Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. August 19, 1983 Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC August 19, 1983 MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Recent developments (1) Growth of M2 and M3 slowed appreciably in July to annual rates of about 6-1/4 and 5 per cent respectively, well below their Juneto-September path rates of 8-1/2 and 8 per cent set at the last FOMC meeting. The slowing of growth in the broader aggregates last month reflected reduced reliance by banks on funds borrowed through managed liabilities-overnight RPs and Eurodollars, term RPs and large CDs-probably in response to the unusually large increase in the availability of funds from U.S. Government balances. ation in growth of the nontransaction This led to a substantial decelercomponent of the broad aggregates, even though growth of the total of savings and small time deposits (including MMDAs) slowed only marginally last month. The composition of inflows into that grouping shifted dramatically, however, as MMDAs were little changed on balance while small time deposits, mainly 6-month MMCs, surged with the recent rise in short-term market interest rates. By July, M2 stood at the center of its 7 to 10 per cent long-run growth cone and M3 was in the upper half of its longer-run range. (2) A more rapid growth of the broad aggregates is anticipated in August partly on the grounds that banks may borrow more aggressively in the market through managed liabilities to compensate for an expected drop in U.S. Government funds. Nonetheless, given the partial data avail- able through the first half of the month, growth rates of M2 and M3 may not be so strong in August as to bring these aggregates above the FOMC's short-term target path, and they, particularly M2, might remain below. -2- KEY MONETARY POLICY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth) Longer-run May 1983 June July base to July 1 Ml 26.3 10.2 8.9 12.2 M2 12.4 10.4 6.3 8.4 M3 11.0 11.0 5.1 9.1 Domestic nonfinancial debt 10.6 15.1 8.7 10.6 Bank credit 10.7 9.9 9.7 10.4 3.0 7.1 0.4 4.1 Total reserves -1.9 14.0 6.0 5.8 Monetary base 10.0 9.9 5.0 9.2 439 678 876 4 - 449 480 5114 - Money and Credit Aggregates Reserve Measures 2 Nonborrowed reserves 3 Memo: (Millions of dollars) Adjustment and seasonal borrowing Excess reserves 1. The base for Ml is QII '83, for M3 and reserves is OIV '82, for M2 is February-March 1983, and for bank credit and domestic nonfinancial debt is December '82. 2. Growth rates of reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities resulting from phased changes in reserve ratios under the Monetary Control Act. 3. Includes special borrowing and other extended credit from the Federal Reserve. 4. Thus far in August (through August 17) borrowing and excess reserves have averaged $993 and $409 million, respectively. (3) M1 decelerated a bit further in July, to about a 9 per cent annual rate-which was slightly below expectations for July thought at the time of the last meeting to be consistent with the 7 per cent growth rate specified for the June-to-September target period. early August suggest some further deceleration in growth. Data for Owing to rapid expansion in the latter half of the second quarter, the level of M1 in the first half of August remained above the upper limit of its 5 to 9 per cent monitoring range. (4) Borrowing by domestic nonfinancial sectors is estimated to have decelerated to about an 8-3/4 per cent annual rate in July from the 11-3/4 per cent second-quarter pace, largely reflecting reduced borrowing by the Federal Government. Although July growth in bank credit-at 9-3/4 per cent-was about unchanged from June, a further acceleration in lending offset a marked decline in acquisitions of Treasury securities. Lending to businesses strengthened to a 12 per cent annual rate, reflecting the curtailment in long-term bond issuance as long-term rates backed up further, and consumer lending accelerated to a 20 per cent rate as the bank share of this market evidently continued to grow. Thus far in August, data from