Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. 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Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC August 14, 1981 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) August 14, 1981 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1-B, adjusted for shifts into NOW accounts, expanded at a 3½ percent annual rate in July, after contracting at nearly a 7 percent annual pace in the previous two months. Available data for the first two weeks of August are very strong, however; part of that increase, perhaps one-quarter, seems to reflect the transitory influence of demand balances accumulated to pay for stock tendered in connection with mergers. Even after allowance for this, M1-B in early August appears to be back to a level more nearly in line with the 7 percent June to September target path. M2 expanded at an 8 percent annual rate in July, as its non- transactions component rose more rapidly last month than had been previously anticipated. Fragmentary data for early August suggest a further strength- ening in that component. This strengthening, together with the sizable increase in M1-B so far this month, suggests that M2 has moved to a level above its third-quarter target path. (2) Through July, as shown in the last column of the table on the next page, growth in Ml-B was well below the lower end of its 3½ to 6 percent range for the year, M2 was just below the upper end of its 6 to 9 percent range, and M3--though its growth had decelerated in July--remained well above the 9½ percent upper end of its range. The early August data would place M1-B a little closer to the long-run path this month, but still well below it, and would probably place M2 at/or somewhat above, the upper end of its range. Key Monetary Policy Aggregates (Seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth) March '81 over Dec. '80 June '81 over March '81 July '81 over June '81 July '81 over QIv '80 Money and Credit Aggregates M1-B (shift-adjusted) 1.0 3.4 1.2 8.7 M2 11.8 7.1 8.0 M3 12.8 9.9 8.5 7.7 7.3 5.7 Bank Credit 11.1 8.3 Reserve Measures 1/ Nonborrowed reserves- 1/ Total reserves-Monetary base / 5.9 -1.3 4.9 -7.2 20.0 2.8 3.4 8.4 2.7 6.0 9.6 6.2 1/ Growth rates for reserve measures are adjusted to remove the effects of discontinuities from breaks in the series when Regulations D and M are changed. In addition, such measures are adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with the distorting effects of weekend reserve avoidance activities in late 1980. Memorandum: Target ranges for 1981 (percent increase): M1-B (shift adjusted) M2 M3 Bank Credit 3% to 6 6 to 9 6% to 9% 6 to 9 (3) Credit growth at U.S. banking offices was at a 5¾ percent annual rate in July. Business loan growth accelerated somewhat, as businesses chose to meet an increased share of their credit needs at banks rather than in the commercial paper or capital markets, where net issuance slowed. Merger activity was an insignificant factor in July loan expansion at U.S. banking offices, since virtually all of such loans were booked offshore by both U.S. and foreign banks. However, in early August business loans at large banks expanded sharply, with a little over half the growth reflecting merger loans. (4) In line with the Committee's decision to strengthen growth in M1-B, the reserve aggregates expanded rapidly in July (as shown in the table on the preceding page). sharply. Nonborrowed reserves rose particularly At the same time, borrowings declined, dropping by about $350 million in July on average and another $500 million in the first half of August, as weakness of M1-B in the latter part of July reduced required reserves (with a lag) relative to the nonborrowed reserve path.1/ Member bank borrowing averaged about $1.2 billion in the first two statement weeks of August. (5) The federal funds rate, which averaged a bit over 19 percent in June and July, recently has