Greenbook/Tealbook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee March 16, By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 1973 SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES The Domestic Economy Seasonally adjusted private housing starts declined slightly in February to an annual rate of 2.44 million units from an upward revised rate of 2.50 million in January. Northeast showed a rise in February. Regionally, only the Building permits declined further in February but continued at a high level. The average rate of starts in January and February was above the 2.40 million annual rate in the fourth quarter but March starts are likely to be down. If so, the average for the first quarter may be close to that in the fourth quarter. PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS AND PERMITS February 1973 (Thousands of Units) 1/ Percent change from: January 1973 February 1972 Starts 2/ 2,444 - 2 - 4 1-family 2- or more-family 1,361 1,083 - 6 + 3 + 6 -14 355 + 3 +32 North Central South West 578 1,080 431 - 5 - 1 - 5 +11 - 8 -26 Permits 2,155 - 3 + 5 Northeast 1-family 1,069 + 1 +11 2- or more-family 1,086 - 6 - 1 1/ Seasonally adjusted annual rates; preliminary. 2/ Apart from starts, mobile home shipments for domestic use in January--the latest month for which data are available--were at a record seasonally adjusted annual rate of 677 thousand units--up 21 percent from December, and 22 percent above a year earlier. -2New homes sold by merchant builders in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 735,000. This was little changed from the advanced December rate and only moderately below the record pace reached in last year's fourth quarter. Also, with buyers con- centrating on the larger and better equipped units, the January rate was accompanied by a further rise in the median price of new homes sold--to $30,400 or nearly $2,000 more than the median price of unsold units still in builders' inventories. At the same time, however, such inventories continued upward and equaled nearly 7 months' supply at the January rate of sales--a new high for the series which began in 1963. NEW SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD AND FOR SALE Median price of Homes Sold 1/ Homes 682 284 25.5 25.9 QIII 717 386 27.9 27.1 QIV (r) 760 404 29.0 28.3 October (r) November (r) December (r) 831 711 737 394 401 404 28.9 28.9 29.7 27.6 27.8 28.3 420 30.4 28.5 for Sale 2/ (Thousands of units) Homes for Sale Homes Sold (Thousands of dollars) 1971 QIV 1972 1973 January (p) 735 1/ SAAR. 2/ SA, end of period. p - Preliminary r - Revised. - 3 - Agriculture. Intended 1973 crop plantings are generally higher than 1972 plantings and are at about the levels for which USDA had hoped. Expected spring wheat and soybean plantings are on target. Corn planting intentions--7 percent higher than last year's acreage-fall about 2 percent short of the 1973 feed-grain program target. PROSPECTIVE CROP PLANTINGS FOR 1973 IN 35 STATES, SURVEYED (Million acres) Target a Crop1973 72.7 Corn - All Feed Grain Indicatedb 1973 1973 as percent of 1972 71.6 107.2 121.7 105.6 Spring Wheat 15.9 15.3 120.5 All Wheat c 58.7 58.2 10 6 Soybeans 53.5 53.8 114.5 -- 13.1 93.4 Cotton .0 d aNational target adjusted downward to show acreage targets for 35 states. bFarmers intentions as of March 1, 1973. C SIncludes winter wheat already planted. Since a greater proportion of the 1973 wheat crop will probably be harvested as grain, production of grain should be about 12 percent above 1972. CORRECTION: Page III-20. In line 3 insert "at an annual rate of" before "about 4-1/2 percent." - 4 The Domestic Financial Situation. Corporate profits. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has released preliminary estimates of corporate earnings for the final quarter of 1972. Total corporate book profits in the fourth quarter grew by over $6 billion, a 23 percent increase over a year ago. Almost three quarters of this increase is accounted for by the earnings of domestic nonfinancial corporations, which are 28 percent larger than a year ago. If book profits are adjusted to eliminate inventory profits, both of these rates of increase are about two percentage points less. An additional $1 billion represents the increased earnings of financial institutions, while profits originating in the rest of the world rose by about $.4 billion, a decline of 7 percent from the final quarter of 1971 when a substantial repatriation of foreign exchange earnings occurred. Preliminary fourth quarter data from the Federal Trade Commission indicate that there was substantial growth in the profits of durable goods industries, particularly in the primary metals and motor vehicles sectors. For durables, as well as for manufacturing as a whole, increases in profit margins contributed more to this growth in earnings than did the increase in sales. The opposite was true in the case of many nondurable goods industries, but major exceptions were petroleum and a group which includes textiles, leather and apparel among other industries. -5 - While there has been a modest increase in the effective tax rate since the final quarter of 1971, the tax rate for 1972 as a whole is less than that for 1971. For 1972 tax payments and profits reflect greater allowances for depreciation under the ADR, and tax payments reflect the investment tax credit as well as tax offsets carried forward from previous years' write-offs and losses. Dividends are virtually unchanged from the third quarter; normally far less volatile than profits, they have also been prevented from increasing as rapidly as they might otherwise have by the control program of the Committee on Interest and