Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. 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Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. May 18, 1984 Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) May 18, 1984 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Recent developments (1) The average level of M1 was the same in April as it was in March, but data thus far available for the first part of May show a considerable pick-up, bringing the increase since March roughly in line with the 6-1/2 percent annual rate growth path sought by the Committee for the March to June period. The failure of M1 to expand in April probably re- flected in part the inability of seasonal adjustment factors so far fully to catch up with the effects on money holdings around the mid-April tax date of recent shifts to alternative payment instruments and expanded flows into IRAs. The slowing in M1 in April was concentrated in its other checkable deposits component; growth in currency and demand deposits was at about a 6-1/4 percent annual rate. (2) Despite the weakness in M1, expansion in M2 strengthened to a 7-1/4 percent rate in April, only slightly below the 8 percent rate specified by the Committee for March to June, as growth in the nontransactions component of this aggregate accelerated markedly from its unusually slow March pace. Growth of M2 appears to be strengthening somewhat further this month. (3) While M1 and M2 thus far appear to be running at rates close to the Committee's short-run paths, M3 is expanding at a pace well above its 8-1/2 percent March-to-June growth path. M3 accelerated to a 10-3/4 percent rate in April, and there appears to have been little, if any, slowing from this pace thus far in May. The non-M2 components of -2- KEY MONETARY POLICY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth) QIV to Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Apr. 6.6 5.0 0.0 5.4 8.4 3.7 7.2 6.6 10.4 9.0 10.8 9.5 13.0 13.3 10.3 15.0 13.1 9.9 24.6 -9.0 2.7 Money and Credit Aggregates 10.7 Domestic nonfinancial debt1 Reserve Measures 2 Nonborrowed reserves 3 19.0 Total reserves Monetary base -11.0 12.8 10.5 1st Half May Memo: (millions of dollars) Adjustment and seasonal borrowing 712 1190 Excess reserves 613 492 2702 4/ 1. Growth rates of domestic nonfinancial debt are measured on an end-ofperiod basis. 2. Growth rates of reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities resulting from phased changes in reserve ratios under the Monetary Control Act. 3. Includes "other extended credit" from the Federal Reserve. 4. Reflects about $3.8 billion of borrowing per day since May 10 related to a special situation. Apart from this borrowing the average for the first half of May would be $928 million. -3this aggregate have expanded quite rapidly, as both banks and thrifts continued to rely heavily on large time deposits and term RPs to fund credit extensions. (3) The growth of domestic nonfinancial debt is estimated to have accelerated in April to a 15 percent annual rate (preliminary estimate) from the 12-1/4 percent pace of the first quarter. The pick-up was attributable entirely to a faster pace of borrowing by the federal government. Borrowing by the nonfederal sector also was rapid--at 11-1/2 per- cent--with merger finance contributing very little to this expansion. Business firms stepped up bond offerings in April as expectations of near-term declines in bond rates apparently dissipated, but stock issuance slid further with the weakness in stock prices. Although business borrow- ing from banks slowed sharply in April, commercial paper issuance picked up further. In the household sector, growth in consumer credit was