Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL CLASS III - (FR) FOMC October 28, 1988 SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY' Comparison of BEA and FRB estimates of third-quarter GNP Addendum: Employment cost index chart . . . . . . . . . . Table Real Gross National Product and related items . . . . . . Chart Employment Cost Indexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Monetary aggregates and bank credit . . . . . . . . . . . Tables Monetary aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial bank credit and short- and . . . . . . . . .. intermediate- term business credit . . . . . . . . . . Selected financial market quotations THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of imports and exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S. merchandise trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Erratum: Table on U.S. oil imports . . . . . . . . . . . Tables Import and export price measures . . . U.S. merchandise trade . . . . . . . . Imports of petroleum and products . . . . . . 3 SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Comparison of BEA and FRB Estimates of Third-Quarter GNP In its advance report on the third quarter, BEA estimated that real GNP grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate; excluding the effects of the drought, real GNP was up at a 2.8 percent annual pace. These estimates, and those of the inflation measures, were virtually identical to the staff's Greenbook projections. All things considered, the BEA data do not alter the staff's outlook for the economy. Personal consumption expenditures were $2.6 billion weaker than in the Greenbook, owing mainly to weaker sales of used cars. Our lower estimate of business fixed investment primarily reflected our anticipation of a negative figure for the oil and gas well drilling component of nonresidential structures as well as different assumptions about net exports of capital goods. In addition, BEA apparently did not fully incorporate the September shipments data into the advance estimate, and at this point, we anticipate a downward adjustment to equipment spending in next month's GNP revision; before that revision, however, more complete data on September shipments will be received. The staff's lower estimate of the increase in real residential construction expenditures was due entirely to a 3.6 percentage point higher estimate of the rate of increase in the residential structures deflator; this price index often is revised substantially after the advance report, and it looks low relative to other indicators of residential construction costs. REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS (Percent change from previous period at compound annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data) 1986-Q4 to 1987-Q4 1988-Q2 Final 1988-Q3 Oct. GB Advance 1. Gross national product 1a. Excluding drought effects 5.0 5.0 3.0 3.9 2.2 2.8 2.2 2.9 2. Final sales 2a. Excluding CCC purchases 3.0 3.4 6.3 6.0 2.4 2.1 2.9 2.6 3. Consumer spending 3a. Excluding motor vehicles 1.8 2.5 3.0 2.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.5 4. Business fixed investment 4a. Producers' durable equipment 4b. Structures 8.8 9.6 6.7 15.0 19.2 3.3 4.6 5.8 1.6 1.3 4.5 -7.3 5. Residential structures -3.5 .2 1.3 -1.8 6. Federal purchases 6a. Defense 2.1 6.0 4.7 -1.5 7. State and local purchases 2.5 3.2 2.5 1.7 8. Exports of goods and services 18.4 9.1 8.4 13.0 9. Imports of goods and services 10.4 -3.7 8.7 8.2 34.4 ** 36.9 ** -2.5 ** 35.3 30.1 5.3 33.8 34.0 28.6 32.0 -3.4 -6.5 -10.1 -3.6 -8.5 ADDENDA: 10. Inventory change * 10a. Nonfarm * 10b. Farm * -92.6 -94.9 -88.9 11. Net exports' 12. Nominal GNP 8.3 8.7 6.4 6.6 13. GNP Implicit price deflator 3.1 5.5 4.4 4.4 14. GNP fixed-weight price index 4.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 15. Real disposable personal income 3.0 .0 4.7 1.0 16. Saving rate (percent) 3.2 <= 3.7 4.0 3.7 *Level, billions of oonstant dollars. "Annual average. -128.9 * -. 