Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. 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Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC October 13, 1978 _ MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System October 13, 1978 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M-1 growth surged to a 14.1 per cent annual rate in September, but appears to be slowing in October on the basis of data for the early part of the month. Over September and October M-1 is now projected to rise at about a 9 per cent rate, at the upper end of the FOMC's range. M-2 appears to be increasing at about a 10 per cent annual rate in the September-October period, just below the upper end of the FOMC's range. Both savings and small time deposits grew sur- prisingly rapidly at banks in September, and growth in total deposits at thrift institutions accelerated further to about a 15-1/2 per cent annual rate. Sales of the new money market certificates by banks and thrift institutions remained large last month, in total matching the August pace. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over September-October Period Ranges M-1 5 to 9 M-2 6-1/2 to 10-1/2 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) (2) 8-1/4 to 8-3/4 Latest Estimates 8.9 10.0 Avg. for statement week ending Sept. 20 8.36 27 8.62 Oct. 4 8.85 11 8.71 Following the September FOMC meeting, incoming data suggested that M-1 growth would be around the upper end, and M-2 growth -2in the upper half, of their respective short-run ranges. Management responded by raising its 8-3/4 per cent, The Account Federal funds rate objective to the upper end of the Committee's range. The discount rate was raised 1/4 point to 8 per cent on September 22 and was again raised to 8-1/2 per cent after the close of business Friday, October 13. Member bank borrowing has averaged from $1-1/4 to $1-1/2 billion during the past three statement weeks. (3) Prior to the latest discount rate increase, most short- term interest rates had increased another 20 to 50 basis points from the September FOMC meeting, as the market reacted to the further increases in the Federal funds rate and to the continued strength in published monetary aggregate data. however, The 3-month Treasury bill rate, dropped back sharply to around 7-3/4 per cent--below its level at the time of the September meeting--as foreign demand for bills were relatively strong and the Treasury continued to emphasize 6-month bills in the regular weekly refundings. In after-hours trading on Friday, following the latest discount rate action, Treasury bill rates rose 10 to 15 basis points. (4) Yields on long-term Treasury and corporate securities also moved higher over the inter-meeting period--generally by 20 to 30 basis points as of the close of business on Friday--as interest rate expectations appeared to shift in response not only to the further rise in short rates, but also to the persistence of rapid inflation and to signs that economic activity might be stronger over coming months than some had anticipated. These recent increases left long-term Treasury and corporate yields somewhat below their highs for the current expansion reached in mid-July, even though the funds rate had risen 100 basis points since that time. In contrast to yields on other long- term bonds, yields on municipal issues remained essentially unchanged during recent weeks, owing in part to a sharp decline in advance refundings by State and local units. (5) Growth in commercial bank credit picked up somewhat in September, as investments and security loans rose after declining in August. Real estate and business loans expanded at just below the average rates observed since late spring, and the bank prime rate rose to 10 per cent. Average rates charged by S&Ls on new home loan commitments also have edged up of late, despite enlarged deposits flows and reduced borrowing from Home Loan Banks, as the cost of obtaining funds through the 6-month money market certificate has risen further. Mortgage credit demands apparently remain strong, and loan takedowns and commitments rose at S&Ls in August. (6) The table on the next page shows percentage annual rates of change in related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. -4- 1976 & 1977 Average Past Twelve Months Sept. '78 over Sept. '77 Past Six Months Sept. '78 over Mar. '78 Past Three Months Sept. '78 over June '78 Nonborrowed reserves 2.5 6.4 4.3 5.3 11.3 Total reserves 3.2 7.5 8.2 4.8 8.4 Monetary Base 7.7 9.4 9.6 8.6 12.7 6.9 8.4 10.5 9.2 14.1 10.4 8.5 9.7 10.4 12.5 12.3 9.4 10.2 11.7 13.7 M-4 (M-2 plus CD's) 8.6 10.7 10.1 10.0 13.7 M-5 (M-3 plus CD's) 11.1 10.7 10.5 11.4 14.3 Month-end basis 9.8 11.3 12.3 10.7 9.9 Monthly average 9.5 11.1 10.8 9.7 9.7 -0.4 2.0 1.0 0.5 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 Past Months Sept. '78 over Aug. '78 Concepts of Money M-1 (Currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M-2 (M-1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (7) Alternative longer-run growth ranges for the monetary aggregates over the one-year QIII '78 to QIII '79 period are shown below for Committee consideration. M-1 ranges shown in the top line reflect staff estimates of the expected shift from demand deposits to savings deposits over the year ahead as a result of the introduction of the automatic transfer service (ATS) on November 1, while M-1 ranges that abstract from the estimated impact of ATS are shown in parentheses in the second line. The upper limits of the ranges on the top line are noticeably lower than those on the second line because the staff believes that some significant shift from demand to savings deposits as a result of ATS will almost assuredly occur, as explained in paragraph 8; the ranges of the top line are relatively wide to allow for the uncertain size of this shift. Alternative B is based on the same growth rate range for M-1 as adopted by the Committee in July for the QII '78 to QII '79 period, while alternatives A and C encompass, respectively, more and less expansion of M-1. For reasons to be discussed later, the M-2 and M-3 ranges in nearly all cases have been raised relative to current ranges. Alt. A M-1 (M-1, as if no ATS) M-2 M-3 Bank Credit ½ to 6 (5 to 7½) 7½ to 10 Alt. B Alt. C Current Ranges -½ to 5 -1½ to 4 (4 to 6½) (3 to 5½) (4 to 6½ to 9 6½ to 9 7 to 9½ 9 to 11½ 8½ to 11 8 to 10½ 7½ to 10 9 to 12 8½ to 11 8 to 11 8½ to 11½ 6 to 8½ 5 to 7½ 4 to 6½ Addendum: M-l+ 1/ 1/ 6½) M-1+ is defined as M-1 plus savings deposits at commercial banks, NOW accounts at thrifts, credit union share drafts, and demand deposits at MSBs. See appendix V of the September Bluebook. -6- (8) Over the QIII '78-QIII '79 policy period, the staff projects that ATS would reduce M-1 growth by between 1½ and 4½ percentage points. The upper end of this range assumes that some- thing less than 20 per cent of the nearly $95 billion of eligible demand deposits shift to savings deposits in the first