Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. 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Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC August 11, 1978 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I FOMC August 11, 1978 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M-1 increased at a 5.1 per cent annual rate in July and appears to be expanding over the July-August period at an annual rate of about 6 per cent, the mid-point of the Committee's range. M-2 expansion during July and August is projected to average almost 9 per cent at an annual rate, in the upper half of the Committee's range. Large-denomination time deposits included in M-2 have increased sharply in recent weeks, while growth in small-denomination time deposits slowed and savings deposits declined somewhat. At nonbank thrift institutions, deposit inflows strengthened further in July. Although sales of the new money market certificates picked up in July at both banks and thrifts, only the latter appear to be gaining substantial net new money through the instrument. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over July-August Period Ranges Memo: Latest Estimates M-1 4 to 8 6.0 M-2 6 to 10 8.9 Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) Avg. for statement week ending July 19 7.94 26 7.88 Aug. 2 7.89 7.83 9 (2) Since the July FOMC meeting Federal funds have traded to 8 per cent range, while projected growth in the mone- within a 7 tary aggregates over the July-August period has also remained well within the Committee's ranges. Although the funds rate was slightly higher during the inter-meeting period than in preceding weeks, shortand long-term market interest rates declined by as much as 20 and 30 basis points since the July FOMC meeting. The fall in rates developed in response to a shift in expectations, apparently induced by recent moderate growth in the monetary aggregates, failure of the Federal funds rate to move even higher, and signs of slowing in economic expansion. The rally was encouraged by efforts of Treasury security dealers and other active trading accounts to cover short positions in coupon issues and to build up larger long positions in bills. In addition, demand for Treasury bills increased as a result of substantial foreign central bank investment of dollars obtained in currency exchange support operations. Most recently, a portion of the general rate decline has been reversed. (3) Corporate bond offerings to the public have been relatively light in recent weeks, but issuance of municipal bonds has been exceptionally heavy, partly reflecting a spurt in advance refunding issues in advance of a September 1 change in Treasury regulations. The Treasury also raised about $5 billion of new money during the inter-meeting period. In its quarterly refunding operation, the Treasury sold $7.7 billion of new debt instruments--including $700 million issued to foreign official accounts on a non-competitive basis--to roll over $4.4 billion of maturing debt. Aggressive bidding by investors and a sizable volume of private non-competitive tenders left the dealer community with only about 35 per cent of the total awards to the domestic public. Dealers have thus far distributed about two- thirds of their awards. (4) The improved deposit flows to thrift institutions and reduction in market interest rates have reduced the pressure on mortgage rates. While mortgage indebtedness apparently has continued to expand at about the stronger second-quarter pace, average rates on new home loan commitments at S&L's have edged up only slightly in recent weeks. Moreover, fewer institutions have been reporting that lendable funds are in substantially short supply. (5) Growth in commercial bank credit rebounded in July, reflecting a very strong advance in total loans and a substantial rise in total investments. Real estate and consumer loans continued to rise at relatively strong rates. Growth in business loans also picked up from June's reduced pace, but remained below that recorded on average over the first half of the year. To help finance bank credit expansion, banks issued sizable amounts of negotiable CD's and other large time deposits. (6) The table on the next page shows percentage annual rates of changes in related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. 1976 & 1977 Average Past Twelve Months July '78 over July '77 Past Six Months July '78 over Jan. '78 Past Three Months July '78 over Apr. '78 Nonborrowed reserves 2.5 5.6 4.3 5.4 8.5 Total reserves 3.2 8.3 8.8 13.6 15.3 Monetary Base 7.7 9.4 8.4 10.7 8.7 6.8 7.4 6.9 6.4 5.1 10.4 8.1 7.8 8.1 8.4 12.3 9.4 8.1 8.7 10.0 M-4 (M-2 plus CD's) 8.6 10.4 9.6 9.0 8.5 M-5 (M-3 plus CD's) 11.1 10.8 9.2 9.4 10.0 Month-end basis 9.8 11.5 12.3 12.9 16.7 Monthly average 9.5 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.8 -0.4 2.1 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 Past Month July '78 over June '78 Concepts of Money M-1 (Currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M-2 (M-1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (7) Tabulated below for Committee consideration are two alternative short-run specifications for the Federal funds rate and the monetary aggregates. (More detailed and longer-term data are con- tained in the tables on pp. 6 and 7.) Alt. A Alt. B M-1 5½ to 9½ 5 to 9 M-2 7 to 11 6½ to 10½ Ranges for Aug.