Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC March 27, 1981 SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC FINANCIAL SITUATION TABLES: Monetary Aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial Bank Credit ............... . . . . . . . . Selected Financial Market Quotations -1- UPDATED MONETARY AGGREGATES (Based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted)1 1980 1981 ---Money stock measures 1. M-1A 2 (Adjusted) 2. 3. M-1B 4. (Adjusted) 2 5. M-2 6. M-3 Selected components 7. Currency e Q1 Q4 Q3 11.5 8.1 14.6 10.8 Jan. Feb. Mar.e Mar. '80 to Mar. '81e Percentage change at annual rates ----19.2 (-.6) 5.1 (.4) 16.0 9.1 7.0 13.0 11.6 10.6 -37.4 (2.5) 12.2 (2.9) 5.7 12.9 11.3 9.2 5.2 2.1 -21.9 (-3.1) 3.5 (-2.0) 7.6 8.7 7.2 -3.6 (8.7) 12.4 (8.7) 16.5 9.2 -2.1 6.1 8.3 7.7 10.3 10.8 8. Demand deposits 11.5 7.7 -29.6 -54.5 -34.7 -8.7 -6.4 9. Other checkable deposits, NSA 75.5 54.9 360.8 717.3 218.9 126.6 207.6 10. M-2 minus M-1B (11+12+13+16) 3 Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA 11. 12. Money market mutual fund shares, NSA 13. Commercial banks 14. savings deposits 15. small time deposits 16. Thrift institutions 17. savings deposits 18. small time deposits 16.4 135.6 75.7 11.3 27.5 0.7 9.5 28.1 1.1 8.5 15.4 -15.5 10.8 1.7 17.1 9.5 -3.1 15.7 7.6 0.0 4.4 -35.5 30.8 1.6 -37.1 19.8 3.5 18.7 77.6 1.0 -54.9 36.3 -3.5 -46.2 15.4 9.0 -25.8 174.0 0.7 -29.1 17.8 -3.2 -33.6 9.6 17.8 33.9 168.8 4.2 -16.6 16.4 5.7 -23.5 17.5 11.2 24.7 73.1 8.9 -6.6 19.9 6.3 -9.6 14.2 19. 20 21. Large time deposits at commercial banks, net4 at thrift institutions -11.6 -16.3 14.6 25.3 20.7 47.7 35.5 35.4 37.8 52.3 55.7 36.0 21.8 21.3 24.2 -24.6 -29.2 -2.6 12.5 8.9 33.1 22. Term RPs, NSA 47.8 41.5 12.2 75.6 -27.8 -88.7 21.5 84.0 -- Average monthly change in billions of dollars-MEMORANDA: 23. Managed liabilities at commercial banks (24+25) 24. Large time deposits, gross Nondeposit funds 25. Net due to related foreign 26. institutions, NSA 5 Other 27. 28. U.S. government deposits at 6 commercial banks -0.2 0.4 -0.6 n.a. 6.2 n.a. 5.1 n.a. 10.7 n.a. 7.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. -1.9 1.3 -0.7 n.a. -3.0 n.a. 1.3 -1.7 0.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. -2.6 n.a. 3.0 n.a. 1.6 n.a. 0.1 n.a. -4.7 n.a. -12.5 n.a. 0.4 -0.2 2.6 1. Quarterly growth rates are computed on a quarterly average basis. 2. Figures in parentheses have been adjusted to remove the distorting effects since the beginning of 1981 of shifts of funds out of demand deposits and other accounts into NOW accounts. Based on a variety of evidence, it is estimated that 80 percent of inflows into other checkable deposits--in excess of "trend"-was from demand deposits in January, and 75 percent in February and March. 3. Overnight and continuing contract RPs issued to the nonbank public by commercial banks, net of amounts held by money market mutual funds, plus overnight Eurodollar deposits issued by Caribbean branches of U.S. member banks to U.S. nonbank customers. 4. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift institutions. 5. Consists of borrowings from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase and other liabilities for borrowed money (including borrowings from the Federal Reserve), loans sold to affiliates, loan RPs, and other minor items. 6. Consists of Treasury demand deposits at commercial banks and Treasury note balances. e--estimated. n.a.--Uot available. -2COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDITE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT (Percentage changes at annual rates, based on seasonally adjusted data)1 Feb. '80 1981 1980 to Q2 Q3 ---------1. 