year of ATS, while the lower end assumes something less than 10 per cent shifts. While uncertainties are, of course, vast, the upper end of the range is comparable to first year experience with NOW accounts in the four New England states that were permitted to offer such accounts in early 1976. Transfers under present circumstances may be slower because of the absence of competition from thrifts, which was present in New England. However, it would appear that bank pricing of the ATS will make such service quite attractive for large deposit holders, who account for a major share of eligible deposits. (9) Given the degree of uncertainty regarding the size of the distortion in M-1 produced by automatic transfers, the staff also proposes that the Committee consider the desirability of supplementing, at least for a transition period, the other monetary measures with the aggregate "M-l+", which will not be affected by shifts between demand and savings deposits at banks and should provide useful collateral evidence about the strength of the 1/ transactions demand for money.- This aggregate--defined as M-1 plus savings deposits at commercial banks, NOW accounts at thrifts, credit union share drafts, and demand deposits at MSB's--was discussed in appendix V of the September Bluebook. The addendum to the table 1/ It would, of course, be affected by shifts from deposits at savings institutions to commercial bank ATS accounts. Such shifts should be relatively modest. We have assumed a shift of $2 billion, which adds .4 of a percentage point to growth in M-1+ over the QIII '78-QIII '79 period. in paragraph (7) shows M-1+ ranges thought to be consistent with the other aggregates. (10) The demand for transactions balances is expected to remain quite strong over the new QIII '78 to QIII '79 policy period, with nominal GNP projected to rise at almost an 11 per cent annual rate. Thus, a further rise in the Federal funds rate appears needed under alternatives B and C if growth in the aggregates is to be held within their ranges. Even under alternative A, some further increase in the funds rate might well be required. Staff projections of the funds rate for each alternative are shown in appendix I. (11) Under alternative B, we would expect the Federal funds rate to level off in a 9 to 10¼ per cent range by early next year if M-1 growth over the QIII '78-QIII '79 period is to be at around the upper end of a 4 to 6½ per cent range, abstracting from the effects of ATS.1/ This represents an upward adjustment in the level of interest rates forecast by the staff. The interest rate forecast might have been expected to decline because alternative B in effect forgives the "overshoot" in M-1 growth during the third quarter and, hence, does not imply as low a rate of monetary growth over the next few quarters as it did earlier. However, our previous interest rate forecast assumed a fairly significant downward shift in M-1 demand relative to income. There has been no evidence of such a shift in recent quarters, and without the restraint of even higher interest rates than earlier projected it appears that growth in M-1 (or M-1+) would run above the 1/ Allowing for the ATS effect on M-1, and given the 1½ to 4½ per cent range of probable ATS effect, M-1 growth in a 2 to 5 per cent range after ATS would be economically equivalent to 6½ per cent ex-ATS. -8alternative B range. Even so it should be noted that our new interest rate estimates still assume some renewed downward drift in M-1 demand, apart from the effects of automatic transfers.1 / (12) The longer-run ranges for M-2 and M-3 have been raised relative to M-1. Thus, under alternative B, M-2 growth for the year ahead is expected to be in a 7 to 9½ per cent range and M-3 growth in an 8 to 11 per cent range, ½ and 1 percentage point higher than current longer-run ranges. The M-2 range was raised to take account of the recent somewhat more rapid growth in time deposits other than large CD's and to allow for a modest shift from deposits at thrift institutions to ATS accounts at banks.2/ The range for M-3 was raised more substantially in recognition of the apparent ability, and also willingness, of savings institutions, especially S&L's, to raise substantial amounts of new money through the 6-month money market certificate. Of course, net inflows of deposits to thrifts should slow from its recent pace in the months ahead, as rising interest rates further moderate inflows of deposits subject to fixed rate-ceilings, the effects of the stock adjustment from other financial assets wane, and depository institutions perhaps 1/ Appendix II displays projected velocity changes, with and without automatic transfers in the case of M-1. 2/ The $2 billion shift that we have assumed would increase M-2 growth by about ¼ percentage point over the QIII '78 QIII '79 period. become less aggressive in offering the new certificates as the spread continues to narrow between their deposit costs and mortgage rates. (13) The longer-run alternative C ranges encompass growth rates for M-2 and M-3 nearer to those currently in place. In addition, alternative C calls for a slower longer-run growth in M-1--in a 3 to 5 per cent range, abstracting from ATS. Growth around the upper end of that range would tend to compensate for the "overshoot" in M-1 expansion over the first three quarters of this year and would lead to about a 6 per cent annual rate of growth from the end of 1977 through the third quarter of 1979, as may be seen in the bottom line of appendix III-1. (14) Two alternative short-run specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate believed to be generally consistent with the longer-run proposals for the aggregates are presented below for Committee consideration. Alternative I contemplates a Federal funds rate range centered on the current 8¾ per cent level, while Alternative II calls for a rise in the funds rate to 9¼ per cent. No easing alternative for the short-run is presented because all proposed longer-run ranges involve either stable or rising interest rates over the next several months. are shown in tables on pages 10 (More detailed and longer-run data and 11; the numbers in parentheses in those tables show estimates abstracting from the effect of ATS). -10Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-1+ Alt. A 1978 Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 360.9 362.0 363.3 (364.2) 360.9 362.0 363.3 360.9 588.0 588.0 588.0 361.9 (364.2) 363.3 (363.9) 589.5 593.2 589.5 593.2 589.3 592.6 862.4 867.8 874.0 862.4 867.8 874.0 862.4 867.4 873.2 QIV 357.3 363.2 (364.2) 357.3 363.1 (364.1) 357.3 362.8 (363.8) 582.6 593.1 582.6 593.0 582.6 592.4 854.0 874.0 854.0 873.9 854.0 873.1 QI QII QIII 365.9 (370.5) 368.8 (376.7) 372.2 (383.2) 364.3 366.1 368.6 (368.9) (374.0) (379.6) 363.0 (367.6) 363.4 (371.3) 365.0 (376.0) 603.8 614.2 625.0 601.4 609.9 619.2 599.2 892.7 911.6 931.2 890.8 908.1 888.7 904.3 921.2 September October November 1978 1979 M-2 QIII 