Dividends. Thus with both undistributed profits and depreciation allowances increasing, cash flow was 17 percent larger than it was in the final quarter of 1971, the same rate of increase as that for the year as a whole. CORPORATE PROFITS: PRELIMINARY FOURTH QUARTER All Corporations 1/ 1972-IV $Billion SAAR Profits before tax and inventory valuation adjustment Domestic Nonfinancial Corporations Percentage change from 1971-IV 1972- I I I 1972-IV $Billion SAAR Percentage change from 1971-IV 1972-III 95.9 20.8 7.0 70.0 25.9 7.4 101.9 22.5 6.5 75.9 27.8 6.5 Profits tax liability 44.5 26.1 6.5 35.8 30.7 6.9 Profits after tax 54.7 19.6 6.5 40.1 25.3 6.1 Dividends 26.7 6.0 0.8 20.2 8.6 0.0 Undistributed profits 30.7 35,2 12.5 19.9 47.4 13.7 100.2 16.9 4.8 86.4 16.9 4.1 43.7 3.1 0.0 47.2 2.4 0.4 Profits before tax Cash flow 2/ Effective tax rate (per cent) 3/ Payout rate (percent) 4/ 46.5 -11.4 -5.5 50.4 1/ Includes both foreign and domestic profits. 2/ Capital consumption allowances plus undistributed profits. 3/ Profits tax liability/Profits before tax. 4/ Dividends/Profits after tax. -13.3 -5.6 CORPORATE PROFITS: PRELIMINARY YEAR TOTALS All Corporations 1/ Percent Year change from 1972 year 1971 $Billion Domestic Nonfinancial Percent Year change from 1972 year 1971 Billion Profits before tax and inventory valuation adjustment 88.3 12.3 64.5 15.0 Profits before tax 94.3 13.2 70.5 16.0 Profits tax liability 41.3 10.7 33.1 12.6 Profits after tax 53.1 15.7 37.4 19.5 Dividends 26.4 3.9 20.2 3.6 Undistributed profits 26.7 30.2 17.1 43.7 Cash flow 2/ 94.4 16.8 82.0 17.5 Effective tax rate (percent) 3/ 43.8 -2.2 47.0 -2.9 -10.1 54.0 -13.1 49.7 Payout rate (percent) 4/ 1/ Includes both foreign and domestic profits. Capital consumption allowances plus undistributed profits. 2/ Profits tax liability/Profits before tax. 3/ Dividends/Profits after tax. 4/ -8- INTEREST RATES 1973 1972 Highs Lows Feb. 9 Mar. 15 Short-Term Rates Federal funds (wkly. avg.) 5.38 (12/20) 3-month Treasury bills (bid) Comm. paper (90-119 day) Banker's acceptances Euro-dollars CD's (prime NYC) Most often quoted new 5.19 5.63 5.63 6.31 (12/19) (12/29) (12/29) (12/5) 3.18 (3/1) 2.99 3.75 3.75 4.62 (2/11) (2/29) (2/23) (3/8) 6.21 (2/7) 7.13 (3/14) 5.44 6.13 6.50 7.38 6.11 6.75 6.25 8.31 5.50 (12/27) 3.50 (2/23) 6.25 (2/7) 6.75 5.39 (12/29) 5.63 (12/29) 5.64 (12/29) 3.35 (1/10) 3.88 (3/3) 3.79 (2/17) 5.68 6.13 6.08 6.64 6.88 5.63 (12/27) 3.88 (2/23) 6.38 (2/7) 7.00 (3/14) 5.55 (9/22) 5.86 (12/26) 3.57 (1/8) 4.32 (1/17) 5.77 6.34 6.60 7.04 5.75 (12/27) 3.20 (12/27) 4.62 (1/19) 2.35 (1/12) 6.38 (2/7) 3.40 (2/8) 7.00 (3/14) 4.05 Treasury coupon issues 5-years 20-years 6.32 (9/14) 6.22 (4/14) 5.47 (1/13) 5.71 (11/15) 6.51 6.87 6.85 6.93 Corporate Seasoned Aaa Baa 7.37 (4/24) 8.29 (1/3) 7.05 (12/7) 7.89 (12/29) 7.24 7.97 7.29 8.02 7.60 (4/21) 7.08 (3/10) 7.46 (2/7) 7.52 Municipal Bond Buyer Index 5.54 (4/13) 4.99 (1/13) 5.16 (2/7) 5.34 Mortgage--implicit yield in FNMA auction 1/ 7.72 (10/16) 7.54 (3/20) 7.71 (2/5) 7.75 (3/5) 6-month Treasury bills (bid) Comm. paper (4-6 mo.) Federal agencies CD's (prime NYC) Most often quoted new 1-year Treasury bills (bid) Federal agencies CD's (prime NYC) Most often quoted new Prime municipals (3/14) 6.82 Intermediate and Long-term New Issue Aaa Utility 1/ Yield on short-term forward commitment after allowance for commitment fee and required purchase and holding of FNMA stock. Assumes discount on 30year loan amortized over 15 years. 2/ This rate now reflects the yield on the Treasury's new 20-year, 6-3/4 per cent bond that was auctioned on January 4. APPENDIX A: SURVEY OF CHANGES IN BANK LENDING PRACTICES* An increase in the strength of demands for commercial and industrial loans was reported in the three months ending February 15 by two-thirds of the banks participating in the Quarterly Survey of Changes in Bank Lending Practices. An even greater percentage of the banks, moreover, were anticipating a continuation of stronger demand over the next three months. (Table 1) As might be expected, an across the board tightening of credit policies accompanied the growth in loan demand, A majority of the banks indicated a firmer policy regarding interest rates, accompanied, in many cases, by increases in compensating balance requirements. Standards of credit worthiness had become more stringent, and policies regarding maturities on term loans tightened appreciably. All customers came under increased scrutiny in reviewing loan applications and credit lines, though new and nonlocal service area customers received the greatest attention in executing tighter policies. The value of applicants as depositors or as a source of collateral business also received significantly greater emphasis. At the same time, there was a reduction in willingness to make term loans, reversing a persistent movement toward easing in term lending recorded in prior Surveys. Looking at the current results more closely, nearly 70 per cent of the banks had firmer interest rate policies, while about 40 per cent of the banks had given greater weight to compensating or supporting balances. Several banks indicated in supplementary responses that because of a relatively low prime rate they were giving extra consideration to the credit worthiness of accounts and monitoring more closely new commitments made at the prime. About 40 per cent of the respondents showed firmer policies regarding new and nonlocal service area customers, and nearly 48 per cent gave more emphasis to the value of applicants as depositors or as sources of collateral business. In contrast to the previous quarter when almost one-fifth of the banks were more willing to make term loans to nonfinancial business, term