Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC December 15, 1978 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC December 15 1978 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M-1 contracted in November at a 4.6 per cent annual rate and appears to be growing at only about a 2 per cent annual rate in December. Thus, over the two months, M-1 is projected to decline at a 1¼ per cent annual rate. Demand for M-1 has been tempered by the recent substantial increases in market interest rates, as well as by the introduction of automatic transfer services (ATS), but the recent weakness appears greater than can be explained by these factors. Shifts to ATS accounts are estimated to be reducing M-1 growth by about 3 percentage points at an annual rate over November and December. M-2 growth is projected to slow to about a 5 per cent rate over November and December, below the low end of the FOMC's range. The interest-bearing component of M-2 grew slightly more rapidly in November than in October, reflecting growth of money market certificates and the large time deposits in this aggregate. Small time deposits subject to fixed rate ceilings declined in November, as did savings deposits despite the introduction of ATS. Given the Comparison of FOMC Policy Ranges for November-December to Latest Staff Estimates M-1 M-2 Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) Ranges Latest Estimates Upper limit of 5 -1.3 6 to 9½ 9¾ to 10 5.0 Avg. for statement week ending Nov. 22 9.68 29 9.85 9.87 Dec. 6 9.79 13 weakness in savings deposits, M-l+ is projected to decline at a 4 per cent annual rate over November and December. Inflow of deposits to thrift institutions in November slowed somewhat, even though sales of money market certificates continued to be robust. (2) Following the November FOMC meeting, the Account Management raised its Federal funds rate target to the 9-7/8 per cent to 10 per cent range set by the Committee. midpoint of the 9 3/4 As the weakness in the monetary aggregates developed, the FOMC voted on December 8 to maintain the 9-7/8 per cent Federal funds target until the next meeting, unless the monetary aggregates weakened significantly further. Member bank borrowing has varied between $600 and $800 million in recent weeks, a normal level for the prevailing spread between the discount and Federal funds rate. (3) The trade-weighted exchange value of the dollar has declined by 1 per cent since the November FOMC meeting, but is currently about 9 per cent above its October 31 low. The dollar's declines against the German mark and Swiss franc have more than offset a small rise against the Japanese yen. 1/ (4) Despite further increases in the Federal funds rate, private short-term interest rates have changed little, on balance, 1/ Operations on behalf of Treasury and System accounts resulted in net purchases of about $2 billion -3from peak levels reached in the week preceding the November FOMC meeting. However, CD rates, as indicated by the highest offering quotes, are currently below their mid-November peaks, when banks were issuing CD's in large volume, partly to finance credit extensions to their own foreign branches and to foreign banks. The 3- month Treasury bill has risen substantially since the period just prior to the November meeting, and as a result the unusually wide spread of private short-term rates over the bill rate has narrowed. The market supply of these bills for private investors has been enlarged by the Treasury's decision to shift part of its weekly bill offerings from the 6-month to the 3-month area, while demand for bills by foreign institutions has been lower as a result of their reduced exchange market intervention. The bank prime rate has increased 50 basis points since the last FOMC meeting in response to earlier advances in market rates. (5) Bond yields rose 10 to 30 basis points in the intermeeting period as a bearish tone developed in capital markets when published data suggested that economic activity has continued at a stronger than anticipated pace and inflationary pressures have remained intense. Agency and municipal bond new issue volume rose in November, while the corporate calendar remained moderate. With its dollar balances augmented by earlier sales of obligations directly -4to foreign official accounts, the Treasury raised no new money from private investors in domestic markets in the intermeeting period.1 / (6) Loan demands at commercial banks appear to have remained relatively strong in November. Business loans expanded at about their October pace, while real estate and probably consumer loans increased more rapidly. To finance loan expansion, banks issued a substantial volume of large negotiable and nonnegotiable CD's, and in addition, liquidated security holdings. The increase in use of managed liabilities was particularly sharp earlier in the month when private demands for dollar credits seem to have been augmented by borrowing in anticipation of possible dollar depreciation. (7) The demand for residential mortgage credit apparently has remained quite strong, as indicated by a further rise in mortgage commitments at S&L's to a record level in October and an estimated vigorous expansion of mortgage credit in November at both banks and thrift institutions. In the face of this continued strong demand, and with deposit flows slowing, the average rates on new commitments for conventional mortgages at S&L's have risen 15 basis points to 10.35 per cent since the FOMC meeting. 1/ The Treasury did raise around $550 million of new money from foreign official accounts through sale of nonmarketable issues and add-ons to regular auctions. The Treasury also sold $1.6 billion equivalent of M1-denominated securities on December 12. The proceeds of this issue are being warehoused with the Federal Reserve with the Treasury's dollar proceeds being added to its general balance. As the Treasury balance at the Federal Reserve is reduced, the Desk will, all other things equal, sell Treasury securities to the public to neutralize the reserve impacts--in effect substituting Federal Reserve sales of securities for Treasury issuance of securities in U.S. markets. -5(8) The table on the next page shows percentage annual rates of change in related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. 1976 & 1977 Average Past Twelve Months Nov. '78 over Nov. '77 Past Six Months Nov. '78 over May '78 Past Three Months Nov. '78 over Aug. '78 Past Months Nov. '78 over Oct. '78 Nonborrowed reserves 2.0 7.1 8.2 8.3 12.8 Total reserves 3.0 6.6 5.4 3.8 -4.2 Monetary base 7.5 9.1 8.7 9.3 6.1 6.9 7.3 5.7 4.4 -4.6 share draft accounts, and demand deposits at mutual savings banks). 11.0 4.9 3.5 2.3 -7.1 10.4 8.1 8.5 8.0 4.3 12.3 9.2 10.3 10.4 6.8 M-4 (M-2 plus CD's) 8.6 10.2 9.5 11.1 12.9 M-5 (M-3 plus CD's) 11.1 10.4 10.8 12.1 12.0 Month-end basis 9.7 11.4 9.5 8.7 6.5 Monthly average 9.5 11.5 11.1 11.6 14.0 -0.4 2.0 1.4 3.0 7.