605.7 613.4 926.4 Growth Rates Monthly: 1978 October November 3.7 4.3 (7.3) (7.3) 3.3 3.6 3.1 7.5 (6.6) 7.5 8.6 7.0 8.0 8.9 Quarterly Average: 1978 QIV 6.6 (7.7) 6.5 (7.6) 6.2 (7.3) 7.2 9.4 1979 QI QII 3.0 (6.9) 3.2 (6.7) 3.7 (6.9) 1.3 (5.3) 2.0 (5.5) 2.7 (6.0) 0.2 (4.2) 0.4 (4.0) 1.8 (5.1) 7.2 6.9 7.0 8.6 8.5 8.6 4.8 (7.4) 3.4 (6.9 3.9 (6.5) 2.4 (5.8) 3.2 (5.8) 1.1 (4.6) 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.9 4.2 (7.2) 3.2 (6.2) 2.2 (5.2) 7.3 6.3 QIII 7.7 7.8 8.1 7.1 7.0 7.5 Semi-Annual: QIII '78-QI '79 QI '79-QIII '79 9.1 8.6 8.1 7.3 Annual: QIII '78-QIII '79 5.3 9.0 8.5 7.9 -11Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M-3 Bank Credit Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1978 September October November 1471.7 1485.2 1498.9 1471.7 1485.2 1498.9 1471.7 1484.8 1498.0 946.9 955.1 964.5 946.9 955.1 964.0 946.9 955.1 963.5 1978 QIII 1455.9 1498.7 1455.9 1498.5 1455.9 1497.7 939.9 964.0 939.9 963.6 939.9 963.2 1536.6 1571.8 1607.8 1534.5 1567.4 1601.0 1531.9 1562.4 1593.9 989.7 1015.3 1040.4 988.6 1013.6 1037.6 987.5 1011.9 1034.8 11.0 11.1 11.0 11.1 10.7 10.7 10.4 11.8 10.4 11.2 11.7 11.5 10.3 10.1 9.1 8.0 8.1 10.7 10.3 9.9 10.4 10.1 9.5 10.1 9.9 9.1 QIV 1979 QI QII QIII Growth Rates Monthly 1978 October November 10.4 10.6 Quarterly Average: 1978 QIV 11.8 1979 QI 10.1 9.2 9.2 QII QIII 9.6 8.6 8.6 Semi-Annual: QIII '78-QI '79 QI '69-QIII '79 11.1 9.3 10.8 8.7 10.4 8.1 10.6 10.2 10.4 9.9 10.1 9.6 10.4 10.0 9.5 10.7 10.4 10.1 Annual: QIII '78-QIII '79 -12Alt. I Alt. II Ranges for Oct.-Nov. M-1 1 to 7 ½ to 6½ (M-1 without ATS) (3½ to 7½ ) (3 to 7) M-2 6 to 10 5½ to 9½ M-1+ 3 to 7 2½ to 6½ Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period) 8½ to 9 9 to 9½ Addendum: (15) For the Committee's convenience, and in case of an adverse court finding, the short-run specifications include M-1 both with and without the impact of automatic transfers. The supplementary aggregate M-1+ is also shown should the Committee wish to provide additional quantitative guidance for the Desk in the transitional period. In developing our estimate for M-1 including the effect of ATS, we have assumed that $900 million are shifted from demand to ATS accounts on average in November, with a range of error of plus or minus $600 million. This works out to an effect on M-1 over the two month Oct-Nov. period of ½ to 2½ percentage points at an annual rate. Over this period M-1 can be expected to grow in a 1 to 7 per cent annual rate range (or 3½ to 7½ per cent) abstracting from ATS). A sizable build-up in Treasury cash balances may be a factor holding down M-1 growth in October, but in November -13M-1 expansion is expected to resume at close to the average pace thus far this year (apart from the effect of ATS).1/ (16) Expansion in M-2 under Alternative I is likely to be in a 6 to 10 per cent annual rate range over the October-November period. The interest-bearing component of M-2 will, of course, be buoyed by shifts from demand to automatic transfer savings accounts, and growth of the remaining savings and time deposits included in this aggregate is expected to slow only somewhat from its recent strong pace. Although inflows to nontransferable savings accounts are expected to slow sharply from the recent surprisingly rapid pace, sales of 6-month certificates and large denomination time deposits are likely to continue to support time deposit growth at a rate close to recent levels. (17) The continued surprising strength of thrift deposits is also likely to be sustained in October as these institutions, through the issuance of 6-month certificates, capture a larger than normal portion of the sizable volume of longer-term certificates maturing this month at banks and thrifts. Growth in thrift deposit inflows seems likely to begin slowing by November, though remaining considerably stronger than in the first half of the year. (18) If the Federal funds rate remains around its current level of 8¾ per cent over the intermeeting period and published 1/ The relationship between current levels of M-1, as well as other monetary aggregates, and the FOMC's longer-run ranges are shown in the set of charts attached after p. 18. -14growth of the monetary aggregates moderates as the staff projects, other short-term interest rates are also likely to change little. Business demands for short-term credit probably will continue at the more moderate third quarter level, and the Treasury is not expected to be tapping the bill market for new money until late in the year. (19) Under alternative I, yields on longer-term securities also are likely to show little further change in the near-term, abstracting from possible expectational effects of any new Administration wage-price program. Oncoming supplies of new corporate and municipal securities are expected to remain relatively moderate, and given recent foreign central bank acquisitions of nonmarketable Treasury securities, the Treasury's need to raise new cash in the market over the fourth quarter has been reduced somewhat further. In its mid-November refunding--to be announced October 25--the Treasury is expected to roll over $4.6 billion of maturing debt and to raise around $1½ to 2 billion of new money. Following thisoperation, the Treasury probably will need to raise only about $7 billion of new money in the coupon market over the remainder of the fourth quarter. (20) Alternative II calls for an increase in the Federal funds rate to around the mid-point of a 9 to 9½ per cent range during the intermeeting period. This alternative appears particularly appropriate if the Committee opts for the slower longer-run growth in the aggregates encompassed by alternative C. It would also be consistent with the longer-run policy stance indexed by alternative B, as well as with near-term efforts to support the dollar in exchange markets. The tightening of the funds market over the weeks ahead -15envisaged by alternative II would--by introducing restraint earlier-increase the likelihood that the funds rate would not have to rise into the upper part of the 9 to 10¼ per cent range projected for next year under alternative B. (21) Under alternative II, M-1 growth, including the effect of automatic transfers, would likely be in a ½ to 6½ per cent annual rate range over the October-November period, M-2 in a 5½ to 9½ per cent range, and M-1+ in a 2½ to 6½ per cent range. The additional interest rate pressure would slow the growth of non-transferable savings deposits and time deposits subject to fixed rate-ceilings, but the effects of this slowing on the total interest-bearing components of M-2 and M-3 may be dampened by issuance of 6-month certificates and, at banks, large denomination time deposits. (22) The percentage point increase in the funds rate contemplated under alternative II would place further upward pressure on other short- and long-term interest rates. The bond markets appear to be in a strong technical position, with dealer inventories light and the