large banks suggest that business loan demand may be moderating, but borrowing in the commercial paper market has picked up. (5) Growth in total reserves decelerated to a 6 per cent annual rate in July, reflecting a slowing in growth of required reserves against deposits in Ml. Growth in the monetary base also slowed markedly in July, as currency expansion dropped off considerably following many months of strong expansion. Nonborrowed reserves plus extended credit -4- were unchanged in July as adjustment plus seasonal borrowing rose. Over the intermeeting period, borrowing ran somewhat in excess of the Committee's $600 to $800 million assumed range, reflecting a tendency for borrowing to be strong early in the statement week and for excess reserves to run slightly higher than expected. Net borrowed reserves have averaged about $515 million over the intermeeting period, at the high end of expectations for the period implied in the Committee's discussion of operating targets at the last meeting. (6) Over the intermeeting period, the federal funds rate rose from around 9-1/4 per cent to the 9-1/2 to 9-5/8 per cent area, with trading in the first half of August mainly around the latter rate or a bit higher. This rise was accompanied by fairly marked increases in short- and particularly longer-term interest rates-which moved upward by about 40 and 80 basis points respectively from the time of the Committee meeting to peaks in the second week in August. Longer-term rates may have been influenced by heightened concerns about the conflict between federal and private credit demands in a strengthened economy--concerns that may have been manifested in the initial lukewarm investor reception of the record-size mid-August Treasury refunding. In recent days, both short- and long-term interest rates have declined from earlier peaks, reflecting slower than expected money growth, a more moderate retail sales figure than many anticipated, and a slight easing in pressures on the funds market. On balance, since the previous FOMC meeting, short-term rates have risen about 10 to 20 basis points and longer-term market rates about 20 to 25 basis points. points. Mortgage rates have risen about 60 basis -5- (7) The rise of U.S. interest rates, together with indications that rates abroad would not be lifted, apparently spurred strong demand for the dollar on foreign exchange markets in the first half of August, and at its peak the dollar had risen by about 4-1/2 per cent on a weighted average basis. intervention by the United Statesmarked the first U.S. intervention since October 1982. More recently, as interest rates in the U.S. have eased off, the dollar has dropped on exchange markets, by about 2-1/2 per cent from its peak. Prospective developments (8) The top panels of the table below show alternative specifications for the monetary aggregates over the June-to-September period, together with federal funds rate ranges for the upcoming intermeeting period; the bottom panel gives the implied growth rates for each alternative for the July-to-September period. the alternatives, (More detailed data for including their relationship to the longer-run ranges, are shown in the charts and table on the following pages. interest rate path consistent with the staff's The quarterly GNP projection is shown in Appendix I.) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 8-1/2 8-1/2 8 8 8 7-1/2 7-1/2 7-1/2 7 6 to 9-1/2 6 to 10 7 to 11 8-3/4 9-1/2 6-3/4 8-1/4 8-3/4 6 Growth from June to September M2 M3 M1 Federal funds rate range Implied July to September growth 9-1/4 10 7-1/2 M2 M3 M1 (9) The monetary aggregates of alternative B most nearly correspond to the specifications for the third quarter adopted at the last Committee meeting; they differ only by a slightly higher growth for M1 balanced by a slightly lower growth for M2, a change in relationship suggested by incoming data. Such growth rates are likely to be achieved without further significant change in money market conditions. Alternatives A and C would call for somewhat easier and tighter money CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class - FOMC 8/22/83 Actual and Targeted M2 M2 Billions of dollars 2220 -ACTUAL LEVEL © PROJECTION *SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES - 2180 2140 -- 2100 2060 2020 1980 1940 -- N ID 1982 J FII I M IA F M J I JI J J A 1983 J S O N D J 1900 1860 F 1984 M Chat 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class n - FOMC Actual and Targeted M3 M3 Billions of dollars 2650 - ACTUAL LEVEL ) PROJECTION * SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES 9'/ % A ,s - 2600 - 2550 - 2500 Sc 6%% 2450 - 2400 - 2350 2300 I N 1982 M J J 1983 A O N D J F 1984 Chart 3 Actual and Targeted M1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II FOMC 8 22 83 Billions of dollars 1550 SACTUAL LEVEL SPROJECTION SSHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES N D 1982 J F M A M J 1983 J A S O N D J F 1984 M Alternative Levels and Growth Rates For Key Monetary Aggregates Alt. A M2 Alt. B 1983-April May June 2074.7 2114.3 2074.7 2096.2 2114.3 July 2125.4 2140.8 2158.5 2125.4 2140.7 2156.3 2.8 12.4 2.8 12.4 10.4 2096.2 August September Alt. C Alt. A M3 Alt. B 2074.7 2096.2 2114.3 2454.0 2476.5 2499.3 2125.4 2140.5 2154.2 2510.0 2531.8 2551.8 M1 Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 2454.0 2476.5 2499.3 2454.0 496.5 507.4 511.7 496.5 2499.3 496.5 507.4 511.7 2510.0 2531.6 2549.5 2510.0 2531.3 2546.9 515.5 518.5 521.9 515.5 518.4 521.3 515.5 518.3 520.7 2476.5 507.3 511.7 Growth Rates Monthly 1983-April May June 10.4 2.8 12.4 10.4 3.4 11.0 11.0 3.4 11.0 11.0 3.4 11.0 11.0 -2.7 26.3 10.2 -2.7 26.3 10.2 -2.7 26.3 10.2 6.3 8.7 9.9 6.3 8.6 8.7 6.3 8.5 7.7 5.1 10.4 9.5 5.1 10.3 8.5 5.1 10.2 7.4 8.9 7.0 7.8 8.9 6.8 6.7 June-September July-September 8.4 9.3 8.0 8.7 7.5 8.1 8.4 10.0 8.0 9.4 7.6 8.8 8.0 7.4 7.5 6.8 September - December 8.8 8.0 7.3 8.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 6.0 20.3 10.1 20.3 20.3 10.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 12.2 12.2 8.7 8.3 8.8 7.4 10.2 8.2 8.5 7.5 12.2 8.9 9.1 10.2 8.2 8.8 8.9 10.2 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.3 8.6 8.2 9.3 July August September Growth Rates Quarterly Average 1983-01 02 03 04 8.2 8.7 8.2 7.7 6.3 4.9 9.3 8.4 7.6 Memo: Growth Rate Base period to 1983041 9.1 8.9 1. Base period is February-March 1983 average for M2, fourth quarter 1982 average for M3, and second quarter I983 RAvarmni for MI. -8market conditions respectively. Because the bulk of the third quarter is now behind, specified money growth rates over the June-to-September period do not differ greatly from alternative B, but the emerging difference in money market conditions would more significantly affect developments in the fourth quarter. (10) Under all the alternatives growth in M2 and M3 is expected to quicken in August and September from the July pace, largely for the reason noted in paragraph (2), though these aggregates are expected to remain within the FOMC's longer-run range. M1, on the other hand, is expected to grow more slowly in August and September than in July as the rise in market interest rates that has already occurred contributes to moderation in demands for this aggregate. (11) Under alternative B, the federal funds rate would be expected to trade around 9-1/2 per cent (the 6 to 10 per cent funds rate range shown for that alternative retains the specification of the current directive). Recent strength in demands at the discount window suggest that borrowing would range between $700 and $900 million. Total and nonborrowed reserves would be expected to show little change, on balance, over August and September-with a small decline in August offset by a rise in September. (12) Other short-term market interest rates, which have declined some in recent days partly as expectations of a further tightening in monetary policy abated, should remain around current levels. A little further drop in long-term rates could develop, however, particularly if stability in the funds rate is accompanied by additional evidence of less rapid economic expansion along with moderate money growth in or