at a 17 percent annual rate in the first quarter and seems to have remained generally strong in April; mortgage borrowing also appears to have remained vigorous. (4) The level of total reserves showed little net change in April, as a further decline in excess reserves offset continuing increases in required reserves. With total reserves flat and borrowing rising on average by about $265 million from March to April, nonborrowed reserves declined at a 9 percent annual rate in April. In the three complete reserve maintenance periods since the March FOMC meeting, adjustment plus seasonal borrowing averaged just under $1.2 billion, declining from almost $1.3 billion immediately following the meeting to $1 billion in -4- the most recent two-week period. Borrowing at the discount window thus far in the current two-week statement period has increased considerably because of advances to one large bank as a result of large deposit drains caused by market uncertainties about the bank's underlying condition. Credit advanced to this institution averaged about $3.8 billion through the first eight days of the period, while adjustment and seasonal credit to other institutions averaged around $850 million. The provision of nonborrowed reserves has been reduced to offset reserves being provided through this exceptional borrowing. (5) The federal funds rate has risen from an average of around 10 percent in the weeks just preceding the March FOMC meeting to about 10-1/2 percent recently, reflecting in part a 1/2 point rise in the discount rate to 9 percent in the first week of April. Most other interest rates have increased even more sharply since the last FOMC meeting, as market participants have reacted with mounting concern to the strength of economic activity and private credit demands and the lack of progress in reducing federal deficits. Widely publicized losses by an insurance broker, the failure of a small government securities dealer, persistent rumors that a major bank was in serious financial difficulty, and various statements by high officials also contributed to a somewhat heightened sense of anxiety and unusually volatile conditions in credit markets, particularly during the period surrounding the Treasury's large mid-quarter refunding. In general, market interest rates--both short- and long-term-- have risen 1/2 to 1-1/4 percentage points over the intermeeting period. The commercial bank prime rate was boosted twice, by a total of one percentage point, to 12-1/2 percent. Treasury bill yields have advanced by less than private short-term market yields, reflecting concerns about -5credit quality, as well as a substantial temporary reduction in the outstanding amount of bills because of the debt ceiling constraint. The spread of CD over Treasury bill rates (3 month bill at an investment yield) rose from about 5/8 of a percentage point in late April and early May to a high of near 1-1/2 points a few days ago, before declining prior to the announcement by bank regulatory agencies of a comprehensive financial assistance program for Continental Illinois Bank. There was little initial reaction in markets to that announcement, and the current spread appears to be around 1 to 1-1/4 percentage points. (6) The dollar has appreciated relatively steadily over most of the period since the last FOMC meeting, to a level currently just one percent below its peak for the floating rate period, reached in January. On a weighted-average basis, the dollar has risen 5-1/4 percent since the March FOMC. An increase in dollar interest rates relative to foreign rates--together with industrial unrest in Europe, especially Germany, and conflict in the Persian Gulf--apparently have