forward calendar of new offerings moderate, but such a rise in the funds rate, coupled with the recent discount rate action, is likely to carry long rates back above the early July peaks. Mortgage market conditions are likely to tighten further as the effective cost of the 6-month money market certificate moves up to close to 9½ per cent, and thrifts become somewhat more cautious in their lending attitudes. -16Directive language (23) Given below are suggested operational paragraphs for the directive. Alternative language consistent with the short- run specifications of the alternatives discussed in the preceding section is shown for the Committee's objective for the Federal funds rate early in the period. At a later point, alternative language is also provided for placing main emphasis either on monetary aggregates or on money market conditions. The specifications adopted at the September meeting are shown in strike-through form. (24) To take account of uncertainties associated with the introduction of ATS, the Committee may also wish to consider certain modifications of its instructions to the Manager. These might include introduction of M-1+ as a third operating range and insertion of language to recognize the uncertainties introduced by ATS. In addition, at least for now, the Committee may wish to eliminate the phrase in the directive that gives equal weight to M-1 and M-2 so as to enable the Manager to take the behavior of M-1+ into account in appraising performance of the aggregates in the transition period. These modifications are indicated in the language below in capital letters and strike-through form. In the short run, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that are broadly consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited above, while giving due regard to developing conditions in domestic -17and international financial markets more generally AND TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE AUTOMATIC TRANSFER SERVICE. Early in the period until the next regular meeting, System open market operations shall be directed at attaining a weekly-average Federal funds rate (A) AT ABOUT THE CURRENT LEVEL (B) slightly (OR SOMEWHAT) above the current level. Subsequently, operations shall be directed at maintaining the 8¼ to 8¾] weekly-average Federal funds rate with the range of [DEL: ____TO ____ per cent. In deciding on the specific objective for the Federal funds rate the Manager shall be guided mainly by the relationship between the latest estimates of annual September-October] OCTOBER-NOVEMBER rates of growth in the [DEL: period of M-1, M-1+, and M-2 and the following ranges of tolerance: [DEL: 5 to 9] ____ TO ____ per cent for M-1, ____ TO ____ 6½ to 10½]____ PER CENT FOR M-+, and [DEL: M-2. TO ____ per cent for If, [DEL: giving approximately equal weight to M-1and M-2,] their rates of growth appear to be Monetary aggregates emphasis significantly above or below the midpoints Money market emphasis CLOSE TO OR BEYOND THE UPPER OR LOWER LIMITS of the indicated ranges, the objective for the funds rate shall be raised or lowered in an orderly fashion within its range. If the rates of growth in the aggregates appear to be above the upper limit or below the lower limit of the indicated -18ranges at a time when the objective for the funds rate has already been moved to the corresponding limit of its range, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. CHART 1 Recently Established M-1 Growth Ranges and Actual M-1 Billions of -Projection with ATS - Projection without ATS -370 i- 360 6%% 350 360 Q1 '78-Q1'79 350 360 350 360 6%% 350 340 330 1977 1978 1979 CHART 2 Recently Established M-2 Growth Ranges and Actual M-2 Billions of dollars - Projection 9% Q2 '78--2 '79 - 905 0 890 S0 6%% - 875 - 860 -845 Q1 '78-C 1 '79 - 830 6H% S860 S845 - 830 Q4 '77-Q4 '78 S860 6%% -845 830 - -845 Q3 '77-Q3 '78 6%% 1977 1978 860 - 830 1979 Chart 3 Recently Established M-3 Growth Ranges And Actual M-3 Billions of dollars 1590 - Projection 10% 1560 S- S1 , t- 1530 - 7%'% Q2'78-Q2'79 - 1500 -1470 - 1440 78-Q1'79 1500 \1470 1350 1440 1320 S1500 1290 s s'/ ^^, / Q4'77-Q4'78 % 1470 1260 1440 1320 1500 107 % 10/2% 1470 1290 Q3'77-Q3'78 1260 1440 8% 1320 1410 1290 1380 1260 1350 1320 1320 1260 I I I I I 1977 I I II I I 1978 I I I I 1979 Chart 4 Recently Established Bank Credit Growth Ranges and Actual Bank Credit Biflions of dollars - 1030 1 -- Projection S- 1010 81/% 990 - 970 950 10 S - 930 % Q1 '78- 01 '79 -910 I- S 71/V2% 950 930 910 10% 950 Q4 '77-Q4 '78 930 910 950 - 10% 930 Q3 '77-Q3 '78 -910 -- 7% - -890 ol ' t I I 1977 1 I I I I I II I I 1978 1I 1 I I 1979 i Appendix I Projected Federal Funds Rate Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 8% to 9k 9 to 9 1978 QIV 8 to 9 1979 QI 8 to 9 9 to 10l 9 QII 8 to 9 9 to 10 9% to 11 QIII 8 to 9k 9 to 10 9% to 11 to 11 Appendix II Implied Velocity Growth Rates V-1 1978 1979 (GNP/M-1) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C III 2.5 2.5 2.5 IV 4.0 (2.9) 3.9 (2.9) 4.1 (3.0) I 8.8 (4.8) 10.0 (6.0) 10.5 (6.5) II 7.5 (4.0) 8.0 (4.4) 8.6 (5.0) III 7.2 (4.0) 7.2 (3.9) 7.1 (3.7) III 4.8 4.8 4.8 IV 3.5 3.4 3.6 I 4.4 5.5 6.0 II 3.8 4.4 4.7 III 3.8 3.8 3.8 III 1.3 1.3 1.3 IV 1.3 1.1 1.3 I 3.2 3.5 3.5 II 2.2 2.2 2.0 III 2.2 1.9 1.4 V-1+(GNP/M-1+) 1978 1979 V-2 (GNP/M-2) 1978 1979 Appendix Table III-1 MONEY STOCK--M-1 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Base Period Ending Period 74IV 1975 I 2.1 75IV 75111 7511 751 761 7611 76111 76IV 771 7711 77111 77IV 781 7811 78111 II 4.3 6.5 III 5.2 6.7 7.0 IV 4.6 5.4 4.9 2.9 1976 I1 4.6 5.3 4.8 3.8 4.7 II 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.9 5.9 7.0 III 4.9 5.3 5.1 4.6 5.2 5.4 3.9 IV 5.2 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.8 6.2 5.8 7.7 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.6 6.1 6.4 6.2 7.4 7.2 II 5.7 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.5 6.9 6.8 7.8 7.9 8.6 III 6.0 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.9 8.0 8.4 8.3 IV 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.0 7.7 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.3 II 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.3 III 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.2 9.1 7.9 6.4 6.1 5.8 6.5 6.2 5.9 6.5 6.2 5.8 6.7 6.4 6.0 6.6 6.2 5.9 6.6 6.1 5.7 6.3 5.9 5.4 6.1 5.6 5.1 5.9 5.3 4.7 5.8 5.1 4.4 4.9 4.1 3.3 4.2 3.2 2.2 7.4 7.1 6.8 7.7 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.4 7.0 7.8 7.4 7.0 7.7 7.3 6.8 7.6 7.1 6.6 7.6 7.1 6.5 7.9 7.2 6.5 7.4 6.6 6.8 7.2 6.2 5.2 1977 I 1978 I 1979 III Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 6.0 5.8 5.6 6.9 * S* 6.2 6.0 5.8 ** 6.9 * * * * 6.2 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.7 10.3 * Without the effect of automatic transfers Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C I/ 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.9 6.7 6.5 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.9 6.7 6.4 Based on quarterly average data. 7.2 7.0 6.7 7.4 7.1 6.8 Appendix Table III-2 MONEY STOCK--M-l+ (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Ending Period 1975 I 74IV 751 75111 75IV 761 7611 Base Period 76III 76IV 771 7711 77111 77IV 8.5 11.9 III 9.4 11.6 IV 8.8 10.0 9.8 11.0 9.1 78111 6.9 10.7 10.4 14.1 10.5 11.6 11.5 11.5 13.9 13.8 III 10.1 10.9 10.7 10.6 11.8 10.7 IV 10.7 11.5 11.4 11.5 12.6 12.2 11.3 15.1 11.0 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.8 12.4 12.0 14.1 13.2 II 10.8 11.4 11.3 11.3 12.1 11.7 11.2 12.4 11.1 8.9 III 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.9 11.5 11.1 10.6 11.3 10.1 8.6 8.2 IV 10.2 10.7 10.6 10.