bluebooks · August 20, 1984

Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. August 17, Strictly Confidential (FR) 1984 Class I FOMC MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - August 17, 1984 FOMC MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Recent developments (1) M1 contracted in July at a 1-1/2 percent annual rate. It appears to be rebounding moderately in August, based on data for the early part of the month, but remains below the 5-1/2 percent path for the Juneto-September period adopted at the last Committee meeting. Expansion in currency moderated somewhat in July and other checkable deposits registered a rare, though small, decline; however, most of the weakness in M1 occurred in demand deposits, following a sharp expansion in June. (2) M2 also appears to be growing more slowly than the 7-1/2 percent rate specified by the FOMC for June to September, reflecting the sluggishness in M1 and also somewhat slower growth than expected in its nontransactions component. In July M2 expanded at a 5 percent annual rate, and may grow only a little faster in August. With interest rates high and the yield curve sharply upward sloping through much of the month, savings and money market deposit accounts continued to run off, but the less liquid small time deposit category remained quite robust, surging at a 24 percent annual rate. (3) M3 growth was relatively well maintained in July at a rate close to the FOMC's specification of 9 percent for the June-to-September period. Credit growth at banks and thrifts seems to have been fairly sizable last month, and expansion of total domestic nonfinancial sector debt is estimated to have remained around a 13 percent annual rate. A pickup of growth in federal debt offset some slowing in nonfederal debt, as -2KEY MONETARY POLICY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth) July QIV to July 11.3 -1.5 6.4 6.8 7.0 4.9 6.8 8.9 10.3 9.1 8.8 9.7 Domestic nonfinancial debt 12.5 13.5 12.6 13.0 13.4 Bank credit 13.9 10.4 9.3 11.3 QI QII 7.2 6.2 6.9 June Money and Credit Aggregates Reserve Measures1 Nonborrowed reserves 2 7.3 Total reserves Monetary base Memo: 9.0 83.5 (24.3) 7.8 26.5 7.0 11.7 15.1 (1.2) 7.5 -1.9 8.0 8.2 (Millions of dollars) Adjustment and seasonal borrowing 733 Excess reserves 754 Note: -4.9 (4.4) 1857 (1043) 1428 (1012) 9173 6043 Figures in parentheses treat all discount window borrowings by Continental Illinois after May 9 as extended credit and therefore as nonborrowed reserves; such borrowings were formally classified as extended credit on June 7. 1. Growth rates of reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities resulting from phased changes in reserve ratios under the Monetary Control Act. 2. Includes "other extended credit" from the Federal Reserve. 3. For the 2-week period ending August 15 adjustment and seasonal borrowing averaged $1,011 million and excess reserves $618 million. take-over activity lessened. M3 and domestic nonfinancial sector debt remain above their longer-run ranges. (4) Total reserves decreased in July at about a 2 percent annual rate, after expanding rapidly over the preceding two months. The slowdown last month reflected a marked deceleration in growth of required reserves, given the weakness in transactions accounts, and a reduction in excess reserves from the relatively high June level. Nonborrowed reserves plus extended credit grew by about 1-1/4 percent in July. In the two complete reserve maintenance periods since the July meeting, adjustment plus seasonal borrowing has averaged close to the $1 billion level that has prevailed for some time and was used in constructing nonborrowed reserve paths. The federal funds rate, however, has tended to drift higher, averaging a little over 11-1/2 percent recently as compared to 11-1/4 percent at the time of the July FOMC meeting. In light of the difficulties of Continental Bank and strains in the financial system more generally, depository institutions-especially large banks that are dependent on managed liabilities--seem to want to avoid borrowing at