3 -3- Nonfarm inventory investment was a bit stronger than estimated in the Greenbook. Although we were looking for a smaller drawdown in stocks at automotive dealers, nonfarm inventor, investment excluding autos was $7.1 billion stronger than expected. investment as unintended. We do not view this extra inventory About half of the additional stockbuilding occurred at the manufacturing level, where inventory-to-sales ratios currently are low, while-the remainder was concentrated in the "other" nonfarm category. Increases in stocks at the nonauto retail level, where inventories have been on the high side relative to sales, were a bit smaller than we predicted. Nonagricultural merchandise exports came in $6.2 billion weaker than in the October Greenbook and accounted for virtually all of the difference in net exports. At this point in the quarter, the difference mainly reflects alternative assumptions about the September trade deficit. BEA assumes that the deficit will be essentially flat, while the staff is anticipating some improvement. Addendum: Employment Cost Index chart Attached is a chart on the employment cost index on which the threemonth changes as seasonally adjusted by the FRB staff are shown along with the twelve-month changes. 1. This category includes stocks held by construction companies, nonmerchant wholesalers, and oil and gas pipelines. -4- Employment Cost Indexes Private Industry Workers WAGES AND SALARIES * Percent change COMPENSATION* 10 8 8 6 6 I U Percent change 10 t 4 4 2 S2 COMPENSATION, COMPENSATION, GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES * , 10 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES * -,8 -2 1982 1984 1986 1, 10 - - 1988 * Solid line represents the 12-month percent change at an annual rate. Dashed line Is the 3-month percent change, seasonally adjusted by Board staff, at an annual rate. 8 2 1982 1984 1986 1988 -5- THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY Monetary Aggregates and Bank Credit Growth in the narrower monetary aggregates has remained sluggish in October. M1 is estimated to have edged up at a 1 percent annual rate, owing solely to continued growth of currency. Demand deposits were flat and OCDs ran off, reflecting their increasing opportunity costs. M2 is estimated to have expanded at a 2 percent annual rate, a little above its September pace, reflecting the slight pickup in M1 and an acceleration in money market mutual funds and small time deposit growth at commercial banks. Small time deposit growth at thrifts, while in the double digits, continued to lag noticeably behind that at banks. Since the fourth quarter of 1987, M2 has grown at a 5-1/4 percent annual rate, leaving this aggregate in the lower portion of its annual growth range. M3 growth is estimated to have picked up to a 5 percent annual rate in October, bringing its growth since the fourth quarter to 6-1/4 percent. The October strengthening in M3 primarily reflected a surge in its non-M2 component. Institution-only money market funds expanded at a double-digit pace following several months of declines, as their returns became more favorable relative to those on short-term market instruments, and term RPs reversed their September decline. Large time deposit issuance by both banks and thrift institutions, although slowing somewhat in October, remained strong. Bank credit growth is estimated to have rebounded to about a 7 percent annual rate in October, primarily reflecting a surge in business lending, although security acquisitions also strengthened somewhat. Consumer loan growth at banks, however, appears to have slowed, though much of the sluggishness apparently reflects extensive securitization activity. MONETARY AGGREGATES adjusted data unless otherwise noted) (based on seasonally 19871 -----------1. 2. 3. Mi M2 M3 1988 Q2 1988 Q3 1988 Aug 1988 Sep Growth 1988 Q4 87Oct pe Oct 88pe Percent change at annual rates--------------------6.3 7.7 7.6 5.2 3.7 5.7 0.3 2.3 3.8 ------------ Percent change at annual -0.2 1.2 1.6 Levels rates------------ bil. $ Sep 88 Selected components 2.8 Mi-A 4. 7. Other checkable deposits 8. M2 minus M12 9. 10. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 4 Large time deposits s At commercial banks, net At thrift institutions Institution-only money market mutual fund shares, NSA Term RPs, NSA Term Eurodollars, NSA MEMORANDA: 6 24. Managed liabilities at commercial banks (25+26) 25. Large time deposits, gross 26. 3.3 Small time deposits 17. M3 minus M2 22. 23. 