Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. March 25, Strictly Confidential (FR) 1983 Class I FOMC MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) March 25, 1983 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY POLICY ALTERNATIVES Recent developments (1) M2 grew at around a 24½ percent annual rate in February, but is estimated to have decelerated considerably to about an 11½ percent annual rate in March. To a degree, the reduced growth of M2 appears to reflect a slowing in funds shifted into money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) from sources outside M2.1/ In addition, however, growth of M2 appears to be "basically" slowing in March, as its nontransactions component, abstracting from shifts, seems to be decelerating markedly. (2) M3 grew at about a 13½ percent annual rate in February; its growth, too, is estimated to have slowed markedly in March--to about a 6½ percent annual rate. The level of M3 in March places it near the upper end of the FOMC's annual target range of 6½ to 9½ percent. Because depository institutions have responded to the strong net inflows into core deposits in part by running off large CDs, this aggregate has been much less affected by the introduction of the new instruments than M2. (3) M1 advanced at a record annual rate of just above 22 percent in February. Preliminary data indicate that growth in March remained strong--at about a 16 1/ percent annual rate--bringing this aggregate even The average weekly increase in MMDAs declined from $33 billion in January to $17 billion in February, and to $10 billion in the first half of March. About 15 percent of these funds are estimated to have been shifted from outside of M2 in February and March, down from roughly 20 percent in January. Such shifts likely boosted M2 growth in February by about 8 percentage points and may have boosted M2 growth in March by only about 3½ percentage points. -2KEY MONETARY POLICY AGGREGATES (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth) Mar.: 04 '82 to 01 '83 Q4 '82 to Mar. '83 22.2 16.6 14.1 15.3 29.8 24.3 11.5 19.9 19.1 12.2 13.6 6.7 9.8 9.7 Nonborrowed reserves 3 4.1 -12.5 5.6 3.6 2.6 Total reserves 1.9 -14.4 6.8 2.9 2.1 12.7 3.7 11.0 9.1 9.0 372 304 3995 546 425 4135 Jan. 1983 Feb. 9.8 Money and Credit Aggregates Reserve Measures 2 Monetary base Memo: (Millions of dollars) Adjustment borrowing 4 Excess reserves 1. Projected from partial data. 2. Growth rates of reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities resulting from phased changes in reserve ratios under the Monetary Control Act. 3. Includes special borrowing and other extended credit from the Federal Reserve. 4. Includes seasonal borrowing. 5. Through March 23. further above its 4 to 8 percent longer-term range. With shifts into super NOW accounts from outside of M1 in February and March estimated to be comparatively small and roughly offset by transfers of funds from M1 to MMDAs, the underlying strength in transactions deposits apparently continues to be considerable. In addition, M1 growth has been bolstered by unusually strong increases in currency throughout the first quarter. The large increase in M1 during the first quarter as a whole--14 percent at an annual rate on a quarter-over-quarter basis--appears to represent a continuation of the upward shift in M1 demand (given income and interest rates) that developed last year. In the first quarter, the velocity of M1 dropped by about 6 percent at an annual rate. (4) The debt of nonfinancial sectors is projected to have increased over the first quarter at a rate near the lower end of FOMC's 8-1/2 to 11-1/2 percent range, and somewhat below the pace of the fourth quarter. Private borrowing is estimated to have remained close to the reduced fourth-quarter pace; although funds raised in credit markets by the federal government declined a little, they continued to account for nearly half of the total of such borrowing. Bolstered by a sharp increase in inflows of funds as a result of aggressive offerings of MMDAs, depository institutions are