contributed to the dollar's rise. -6Prospective developments (7) The upper panel of the table below shows alternative specifications for the monetary aggregates for the March-to-June period, along with the specifications for this period chosen by the Committee at its March meeting. Differences among the alternatives are fairly small, given the relatively short time remaining in the second quarter following the meeting; somewhat greater contrast can be seen in the lower panel, which gives the implied growth from April to June for each alternative and for attainment of the Committee's current short-run paths, given actual growth in April. The middle panel of the table shows associated federal funds rate ranges. charts and table (More detailed data can be found on the on the following pages.) Alt. A Growth from March to June M1 Alt. B Alt. C Memo: Adopted in March 7 6-1/2 6 6-1/2 M2 8-1/4 8 7-3/4 8 M3 10-1/4 10 9-3/4 8-1/2 8 to 12 7-1/2 to 11-1/2 9 8 9 9-1/2 8-1/2 7-1/4 Federal funds rate ranges 7 to 11 7-1/2 to 11-1/2 Implied growth from April to June 10-1/4 8-3/4 10 Ml M2 M3 (8) 9-1/2 8-1/2 9-1/2 The specifications of alternative B, which are expected to be consistent with little, if any, change from the current degree of pressure on bank reserve positions, call for growth in M1 and M2 at rates chosen by the Committee in March. With regard to M1, this implies a substantial rebound in growth during May and June, partly as seasonal Chart1 Actual and Targeted M1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC Billions of dollars -ACTUAL LEVELS * SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES 1983 1984 Chart 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC Actual and Targeted M2 Billions of dollars Z.%VU - 9% - ACTUAL LEVELS 2380 * SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES 2360 2340 2320 2300 2280 2260 2240 2220 2200 2180 I I I 1 I 0 N 1983 D J F M A M 1 J I 1 J 1984 I A I S 2160 O N D Chart 3 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC Actual and Targeted M3 2940 -ACTUAL LEVELS /*9% * SHORT RUN ALTERNATIVES / / 2920 2900 / 2880 6 ^' ?,/ 2820 2800 2780 2760 O N 1983 D J A J J 1984 A S O N D Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M3 M2 M1 ----------------------------------- ------------------------ -----------------------Alt. C Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. A Alt. C Alt. B Alt. A 530.0 532.9 535.1 530.0 532.9 535.1 530.0 532.9 535.1 2206.6 2222.0 2228.8 2206.6 2222.0 2228.8 2206.6 2222.0 2228.8 2721.7 2745.2 2765.7 2721.7 2745.2 2765.7 2721.7 2745.2 2765.7 535.1 540.7 544.3 535.1 540.7 543.7 535.1 540.7 543.0 2242.1 2259.2 2275.0 2242.1 2259.2 2273.4 2242.1 2259.2 2271.8 2790.6 2815.3 2836.9 2790.6 2815.3 2834.8 2790.6 2815.3 2832.8 10.7 6.6 5.0 10.7 6.6 5.0 10.7 6.6 5.0 5.7 8.4 3.7 5.7 8.4 3.7 5.7 8.4 3.7 6.7 10.4 9.0 6.7 10.4 9.0 6.7 10.4 9.0 0.0 12.6 8.0 0.0 12.6 6.7 0.0 12.6 5.1 7.2 9.2 8.4 7.2 9.2 7.5 7.2 9.2 6.7 10.8 10.6 9.2 10.8 10.6 8.3 10.8 10.6 7.5 6.9 10.3 6.4 9.6 5.9 8.9 8.3 8.8 8.0 8.4 7.7 7.9 10.3 10.0 10.0 9.5 9.7 9.1 1983--1 02 03 Q4 12.8 11.6 9.5 4.8 12.8 11.6 9.5 4.8 12.8 11.6 9.5 4.8 20.5 10.6 6.9 8.5 20.5 10.6 6.9 8.5 20.5 10.6 6.9 8.5 10.8 9.3 ,.4 9.9 10.8 9.3 7.4 9.9 10.8 9.3 7.4 9.9 1984--01 02 7.2 5.5 7.2 5.3 7.2 5.2 6.8 7.2 6.8 7.0 6.8 7.0 8.9 10.2 8.9 10.1 8.9 10.0 '83 Q4 to June '84 6.9 6.7 6.5 7.3 7.2 7.1 9.8 9.6 --- 9.5 --- 1984--January February March April May June Growth Rates Monthly 1984--January February larch April May June 1984 March to June 1984 April to June Growth Rates Quarterly Average , J -8factor "errors" average out, but more basically reflecting underlying demands for cash balances over the quarter as a whole from growth of income and