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 Concepts of Money M-1 (Currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M-1+ (M-l plus savings deposits at commercial banks, NOW accounts at banks and thrift institutions, credit union M-2 (M-l plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. -7Prospective developments (9) Shown below for Committee consideration are two alternative specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate for the December-January period. Alternative A calls for no near-term change in the Federal funds rate, while alternative B increases policy restraint marginally in coming weeks. (More details and longer-term data are contained in the tables on pp. 8 and 9.) Alt. A Alt. B M-1 2½ to 7½ 2 to 7 M-2 6 to 10 5½ to 9½ M-1+ 1 to 5 ½ to 4½ 9½ to 10¼ 9¾ to 10½ Ranges for Dec.-Jan.1/ Addenda Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period) (10) Alternative A presumes a Federal funds rate between now and the January meeting centered in the prevailing 9¾ to 10 per cent range. The staff projects that M-1 will increase only some- what in December, on a daily average basis, but the evident growth of income and expenditures suggests that a substantial increase in M-1 is likely in January. 1/ Consequently, growth in this aggregate over the Ranges for the forthcoming short-run policy period expressed in the form recommended by the subcommittee on the directive in its report distributed to the FOMC are shown in appendix IV for comparison purposes. Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-2 M-1+ M-1 1/ Alt. A Alt. B Alt. A Alt. B Alt. A Alt. B November December January 360.6 361.2 363.5 360.6 361.1 363.2 585.3 584.9 588.4 585.3 584.6 587.8 870.5 874.6 881.8 870.5 874.3 881.1 1978 QIII QIV 357.3 361.3 357.3 361.2 582.6 586.3 582.6 586.2 854.0 870.8 854.0 870.7 1979 QI QII QIII 364.3 366.4 368.7 363.9 366.0 368.7 591.5 600.8 610.4 590.7 599.9 610.2 887.2 903.1 919.0 886.3 902.0 918.5 2.0 7.6 1.7 7.0 -0.8 7.2 -1.4 6.6 5.7 9.9 5.2 9.3 4.5 3.3 2.3 2.5 4.4 3.0 2.3 3.0 2.5 3.5 6.3 6.4 2.5 3.1 6.2 6.9 7.9 7.5 7.2 7.0 7.8 7.2 7.1 7.3 3.9 2.4 3.7 2.6 3.1 6.4 2.8 6.6 7.8 7.2 7.6 7.3 3.2 3.2 4.8 4.7 7.6 7.6 1978 1979 Growth Rates Monthly: 1978 1979 December January Quarterly Average: 1978 1979 QIV QI QII QIII Semi-Annual: QIII '78-QI '79 QI '79-QIII '79 Annual: QIII '78-QIII '79 1/ The staff has assumed that over the longer-run policy period from QIII '78 to QIII '79 M-l growth will be reduced 3 percentage points by ATS. In projecting GNP, monetary aggregates, and interest rates the staff has carried forward the assumption in most recent Bluebooks that M-l, in the absence of ATS, would increase at a 6k per cent annual rate over the longer-run. Thus, the observed growth of M-l is expected to be 3k per cent over the QIII '78 to QIII '79 period. Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M-3 Bank Credit Alt. A Alt. B Alt. A Alt. B November December January 1492.8 1501.9 1514.5 1492.8 1501.5 1513.5 971.6 977.3 985.4 971.6 977.3 984.8 1978 QIII QIV 1456.1 1493.0 1456.1 1492.9 944.9 969.8 944.9 969.6 1979 QI QII QIII 1525.2 1556.6 1587.7 1523.9 1554.8 1586.8 993.6 1016.0 1038.9 992.4 1014.2 1037.5 7.3 10.1 7.0 9.6 7.0 9.9 7.0 9.2 1978 1979 Growth Rates Monthly: 1978 1979 December January Quarterly Average: 1978 QIV 10.1 10.1 10.5 10.5 1979 QI QII QIII 8.6 8.2 8.0 8.3 8.1 8.2 9.8 9.0 9.0 9.4 8.8 9.2 9.5 8.2 9.3 8.3 10.3 9.1 10.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.9 9.8 Semi-Annual: QIII '78-QI '79 QI '79-QIII '79 Annual: QIII '78-QIII '79 -10December-January period is projected to be in a 2½ to 7½ per cent annual rate range. Transfers from demand to ATS accounts are expected to depress M-1 growth over the two-month period by 2 to 4 percentage points, a bit less than previously assumed. (11) If December projections materialize, M-1 growth in the current quarter will be only about 4 per cent, with ATS effects reducing growth by about one percentage point. Thus, even adding back the effects of ATS, M-1 growth will be the slowest in over two years.1/ for a quarter The staff's econometric model suggests that, given the estimated almost 13 per cent rate of increase in nominal GNP in the fourth quarter, interest rates can explain only part of the slowdown in M-1. It is too early to be certain if this shortfall is transitory or represents the onset of another downward drift in money demand associated with more aggressive adoption of cash management techniques. The staff's projection for the near term assumes that underlying money demand will lead to a strengthening of M-1 growth, but that over the longer run policy period there will be some continued downward drift in money demand. (12) The supplementary aggregate M-1+ is expected to expand in a 1 to 5 per cent range over December-January, noticeably less than M-1, as weakness in non-ATS savings continues to limit growth in this aggregate. 1/ While the staff is projecting that regular With the exception of the second quarter of 1978--when nominal GNP accelerated to over a 20 per cent annual rate as the economy rebounded from the adverse weather and coal strike during last winter--the implied V-1 for the current quarter will increase at its most rapid rate in almost three years. Appendix II displays projected rates of growth of velocity. -11passbook accounts at commercial banks will begin to rise in December, following their unusually large recent contraction, the average level of such accounts is expected to grow only modestly, if at all, over the period. (13) Under alternative A, M-2 is projected to expand in a 6 to 10 per cent annual rate range in December-January, a somewhat more rapid pace than in recent weeks. This acceleration reflects mainly the expected strengthening of M-1 and the anticipated end of the recent decline in outstanding savings deposits. Growth in the interest-bearing component of M-2 is expected to be at about a 9 to 10 per cent annual rate, with growth almost wholly attributable to expansion in large time deposits that are not subject to interest rate ceilings. (14) Projected credit demands suggest that banks will be forced to continue to rely on managed liabilities to supplement their lendable funds. Further issuance of large CD's, though at a reduced rate, is in prospect, as is a resumption of growth in domestic nondeposit liabilities and net Eurodollar borrowing. Banks thus will experience mounting balance sheet pressures as borrowing ratios continue to rise and as further run-offs of bank holdings of Treasury securities cause liquidity ratios to decline further. -12(15) At thrift institutions some further moderation in the rate of deposit inflows from the pace of the late summer and early fall is probable in light of higher market yields and the completion of the stock adjustment of financial assets that accompanied the introduction of the new 6-month certificates. Nevertheless, virtually all of the growth of deposits at S&L's and MSB's is expected to continue to come from sales of MMC's. Sample data for early December indicate that S&L's are not only rolling over their maturing 6-month certificates, but continuing to issue a substantial net volume of these instruments. Aggressive marketing of MMC's is being induced by competitive pressures, by a need for funds to meet mortgage loan commitments, and by FHLB advances policies.1/ (16) If the Federal funds rate remains within the 9¾ to 10 per cent range over the intermeeting period, as envisioned under alternative A, interest rates on short-term market instruments will likely fluctuate within a narrow range. Private short-term rates appear to have fully adjusted to the current funds rate level, and no significant change in private short-term credit demands appears in prospect for the weeks immediately ahead. The relative movement of Treasury bill rates will, of course, be influenced by the level of foreign exchange market intervention and the portfolio policies of foreign official institutions. 