13.6 Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA General purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual fund shares, NSA Commercial banks 3 Savings deposits, SA, plus MMDAs, NSA 3 Small time deposits Thrift institutions 33 Savings deposits, SA, plus MMDAs, NSA 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Nondeposit funds Net due to related foreign institutions, NSA 7 Other 28. 29. U.S. government deposits at commercial a banks 3.3 8.7 -1.0 Currency Demand deposits 5. 6. 3.9 10.6 9.0 0.7 -0.7 2 504.1 5.2 -2.5 7.5 -7.0 5 0 208.5 288.3 -0.9 0.9 3.1 1.7 8.2 3.1 3.0 -2.5 36.9 3.3 6.8 3.2 11.8 9.1 2.3 14.0 -3.1 5.0 1.2 10.1 2.8 0.3 4.6 6.3 3.8 -3.1 12.6 2.8 -1.8 6.1 -2 278.3 2 2252.4 -37.3 -20 77.9 0.5 3.9 -7.9 19.7 2.2 -10.7 11.3 2 8 -5 24 1 -11 10 230.9 964.7 543.9 420.9 976.9 399.9 577.0 11.2 6.9 13.5 9.3 2.9 16 817.3 8.5 11.2 3.4 7.6 6.7 9.3 15.7 21.5 4.3 13.2 20.4 -0.7 20.5 18.7 24.3 14 13 17 523.6 352.4 171.2 3.0 32.8 13.8 -30.6 25.1 20.3 -23.3 8.8 41.2 -11.3 -19.5 78.1 -4.3 -16.9 -15.1 11 19 -24 83.7 119.3 101.8 ----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars--- 6.2 3.5 2.7 7.8 1.5 6.3 2.3 6.3 -4.0 10.8 6.7 4.1 2.9 -0.2 3.9 2.4 0.1 -4.1 7.9 -3.8 0.3 -1.0 0.8 602.3 419.5 182.8 -7.7 6.1 -13.8 27. -4.4 -9.6 -4.2 8.7 -8 1 7 9.1 173.7 24.5 Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Nontransactions M2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. Commercial bank savings deposits excluding MMDAs grew during September and October at rates of -1.9 institutions, savings deposits excluding MMDAs grew percent and -6 percent, respectively. At thrift during September and October at rates of -3 percent and -8 percent, respectively. The non-M2 component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift institutions. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money (including borrowing from the Federal Reserve and unaffiliated foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). Data are partially estimated. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks. - preliminary estimate COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT (Percentage changes at annual rates, based on seasonally adjusted data) 1986:Q4 to 1988 P 1987:Q4 -- 1. 2. Total loans and securities at banks Securities 3. U.S. government securities 4. Other securities 5. Total loans Q2 Q3 August Sept. Oct. Levels bil.$ p Oct. Commercial Bank Credit ----------------------- --------------------7.9 11.5 4.3 7.2 -. 6 7.2 5.0 8.3 -.2 4.6 -.4 7.9 550.3 9.6 12.1 2.2 8.6 6.5 8.5 354.9 -1.9 1.6 -4.5 -2.4 -12.8 6.8 195.4 8.9 12.5 5.6 7.9 -. 6 7.0 1837.7 602.3 2388.0 6. Business loans 7.0 15.8 3.2 2.2 -4.4 10.2 7. Security loans .8 -18.4 -30.5 46.6 -113.7 49.6 37.8 8. Real estate loans 18.8 13.3 12.6 13.9 11.3 12.5 651.4 9. Consumer loans 5.1 8.8 5.5 5.9 7.3 2.8 349.9 -3.1 13.8 -1.6 2.4 -17.8 -20.4 196.3 10. Other loans -------11. Business loans net of bankers acceptances Loans at foreign branches 2 13. Sum of lines 11 & 12 14. Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms 15. Sum of lines 13 & 14 16. Bankers acceptances: related 3,4 17. Short- and Intermediate-Term Business Credit --------- 7.2 16.1 3.1 1.4 -4.0 10.1 598.6 -4.1 4.1 26.3 63.2 66.0 17.1 21.4 6.8 15.8 3.8 3.3 -1.8 10.3 620.0 -1.6 12.2 -4.8 9.4 -1.3 35.9 93.0 5.7 15.3 2.7 3.9 -1.5 13.6 713.0 -9.5 -7.3 -11.0 -3.7 n.a. 14.1 2.2 3.3 -1.6 n. a. 737.25 n. a. 223.8 6 U.S. trade Line 15 plus bankers acceptances: U.S. trade related 13.3 6.0 18. Finance company loans to business 3 19.3 12.1 n.a. 4.8 n.a. 19. Total short- and intermediateterm business credit (sum of lines 17 & 18) 13.7 n.a. 3.6 n.a. 8.8 n.a. 32.25 962.0 6 *Data in this table have been benchmarked to March 1988 commerci al bank call reports. The benchmark affects data back to January 1987. 1. Average of Wednesdays. 2. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks. 3. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month. 4. Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods. 5. September data. 6. August data n.a.