-Sept. Federal funds rate (inter-meeting period) 7¾ to 8 7¾ to 8½ (8) Alternative A contemplates continuation of a Federal funds rate around the mid-point of the existing 7¾ to 8 per cent range. Under the circumstances, M-1 growth over the August-September period is expected to accelerate into a 5½ to 9½ per cent, annual rate, range--bringing the level of M-1 by September a shade above that implied by the upper bound of the Committee's newly adopted longerrun range, as may be seen from chart 1 on the following page. M-1 growth in June and July may have been held down by an unusually rapid run-up in U.S. Government deposits, and such deposits are projected to decline in September. Moreover, transactions demands for cash are likely to be fairly strong in the third quarter as a whole, when nominal GNP is projected to rise at about an 11 per cent annual rate. The projected M-1 increase for August and September would lead to an expansion in the third quarter at about a 6¼ per cent annual rate, and would imply a rise in velocity of 4¼ per cent at an annual rate (see Appendix II). CHART 1 Recently Established M-1 Growth Ranges and Actual M-1 Billions of dollars 1 6%%A 6 /2% Projection - -- # - 370 - 360 Q2 '78-02 '79 0 0 -c 350 6%% ~ 360 S 01 '78-01 '79 3 5 0 6 %1 320 / Q4 O '77-0 Q4 '78 -350 330 360 6%% 320 - 350 3 '77-03 '78 330- 340 . 320 - - 330r SI I I I I I I I 1978 I I I I I I 1979 I 330 32 CHART 2 Recently Established M-2 Growth Ranges and Actual M-2 Billions of dollars 9% - -- Projection Q2 78-Q2 '79 - 905 890 S- - -- 875 860 Se 00 9'% S-- 845 0 1 '78-Q1 F 79 830 0 %815 0 - 845 9% 785- 770- e - 83 0 04 '77-Q478 - 815 755L b % - 845 830 785 J815 9% 770755 - - 4 - 830 - 815 - 800 785 - - 7 770- - 770 Q3 '77-Q3 '78 . 755 L^ 785-r 0 6% % 770 755 - 7551 1 1 0 I I 1977 I I I I 1978 I I I I I I I 1979 I A845 5 85 755 Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-2 M-1 1978 July Alt. A Alt. B Alt. A Alt. B 351.8 351.8 846.4 846.4 952.6 August 353.8 353.7 852.6 September 356.2 355.9 859.2 858.5 1978 QII QIII QIV 348.4 353.9 359.4 348.4 353.8 358.8 835.1 852.8 869.7 835.1 852.5 868.5 1979 QI QII 364.7 370.2 364.4 370.2 885.8 902.4 885.1 902.2 6.8 8.1 6.5 7.5 9.2 8.9 8.8 8.3 Growth Rates Monthly: 1978 August September Quarterly Average: 1978 QIII QIV 6.3 6.2 6.2 5.7 8.5 7.9 8.3 7.5 1979 QI QII 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 '78 '79 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.4 8.3 7.5 8.0 7.8 '79 6.3 6.3 8.1 8.0 Semi-Annual: QII '78-QIV QIV '78-QII Annual: QII '78-QII Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M-3 Bank Credit Alt. A Alt. B Alt. A Alt. B 1978 July August September 1441.6 1454.0 1465.0 1441.6 1453.6 1463.8 933.5 941.4 949.2 933.5 941.4 948.8 1978 QII QIII QIV 1420.1 1453.5 1483.8 1420.1 1453.0 1481.6 916.5 941.4 966.5 916.5 941.2 965.9 1979 QI QII 1511.6 1539.5 1510.0 1538.5 992.0 1016.3 990.0 1012.7 10.3 9.1 10.0 8.4 10.2 9.9 10.2 9.4 Growth Rates Monthly 1978 August September Quarterly Average: 1978 QIII QIV 9.4 8.3 9.3 7.9 10.9 10.7 10.8 10.5 1979 QI QII 7.5 7.4 7.7 7.5 10.6 9.8 10.0 9.2 Semi-Annual: 9.0 8.7 10.9 10.8 '79 7.5 7.7 10.3 9.7 '79 8.4 8.3 10.9 10.5 QII '78-QIV '78 QIV '78-QII Annual: QII '78-QII (9) M-2 in the August-September period under alternative A is expected to grow in a 7 to 11 per cent annual rate range. The interest-bearing component of M-2 may expand at about a 10 per cent annual rate over the period. This represents a slight slowing from the July rate of growth, but is more rapid than in the first half of the year. With inflows of deposits subject to ceiling rates remaining sluggish, banks are expected to sell substantial amounts of large time deposits--both non-negotiable and negotiable--to finance continued relatively strong credit demands. (10) Inflows of interest-bearing deposits to thrift institu- tions are projected to slow over the weeks ahead from the rapid July pace. The impact of the initial shifting of funds from outstanding financial assets to the 6-month money market certificate, which has been aggressively marketed by thrift institutions, may soon run its course. Even so, as with the interest-bearing component of M-2, thrift deposits are expected to grow somewhat more rapidly than in the first half of the year. (11) Under alternative A, the recent upward readjustment of market rates, following the unexpectedly sharp decline of recent weeks, may continue, with rates returning closer to their mid-July levels. Basically, however, demands on credit markets are not expected to strengthen significantly over the period. Corporate bond offerings are likely to remain near their recent reduced pace, municipal volume should drop off, and Treasury credit demands are not expected to pick up until later in the fall. In short-term markets, the 3-month Treasury bill rate is still quite low relative to the Federal funds rate--a spread of about one percentage point--and the bill rate should rise more than other short rates unless there is a substantial volume of foreign central bank purchases. (12) If the funds rate were to move up to the mid-point of the 7¾ to 8½ per cent alternative B range, the upward adjustment in market rates would likely be prompt and marked. The 3-month bill rate should move toward 7¼ per cent, and pressures on the CD and commercial paper rates should generate a further rise in the prime loan rate. The rise of interest rates on Treasury coupon issues would probably reverse all of the recent decline