the discount window as much as possible, and instead are bidding more aggressively for funds in the market. (5) Despite rather taut money market conditions and sustained strong credit demands, prices in stock and bond markets rose sharply during the intermeeting period. Yields on long-term bonds have fallen by 5/8 to 3/4 of a percentage point, and stock price indexes have advanced by 7 to 8 percent on record trading volume, as the market reacted positively to interpretations of the future course of monetary policy in connection with the Humphrey-Hawkins hearing and to incoming econonic, price, and money data. With long-term markets more receptive, new-issue activity in the corporate bond market has increased and the Treasury's mid-quarter -4refunding was relatively well received. In shorter-term markets, yields have generally declined except at the shortest end of the spectrum. Moreover, the spread of private over Treasury rates has narrowed, apparently reflecting at least in part some strengthening in investor confidence in banks. Very recently, though, spreads have again tended to widen, as investor nervousness has been rekindled by the difficulties of a large West Coast S&L that had been quite active in the large CD market. (6) The dollar has risen by about 2/3 percent on a weighted aver- age basis since the last Committee meeting. Exchange markets have been quite volatile amid shifting market perceptions about the implications of U.S. economic activity and Federal Reserve policy for U.S. interest rates and uncertainties about the sustainability of the new highs for the dollar that occurred during the intermeeting period. Short-term interest differentials showed little change over the period, while U.S. long-term nominal rates (though perhaps not real rates) fell significantly relative to foreign long-term rates. Prospective developments (7) The table below provides three alternative specifications for growth in the monetary aggregates for the June-to-September period and associated ranges for the federal funds rate. (More detailed data, including implied growth rates for July to September, can be found in the charts and table on the following pages.) All of the alternatives involve slower growth in M1 over the three months than specified at the last FOMC meeting, given the contraction of that aggregate in July and the relatively short time before the end of the quarter. Of the alternatives, the aggregate specifications of A, which involves some easing of money market conditions, generally come closest to those adopted at the last meeting. Alternatives B and C contemplate unchanged and tighter market conditions respectively, with somewhat greater deviations of M1 and M2 from the July specifications. M3 growth would be broadly consistent with its July short-run path under all of the alternatives. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Memo: July FOMC 3-1/2 6-3/4 8-3/4 5-1/2 7-1/2 9 Growth from June to September Ml M2 M3 4-1/2 7-1/4 9-1/4 Federal funds rate range (8) 7-1/2 to 11-1/2 4 7 9 8 to 12 8-1/2 to 12-1/2 8 to 12 Under alternative B, M1 growth would be expected to pick up to around a 6-3/4 percent annual rate in August and September, with growth larger in the latter month. The transactions demand for M1 is expected to be somewhat less than earlier anticipated given the somewhat slower growth in nominal GNP now projected for the third quarter. While M1 growth from Chart 1 Actual and Targeted M1 CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II FOMC (FR) Billions of dollars -ACTUAL LEVELS * SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES 1983 1984 Chart 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC Actual and Targeted M2 Billions of dollars Z4UU -ACTUAL ,9% LEVELS 2380 * SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES 2360 2340 / 2320 c , 2300 2280 2260 2240 2220 2200 2180 I O I N 1983 I D I J F I I M A I M 1FiAA ~ivv J J 1984 A S O N D Chart 3 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC Actual and Targeted M3 Billions of dollars 2960 -ACTUAL - 2940 - 