estimated to have accounted for around 60 percent of net credit extended to domestic nonfinancial sectors in the first quarter, up from an average of a little over 30 percent in the last three years. Bank credit growth rose from 6-1/4 percent in the fourth quarter to around 10-1/2 percent in the first, and loans and investments at thrift institutions apparently have picked up as well. At banks, acquisition of Treasury securities is estimated to have accounted for about half of the increase in their assets. The greatly enlarged intermediation through depository institu- tions last quarter was accompanied by substantial disinvestment of money market mutual fund shares and a considerable slowing in direct acquisitions of credit market instruments by private domestic nonfinancial sectors. (5) Total and nonborrowed reserves declined at 14¼ and 12½ percent annual rates, respectively, in February after growing slowly in January. Preliminary data indicate a modest rebound in growth for these The declines in total and nonborrowed reserves since measures in March. December mainly reflect reductions in required reserves because of shifts out of savings and small time deposits into MMDAs and the runoff of large CDs. The monetary base has grown much more strongly than these reserve measures in each of the past three months, owing to the rapid growth in currency. The level of adjustment plus seasonal borrowing implied by the reserve paths was kept at $200 million throughout the intermeeting period. Actual borrowing, however, has averaged about $390 million per week, reflecting such influences as unexpectedly strong demands for excess reserves (apparently related at times to unusually slow responses by banks to reserve requirement reductions) and misses in projections of factors affecting reserves at the end of a statement week (caused at times by computer and wire transfer problems).1/ (6) While borrowing ran higher than anticipated, free reserves were generally positive, and the federal funds rate continued to fluctuate 1/ See appendix I for detailed data on weekly reserve paths. around the 8 percent discount rate over most of the intermeeting period, though trading was around 81/4 percent in the most recent statement week. After declining in the weeks immediately following the FOMC meeting, other short-term interest rates began rising in early March, reflecting concerns that sustained rapid growth of the monetary aggregates had, at a minimum, made a near-term discount rate cut much less likely. On balance, short-term rates have risen as much as 35 basis points since the February meeting. Long-term rates, on the other hand, have declined about 45 to 60 basis points over the intermeeting period, and stock prices have increased further, partly in response to continued moderation in inflation and favorable implications for the economy of the break in oil prices. (7) percent on a weighted The dollar has appreciated by about 1 1/2 average basis since the last Committee meeting. The dollar has declined by 3/4 percent against the mark as the latter currency benefited from a solid conservative party victory in the March general election, and has remained about unchanged against the yen. However, it has risen by about 5 percent against the French franc and a similar amount against the pound. . Short-term interest rates abroad declined somewhat, on average, reflecting cuts in German, Swiss, and Dutch official lending rates. Prospective developments Alternative short-run specifications of the monetary (8) aggregates for the March to June period are shown in the table below, along with federal funds rate ranges. (More detailed data for the alternatives are shown in the charts and table on the following pages. The quarterly interest rate path consistent with the staff's GNP projection is contained in Appendix II.) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Growth from March to June M2 10 9 8 M3 9 8 7 M1 7-1/2 6 4-1/2 6 to 10 7 to 11 Federal funds rate range (9) 5 to 9 The alternatives are designed so that M2 over the second quarter stays around or below the upper bound of the FOMC's 7 to 10 percent target range (based on February-March). M2 under alternative A would be just a bit above the upper end of the range by June, and would be down within the range under alternatives B and C, as shown in Chart 1. within, its Under all three alternatives M3 would be at the top of, or longer-run range, but M1, though its growth is diminish in the months ahead, would remain well above its June--as shown in Charts 2 and 3. expected to range by Chart 1 Actual and Targeted M2 CONROENAL F) CaMs FOMC Billions of dollars S2240 10% ACTUAL LEVEL* SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES 2180 7% 2140 2100 2060 2020 1980 1940 1900 1860 N D 1982 J F March 1983 lve IS proctd. M A M J J 1983 A S 0 N D J F 1984 M Chart 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II FOMC Actual and Targeted M3 Billions of dollars 12650 ACTUAL LEVEL* **.. SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES -- 2600 -- 2550 ---- 2500 -- 2450 -- 2400 -- 2350 6'/ % N D 1982 ,I , IJ J F * March 1983 level is projected. M ,A IM J I 1983 J I I I A S I I O N D I J I I F 1984 I 2300 M Chart 3 Actual and Targeted M1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II- FOMC M1 Billions of dollars 1550 ACTUAL LEVEL* *** SHORT-RUN ALTERNATIVES -- 530 510 I"""" N D 1982 I J I I I I I I F March 1983 level is projected. M A M J J 1983 I A O N D 490 -- 470 i I II S -- J F 1984 M Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates 1983--January February March April May June Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 2008.0 2048.6 2068.3 2008.0 2048.6 2068.3 2008.0 2048.6 2068.3 2401.9 2429.2 2442.8 2401.9 2429.2 2442.8 2401.9 2429.2 2442.8 482.1 491.0 497.8 482.1 491.0 497.8 482.1 491.0 497.8 2085.5 2103.7 2120.0 2083.8 2100.3 2114.9 2082.1 2096.9 2109.7 2460.8 2479.8 2497.0 2459.1 2476.4 2491.7 2457.4 2472.9 2486.4 500.1 504.0 507.1 499.5 502.8 505.3 498.9 501.5 503.4 29.8 24.3 12.2 13.6 13.6 11.5 11.5 12.2 13.6 6.7 12.2 24.3 9.8 22.2 16.6 9.8 22.2 16.6 Growth Rates Monthly 1983--January February March April May June Dec. to March March to June 29.8 24.3 11.5 29.8 10.0 10.5 9.3 9.0 9.5 8.3 8.0 8.5 7.3 22.2 10.0 22.2 9.0 8.7 7.0 6.7 6.7 9.8 22.2 16.6 8.8 9.3 8.3 8.0 8.4 7.4 7.1 7.6 6.6 5.5 9.4 7.4 4.1 7.9 6.0 22.2 8.0 11.0 8.9 11.0 8.0 11.0 7.1 16.4 7.5 16.4 16.4 6.0 4.5 8.7 7.0 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 12.5 9.5 10.5 3.2 6.1 13.1 10.5 3.2 6.1 13.1 10.5 9.5 8.6 8.5 12.5 9.5 9.8 9.0 9.8 8.4 9.8 7.9 14.1 10.9 14.1 14.1 Growth Rates Quarterly Average 1982--Q1 Q2 8.7 7.0 Q3 Q4 10.9 9.3 10.9 19.9 12.0 19.9 11.4 1983--Q1 Q2 9.3 10.9 9.3 19.9 10.7 12.5 9.8 3.2 6.1 13.1 9.0 (10) The staff expects a further slowing of M2 growth as the shifts to MMDAs from non-M2 assets moderate with the ebbing of the initial stock adjustment to the new accounts and with the decline in MMDA offering rates. We have assumed that M2 growth will be increased by about 1 percentage point or a little more over the the March to June interval because of such shifts. 1/ - M3, which had been considerably less distorted than M2 by new deposit instruments, is expected to expand at a pace only somewhat slower than in the first quarter; CDs are expected to stop running off, as depository institutions continue to finance moderate expansion in credit demands and also further build up holdings of U.S. Government securities, though at a slower pace than in the first quarter. (11) Partly because lagged effects of earlier market rate declines have dissipated, we expect broad money growth to slow over the months ahead (even abstracting from MMDA shifts). Nonetheless, judging from recent behavior, we would expect demand to be sufficiently strong so that an effort to bring M2 growth down to the pace of alternative C might be associated with rising interest rates. However, a deceleration to the pace of B or A might be accomplished with stable or declining rates. 