spending. M2 appears to be in process of expanding in somewhat closer alignment to growth of income, following the unusual increases in velocity in the second half of the last year and in the first quarter. M2 velocity would still be expected to increase during the second quarter, but at about a 2 percent annual rate, a slower pace than it averaged over the previous three quarters. On the other hand, M1 velocity would be expected again to increase relatively rapidly-at around a 3-3/4 percent annual rate in the second quarter, given the staff's GNP projection. This outlook for velocity of M1 and M2 assumes that there is no significant increase in precautionary demands for liquidity from uncertainties about the economic and financial outlook that might conceivably arise from the recent problems in financial markets. (9) In contrast to behavior of M1 and M2, M3 over May and June can be expected to grow above the Committee's short-run path and also to remain above its longer-run range. Depository institutions are likely to seek substantial amounts of funds through managed liabilities. However, the rate of increase in these borrowings is expected to diminish, partly as credit demands on institutions, though remaining generally strong, moderate a bit from the first quarter pace. Moreover, if the current sizable spread of CD rates over bill rates is sustained over the next several weeks, M3 growth might be held down as depository institutions shied away from CD issuance and became more cautious lenders--unless they were readily able to attract an enlarged volume of retail deposits. -9- (10) Total debt of nonfinancial sectors is projected to increase in May and June at rates above the upper end of the Committee's range, bringing growth for the first half of the year to around 12-1/2 percent at an annual rate. The federal government will remain a relatively heavy borrower in May and June, and growth in the debt of non-federal sectors is expected to continue brisk. Business credit demands will be strengthening as the growth of internal funds fails to match the rise in investment spending. The increase in household indebtedness--though still quite substantial--is projected to moderate a bit as rising interest rates damp demands for mortgage and consumer credit. (11) The specifications of alternative B are expected to be consistent with borrowing from the discount window continuing at about $1 billion (apart from any special borrowing related to the Continental situation), and with growth in nonborrowed and total reserves at annual rates of 8-1/2 and 5 percent, respectively, over May and June. This would likely be associated with a federal funds rate averaging 10-1/2 percent. Federal funds may continue to trade in a fairly wide range around this level, reflecting in part the greater scope for expectational and other influences in the two-week maintenance period. In addition, banks might manage their reserve positions more cautiously (holding more excess reserves or seeking to conserve borrowing access at the discount window) should the banking environment become uncertain in the aftermath of the Continental package, thereby placing upward pressure on the funds rate unless compensating adjustments are made to reserve paths. -10- (12) Interest rates generally may well continue to fluctuate around current levels under alternative B, but credit markets are in a highly sensitive state. The behavior of quality spreads will depend in part on the extent to which concerns about banks are allayed by the Continental package. Long-term interest rates have been extremely volatile recently, and they will no doubt continue to be sensitive to incoming economic data, statements