2920 - 2900 - 2880 LEVELS 9% * SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES / -2860 6% - 2840 - 2820 - 2800 - 2780 -2760 - 2740 - 2720 - 2700 - 2680 -2660 I O I N 1983 D I J I F I M I A I M I J I J 1984 I A I S L 0 N I 2640 Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates Monthly Levels 1984--April May June July August September Alt. A ------ Alt. B ------ Alt. C ------ Alt. A ------ Alt. B ------ Alt. C ------ Alt. A ------ Alt. B ------ Alt. C ------ 535.4 541.1 546.2 535.4 541.1 546.2 535.4 541.1 546.2 2242.9 2258.6 2271.7 2242.9 2258.6 2271.7 2242.9 2258.6 2271.7 2790.0 2815.9 2837.3 2790.0 2815.9 2837.3 2790.0 2815.9 2837.3 545.5 548.0 552.3 545.5 548.0 551.7 545.5 548.0 551.0 2281.0 2293.4 2312.3 2281.0 2293.4 2281.0 2293.4 2309.5 2858.1 2877.4 2902.9 2858.1 2877.4 2900.8 2858.1 2877.4 2898.7 10.7 11.1 9.1 10.7 11.1 9.1 2310.7 Growth Rates Monthly 1984--April May June July August September 1984 June to Sept. 1984 July to Sept. 0.7 12.8 11.3 0.7 12.8 11.3 0.7 12.8 11.3 7.0 8.4 7.0 7.0 8.4 7.0 7.0 8.4 7.0 10.7 11.1 9.1 -1.5 5.5 9.4 -1.5 5.5 8.1 -1.5 5.5 6.6 4.9 6.5 9.9 4.9 6.5 9.1 4.9 6.5 8.4 8.8 8.1 10.6 8.8 8.1 9.8 8.8 8.1 8.9 4.5 7.5 4.0 6.8 3.5 6.0 7.2 8.2 6.9 7.8 6.7 7.5 9.3 9.4 9.0 9.0 8.7 8.5 7.2 6.2 5.7 7.2 6.2 5.5 7.2 6.2 5.4 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.9 6.8 6.5 8.9 10.3 9.3 6.7 6.5 6.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 9.8 Growth Rates Quarterly Average 1984--Ql Q2 03 8.9 10.3 9.2 8.9 10.3 9.1 Memo: '83 Q4 to Sept.'84 9.7 9.6 June to September would be only about 4 percent at an annual rate under this alternative, basis. it would grow about 5-1/2 percent on a quarterly average M1 velocity would increase at a 2-1/2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, considerably below the rate of increase in the first half of the year, but still probably slightly above the underlying trend at unchanged interest rates. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, demand for M1 might be expected to pick up and velocity growth to moderate a bit further as the restraining effects of previous interest rate increases on money demand diminish. With interest rates remaining roughly around current levels into the fourth quarter, as assumed in the staff GNP forecast, M1 growth for QIV 1983 to QIV 1984 might be around 6-1/2 percent. (9) The more rapid growth expected for M1 over the balance of the quarter would also be reflected in sme acceleration of M2 from its recent reduced pace. But for the June-to-September interval M2 growth is expected to remain somewhat below the 7-1/2 percent rate specified by the Committee. M3 growth, meanwhile, should remain around the 9 percent rate of June and July, following its unexpectedly rapid growth in the spring. (10) Debt of nonfinancial sectors is likely to grow less in the current quarter than in the first half of the year, in part because of reduced merger-related financing. However, underlying needs of businesses for external finance should increase as capital spending outstrips internal cash generation, and federal government credit usage will remain high. moderating, though. Consumer and mortgage credit demands appear to be We are assuming that mortgage markets and confidence in thrift institutions generally will not be adversely affected to any significant extent by repercussions from the Financial Corporation of America (FCA) situation. -8(11) The specifications of alternative B assume borrowing at the discount window remains around $1 billion. Given the recent attitudes of banks toward the discount window, this is expected to be consistent with federal funds trading around 11-1/2 percent or a bit higher. Should uncertainties in connection with FCA raise broader questions about the stability of the banking and financial system, even more conservative reserve management might be expected, and the funds rate could run higher relative to the level of borrowing or to free reserves. If the FCA situation is well contained, though, and incoming economic data suggest a moderation of credit demands, the