lending was restricted at over one-fifth of the reporting banks. More of this tightening in term loans had occurred at banks with deposits under $1 billion. (Table 2) Thirty per cent of the banks under $1 billion were moderately less willing to make term loans, in contrast to thirteen per cent of the larger banks. * Prepared by Richard Puckett, Senior Economist, and Virginia Lewis, Research Assistant, Banking Section, Division of Research and Statistics. A-2 There were other notable divergences between larger and smaller banks. For example, banks under $1 billion were somewhat more restrictive regarding standards of credit worthiness. They more heavily emphasized the value of loan applicants as depositors and were somewhat Nonetheless, 70 per more restrictive in lending to finance companies. cent of the smaller banks judged loan demands to be stronger versus 80 per cent of the larger -- perhaps reflecting switching from the commercial paper market by the larger banks' customers. In any case, more bigger banks anticipated heavier loan demands in the next three months -- 91 per cent as opposed to 83 per cent of their smaller counterparts. As for geographical variations, strengthening of loan demands as well as tightening in terms and conditions of lending seemed to be widespread. However, the New York District was firmer than average, while Chicago was somewhat easier. (Table 3) A-3 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION TABLE 1 QUARTERLY SURVEY OF CHANGES IN BANK LENDING PRACTICES AT SELECTED LARGE BANKS IN THE U.S. 1/ (STATUS OF POLICY ON FEBRUARY 15, 1973 COMPARED TOTHREE MONTHS EARLIER) (NUMBER OF RANKS & PERCENT OF TOTAL BANKS REPORTING) MUCH STRONGER TOTAL BANKS PCT BANKS PCT MOOERATELY STRONGER FSSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATFLY WFAKER BANKS RANKS BANKS PCT STRENGTH OF DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS (AFTER ALLOWANCE FOR BANK'S USUAL SEASONAL VARIATION) PCT PCT MUCH WEAKFR BANKS PC' COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS AGO 125 100.0 16 12.8 82 65,6 26 20.8 1 0.8 0 0.0 ANTICIPATED DEMAND IN NEXT 3 MONTHS 125 100.0 13 10.4 9b 76,0 17 13.6 0 0.0 0 0.0 ANSWERING QUESTION BANKS PCT MUCH FIRMER POLICY BANKS PCT MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY FSSENTIALLY UNCHANGEO POLICY MODERATELY EASTER DOLICY BANKS RANKS BANKS PCT PCT PCT LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES MICH (aSIE POLICY RANKS PCT TERMS AND CONDITIONS: INTEREST RATES CHARGED 125 100.0 COMPENSATING OR SUPPORTING BALANCES 125 100.0 STANDARDS OF CREDIT WORTHINESS 125 MATURITY OF TERM LOANS 10.4 86 6B,8 26 20.8 606 5.6 50 40.0 67 %3.6 100.0 4.8 25 20.0 94 75.2 125 100.0 0.8 23 18.4 96 76.8 ESTABLISHED CUSTOMERS 125 100.0 1 0.8 19 15.2 104 83.? 0 0.0 NEW CUSTOMERS 125 100.0 9 7.2 44 35.2 70 56.0 0 0.0 LOCAL SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS 125 100.0 1 0.8 17 13.6 104 83.2 0 0,0 NONLOCAL SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS 125 100.0 9 T,2 41 32.8 73 58.4 0 0.0 REVIEWING CREDIT LINES OR LOAN APPLICATIONS I/ SURVEY OF LENDING PRACTICES AT 125 LARGE BANKS REPORTING IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE QUARTERLY AS OF FEBRUARY 15. 1973. INTEREST RATE SURVFY NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION TABLE 1 (CONTINUED) ANSWERING QUESTION BANKS PCT MUCH FIRMER POLICY BANKS PCT MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY BANKS BANKS BANKS PCT PCT PCT MUCH EASIER POLICY BANKS PCT FACTORS RELATING TO APPLICANT 2/ VALUE AS DEPOSITOR OR SOURCE OF COLLATERAL BUSINESS 124 100,0 50 40.3 65 52.4 INTENDED USE OF THE LOAN 123 100.0 19 15.4 101 82.2 INTEREST RATES CHARGED 100,0 42 33.f 80 64.0 COMPENSATING OR SUPPORTING BALANCES 100,0 25 20.0 98 78.4 ENFORCEMENT OF BALANCE REQUIREMENTS 100.0 27 21.6 93 74.4 ESTABLISHING NEW OR LARGER CREDIT LINES 100,0 36 28.8 78 62.4 LENDING TO "NONCAPTIVE" FINANCE COMPANIES TERMS AND CONDITIONS: ANSWERING QUESTION BANKS PCT CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING BANKS MODERATELY LESS WILLING PCT BANKS PCT ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED RANKS PCT MODERATELY MORE WILLING PCT BANKS WILLINGNESS TO MAKE OTHER TYPES OF LOANS TERM LOANS TO BUSINESSES 125 100.0 0 0.0 28 22.4 90 72.0 5.6 CONSUMER INSTALMENT LOANS 124 100.0 0 0.0 3 2.4 108 87.1 8.9 SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS 123 100.0 2 1.6 9 7,3 99 80.5 10.6 MULTI-FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS 122 100.0 2 1.6 12 9.8 103 84.5 4.1 ALL OTHER MORTGAGE LOANS 123 100,0 2 1.6 12 9.8 97 78.8 9.8 PARTICIPATION LOANS WITH CORRESPONDENT BANKS 124 100.0 10.5 106 85.5 LOANS TO BROKERS 123 100.0 11.4 99 2/ FOR THESE FACTORS* FIRMER MEANS THE FACTORS WERE CONSIDERED MORE IMPORTANT CREDIT REQUESTS* AND EASIER MEANS THEY WERE LESS IMPORTANT. O8.5 IN MAKING DECISIONS FOR APPROVING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING BANKS PCT A-5 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION TABLE 2 COMPARISON OF QUARTERLY CHANGES IN BANK LENDING PRACTICES AT BANKS GROUPED BY SIZE OF TOTAL DEPOSITS FEBRUARY 15, 1973. COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS EARLIER) (STATUS OF POLICY ON (NUMBER OF BANKS IN EACH COLUMN AS PER CENT OF TOTAL BANKS ANSWERING QUESTION) SIZE TOTAL S1 & OVER UNDER Sl OF BANK MUCH STRONGER Sl & OVER UNDER $1 -- TOTAL DEPOSITS 1/ IN RILLIONS MODERATELY STRONGER ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY WEAKER S1 & OVER S1 & OVER Sl L OVER UNDER Si UNDER $1 UNDER 51 MUCH WEAKER Sl1 OVER UNDER t$ STRENGTH OF DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS (AFTER ALLOWANCE FOR BANK'S USUAL SEASONAL