1/ The FHLBB has indicated that advances will not be liberally available to institutions that do not make reasonable efforts to roll over maturing 6-month certificates. -13(17) Yields on longer-term bonds are likely to remain basically stable into the early weeks of January, barring unexpected strength in the monetary aggregates or in current economic indicators. The financing activity of corporations and municipalities is expected to be seasonally light over the holiday period. In December, Treasury financing activities will be confined to roll-overs of maturing 2and 4-year notes. Net borrowing by the Treasury in the domestic market over the next several weeks is expected to be limited to a $1¼ to $1¾ billion auction of 15-year bonds to be conducted around the turn of the year; since participants are anticipating this offering, they have presumably already discounted it.1/ With deposit flows slowing somewhat, yields on commitments for new conventional mortgages may continue to edge higher. (18) Under alternative B, the Federal funds rate would rise by mid-January to the midpoint of a 9¾ to 10½ per cent range. M-1 growth would likely be in a 2 to 7 per cent annual rate range over December-January, and M-1+ and M-2, respectively, in a ½ to 4½ and 5½ to 9½ per cent range. The resulting increase in short-term market rates of interest would further slow the growth of deposits subject to fixed rate ceilings, induce more aggressive offerings of MMC's and large denomination time deposits, and a tightening of bank lending terms--with the prime loan rate moving up to 11¾ or 12 per cent. 1/ The Treasury is also expected to issue Swiss franc denominated notes, amounting to about $1.2 billion equivalent, in the first part of January. -14Long-term yields would also probably move up, but the light financing calendar and further evidence of the System's determination to constrain monetary growth would tend to limit such movement. (19) If M-1, as expected, expands at a 4 per cent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the longer-run growth range for this aggregate implies an M-1 growth over the first three quarters of 1979 at a 2¾ per cent annual rate.1/ Assuming the staff's current GNP projections and some downward shift in money demand, the staff believes that such growth in M-1 is generally consistent with the Federal funds rate ranges shown in Appendix I. Reflecting monetary restraint already in train, the midpoint of alternative A would call for no further rise in the funds rate over the longer-run policy period. The alternative B pattern contemplates that an increase in the funds rate to a little over 10 per cent in the intermeeting period would be maintained through the first quarter of 1979. This additional restraint on monetary expansion would imply that the funds rate could be lower than the alternative A path by next summer, while still achieving the same growth in the aggregates over the QIII '78 to QIII '79 period. However, if the expected downward drift in money demand does not occur, higher interest rates than indicated by either Federal funds path would be required to achieve the desired growth in the aggregates. 1/ This assumes, as did previous Bluebooks, that, in the absence of ATS, the Committee would desire M-1 growth of 6¼ per cent over the QIII '78 to QIII '79 policy period. The staff has assumed ATS will reduce M-1 by 3 percentage points over this period and that therefore observed M-1 growth is expected to be 3¼ per cent over this QIII '78 to QIII '79 policy period. -15Directive language (20) Given below are suggested operational paragraphs for the directive. The language added last month "giving due regard ... to the program for supporting the foreign exchange value of the dollar" has been retained along with the reference, added in October, "to uncertainties associated with the introduction of ATS." Alternative language consistent with the short-run specifications of the alternatives discussed in the preceding section is shown for the Committee's objective for the Federal funds rate early in the period. At a later point, alternative language is also provided for placing main emphasis either on monetary aggregates or, as was agreed at the November meeting, on money market conditions. The specifications adopted last month are shown in strike-through form. In the short-run, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that are broadly consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited above, while giving due regard to the program for supporting the foreign exchange value of the dollar, to developing conditions in domestic financial markets, and to uncertainties associated with the introduction of ATS. Early in the period before the next regular meeting, System open market operations are to be directed at attaining a weekly average Federal funds rate (A) (B) AT ABOUT THE CURRENT LEVEL. slightly above the current level. -16- Subsequently, operations shall be directed at maintaining the weekly average Federal funds rate within the range of {DEL: 9¾-to-10] ____ TO ____ per cent. In deciding on the specific objective for the Federal funds rate, the Manager is to be guided mainly by a range of tolerance for the annual rate of growth over the [DEL: November-December]DECEMBER-JANUARY period of[DEL: 6-to-9½]____ ____ TO per cent in M-2, provided that the rate of growth in M-1 does not appear to exceed [DEL: 5] ____per cent. Money market emphasis The objective for the funds rate is to be raised or lowered within its range if the rate of growth of M-2 appears to be close to or beyond the upper or lower limit of its range. Weight is to be given to M-1 if it appears to be growing at a rate close to or above its limit. If the rates of growth in the aggregates appear to be falling outside the limits of the indicated ranges at a time when the objective for the funds rate has already been moved to the corresponding limit of its range, the Manager will promptly notify the Chairman, who wil then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. Monetary aggregates emphasis The objective for the funds rate is to be raised or lowered in an orderly fashion within its range if the rate -17of growth of M-2 appears to be significantly above or below the midpoint of the indicated range. Weight is to be given to M-1 if it appears to be growing at a rate close to or above its limit. If the rates of growth in the aggregates appear to be falling outside the limits of the indicated ranges at a time when the objective for the funds rate has already been moved to the corresponding limit of its range, the Manager will promptly notify the Chairman, who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. 