funds rate could fall back some, given prevailing levels of borrowing, as market uncertainties diminish. Over the July-to-September period total reserves can be expected to increase at about a 2-1/2 percent annual rate, while nonborrowed reserves would rise less. (12) There is little reason to expect the average level of short-term rates to change much over the balance of the quarter under alternative B, but the structure of these rates could well vary, depending on such factors as the evolution of the FCA situation and the progress of negotiations with Latin American borrowers. It seems most probable that lingering uncertainties would keep quality spreads, which have narrowed modestly on balance since the last meeting, from improving further. Long-term bond markets, too, are unlikely to continue the improvement that was seen in the early part of the intermeeting period, unless economic activity appears to be much weaker than anticipated. A noticeable back-up in rates cannot be ruled out in the weeks ahead, particularly should money growth accelerate more rapidly than projected in the context of strong economic indicators. (13) The specifications of alternative A are designed to bring M1 and M2 closer to the path adopted at the previous Committee meeting, while not leading to much more rapid M3 and credit growth. They involve an easing of bank reserve positions, with borrowing dropping to around $750 million. Nonborrowed reserves would be expected to increase at about a 6 percent annual rate, and total reserves at about half that pace, over the July-to-September period. Federal funds may trade between 10-1/2 and 11 percent, perhaps not immediately but over time as the lower level of borrowing persists. Such a reduction in bank reserve pressures does not appear to be anticipated by the market, and probably would extend the recent rally in bond and stock markets, as well as lead to a decline in short-term rates and a narrowing of quality spreads. The Treasury bill rate is likely to fall below 10 percent, and 3-month CDs to around 11 percent. The decline in interest rates would relieve some of the immediate pressures on thrift earnings and reduce tensions generally in the financial system. As interest rates fell, the dollar would tend to depreciate on foreign exchange markets. (14) The easier reserve and market conditions that are expected to develop under alternative A would probably have their greatest impact on money growth in the final months of the year. The demand for money would be stimulated by the lagged effect of lower market interest rates and by transactions needs associated with somewhat faster expansion in nominal GNP than in the staff forecast. Thus, alternative A seems most consistent with Ml growth more clearly in the upper portion of its range for this year and M2 growth around its midpoint. Expansion of both M3 and debt is more likely to be somewhat further above the upper ends of their respective long-run ranges than under alternative B as private credit demands respond to the stronger economy. -10(15) Alternative C calls for sane tightening in money market conditions over the period ahead, should it be desired to place even more constraint on the growth of credit. Borrowing at the discount window would be expected to increase to $1-1/4 to $1-1/2 billion and nonborrowed reserves to decline at around a 6 percent annual rate. The federal funds rate would probably rise to the 12-1/4 to 12-1/2 percent area, and other market interest rates also would adjust upward, with Treasury bill rates climbing into the 10-1/2 to 11 percent range, and CD rates perhaps rising even more rapidly to around 12 to 12-1/2 percent as strains on the financial system increased. The associated increases in the prime rate, bond yields, and mortgage rates would probably soon restrain credit growth and spending relative to the staff's current projection. The dollar would tend to appreciate further on exchange markets, at least temporarily. (16) Such an approach would be expected to lead to growth of M1 and M2 significantly below