traded in a 17½ to 18½ percent range. Despite this decline, most other interest rates--both short- and long-term-have risen by ½ to 1¼ percentage points on balance since the July Committee meeting. The upward pressure on interest rates generally reflected increasing concern about the Treasury's longer-run financing 1/ See Appendix I for adjustments made to the reserves path during the intermeeting period. -4needs following enactment of the Administration's tax proposals, a slower than expected drop in the funds rate, incoming economic news that has been less weak than many had anticipated, and the market's need to absorb a large amount of new Treasury issues in a relatively short period in late July and early August. Since late July the Treasury has announced issues to raise $7.9 billion of new money, with issues ranging from a 23-day cash management bill to a 30-year bond in the current mid-August refunding. (6) The dollar strengthened further in foreign exchange markets over the intermeeting period, rising on balance 3 percent on a weighted average basis, reflecting relatively high and rising interest rates here and political uncertainties abroad. Prospective developments (7) Shown below for Committee consideration are two alternative monetary policy strategies for the current quarter. The upper panel of the table shows growth rates for the June-to-September interval covered by the Committee's short-run targets adopted at the last meeting, while the next panel shows implied July-to-September growth rates, given last month's actual growth. rate also are shown. Possible intermeeting ranges for the federal funds More detailed data on these and other aggregates may be found on pages 6 and 7, and charts indicating the relationship of the alternative two-month targets to the Committee's existing longer-run ranges for 1981 may be found on the next three pages. Alt. A Alt. B 7 10½ 6 10 8½ 11½ 7½ 10½ Growth from June to September M1-B M2 Implied Growth from July to September M1-B M2 Federal funds rate range 15 to 21 16 to 22 (8) Alternative A retains the Committee's 7 percent June-toSeptember target for M1-B adopted at the last meeting, a target that would require an 8½ percent annual rate of growth over the two-month July-toSeptember period. However, in view of the greater than expected strength of the nontransactions component of M2, it seems likely that attaining the M1 target for the third quarter will result in M2 expansion in excess of the growth rate of 9 percent or less desired by the Committee at its last meeting. We would now expect growth in M2 from June to September under Alternative levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1-A 1981--May M1-B Alt. A Alt. B Alt. A Alt. B 393.3 393.3 422.1 422.1 June 390.0 390.0 419.0 419.0 July August September 390.9 394.5 396.4 390.9 394.2 395.4 420.2 424.1 426.3 420.2 423.8 425.3 -10.1 -10.1 -8.8 -8.8 (-9.9) (-9.9) (-7.5) (-7.5) 2.8 (-0.7) 11.1 (7.6) 5.8 (4.6) 6.6 2.8 (-0.7) 10.1 (4.6) 3.7 (2.3) 5.5 3.4 (4.2) 11.1 (12.0) 6.2 (6.9) 7.0 3.4 (4.2) 10.3 (11.1) 4.2 (5.0) 6.0 (3.9) 8.4 (6.1) (2.1) 6.9 (3.5) (7.7) 8.7 (9.5) (6.8) 7.3 (8.1) Growth Rates Monthly 1981--June July August September June '81 - September '81 July '81 - September '81 Quarterly Average 1981--QI NOTE: -1.7 -1.7 -0.8 -0.8 QII 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.3 QIII 1.0 0.6 1.7 1.3 Growth rates shown in parentheses are for the observed levels of the aggregates. Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M2 1981--May June July August September M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. A Alt. B 1743.4 1749.3 1761.0 1781.5 1795.2 1743.4 1749.3 1761.0 1780.5 1792.2 2059.0 2076.1 2090.8 2116.7 2134.8 2059.0 2076.1 2090.8 2115.7 2131.8 4.1 8.0 14.0 9.2 4.1 8.0 13.3 7.9 10.0 8.5 14.9 10.3 10.0 8.5 14.3 9.1 Growth Rates Monthly 1981--June July August September -1 June '81 - September '81 10.5 9.8 11.3 10.7 July '81 - September '81 11.7 10.6 12.6 11.8 8.3 10.6 8.2 8.3 10.6 7.9 12.4 10.5 10.5 12.4 10.5 10.3 Quarterly Average 198 1--QI QII QIII Chart 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II-FOMC Actual and Targeted M1-B M1-B Billions of dollars 1460 - Observed Level **** Level Adjusted for Impact of Nationwide NOW Accounts - * * Short-Run Alternatives -4450 S440 3%% ' ::: A **B ' -1420 -4410 -- 400 SI p I N 1980 D I J I F M I A I M I I J J 1981 I A I S I 0 1390 I N D Chart 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class -FOMC Actual and Targeted M 2 M2 Billions of dollars -11840 - Actual Level S.. Short-Run Alternatives -11820 -- 1800 - 1780 -1760 -1740 1720 -1700 - 1680 -1660 1640 I O . N 1980 I I D I J I F I M I A I M I J I J 1981 I A I S I O I N D Chart 3 CONFIDENTIAL (FRJ Class I-FOMC M 3 and Bank Credit M3 Billions of dollars 2150 91/2% .A* -Actual Level ... Short-Run Alternatives B 2100 6'/a% -2050 2000 -A and B alternatives are indistinguishable on this scale. *NOTE: I O I I1 N 1980 D J I I F M I I A M I I I J J A S Actual Level N 1980 N 1900 0 Billions of 00 0 I I O 1981 ANK CREDIT - D J M 1950 A M J J 1981 A S alternative A to be on the order of 10½ percent. Alternative B provides an option that would exert greater restraint on M2 growth, involving a lower target for M1-B growth in the third quarter, one of 6 percent. (9) Both alternatives call for an acceleration of growth of M1-B (adjusted for shifts into NOW accounts) from its modest July pace, an increase which appears to be well in train in early August. Both would reach a level of M1-B in September below the low end of the Committee's longer-run range for this aggregate, and would imply a very slow annual growth rate on a quarterly average basis, 1¼ to 1¾ percent. On the other hand, both alternatives involve an acceleration of M2 over the balance of the quarter that would place this aggregate somewhat above the upper end of its longer-run range in September, though less so under B than A. specifications for alternatives A and B assume that MM The growth slows a bit from its recent extremely rapid pace, while small time deposit growth strengthens relative to July, owing to growth of the 30-month SSC, whose ceiling rate since August 1 can fluctuate in line with Treasury yields. M3 is expected to remain well above its longer-run range under both alternatives, reflecting continued CD growth to finance loan expansion. (10) To achieve the alternative A specifications, total reserves probably would have to expand at about a 13 percent annual rate in August and September, considerably more than in July. Even such a rapid expansion in reserves, and the associated faster money growth, would likely be consistent with short-term interest rates holding near current levels. Nominal GNP is expected by the staff to expand at a 7 percent annual rate in the third quarter, suggesting strong transactions demands for money over the balance of the quarter. Even with the alternative A target specifi- cations, income velocity of M-B would rise at a relatively rapid annual rate of about 5 percent this quarter. It seems reasonable to expect that under alternative A the federal funds rate over the next few weeks might be in the area of 18 percent. With the current level of discount and surcharge rates, borrowing at the discount window could be in a $1 to $1 billion range. (11) It is possible that long-term interest rates could decline some over the next several weeks, as investors become increasingly interested in bonds at the unusually high level of rates currently prevailing. However, the projected stability in short-term rates and the large prospective demands on bond markets would tend to limit the size-- and perhaps the duration--of any drop in rates. The Treasury is likely to raise another $7½ billion of new money this quarter, sponsored agency borrowings will also probably continue to be relatively large, and the Treasury and sponsored agencies may need