1/ Specifically, the staff is expecting that weekly total MMDA inflows will slow from the about $10 billion average pace of recent weeks to about $5 billion early in the second quarter and less than $2 billion by late in the quarter. By the end of June, we anticipate a level of MMDAs of around $375 billion. For the March to June interval staff assume that only 10 to 15 percent of MMDA growth will reflect shifts from non-M2 assets. (12) More clearly than in the case of M2, M1 growth basically appears to be running strong (given income and interest rates). However, all the alternatives assume a considerable slowing in M1 expansion over the March to June period, as our models suggest. Even with the assumed slowing, the velocity of M1 in the second quarter would still decline, though by much less than in earlier quarters, rather than rise substantially as is typical of the early stages of a cyclical recovery. (13) The debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors in the second quarter is expected to grow at a 9 percent annual rate, remaining somewhat above the growth of GNP. Borrowing, seasonally adjusted, by both the federal government and by private sectors is projected to strengthen in the second quarter. The federal government will have to raise a sub- stantial volume of funds in credit markets in a quarter when seasonal tax inflows have frequently in the past allowed it to repay debt. The increase in household borrowing is expected to be concentrated in the mortgage area. In the business sector, with inventories no longer running off, borrowing needs also will rise. With the shift to MMDAs largely completed, the bank and thrift share of lending to nonfinancial sectors is expected to decline from the extraordinary level of the first quarter, but to remain above the average of the last few years. (14) Alternative B contemplates a federal funds rate fluctuating around the current 8-1/2 percent discount rate, assuming adjustment (including seasonal) borrowing at the discount window of around $200 million. and nonborrowed reserves can be expected to rise from March to June at annual rates of 6 and 7-1/2 percent, respectively, after declining on Total -10balance over the previous three-month period largely because of deposit mix changes related to introduction of MMDAs. The monetary base is expected to grow about as rapidly as in the first quarter. (15) Other short-term interest rates may decline moderately from current levels as the stability of the funds rate around the present discount rate and slowing of growth in the aggregates reduce fears of a near-term tightening of monetary policy. This also seems consistent with greatly reduced net issuance of Treasury bills in the second quarter, reflecting a seasonal reduction in cash needs. Longer-term interest rates might also decline, if favorable market expectations generated by slower money growth and incoming evidence of moderate economic activity overcome continuing supply pressures. Treasury coupon offerings are expected to remain about as large as in the first three months of 1983, and businesses also can be expected to offer a fairly large volume of intermediate- and long-term securities in an ongoing effort to improve balance sheet structures. (16) Alternative A, which calls for 10 percent M2 growth from March to June, would probably be associated with a drop in the federal funds rate to the 7 to 8 percent area. Adjustment borrowing of around $150 to $200 million would be consistent with such a funds rate range if the discount rate were cut to 8 percent. Or such a funds rate might emerge, or be approached, if borrowing were dropped to the $50-100 million range at the current discount rate. (17) Short-term interest rates may decline considerably under alternative A, as market fears of any near-term tightening are allayed and current dealer financing costs drop along with the funds rate. The -113-month bill rates might trade around 7½ percent, and the generally lower short-term rates would lead to a further decline in the bank prime rate. Longer-term rates may also decline, but the declines may be limited by a resultant step-up in corporate bond offerings. (18) Alternative C is