--not available -- reliminary SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS 1/ (percent) 1987 Change from: 1988 Jan-Feb 2/ Feb F~C 7.59 6.38 8.15 8.29 0.14 5.30 5.31 5.35 6.93 5.59 7.20 0.18 5.77 6.10 7.38 7.50 7.5, 7.5 7.74 7.4 7.51 0.10 0.01 5.81 5.73 7.94 8.65 6.41 6.45 8.01 8.08 8.15 8.29 0.14 0.21 5.85 5.80 5.78 7.92 8.90 9.12 6.44 6.49 6.55 8.06 8.17 8.45 8.17 8.43 8.52 0.11 0.26 0.07 Eurodollar deposits 5/ 1-onth 3-cnth 6.oo00 6.00 7.:79 8.69 6.60 6.69 8.16 8.27 8.25 8.56 0.09 0.29 Bank prime rate 7.50 9.25 8.50 10.00 10.00 0.00 9.52 lows Oct 16 5.95 lows Sept 20 Oct 27 F Sept 20 Short-term rates Federal funds 3/ Treasury bills 4/ 3-wnth 1-year Ccmercial paper 1-month 3-month Lare pn tiable CD's 4/ 3-umth 6-nnth Intermediate- and long-term rates U.S. Treasury (oonstant mturity) 7.01 7.29 10.23 10.24 7.28 8.11 8.32 8.56 8.97 9.06 8.35 8.72 8.9 -0.21 -0.25 -0.22 Mnicipal revenue 6/ (Bond Buyer index) 6.92 9.59 7.76 7.88 7.70 -0.18 Cororate--A utility Recently offered 8.78 11.50 9.63 10.30 10.06 -0.24 9.10 7.52 11.58 9.84 10.40 10.28 -0.12 0.01 6.34 3-year 10-year 30-year Home mortgage rates 7/ Fixed-year A]M, 1-year 8.45 1986 7.59 Record 8.13 1988 1987 Year end highs 8.12 Lows FOC Sept 20 Oct 27 Percent charng from: FCNC Sept 20 Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial NYSE Composite AM Cposite NASDAQ (OTC) 18.95 18.58 3.27 34.83 2722.42 187.99 .01 455.26 1738.74 2087.48 2140.83 125.91 152.44 156.17 231. .63 300.64 291. .10 381.77 1/ One-day quotes except as noted. 2/ Last business day prior to stock market decline on Mnday Oct. 19, 1987. 3/ Average for two-week reserve maintenance period closest to date shown except lows shown which are one-week averages ending 2.56 2.45 0.67 -0.61 4/ Secondary market. 5/ Average for statement week closest to date shown. 6/ One-day cqotes for Thursday. Feb. 25 and Feb. 10, respectively. Last observation is average 7/ Qjotes for week ending Friday closest to date shown to date for maintenance period ending November 2, 1988. e-estimate THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Prices of Imports and Exports Prices of non-oil imports (n.s.a.) declined 2.2 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The decline was the first quarterly decrease recorded since the depreciation of the dollar began in early 1985, and appears to be associated in part with the appreciation of the dollar that occurred between May and August. The declines were widespread among major trade categories, including imported foods (particularly coffee), goods capital (a wide range of machinery, particularly those categories that had recorded the sharpest increases over the past three years), and consumer goods (everything from footwear and household goods to photographic and optical goods). However, for industrial supplies, declines in prices of imported textile supplies, lumber, nonferrous metals, and agricultural products were offset by increases in the price of imported paper, chemicals, and steel. Declines in the price of passenger cars were more than offset by increases in the price of automotive parts. A notable increase was recorded in the price of imported semiconductors in the third quarter (part of the capital goods category). There was also a sharp decline in the price of imported oil in the third quarter; over the past four quarters the price of oil declined 21 percent. prices. The rise in prices of exports primarily reflected higher grain -10IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE MEASURES (percentage change from previous period, annual rates) 1987 Q4 Q3 Q1 4.7 11.0 -4.3 3.3 -32.9 -36.7 23.0 -27.0 11.7 11.9 11.1 16.3 10.0 5.8 14.6 6.5 10.1 0 24.8 7.6 -2.2 0 -6.6 7.3 3.5 12.3 5.7 0.0 4.5 6.9 16.8 7.6 11.3 0.0 8.0 10.7 9.6 4.5 7.8 7.0 6.9 12.2 -7.0 0.3 -4.7 5.8 6.0 6.3 5.7 2.4 8.4 6.2 11.7 -16.1 32.8 3.3 63.7 3.9 11.8 0.8 6.3 10.3 1.2 5.8 8.9 4.8 7.6 15.2 3.6 3.3 1.2 2.4 5.7 8.8 3.0 -1.2 1.5 1.6 2.3 -4.9 1.7 5.8 -0.8 8.0 -0.8 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.4 -0.6 3.5 1.3 4.1 Oil 3.5 4.5 11.0 -1.0 Non-oil Food, Feed, Bev. Industrial Supplies Capital Goods Computers & Semiconductors Other Capital Goods Autos and Parts Consumer Goods 4.2 -1.9 Exports, Total Nonagricultural Industrial Supplies Capital Goods Computers & Semiconductors Other Capital Goods Autos and Parts Consumer Goods - Fixed-Weighted Exports, Total Imports, Total Imports, Non-oil Deflators Exports, Total Imports, Total Imports, Non-oil 4.2 5.9 Imports, Total Agricultural 1988Q3 1987Q3 Q3 BLS Prices 1 -------------3.3 1988 Q2 - - 3.7 7.4 6.0 1.5 1.9 4.2 - Prices 3.3 4.7 8.7 4.5 2.0 2.0 -3.1 8.7 68.5 in the GNP Accounts - 8.7 3.3 12.8 -0.7 2.6 -3.2 -0.0 1.6 8.1 8.1 6.2 7.5 -21.4 12.1 1.6 4.8 9.1 1.4 4.1 1. Not seasonally adjusted, surveyed last month of each quarter. 