to borrow about $44 billion in cash in the fourth quarter. In addition, any improvement in rates can be expected to call forth a substantial volume of corporate issues to fund short-term debt. Tax-exempt and foreign borrowings in U.S. capital markets are also projected to remain large. (12) The alternative B specifications imply growth of total reserves from July to September at an 11 percent annual rate. The federal funds rate probably would be around 19 percent or higher during the intermeeting period, and, given the present discount rate structure, borrowing would likely run around $1½ to $2 billion. Under alternative B, market interest rates, especially short-term rates, are likely to rise, perhaps appreciably. Pressure on thrift institution earnings would be more intense under this alternative than under alternative A, and mortgage rates would probably rise further. Longer-term market rates may also rise, -10at least temporarily, in reflection of higher costs of financing positions; business credit demands would continue to be centered on short-term markets. The dollar would remain under upward pressure in foreign exchange markets. -11Directive language (13) Given below are two alternative operational paragraphs for the directive. Alternative I retains the structure of the current directive, focusing on the June to September growth rate for M1-B, with the proviso adopted at the last meeting related to M2. The language would be consistent with either alternatives A or B (with the directive indicating under B that the Committee had lowered its third quarter M1-B target). In this directive structure, it would need to be recognized, however, that the proviso clause for M2 might well be promptly triggered given the staff's current expectation of a strengthening in M2 growth. The language of alternative II would be consistent with a decision by the Committee to choose an M1-B growth rate over the balance of the quarter presently thought needed to exert desired restraint on M2, without prejudging that a lower growth in M1-B than earlier targeted for the quarter will in practice be required. Thus, if this directive included the July to September growth rate for M1-B in alternative B, the language of the directive would permit the higher growth in M1-B needed to meet the 7 percent quarterly target should M2 remain at or fall below the upper bound of its longer-run range. This language is similar to the approach adopted by the Committee at the last mid-quarter meeting on May 18. Alternative I In the short run the Committee seeks behavior of reserve aggregates consistent with growth of M1-B from June to September 7]____ percent after allowance for the impact at an annual rate of [DEL: of flows into NOW accounts (resulting in growth at an annual rate 2]____ percent from the average in the second quarter to of about [DEL: -12the average in the third quarter), provided that growth of M2 remains around the upper limit of[DEL:, or moves within,] its range for the year. It is recognized that shifts into NOW accounts will continue to distort measured growth in M1-B to an unpredictable extent, and operational reserve paths will be developed in the light of evaluation of those distortions. The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of [DEL: l5 to 21]____ TO ____ percent. Alternative II In the short run the Committee seeks behavior of reserve aggregates consistent with a pick-up in growth of M1-B from July to September to an annual rate of ____ percent, or somewhat higher, after allowance for the impact of flows into NOW accounts. Provided that growth of M2 remains around the upper limit of, or moves within, its range for the year, growth of M1-B at an annual rate somewhat higher than the____ percent specified above would be acceptable, in light of the relatively weak growth experienced in July and the objective adopted by the Committee at its July meeting for growth from June to September