Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Content last modified 6/05/2009. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - February 11, 1977 FOMC SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Retail sales............................................ Wholesale prices....... ........................... ... .................... Initial claims for State unemployment insurance.............. Senate and House Budget Committees........................... TABLES: Recent price changes......................................... Initial unemployment claims 1977............................ Comparison of congressional budget targets.................... THE DOMESTIC FINANCIAL ECONOMY TABLE: Interest rates ................. ....... .... .... ...... ........... ERRATA Part-II....................................................... SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES The Domestic NonfinancialEconomy January retail sales were estimated by the Commerce Department to be down 2 per cent from a slightly upward revised December level. Sales by automobile dealers were estimated to have declined by 6 per cent, while all other sales declined 1 per cent. Declines were spread over several categories, but sales by apparel and accessory stores reported a sizable increase for the month. Wholesale prices rose 0.5 per cent, seasonally adjusted (not at an annual rate), from December to January as measured about January 11. Industrial commodities increased 0.5 per cent, seasonally adjusted, largely as a result of higher prices for metals and metal products, machinery and equipment, chemicals and allied products, textile products and apparel, and miscellaneous products such as tobacco products and notions. Excluding the fuels and power group, industrial commodities rose 0.7 per cent, slightly above the rate posted for December. This reflected reported reductions in gasoline and petroleum prices. Farm and food products rose 0.3 per cent, seasonally adjusted, with increases for fresh and dried vegetables, manufactured animal feeds, rise. grains, and live poultry accounting for most of the - 2 - RECENT PRICE CHANGES (Per cent changes at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted data)1/ Relative impor- Dec. 74 Dec. 75 Dec. 75 June 76 Sept 76 Dec. 76 tance to to to to to to Dec. 76 Dec. 75 Dec. 76 June 76 Sept 76 Dec. 76 Jan. 77 Wholesale Prices All commodities 100.0 4.2 4.7 3.9 3.3 7.4 5.8 Farm and food products 21.6 -.3 -1.1 1.0 -12.2 6.6 3,9 Industrial commodities Excluding fuels and related products and power Materials, crude and intermediate 2/ 78.4 6.0 6.4 4.8 8.2 7.8 5.7 67.7 5.0 6.1 5.6 6.7 6.6 8.1 49.1 5.4 6.7 5.4 7.7 8.4 4.8 18.7 12.1 6.7 8.2 4.8 6.5 3.1 5.8 8.2 5.0 5.2 9.2 11.6 4.7 10.4 5.5 -2.5 -1.2 -13.8 8.6 -1.3 Finished goods Consumer nonfoods Producer goods Memo: Consumer foods 1/ 2/ Not compounded for one-month changes. Estimated series. The report of initial claims for State unemployment insurance benefits for the week ending February 5 provides more evidence of layoffs due to weather and natural gas curtailments than the preceding week. On a seasonally adjusted basis, State initial claims rose 120,000 during the first week of February; not seasonally adjusted, the level rose 185,000 and was 55 per cent above a year ago. In addition, Florida has reported that 27,000 workers not covered by State unemployment insurance--largely farmworkers--have filed claims for unemployment insurance benefits under the Disaster Assistance Act. - 3 INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS 1.977 Jan. 1 Jan. 8 Jan. 15 Jan. 22 Jan. 29 Feb. 5 seasonally adjusted Initial Claims Total 433.1 467.2 407.0 465.4 465.0 590.4 Regular State Programs 375.6 407.5 360.8 418.9 417.0 536.8 57.5 59.7 46.2 46.5 48.0 53.6 518.7 702.1 Other not seasonally adjusted Regular State Programs 