by officials, and the outlook for the budget. Nonetheless, the severity of the decline in bond prices in recent weeks suggests that this market--where yields have risen as much or more than short-term rates--could have overadjusted, and, if short rates do not rise further, some decline in long-term rates could develop. However, even if bond rates fell, mortgage rates probably would continue to move higher in lagged response to previous increases in market interest rates and to emerging earnings pressures on thrift lenders. (13) The specifications of alternative A contemplate some easing of pressures on bank reserve positions over the coming intermeeting period consistent with somewhat faster growth of the aggregates than under alternative B. M1 and M2 would be expected to grow a little faster than the pace chosen by the Committee in March. Borrowing might fall to around $600 to $750 million and the federal funds rate drop to an average of around 9-3/4 to 10 percent under this alternative. Nonborrowed reserves would be expected to increase at around a 15 percent annual rate. (14) A considerable near-term rally would probably develop in financial markets in response to the easing of money market conditions. The Treasury bill rate would be likely to drop into the 9-1/4 to 9-1/2 -11percent area, and bond yields would also move downward. The size of the decline in long rates might well be limited by larger corporate bond offerings and by expectations that the lower level of money market rates could not be sustained with economic activity still expanding rapidly and credit growth strong relative to the Federal Reserve's range. M1 would be in the middle of the upper half of its range by June under this alternative, but demand for this, and other, aggregates would be boosted in the third quarter by the lower level of short-term interest rates that developed as well as by a perhaps somewhat more robust expansion of economic activity than now implied in the staff forecasts. Thus, alternative A increases the odds that renewed tightening of money market conditions might be necessary later in the year if the Committee wishes to hold M1 and M2 close to the midpoints of their ranges and M3 and credit to near the upper ends of their ranges. (15) Alternative C involves restraining growth of M1 and M2 to rates below current FOMC short-run objectives and sets in train forces that would work to bring M3 and credit growth back toward their longerrun ranges. Discount window borrowing might rise toward $1-1/2 billion under alternative C, which probably would be associated with federal funds trading consistently somewhat above 11 percent. Nonborrowed reserves would be expected to contract slightly on average in May and June. (16) Interest rates might well rise substantially further under this alternative, especially in an environment in which markets were still particularly sensitive to problems of the banking system. Private rates might rise distinctly more than Treasury rates, as quality concerns intensify, reflecting at least in part greater worries about -12the willingness of developing countries to service their debt. CD rates could rise another percentage point or so, exerting similar upward pressure on the prime rate. Although the higher interest rates would have only small effects on money growth in the current quarter, such a rise would tend to hold down growth in money, credit, and income over the summer, thus tending to raise the odds on a decline of interest rates later this year. The dollar would probably rise considerably further in the near term on exchange markets as interest rates rose, though it could be expected to decline later in response to fundamental