Greenbook/Tealbook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Content last modified 6/05/2009. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II November 12, 1976 - FOMC SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Retail sales,......... 6... j .............................. Wholesale trade inventories,;..... ........................... 1 2 TABLE: Retail sales................................................ 2 THE DOMESTIC FINANCIAL ECONOMY TABLE: Interest rates ............................................... 4 SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES The Domestic Nonfinancial Economy Retail sales in October increased 3/10's of a per cent from a sharply downward revised September level, according to the advance partial sample estimate. Excluding autos and mainly non- consumer items, the gain was 0.5 per cent. Consistent with the earlier weekly data, the largest increases in sales were among the general merchandise group and the apparel stores. Reflecting the strike at Ford Motors, sales of the automotive group were down for the second successive month. Present data indicate a 1.1 per cent increase in total sales in the third quarter, instead of the 1.9 per cent gain that occurred in the Spring quarter. On balance, the further moderation in the third quarter was concentrated in the automotive group. Excluding autos and mainly nonconsumer items, the third quarter increase in sales was 1.6 per cent--about the same as the 1.3 per cent increase of the second quarter. Sales at apparel and general mer- chandise stores, especially among softgoods, strengthened markedly in the third quarter. - 2 - RETAIL SALES (Seasonally adjusted, percentage change from previous period) 1976 1976 QII QIII Total Sales 1.9 Durable Aug. Sept. Oct. 1.1 1.7 -1.3 .3 3.4 .0 2.9 -4.7 -.4 Auto 4.5 -.8 4.3 -6.5 -.3 Furniture and appliances 2.7 -.4 .8 1.2 1.7 1.1 .4 .6 -3.4 6.0 1.2 -.5 2.3 Food Stores 1.2 .9 1.6 -,5 .6 General merchandise -.1 2.9 3.1 -1.6 1.6 Gasoline Stations .0 2.6 .4 1.6 .4 Total, less auto and nonconsumption items 1.3 1.6 1.2 .1 .5 GAF -.2 2.9 2.4 -1.6 1.5 .6 .9 Nondurable Apparel Real* .3 -2.9 .0 n.a. * Deflated by an unpublished Bureau of Economic Affairs price measure. Wholesale trade inventories. The book value of wholesale trade inventories rose at a $6.1 billion annual rate in September, faster than the $2.4 billion August rate of rise. The resulting third quarter increase was at $3.5 billion average annual rate, substantially below the $9.0 billion second quarter average annual rate of accumulation. - 3 - NOTE: Industrial production data for October will be ready for release, November 16. The Domestic Financial Economy No textual addendums to the Greenbook were required, but the usual updating of interest rate developments is contained in the table on page 4. -4- INTEREST RATES (One day quotes - in per cent) 1976 Nov. 10 Highs Lows Oct. 18 5.58(6/30) 4.70( 2/18) 4.97(10/20) 4.98 5.57(6/2) 6.00(6/15) 5.95(6/2) 6.81(6/1) 4.68( 1/29) 5.00(11/5) 4.80( 4/21) 5.19( 4/22) 4.79 5.00 4.93 5.38 4.92 5.13 5.00 5.25 5.75(6/16) 4.88( 4/21) 5.00(10/13) 5.06 5.96(5/27) 6.00(6/22) 6.42(5/27) 4.90(10/18) 5.15(10/15) 4.90 5.13 5.20 5.05 5.13 5.36(11/5) 6.50(6/2) 5.00(10/20) 5.25(10/13) 5.30 6.39(5/27) 6.86(5/28) 5.02(10/18) 5.50(10/18) 5.02 5.50 5.60(11/5) 6.75(6/16) 5.50(10/13) 3.70(5/28) 5.38( 2/4) 2.85(11/5) 2.85(10/15) 5.50 2.95(11/12) 7.82(5/27) 8.20(5/21) 6.55(10/18) 7.63(10/15) 6.55 7.66 6.78 7.76 8.29(11/4) 9.10(11/10) 8.30 9.18 8.33 9.10 8.95(5/28) 8.15(10/15) 8.15(10/15) 8.31(11/11) Municipal Bond Buyer Index 7.13(1/8) 6.25(10/14) 6.25(10/14) 6.39(11/11) Mortgage--average yield in FNMA auction 9.20(6/1) 8.67(11/1) 8.70 8.67(11/1) Short-Term Rates Federal funds (wkly. avg.) 3-month Treasury bills (bid) Comm. paper (90-119 day) Bankers' acceptances Euro-dollars CD's (NYC) 90 days Most often quoted new 6-month Treasury bills (bid) Comm. paper (4-6 mo.) Federal agencies CD's (NYC) 180 day Most often quoted new 1-year Treasury bills (bid) Federal agencies CD's (NYC) Most often quoted new Prime municipals 5.13(11/10) 5.18 Intermediate and Long-Term Treasury coupon issues 5-years 20-years Corporate Seasoned Aaa Baa New Issue Aaa Utility 8.66(1/2) 10.34(1/2) 

Federal Reserve (1976, November 15). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19761116_part3

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19761116_part3,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Nov},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19761116_part3},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}