VARIATION) COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS AGO 9 30 0 0 ANTICIPATED DEMAND IN NEXT 3 MONTHS 9 17 0 0 TOTAL Sl & OVER UNDER Sl MUCH FIRMER 1S & OVER UNDER S1 MODERATELY FIRMER ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY EASIER Sl & OVER $1 & OVER S1 & OVER UNDER Sl UNDER S1 UNDER $1 MUCH EASIER Sl & OVER LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES TERMS AND CONDITIONS! INTEREST RATES CHARGED 100 100 13 8 63 73 COMPENSATING OR SUPPORTING BALANCES 100 100 6 6 44 37 STANDARDS OF CREDIT WORTHINESS 100 100 2 7 17 23 81 70 0 0 MATURITY OF TERM LOANS 100 100 0 1 17 20 79 75 4 4 ESTABLISHED CUSTOMERS 100 100 NEW CUSTOMERS 100 100 LOCAL SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS 100 100 NONLOCAL SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS 100 100 REVIEWING CREDIT LINES OR LOAN APPLICATIONS 1/ SURVEY OF LENDING PRACTICES AT 54 LARGE BANKS (DEPOSITS OF $1 BILLION OR MORE) AND 71 SMALL BANKS (DEPOSITS OF LESS THAN Si BILLION) REPORTING IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY AS OF FEBRUARY 15 1973. UNDER $1 A-6 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION TABLE 2 (CONTINUED) SIZE NUMBER ANSWERING QUESTION $1 & OVER UNDER $1 OF BANK MUCH FIRMER POLICY $1 & OVER UNDER $1 -- TOTAL DEPOSITS IN BILLIONS MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY S1 & OVER $1 OVER UNDER $1 FACTORS RELATING TO APPLICANT 2/ VALUE AS DEPOSITOR OR SOURCE OF COLLATERAL BUSINESS 100 100 INTENDED USE OF THE LOAN 100 100 INTEREST RATES CHARGED 100 100 COMPENSATING OR SUPPORTING BALANCES 100 100 ENFORCEMENT OF 100 100 100 100 UNDER $1 MODERATELY EASIER POLICY $1 & OVER UNDER $1 MUCH EASIER POLICY SI & OVER UNOER 51 LENDING TO "NONCAPTIVE" FINANCE COMPANIES TERMS AND CONDITIONS: BALANCE REQUIREMENTS ESTABLISHING NEW OR LARGER CREDIT LINES NUMBER ANSWERING QUESTION $1 & OVER UNDER $1 CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING $1 & OVER UNDER $1 MODERATELY LESS WILLING $1 & OVER UNDER $1 ESSENTTALLY UNCHANGED Sl & OVER UNDEH Sl MODERATELY MORE WILLING Sl & UNDER OVER 51 S1 & OVER 2 8 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 WILLINGNESS TO MAKE OTHER TYPES OF LOANS TERM LOANS TO BUSINESSES 100 100 CONSUMER 100 100 90 8; 8 SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS 100 100 as 85 a7R9 13 MULTI-FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS 100 100 86 84 8 ALL OTHER MORTGAGE LOANS 100 100 84 74 10 PARTICIPATION LOANS WITH CORRESPONDENT BANKS 100 100 0 0 87 85 4 LOANS 100 100 4 1 78 84 INSTALMENT LOANS TO BROKERS 2/ FOR THESE FACTORS, FIRMER MEANS THE FACTORS WERE CONSIDERED MORE IMPORTANT CREDIT REQUESTS9 AND EASIER MEANS THEY WERE LESS IMPORTANT. CONSInfRARLY MORF WILLING IN MAKING DFCISIONS FOP APPROVING 4 UNnER $1 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION TABLE 3 QUARTERLY SURVEY OF CHANGES IN BANK LENDING PRACTICES AT SELECTED LARGE BANKS IN THE U.S. 1/ STATUS OF POLICY ON FEBRUARY 15, 1973 COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS EARLIER (NUMBER OF BANKS) ALL DSTS BOSNEW YORK TON TOTAL CITY OUTSIDE PHILADEL. CLEVE- RICHLAND MOND ATLAN- CHICST. TA AGO LOUIS MINNE- KANS. APOLIS CITY STRENGTH OF DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS (AFTER ALLOWANCE FOR BANK'S USUAL SEASONAL VARIATION) COMPARED TO 3 MONTHS AGO MUCH STRONGER MODERATELY STRONGER ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY WEAKER MUCH WEAKER ANTICIPATED DEMAND NEXT THREE MONTHS MUCH STRONGER MODERATELY STRONGER ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY WEAKER MUCH WEAKER 125 16 82 26 1 0 125 13 95 17 0 0 LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES TERMS AND CONDITIONS INTEREST RATES CHARGED MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY COMPENSATING BALANCES MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY 125 13 86 26 0 0 125 7 50 67 1 0 1/ SURVEY OF LENDING PRACTICES AT 125 LARGE BANKS REPORTING IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY AS OF FEBRUARY 15 1973. DALLAS SAN FRAN A-8 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION TABLE 3 ALL DSTS BOSNEW YORK TON TOTAL CITY OUTSIDE (CONTINUED) PHILADEL. CLEVE- RICHLAND MONO ATLAN- CHICST. TA ASO LOUIS LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES MINNE- KANS. APOLIS CITY DAL" LAS SAN FRAN TERMS AND CONDITIONS STANDARDS OF CREDIT WORTHINESS MUCH FIRMEN POLICY MODERATLLY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY MATURITY OF TERM LOANS MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY 125 6 25 94 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 1 6 13 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 1 4 6 0 0 1 1 4 0 0 0 3 8 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 2 2 6 0 0 1 2 12 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 3 5 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 1 12 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 0 5 6 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 1 11 0 0 1 2 7 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 1 7 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 7 1 0 0 2 6 1 0 0 0 11 2 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 4 16 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 2 9 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 1 10 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 o 15 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 7 1 0 0 2 11 0 0 1 5 2 0 0 1 12 7 0 0 0 5 4 0 0 1 7 3 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 2 9 1 0 3 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 0 0 9 0 0 1 1 7 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 5 3 0 0 0 4 4 1 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 