39.5 - - - -11- Other measures of prices of U.S. exports and imports--the implicit deflators and fixed-weight price indexes reported in the GNP accounts-showed an upward movement in prices of exports in the th rd quarter that was similar to that shown in the BLS series, but there were different movements in non-oil import prices table). substantially (see the bottom half of the The GNP fixed-weight measure for non-oil imports shows an increase of 4.8 percent while the BLS measure reports a decline of 2.2 percent. Much of the difference will be eliminated when BLS data are incorporated in the GNP accounts. However, the GNP data also differ from BLS data for definitional reasons: the two measures incorporate different treatment of prices of agricultural products, industrial supplies, aircraft exports, and especially computers. After revisions take into account the new BLS data, the GNP price measures are likely to show a small decline in overall prices of non-oil imports (perhaps a decline of about 1-1/2 percent at an annual rate); this would be a slightly smaller decline than in the BLS data. U.S. Merchandise Trade Data on prices of exports and imports released after the Greenbook permit a breakdown of trade value into prices and quantities. For the combined July-August period, the trade deficit was not substantially different from that recorded for the second quarter in both nominal and constant 1982 dollars. These data, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate and on a balance-of-payments basis, are shown in the table on the next page. In constant dollars, nonagricultural exports in the July-August period were only marginally higher than in the second quarter. The decline in the quantity of agricultural exports importantly reflected a drop in shipments -12- of grain to the Soviet Union from strong second-quarter levels, as well as a decline in exports of soybeans. As discussed in the Greenbook, the increased volume of oil imports in the July-August period mostly reflected increased imports of gasoline in August. Using the deflator for non-oil imports for 1988-Q3 published in the GNP accounts (shown in the table), the U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE (Billions of dollars, annual rates, BOP basis, seasonally adjusted) Total Exports Ag. Nonag. Total Imports Oil Non-oil Balance - - - - - - - - - Current Dollars - - - - - - - - - - 1985 1986 1987 216 224 250 30 27 30 186 197 220 338 369 410 50 34 43 288 335 367 -122 -144 -160 1987-1 -2 -3 -4 227 239 260 272 26 28 33 31 201 211 226 242 387 398 418 437 35 40 51 45 352 357 367 392 -159 -158 -159 -165 1988-1 2* J/A* 301 318 223 36 39 40 265 280 283 442 439 441 40 41 40 402 398 401 -141 -121 -118 - - - - - - - Constant 1982 Dollars - - - - - - - - - 1987-1 -2 -3 -4 249 263 286 299 31 34 40 35 218 230 246 264 417 421 446 460 70 72 88 81 347 349 358 379 -168 -158 -160 -161 1988-1 2* J/A* 329 341 339 39 40 36 290 301 303 463 459 460 82 85 88 381 373 372 -134 -118 -121 */ FR staff estimates; includes unpublished revisions to data. -13- quantity of non-oil imports in July-August was not substantially different from imports in the second quarter; if revised (lower) prices were used, the quantity of non-oil imports would show an increase of about 1 percent from the second-quarter level. Erratum: U.S. Oil Imports In the Greenbook, the footnote was missing from the table below. IMPORTS OF PETROLEUM AND PRODUCTS (BOP basis, seasonally adjusted, value at annual rates) Year Value (Bil. $) Price ($/BBL) Volume (mbd.) */ 42.88 17.33 6.78 1987 Q3 51.04 18.26 7.66 Q4 45.15 17.46 7.08 Q1 39.82 15.23 7.14 1988 Q2* Jul-Aug 41.02 15.16 7.39 40.39 14.49 7.63 FR staff estimates; includes unpublished revisions to data. Aug 41.99 14.22 8.07 

Federal Reserve (1988, October 31). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19881101_part3

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19881101_part3,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1988},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19881101_part3},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}