558.1 685.4 597.2 598.0 The Senate and House Budget Committees have approved revised budget targets for fiscal year 1977. The Congressional outlay and receipts totals which are presented below, include a fiscal package that is almost $2 billion larger than President Carter's $15.5 billion proposal. Comparison of Congressional Budget Targets (billions of dollars; fiscal year 1977) Second Concurrent Resolution Third Concurrent Resolution House Senate Senate Adjusted* $362.5 $346.8 $349.0 $348.5 Outlays 413.1 415.0 417.2 418.8 Deficit (-) or Surplus -50.6 -68.2 -68.2 -70.3 Passed 9/10/76 Receipts * The Senate treats the regular earned income credit and the special $50 payment to earned income credit recipients as a tax cut; whereas the House, OMB and the FRB staff treat them as an expenditure. An adjustment therefore, is needed to make the Senate and the House totals comparable, as regards budget accounting. -4 - The Domestic Financial Economy No textual addendums to the Greenbook were required, but the usual updating of interest rate developments is contained in the table on page 6. ERRATA - PART II: 11-14: Section 235 in the heading and footnote of the table on page 11-14 should read Section 236. III-T-1 Table: Selected Domestic Financial Data Current Month 1977 line 24: line 25: 111-6 Table: Business Loans at Commercial Banks Total of Above Credits .8 .8 25.0 91.3 Commercial Bank Credit January line 5: Business loans line 9: Business loans less bankers acceptances Business loans less bankers acceptances plus nonfinancial commercial paper line 10: line 11: Year to Date 1977 Business loans (including bankers acceptances) plus nonfinancial paper 12 months DecemberJanuary ending January 1.0 1.0 12.5 3.8 .2 14.2 7.1 1.3 4.4 2.0 5.4 7.5 -5- IV-18: parallel increases in their volume of foreign trade (4th line) Change to: IV-20 Table 2: Italy - Current Account (NSA) 1976 was -2.2e Change to: IV-20 Table 2: parallel movements in their volume of foreign trade. -3.0e Italy - Current Account (NSA) 1976-IV (last column) was -3.0e. Change to: -3.8e - 6 INTEREST RATES (One day quotes--ih per cent) 1976 Highs 1977 Lows Jan. 17 Feb. 10 Short-term Rates Federal funds (wkly. avg.) 3-month Treasury bills (bid) Comm. paper (90-119 days) Bankers' acceptances Euro-dollars CD's (NYC) 90 days Most often quoted new 5.53(6/30) 4.63(12/22) 4.65(1/19) 4.66(2/9) 5.57(6/2) 6.00(6/15) 4.24(12/20) 4.63 4.75 4.83 5.00 5.95(6/2) 6.81(6/1) 4.63(12/31) 4.58(12/20) 4.81(12/8) 4.65 4.75 4.83 5.19 5.75(6/16) 4.50(12/29) 4.70(1/12) 4.75(2/9) 5.96(5/27) 6.00(6/22) 6.42(5/27) 4.47(12/23) 4.63(12/31) 4.72(12/22) 4.88 4.86 4.75 5.11 4.88 5.21p 6.50(6/2) 4.60(12/29) 4.88(1/12) 5.00(2/9) 6.39(5/27) 6.86(5/28) 4.59(12/27) 5.00(12/27) 5.07 5.48 5.12 5.63p 6.75(6/16) 3.70(5.28) 4.80(12/15) 2.50(12/31) 5.13(1/12) 5.25(2/9) 2.75(2/11) 7.82(5/27) 8.20(5/21) 5.99(11/26) 7.17(12/31) 6.60 7.54 6.76 7.60 7.97(12/20) 9.08(12/17) 7.98 9.05 8.01(2/9) 9.09(2/9) 8.95(5/28) 7.93(12/10) 8.05(1/14) 8.15(2/4) Municipal Bond Buyer Index 7.13(1/8) 5.83(12/30) 5.89(1/13) 5.93(2/3) Mortgage--average yield in FNMA auction 9.20(6/1) 8.39(12/27) 8.46(1/10) 8.52(2/7) 6-month Treasury bills (bid) Comm. paper (4-6 mos) Federal agencies CD's (NYC) 180 days Most often quoted new 1-year Treasury bills (bid) Federal agencies CD's (NYC) Most often quoted new Prime municipals 2.85(1/14) Intermediate and Long-term Treasury (constant maturity) 5-year 20-year Corporate Seasoned Aaa Baa New Issue Aaa Utility 8.66(1/2) 10.34(1/2) 

Federal Reserve (1977, February 14). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19770215_part3

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19770215_part3,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Feb},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19770215_part3},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}