approaching the Committee's longer-term ranges. -9(13) The debt of nonfinancial sectors is expected to increase over the third quarter at a considerably slower pace than in the second. The moderation in growth reflects a sharp drop off of bond issuance by state and local governments and a slowing of borrowing by the Treasury, following the rapid build up of its cash balance in early summer. Even so, the federal government's demands on credit markets remain quite large, with its outstanding debt projected to increase at around a 16 per cent annual rate in the third quarter. Household borrowing is expected to continue close to the stronger pace of the second quarter. Net busi- ness needs for external finance are expected to remain relatively small, as the effects of a turn to inventory accumulation are about offset by strong growth of internal funds. (14) Looking into the fourth quarter, and assuming sane slight further tightening of money market conditions in the fall as well as reduced growth of nominal GNP in line with staff projections, the expansion of M1 may slow somewhat further. Growth in that aggregate for the year would then be in the upper half of the Committee's longer-run range-which would be consistent with a slight further pick-up in velocity growth during the fourth quarter from the about 1 to 1-1/2 per cent expansion that appears in store for the third quarter. Growth rates in M2 and M3 over the year 1983 are expected to be around the midpoint, and in the upper half, of their longer-run ranges respectively, assuming as noted above some slight further tightening of money markets in the fourth quarter and also a moderation of loan demands at banks and thrifts. (15) Alternative A contemplates some easing in money market conditions, with federal funds in an 8-1/2 to 9 per cent area and borrow- ing declining to the $400-$600 million range. Nonborrowed reserves would -10- be expected to expand at about a 6 per cent annual rate from July to September. Market interest rates would probably decline substantially in response to the unexpected easing of money markets, with the 3-month Treasury bill rate falling to the 8-1/2 per cent area. rally probably would develop in bond markets. A considerable With bond rates falling, business issuance of long-term obligations would burgeon once again, while borrowing from banks and in the commercial paper market receded. In foreign exchange markets, the dollar would tend to weaken, probably falling below levels prevailing around the time of the July FOMC meeting. (16) While growth in the monetary aggregates in the June-toSeptember period may be only a little stronger under alternative A than alternative B, the easing in bank reserve positions, if sustained through the fourth quarter, would involve a greater chance as the year progresses that M1 growth would accelerate, at least a bit, from what is currently expected to be a moderate August pace and tend to stay above its longer-run range. An acceleration could reflect both the reduced opportunity cost of holding NOW accounts as well as any greater than projected expansion in nominal GNP should an easing of interest rates lead, through a favorable impact on attitudes among other things, to greater consumer and business spending. Growth in M2 and M3 would tend to be somewhat higher for the year as money market conditions remain easier than under alternative B, but they are likely to remain within their longer-run ranges. (17) Alternative C contemplates a near-term tightening in money market conditions with a view to gaining greater assurance that all of the aggregates, including Ml, would end 1983 within their longerrun ranges. The federal funds rate under alternative C might trade in -11the 10 to 10-1/2 per cent range through the end of the quarter. Discount window borrowing would tend toward the area of $l-1/4 billion at the current 8-1/2 per cent discount rate, raising questions about the level of that rate. Assuming no discount rate change, nonborrowed reserves might decline at about a 6 per cent annual rate from July to September. (18) The