2. Total loans and investments at banks2 Investments Q4 Dec. Jan. Feb. Feb. '81 Commercial Bank Credit ------------- -4.1 12.9 14.6 12.8 15.7 8.3 11.8 20.7 11.9 7.4 19.2 9.8 14.5 8.4 3. Treasury securities 13.1 39.1 11.1 2.2 31.4 18.0 21.2 4. Other securities 11.4 11.5 12.3 10.2 13.5 5.0 11.2 -9.4 10.2 15.7 14.9 14.3 7.6 6.3 -9.3 15.3 21.1 15.3 17.3 5.8 9.7 -17.1 -10.2 60.1 64.7 75.0 -32.1 11.0 11.6 6.4 11.9 6.9 -0.2 2.7 -2.1 n.a. n.a. 5. Total loans 2 6. Business loans 2 7. Security loans 8. Real estate loans 9. Consumer loans 1.8 -16.9 4.6 -7.6 4.0 -- Short- and Intermedi ate-Term Business Credit 10. 11. 12. Total short- and intermediateterm business credit (sum of lines 14, 15 and 16) Business loans net of bankers acceptances 2.6 8.8 14.7 11.7 15.5 n.a. n.a. -10.7 14.3 24.2 19.1 15.1 5.2 10.0 -3.0' 18.7 36.8 23.8 20.2 21.1 19.1 17.4 7.3 11.0 Commercial paper issued by nonfinancial firms 3 62.6 -19.3 13. Sum of lines 11 & 12 -2.9 10.1 14. Line 13 plus loans at foreign branches 4 -0.6 9.6 19.6 18.2 18.6 11.1 11.6 Finance company loans to business 5 -2.3 -4.6 14.6 22.4 22.0 n.a. n.a. Total bankers acceptances outstanding 5 31.5 21.0 -15.7 -42.9 -13.3 n.a. n.a. 15. 16. 1. Average of Wednesdays for domestic chartered banks and average of c urrent and preceding ends of months for foreign-related institutions. 2. Loans include outstanding amounts of loans reported as sold outright to a bank's own foreign branches, unconsolidated nonbank affiliates of the bank, the bank's holding company (if not a bank), and unconsolidated nonbank subsidiaries of the holding company. 3. Average of Wednesdays. 4. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S. firms by foreign branches of domesticchartered banks. 5. Based on average of current and preceding ends of months. n.a.--not available. UPDATED SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS 1 (Percent) 1980 Mid June* Dec. High Low Change from: FOMC Dec. High Feb. 3 1981 Mar. FOMC 26 Feb. 3 Short-term rates Federal funds 2 8.99 19.83 17.19 13.48 -6.35 -3.71 Treasury bills 3-month 6-month 1-year 6.18 6.60 7.00 17.14 15.74 14.06 14.85 13.90 12.92 12.97 12.65 12.21 -4.17 -3.09 -1.85 -1.88 -1.25 -.71 Commercial paper 1-month 3-month 6-month 7.98 7.78 7.59 20.77 19.88 18.58 16.86 15.98 14.92 13.49 13.39 13.08 -7.28 -6.49 -5.50 -3.37 -2.59 -1.84 Large negotiable CDs 3 1-month 3-month 6-month 7.96 7.90 7.66 21.29 20.90 19.19 16.71 16.50 15.93 13.70 13.88 14.02 -7.59 -7.02 -5.17 -3.01 -2.62 -1.91 Eurodollar deposit 2 1-month 3-month 8.88 8.99 22.54 21.36 17.56 17.23 13.84 14.31 -8.70 -7.05 -3.72 -2.92 12.00 21.50 19.50 17.50 -4.00 -2.00 U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) 3-year 10-year 30-year 8.56 9.47 9.49 14.41 13.57 13.17 13.48 12.98 12.61 13.64 13.34 12.92 -.77 -.23 -.25 Municipal (Bond Buyer) 7.44 10.56 9.914 10.53 10.79 14.51 15.03 14.06 14.085 Bank prime rate Intermediate- and longterm rates Corporate Aaa New issue Recently offered Primary conventional mortgages 12.35 Mid-Oct. High 14.95 Mar.-Apr. Low Stock Prices 972.44 759.13 Dow-Jones Industrial 77.24 55.30 NYSE Composite 363.33 215.69 AMEX Composite 199.43 124.09 NASDAQ (OTC) 1. One-day quotes except as noted. 2. Averages for statement week closest to date 3. Secondary market. 4. One-day quotes for preceding Thursday. 9.814 -.75 13.99p 5 -1.04 -. 10 -.09 15.405 .45 .33 15.075 Percent change from: FOMC Feb.3 Mar.26 Mar-Apr Low Feb. 3 941.38 73.46 335.87 193.56 shown. 1005.76 +32 +7 +7 78,43 +42 +8 361.32 +68 +8 +69 209.53 5. One-day quotes for preceding Friday. * Most lows occurred on or around June 13. 

Federal Reserve (1981, March 30). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19810331_part2

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19810331_part2,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1981},
  month = {Mar},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19810331_part2},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}