1 Recently Established M-1 Growth Ranges and Actual M-1 CHART Billions of dollars 6% Projection- - 375 Q3 '78-Q3 '79 - - 6 5 2 2 % -- 3365 -- S355 SQ2 '78-02 '79 0 0s 335 - d 4,'% 365 1 365 %% SQ1 '78-Q1 '79 325 _ / 355 365 335 325_ / 355 Q4 '77-Q4 '78 335 -- 345 -2 325 335 335 - 325 I 1977 I I 1978 I I I I I I 1979 I 325 CHART 2 Recently Established M-2 Growth Ranges and Actual M-2 Billions of dollars 945 Projection -s g - 930 Q3'78-Q3 -915 - 900 - 885 - 870 855 '79 885 870 855 S9% 885 01 '78-Q1 '79 e 870 .%% 855 885 -870 -855 Q4'77-Q4/2'78 04 '77-Q4 '78 -840 -825 S810 795 I 1977 1978 1979 I .I 780 Chart 3 Recently Established M-3 Growth Ranges And Actual M-3 Billions of dollars 1640 Projection -io - 1610 Q3 '78-Q3 '79 - # # - 1580 " - 1550 - 1520 1490 7 1520 %% S1490 1370 - 1550 -1520 1340 '79 1310 -1490 7%% 1370 1550 1340 1520 1310 S1490 -1460 4 '77-% 4 7 04 '77-04 '78 1370 - 1430 1340 1310 _ 4nn 1370 1370 1340 1340 1310 'I I I I 1977 I I I I I I I 1978 I I I I I I I i I I 1979 I I I 1310 Chart 4 Recently Established Bank Credit Growth Ranges and Actual Bank Credit Billions of dollars 11 1055 % Projection Q3 '78-Q3 '79 - 1035 - S X-C- 1015 - 995 S' - 975 - 955 11A% 0/2 '78-02 '79 1 %u 40 X l 1975 - - 875- % 855 - 4 ' 80 975 Q1 '78-Q1 '79 e 835- .%7/ - - 8 10 % 835 975 - 955 935 85535 - 915 - 895 875 - - 855 835 ~ 04 '77-04 '78 . 875 875 955 935 855 8 955 s J 935 10- S---10 875 9 3 5 I I I I I I I 1978 I I I I I I I I I I 1979 I I I 855 835 CHART 5 Recently Established M-1+Growth Range and Actual M-1+ Billions of dollars 7 Projection--- 640 7%% 620 Q3 '78-Q3 '79 -.- 5% 600 580 560 I 1977 I i I I 1 I 1 iI II 1978 I I I I 1979 I I I I Appendix I Projected Federal Funds Rate Alt. A Alt. B 1978--QIV 94 to 9-5/8 94 to 9-5/8 1979--QI 9k to 10 9-7/8 to 10-3/8 QII 9k to 10 9k to 10 QIII 9k to 10 9 to 9% Appendix II Implied Velocity Growth Rate Alt. A Alt. B V-1 (GNP/M-1) 1978--III IV 2.6 7.8 (6.7) 1979--1 8.1 6.7 (4.4) (2.8) 5.7 (2.4) II III (6.7) 8.5 6.7 5.3 (4.9) (2.8) (2.1) V-1+ (GNP/M-1+) 1978--111 IV 1979--I II III V-2 (GNP/M-2) 1978--III IV 1979--I II III Note: 1.3 4.5 1.3 4.5 4.3 2.0 0.9 Figures in parentheses reflect V-i velocity without ATS. Appendix Table III-1 MONEY STOCK--M-1 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarter ly)/ Ending Period 1975 I 74IV 751 7511 75III 75IV 761 76II Base Period 76III 76IV 771 7711 _____ 77111 77IV 781 7811 2.1 II 4.3 6.5 III 5.2 6.7 7.0 IV 4.6 5.4 4.9 2.9 4.6 5.3 4.8 3.8 4.7 II 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.9 5.9 7.0 III 4.9 5.3 5.1 4.6 5.2 5.4 IV 5.2 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.8 6.2 5.8 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.6 6.1 6.4 6.2 7.4 7.2 II 5.7 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.5 6.9 6.8 7.8 7.9 8.6 III 6.0 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.9 8.0 8.4 8.3 IV 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.0 7.7 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.3 II 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.3 III 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.2 9.1 7.9 IV 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.6 6.2 1976 I 1977 I 1978 I 78111 * * * * * * * * 10.3 * *** 1979 III I/ Alt. 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.1 3.2 Alt. 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.1 3.2 Based on quarterly average data. Appendix Table III-2 MONEY STOCK--M-1+ (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Ending Period 741V 751 7511 75I11 75IV 1975 I 5.3 II 8.5 11.9 III 9.4 11.6 IV 8.8 10.0 9.8 11.0 10.7 10.4 14.1 1976 I 761 7611 Base Period 7611 76IV 771 7711 7711 77IV 781 9.1 6.9 10.5 11.6 11.5 11.5 13.9 13.8 III 10.1 10.9 10.7 10.6 11.8 10.7 IV 10.7 11.5 11.4 11.5 12.6 12.2 11.3 15.1 11.0 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.8 12.4 12.0 14.1 13.2 II 10.8 11.4 11.3 11.3 12.1 11.7 11.2 12.4 11.1 8.9 III 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.9 11.5 11.1 10.6 11.3 10.1 8.6 8.2 IV 10.2 10.7 10.6 10.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 10.4 9.3 8.0 7.6 7.0 10.1 9.9 10.3 9.8 9.2 9.5 8.4 7.3 6.7 6.0 5.0 7.2 6.8 6.3 6.0 7.0 1978 I 9.8 10.2 II 9.6 III 9.3 IV 8.9 * * 7.7 9.8 9.7 9.9 9.5 9.0 9.1 8.2 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.1 8.6 8.7 7.8 6.9 6.5 6.1 5.8 6.2 5.4 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.5 7.9 8.0 7.1 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.0 5.0 4.0 10.0 78111 11.3 II 1977 I 7811 * * * * * * * * * * 1979 III Alt. 8.4 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.4 6.7 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.3 4.9 4.8 Alt. 8.3 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.3 6.7 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.7 l/ Based on quarterly average data. Appendix Table III-3 MONEY STOCK--M-2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Ending Period 4IJ 1975 I 6.4 751 LZK 75111 75V 76I 7611 Base Period 76111 76IV 771 II 8.3 10.2 III 8.9 10.2 IV 8.4 9.1 8.6 6.9 8.9 9.6 9.4 9.0 11.1 II 9.2 9.7 9.6 9.4 10.7 10.3 III 9.2 9.6 9.5 9,3 10.2 9.7 9.0 IV 9.7 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.9 10.9 11.2 13.3 9.8 10.2 10.3 10.3 11.0 11.0 11.2 12.3 11.2 II 9.8 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.8 10.7 10.8 11.4 10.4 9.5 III 9.9 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.7 10.6 10.7 11.1 10.3 9.9 IV 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.0 9.9 9.8 1976 I 1977 I 1978 I 7711 7711 77IV 781 78II 10.3 10.2 9.8 9.4 9.3 8.3 9.9 9.3 8.8 8.5 7.7 7.0 9.5 9.8 9.7 9.7 II 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.1 8.6 8.4 7.8 7.6 III 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.1 8.7 8.6 8.2 8.1 9.2 IV 9.3 9,5 9.5 9.4 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.0 8.6 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.7 ** * ** 78111 * * * * * 1979 III 1/ Alt. 9.0 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.6 Alt. 9.0 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.6 Based on quarterly average data. Appendix Table III-4 MONEY STOCK--M-3 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Ending Period 1975 1 ____~_~_ 74V 251 75I1I 2IV 761 7611 Base Period 76III 7 IllI mII 771 7711 77111 771v 781 7811 711I 8.3 II 10.6 13.0 III 11.6 13.2 13.5 IV 11.1 12.1 11.6 9.8 11.4 12.2 12.0 11.2 12.7 II 11.6 12.2 12.0 11.6 12.5 12.3 III 11.5 12.1 11.9 11.5 12.1 11.8 11.3 IV 12.0 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.8 12.9 13.2 15.0 12.1 12.5 12.5 12.3 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.9 12.8 11.9 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.8 11.7 10.7 12.0 12.3 12.3 12.1 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.7 12.0 11.6 12.5 11.9 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.4 11.7 11.4 11.8 11.1 11.6 11.9 11,8 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.0 10.5 10.5 9.5 7.9 II 11.3 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.1 10.5 10.0 9.0 8.0 8.0 III 11.3 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.5 10.1 10.0 9.4 8.8 9.2 10.4 IV 11.2 11.4 11.3 11. 