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 10.4 9.3 8.0 7.6 7.0 1978 I 7811 11.3 II 1977 I 781 5.3 II 1976 I 7511 9.8 10.2 10.1 9.9 10.3 7.7 9.8 9.2 9.5 8.4 7.3 6.7 6.0 5.0 II 9.6 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.9 9.5 9.0 9.1 8.2 7.2 6.8 6.3 6.0 7.0 III 9.3 9,6 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.1 8.6 8.7 7.8 6.9 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.4 Alt. 8.9 9.1 8.8 8.9 8.2 7.6 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.3 Alt. 8.7 8.9 8.5 8.6 7.9 7.2 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.3 Alt. 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.4 7.5 6.9 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.3 1979 III 1/ Based on quarterly average data. Appendix Table III-3 MONEY STOCK--M-2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Ending Period 74IV 1975 I 6.4 751 7511 75111 75IV 761 7611 Base Period 76111 76IV 771 7711 77111 77IV II 8.3 10.2 III 8.9 10.2 IV 8.4 9.1 8.6 6.9 8.9 9.6 9.4 9.0 11.1 II 9.2 9.7 9.6 9.4 10.7 III 9.2 9.6 9.5 9.3 10.2 IV 9.7 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.9 10.9 11.2 13.3 9.8 10.2 10.3 10.3 11.0 11.0 11.2 12.3 11.2 II 9.8 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.8 10.7 10.8 11.4 10.4 9.5 III 9.9 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.7 10.6 10.7 11.1 10.3 9.9 10.2 IV 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.5 9.8 9.4 9.3 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.3 8.8 8.5 7.0 1976 I 1977 I 781 7811 78111 10.3 10.3 9.7 9.0 9.5 9.8 9.7 9.7 II 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.1 8.6 8.4 7.6 III 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.1 8.7 8.6 8.1 Alt. 9.3 9.5 9.4 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.6 8.9 9.0 Alt. 9.2 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.5 8.5 Alt. 9.1 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.4 8.0 8.1 7.9 1978 I 9.2 1979 III 1/ Based on quarterly average data. Appendix Table III-4 MONEY STOCK--M-3 growth, compounded quarterly)1/ of (Annual rates Ending Period 74IV 1975 I 8.3 751 7511 75111 75IV 761 7611 Base Period 76111 76IV 771 7711 II 10.6 13.0 III 11.6 13.2 13.5 IV 11.1 12.1 11.6 11.4 12.2 12.0 11.2 12.7 II 11.6 12.2 12.0 11.6 12.5 12.3 III 11.5 12.1 11.9 11.5 12.1 11.8 11.3 IV 12.0 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.8 12.9 13.2 15.0 12.1 12.5 12.5 12.3 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.9 12.8 II 11.9 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.8 11.7 10.7 III 12.0 12.3 12.3 12.1 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.7 12.0 11.6 12.5 IV 11.9 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.4 11.7 11.4 11.8 11.6 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.0 10.5 10.5 II 11.3 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.1 10.5 10.0 III 11.3 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.5 10.1 1976 I 1977 I 1978 I 77111 77IV 781 7811 78III 9.8 11.1 9.5 7.9 9.0 8.0 8.0 10.0 9.3 8.8 9.2 9.9 10.4 * * 1979 III 1/ Alt 11.1 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.4 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.7 Alt 11.0 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.3 10.0 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.7 Alt 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.1 9.7 9.4 9.2 Based on quarterly average data. 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.4 10.0 10.0 9.4 9.7 Chart I 10 13/78 Money Market Conditions and Interest Rates Per cent Per cent -- 10 INTEREST RATES Long-term Z,__,. Billions of dollars 1977 1978 1977 1978 1977 Per cent -1 11 i 1978 II Actual and Projected Reserves Chart CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class IIFOMC 10/13/78 Billions of dollars 38 TOTAL -37 -36 NONBORROWED -- 35 I I I ! I I I I I I i I I I Annual rate, per cent MONTHLY GROWTH RATES S20 TOTAL + u- 0 NONBORROWED J F M A M J J 1977 A S O N 20 D J F M A M J J 1978 A S O N D Table 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC OCT. 13, 1978 MONETARY AGGREGATES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Broad Narrow (M2) 2 Period ______(Ml) Total U.S.Govt Deposits l/ l Time & Savings Deposits Other Than CD's Other Savings Total CDSources CD Nondeposit of F1-unds 2/ 4 MONTHLY LEVELS-$BIL 1978-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. % ANNUAL 354.2 356.7 360.9 (362.0) 846.2 853.5 862.4 1867.7) 14.2 14.9 15.7 (19.7) 579.4 583.0 589.5 (592.9) 492.0 496.1 501.4 (505.7) 220.9 222.4 224.2 (224.6) 271.1 274.3 277.3 (281.0) 87.4 86.3 88.1 ( 87.3) 69.2 71.3 74.3 GROW1H QUARTERLY 5.2 11.5 9.2 1978-1ST iTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 6.5 8.8 10.4 12.3 9.1 10.4 7.4 6.8 11.2 2.6 1.3 4.5 11.5 11.4 16.6 43.2 22.9 6.5 6.2 9.9 7. 6 6.9 7.9 8.9 12.8 10.1 9.5 7.3 6.4 9.9 2.6 1.t 11.4 10.5 17.2 50.0 32.* 7.5 4.8 8.5 14.1 3.7) 8.0 10.4 12.5 7.4) 10.2 7.5 13.4 6.9) 10.3 11.5 11.4 8.9) 10.0) 10.2) QUARTERLY-AV 1978--1ST GR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 1.3 MONTHLY 1978-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT .- OCT. WEEKLY 1 22.5 14.2 13.1 16.0) 10.9) 5.9) 1 14.7) 9.7 -15.1 25.0 -10.9) 7.0) LEVELS-$BIL 1978-SEPT. 6 13 20 27 P OCT. 4 P .1l NOTE: 1/ 2/ 10.3) 8.1 9.7 2.1) -4.3 361.4 360.5 361.1 361.9 861.3 861.7 862.6 864.2 14.5 14.3 16.2 16.5 587.4 589.8 590.6 589.8 499.9 359.9 864.0 16.2 591.1 £L ________ L __________ I- F .1 501.5 502.3 223.7 224.1 224.1 224.2 276.2 277.1 277.4 278.1 87.5 88.6 89.1 87.5 504.1 224.3 279.8 87.0 501.2 70,0 70.7 74.1 75.5 ______ P - PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. SECURITILS SOLD UNDER INCLUDES BORROWINGS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES MENTS TO REPURCHASE. (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. AGREE- 1-A TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Table SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXCEPT AS NOTED Total Time and Savings Period Total Tim OUTSTANDING (S Savings Deposits Individdand I Business Nonprofit NSA) ( 550.6 556.7 561.7 565.2 571.6 574.5 579.4 583.0 589.5 220.7 220.9 221.0 221.6 222.0 221.7 220.9 224.2 205.2 205.2 205.8 206.3 206.5 206.1 206.0 207.7 209.2 55.3 17.7 1977--II1 IV 13.1 17.0 1978--1 II III 17.3 14.1 13.6 (S OCT. 13, 1978 Time Deposits Government (NSA) _____ {______ Total Memo: Large Large Small Negotiable CD's Denomination Denomination ______ ______j em Lrg BILLIONS) 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. CHANGES CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC 329.9 335.8 164.2 170.4 165.7 165.4 76.3 79.4 340.8 174.3 166.5 343.6 349.7 352.8 358.5 360.6 365.4 176.1 181.2 182.7 187.2 188.7 191.9 167.5 168.5 170.1 171.3 171.9 173.5 82.U 83.4 b7.l 86.7 87.4 10.8 11.0 5.0 5.2 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.2 4.0 4.0 16.9 2.3 -1.6 37.7 23.9 13.8 11 .3 3.9 2.9 4.7 3.3 0.4 0.3 -1.2 -0.6 9.2 14.1 5.9 12.7 3.3 1.3 0.7 7.