balance of payments forces. -13- Directive language (17) Proposed language for the operational paragraph of the directive is shown below. The bracketed phrase referring to "unusual financial strains" is suggested should the Committee wish to give explicit recognition, in the aftermath of the Continental package and recent market turbulence, to the possibility that operations may need to be modified, at least temporarily, in face of unusual financial developments. In the short run, [WHILE TAKING ACCOUNT OF ANY UNUSUAL FINANCIAL STRAINS,] the Committee seeks to /maintain [EXISTING / INCREASE SOMEWHAT/DECREASE SOMEWHAT/ pressures on bank reserve positions, [DEL: judged to be] consistent with growth in M1, M2, and M3 at annual rates of around [DEL: 6-1/2] ____, [DEL: 8] ____, and [DEL: 8-1/2] ____ percent, respectively, during the period from March to June. Greater reserve restraint would be acceptable in the event of more substantial growth of the monetary aggregates, while somewhat lesser restraint might be acceptable if growth of the monetary aggregates slowed significantly; in either case, such a change would be considered in the context of appraisals of the continuing strength of the business expansion, inflationary pressures, and the rate of credit growth. The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently 7-1//2 to 11-1/2] ____ TO ____ percent. outside a range of [DEL: Selected Interest Rates Percent I Short-Term Trwry b eaprimem n h nd kma POW May I- SItWh 3 _____1 CDo e miondery H m 1SnOnMft 1r Snanth 4 8 21, 1984 LongtTrm comm. 1 n market o bank piNnA mutual f fund o n m 8 7 U.8. govnmment conmt maturDiy yids corporate A utility muni. cipal conn- to recently offered B d Byr luyer lionll at SLe 8 10 11 12 13 14 honme mog V FHA 18 NMA lyu ARM 16 10.21 8.42 9.49 7.63 9.64 7.72 9.79 7.82 9.93 8.15 9.85 8.02 8.79 7.71 11.50 10.50 11.57 9.40 12.14 10.18 12.11 10.32 13.42 11.64 10.56 9.21 13.89 12.55 13.50 11.50 12.53 10.49 10.70 9.41 9.94 Low 6.84 10.27 8.94 10.55 9.01 11.39 9.35 10.66 9.16 9.58 8.70 12.50 11.00 12.73 10.87 13.44 11.62 13.48 11.69 14.05 12.83 10.82 9.86 13.63 13.19 13.50 12.50 13.00 11.25 193-aer. 8.77 8.35 8.37 8.36 8.69 86.36 7.77 10.50 9.84 10.51 10.63 12.47 9.78 12.80 12.00 10.71 7.96 7.83 6.01 10.50 10.50 10.50 9.76 9.66 10.32 10.40 10.38 10.85 10.48 10.53 10.93 12.04 11.92 12.40 9.40 9.56 10.07 12.78 12.63 12.87 12.00 11.63 11.88 11.04 10.68 11.36 193--igh Low 194-Uigh Apr. May June 8.80 6.63 8.96 8.21 8.19 8.79 8.30 8.22 8.89 8.29 8.23 8.87 8.63 8.49 9.20 8.56 8.36 8.97 July Aug. Sept. 9.37 9.56 9.45 9.08 9.34 9.00 9.26 9.51 9.15 9.34 9.60 9.27 9.50 9.77 9.39 9.15 9.41 9.19 8.34 8.69 8.77 10.50 10.89 11.00 10.90 11.30 11.07 11.38 11.85 11.65 11.40 11.82 11.63 12.79 13.16 12.98 10.06 10.25 10.20 13.42 13.81 13.73 12.30 13.38 13.00 11.93 12.16 11.86 Oct. 9.48 9.34 9.47 6.64 8.76 9.00 8.83 8.93 9.17 8.98 9.08 9.24 9.18 9.36 9.69 9.03 9.10 9.56 8.67 8.55 8.69 11.00 11.00 11.00 10.87 10.96 11.13 11.54 11.69 11.83 11.58 11.75 11.88 12.89 13.14 13.29 10.14 10.22 10.40 13.54 13.44 13.42 13.00 12.50 12.50 11.40 11.40 11.56 Mar. 9.56 9.59 9.91 8.90 9.09 9.52 9.02 9.18 9.66 9.07 9.20 9.67 9.42 9.54 10.08 9.23 9.33 9.81 8.80 8.72 8.91 11.00 11.00 11.21 10.93 11.05 11.59 11.67 11.84 12.32 11.75 11.95 12.38 12.99 13.05 13.63 10.03 10.00 10.37 13.37 13.23 13.39 12.50 12.50 12.70 11.45 11.38 11.91 Apr. 10.29 9.69 9.84 9.95 10.41 10.17 n.8. 