the short-run path specified at the last Committee meeting. For the year as a whole, though, M1 growth would probably be around the midpoint of its long-run range. M2 over the year would likely be well in the lower half of its long-run range, while M3 could be expected to fall back faster toward the upper limit of its range as the tightening of credit markets led to reduced credit demands. In addition, M3 might be restrained by shifts out of CDs into Treasury securities if rising interest rates worked to undermine public confidence in the financial position of banks and thrifts. -11- Directive language (17) Proposed language for the operational paragraph is shown below, with alternatives for describing the degree of pressure on reserve positions and the symmetry of any adjustment in reserve pressures to variations in the aggregates. In the short run, the Committee seeks to DECREASE SLIGHTLY (ALT. A)/maintain (ALT. B)/INCREASE SLIGHTLY (ALT. C) existing pressures on reserve positions. This action is expected to be consistent with growth in M1, M2, and M3 at annual rates of around [DEL: 5-1/2, 7-1/2, and 9] ____, ____, AND ____percent respectively during the period from June to September. Somewhat greater reserve restraint would be acceptable in the event of more substantial growth of the monetary aggregates, while somewhat lesser restraint might [WOULD] be acceptable if growth of the monetary aggregates slowed significantly. In either case, such a change would be considered only in the context of appraisals of the continuing strength of the business expansion, inflationary pressures, financial market conditions, and the rate of credit growth. The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated 8 12] to with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of [DEL: percent. ____ TO ____ Selected Interest Rates Percent Short-Term ___ CDs secondary aTreasury bills secondary market Period funds t - 3-month 1 2 ~r 1-year -month 3.nonth 4< 3 -- - -- c pom money markel papret 1-month mutual fund loan 6 7 8 bank U S. government constant ___ Long Term municorporate maturity yields -.- 3-year r--- 10year 1 10 cipal conven- oered 12 Buyer at S&Lo 13 14 Bond 20, 1984 home motgages A utility recently 30-year 11 Auguas blonal FHAVA lling FNMA 1 year M 15 16 1983--High Low 10.21 8.42 9.49 7.63 9.64 7.72 9.79 7.82 9.93 8.15 9.85 8.02 8.79 7.71 11.50 10.50 11.57 9.40 12.14 10.18 12.11 10.32 13.42 11.64 10.56 9.21 13.89 12.55 13.50 11.50 12.50 10.49 1984--High Low 11. 63 9.41 10.49 8.84 10.63 8.94 11.09 9.01 11.71 9.35 11.15 9.16 10.55 8.70 13.00 11.00 13.44 10.87 13.84 11.62 13.81 11.69 15.30 12.83 11.44 9.86 14.68 13.19 14.00 12.50 13.70 11.25 9.37 9.56 9.45 9.08 9.34 9.00 9.26 9.51 9.15 9.34 9.60 9.27 9.50 9.77 9.39 9.15 9.41 9.19 8.34 8.69 8.77 10.50 10.89 11.00 10.90 11.30 11.07 11.38 11.85 11.65 11.40 11.82 11.63 12.79 13.16 12.98 10.06 10.25 10.20 13.42 13.81 13.73 12.30 13.38 13.00 11.93 12.16 11.86 Oct. Nov. Dec. 9.48 9.34 9.47 8.64 8.76 9.00 8.83 8.93 9.17 8.98 9.08 9.24 9.18 9.36 9.69 9.03 9.10 9.56 8.67 8.55 8.69 11.00 11.00 11.00 10.87 10.96 11.13 11.54 11.69 11.83 11.58 11.75 11.88 12.89 13.14 13.29 10.14 10.22 10.40 13.54 13.44 13.42 13.00 12.50 12.50 11.40 11.40 11.56 1984--Jan. Feb. Mar. 9.56 9.59 9.91 8.90 9.09 9.52 9.02 9.18 9.66 9.07 9.20 9.67 9.42 9.54 10.08 9.23 9.35 9.81 8.80 8.72 8.91 11.00 11.00 11.21 10.93 11.05 11.59 11.67 11.84 12.32 11.75 11.95 12.38 12.99 13.05 13.63 10.03 10.00 10.37 13.37 13.23 13.39 12.50 12.50 12.70 11.45 11.38 11.91 Apr. Kay June 10.29 10.32 11.06 9.69 9.83 9.87 9.84 10.31 10.51 9.95 10.57 10.93 10.41 11.11 11.34 10.17 10.38 10.82 9.29 9.52 9.92 11.93 12.39 12.60 11.98 12.75 13.18 12.63 13.41 13.56 12.65 13.43 13.44 13.96 14.79 15.00 10.26 10.88 11.07 13.65 13.94 14.42 13.00 13.94 14.00 12.30 12.83 13.45 July 11.23 10.12 10.53 10.89 11.56 11.06 10.25p 13.00 13.08 13.36 13.21 14.93 10.84 14.67 14.00 13.59 1983--July Aug. Sept. 1984--June 6 13 20 27 10.72 10.85 11.49 11.27 9.78 9.94 9.91 9.81 10.48 10.56 10.45 10.55 10.81 10.91 10.83 11.09 11.17 11.16 11.21 11.67 10.44 