size and speed of the tightening in money market conditions contemplated under alternative C is probably not currently anticipated in the market. As a result, interest rates in both short- and long-term markets would be likely to rise appreciably. Bond issuance by corporations and state and local governments is already quite low compared to earlier in the year, but it could drop off even more. In the mortgage market rates on conventional fixed rate mortgages would climb above 14 per cent, with pressure on these rates accentuated by effects of rising MMDA costs on the willingness of thrifts to extend mortgage loans. The dollar would come under considerable upward pressure on foreign ex- change markets, especially if foreign central banks continued to demonstrate a reluctance to raise their domestic interest rates. (19) Under alternative C, M2 and M3 growth over the June-to- September period might be somewhat below objectives specified at the last Committee meeting, though M1 growth may be close to its 7 per cent third-quarter objective. However, should the higher interest rates cause sizable shifts of saving funds out of NOW accounts into instruments bearing market-related interest rates, M1 growth could slow substantially in September and also into the fourth quarter. Growth in M2 and M3 would also tend to slow, though perhaps not as markedly as M1, in the fourth quarter. The probable dampening effect of these higher interest -12rates on growth in money and income as the year progresses suggests the likelihood that attaining longer-run money and credit targets for 1984 would involve a substantial easing of interest rates later this year or early next year from the alternative C levels. Directive Language Given below is a suggested operational paragraph for the directive, with the numerical specifications adopted at the meeting on July 12-13 shown in strike-through form. OPERATIONAL PARAGRAPH The Committee seeks in the short run to (increase slightly further MAINTAIN/DECREASED SLIGHTLY) the existing degree of reserve restraint. The action is expected to be associated with growth of M2 and M3 at annual rates of about [DEL: 8-1/2] ____ and 8 ____ per cent respectively from June to September, consistent with the targets established for these aggregates for the year. Depending on evidence about the strength of economic recovery and other factors bearing on the business and inflation outlook, lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of a significant shortfall in growth of the aggregates from current expectations, while somewhat greater restraint would be acceptable should the aggregates expand more rapidly. The Committee anticipates that a deceleration in M1 growth to an annual rate of around [DEL: 7]____per cent from June to September will be consistent with its thirdquarter objectives for the broader aggregates, and that expansion in total domestic nonfinancial debt would remain within the ranges established for the year. The Chairman may call for Comittee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of [DEL: 6 to 10] ____ TO ____ per cent. APPENDIX I Interest Rates Consistent with the Greenbook GNP Projection (Quarterly averages, in per cent) Federal Funds 1983--02 (actual) 03 04 8.80 1984-01 02 03 04 9-1/2 9-1/4 9 9-1/2 9-3/4 3-month Treasury Bill Recent Aaa Utility Fixed Rate Mortgage 8.40 9-3/8 9-1/2 11.55 12-1/2 12-1/2 12.76 13-5/8 13-7/8 9-1/8 8-3/4 8-1/2 8-1/2 12-1/4 12 11-3/4 11-3/4 13-5/8 13-1/4 13 13 Selected Interest Rates August 22, 1983 Percent Short-Term CD Trury blUe ueoond moy et moiPd un.1- lamti | - lia 2 3 U.S gowanmnwl onitnt .. rcokndtmr p m luld W rIm m a-t onth M 4 5 - -T 1-yMr I 1 money _ nd maturlty yitMl yr| "en a8 I 10-yer 8 t" OI wr Log.Term corpoae muni- Aa utility cipal Bond oflered bWuye S&L L 13 4 12 g1g 15.56 12.41 5.76 13.84 12.55 13.50 11.50 13.42 11.53 15.61 14.47 13.57 12.28 16.82 11.23 10.66 16.27 15.43 15.30 15.13 13.00 13.56 14.51 13.51 11.17 10.54 10.34 12.34 11.88 11.91 9.69 10.06 9.96 14.61 13.83 13.62 12.75 12.25 12.00 12.83 12.66 12.60 10.46 10.72 10.51 10.63 10.88 10.63 