Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) March 16, REVISED SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 1979 TABLE OF CONTENTS THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Industrial production . * . . . . . . . * . , . .. .. , Book value of retail trade inventories . . . . . . . * . . , Book value of total manufacturing and trade inventories . . THE DOMESTIC FINANCIAL ECONOMY TABLES: Monetary Aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Selected Financial Market Quotations . . . . . . . .* NOTE: There were no revisions in the Commercial Bank Credit table that was included in Wednesday's Greenbook (page II-10). SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES The Domestic Nonfinancial Economy Industrial production is estimated to have risen 0.3 per cent in February, after being unchanged in January. Production of some items in February was again affected by adverse weather, but evidently less than in January. The index now indicates gains in total output of 0.6 per cent in November and 0.8 per cent in December. And in February at 151.2 per cent of the 1967 average, industrial production was 8.6 per cent above a year earlier. Increases in production in February were widespread and generally moderate. Large gains occurred in output of equipment and nondurable goods materials while sharp declines were again recorded in production of automotive products, coal, and to a lesser extent refined petroleum products. Output of consumer goods as a group was unchanged in February; there were moderate gains in production of home goods and some nondurable consumer goods but further declines in auto and utility vehicle assemblies and a drop in the production of consumer fuel such as gasoline. Auto assemblies were at an 8.8 million unit rate in February--off slightly from the 8.9 million rate in January. Output of business equipment rose 0.5 per cent further in February with relatively large increases in manufacturing, power, and commercial equipment. As in January, the growth in output of construction supplies was small, following the extremely sharp increase in December. Production of materials rose 0.3 per cent in February, reflecting increases in the output of equipment parts and chemical and paper materials. Energy materials production declined for the second successive month due mainly to reduced coal output. The book value of retail trade inventories rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $10.3 billion in January, following a $4.0 billion rate increase in December and a $9.9 billion rate of accumulation for the fourth quarter as a whole. The January increase in stocks was accompanied by essentially unchanged sales (up .2 per cent), and the ratio of all retail inventories to sales edged up to 1.43 from the December level of 1.42. Retailers' inventories of durable goods rose at a $13.7 billion annual rate in January, almost twice the December pace. As in the previous three months, accumulation was concentrated at dealers of motor vehicles. The book value of nondurable goods retail inventories declined at a $3.4 billion rate, about the same rate of decline as in December. Stocks were reduced at apparel and accessory stores and at the "other" grouping of nondurable goods retailers. Stocks at general merchandisers increased somewhat as sales declined, and the inventory to sales ratio for these merchants rose in January; at this point the unavailability of the complete revision makes it impossible to place this recent rise in its historical perspective. -3The book value of total manufacturing and trade inventories increased at an annual rate of $64.9 billion in January, well above the $39.5 billion fourth quarter gain. This was the strongest surge in inventory investment since the similarly large gains last March and April. The ratio of inventories to sales for these nonfarm businesses rose, in part because of a decline in sales. MONETARY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted)1/ H1 QIII 1978 QIV Nov. Dec. 1979 Jan. Feb,e / Feb. '78 to Feb. '79e/ Major monetary aggregates 1. M-1 2. M-l+ (M-1 plus savings deposits at CBs and checkable deposits at (currency plus demand deposits) thrift institutions) (M-1 plus time & savings deposits at CBs, other than large CDs) 4. M-3 (M-2 plus all deposits at thrift institutions) Bank time- and- savings deposits 5. Total 6. Other than large negotiable CDs at weekly reporting banks (interest bearing component of M-2) Savings deposits Individuals 2/ 3. 11. 