5 15 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 3 8 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 1 9 1 0 0 0 11 1 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 0 15 0 O 0 2 7 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 0 1 11 1 0 125 1 23 96 5 0 REVIEWING CREDIT LINES OR LOANS ESTABLISHED CUSTOMERS MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY NEW CUSTOMERS MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY LOCAL SERVICE AREA CUSTOMERS MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY 125 1 19 104 1 0 125 9 44 TO 2 0 6 125 1 17 104 3 0 A-9 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION TABLE 3 (CONTINUED) ALL OSTS BOSNEW YORK TON TOTAL CITY OUTSIDE PHILAOEL. CLEVE- RICHLAND MOND LENDING TO NONFINANCIAL BUSINESSES ATLAN- CHICST. TA AGO LOUIS MINNEAPOLIS KANS. CITY DALLaS 1 2 5 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 4 0 0 0 3 6 0 0 0 4 B 1 0 1 4 1 2 5 0 0 4 5 SAN FRAN REVIEWING CREDIT LINES OR LOANS NONLOCAL SERVICE AREA CUST MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY 125 9 41 73 2 0 1 2 5 0 0 2 7 11 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 2 5 4 0 0 1 3 9 50 65 0 2 3 3 0 2 9 9 0 0 3 6 0 MUCH EASIER POLICY 0 0 0 INTENDED USE OF LOAN 123 0 5 7 0 0 3 2 5 0 0 0 4 11 0 0 0 4 7 0 0 2 6 3 0 1 2 3 0 2 3 6 0 0 6 6 0 0 6 4 0 0 5 10 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FACTORS RELATING TO APPLICANT 2/ VALUE AS DEPOSITOR OR SOURCE OF COLLATERAL BUSINESS MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH FIRMER POLICY 124 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 19 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 4 1 0 17 2 101 4 1 1 7 10 5 2 11 12 12 9 MODERATELY EASIER POLICY 6 2 5 1 0 0 7 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MUCH EASIER POLICY 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 5 MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCMANGED POLICY LENDING TO "NONCAPTIVE" FINANCE COMPANIES TERMS AND CONDITIONS INTEREST RATES CHARGED 125 MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY 3 42 0 5 0 6 0 3 0 3 1 2 0 3 0 4 2 4 0 2 0 3 ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY 80 3 14 6 8 3 8 8 4 13 6 1 6 0 0 0 0 4 S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY 2/ FOR THESE FACTORS, FIRMER MEANS THE FACTORS WERE CONSIDERED MORE IMPORTANT IN MAKING DECISIONS FOR APPROVING CREDIT REQUESTS* AND EASIER MEANS THEY WERE LESS IMPORTANT. NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION TABLE 3 (CONTINUED) ALL DSTS LENDING TO "NONCAPTIVE" FINANCE COMPANIES TERMS AND CONDITIONS: SIZE OF COMPENSATING BALANCES MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY ENFORCEMENT OF BALANCE REQUIREMENT MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY ESTABLISHING NEW CREDIT LINES OR LARGER MUCH FIRMER POLICY MODERATELY FIRMER POLICY ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED POLICY MODERATELY EASIER POLICY MUCH EASIER POLICY WILLINGNESS TO MAKE OTHER TYPES OF LOANS TERM LOANS TO BUSINESSES CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING CONSUMER INSTALMENT LOANS CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLINe CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING SOSNEW YORK TON TOTAL CITY OUTSIDE PHILADEL. CLEVE- RICHLAND MOND ATLAN- CHICST. TA AGO LOUIS MINNE- KANS. APOLIS CITY DALLAS SAN PRAN A-11 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION TABLE 3 (CONTINUED) ALL DSTS BOSNEW YORK TON TOTAL CITY OUTSIDE PHILADEL. WILLINGNESS TO MAKE OTHER TYPES OF LOANS SINGLE FAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE LOANS CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING ALL OTHER MORTGAGE LOANS CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING PARTICIPATION LOANS WITH CORRESPONDENT BANKS CONSIDERABLY LESS WILLING MODERATELY LESS WILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING LOANS TO BROKERS CONSIDERABLY LESS MILLING MODERATELY LESS MILLING ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED MODERATELY MORE WILLING CONSIDERABLY MORE WILLING NUMBER OF BANKS ATLAN- CHICTA AGO CLEVE- RICHLAND MOND ST. LOUIS MINNE. KANS. APOLIS CITY DALLAS SAN FRAN 123 2 9 99 13 0 0 0 5 3 0 0 2 14 2 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 2 8 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 1 10 1 0 2 0 7 1 0 0 1 14 0 0 0 2 6 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 0 10 3 0 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 14 1 0 0 0 6 1 a 0 2 B 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 1 10 0 0 0 1 11 0 0 1 2 7 0 0 1 1 12 1 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 1 11 1 0 0 1 4 3 0 0 2 14 2 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 0 1 8 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 10 1 0 8 0 0 1 1 11 2 0 1 7 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 1 11 1 0 0 1 6 1 0 0 4 16 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 4 7 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 9 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 1 14 0 0 0 1 7 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 8 1 0 0 0 11 2 0 0 1 6 1 0 1 3 IS 1 0 0 1 8 0 0 1 2 7 1 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 1 9 1 0 0 1 11 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 1 1 12 1 0 0 1 7 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 11 2 0 122 2 12 103 5 0 123 2 12 97 12 0 2 1 124 0 13 106 5 0 123 3 14 99 6 1 125 0 APPENDIX B: ESTIMATED EFFECT OF THE RECENT DEVALUATION ON THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX* A fairly accurate estimate of the direct effects of the recent U.S. devaluation and other exchange rate changes