11.93 11.98 12.63 12.65 13.96p 10.26 13.65 13.00 12.30 11.00 11.00 11.21 11.50 11.28 11.50 11.66 11.82 12.09 12.27 12.40 12.46 12.18 12.36 12.48 12.49 13.55 13.60 13.81 13.80 10.41 10.41 10.39 10.28 13.30 13.37 13.48 13.55 12.50 12.50 13.00 13.00 11.70 11.80 12.10 12.25 12.56 12.53 12.57 12.75 12.56 12.54 12.60 12.77 13.86 13.87 14.05 14.18 10.36 10.25 10.21 10.23 13.63 13.58 13.67 13.73 13.00 13.00, 13.00 13.00 12.25 12.30 12.25 12.40 14.40 14.77 14.87 10.34 10.61 10.82 13.78 13.87 14.04 13.00 13.50 13.50 12.45 12.70 13.00 No. 1984-Jea. leb. WMr. Apr. 14 21 28 9.74 9.79 10.04 9.97 9.22 9.37 9.65 9.76 9.36 9.54 9.76 9.89 9.39 9.55 9.78 9.90 9.75 9.96 10.16 10.37 9.46 9.67 9.90 10.11 8.78 8.84 8.94 9.03 4 10.41 9.73 9.66 9.74 9.67 9.89 9.83 9.84 9.79 9.92 9.85 9.93 9.99 10.36 10.39 10.35 10.49 10.07 10.18 10.12 10.24 9.15 9.25 9.29 11.50 12.00 12.00 9.36 12.00 11.91 11.88 11.91 12.07 10.52 9.67 9.90 9.94 9.68 10.22 10.27 10.08 10.37 10.55 10.52 10.85 11.39 10.24 10.34 10.66 9.35 9.40 9.58 12.00 12.14 12.50 12.16 12.45 12.73 12.79 13.08 13.44 12.83 13.11 13.48 III 10.58 17 9.92 18 9.00p 10.01 9.78 9.81 10.30 10.30 10.25 10.57 10.62 10.59 11.49 11.26 11.24 10.70 10.48 10.32 -- 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.79 12.83 2 1 .79p 13.46 13.54 13.44p 13.51 13.57 3 1 .48p 7 11 10.13 18 10.37 9.98 25 Nay 2 10.70 9 10.46 16 23 30 Dly-ay NOTE Wailr 8de for columns 1 though 1 are statem ent week erges. Data in column re taken from Oontoihue Monm Fund RIfot. Column 1and t 13 re 1I-dy quo tes Friday and Thursday. repectively, ol g It and of tht *tement week. Column 131Is the Bond B per revenue Index. Column 14 Iaon verwge of contrat nt t ratem on new commtlnmnts for conveWtlonul first mortgagM wli O0 percent loen-lO-vlue rtllo at a sample of savings and loan asacletlons on the Frldy following Ihe end of the statement week. After Novembr 30. 183. column 15 rfes only to VA-gumnted loans Column 18 Is the Inital gross yield posted by FNMA. on the Friday following the end of Ite statement week. In itr purchase program for dlutablerate home mortogage having rate and paymet adjustmenls once a yor. FR1367(44) Security Dealer Positions Millions of dollars May 21, 1984 C-h Poshions 2 o M d Total Tm er bills I T under- 1 yer y oupon over 1 yI r fedald agency privte short-term Tremuy bills I I Forward and utures Poeltlone Treaury coupons undr over lederel 1 yar I 1 y ar private ancy hort-trm 1983-Jan. Feb. Mar. 24,816 29.952 24.694 19.808 16.742 16.590 1.050 818 1.231 5.332 9.734 2.144 5.389 4.674 5.052 13.166 11.477 12.087 -7.782 -3.631 -1.734 -50 -70 -4 -2.766 -1.807 -2.357 -2.654 -2,099 -1.990 -6.677 -5.886 -6.325 Apr. May June 16.438 9.919 12,139 13.885 7.795 6.759 992 1.146 1,087 1.901 2.118 435 5.442 5.822 5,748 11.753 10.914 9.787 -7.705 -7.288 -914 -9 0 -23 -2.479 -2.636 -722 -1.482 -1.666 -1.595 -5.860 -6.286 -8,423 July Aug. Sept. 7.964 13,676 16.998 4.076 5.927 8.027 952 750 226 137 2.638 6.343 6.976 8.093 9.284 10.275 10.360 13.137 -2.635 -1.861 -7.302 -6 -3 -1.302 -2.706 22.613 -1.836 -3.623 -5.018 -8.673 -5.899 -5.084 Oct. Nov. Dec. 14,682 15.999 18.261 9,696 10.719 8.655 608 935 1163 3,391 324 -864 10.252 9.450 11.605 14.250 15.289 15.488 -9.132 -7.984 -5.539 -12 -2 -2 -1.662 -1,039 670 -5.911 -5.399 -7.317 -6.798 -6.294 -5.598 1984-Jan. Feb. ar. 12.508 9.137 16,402 10.797 9.465 4.539 1,080 956 801 657 -1.350 -2.632 11.403 12.585 15.883 12.737 13.308 12.740 -10.766151 -8.911 -716 -38 -9 -137 -1 1.055 -7,456 -8,064 -9.147 -5.792 -8.614 -6.131 -11.748 -13.289 -12.587 -7.331 -2,098 -74 -109 -34 -12 22 -121 -1,027 -26 602 566 -7.213 -7.966 -8,376 -8.096 -7.993 -6.210 -8,521 -9.525 -8.583 -8.341 376 838 1,477 1.881 -8,405 -9,068 -10.100 -9.126 -9.518 -7.260 -4.937 -3.726 - Apr. 194-ftb. 1 8 15 22 29 13,615 7.731 5.231 6,434 14.813 13.669 12.557 9.371 6.761 7.251 1,250 1.311 915 664 776 -178 -1.528 -723 -2.987 -1.114 11.361 12.488 13.286 12.394 12,489 12.877 13.816 12.930 13.022 13.256 Nar. 7 14 21 28 14.946 15.235 17.685 17.100 6.543 4.732 4.967 