1 11.2 11. 1 11.0 11.0 10.5 10.1 10.1 9.6 9.2 9.7 10.5 Alt. 10.8 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.4 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.2 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.0 Alt. 10.8 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.3 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.2 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.0 1976 1 1977 I IV 1978 I 9.9 10.5 1979 III 1/ Based on quarterly average data. APPENDIX IV Alternative Short-run Growth Rates and Federal Funds Rate Ranges The table below shows growth rate ranges for M-1 and M-2 expressed as the growth from the average of the three months ending in October to the average of the three-months ending in January. These ranges are based on the same staff projections of December and January as appear in the present two month ranges shown in paragraph 9 of the text. This three-month averaging procedure is proposed by the Subcommittee on the Directive, in its December 13 memorandum to the FOMC Alt. A Alt. B M-l 1-1/4 to 3-1/4 1 to 3 M-2 6 to 7-1/2 Ranges for average of threemonths ending in January over three-months ending in October 6 to 7-1/2 Addendum M-1+ Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period) -3/4 to 3/4 -1 to 1/2 9-1/2 to 10-1/4 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 As may be seen in the table, the difference in method of specifying growthrates in aggregates for the short-run operating period changes these growth rates, narrows the ranges, and reduces the difference in growth rates between alternatives. This reflects the IV-2 combined effect of the reduction in the annualization factor from 1/ the reduced weight of revisions in the terminal month 6 to 4, (which in the proposed procedure gets only 1/3 of its present weight), and the partly offsetting effect from including revisionsin the month preceding the terminal month (i.e., the month of the FOMC meeting) in the end-period. The above factors, including a review of historical relation- ships between revisions of monetary aggregates in the month of the FOMC meeting and the succeeding month, suggest that projected growth rates of both M-1 and M-2, calculated on a three-month average over a three month average,would have been revised over the intermeeting period by about 37 per cent of the revisions that occurred in the projected growth rates over the present two-month policy period. Thus, experience suggests that the tolerance ranges under the proposed procedure should be about two-fifths as wide as at present in order to assure no change in FOMC responses in adjusting the Federal funds rate to unanticipated movements in the aggregates from one FOMC meeting to the next. 1/ The proposed procedure has an end-period that is centered threemonths from the center of the base period, while the present procedure has a one month end-period that is two months beyond the base month. 2/ These revisions in the month prior to the terminal month have been positively correlated with the terminal month revisions, and thus are a factor tending to add to the variability of the projected growth rate under the proposed procedure. Chart I 12/15/78 Money Market Conditions and Interest Rates MARKET CONDITIONS Per cent 11 INTEREST RATES Short-term Per -- cent INTEREST RATES Long-term cent 14 Weekly Weekly Averages verages Per 14 - -10 9 13 - - 13 12 - - 12 - 11 .RAL FUNDS RATE - 8 - - 11 FHA MORTGAGES 2 7Borrowed 111 1 - -Monh 1 11 1 S5 - 8 - FNMA Monday Auction GOVT. BONDS 10-Yr. Averages I1 - - 8 - 7 Billions of dollars Borrowed - 2 7 S~3-Month 1977 1978 II PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-6 Month MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER Thursdays 2 Net Borrowed I 6 - +5 0 I I I I 1979 I 1 I 1 11 I 1 1978 I l 1979 4 1 1 1 1977 I I I I I I I~ 1978 . Il 1979 4 Chart II CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II-FOMC Actual and Projected Reserves 12/15/78 Billions of dollars 44 43 42 TOTAL 41 -40 -39 -38 -37 36 S Annual rate, per cent MONTHLY GROWTH RATES 20 TOTAL S1+ NONBORROWED SII JASO I N 1977 D J F MA M J J 1978 A 11 S O 20 N D J F MA 1979 M J Table 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES DEC. 15, 1978 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Broad Narrow (M2) (Ml) Period MONTHLY TotalOther Total 4 Time & Savings Deposits Than CD's Other Savin s _Nondeposit CD's 7 Surces of Funds 2/ 8 LEVELS-SBIL 501.6 505.4 509.9 (513.4) 223.9 221.9 (220.8) 9.1 10.6 13.5) 6.8 11.3 9.4) 1.3 4.5 -6.1) 1 7.9 8.9 7.9) 10.1 9.5 12.9) 6.4 10.0 10.3) 1.6 1.3 S-0.5) 1 12.5 7.0 4.3 5.7) 13.8 7.9 23.7 8.5) 11.8 9.1 10.7 8.2) 9.7 -1.6 -10.7 -5.9) 13.6 17.7 28.1 18.7) 25.0 1.4 98.0 10.1) 16.2) 9.5) -8.3) 23.7) 54.4) 360.9 362.0 360.6 (361.2) 1978--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. % Total U.S. Govt. Deposits 1/ 862.4 867.4 870.5 1874.6) ( 17.4 21.2 21.7 12.9) 589.7 593.6 605.3 (609.6) 2 77.4 2181.5 2188.1 (2' 92.6) 224.2 88.1 88.2 95.4 69.8 74.9 73.2 ( 96.2) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 8.8 10.4 S5.7) 11.5 9.2 0.3) 1978-2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 11.4 ( 17.0 21.9) 1 22.9 6.5 36.8) QUARTERLY-AV 9.9 7.6 4.5) 1978-2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 10.5 17.3 (19.1) 32.8 7.5 (27.5) MONTHLY 14.1 3.7 -4.6 2.0) 1978-SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. -1.3) NOV.-DEC. WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1978-NOV. DEC. NOTE: 1/ 2/ S5.0) 1 8 15 22 P 29 P 6 P 361.2 362.3 361.4 359.3 358.7 868.2 870.9 870.9 870.1 869.2 19.6 22.1 20.4 23.1 23.5 598.9 602.6 604.9 607.0 606.9 507.1 508.6 509.5 510.7 510.5 222.9 222.9 222.4 221.5 221.1 284.2 285.7 287.1 289.2 289.5 91.8 94.0 95.4 96.3 96.4 360.7 872.1 17.0 607.5 511.5 220.9 290.6 96.1 79.8 73.4 68.2 72.2 76.3 P - PRELIMINARY DAIA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEMAND DEPOSITS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND TREASURY NOTE BALANCES. INCLUDES BORROWINGS FRUM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES MENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), AGREE- 1-A TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Table SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXCEPT AS NOTED erod DEC. Total Business (NSA) ndividual Nonproft 15, 1978 Time Deposits Savings Deposits Total Time and Savings CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC Government (NSA) Total Memo: Large Large Small Negotiable CD's Denomination Denomination 7 OUTSTANDING (I BILLIONS) 205.8 206.3 206.5 206.1 206.0 207.7 209.2 208.7 207.2 561.7 565.? 