at an annual rate of 7 percent (resulting in growth at an annual rate of about 2 percent from the average in the second quarter to the average in the third quarter). It is recognized that shifts into NOW accounts will continue to distort measured growth in M1-B to an unpredictable -13extent, and operational reserve paths will be developed in the light of evaluation of those distortions. The Chairman may call for Committee consultation if it appears to the Manager for Domestic Operations that pursuit of the monetary objectives and related reserve paths during the period before the next meeting is likely to be associated with a federal funds rate persistently outside a range of [DEL: 21]____ to 15 TO ____percent. APPENDIX Reserve Targets and Related Measures Intermeeting Period ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Targets for 3-week Average July 15 to July 29 Total Nonborrowed As of July Projection of 3-week Average July 15 to July 29 Total Required Excess Adjustmen Reserves Reserves Reserves Reserves Reserves Borrowing (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (3)-(2) 7 (FOMC Meeting) 10 17 24 Actual 3-week Average 41,359 41,359 41,104 1/ 39,859 39,859 39,604 1 41,359 41,359 41,136 41,109 41,109 40,967 250 250 169 1,500 1,500 1,532 41,134 -/ 39,634 41,126 40,920 205 1,492 41,216 39,548 41,216 40,913 303 1,668 Targets for 3-week Average Aug. 5 to Aug. 19 July Aug. 31 40,782 3/ 39,282 3/ 40,627 40,410 217 1,345 7 40,954 4/ 39,530 / 40,815 40,522 293 1,285 14 40,982 1/ 39,558 51 40,824 40,518 306 1,266 40,518 6/ n.a. - 6/ n.a. - Actual 3-week Average / 2/ Projection for 3-week Average August 5 to August 19 n.a. 6/ - 6/ n.a. 6/ n.a. - Total and nonborrowed reserve paths adjusted downward by $255 million due to multiplier changes. Tdtal and nonborrowed reserves paths adjusted upward by $30 million due to multiplier changes. 3/ Total and nonborrowed reserves paths adjusted downward by $193 million due to multiplier changes. 4/ Total and nonborrowed reserves paths adjusted upward by $142 million due to 5/ 6/ multiplier changes and $30 million to account for the transitory effect of merger activity on deposits in the week of August 5. In addition, the nonborrowed reserves path %as adjusted upward by another $76 million to prevent the unexpectedly low borrowings in the week of August 5 from distorting the nonborrowed reserves path in subsequent weeks. Total and nonborrowed reserves paths adjusted upward by $28 million due to multiplier changes. Not available at time Bluebook was prepared. Table 1 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Percent) ILong-Term Short-Term Federal Period eor di (1) CDs Secondary Auction Market I 6-mo 3-mo (4) (5) Treasury Bills MarketPaper Market 3-mo l-yr (2) (3) STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II--FOMC August 17, 1981 U.S. Govt. Constant Maturity Yields 3-yr 1-yr 30-yr Comm. per Bank Pme Prime ae (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) RHome Mortgages Primary Secondary Market FNMA GNMA Co4 Auc. Sec. (14) (15) (16) Corp. Aaa Utility New Recently Issue Offered (11) (12) Municipal Bond Buyer (13) 14.51 10.53 16.77 14.05 15.03 10.79 16.69 13.98 10.56 7.11 11.94 9.49 16.35 12.18 17.11 14,80 15.93 12.28 17.26 14.84 14.17 10.73 16.55 13.18 1980--High Low 19.83 8.68 16.73 6.49 14.39 7.18 15.70 6.66 20.58 8.17 19.74 7.97 21.50 11.00 14.29 8.61 13.36 9.51 1981--High Low 20.06 13.48 16.72 12.64 14.65 11.83 15.68 12.08 18.70 13.47 18.04 12.87 20.64 17.00 15.83 12.55 14.84 12.27 12.91 9.54 14.10 11.81 1980--July Aug. Sept. 9.03 9.61 10.87 8.06 9.13 10.27 8.00 9.39 10.48 8.10 9.44 10.55 8.65 9.91 11.29 8.41 9.57 10.97 11.48 11.12 12.23 9.27 10.63 11.57 10.25 11.10 11.51 10.24 11.00 11.34 11.60 12.32 12.74 11.41 12.31 12.72 8.12 8.67 8.94 12.19 12.56 13.20 12.66 13.92 14.77 11.53 12.34 12.84 12.81 15.85 18.90 11.61 13.73 15.49 11.30 12.66 13.23 11.57 13.61 14.77 12.94 15.68 18.65 12.52 15.18 18.07 13.79 