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.3 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 16.0 14.5 10.4 9.3 1.5 2.8 3.5 8.6 13.2 12.8 6.1 5.0 3.5 6.4 2.9 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 -0.3 4.9 -0.8 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 1.7 1.5 6.2 3.9 1.8 5.1 1.5 4.5 1.5 3.2 -0.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 2.6 1.4 3.7 -0.4 0.7 -1.1 1.8 222.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.6 86.3 88.1 BILLIONS) 1977 YEAR QUARTERLY AVERAGE: MONTHLY 6.S 1.6 AVERAGES 1978--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. 3.6 6.5 1.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 -G.7 -0.2 0.0 5.9 5.0 2.8 6.1 3.1 5.7 2.1 4.8 AND (tl, RESPECTIVELY, ON IABLE I-MONETARY (6), NOTE: COLUMNS (1), (2), AND 19) ON THIS TABLE CORRESPOND TO COLUMNS (4), WITH ESTIMATLS FOR NONMEMBER BANKS 12), AND (6) REFLECT DAILY DATA REPORTED BY MEMBER BANKS, FIGURES IN COLUMNS (1i) AGGREGATES. SAVINGS DEPOSITS OF BUSINESS AND DERIVED FROM DATA REPORTED BY SMALL MEMBER BANKS, BENCHMARKED TO NONMEMBER CALL REPORT FIGURES. (7)-REFLECT bREAKDOWNS REPORTED EACH AND LARGE DENOMINATION TIME DEPOSITS -COLUMN GOVERNMENTAL UNITS--COLUMNS 14) AND 15)WEDNESDAY BY LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS BLOMN UP TO REPRESENT DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS ON THE BASIS OF CALL REPORT RELAIIUNSHIPS. CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED OCT. 13, 1978 REQUIRED RESERVES BANK RESERVES Total Nonborrowed Monetary Total Reserves Reserves Base Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Period MONTHLY LLVtLL-SM1LLIONs 38,194 37,909 38,174 (38,418) 1Q78--JULY AuG. SEPT. OCT. PERCENT ANNUAL 36,877 36,769 37,115 (37,263) 134,835 135,314 136,742 (137,722) 17,996 37,741 37,974 (36,213) 2i,486 22,515 22,445 (22,629) 13, 13 13,625 13,734 1,901 .,53o .,394 1( 1741) (1,b4) GROWTH QUARTERLY 197'1--1,T QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 12.9 10.1 4.1 5.8 11.6 4.b 8.6 3.2 5.3 7.9 10.4 6.6 5.7 11.8 4.5 -L.2 13.1 .a 8.5 6.3 8.4 14.5 0.3 6.2 9.7 8.0 9.1 8.3 6.9 6.3 4.3 5.0 9.5 12.b .1.5 6.7 ( 8.6 4.3 12.7 8.6) ( 14.3 -8.1 7.4 7.b) 5.6 5.1 14.z -0.0) ( 3.4 1.1 9.6 -8.0) ( 10.7) ( 7.5) ( O.b) QU RTERLY-AV 1974--1 1 QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. MONTHLY I 7.1) ( 8.0 -3.5 11.3 4.6) ( 8.1) ( 8.1) 14.9 -9.0 1978--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. b8., SEPT.-OCT. 1( .7) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1978-SEPI. OCT. NOTE: 13 20 27 36,235 37,903 37,872 38,469 37,070 37,393 36,949 36,910 136,421 136,247 136,418 137,405 37,930 37,790 37,697 38,234 22 ,6 i 22,539 23,049 23,038 13,620 13.701 13,74b 13,817 1,921 l i55l, d99 1,379 4 38,705 37,420 137,654 3d,532 22,949 13,814 1,769 6 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ASSOLIATED WTrH CHANGES IN RESERVE ReQUIREMENT RATIO. TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES1/ ($ million, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net ithin Change 2 Change 2/ iyear -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 4,361 I - 5 5- 10 Over 10 Total 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 2,833 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 758 167 129 196 1,070 642 553 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 4,660 681 628 96 166 128 108 1,021 1,001 1977--Qtr. III Qtr. IV 886 186 1978--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III -2,655 5,444 3,152 1,123 1,156 774 247 334 235 2,175 2,246 1,697 1,670 -620 4,395 235 290 631 145 74 115 671 519 1,057 1978--Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 1978--Aug. 116 99 Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ 235 283 2,635 424 350 Within year STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 13, 1978 Federal Agencies Net Change Net Net Purchases 4/ Total Outright Holdings Total 5/ Rs 6/ 6/ 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,433 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 10,035 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 -2,892 4,273 1 - 5 5 - 10 Over 10 592 400 1,665 824 469 792 - -- -- -- -- -- 386 177 145 707 -643 -2,331 34 301 -555 7,930 4,632 -1,133 1,224 266 2,341 -135 5,724 -1,026 -699 231 1,043 3,358 -2,536 1,701 1,102 -6 -863 461 1,241 209 6,760 -4,641 3,445 3,056 -373 -6 -6 2,751 -7,473 2,869 145 5,729 712 100 -6,270 5,822 -173 301 113 122 947 751 -- -- -- -92 ---- -81 -- - -173 -- -- -173 2 9 16 23 30 Sept. 6 13 20 27 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- - 634 -- -- -- -- -- -- - -- -- - 168 350 110 122 751 -- -- -- -- 2,001 4 11 18p 25 721 100 LEVIEL--Oct. 11 billions) 49.7 Oct. - -- -- -22 634 2,950 73 10.8 31.3 13.6 9.8 65.5 1.9 3.6 1.6 .9 7.9 123.1 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, 5/ and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 13, 1978 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Underwriting Dealer Positions Syndicate Positions Bills o up o n Issues Corpora Bonds Member Bank Reserve Positions Excess** Municipal Bonds Reerve Borrowing at FRB** III Basic Reserve Deficit** Total Seasonal 8 New York 38 Others 1977--High Low 7,234 1,729 3,017 -1,445 295 0 487 116 513 -111 1,861 20 131 8 -9,151 -4,234 -13,975 1978--High Low 5,625 278 2,043 -1,076 215 0 349 123 719 -227 1,716 172 208 25 -8,224 -2,839 -14,602 1977--Sept. 4,812 -313 128 230 209 626 112 -7,333 -11,120 4,142 3,617 4,257 -360 610 804 83 36 195 186 210 367 210 251 193 1,305 863 570 112 83 55 -6,480 -6,971 -7,403 -11,511 -11,825 -11,350 Feb. Mar. 4,127 3,418 2,713 327 1,492 740 42 24 96 293 197 268 268 243 200 484 406 328 32 49 47 -6,047 -4,980 -6,778 -12,299 -12,603 -11,060 Apr. May June 3,183 1,203 2,847 -183 5 78 46 25 35 202 264 188 149 219 178 557 1,212 1,094 44 92 120 -6,196 -4,038 -4,514 -12,998 -11,653 -12,202 July Aug. Sept, 1,196 1,994 *2,571 -626 423 *125 51 34 49 159 176 95 197 168 20 0p 1,317 1,139 1,060p 143 189 191p -3,651 -4,793 -5,155p -10,204 -11,089 -11,398p 2 9 16 23 30 1,595 1,928 1,956 1,941 2,087 -301 1,382 400 0 14 0 123 33 184 172 188 179 156 353 15 323 -9 269 1,438 878 963 1,606 1,023 166 175 184 196 208 -3,242 -5,145 -5,946 -4,567 -3,969 -10,095 -11,433 -10,999 -11,768 -10,364 Sept. 6 13 20 27 2,338 3,086 *3,606 *1,533 352 *52 *-297 15 90 92 0 139 57 117 67 305 113 175 235p 1,165 510 923 9 1,55 p 186 174 189 205p -4,707 -5,502 -4,971 -5,122 -11,622 -13,362 -11,031 - 9,861 Oct. *1,676 *1,393 *-19 *-369 35 20p 126 98p Oct. Nov. Dec. 1978--Jan. 1978--Aug. 4 11 18 25 -305 462 455 85 1,2 p 2 39 1, p 213p 209p - 8,206 - 8,273 4 -10, 20p 7 -10,13 p NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except: for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * ** Strictly confidential. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 13, 1978 Short-Term Long-Term (7) (8) (9) (10) l Mun Corp.-Aaa Municipal Utility New Recently B Issue Offered Buyer (11) (12) (13) 1977--High Low 6.65 4.47 6.27 4.41 6.62 4.67 6.51 4.56 6.70 4.50 6.66 4.63 7.75 6.25 7.39 5.83 7.70 6.59 7.99 7.26 8.36 7.90 8.48 7.95 5.93 5.45 9.00 8.65 8.98 8.46 8.39 7.56 1978--High Low 8.85 6.58 8.17 6.16 8.27 6.55 8.42 6.42 9.13 6.65 8.83 6.68 9.75 7.75 8.56 7.40 8.57 7.72 8.72 8.01 9.18 8.61 9.22 8.48 6.32 5.58 9.85 8.98 10.02 9.13 9.20 8.43 1977--Sept. Federal Federal Funds (1) Bills Treasury Treasury Bills BiMIssueMarket Auction 3-mo 1-yr 6-mo (2) (3) (4) CD's Ne Issue- Bank NYC 90-Day (5) Comm. paper Paper 90-119 Day (6) rime U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields yr 2yr Home Mortgages Secondary Market Secondary Market r r FNMA GNMA on. Auc. Sec. (14) (15) (16) 6.14 5.81 6.13 5.99 6.01 6.09 7.13 6.84 7.21 7.57 8.07 8.07 5.51 8.90 8.74 8.02 Oct. Nov. Dec. 6.47 6.51 6.56 6.16 6.10 6.07 6.52 6.52 6.52 6.41 6.43 6.38 6.53 6.56 6.65 6.51 6.54 6.61 7.52 7.75 7.75 7.19 7.22 7.30 7.44 7.46 7.59 7.71 7.76 7.87 8.23 8.28 8.34 8.22 8.25 8.38 5.64 5.49 5.57 8.92 8.92 8.96 8.82 8.86 8.94 8.16 8.19 8.27 1978--Jan. Feb. Mar. 6.70 6.78 6.79 6.44 6.45 6.29 6.80 6.86 6.82 6.68 6.74 6.64 6.82 6.77 6.73 6.75 6.76 6.75 7.93 8.00 8.00 7.61 7.67 7.70 7.86 7.94 7.95 8.14 8.22 8.21 8.68 8.69 8.71 8.60 8.67 8.67 5.71 5.62 5.61 9.02 9.15 9.20 9.17 9.31 9.35 8.56 8.64 8.60 Apr. May June 6.89 7.36 7.60 6.29 6.41 6.73 6.96 7.28 7.53 6.70 7.02 7.20 6.84 7.20 7.66 6.82 7.06 7.59 8.00 8.27 8.63 7.85 8.07 8.30 8.06 8.25 8.40 8.32 8.44 8.53 8.90 8.95 9.09 8.85 8.98 9.07 5.80 6.03 6.22 9.36 9.57 9.70 9.44 9.66 9.91 8.71 8.90 9.05 July Aug. Sept. 7.81 8.04 8.45 7.01 7.08 7.85 7.79 7.73 8.01 7.47 7.36 7.95 8.00 7.86 8.34 7.85 7.83 8.39 9.00 9.01 9.41 8.54 8.33 8.41 8.55 8.38 8.42 8.69 8.45 8.47 9.14 8.82 8.86 9.18 8.91 8.86 6.28 6.12 6.09 9.74 9.79 9.76 10.01 9.81 9.79 9.15 8.86 8.95 2 9 16 23 30 7.89 7.83 7.87 8.14 8.28 6.78 6.76 6.96 7.25 7.35 7.71 7.56 7.68 7.83 7.82 7.36 7.17 7.26 7.47 7.55 7.88 7.85 7.85 7.80 7.90 7.81 7.78 7.76 7.85 7.93 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.36 8.21 8.37 8.35 8.37 8.40 8.32 8.43 8.36 8.39 8.49 8.41 8.52 8.42 8.43 8.90 8.81 -8.80 8.80 8.91 8.89 9.00 8.87 8.85 6.12 6.03 6.19 6.11 6.16 9.78 9.78 9.78 9.80 9.75 -9.82 -9.80 -- 9.10 8.89 9.00 9.01 8.92 Sept. 6 13 20 27 8.30 8.33 8.36 8.62 7.60 7.70 7.92 8.04 7.86 7.91 8.02 8.15 7,74 7.79 7.98 8.28 8.00 8.34 8.50 8.50 8.07 8.30 8.45 8.52 9.25 9.25 9.50 9.50 8.35 8.34 8.45 8.49 8.35 8.33 8.46 8.54 8.39 8.36 8.49 8.61 8.77 8.74 8.90 9.06 8.79 8.73 8.92 9.00 6.13 6.02 6.12 6.09 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.78 9.78 -9,79 -- 8.92 8.89 8.90 9.10 Oct. 4 11 18 25 8.85 8.71 8.03 8.17 8.19 8.27 8.38 8.42 8.75 9.13 8.64 8.83 9.75 9.75 8.50 8.48p 8.56 2 8.5 p 8.64 8.61p 9.04 -- 9.04 9.04p 6.07 6.10 9.85 n.a. 9.91 -- 9.13 9.07 Daily--Oct. 5 12 8.75 8 8 . 0p 8.19 7.78 8.25 8.26 --- 8.73 8.93 9.75 9.75 8.51 8.48p 8.56 8.49p 8.65 8.59p 1978--Aug. --- .. ... NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 are statement week averages of daily data. Weekly data in column 4 are average rates set in the auctions of For columns 8 through Data in column 5 are 1-day Wednesday quotes. 6-month bills that will be issued on the Thursday following the end of the statement week. 11, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 12 and 13 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 14 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 15 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 16 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. OCT. 12, 1978 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Appendix Table Bank Reserves Cdk Period Total Loans and Investments Total Nonborrowed Monetary Base 1 2 3 4 3.2 1.2 5.9 7.0 3.9 8.0 5.2 2.7 8.3 1ST HALF 1977 2ND HALF 1977 3.5 6.8 2.9 2.6 1ST 7.5 ANNUALLY: 1975 1976 -0.3 1.0 1977 Money Stock Measures MI M2 M3 5 6 7 (PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH) M4 M5 M M 8 9 10 11 4.6 5.8 8.4 10.9 11.1 12.8 6.6 7.1 9.7 10.3 10.5 9.9 10.1 10.0 11 7.9 9.8 11.7 10.1 11.8 11.5 12.1 7.3 9.0 11.3 10.7 7.8 7.8 10.1 9.1 11.4 11.4 9.4 10.3 10.8 12.1 10.2 12.2 10.7 12.7 7.4 8.9 11.4 8.1 7.4 7.8 10.3 9.5 9.5 10.9 7.8 9.6 9.5 6.6 7.2 9.3 11.5 11.8 11.9 13.2 7.9 10.4 8.6 9.5 13.5 10.7 5.2 11.5 9.2 6.5 8.8 10.4 7.0 8.4 11.7 9.6 10.0 10.0 8.9 9.2 11.4 9.1 8.9 9.9 10.2 10.4 9.9 9.1 9.9 7.5 8.1 10.6 10.8 12.2 12.6 13.3 2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY HALF 1978 QUARTERLY 4TH OTR. 1977 7.0 1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 1978 1978 1978 5.8 11.6 4.8 8.6 3.2 5.3 QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH OTR. 1977 6.1 3.4 1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 1978 1978 1978 8.5 6.3 8.4 14.5 0.3 6.2 9.7 8.0 9.1 9.6 13.0 11.0 6.2 9.9 7.6 6.9 7.9 8.9 7.7 7.8 10.0 10.3 10.1 8.8 9.8 9.1 9.9 10.0 8.9 8.6 11.3 10.2 9.2 1977--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 0.7 9.8 5.2 5.9 15.9 -13.4 20.9 16.1 8.1 10.0 8.0 10.4 7.2 12.9 9.2 6.3 9.1 10.5 1.1 8.2 9.0 9.5 6.0 6.1 12.3 11.6 8.1 7.9 9.2 12.4 11.8 9.9 12.2 13.3 11.5 10.1 12.4 13.7 12.0 9.7 12.1 14.4 13.5 11.2 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. 15.4 10.6 -8.6 9.3 10.0 15.0 14.9 -9.0 8.4 18.6 13.3 -6.1 1.8 -11.4 19.4 8.0 -3.5 11.3 13.6 6.9 3.0 7.8 12.0 11.1 8.6 4.3 12.7 13.6 7.9 6.9 18.5 15.6 6.0 16.7 5.2 9.9 11.3 0.4 3.9 19.6 7.2 7.5 4.8 8.5 14.1 9.5 4.1 5.1 11.2 7.1 7.8 8.0 10.4 12.5 9.2 5.6 6.2 9.5 7.2 8.4 9.3 11.8 13.7 11.8 8.5 8.3 11.9 11.2 6.6 8.2 8.0 13.7 10.6 7.9 8.0 10.2 9.6 7.6 9.3 10.3 14.3 11.5 8.0 7.5 10.1 9.7 6.8 7.4 9.1 12.9 12.7 9.3 8.6 11.7 10.8 8.3 8.0 8.8 12.7 MONTHLY: 1/ 2/ P BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. Appendix Table 1-B OCT. 13, 1978 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Bank Reserves 1 Period a t To Nonborrowed Monetary Base Bank Credit Total Loans and Money Stock Measures M1 M2 M3 M4 5 M6 M7 Invest- ments ANNUALLY: 1975 1976 1977 33,969 34,441 36 143 33,839 34,388 35,574 110,345 1189063 127,972 726.2 788.9 875.5 295.2 313.5 338.5 664.7 740.5 P09.5 1092.5 1236.5 1376.1 746.1 803.2 883.5 1173.8 1299.2 1450.1 1308.0 1437.6 1603.4 1351.0 14B5.0 1666.0 35 520 34,894 124,987 855.1 333.0 795.1 1344.9 858.9 1408.7 1557.1 1613.6 OCT. NOV. DEC. 35,809 35,965 36,143 34,503 35,103 35,574 126,026 126,871 1279972 864.3 870.9 875.5 335.9 336.2 338.5 801.4 805.4 809.5 1357.9 1367.1 1376.1 867.8 876.3 883.5 1424.3 1438.0 1450.1 1574.9 1590.6 1603.4 1633.0 1651.4 1666.6 197 -- JAN. FEB. MAR. 36 608 36,931 36,667 36,124 36,525 36,339 129,417 130,156 130,484 885.4 891.2 896.7 341.7 341.8 342.9 815.9 819.1 822.6 1386.6 1393.1 1400.3 892.2 898.5 904.7 1462.9 1472.5 1482.3 1618.7 1629.5 1639.7 1684.4 1691.4 1 709.5 APR. MAY JUNE 36,951 37,260 37,726 36,394 36,048 36,632 131,334 132,647 133.873 910.5 922.3 926.9 348.5 350.6 352.8 830.3 835.2 840.6 1411.4 1419.9 1429.8 913.7 922.2 927.3 1494.9 1506.9 1516.5 1653.5 1666.8 1676.3 1726.1 1741.7 1753.8 JULY AUG. SEPT.P 38,194 37,909 38,174 36,877 36,769 379115 134,835 135,314 136,742 939.8 943.9 951.7 354.2 356.7 360.9 646.2 853.5 862.4 1440.9 1455.1 1471.7 933.6 939.8 950.5 1528.3 1541.4 1559.8 1666.7 1699.5 1717.7 1765.5 1776.4 1797.2 37,723 38,122 37,618 38,101 36,845 37,159 36,012 37,075 134,616 135,360 135,196 136,017 356.7 357.5 357.4 355.5 852.0 853.8 854.9 854.3 938.3 939.8 941.0 940.9 6 13 20 27P 38,235 37,903 37,872 38,469 31,070 37,393 36,949 36,910 136,421 136,287 136,418 137,405 361.4 360.5 361.1 361.9 861.3 861.7 862.6 864.2 948.8 950.3 951.8 951.7 4P 38 ,705 37,420 137,654 359.9 864.0 951.0 MONTHLY : 1977--SEPT. WEEKLY: 1978-4UG. SEPT. OCT. NOTES: MEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DA1A ARE M3, MS* M6# W7i TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. DATA SHOMM IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. P - PRELIMINARY NOT-AVAILABLE FOR OCT. 13, 1978 APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Mutual Time and Savings Ti me a dDeposits Currency Period Demand Deposits Other Than CD's Total Total 1 2 3 4 2/ Savings Other CD's Savings Credit Bank & S&L Shares-1/ Union Shares-i avings Bonds 9 10 11 7 8 6 5 (Per cent annual rates of growth) Short Term Other Private U.S Gov't Short-term Securities Assets 1/ 12 ANNUALLY8 8.9 9.6 9.5 3.3 4.6 7.4 7.9 8.0 11.4 11.7 15.0 11.2 17.5 25.0 11.1 7.8 7.4 11.4 -6.4 -23.4 12.8 15.3 15.5 14.2 19.5 16.8 19.4 6.2 6.9 5.6 33.8 5.5 12.3 -0.7 13.1 27.5 1ST HALF 1977 2ND HALF 1977 8.7 9.8 7.4 7.1 10.4 11.8 11.9 10.0 15.3 6.4 8.9 13.3 0.6 24.9 12.9 14.5 16.6 20.6 6.4 6.5 2.7 21.6 25.6 26.1 1ST HALF 1978 9.6 7.7 11.7 6.9 2.1 11.1 43.5 7.5 17.4 6.3 12.9 47.1 1977 10.7 5.4 14.5 7.7 1.5 13.5 64.0 11.6 18.8 6.4 20.3 48.1 1ST QTR. 1978 2ND QTR. 1978 3RD QTR. 1978 QUARTER LY-A V: 9.5 9.3 10.3 3.8 12.0 8.9 12.3 9.1 10.4 7.4 6.8 11.2 2.6 1.3 4.5 11.5 11.4 16.8 43.2 22.9 6.5 6.9 7.3 13.9 17.9 14.7 12.6 6.3 5.7 5.1 15.1 6.5 -14.3 40.4 44.1 10.. 4TH QTR. 1977 10.3 6.4 13.0 8.5 5.4 11.6 44.9 13.9 20.0 5.9 26.4 32.0 IST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 1978 1978 1978 10.5 8.4 9.6 5.0 10.3 7.0 12.8 10.1 9.5 7.3 6.4 9.9 2.6 1.6 1.3 11.4 10.5 17.2 50.0 32.8 7.5 8.1 6.8 11.4 16.2 15.8 12.8 6.3 6.2 5.1 17.9 7.6 -11.4 46.a 42.5 21.9 1977--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 11.2 11.1 8.3 12.3 7.8 10.2 -1.0 6.8 9.2 13.7 18.5 10.9 8.9 8.8 9.5 4.6 10.0 4.4 -1.1 1.1 7.9 13.3 18.0 8.7 11.4 48.9 81.3 52.5 16.6 14.0 11.0 9.5 24.7 21.5 15.8 18.2 4.8 6.4 6.3 6.3 23.5 31.2 24.0 4.7 6.4 29.i 57.9 51.3 1976--JAN. FEB. 10.8 9.4 8.0 6.6 11.8 9.1 6.5 9.0 15.3 11.0 -2.4 2.9 23.8 5.6 6.5 4.6 8.7 13.2 12.3 13.3 10.8 7.5 13.6 6.1 10.2 7.5 13.4 8.4 7.6 6.0 5.3 6.7 8.2 10.3 11.5 11.4 6.0 1.1 0.5 3.3 2.2 -1.6 -4.3 8.1 9.7 10.0 13.2 10.8 6.5 11.5 16.0 22.5 14.2 13.1 37.3 46.8 39.3 20.5 53.2 -5.5 9.7 -15.1 25.0 7.8 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.8 8.3 11.4 14.1 15.7 17.9 15.2 20.0 14.7 12.1 16.8 11.8 11.7 13.9 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 4.6 6.1 3.0 6.0 32.9 13.7 -1.5 13.6 11.9 -5.9 -26.7 -7.6 -9.2 1975 1976 1977 2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY: QUARTERLY: 41H QTR. MONTHLY: MAAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT.P GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. 1/ END OF CRRENT MON H AND END OF 43.5 40.2 3.63 48.1 38.0 41.7 20.1 1.5 9.1 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B OCT. 13, 1978 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time Savings and Deposits Time and Savings DepositsSavings Currency Demand Cure Deposits Period 1 2 Other Than CD's Total 3 CD's Mutual Bank S&L Credit Union Savings Shares Bonds ShortTerm . Gov't Sec Se1c 11 Other Private Shortterm Assets 12 13 Total NonGov Deposit Funds Demand 3/ Depos it s A/ Total 4 Savings 5 Other 6 7 Shares 8 369.6 427.0 471.0 160.5 201.9 219.6 209.1 225.1 251.5 81.3 62.7 74.0 394.8 456.9 519.8 33.0 39.1 46.8 61.2 71.9 76.6 66.9 43.0 47.1 63.4 34.4 66.e 76.7 51.0 62.C 8.i 11.2 11.4 II 9 10 1/ 14 ANNUALLY: 73.7 80.7 88.6 221.5 249.9 450.9 489.7 545.0 86.3 246.6 525.9 462.1 218.8 243.3 63.b 505.1 44.7 75.4 7.0 56.6 57.5 10.1 87.1 87.7 88.6 248.7 248.5 249.9 531.9 540.1 545.0 465.5 469.2 471.0 219.6 219.4 219.6 246.0 249.7 251. 66.4 70.9 74.0 511.0 515.7 519.8 45.5 46.1 46.8 75.8 76.2 76.6 74.9 76.4 76.7 58.0 60. b 63,4 5d.l 62.0 10.3 6.7 11.4 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. 89.4 90.1 90.7 252.2 251.7 252.3 550.6 556.7 561.7 474.3 477.3 479.7 220.7 220.9 221.0 253.6 256.4 258.7 76.3 79.4 82.0 523.2 525.9 526.e 47.5 46.1 48.9 77.0 77.4 77.8 78.8 79.7 79.6 65.7 67.9 69.6 65.3 66.6 67.0 9.' 7.5 7.9 APR. MAY JUNE 91.2 92.1 92.8 257.3 258.5 259.9 565.2 571.6 574.5 481.8 484.5 487.8 221.6 222.0 221.7 260.1 262.6 266.1 83.4 81.1 86.7 531.7 534.7 538.4 49.5 50.0 50.7 78.2 78.6 78.9 80.5 81.3 80.9 72.6 74.9 77.5 66.1 68.2 69.2 8.3 7.3 JULY AUG. SEPT.P 93.3 94.0 95.2 260.9 579.4 583.0 589.5 492.0 496.7 501.4 220.9 222.4 224.2 271.1 274.3 277.3 87.4 86.3 88.1 543.5 51.2 51.7 52.3 79.3 79.5 79.9 79.1 78.6 78.0 76.8 7&.9 79.5 69.2 9 16 23 30 93.6 93.9 94.2 94.4 262.8 263.5 263.2 261.1 581.6 582.3 583.6 S85.3 495.3 496.3 497.5 498.7 221.4 222.2 222.9 223.2 273.8 274.1 274.6 275.5 86.3 86.0 86.1 86.6 72.0 69.4 71.3 72.9 13.8 14.4 15.1 6 13 20 27P 95.1 95.0 95.1 95.4 266.3 265.5 266.0 266.4 587.4 589.8 590.6 589.8 499.9 501.2 501.5 502.3 223.7 224.1 224.2 276.2 277.1 277.4 278.1 87.5 88.6 89.1 87.5 70.0 70.7 74.1 75.5 14.5 14 .2 16.4 16.5 4P 95.6 264.3 591.1 504.1 224.3 279.8 87.0 1975 1976 1977 232.8 MONTHLY: 1977--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 262.8 265.7 549.9 557.1 60.1 71.3 73.3 11.3 14.2 14.9 15.7 WEEKLY: 1978-AUG. SEPT. OCT. 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ P - 224.1 ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENI MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIL NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SkCURITV RP'S AND MONEY MARKFT MUTUAL FUND SHARES. BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECuRITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FuREIGN bRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY 16.0 16.2 

Federal Reserve (1978, October 16). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19781017

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19781017,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1978},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19781017},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}