571.6 574.5 579.4 583.0 589.7 593.6 605.3 221.0 221.6 222.0 221.7 220.9 222.4 224.2 223.9 221.9 55.3 17.7 16.9 2.3 1977--III IV 13.1 17.0 3.9 2.9 4.7 3.3 1978--1 II III 17.3 14.1 13.6 1.4 0.9 0.7 3.5 6.4 2.9 4.9 3.6 6.7 3.9 11.7 0.6 0.4 -0.3 -0.8 1.5 1.8 -0.3 -2.0 197d--NAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPI. O)CT. *UV. CHANGES (4 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.8 166.5 167.5 168.5 170.1 171.3 171.9 173.6 177.0 177.7 82.0 83.4 87.1 86.7 87.4 86.3 88.1 88.2 95.4 340.8 343.6 349.7 352.8 358.5 360.6 365.5 369.7 383.5 174.3 176.1 181.2 182.7 187.2 188.7 191.9 192.7 205.8 -1.6 17.7 23.9 0.4 0.3 -1.2 -0.6 9.2 14.1 5.9 12.7 3.3 1.3 0.7 7.1 1.2 0.9 1.3 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 16.0 13.2 12.8 14.5 10.4 9.3 1.5 2.8 3.6 8.8 6.5 1.6 0.5 0.2 -0.4 -0. 1 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -1.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.4 2.8 6.1 3.1 5.7 2.1 4.9 4.2 13.8 1.8 5.1 1.5 4.5 1.5 3.2 0.8 13.1 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 0.7 1.4 3.7 -0.4 0.7 -1.1 1.8 0.1 7.2 10.5 10.6 LO.t 10.? 10.8 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.0 10.9 9'LLIONS) 1977 YEAR 13.8 11.3 QUARTERLY AVERAGE: MONTHLY AVERAGE: 1978--APR. MAY JUNF JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. A NOTE: COLUMNS (11, (2). AND 19) ON AGGREGATES. FIGURES IN COLUMNS (1), DERIVED FROM DATA REPORTED BY SMALL GOVERNMENIAL UNITS-COLUMNS 14) AND WEDNESDAY BY LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS SHIPS. A I A I A A THIS TABLE CORRESPOND TO COLUMNS (4), (6), AND (8), RESPECTIVELY, ON TABLE I-MONETARY WITH ESTIMATES FOR NONMEMBER BANKS REFLECT DAILY DATA REPORTED BY MEMBER BANKS, (2), AND (6) MEMBER BANKS, BENCHMARKED TO NONMEMBER CALL REPORT FIGURES. SAVINGS DEPOSITS OF BUSINESS AND 151-- AND LARGE DENOMINATION TINE DEPOSITS -- COLUMN (7)--REFLECT BREAKDOWNS REPORTED EACH BLOWN UP TO REPRESENT DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS ON THE BASIS OF CALL REPORT RELATION- NFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS -FOMC TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves DEC. 15, 1978 RESERVES _REQUIRED Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 2 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1978--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 4 0 112 41,172 41,434 41,289 (41,335) 40,156 40,586 (40,674) 139,750 140,782 141,501 (142.441) 11.5 4.6 ( 1.6) ( 3.7 5.0 5.6) 10.4 8.5 S 7.7) ( 1.1 6.2 5.6) 40,979 41,261 41,112 (41,252) 22,845 23,059 22,705 (22,604) 16,740 16,618 16,936 (17,2041 ( 1,394 1,584 1,470 1,4451 PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1978--2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 11.7 4.4 S2.7) ( 10.1 4.4 (11.1) 13.1 8.3 -4.2) QUARTERLY-AV 1976--2ND QTR. 3kD QTR. 4TH QTR. ( 6.6 8.2 2.6) 8.1 9.0 ( 7.2 8.2 S3.0) t.5) 5.0 9.5 S 2.7) ( 11.5 6.6 6.4) MONTHLY 1978-StPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 8.1 7.6 10.7 -4.2 12.8 1.3) 2.6) 12.6 8.9 6.1 8.01 -1.4) 7.7) 7.1) 40,005 40,606 15 22 29 41,310 41,304 41,049 41,361 41,397 6 41,576 NOV.-DEC. 1.3 7.4 b.3 -4.3 4.1) 11.2 -18.4 l -5.3) -0.1) 1 -11.8) 9.2 -8.7 23.0 (19.0) 14.2 1 21.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1978-NOV. 1 8 DEC. NOTE: 40,757 40,606 141,361 140,927 141,072 141,769 142,155 41,197 40,918 40,804 41,306 41,357 23*299 22,556 22,589 22,742 22*856 16,542 16,705 16,875 17,024 17,155 1,356 1,657 1,340 1,540 1,346 40,878 142,215 41,470 22,666 17,230 1,574 40,416 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. 1/ TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES($ million, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ ith iyear Treas ury Coupons Net Puurchases 3/ 5 - 10 1-5 Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 10 Total -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 4,361 1977--Qtr. III Qtr. IV 886 186 1978--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III -2,655 5,444 3,152 4,395 1978--Oct. 4 11 18 25 721 100 Nov. 1 8 15 22 29 -1,667 -2,052 1 - 5 1 vear 5 - 10 Over 10 167 129 196 1,070 642 553 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 4,660 681 628 96 166 128 108 1,021 1,001 247 334 235 2,175 2,246 1,697 135 115 1,057 631 176 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,433 S 87 163 139 108 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 -2,892 4,273 -2,331 34 - - 177 145 707 -643 46 -92 127 -81 104 -- 24 - 301 -173 7,930 4,632 46 127 104 24 301 5,724 2,950 -173 231 1,043 ----------555 - - 3,358 - - 625 ----------1,154 -1,594 -1,265 - 807 1,037 S - -1,133 1,224 266 -2,536 1,701 1,102 -81 S 507 628 - 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 10,035 386 - -92 -- -6,270 5,822 -6,962 6,923 -923 504 716 592 400 1,665 824 469 792 139 -- ---- ---- ---- 628 -- 163 -- 108 -- ---1,037 -- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- -1,672 -2,052 --- --- --- --- --- 1,540 683 -923 6 13 20 27 LEVEL--Dec. 13 /in f4 n j-m 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 758 1,123 1,156 774 -170 -2,151 Oct. Nov. Dec. 116 99 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 2,833 235 283 2,635 July Aug. Sept. Within (FR) Net Change Outright Holdings *l/ TnlInl Total 5/ 1 vear I 1978--June STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 15, 1978 -1,809 -6,663 1,783 2,092 2,643 -10,500 6,851 45.4 10.3 31.6 14.7 10.7 67.3 1.9 3.7 1.5 .9 7.9 120.6 hllinns 114-s Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 15, 1978 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions BsIssues uBillp Member Bank Reserve Positions Underwriting Syndicate Positions Corporate Bonds n Excss**Borrowing at FRB** Reserves Total Seasonal Basic Reserve Deficit** 8 New York Bonds 38 Others 3 Oer 1977--High Low 7,234 1,729 3,017 -1,445 295 0 513 -111 1,861 20 -9,151 -4,234 -13,975 1978--High Low 5,625 278 2,043 -1,076 215 0 719 -227 1,716 172 -8,224 -2,370 -14,657 1977--Nov. Dec. 3,617 4,257 610 804 36 195 251 193 863 570 -6,971 -7,403 -11,825 -11,350 1978--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4,127 3,418 2,713 327 1,492 740 42 24 96 268 243 200 484 406 328 -6,047 -4,980 -6,778 -12,299 -12,603 -11,060 Apr. May June 3,183 1,203 2,847 -183 5 78 46 25 35 149 219 178 557 1,212 1,094 -6,196 -4,038 -4,514 -12,998 -11,653 -12,202 July Aug. Sept. 1,196 1,994 2,571 -626 423 125 51 34 49 197 168 193 1,317 1,139 1,060 -3,651 -4,793 -5,098 -10,204 -11,089 -11,357 1,495 *1,960 -309 *462 16 23 177 8 1 2p 1,277 -4,651 44 8 -3, p -11,551 4 11 18 25 1,676 1,393 1,507 1,255 -19 -369 -528 -290 35 5 24 0 123 367 -119 367 1,286 1,239 1,250 1,314 -5,173 -6,292 -4,918 -3,139 -10,398 -12,406 -13,059 -10,731 1 8 15 22 29 1,786 1,639 1,660 *1,462 *2,004 12 1,032 687 *275 *135 3 0 10 73 30 113 386 245 1,305 698 633 604p 791p -3,843 -4,221 -4,763 -2,519 -2,370 -10,522 -12,872 -13,128 -14,657 -13,585 6 13 20 27 *1,909 *2,520 *-281 64 120p Oct. Nov. 1978--Oct. Nov. Dec. *-83 55 p 40p 6 10 p 4 - p 70 3 6 p 98p p 5 94 48 2 -2, p 4 - ,081p - 8,206 - 8,273 -13,452p - 13 , 33 7p -13,348p NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * ** Strictly confidential. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 15, 1978 Short-Term Federal unds IF Treasury Bills Market 3-mo 1-yr Auction 6-mo CD's New IssueNYC 90-Day Comm. Paper 90-119 ---- Day L----Y- Bank Prime Rate U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 3-yr 7-yr (8) (9) (9) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) 7.99 7.26 8.36 7.90 8.48 7.95 5.93 5.45 9.00 8.65 8.98 8.46 8.39 7.56 8.94 7.72 8.85 8.01 9.30 8.61 9.35 8.48 6.45 5.58 10.35 8.98 10.40 9.13 9.48 8.43 7.22 7.30 7.46 7.59 7.76 7.87 8.28 8.34 8.25 8.38 5.49 5.57 8.92 8.96 8.86 8.94 8.19 8.27 7.93 7.61 7.86 8.14 8.68 8.60 5.71 9.02 9.17 8.56 8.00 8.00 7.67 7.70 7.94 7.95 8.22 8.21 8.69 8.71 8.67 8.67 5.62 5.61 9.15 9.20 9.31 9.35 8.64 8.60 6.82 7.06 7.59 8.00 8.27 8.63 7.85 8.07 8.30 8.06 8.25 8.40 8.32 8.44 8.53 8.90 8.95 9.09 8.85 8.98 9.07 5.80 6.03 6.22 9.36 9.57 9.70 9.44 9.66 9.91 8.71 8.90 9.05 8.00 7.86 8.34 7.85 7.83 8.39 9.00 9.01 9.41 8.54 8.33 8.41 8.55 8.38 8.42 8.69 8.45 8.47 9.14 8.82 8.86 9.18 8.91 8.86 6.28 6.12 6.09 9.74 9.79 9.76 10.01 9.81 9.79 9.15 8.97r 9.04r 8.49 9.20 9.12 10.15 8.98 10.14 9.94 10.94 8.62 9.04 8.64 8.80 8.69 8.75 9.17 9.27 9.13 9.27 6.13 6.19 9.86 10.11 10.03 10.30 9.25r 9.39r 8.38 8.42 8.56 8.61 8.75 9.13 9.21 9.38 8.64 8.83 8.97 9.09 9.75 9.75 10.00 10.00 8.50 8.47 8.57 8.69 8.56 8.52 8.63 8.69 8.64 8.61 8.67 8.73 9.04 9.03 9.15 9.24 6.07 6.10 6.14 6.21 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.88 9.91 9.19r 9.19r 9.19r 9.19r 8.98 9.42 9.29 9.00 9.33 10.00 10.00 10.25 10.25 10.25 9.33 10.01 10.24 10.21 10.15 10.25 10.61 10.75 10.96 11.43 9.12 9.10 8.95 8.96 9.16 8.82 8.84 8.76 8.78 8.88 8.80 8.80 8.72 8.72 8.78 9.28 9.30 9.24 9.25 9.28 6.22 6.17 6.11 6.16 6.29 9.90 10.05 10.20 10.28 10.30 10.20 10.33 9.48r 9.39r 9.40r 9.35r 9.43r 9.31 9.35p 6,29 6.45 10.35 n.a. -10.40 9.39r 9.43 (7) 6.70 4.50 6.66 4.63 7.75 6.25 7.39 5.83 7.70 6.59 9.42 6.42 10.38 6.65 10.27 6.68 11.50 7.75 9.18 7.40 6.52 6.52 6.43 6.38 6.56 6.65 6.54 6.61 7.75 7.75 6.44 6.80 6.68 6.82 6.75 6.45 6.29 6.86 6.82 6.74 6.64 6.77 6.73 6.76 6.75 June 6.89 7.36 7.60 6.29 6.41 6.73 6.96 7.28 7.53 6.70 7.02 7.20 6.84 7.20 7.66 July Aug. Sept. 7.81 8.04 8.45 7.01 7.08 7.85 7.79 7.73 8.01 7.47 7.36 7.95 Oct. Nov. 8.96 9.76 7.99 8.64 8.45 9.20 8.85 8.71 8.78 9.24 8.03 8.17 7.91 7.67 8.19 8.27 8.37 8.48 (1) (3) (4) (5) 6.65 4.47 6.27 4.41 6.62 4.67 6.51 4.56 1978--High Low 9.87 6.58 8.98 6.16 9.32 6.55 1977--Nov. Dec. 6.51 6.56 6.10 6.07 1978--Jan. Feb. Mar. 6.70 6.78 6.79 Low Apr. May 1978--Oct. 4 11 18 25 Nov. Dec, 8.35 8.85 8.38 8.36 8.98 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 () (10) Home Mortgages rimary Secondar Market ConPry FNMA GNMA Sec. 11) (6) (2) 1977--High 20-yr .ong-Term Corp.-Aaa Mun p Utility Munil N ew Recently Bod Offered yAuc. ( sue (FR) (8) 9.87 9.79 8.93 8.90 9.29 9.27 9.22 9.26 10.25 10.38 10.25 10.27 11.50 11.50 9,12 9.18 p 8,86 8.94p 8.79 8.85p 9.80 83 9. p 8.90 8.90 9.32 9.25 -- -- 10.25 10.30 11.50 11.50 9.13 9 9.1 p 8.89 6 8.9 p 8.79 8 8 . 7p 9.28 9.30p 9.98 10.27 20 27 Daily--Dec. 7 14 NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 are statement week averages of daily data. Weekly data in column 4 are average rates set in the auctions of For columns 8 through 6-month bills that will be issued on the Thursday following the end of the statement week. Data in column 5 are 1-day Wednesday quotes. 11, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 12 and 13 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 14 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 15 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 16 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA GNMA yields are average net auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current PHA/VA ceiling. DEC. 15, 1978 Appendix Table 1-A Money and Credit Aggregate Measures Bank Reserves Period Total NonTotaborrowed 1 Money Stock Measures Bank Monetary Base Total Loans and Invest- MI M-2 M ments 1 1975 1976 1977 2 3 4 M-3 C. M-4 C- M-5 I. M-6 M It 1 5 0 I o (PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH) -0.6 0.7 5.3 2.6 0.8 3.1 5.6 6.7 3.3 3.9 8.0 11.3 4.6 5.8 7.9 6.8 12.6 9.3 8.4 10.9 9.8 11.1 12.8 11.7 6.6 7.1 10.1 9.7 10.3 11.8 10.5 9.9 11.6 9.8 10.0 11.6 2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 2NO HALF 1977 1977 3.8 6.8 3.2 2.9 1.3 9.0 11.3 10.7 7.8 7.8 1.8 7.4 10.1 9.1 11.4 11.4 9.4 10.3 10.8 12.1 10.2 12.3 10.4 12.2 1ST HALF 1978 7.8 7.8 9.0 12.7 8.1 5.9 7.4 7.8 10.3 9.5 9.5 10.9 OTR. 1977 7.5 8.2 9.6 9.5 6.6 4.7 7.2 9.3 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.7 1ST jTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 1978 1978 1978 6.3 11.5 4.6 8.9 3.7 5.0 8.0 10.4 8.5 10.4 17.0 8.7 5.2 11.5 9.2 4.3 7.7 7.5 6.5 8.8 10.4 7.0 8.4 11.8 9.6 10.0 10.0 8.9 9.2 11.5 d.9 9.1 10.8 10.5 10.2 10.8 QUARTERLY: 4rH QUAKTERLY-AV: 4TH 3TR. 1977 6.3 J.8 9.0 9.9 7.5 0.8 8.1 LO.6 10.8 12.2 12.7 12.7 IST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 1978 1978 1978 8.8 6.6 8.2. 14.4 1.1 62 9.7 8.1 9.0 10.1 14.9 10.8 6.2 9.9 7.6 4.9 6.9 5.3 6.9 7.9 8.9 1.7 7.8 10.1 10.3 10.1 8.8 9.8 9.1 9.9 9.9 8.9 9.0 11.3 10.2 9.4 6.2 6.7 20.7 16.1 8.3 10.5 9.2 6.3 1.1 8.2 0.4 5.4 6.0 6.1 8.1 7.9 11.8 9.9 11.5 10.1 12.1 9.7 12.8 11.0 14.8 10.6 -6.6 8.9 10.2 14.9 14.0 -8.2 8.1 7.6 -4.2 17.8 13.2 -4.3 2.0 -9.6 19.0 7.6 -3.2 10.7 1.3 12.8 13.4 6.9 3.4 7.7 12.0 11.1 8.5 4.2 12.6 8.9 6.1 14.4 8.5 7.9 19.9 16.6 13.7 11.0 5.1 9.7 9.8 6.5 11.3 0.4 3.9 19.6 7.2 7.5 4.8 8.5 14.1 3.7 -4.6 9.4 0.8 2.5 13.6 5.4 4.0 1.5 8.7 12.2 1.8 -7.1 9.5 4.7 5.1 11.2 7.1 7.8 8.0 10.4 12.5 7.0 4.3 9.2 5.6 6.2 9.5 7.2 8.4 9.4 11.7 14.0 10.0 6.8 11.8 8.5 8.3 11.9 11.2 6.6 8.Z 8.0 13.7 6.4 12.9 10,6 7.9 8.0 10.2 9.6 7.6 9.4 10.2 14.6 9.5 12.0 11.3 7.8 7.4 10.2 9.7 7.2 7.6 9.2 15.4 7.9 11.2 12.7 9.4 9.0 11.4 10.7 8.2 8.0 8.9 15.0 7.9 11.1 2 MONTHLY: 1977--NOV. DEC. 1978--JAN. FE8. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. P 1/ 2/ P - BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. PRELIMINARY DEC. Appendix Table 1-B 15, 1978 Money and Credit Aggregate Measures Seasonally Adjusted, Billions of Dollars Bank Reserves -1B Period Total borrowed borrowed Monetary Base Base 1 2 3 Non- k Money Stock MeasureB Money Stock Measures Credit Total Loans and and Investments 4 M-1 M-l+ M-2 M-3 M-4 M-5 M-6 M-7 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ANNUALLY: 36,643 37,050 38,961 36,513 36,996 38,391 113,019 120,671 130,789 726.2 788.9 875.5 295.2 313.5 338.5 456.4 516.8 560.2 664.7 740.5 809.5 1092.5 1236.5 1376.1 746.1 803.2 883.5 1173.8 1299.2 1450.1 1307.4 1437.6 1604.3 1350.7 1485.4 1660.5 1977--MOV. DEC. 38,744 38,961 37,882 38,391 129,650 130,789 870.9 875.5 336.2 338.5 557.7 560.2 805.4 809.5 1367.1 1376.1 876.3 883.5 1438.0 1450.1 1591.4 1604.3 1645.4 1660.5 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. 