assumed to involve a rise in the federal funds rate to the 9 to 9½ percent area, and an increase in the level of borrowing to the $500 to $700 million range. Short-term interest rates would rise somewhat further, since the market would not appear to have fully discounted such a tightening. The 3-month bill rate could rise to around 9 percent and large CDs would probably be offered at 9½ percent or higher, exerting upward pressure on the prime rate. Longer-term rates would also rise, and the spread of the mortgage rate over the bond rate may also widen, as lenders contemplated the cost impacts of rising deposit rates, especially with such a large proportion of their deposits in the form of MMDAs and MMCs. Higher U.S. interest rates would probably lead to further upward pressure on dollar exchange rates. -12Directive language (19) Given below are two alternative drafts for the operational paragraph of the directive. The first retains the general approach adopted at the February meeting, but with the language updated to take account of developments since that time, with M3 now apparently just above the upper limit of its long-run range, and M2 starting just above its range. The second is proposed in the event the Committee decides to return to specification of numerical objectives for the monetary aggregates. This alternative also includes language in brackets that might be considered, depending on how or whether the Committee wishes to condition the Desk's response to incoming data on the aggregates. Alternative I - Existing Language For the more immediate future, the Committee seeks to maintain the existing degree of restraint on reserve positions. Lesser re- straint would be acceptable in the context of appreciable slowing of to or below] RELATIVE TO the paths growth in the monetary aggregates [DEL: implied by the long-term ranges, taking account of the distortions relating to the introduction of new accounts. The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range 6 to 10]____ TO ____ percent. of[DEL: -13Alternative II - Language Incorporating Numerical Objectives for Second Quarter In the short run, the Committee seeks restraint on reserves consistent with a slowing from March to June in growth of M2 and M3 to annual rates of about ____and ____ percent respectively. The Committee anticipates that M1 growth at an annual rate of about ____ percent would be consistent with its objectives for the broader aggregates. [The Committee agreed that somewhat faster monetary growth would be tolerated if it appeared to be associated with continuing distortions from growth of the new deposit accounts or unusual demands for liquidity.] [Lesser restraint on reserves would be acceptable in the context of a more pronounced slowing in the growth of the aggregates.] The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of ____ to percent. ____ APPENDIX I Reserves Measures (Millions of dollars, weekly averages, not seasonally adjusted) Week (Date of projection in parentheses) Projections of Reserves Demanded Total Excess Required Reserves Reserves Reserves Assumed Borrowed Reserves1 Implied Nonborrowed Reserves 2 First Published Actual Reserves (current figures in parentheses) Nonborroved Excess Borrowed Reserves Reserves Reserves' Feb. 16 (Feb. 11) 39,416 400 39,816 200 39,616 39,773 (39,425) 952 (609) 595 (594) Feb. 23 (Feb. 18) 39,390 450 39,840 200 39,640 39,649 (39,531) 400 (294) 141 (140) Mar. 2 (Feb. 25) 39,345 350 39,695 200 39,495 39,497 (39,412) 567 (519) 415 (415) Mar. 9 (Mar. 4) 36,837 450 37,287 200 37,087 37,075 (37,017) 569 (511) 331 (331) Mar. 16 (Mar. 11) 37,384 350 37,734 200 37,534 37,098 (37,217) 282 (401) (568) 37,900 297 295 Mar. 23 (Mar. 18) 37,898 325 38,223 200 38,023 Mar. 30 (Mar. 25) 37,840 325 38,165 200 37,965 1. Includes adjustment and seasonal borrowings. 2. Includes extended credit borrowings. 568 Appendix II Interest Rates Consistent with Greenbook GNP Projection (Quarterly averages, in percent) Federal Funds 1983--Q1 3-month Treasury Bill Recent Aaa Utility Bond Mortgage Commitment 8 11-7/8 13 8 11 12-5/8 12k 12-3/8 12-1/8 1984--Ql 7 10-7/8 12-1/8 10o 11-7/8 10ot lit Selected Interest Rates March 28. 