on domestic prices paid by U.S. consumers would require the following information: (1) the expected change in price at the retail level of major types of imports resulting from the devaluation; (2) the share of imports in total domestic expenditures of the major items included in the consumer price index (CPI); (3) the relative importance in the CPI of the items that would be affected by import price changes. The difficulty with this technique is that it requires an estimation of the effect of the devaluation on prices of various categories of imports. It is not feasible to make systematic calculations along these lines without undertaking an extended study that would assemble data not available at this time. However, an alternative rough estimate can be obtained by assuming that the expected change in import prices resulting from the devaluation will be the same for all categories of goods, and then applying this estimated price change to the share of imports in total consumer expenditures. For example, the estimated retail value of imports of consumer goods in 1972 was equal to about 6 percent of total final consumer expenditures, including services, and 10 percent of the total excluding services. If import prices, across the board, were to rise by 5 percent (two-thirds of the estimated 8 percent average recent appreciation of foreign currencies), then the total CPI index would rise by roughly .3 percent (6 percent x 5 percent). For goods alone the increase would be slightly higher, or roughly .5 percent (10 percent x 5 percent). If personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in 1973 were an estimated $800 billion, then the additional cost to the consumer would be roughly $2-1/2 billion ($800 billion x .3 percent). These estimated price effects are the initial or direct effects. They do not reflect the working through into final products of higher prices of imported industrial materials and capital equipment used in the production of domestic goods. Also, in view of the current high level of domestic economic activity and the appearance of supply problems in some industries, additional pressure on U.S. prices may result from acceleration in the volume of exports and an increase in the demand for domestic goods as U.S. consumers shift from foreign goods as a result of the devaluation. In addition, to the extent that imports had been a restraining influence on domestic prices of similar products, a rise in import prices may result in a corresponding rise B - 2 in such domestic prices. These effects are difficult to quantify. But it is quite likely that these effects could be sizable, possibly equaling the direct effects indicated above. We understand that the Department of Labor (BLS) is to determine the importance of imports in those categories of for which they collect price information. A number of import specifically identified in the WPI; these make up about 1-1/2 attempting goods items are percent of prices collected for the WPI. Most of the items are foodstuffs or crude materials -- bananas, coffee, pepper, natural rubber, tin, iron ore, etc. There are a few finished products such as foreign passenger cars, tape recorders, and radios. Except for cars, they have relatively little weight in the WPI. In the last few months BLS has initiated work that will identify the share of imports in a number of individual CPI categories. In the past, BLS specifications of the commodities included in the CPI have been generic, i.e., by type of good, rather than by place of production. If BLS is successful in collecting this new information, it may then be possible to make a more definitive estimate as outlined in the first paragraph. *Prepared by Daniel Roxon, Senior Economist, Division of International Finance. C- 1 APPENDIX C: SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS* The January 31 Survey of Bank Loan Commitments showed a moderation in the rate of growth of outstanding unused commitments at the 42 banks reporting the volume of such obligations. (Table 1A) Furthermore, commitment policies firmed dramatically in the face of widespread expectations of rises in takedowns over the next three months and reduced fund availability. (Tables 2 and 3) The percentage growth in total unused commitments--3.4 per cent over the three month interval-was at a considerably lower pace than recorded in previous Surveys. 1/ This can be traced to the lowest rate of growth in two years, 1.7 per cent, in unused commitments to make C&I loans. Within the commercial and industrial category, unused commitments were marked by a substantial percentage rise in commitments to make term loans--continuing the rises noted in earlier Surveys, The total increase, though, was dampened by a more modest increase in revolving credits and confirmed lines. The low rate of growth in the total C&I category, however, was partly offset by a vigorous rise in commitments to nonbank financial institutions and a high rate of increase in mortgage commitments. The growth in both these areas probably reflected the continued strong level of construction activity and a build-up in commitments to finance the seasonal upturn in construction in the spring. For commitments of nonbank financial institutions, the "all other" component--for savings and loan associations, mutual savings banks, and mortgage and insurance companies--showed by far the greatest growth. This was accompanied by a fast rate of increase in commitments 1/ * After adjustments for a break in series on October 31, 1972. Prepared by Richard Puckett, Senior Economist, and Virginia Lewis, Research Assistant, Banking Section, Division of Research and Statistics. C-2 for mortgage