16.06 20.35 12.01 13.31 13.65 11.75 12.68 12.84 11.59 12.37 12.40 13.18 13.85 14.51 13.13 13.91 14,38 9.11 9.56 10.11 13.79 14.21 14.79 14.95 15.53 15.21 12.91 13.55 13.62 1981--Jan. Feb. Mar. 19.08 15.93 14.70 15.02 14.79 13.36 12.62 12.99 12.28 13.88 14.13 12.98 17.19 16.14 14.43 16.58 15.49 13.94 20.16 19.43 18.05 13.01 13.65 13.51 12.57 13.19 13.12 12.14 12.80 12.69 14.12 14.90 14.71 14.17 14.58 14.41 9.66 10.10 10.16 14.90 15.13 15.40 14.87 15.24 15.74 13.55 14.13 14.18 Apr. May June 15.72 18.52 19.10 13.69 16.30 14.73 12.79 14.29 13.22 13.43 15.33 13.95 15.08 18.27 16.90 14.56 17.56 16.32 17.15 19.61 20.03 14.09 15.08 14.29 13.68 14.10 13.47 13.20 13.60 12.96 15.68 15.81 14.76 15.48 15.48 14.81 10.62 10.79 10.67 15.58 16.40 16.70 16.54 16.93 16.17 14.59 15.31 15.02 July 19.04 14.95 13.91 14.40 17.76 17.00 20.39 15.15 14.28 13.59 16.30 15.73 11.14 16.83 16.65 15.76 1981--June 3 10 17 24 18.40 19.33 19.10 19.20 15.46 15.30 14.16 14.69 13.44 13.31 12.96 13.27 14.49 14.00 13.36 13.94 17.25 17.13 16.35 17.03 16.63 16.68 15.86 16.24 20.43 20.00 20.00 20.00 14.39 14.26 14.04 14.40 13.53 13.42 13.21 13.54 13.09 12.95 12.72 12.97 14.93 15.01 14.35 15.03 14.74 14.59 14.80 10.59 10.63 10.73 10.74 16.76 16.69 16.71 16.62 July 1 8 15 22 29 18.84 19.93 18.76 19.05 18.54 14.25 14.68 14.74 15.17 15.23 13.23 13.51 13.58 14.15 14.24 13.62 14.05 14.23 15.32 14.79 17.00 17.52 17.64 17.90 18.01 16.28 16.80 16.89 17.16 17.21 20.00 20.07 20.50 20.50 20.50 14.48 14.71 14.82 15.39 15.48 13.79 13.98 14.05 14.41 14.51 13.23 13.35 13.38 13.68 13.77 15.72 16.41 16.73 14.94 15.04 15.67 16.05 16.55 10.85 10.97 11.09 11.34 11.44 16.64 16.79 16.74 16.88 17.11 Aug. 5 12 19 26 18.25 18.29 15.21 15.23 14.47 14.46 15.57 15.12 17.94 17.91 17.22 17.23 20.50 20.50 15.83 15.64 14.84 14.67 14.10 13.89 15.55p 16.50 16.08p 11.63 11.94 17.13 n.a. 18.51 17,92 17.55p 15.44 15.42 15.50 14.73 14.54 14.66 18.09 17.92 18.02 17.40 17.21 17.27 20.50 20.50 20.50 15.79 15.83 15. 9 1p 14.83 14.65 14.67p 14.07 13.88 13 .9 5p Oct. Nov. Dec. Daily--Aug. 7 13 14 16.17 16.17 16.43 16.87 17.26 -- 14.97 14.96 14.75 15.09 15.33 15.35 15.56 16.17 15.96 16.55 16.04 NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1, 2, 3, and 5 through 10 are statement week averages of daily data. Weekly data in column 4 are average rates set in the auction of 6-month bills that will be issued on the Thursday following the end of the statement week. For column 11, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 12 and 13 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 14 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 percent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in a bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for government underwritten mortgages; beginning July 7, 1980, figures exclude graduated payment mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. Table 2 / NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES1 / (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Period Treasury Bills Net Chane 2/ 863 4,361 870 6,243 -3,052 1980--Qtr. II III IV 3,249 -3,298 -58 1981--Qtr. I II -2,514 2,135 Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Within 1 year 472 517 1,184 603 912 1107 137 100 1981--Feb. Mar. -357 1,607 Apr. May June 1,141 790 204 115 July 1,225 122 1981--June July Aug. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II--FOMC August 17, 1981 Total Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ 5,187 4,660 7,962 5,035 4,564 891 1,433 127 454 668 6,227 10,035 8,724 10,290 2,035 410 320 2,395 1,234 -100 6i68 164 ----89 23 836 --- -- -- -- -23 -- -- -- -- 1- 5 5- 3,025 2,833 4,188 3,456 2,138 1,156 7 541 Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 10 Total 1,048 758 1,526 523 703 642 553 1,063 454 811 359 236 469 89 -- Within year5 5 - 64 182 0 Over 10 -- - -- 836 - 607 0 S- - - SS -- -- - 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 LEVEL--Aug. 12 347 978 -100 " '" " '" -2,555 2,944 -1,694 -1,352 -588 -2,166 1,502 2,200 1,768 -- -90 -- 295 4,272 -4,921 4,597 -1,986 - " 2,373 -1,381 1,107 1,975 790 179 976 " 6,307 -2,157 -- -382 -------1,592 - 3 10 17 24 - 1,322 978 -100 917 5,241 -4,104 3,894 -4,105 - - 915 -710 -898 0.6 8.7 ----13 - -- ---S 915 48,8 14.6 33.8 13.1 2.4 4.6 1.0 3,607 -2,892 -1,774 -2,597 2,462 134.8 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemption (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to the net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowing from the System and redemptions (-) of agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in RPs (+), matched sale-purchase transactions (-), and matched purchase-sale transactions (+). 7/ Maturing 2-year notes were exchanged on June 2, 1980, for special 2-day bills. At their maturity the bills were exchanged for new 2-year notes. Table 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC August 17, 1981 Security Dealer Positions and Bank Positions Millions of dollars U.S. government securities dealer positions bco.Period ns ues ad dsyndicate cash bills coupons futures bills 1980--Righ Low 8,838 1,972 2,263 -1,482 1981--High Low 15,668 1,273 4,633 1,105 -12,865 -5,930 4,581 5,108 3,681 634 798 -416 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,447 3,047 4,287 1981--Jan. Peb. Mar. nd forwards I coupons Underwriting positionseess corporate bonds municipal bonds reserves Member bank reserve postone brrowing at FRB me seasonal seasonal special adjustment total I 881 19 174 5 3,298 12 3,438 215 -3,599 -2,560 741 -165 309 105 2,614 581 2,923 768 2,438 3,081 414 -1,015 -1,974 -1,185 284 302 256 6 9 25 136 408 1,196 395 658 1,311 143 149 20 -1,556 -7,068 -9,812 -1,685 -2,663 -2,751 206 498 552 66 97 116 1,244 1,963 1,574 1,310 2,059 1,690 9,985 13,317 13,579 1,584 1,812 3,415 -11,976 -12,203 -11,561 -2,884 -2,798 -3,251 544 183 381 120 148 196 1,226 1,156 804 1,395 1,303 1,000 Apr. May June 8,518 1,676 5,547 3,149 2,745 3,278 -7,277 -6,486 -9,934 -3,050 -2,822 -2,925 144 263 333 162 269 291 1,176 1,959 1,746 1,338 2,228 2,037 July 2,950* 3,314* -8,340* -3,012* 370 247 1,432 1,679 June 3 10 17 24 3,004 4,675 8,857 6,425 3,101 3,105 2,939 3,317 -2,838 -2,897 -3,221 -2,858 245 249 289 364 287 277 279 306 1,667 1,930 1,616 1,999 1,954 2,207 1,895 2,305 July 1 8 15 22 29 3,046 3,224 3,349 2,756* 2,732* 4,255 4,385 3,380 2,285* 3,367* -2,799 -3,111 -3,053 -3,089* -2,930* 488 501 129 3 30 p 4 49 p 306 242 241 244p 257p 1,429 1,624 1,054 1,721p 1,735 1,866 1,295 1,730p 1 978 , p 37 9 228p 223p 890p 1,012p 1,11 8 p 1,271p 1980--July Aug. Sept. Aug. 5 12 19 26 2,985* 4,215* 2,064* 2,696* -8,643 -9,022 -11,500 -10,465 -9,416 -8,462 -7,339 -8,712* -8,528* -7,606* -8,879* -2,794* -2,828* p 288p 1,486p - NOTE: Government securities dealer cash positions consist of securities already delivered, commitments to buy (sell) securities on an outright basis for immediate delivery (5 business days or less), and certain "when-issued" securities for delayed delivery (more than 5 business days). Futures and forward positions include all other commitments involving delayed delivery; futures contracts are arranged on organized exchanges. Underwriting syndicate positions consists of issues in syndicate, excluding trading positions. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate, which are Friday figures. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowing are weighted averages of statement week figures. Monthly data for dealer futures and forwards are end-of-month figures for 1980. *Strictly confidential FO 1RAQ I7AIR1 

Federal Reserve (1981, August 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19810818

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19810818,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1981},
  month = {Aug},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19810818},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}