10.72 10.86 11.06 9.74 9.87 10.00 10.04 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.71 13.04 13.11 13.06 13.44 13.57 13.51 13.38 13.75 13.52 13.41 13.27 13.56 14.82 14.78 15.21 15.28 11.16 10.97 10.94 11.19 14.33 14.47 14.49 14.50 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 13.35 13.40 13.40 13.60 July 4 11 18 25 10.91 11.25 11.21 11.19 9.87 10.03 10.06 10.20 10.45 10.48 10.52 10.56 1,1.08 10.97 10.91 10.85 11.71 11.69 11.54 11.53 11.11 11.15 11.05 11.02 10.05 10.21 10.33 10.39 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.44 13.29 13.10 12.99 13.83 13.62 13.35 13.27 13.59 13.40 13.15 13.17 15.30 14.88 14.85 14.54 11.11 10.88 10.75 10.62 14.66 14.68 14.66 14.67 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 13.70 13.60 13.55 13.50 August I 8 15 22 29 11.53 11.59 11.63 10.34 10.49 10.36 10.60 10.63 10.53 10.73 10.72 10.64 11.38 11.41 11.43 10.99 11.06 11.15 10.44 10.55 10.55 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.72 12.48 12.43 12.92 12.69 12.69 12.89 12.65 12.51 14.10 14.08 14.16 10.39 14.68 10.29 10.47 14.54 14.39 14.00 14.00 13.50 13.35 13.25 13.25 11.57 11.74 10.43 10.2u 10.'.4 Ii. ,0 10.61 10.61 10.33 10.51 10.63 11.37 11.50 11.48 11.13 11.19 11.24 13.00 13.00 13.00 12.41 12.46 12.45p 12.68 12.70 12.68p 12.47 12.51 12.47p - Dilly--Aug. 1 I1 ll. 8 0p NOTE Weekly data for columns 1 througn 11-are stalemenl week averages Data in column 7 are taken from Donoghue's Money Fund Report Columns 12 and 13 are I-day quotes forFriday and Thursday, respectively. followng the end at the statement week. Column 13 is the Bond Buyer revenue index. Column 14 is an average l contract inlerels rateson new commitments forconventional first monrgages with 80 percent loan-to-value ratios at a sample of savings and loan associations on the Friday tollowing the end of the slalemenl week Alter November 30, 1963, column 16 refers only to VA-guaranteed loans. Column 16 is the initial gross yield posted by FNMA, on the Friday following the end ol the statement week, in is purchase program for adluslablerate home morigages having rte and payment adlustments once a year. FR 367(4/84) Security Dealer Positions Millions of dollars August 13. 17,005 8.839 Tresury bills 1.654 -11,307 Forward and Futures Positions I Teur¢y coupons under over fderal ye 1 year agency 14 1,516 -907 -95 -3.270 -8,001 17,554 11,086 14.861 11.263 8,272 -13,048 22 -109 140 2,639 6,344 6,976 8.093 9,285 10,275 10.361 13.138 -2,635 -1,861 -7,309 609 934 1.165 3,390 325 -831 10,255 9,451 11,568 14,242 15,302 15.449 10,815 9,658 4,627 1.083 953 811 667 -1.543 -2.626 1L,398 12,530 16.164 14,463 14,191 16.515 2,929 -7,091 -2.628 -32 -291 -595 -1.643 -1,754 -3.224 12.436* -1.879* -614* -427 -365 -647 -843 pi Net Period Cash Positions 2 Treasury coupons under over 1 yea 1 year Treasury Total bills 1983--High Low 20,858 -296 13.273 -3.461 1.579 -687 8,778 -3.148 federal agency 12,088 4,013 1984--High 19,053 5,047 6,765 -12.140 1,310 -843 2.477 -4,785 7.992 13,669 16,971 4,076 5,929 8,011 956 748 223 14.672 15,981 18,172 9.694 10,762 8.653 12,470 9.266 15,956 Apr. hay June July Low 1983--July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1984--Jan. Feb. Mar. 1984--June 6 13 20 27 19,053 18,627 15,970 14,023 -4,432 -1,350 -712 -4,085 July 4 11 18 25 13.554 10.660 11,822 12.582* -2.904 -4,368 -2,892 -10* Aug 1 8 15 22 29 14.043* 14.202* 10,466* 2,666* 4,489* ** private short-term -4.411 -9,564 -7,223 -10,402 -6 -3 -2 -1.282 -2.706 -2.613 -1.836 -3.634 -5,018 -8.673 -5.899 -9,132 -7,993 -5.549 -12 -2 -2 -1,667 -1,022 669 -5,909 -6,798 -6,331 -5,596 12,786 13,336 12,763 -10.846 -8,784 -1,027 -15 -38 -10 -116 23 1,045 -7.474 -8.192 -9,552 -5.829 -8,677 -6,239 16,649 16,852 16,003 13,063 12.525 14,475 2,106 5.489 2,204 -13 -10 -14 476 359 1.422 -9.406 -9,650 -9,934 -5,453 -2,237 -1,193 -3,275* 16,059* 14,755* -2.517* -86* 2,828* -9,678* -3,157* -2,207 -3,391 -3,419 -2,832 17,285 16.547 15.714 14,995 14,147 14,318 14,861 14,307 6,029 4.987 -149 -604 -37 -41 -2 -8 1,033 1.088 364 2,272 -10,257 -10,402 -9,862 -9.183 -2,082 -2.766 -178 