8.1 4.4 -2.0 1.7 -5.3 -3.7 6.2 6.0 2.4 -5.1 -1.6 -8.2 -7.0 7.7 9.9 7.7 4.7 2.7 -1.2 2.5 8.3 10.4 9.3 6.7 5.5 2.8 4.7 12.2 11.3 5.1 9.0 9.0. M-2 Other 3/ 10. 8.0 Time deposits Small time 4/ 12. 13. 7.6 11.1 2.9 2.3 2.7 3.5 5.2 -12.7 11.7 18.5 6.8 12.0 21.5 30.3 12.4 21.9 10.2 9.4 -0.9 -9.6 -0.8 -6.9 0.0 -45.9 19.2 24.5 15.1 12.0 26.2 46.0 3.5 -7.5 -6.9 -7.9 12.0 11.2 13.3 1.6 7.0 -13.0 -12.0 -17.4 -8.2 40.0 -61.9 12.7 20.7 15.7 23.3 8.8 16.3 Large time 4/ Time and savings deposits subject to rate ceilings (7+11) 4.7 6.3 6.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 4.1 Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions 5/ 14. Total 10.4 11.3 11.6 9.6 9.3 8.5 7.38 15. Savings and loan associations 10.7 12.3 13.1 11.1 11.5 11.4 11.0 16. Mutual savings banks 6.6 6.9 7.8 6.0 3.4 3.4 4.2 17. Credit unions 17.0 13.7 10.1 4.6 9.1 -4.5 -6.8 MEMORANDA: Average monthly changes, billions of dollars 18. Total U.S. Govt. deposits 6/ 0.3 1.1 -0.5 0.9 -5.6 -0.6 -4.6 19. Total large time deposits 7/ 3.6 3.3 4.9 10.8 2.4 4.7 3.1 20. Nondeposit sources of funds 8/ 0.7 1.1 2.4 -1.9 4.1 5.7 2.9 e -- estimated. 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ Quarterly growth rates are computed on a quarterly average basis. Savings deposits held by individuals and nonprofit organizations. Savings deposits of business, government, and others, not seasonally adjusted. Small time deposits are time deposits in denominations less than $100,000. Large time deposits are time deposits in denominations of $100,000 and above excluding negotiable CDs at weekly reporting banks. 5/ Growth rates computed from monthly levels based on average of current and preceding end-of-month data. 6/ Includes Treasury demand deposits at commercial banks and Federal Reserve Banks and Treasury note balances. 7/ All large time certificates, negotiable and nonnegotiable, at all CBs. 8/Nondeposit borrowings of commercial banks from nonbank sources include Federal funds purchased and security RPs plus other liabilities for borrowed money (including borrowings from the Federal Reserve), gross Eurodollar borrowings, and loans sold, less interbank borrowings. .. v 11.6 8.7 -1.5 -1.1 -6.4 17.4 14.1 23.6 5.2 10. 11.9 6.0 9.8 0.1 3.7 1.7 SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS (Per cent) 1978 1/ High Low Short-term rates Federal funds 1/ Treasury bills 3-month 6-month 1-year Commercial paper 1-month 3-month 6-month 1978-1979 2/ FOMC Feb 6 6 6 FeS, Mar. -I Change from: Dec. Feb. FOC FOMC - OC 10.25 6.58 9.75 10.06 10.07 10.213/ +.46 +.15 9.30 9.51 9.62 6.16 9.21 9.61 9.61 9.21 9.34 9.30 9.42 9.42 9.49 9.50 9.43 +.28 -. 11 -. 18 +.28 +.16 +.13 10.29 10.52 10.56 6.48 6.68 10.22 10.42 10.48 9.75 9.92 9.97 9.75 9.96 10.02 9.88 9.98 10.02 -.34 +.13 +.06 +.05 10.35 10.90 11.50 9.86 10.14 10.50 9.89 10.15 10.53 9.93 10.17 10.50 -. 42 6.77 6.97p -. 73 -1.00 +.07 +.03 0 -.12 4/ Large negotiable CD's10.36 1-month 10.96 3-month 11.52 6-month 1, FOMC Dec.ar19 Dec. 19 6.45 6.55 6.70 n.a. 9.45 -. 44 -. 46 Eurodollars 3-month 11.95 7.20 11.69 10.81 10.75 10.69 -1.00 T--k prime rate 11.57 7.75 11.50 11.75 11.75 11.75 +.25 0 U.S. Treasury (constant maturities) 9.59 3-year 9.22 7-year 9.00 20-year 7.40 7.72 8.01 9.49 9.15 8.99 9.13 9.01 8.94 9.41 9.13 9.09 9.40 9.16 9.08 -. 09 +.01 +.09 +.27 +.15 +.14 Municipal 5 (Bond Buyer)- 6.67 5.58 6.45 6.22 6.42 6.30 -. 14 +.08 Corporate Aaa New issue 6/ Recently offered 7/ 9.30 8.61 9.54 8.48 9.29 9.35 -9.40 9.64 9.67 9.6 +.29 +.24 10.38 Low 8.98 High /8 10.35 10.40 10.43 10.40 +.05 0 FOMC Dec. 19 FOMC Feb. 6 Dec. Mar (C Feb. PFMC +57.17 +3.50 +25.27 +..43 +24.17 +1.09 +13.49 +3.54 .ediate- and longterm rates Primary conventional mortgage 7/ Stock prices Dow-Jones Industrial NYSE Composite AMEX Composite NASDAQ (OTC) 7 742.12 907.74 48.43 60.38 119.73 176.87 102.66 149.53 789.85 52.58 146.38 122.42 882185 54.99 158.16 124.31 1/ Daily averages for statement week, except where noted. 2/ One-day quotes except as noted. 3/ Average for statement week ending March 14. ' ,ndary market. 4/ lay quotes for preceding Thursday. 5/ 6/ .. -ages for preceding week. 7/One-day quotes for preceding Friday. 8/ Calendar week averages. 826.58 54.88 164.15 124.43 4 p arr. 15 847.02 56.08 171.65 127.85 

Federal Reserve (1979, March 19). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19790320_part1

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19790320_part1,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1979},
  month = {Mar},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19790320_part1},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}