11.84 9.50 9.56 9.20 13.25 13.04 12.80 12.00 12.00 12.00 11.94 11.87 10.40 10.38 10.83 10.48 10.53 10.93 11.50 9.05 9.11 9.52 12.78 12.63 12.87 12.00 11.37 11.81 14.41 14.21 8.69 7.43 7.84 13.51 8.12 15.84 8.53 15.56 8.19 13.89 8.09 16.86 11.50 15.01 9.81 14.81 10.46 14.63 10.42 16.34 11.75 1983-iskh Low 10.21 8.42 9.49 7.63 9.64 7.72 9.79 7.82 9.93 8.15 9.53 1.02 8.57 7.71 11.50 10.50 11.57 9.40 12.14 10.18 12.11 10.32 12.95 11.03 1982-July 12.59 10.12 10.31 11.35 7.92 11.88 9.88 9.37 11.90 10.37 9.92 13.44 10.61 10.66 12.62 9.50 9.96 12.86 11.02 9.73 16.26 14.39 13.50 14.00 12.62 12.03 13.95 13.06 12.34 13.55 12.77 12.07 9.71 9.20 8.05 7.71 8.07 7.94 8.29 8.34 8.16 8.63 9.51 8.44 8.23 8.95 0.66 9.08 8.66 8.53 9.16 6.54 8.22 12.52 11.85 11.50 10.62 9.98 9.88 10.91 10.55 10.54 1983.--Jn. Feb. NW. 8.68 1.51 8.77 7.06 8.11 8.35 7.93 8.23 8.37 0.01 8.23 8.36 0.36 8.54 6.69 7.96 7.79 7.77 11.16 10.98 10.50 9.64 Apr. muay 8.80 8.63 3.93 8.21 8.19 8.79 3.30 8.22 8.89 8.29 8.23 8.87 6.63 3.19 8.30 1.56 8.58 10.50 10.50 10.10 9.14 9.91 9.84 9.76 9.66 10.32 9.37 9.08 9.26 193-Junt 1 IS 15 22 29 8.77 8.84 8.84 9.14 6.90 8.56 8.67 8.73 8.84 8.97 8.62 6.30 8.84 8.92 9.04 July 6 13 20 27 9.39 9.21 9.43 9.46 8.89 9.10 9.11 9.08 9.02 9.30 9.28 9.25 3 9.59 9.66 9.67 9.31 9.49 9.43 9.67 9.59 9.50p 9.49 9.30 9.31 Sept. Oct. July As. 10 17 24 31 Otily-Aug. 12 18 19 QMA """at 16.50 12.00 15.61 8.68 13.44 FHANA l 17.66 13.57 192-1igh LoW Aus. home__ mortgage co recently 12.09 11.74 9.25 9.85 3.49 8.36 9.20 8.97 7.9 7.83 8.01 9.34 9.30 9.15 1.e. 10.50 10.90 11.38 11.40 12.39 9.53 13.42 12.3 8.62 8.76 8.80 8.90 8.60 8.80 3.89 9.03 9.19 7.79 7.85 7.96 8.02 6.11 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.10 10.24 10.24 10.32 10.51 10.71 10.83 10.81 10.73 11.01 10.86 10.95 10.89 10.82 11.07 11.72 11.78 11.66 11.84 12.00 9.78 9.69 9.38 9.38 9.04 8.89 9.07 9.15 9.24 9.364 9.36 12.74 12.82 12.96 12.96 13.08 11.50 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 11.91 11.99 12.06 12.05 12.24 9.03 9.317 9.37 9.35 9.32 9.50 9.55 9.52 9.10 9.14 9.19 9.16 0.22 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.57 10.85 10.05 10.96 11.07 11.34 11.39 11.43 11.12 11.37 11.37 11.43 12.25 12.30 12.37 12.62 9.55 9.54 9.44 9.60 13.30 13.50 13.58 13.65 12.00 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.24 12.58 12.61 12.73 9.51 9.64 9.54 9.63 9.79 9.63 9.71 8.47 8.57 8.73 10.50 10.71 11.00 11.25 11.57 11.32 11.79 12.14 11.82 11.79 12.11 11.78 12.86 12.90r 12.68 9.74 9.65 9.70 13.73 13.86 9.389 9.32 9.53 9.54 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.13 13.42 12.96 9.66 9.41 9.43 9.78 9.44 9.48 9.98 9.71 9.71 9.58 9.40 9.39 - 11.00 11.00 11.49 11.10 11.96 11.70 11.89 11.68 1.00 11.16p t 9.93 8.24 6.36 8.44 - .?3p U.a. 11.60 12.00 12.06 11.72 12.09 11.73p nOT W" as laor nmIha m 1I Us11 arem etamemn wee amames. Dat in column arem lan siam 4um d lon msocimtm on # *Pdy Uesing Sh ndaeUr maweamenw wIeOMA n et aet to etosm on mono.aegad keurSe 6w irmmlelusrp. .e-mle I*1. Cllutn 1Fu2d t nd 1 ar 4Sy qumn r Fr Ft nd ,Thurdy yel emlew oum Do oghum ty te ISCt. loWitl *yt, h ml of the sI*atem welk. CAubm 14 llan average ctc lSett rat" pepey Iment 1year o pool a 30yeM FMA A migo «In2 cl trntglgl in e cp9 rite 0ae h poi n Monuemsme conaeilite il mmimhgsa l waim80 Apmlowigo4oeluh tlls mg iyii ibmpis ol below ImMumne' FUANA Ming. Net Changes in System Holdings of Securities 1 Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted Period Treasury bills net2 change 870 6,243 -3,052 5,337 5,698 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982--Qtr. I II III IV -1,403 5,116 1983--Jan. Feb. Mar. -2,883 222 1.259 Apr. May June 2.880 516 1.721 July 666 1 8 15 July Aug. LEVEL--Aug. 104 6 267 13 20 27 193 159 17 4,188 603 912 294 312 3,456 2,138 1,702 1,794 1,526 523 703 393 388 50 570 891 485 81 113 194 52 123 132 595 326 108 173 156 481 Federal agencies net purchases totithin I 1,063 454 811 379 307 5-10 1-5 over 10 total -1,774 -2,597 2,462 684 1,461 635 1,198 900 -4,371 6.208 1,295 5,179 -999 -5,375 7,855 -20 1,203 -1,425 6,208 -3,325 -793 -2,892 