warehousing. Both components, of course, are closely linked to construction activity. Some build-up in commitments in the other" category may be connected with attempts to arrange for stand"all by sources of funds in case of possible disintermediation. The patterns shown for new commitments and takedowns, expirations, and cancellations were generally consistent with the movements in previous Surveys and, moreover, were not out of line with the most recent growth in unused commitments. (Tables 1B, 1C) Given the history of appreciable rises in total unused commitments and widespread expectations of rises in takedowns over the next three months, commitment policies firmed according to 21 of the 48 respondents. (Table 2) With heavy loan demands and decreases in liquidity at commercial banks, it seems reasonable to expect further tightening of commitment policies. C-3 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED LARGE U.S. BANKS *1 (AS OF JAN. 31, 1973) TABLE 1A UNUSED CCMMITMENTS (DOLLAR AMOUNTS IN BILLIONS) (1) AS OF JAN. 31 1973 AMT I1 I (2) (3) I AS OF OCT. 31 1972 AS OF JUL. 31 1972 I rfw I A MT I NUMBER OF BANKS UNUSED COMMITMENTS C C I FIRMS NONBK FINAN INSTS REAL ESTATE MORTG MEMO: CONSTRUCTION LOANS INCL ABOVE 42 42 ia rr IT I 62.01 3.4| 79.41 60.81 15.31 5.91 4.71 1.71 59.8 7.01 12.51 16.71 14.31 5.31 4.11 1I I COMMERCIAL & INDUST FIRMS TERM LOANS REVOLVING CREDITS TOT: TERM £ REV *2 CONFIRMED LINES OTHER COMMITMENTS NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCE COMPANIES MTGE WAREHOUSING ALL OTHER 3.41 14.91 19.01 37.21 4.61 10.01 2.01 3.41 1.11 -0.11 3.11 14.61 18.41 36.81 4.61 8.6) 2.41 4.31 2.91 8.41 15.51 2.21 3.71 19.01 9.01 AMT ~I I 9 r ur 42 42 4.61 4.61 2.71 10.71 8.21 75.91 57.21 13.91 4.71 3.81 5.31 4.71 6.31 8.91 8.71 I I I I I I I 22.41 2.61 4.11 14.01 6.91 17.21 2.71 35.91 11.3) 4.11 I1 I I I I 72.11 54.61 13.11 4.41 3.51 I I 8.31 2.21 3.41 2.21 8.21 13.9) AM T 42 2.51 2.71 1.01 5.91 8.21 1 13.91 2.21 3.91 13.51 4.91 16.41 4.81 34.21 3.21 4.01 I1 (5) 19 wr II I 0.91 0.41 11.11 I I I I 1.81 -8.19 3.4) 24.2) 8.11 2.C0 42 2.91 53.21 13.01 4.11 3.21 3 .41 51,11 12.21 3.61 2.91 6,7 ( 13.6) 9.21 12.01 6.81 1.81 2.61 AMT 1!9 42 2.91 2.41 4.11 6.21 1,01 65.11 50.01 11.71 3.41 2.91 I I I I I I I I 8.11 1.91 3.01 1.61 2.61 2.6| 16.51 31.01 3.71 I1 19.91 1.91 3.91 1.71 1.41 7.71 1.91 2.61 1 16.61 1.31 11.81 2.31 1.91 13.31 15.91 30.41 3.61 3.01 12.3 -. 01 3.21 5.21 171.91 7) 17.71 NOTE: MINOR INCONSISTENCIES MAY OCCUR IN FIGURES DUE 42 I rCkI 7.31 1.81 2.61 62.11 47.41 11.31 3.41 2.71 6.4 6.5 3.0 18.0 18.8 1.81 12.91 15.41 28.91 3.11 16.9 1.2 1.5 8.5 15.4 I I I 2.69 1.91 10.61 2.61 I 7.11 1.61 2.61 0.0 -1.6 16.0 1.01 2.31 17.7 18.2 I 13.71 2.31 I 1.21 2.21 12.31 -4.01 *1 BANKS PARTICIPATING IN THE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY -- MAINLY BANKS WITH TOTAL DEFOSITS OF $1 BILLION OR MORE. *2 THE TOTAL MAY EXCEED THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS TWC ITEMS SINCE SCME BANKS REPORT ONLY TOTALS. *3 GROWTH RATES MAY BE MISLEADING SINCE A BREAK IN SERIES OCCURRED AT THIS TIME. ** If I I1 5.21 5.0) 0.21 AMT I 4.71 5.31 3.31 1.11 5.41 I1 I 5.81 2.71 12.21 i I 1 2.31 13.61 rC I I I -6.61 2.71 1.21 5.61 2.31 AS OF APR. 30 1971 I I I 1 13.51 1.31 rwCr I I 66.91 I 2.01 2.81 I- 5.01 2.11 14.01 16.71 32.71 3.81 0.71 5.11 -0.81 AMT 70T31 5.01 -3.11 -1.71 4.61 5.41 I ri -4'- (8) (7) AS OF JUL. 31 1971 (6) AS OF OCT. 29 1971 AS OF JAN. 31 1972 I 8.41 2.21 3.71 I1 REAL ESTATE MORTGES RESIDENTIAL OTHER I3 *3( WCr wr i II I 44) AS CF SII APR. 30 . II II 1972 ur' 1 I AM 1I rL ii r~IT r i TO ROUNDING. ** NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED LARGE U.S. BANKS *1 (AS OF JAN. 31, 1973) TABLE 1B NEW COMMITMENTS (DOLLAR AMOUNTS IN BILLIONS) (1) I AS OF JAN. 31 I 1973 AMT ~uL-r NUMBER OF BANKS GRAND TOTAL NEW COMMITMENTS C & I FIRMS 14CNBK FINAN 1NSTS REAL LSTATE MORTG MEMO: CONSTRUCTION LOANS INCL ABOVE COMMERCIAL E INDUST FIRMS TERM LOANS REVOLVING CREDITS TCT: TERM & REV *2 CONFIRMED LINES OTHER COMMITMENTS NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCE COMPANIES MTGE WAREHOUSING ALL OTHER 1I 1.6 I 9.31 I 1 I I 4.0 1 1 I I I 34.81 S-0.6) S10.21 S-2.31 S 2.81 I I I I 11.11 22.41 11.31 1.1 1 1.6 1 9.51 10.01 IT *3 rur 14) (3) AS OF JUL. 31 1972 . AMT I rur ..... l . I (5) AS OF JAN. 31 1972 AS OF APR. 30 1972 .I .. . AMT . . . rut. I -11 , AMT 42 I 42 I I 42 I I I I 2b.01 -23.61 21.11 -24.91 4.31 -31.61 2.51 lt.01 1.71 26.61 I I 36.61 28.11 6.31 2.21 1.31 35.31 27.01 1I.61 38.01 20.41 33.31 4,71 12.31 1.91 1.21 12.11 29.91 23.91 11.71 10.01 1 1 I1 I1 I I 2.94 5.41 -17.41 -1.81 8.61 -7.51 11.01 -36.91 1.51 I I 10.01 I I 1.91 -46.21 0.81 -17.01 1.51 -9.2) I I 1.01 1.51 I1 3.61 5.51 9.31 17.51 1.41 61.21 11.61 2.21 4.91 7.31 n 42 23.41 18.21 3.61 1.61I 1 2.01 11.71 4.41 6.51 11.81 5.21 1,31 -25.81 m I I I I 9.91 1.71 21.21 8.51 25.51 1.91 4.81 1 16.81 -38.71 I I I -8,81 17.61 5.41 4.81 57.01 -39.41 2.91 -48.11 1.51 -24.91 1.01 -24.21 I 1.01 42.71 3.91 1.71 36.21 1.11 22.51 1.11 3.61 0.91 1.31 2.51 0.91 0.91 1.01 51.51 1.91 I I 2.21 3.81 6.21 9.51 1.11 17.31 -44.61 -30.41 -36.61 -68.91 I 19,71 1.71 0.91 1.01 I 19.11 28.31 -0.41 65,91 57.11 1 0.81 D.al -2.21 6.01 I I 1.71 -52.61 0.51 -40.11 0.71 -40.31 I I I I 0.81 -13.01 0.81 Il ruw a~ri r -33.91 NOTE: MINOR INCCNSISTENCIES MAY CCCUR IN FIGURES DUE TC RCUliDING. ** AMT "~' 35.01 27.41 5.51 2.11 1.41 43.01 45.21 37.81 29.71 16.41 1 rwr_ I 42 I I 24.51 18.91 4.01 16.0 17.7 6.4 1.61 22.9 1.21 21.8 I I 1.91 24.5 4.81 -6.7 8.91 29.2 14.91 35.11 3.51 291.11 I1 1 1 1 3.51 63.61 0.91 46.21 1.11 -10.71 6.91 11.11 0.91 I 1.1 30.5 25.4 51.91 1.91 6.81 0.91 1.21 -0.11 40.81 16.71 *1 BANKS PARTICIPATING IN THE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY MAINLY BANKS WITH TOTAL DEPOSITS OF $1 BILLION OR MORE. *2 THE TOTAL MAY EXCEED THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS TWO ITEMS SINCE SOME BANKS REPORT ONLY TOTALS. *3 GROWTH RATES MAY BE MISLEADING SINCE A BREAK IN SERIES OCCURRED AT THIS TIME. ** r (8) AS CF APR. 30 1971 I I S 3.61 AMT ,". 