5 -1,038 -669 -553 -663* -5,451 -3.023 -3,625 -3,862* 15.961 16.887 16.227 15,157* 14.868 15,236 15,101 13,933* 596 -2,326 -2,664 -3.280* 42 -10 -96 -144* 3,265 2,391 2.477 3.031* -10.470 -10.576 -9,873 -8,661* -1.315 -2,877 -2,280 -2,921* -264* 18* -95* -1,342* 15.997* 14,669* -3,137* -147* 3,432* -9,071* -6,096* -2,690* 222* 17.418* 15.587* 15,524* 15,466* -2,505* -8491* -174* -225* 2,765* 1,992* -9,861* -8,223* I mitments to buy (sll)securities on an outright basis for Immediate delivery (5 business days or less), and certain "when-issued" securities for delayed delivery (more than 5 business days). Futures and forward positions include all other commitments involving delayed delivery; futures contracts are arranged on organized exchanges. 1. Cash plus forward plus futures positions in Treasury, federal agency, and private short-term securities. 2. Adjusted for reverses to maturity and related transactions. * Strictly confidential. L,-,. than $500,000. private short.lrm ' 2,272 -933 NOTE: Government securities dealer cash positions consist of securities already delivered, com- ** 1984 5 -9.819 -5,090 -5,445 -7,354 -8,959* -10,256* - STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC Net Changes in System Holdings of Securities 1 Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted Treasury bills 2 Period Treasury coupons net purchases change wthin 6,243 -3,052 5.337 5,698 13,068 603 912 294 312 484 5,116 4,617 4.738 3 5-10 over 10 3.456 2,138 1.702 1,794 1.896 523 703 393 388 890 173 156 155 595 481 820 -1,168 491 198 Feb. Mar. -1,060 3,159 - Apr. May June 3,283 -3,593 801 198 - 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983--QTR. II III IV 1984--QTR. I II July 1984--MAY Net change outrght Net RP 1-5 5-10 over 10 total 454 811 379 307 383 5,035 4,564 2,768 2,803 3,653 131 217 133 - 317 298 360 --- 5 29 --- -24 -- 454 668 494 --- 10,290 2,035 8,491 8,312 16,342 -2.597 2,462 684 1.461 -5,445 326 215 349 108 124 151 1,203 975 1.474 - --- ---- --- -- 6.208 5,439 6,120 -793 9,412 -10,739 808 -300 200 277 -300 1,484 - - --- - -- -1,555 1,918 -286 70 -- -- --- --- -- - - -- -1,098 3,149 -8,347 6,807 808 - 200 -- 277 --- 1,484 -- -- --- --- -- --- 4,764 -3,633 786 7,286 -3,643 -3,572 - - - - - - -- -- -- -- -1,499 -656 - ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ---- ---- -- 278 -1,214 -2,020 -959 385 4,978 -5,962 -5,689 2,691 2,163 - - --- --- --- --- - - - --- 483 456 -1,402 386 - -- - 278 -1,214 -1,980 -959 385 6 13 497 458 20 -- -- - 27 72 - - - 4 11 18 25 --- --- --- -- -- -152 - AUG. 1 8 15 -1,346 -1,194 -272 - LEVEL--Aug. 16 67.4 17.7 JULY 4 with 1-5 2 9 16 23 30 JUNE Federal agencies net purchases total 1-year -1,497 August 20, 1984 -- --- 1-year hns - -- -- -- -- -- - -- -- -- -- - - 72 --- --- -- --- -- -- -- - -1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- - - -- -- - - -- -- -- --- ---- ---- -- ---- - --- --- - 34.0 14.8 2.4 4.3 1.3 19.4 85.9 .4 5,938 -6,737 -152 904 1.978 8 -5,477 -- -1351 -1,194 -272 2,530 502 -5,699 8.5 161.8 -2.9 5 In addition to the net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' 1 Change from end-of-period to end-of-penod. acceptances, direct Treasury borrowing from the System and redemptions (-) of agency and Trea2 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions, sury coupon issues. 3 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in ex8 Includes changes in RPs (+), matched sale-purchase transactions (-), and matched purchase-sale change for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon transactions (+). issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. 4 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. FR 1368 (7181)

Cite this document

APA

Federal Reserve (1984, August 20). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19840821

BibTeX

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19840821,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1984},
  month = {Aug},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19840821},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}