imports. Total Foods, Feeds, Bev. Industrial Supplies Ind Supp Ex Oil* Capital Goods Automotive Products Consumer Goods 3.3 3.7 2.8 0.4 4.8 3.6 2.7 10.2 7.4 31.7 -1.5 3.8 3.3 -0.3 24.9 5.2 77.1 2.7 8.2 10.3 4.5 -12.3 7.6 -41.0 -0.3 4.8 6.5 2.3 -0.7 0.8 -0.5 -0.6 -1.4 -0.7 -0.7 0.2 0.1 0.9 -0.1 -0.6 0.3 -0.2 7.0 3.0 134.1 1.8 307.2 6.3 -73.9 3.6 0.0 -0.7 2.9 -0.2 2.0 -3.9 1.8 3.1 2.7 3.6 1.7 -13.1 5.2 3.3 1.9 1.6 4.4 -16.5 15.9 2.1 3.5 3.7 0.6 8.5 -9.8 5.6 3.5 6.0 0.0 0.9 -1.1 0.3 -0.1 1.8 -0.3 0.1 -1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -3.3 2.7 -11.9 3.9 -14.2 7.9 6.9 -0.7 1.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 Memo: Oil Non-oil Exports. Total Foods, Feeds, Bev. Industrial Supplies Capital Goods Automotive Products Consumer Goods Memo: Agricultural Nonagricultural ------------ Prices in the GNP Accounts------------Fixed-Weight Imports, Total Oil Non-oil -18.3 -75.0 4.0 2.8 3.2 2.7 15.8 135.7 3.9 34.4 346.2 5.3 2.1 -1.4 2.8 0.8 -10.1 3.1 5.7 -11.8 9.5 0.4 7.8 -1.0 Deflators Imports, Total Oil Non-oil 0.5 3.2 -0.8 11.3 135.2 2.1 27.1 345.0 0.6 -20.8 -75.0 -4.7 Exports, Total Ag Nonag -0.3 -1.4 -0.1 -3.9 -10.1 -3.1 3.6 -11.8 5.6 -5.2 7.8 -6.6 Exports, Total Ag Nonag */ Months not for publication. - 

Federal Reserve (1991, July 2). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19910703_part2

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19910703_part2,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1991},
  month = {Jul},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19910703_part2},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}