3.046 845 874 934 719 -1,154 -2.969 -4.531 -3.004 14.716 15,592 17.584 15.726 13.934 12,578 12.134 12,395 -2.382 -72 159 -793 -8 -10 -2 -16 Apt. 4 11 18 25 16.992 17.891 19.914 12.539* 2.908 3.582 6.460 1.328* 307 32 -132 -83* -1.396 -1.174 -1.598 -3,045* 15.271 17.317 16.813 16,252* 12.941 13.059 13.66: 12.151* -319 -489 -2,648 981* -13 -28 -8 -9* May 2 11.823* -2,797* -295* -1,125* 16,697* 13.047* 9 12.549* -7,649* 771* -284* -1,682* 17.009 14.118* 4.381* 16 23 30 15.984* -8.475* 16.823* 12.104* 6,517* -1* 186* NOE Govermment ecuritie dealer cash polltons conist of sncurttie aready dliered, com. mltmnts to buy (ell) securtiles on an outright best tmmiate or delivery (6 business dJayor le). and certain "when-eisued" securtlles for delayed delivery (mor than 5 business days). Futures and forward poaltione Include all other commntments Involving delayed delivery; future contracts are arrang- ed on organled exchange. 1. Cash plu (ofard plu futuMr postona In Treaury, fetdal agency, and private hortlrm secutrik. 2. Adjusted for reverses to maturity and related traneaction. *Strictly confidential. -3a -7* -15* 232 808 523 278* 2816 461 -22* -8.772 -9.951 -8.410 -9.218* -9.665* -10.394 -9.874* -4.269 -5.264 -4.747 -6.095* 588 -3 -1.259* STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FF) CLASS II-FOMC Net Changes in System Holdings of Securities 1 MAY21, Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted Treurr chln 1979 1980 1911 1982 1983 6.243 -3,052 5,337 5.698 13.068 192-qtr. IV 1983--tr. I II 1913-Sept. Oct. Dec. 194--Jes. Feb. 1984- Feb. .4292 -1,403 5.116 4.617 4.738 I-year 603 Trsury coupons net purcMhases over 10 510 15 I N e 5.035 4.564 2.768 2.803 3,653 10,290 2.035 4864 523 703 393 388 890 88 483 194 900 5,179 -20 173 156 153 593 481 820 326 213 349 1.203 975 1,474 -1.425 6.208 5.439 6.120 -3.325 -793 9.412 -10,739 108 124 151 8.491 8,312 16.342 -2.597 2.462 684 1.461 -5.445 7.737 302 2,125 3.693 -11.307 1.133 -565 -3,607 -1.098 500 -8.347 1 -8 is 15 22 29 -756 -1.044 7 14 21 292 566 349 155 820 - - 349 -300 - - 151 1.474 - -300 -300 - 23 344 - 34 106" 2 9 16 278 -1,214 -1,950 17 otl "309 733 3.693 321 632 1.937 IUL-NAT -yhr 2,466 mAP. 4 11 10 23 NAT l Nt change 'total 2,471 -3.267 -1.060 28 t total 3,436 2,138 1.702 1.794 1.896 912 294 312 - NMr. 4 Federal agencies net purchae over 10 510 1-5 1984 1.633 69.0 196 17.3 808 35.2 200 14.3 277 19.1 1.484 85.9 2.4 4.4 1.3 .4 8.5 -1.076 -1,044 -18 23 344 -876 -1.182 1.309 -8.400 292 556 349 8.141 1.779 -1,006 364 -5.662 1,633 319 2.136 1.937 3.724 -375 2.300 1.660 278 -1.214 -2,020 4.978 -35,962 -5.689 163.5 -441 -6.4 I I Cha frm a-of-wod to end-of-peod. 5 In addition to nthe pur chass of scurities, ai reflects chamges In System holdings of bankers' 2 Outright trancto in market and with feign accounts, and rdemptio (-) In bill auctions. accptnces, direct Treaury borrowing from the System and redemptions (-) of agency and Tre3 Outright tntlons in marke and with foreign aounts. nd short-ten notes acquired In exsury coupon issues. change fr maturing bll Excludes redemptio, maturity hifts, rollovers of maturing coupon Includes changes InRPs (+). matched sale-purchae transactions (-), and matched purchaeale I ria. tn direct Trnsy bonrowing from the System. trnmsctons (-).p 4 Ou tright tramtjom Inmarkt and wMth foren accounte o. Excludes redermprkn and mtufty shifts. 

Federal Reserve (1984, May 21). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19840522

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19840522,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1984},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19840522},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}