1983 Percent Short-Term Po federal funds Treasury bills secondar ndandary m 3-montth h CD 1-year market 3-omonoh Long-Term comm. paper n nk prime U.S. overnment constant maturity yield 3-yearI 10 yea 30-y 1 corporate A utility recently offered I5 12 municlpal Bond Buyer 13 home mortageo on NMA lion FAelA 8 & La Celing curty 14 1 1 6a 9 10 17.32 11.84 20.64 15.75 16.54 12.55 15.65 12.27 15.03 11.81 17.72 13.98 13.30 9.49 18.63 14.80 17.50 13.50 17.46 13.18 15.56 8.19 13.89 8.09 16.86 11.50 15.01 9.81 14.81 10.46 14.63 10.42 16.34 11.75 13.44 9.25 17.66 13.57 16.50 12.00 15.56 12.41 15.00 14.21 14.62 13.99 13.11 13.49 16.56 16.50 14.73 14.13 14.43 13.86 14.22 13.53 15.97 15.19 12.97 12.82 17.60 17.16 14.25 17.65 16.21 15.54 12.50 11.98 12.57 14.44 13.80 14.46 14.38 13.79 13.95 13.74 13.49 13.07 16.50 16.50 16.50 14.18 13.77 14.48 13.87 13.62 14.30 13.37 13.24 13.92 15.44 15.24 15.84 12.59 11.95 12.45 16.89 16.68 16.70 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.40 15.30 15.84 11.88 9.88 9.37 11.90 10.37 9.92 13.44 10.61 10.66 12.62 9.50 9.96 12.86 11.02 9.73 16.26 14.39 13.50 14.00 12.62 12.03 13.95 13.06 12.34 13.55 12.77 12.07 15.61 14.47 13.57 12.28 11.23 10.66 16.82 16.27 15.43 15.50 15.13 13.80 15.56 14.51 13.57 7.71 8.07 7.94 8.29 8.34 8.16 8.63 8.44 8.23 9.51 8.95 8.66 9.08 8.66 8.53 9.16 8.54 8.22 12.52 11.85 11.50 10.62 9.98 9.88 10.91 10.55 10.54 11.17 10.54 10.54 12.34 11.88 11.91 9.69 10.06 9.96 14.61 13.83 13.62 12.75 12.25 12.00 12.83 12.66 12.60 8.68 8.51 7.86 8.11 7.93 8.23 8.01 8.28 8.36 8.54 8.19 8.30 7.96 n.a. 11.16 10.98 9.64 9.91 10.46 10.72 10.63 10.88 11.84 12.09 9.50 9.58 13.25 13.04 12.00 12.00 12.06 11.94 1__ I 1l81-High Low 20.06 12.04 16.72 10.20 15.72 10.67 15.05 10.64 18.70 11.51 18.33 11.39 1982--High Lao 15.61 8.69 14.41 7.43 14.23 7.84 13.51 8.12 15.84 8.53 1982--Feb. Mar. 14.78 14.68 13.48 12.68 13.61 12.77 13.11 12.47 Apr. May June 14.94 14.45 14.15 12.70 12.09 12.47 12.80 12.16 12.70 July Aug. Sept. 12.59 10.12 10.31 11.35 8.68 7.92 Oct. Nov. Dec. 9.71 9.20 8.95 1983--Jan. Feb. money market mutual und 3 -4 1983--Jan. 5 12 19 26 10.21 8.42 8.49 8.44 7.97 7.76 7.63 8.01 8.02 7.82 7.72 8.08 8.07 7.91 7.82 8.16 8.60 8.30 8.15 8.38 8.67 8.10 8.02 8.15 8.34 8.02 7.92 7.77 11.50 11.36 11.00 11.00 9.71 9.56 9.40 9.81 10.37 10.36 10.31 10.61 10.44 10.49 10.54 10.81 11.75 11.70 11.89 12.02 9.48 9.37 9.48 9.66 13.46 13.31 13.12 13.10 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.09 11.98 11.85 12.24 Feb. 2 9 16 23 8.53 8.50 8.62 8.47 8.09 8.24 8.20 7.99 8.19 8.38 8.31 8.12 8.25 8.43 8.36 8.18 8.62 8.68 8.57 8.43 8.32 8.40 8.34 8.23 7.81 7.77 7.82 7.93 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 9.91 10.09 10.00 9.79 10.77 10.97 10.82 10.55 10.93 11.11 10.96 10.72 12.26 12.12 12.10 11.88 9.74 9.72 9.53 9.34 13.06 13.06 13.07 12.98 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.16 12.16 12.00 11.88 Mar. 2 9 16 23 30 8.44 8.59 8.57 8.75 7.93 8.14 8.26 8.47 7.96 8.13 8.28 8.52 7.99 8.14 8.30 8.51 8.26 8.42 8.60 8.84 8.11 8.36 8.45 8.62 7.76 7.71 7.77 7.76 10.79 10.50 10.50 10.50 9.53 9.63 9.80 9.98 10.29 10.39 10.52 10.59 10.51 10.56 10.68 10.69 11.65 11.76 11.77 11.70p 9.04 9.22 9.19 9.15 12.74 12.79 12.81 na.. 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 11.71 11.82 11.88 11.87 8.70 8.85 8.80p 8.44 8.51 8.65 8.51 8.54 8.67 8.51 8.50 8.63 8.80 8.89 8.93 8.60 8.68 8.74 10.50 10.50 10.50 9.95 10.00 10.1GP 10.58 10.58 10.64P 10.71 10.61 10.69P Dally--Nar. 18 24 25 NOTE Weekly data for columns I through 11 are stalement week averages Data in column 7 *re taken from Donoghues Money Fund Report Columns 12 and 13 are -day quoles for Friday and Thursday, respectively. followmng the nd of Ie statemenl week Column 14 is an average of conlract Interesl rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 percent loan to value ratio made bya sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday lollowing S and of I statement week GNMA yields areaverage nl yields to nvestors on mortgagbacked securllts for Immedlatedelivery.assuinng prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHANA mortgages crrying the coupon rate 0 basts points below the current FHANA calling FR 1367 (1182) March 28, 1983 Net Changes in System Holdings of Securities 1 Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted 1 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. 