39,443 39,793 39,573 38,959 39,387 39,245 132,252 133,017 133,390 886.0 892.3 898.6 341.7 341.8 342.9 564.6 565.0 566.2 815.9 819.1 822.6 1386.6 1393.1 1400.3 892.2 898.5 904.7 1462.9 1472.5 1482.3 1619.4 1629.9 1639.9 1678.1 1691.3 1704.0 APR. MAY JUNE 39,868 40,208 40,706 39,311 38,936 39,612 134,251 135,596 136,854 913.5 926.1 936.7 348.5 350.6 352.8 572.6 575.2 577.1 830.3 835.2 840.6 1411.4 1419.9 1429.8 913.7 922.2 927.3 1494.9 1506.9 1516.5 1653.8 1667.1 1677.1 1720.2 1735.5 1747.4 JULY AUG. SEPT. 41,180 40,897 41,172 39,863 39,757 40,112 137,822 138,302 139,750 945.3 949.3 957.0 354.2 356.7 360.9 577.8 582.0 587.9 846.2 853.5 862.4 1441.0 1455.1 1472.1 933.6 939.8 950.5 1528.4 1541.4 1560.2 1687.7 1700.6 1722.4 1759.1 1772.2 1794.4 P 41,434 41,289 40,156 40,586 140,782 141,501 964.8 970.0 362.0 360.6 588.8 585.3 867.4 870.5 1484.4 1492.8 955.6 965.9 1572.5 1588.2 1733.8 1750.0 1806.2 1822.9 11 18 25 41,533 41,520 41,218 40,294 40,270 39,904 140,424 140,918 140,538 364.3 364.3 358.8 591.6 591.1 585.3 869.4 869.3 865.2 955.8 956.2 954.1 NOV. 1 8 15 22P 29P 41,310 41,304 41,049 41,361 41,397 40,005 40,606 40,416 40,757 40,606 141,361 140,927 141,072 141,769 142,155 361.2 362.3 361.4 359.3 358.7 586.9 58d.1 586.7 583.7 582.6 868.2 870.9 870.9 870.1 869.2 960.0 964.9 966.3 966.3 965.6 DEC. 6P 41,576 40,878 142,215 360.7 584.4 872.1 968.2 1975 1976 1977 MONTHLY: OCT. NOV. WEEKLY: 1978-OCT. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. DATA SHOWN IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. P PRELIMINARY NOTES: AVAILABLE FO DEC. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 15, 1978 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period 5 6 7 8 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 2/ ANNUALLY: 1975 1976 1977 7.9 8.0 11.4 11.7 15.0 11.2 17.5 25.0 11.1 7.8 7.4 11.4 -6.4 -23.4 12.8 15.3 15.5 14.2 19.5 18.8 19.4 33.6 7. 1 12.6 -7.0 11.9 13.4 8.9 13.3 0.6 24.9 12.9 14.5 16.6 20.6 2.6 22.3 15.9 10.1 2, SEMi-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 1977 2Nj HALF 1977 8.7 9.8 7.4 7.1 10.4 11.8 11.9 10.0 15.3 6.4 1ST HALF 9.6 7.7 11.7 6.9 2.1 11.1 43.5 7.6 17.4 12.0 51.9 1977 10.7 5.4 14.5 7.7 1.5 13.5 64.0 11.6 18.8 23.5 32.2 1ST QTR. 1978 2NO QTR. 1978 3RD QTR. 1978 QUARTERLY-AV: 9.5 9.3 10.3 3.8 12.0 8.9 12.3 9.1 10.6 7.4 6.8 11.3 2.6 1.3 4.5 11.5 11.4 17.0 43.2 22.9 6.5 6.9 7.3 13.8 17.9 14.7 15.0 11.3 9.5 3.4 55.4 39.3 9.1 4TH QTR. 1977 10.3 6.4 13.0 8.5 5.4 11.6 44.9 13.9 20.0 29.7 12.9 1ST QTR. 1978 2ND QTR. 1978 3RD QTR. 1978 10.5 8.4 9.6 5.0 10.3 7.0 12.8 10.1 9.5 7.3 6.4 10.0 2.6 1.6 1.3 11.4 10.5 17.3 50.0 32.8 7.5 8.1 6.8 11.4 18.2 15.8 13.6 16.2 7.5 -3.0 52.3 45.6 19.3 1977--NOV. DEC. 8.3 12.3 -1.0 6.8 18.5 10.9 9.5 4.6 -1.1 1.1 18.0 8.7 81.3 52.5 11.0 9.5 15.8 18.2 25.4 7.8 31.9 51.1 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNF JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. P 10.8 9.4 8.0 6.6 11.8 9.1 6.5 9.0 15.3 10.1 10.0 11.0 -2.4 2.9 23.8 5.6 6.5 4.6 8.7 13.2 1.8 12.3 13.3 10.8 7.5 13.6 6.1 10.2 7.5 13.8 7.9 23.7 8.4 7.6 6.0 5.3 6.7 8.2 10.3 11.5 11.8 9.1 10.7 6.0 1.1 0.5 3.3 2.2 -1.6 -4.3 8.1 9.7 -1.6 -10.7 10.0 13.2 10.8 6.5 11.5 16.0 22.5 14.2 13.6 17.7 28.1 37.3 48.8 39.3 20.5 53.2 -5.5 9.7 -15.1 25.0 1.4 98.0 7.8 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.8 8.5 11.1 14.4 15.5 14.9 10.9 17.9 15.2 20.0 14.7 12.1 16.8 11.8 11.7 20.9 6.8 4.5 29.4 9.1 -4.5 13.5 13.4 1.5 -23.5 -7.5 42.2 -17.5 4.4 51.2 55.2 52.8 43.1 34.3 36.9 17.0 3.4 6.7 6.7 8.3 1978 QUARTERLY: 4TH OTR. MONTHLY: =- 1/ aII -10.4 I II--- a _~ - . a GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. - a I *- . DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF APPENDIX TABLE 2-B DEC. 15, 1978 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Currency Demand Deposits Period Mutual Bank & S&L Savings Other Than CD's Total Credit Union Savings Shares Bonds 1_ Sharesi ShortTerm U*g Govt Sec Other Private 11 Non- Total 12 13 14 34.4 51.0 62.0 9.5 12.6 13.0 Shortterm Assets Total Savings Other 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 160.5 201.9 219.6 209.1 225.1 251.5 81.3 394.9 456.9 519.8 33.0 39.1 46.8 67.2 71.9 76.6 66.3 74.0 77.6 43.3 47.8 56.3 Gov't Deposit Funds Demand Deposts 1 2 3 73.7 80.7 88.6 221.5 232.8 249.9 450.9 489.7 545.0 MONTHLY: 1977--NOV. DEC. 87.7 88.6 248.5 249.9 540.1 545.0 469.2 471.0 219.4 219.6 249.7 251.5 70.9 74.0 515.7 519.8 46.1 46.8 76.2 76.6 77.1 77.6 54.0 56.3 60.1 62.0 8.0 13.0 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. 89.4 90.1 90.7 252.2 251.7 252.3 550.6 556.7 561.7 474.3 477.3 479.7 220.7 220.9 221.0 253.6 256.4 258.7 76.3 79.4 32.0 523.2 525.9 528.8 47.5 77.0 77.4 77.8 79.5 48.9 80.1 79.8 50.7 61.4 64.1 64.9 65.5 65.4 10.8 8.5 9.1 APR. MAY JUNE 91.2 92.1 92.8 257.3 258.5 259.9 565.2 571.6 574.5 481.8 221.6 484.5 487.8 222.0 221.7 260. 262.6 266.1 83.4 87.1 86.7 531.7 534.7 538.5 49.5 50.0 50.7 78.2 78.6 78.9 80.7 81.6 81.7 66.4 68.3 70.4 65.7 66.2 66.4 9.6 8.2 12.9 JULY AUG. SEPT. 93.3 94.0 95.2 260.9 262.8 265.7 579.4 583.0 589.7 492.0 496.7 271.1 274.3 277.4 87.4 86.3 88.1 543.5 550.0 557.1 51.2 51.7 52.6 79.3 79.5 79.8 80.1 501.6 220.9 222.4 224.2 82.4 71.4 71.6 72.0 66.7 68.8 69.8 15.5 16.1 17.4 OCT. NOV.P 96.0 96.8 266.1 263.8 593.6 505.4 509.9 223.9 221.9 281.5 288.1 88.2 95.4 564.0 569.1 52.9 53.1 80.1 80.3 81.2 81.5 72.4 72.9 74.9 73.2 21.2 21.7 11 18 25 95.7 96.0 95.8 268.5 268.3 263.0 591.5 592.0 595.3 505.1 505.0 224.5 224.0 223.7 280.7 281.0 282.6 86.4 87.0 89.0 71.6 74.3 76.6 21.4 24.1 22.0 1 8 15 22P 29P 96.5 96.4 96.6 96.9 97.0 264.6 265.9 264.8 262.4 261.7 598.9 602.6 604.9 607.0 606.9 507.1 509.5 510.7 510.5 222.9 222.9 222.4 221.5 221.1 284.2 285.7 287.1 289.2 289.5 91.8 94.0 95.4 96.3 96.4 79.8 73.4 68.2 72.2 76.3 19.6 22.1 20.4 23.1 23.5 6P 97.2 263.5 607.5 511.5 220.9 290.6 96.1 ANNUALLY: 1975 1976 1977 605.3 369.6 427.0 471.0 62.7 48.1 66.5 79.6 WEEKLY: 1978-0CT. NOV. DEC. I / 2/ 3/ 4/ P - 506.3 508.6 ESTIMAE MUNHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DE RIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIDUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SFCUR17Y RP6S AND MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND SHARES. BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHFR LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, ANO OTHER MINOR ITEMS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEMAND DEPOSITS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND TREASURY NOTE BALANCES. PRELIMINARY 17.0 

Federal Reserve (1978, December 18). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19781219

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19781219,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1978},
  month = {Dec},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19781219},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}