216 1,250 -6,127 2,971 -168 1,203 2,873 1.718 1,617 2,971 -3.041 -723 975 1,632 523 43 254 1,078 59 104 4,160 -4,144 -2,160 3.813 -3,245 267 1,158 159 :83 3.081 -969 3,689 -4,706 '86 942 560 736 -15 -837 2,768 2,803 70 124 83 86 942 560 13-7 17.6 83.3 I Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in ex- s Net RPa 8,724 10.290 2,035 8,491 8,312 5,035 4,564 481 32.8 Net change oultrgh holdi I 59 63.9 1983 I 7,962 - 215 w1-5 1-year 4 43 254 1,182 22 29 3 10 17 1,184 -4,329 5,585 150 4,292 1983--Qtr. I II 1983-June within 1-year Treasury coupons net purchasesS r 1 over 10 5-10 I I I August 22, change for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. A Outriaht transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity 2.8 4.4 1.1 .5 8.9 156.1 -2.2 5 In addition to the net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowing from the System and redemptions (-) of agency and Treesury coupon issues. 8 Includes changes in RPs (+), matched sale-purchase transactions (-), and matched purchase-ale transactions (+). Securty Dealer Positions Millions of dollars «TuaMe S Tomey et1 _Total 1982--Jgi I Tr - undr -t t11 1 cum Poshione ooupon Forwerd and Futures PoolUon Isinmy Coupons Pedeetl or l Oyew I 6,281 49.437 -18.698 II.156 -2,151 679 -747 6,169 1.005 l983--igh Lo 20.856 -348 13.273 6135 473 -687 -1,208 6,132 4.01) 1982-July Aug. Sept. 19.616 24.048 14.300 5.768 1,330 275 -583 -630 -534 4.029 4.256 2.365 Dec. 18.880 17,317 18.876 1,156 3,654 8.732 109 497 428 Feb. Nor. 13,041 16.604 15.934 10.534 9.546 8.732 7.775 7.600 3.679 Leo Oct. Avr. Nay June July Jun Aun. hortem -! , 16.213 6.758 Trasuy bprw lole blt1 under 1 yr 1 yr Isr agncy I-l- psrvte horn-ret -PM 7,674 -11,077 -687 -4.182 -326 -2.715 -6,455 15.658 8,839 200 -10,310 -330 -3.225 -1,008 -3.382 -5.249 -8,813 2,872 3,556 4,416 14.530 14.701 12.801 -1.403 6.243 3.161 -2.538 -2,794 -1,880 -1,286 -1.195 -1.507 -2.239 3.233 4.268 5.655 5.285 3.684 5.949 13.371 11.821 5.285 16,4.046 -5.519 -1,648 -3,218 -2,898 -2,404 -2.371 -2,443 -5.493 -4.468 -5.045 -232 -428 3 4,950 4.061 1,852 5.125 4.455 4.855 13.166 11.477 12.087 -7.782 -3,631 -1.734 -2,766 -1,807 -2.357 -2,654 -2.099 -1,988 -5.,886 -371 11 65 1.610 1.818 103 5.278 1.694 5.631 11.753 10.914 9.787 -7.513 -6,994 -906 -2,479 -2.628 -723 -1,476 -1.666 -1.593 -5.837 6.910* 10.271* -2,429* -1.566* -1.676* -8.707* 5.159 -2.922 -983 -332 -961 -1.059 -1.489 -935 -1.151 -490 -1.710 -1,712 -2.235 -1.600 -1.008 -7,439 -8,040 -8.269 -8,710 -8.81 7.108 1.955 1.461 853 -1.077 -4.618 -6,677 -6.325 -4,288 -8.421 414* 126* 615 4,420 5,527 2.767 1.897 46 146 25 7 54 -679 -293 -1,201 505 1,571 4.132 22 29 720 7.943 7.641 7.022 7,759 5.424 5.131 9.115 9,792 9.182 10.120 9.943 6 1) 20 27 5.143 4.827 2. 595* -2,375* 414 1,564 -455* 133 167 1086 95* -26 -1.380 -667* 1,674* 5.523 6.531 7,434* 7.440* 10.473 10.507 10.479* 10.003* -1.377 -1.237 -2,113* -4,032* -624 -1.891* -2,669* -749 -1.334 -l.611* -1.946* -8.699 -9.323 -9.810* -7.691* 3 10 17 24 31 -5.111* 11.813* 8.464* 228* 611* 762* 125* 201* -444* 760' 3,024e 1.221* 7.462* 8.419* 8.641* 10,141* 10.536* 10,060* -967* 1.568* -386* -2,641* -3.063 -2.922* -2.600-2.787* -4.0530 -4.590* -6.692* -3.591* 3.219* 1 8 15 July August 22, 1983 32* 5.559 NOTE: GovWnmnt ecurille deler csh position consist of swcuritis alredy delverd, corn mitmente to buy (**ll) aecurdtlo on on outriht bass for immnMedit delivery (5 businMes days or leg). and certain "whMn4eued" securitis lor delayed delvery (more than 6 businesu day). Future end for. ward position Include all ota commlltents Invollng delayed dlivary; uturle conlnrctsl ae rran- 1. Ca plus lo r te plu securtlonee. * Strictly confldenlal uie poitions In Tru, ederal anoiy, and piatle nhrt-srm -330 -545 

Federal Reserve (1983, August 22). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19830823

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19830823,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1983},
  month = {Aug},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19830823},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}