42 10.31 1 I1 I I 42 I 10.91 12.11 18.71 r u- I 11 26.71 48.31 I I -5.71 38.01 I I 1 I (7) AS OF JUL. 31 1971 (6) AS CF OCT. 29 1971 AMT II CHG I I I1 I REAL ESTATE MORTGES RESIDENTIAL OTHER I AMT I I I I 5.31 3.11 13.31 9.b8 2.1 1.0 1 1.7 1 1972 I ruN I 42 I I I 29.4 I 21.8 I 4.8 I Z.b I 5.4 9.5 10.8 1.6 (2) AS OF OCT. 31 I 2.21 -4.4 0.61 -14.0 1.21 55.0 0.61 1.01 47.7 12.0 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED LARGE U.S. BANKS *1 (AS OF JAN. 31, 1973) TABLE 1C TAKEDOWNS, EXPIRATIONS, AND CANCELLATIONS *2 (DOLLAR (1) I 1973 --AMT ruc s-Y"Y "IT 42 TOTAL TAKEDOWNS C C I FIRMS NONBK FINAN INSTS REAL ESTATE MORTG MEMO: CONSTRUCTION LOANS INCL ABOVE 26.81 20.81 3.81 COMMERCIAL & INDUST FIRMS TERM LOANS REVOLVING CREUITS TOT: TERM & REV *4 CONFIRMED LINES OTHER COMMITMENTS NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCE COMPANIES MTGE WAREHOUSING ALL OTHER I I I NUMBER OF BANKS I|, 42 I I 24.51 2.11 1.21 19.71 1.41 1 10.41 1.61 18.51 3,91 2.01 I GAMT M I 42 23.61 23.7| 51.41 15.41 31.81 21.8 25.6) 2.41 4.81 7.4) 10.11 1.11 (4) 21.41 27.81 25.31 II I I I I I 50.21 30.91 28.01 1.81 27.51 1.01 21.51 I I I I5 43.0) 24.81 28.71 21.51 18.8) 3.21 55.91 5.01 8.51 26.21 33.01 15.81 30.61 1.31 23.4) 24.91 1.951 1.01 I 0.81 1.31 I I I 26.71 26.41 18.15 26.41 24.0 1.21 0.81 I 42 1 - a I I 1. 1 Ia- A a I Ln I I 25.21 19.01 4.61 1.71 0.91 25.91 25.81 25.81 28.11 16.2) 2.81 1.11 21.5) I I I 2.11 5.4) 7.61 48.31 28.4) 31.71 10.31 1.1) 23.11 22.21 23.31 17.71 20.71 20.4) 1 42 1.11 21.31 27.51 20.11 30.2) I 42 I 19.1 15.6) 2.41 1.31 I 42 22.41 23.41 io.51 26.81 32.01 24.81 33.01 20 .7 33.21 16.01 5.21 30.61 2.01 37.11 29.61 3.71 1.11 0.71 1 1.21 I 5.61 9.0 1.01 1.81 3.51 1I 44.01 20.51 25.31 22.41 22.11 1.71 6.41 8.41 13.41 3.01 47.0o 32.41 45.01 1.61 4.71 6.71 8.81 0.51 14.41 19.61 19.91 3.41 0.71 31.71 29.31 28.41 2.21 0.71 0.91 31.31 23.91 0.81 39.11 36.01 0.41 0.61 34.71 30.61 I 29.11 0.81 2o.61 2.51 0.85 23.2) 28.91 27.91 1.31 30.21 I I 4.91 0.91 30.91 24.81 0.91 0.71 1 0.7) 28.01 1.01 28.21 0.51 0.51 0.51 13.11 30.71 19.51 1 0.71 9.01 1.01 1 25.41 17.61 0.61 0.71 1.01 0.51 0.71 1.31 BANKS PARTICIPATING IN THE QUARTERLY INTEREST RATE SURVEY MAINLY BANKS WITH TOTAL DEPOSITS OF $1 BILLION OR MORE. FOR THIS TABLE THE PERCENTAGE CHANGE COLUMN CONTAINS THE RATIO OF TAKEDOWNS TO AVAILABLE COMMITMENTS; EXPRESSED AS A (AVAILABLE COMMITMENTS = UNUSED COMMITMENTS FROM THE PREVIOUS QUARTER * NEW CCMMITMENTS IN THE CURRENT QUARTER). PERCENTAGE CHANGE NOT COMPUTED FOR THIS QUARTER DUE TO THE SIZE CONSTRAINTS OF THE MATRIX. THE TOTAL MAY EXCEED THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS TWO ITEMS SINCE SOME BANKS REPORT ONLY TOTALS. GROWTH RATES MAY BE MISLEADING SINCE A BREAK IN SERIES OCCURRED AT THIS TIME. ** NOTE: MINOR I I I 25.6) 50.01 6.31 0.81 API I I I 22.51 I (B) I AS OF I APR. 30 1971 I CHG I AMT It CHG*3 (7) AS OF JUL. 3I1 1971 A IJ f I I 39.71 19.51 M1 42 3.41 1.31 50 AuA (6) AS OF OCT. 29 1971 I I 1.91 0.81 1.21 - - I I I 16.1l IV VL.f 1&aw I Ai I I 15) AS OF JAN. 31 1972 AS OF APR. 30 1972 IX H l CHG 32.81 25.6) 5.+l I I I .11 REAL ESTATE MORTGES RESIDENTIAL OTHER ~_L l *iolG AMT I LI (3 S AS CF S JUL. 31 1972 AS CF 0CT. 31 1972 *5 24.61 25.51 20.11 26.51 3.61 5.11 8.91 I (2) AS CF JAN. 3 AMOUNTS IN BILLIONS) INCONSISTENCIES MAY OCCUR IN FIGURES DUE TO ROUNDING. ** PERCENTAGE. NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED LARGE U.S. BANKS (AS OF JAN. 31, 1973) TABLE 2: VIEWS ON COMMITMENT POLICY (1) JAN. 31 1973 (2) OCT. 31 1972 (3) JULY 31 1972 (4) APR. 30 1972 (5) JAN. 31 1972 (6) OCT. 29 1971 (7) JULY 31 1971 (8) APR. 30 1971 TOTAL NUMBER OF BANKS RESPONDING: 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 UNUSED COMMITMENTS IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS HAVE: RISEN RAPIDLY RISEN MODERATELY REMAINED UNCHANGED DECLINED MODERATELY DECLINED RAPIDLY 2 23 17 6 0 1 24 19 4 0 2 17 21 8 0 0 20 21 7 0 1 22 19 6 0 0 25 15 8 0 1 19 19 9 0 5 25 12 6 0 TAKEDOWNS IN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS SHOULD: RISE RAPIDLY RISE MODERATELY REMAIN UNCHANGED DECLINE MODERATELY DECLINE RAPIDLY 4 33 11 0 0 0 28 20 0 0 0 26 21 1 0 0 26 20 2 0 0 14 28 6 0 0 13 31 4 0 0 16 31 1 0 0 13 33 2 0 COMMITMENT POLICY COMPARED TO THREE MONTHS AGO IS: MUCH MORE RESTRICTIVE SOMEWHAT MORE RESTRICTIVL UNCHANGED LESS RESTRICTIVE MUCH LESS RESTRICTIVE 0 21 25 1 1 0 0 1 42 5 0 0 1 44 3 0 ( 0 0 37 11 0 0 2 37 9 0 0 1 25 21 1 40 3 0 34 13 1 NOT FOR QUOTATION OR PUBLICATION QUARTERLY SURVEY OF BANK LOAN COMMITMENTS AT SELECTED LARGE U.S. BANKS (AS OF JAN. 31, 1973) TABLE 3 (1) JAN. 31 1973 INDICATED CHANGE: MORE RESTRICTIVE: INCREASED DEMAND REDUCED FUNDS BOTH LESS RESTRICTIVE: INCREASED FUNDS DECREASED DEMAND BOTH EXPLANATION OF CHANGES IN NEW COMMITMENT POLICY (2) OCT. 31 1972 (3) JULY 31 1972 (4) APR. 30 1972 (5) JAN. 31 1972 (6) OCT. 29 1971 (7) JULY 31 1971 (8) APR. 3C 1971 

Federal Reserve (1973, March 19). Greenbook/Tealbook. Greenbooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19730320_part1

@misc{wtfs_greenbook_19730320_part1,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Greenbook/Tealbook},
  year = {1973},
  month = {Mar},
  howpublished = {Greenbooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/greenbook_19730320_part1},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}