4 Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5 In addition to the net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowing from the System and redemptions (-) of agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6 Includes changes in RPs (+), matched sale-purchase transactions (-), and matched purchase-sale transactions (+). Security Dealer Positions March 26, Millions of dollars - -- Cash Positions Irio pNt _Tow_ OeW blri t-rsuy coupon undr 1 yr I I oer yrm Forward and Futures Positions- TreuHy coupon | I federal ncy private Ihort-term s pivto shot-n 6.032 -11,077 -687 -4.699 -526 -2.715 -7,196* -7.594 -6.696 -3.167 -2,907 -691 10,225 11.123 11.749 -5.552 -10.129 -6.194 -3,392 -4.350 -2.679 2.872 3.556 4.416 14.530 14.698 12,787 -1.403 6.240 3,158 -3,452 -2.794 -1,286 -I,'S7 -1.467 2.643 A.170 5,625 5.251 5.680 5.285 1.461 -1,644 -3,219 -2,893 -2.372 5,948 13.360 11.821 14,044 -2,443 -5.493 -4.468 -5.043 -2.785 -1.791* -2.673 -2.093* -6.679 -5.885* 8.265 1.654 3.934 1.178 10.861 5.08 1912-mighl Low 49.437 *18.696 11.156 -2,699 772 -747 9.456 1,005 6,275 1,955 16,658 6.758 12.501 11,735 4,557 6.388 83 -138 5.245 5,774 2.311 2.504 7.903. 9.312 Apr. May June 13.149 9,324 12.317 7.721 7,390 7.286 -99 -295 -462 4.945 7,008 4.253 2.916 3.117 2.976 July Aug. Sept. 18.722 23.611 16.497 .5768 1.330 275 -583 -632 -534 4,029 4.258 2.366 Oct. Nov. Dec. 18.136 17.310 16.86 1.044 3,653 8.732 109 593 428 9.953 iar. 1led y gcy 185 -1.008 4805 -4,350 Feb. ovr I year -480 -1,750 15.669 540 I393-Jan. under yyear -2.526 -4.702 31.908 -15.795 1963--Jea. Feb. Treasury bils -4.506 -12.842 9M1--figh Loa 1392-Feb. Her. 1983 -7,812 -3.209e 703 509 -1.551 -2.141 -2.884 -3.210 -1.860 -1,508 -2.259 12.962 17.048O 10.5340 -230 -4286 4.947 4,0614 5.125 4,451* 13.166 11.4 79* 17.635 10.555 9.522 14.616 10.378 9,031 9.526 11.004 473 -33 -325 -482 7.108 12 19 26 5.948 6.509 5,352 5.5)3 4.513 15.658 13,212 12.879 12.533 -9.758 -10.326 -9,096 -5.748 -3.147 -3.225 -3.064 -2,307 -3.382 -3.092 -2,971 -2.107 -5.641 -6.860 -7,512 -6.831 2 9 16 23 18.600 19.770 11,752 16,954 10,660 10.257 8,972 11.896 -675 -584 -655 -288 2.190 3.570 2.594 5.311 4.208 4.523 4,035 4.290 12,805 12.251 9.966 11.028 -1,511 -1.136 -3.064 -5.310 -1.755 -1.513 -2.101 -1,659 -1.639 -2.192 -2.690 -1.781 -5.604 -5.320 -3.710 -6.496 2 9 16 23 310 17.477* 10.589* 13.259' 8.2740 -109* 106* 21" -12* 6.394* 3,186* 372* 1,070* 3.980* 5.027* 5.386' 4.521* 12,502* -. -2.325' -1.662* -731* -2.315 -2.162* -2,475 -2.385* -1,670* -1,919 -2,7134 -2.010* -6.445* 13.154 5 21.304* 13,419 14.788 7.683* 4.587 4.118 NOTE: Government scurtas dealer cash positions consist of securities alredy delivered, commntments to buy (s1l) securities on an outright basis or inlmediate delivery (5 busines days or Ioes). and certain "whntissued" Securities ir delayed dllvery (more than 5 business days). Future and for. ward poaHlona include all other commitmnnts involving delayed delivery; lutures contracts are anangad on organized excharin . Underwriting lyndicat positions consists of Issues insyndlcate, acluding trding positions. 1. Cash piu lorward ph -sltcrt ont. ti * Sitrcti conilntial luturs poslllone in Treasury. lederal agency. and private short-wrm 12.248* 11,557* 389* -7.019 -6.006 -4,902* Narch 23 ti preliminary based on partial weeks data. 

Federal Reserve (1983, March 28). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19830329

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19830329,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1983},
  month = {Mar},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19830329},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}