in such yields, and perhaps go somewhat further. And corporate bond yields may also rise fairly substantially given the prevailing narrow rate spread between Treasury and corporate issues. (13) Growth in M-1 and M-2 under alternative B may be in ranges of 5 to 9 and 6½ to 10½ per cent, respectively. It is expected that continued issuance of the 6-month money market certificate by banks and thrift institutions will tend to moderate adverse impacts of rising interest rates on inflows of small-denomination time and savings deposits; the beneficial effect is likely to be most marked at thrift institutions, if recent experience is any guide. Neverthe- less, the rising marginal cost of time and savings deposits, if not an actual slowing of deposit inflows, is likely to exert additional upward pressure on primary mortgage interest rates. -10(14) The staff still expects that interest rates between now and mid-1979 will have to rise beyond those contemplated under the short-run specifications for alternative B--given projections for GNP growth--if M-1 growth over the one-year QII '78 to QII '79 period is to be around the upper limit1/ of the 4 to 6 cent range adopted for that aggregate. per Federal funds rate projections through the second quarter of next year are shown in appendix I. 1/ Abstracting from shifts out of demand deposits of savings accounts occasioned by the automatic transfer regulation which goes into effect on November 1. -11Directive language (15) Given below are suggested operational paragraphs for the directive. The language of alternative A is consistent with the Like specifications of alternative A discussed in the preceding section. the directive adopted at the last meeting, it places main emphasis on money market conditions and calls for operations directed at maintaining the weekly-average Federal funds rate within the range of 7-3/4 to 8 per cent. (16) The language of alternative B is consistent with the specifications of the tightening alternative discussed in the preceding section; it calls for operations directed initially at attaining a weekly-average Federal funds rate slightly or somewhat above the current level. This formulation also provides variants that enable the Committee to place main emphasis either on money market conditions or on monetary aggregates. In the short run, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that are broadly consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited above, while giving due regard to developing conditions in financial markets more generally. During the period until the next regular meet- ing, System open market operations shall be directed -12Alternative A at maintaining the weekly-average Federal funds rate within the range of 7-3/4 to 8 per cent. In deciding on the specific objec- tive for the Federal funds rate the Manager shall be guided mainly by the relationship between the latest estimates of annual rates of growth in the [DEL: July-August] AUGUST-SEPTEMBER period of M-1 and M-2 and the following ranges of tolerance: [DEL: 4 to 8]____ to 10] ____ ____ per cent for M-1 and [DEL:6 M-2. TO ____ TO per cent for If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, their rates of growth appear to be close to or beyond the upper or lower limits of the indicated ranges, the objective for the funds rate shall be raised or lowered in an orderly fashion within its range. If the rates of growth in the aggregates appear to be above the upper limit or below the lower limit of the indicated ranges at a time when the objective for the funds rate has already been moved to the corresponding limit of its range, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. Alternative B maintaining the]ATTAINING A weekly-average Federal INITIALLY at [DEL: within the range of 7-3/4 to 8 per cent] SLIGHTLY (OR funds rate[DEL: SOMEWHAT) ABOVE THE CURRENT LEVEL. SUBSEQUENTLY, OPERATIONS SHALL BE DIRECTED AT MAINTAINING THE WEEKLY-AVERAGE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE WITHIN THE RANGE OF ____ TO ____ PER CENT. In deciding on -13the specific objective for the Federal funds rate the Manager shall be guided mainly by the relationship between the latest estimates of annual rates of growth in the [DEL: July-August]AUGUST-SEPTEMBER period of M-1 and M-2 and the following ranges of tolerance: [DEL: 4-to-8] ____ TO ____ M-2. 6-to-10] ____ per cent for M-1 and [DEL: TO ____ per cent for If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, their rates of growth appear to be Monetary aggregates emphasis SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BELOW THE MIDPOINTS Money market emphasis close to or beyond the upper or lower limits of the indicated ranges, the objective for the funds rate shall be raised or lowered in an orderly fashion within its range. If the rates of growth in the aggregates appear to be above the upper limit or below the lower limit of the indicated ranges at a time when the objective for the funds rate has already been moved to the corresponding limit of its range, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. Chart 3 Recently Established M-3 Growth Ranges And Actual M-3 Billions of dollars 1590 Projection o10 1560 Q2'78-Q2'79 - 1530 - 1500 - 1470 07%% S ^- 0. 1470 00-. 1350 - 1320 - 1 1290- 10 % 9 0^7%% Q4'77-Q4'78 2 - 1260 L , 1260 L . - 14 1 0 1470 1410 ~ 144 0 -/ s / 1 44 0 - 1290 I - -o 1470 S S s Q3'77-Q3'78 , - 1440 1470 1290 14 10 / 1320 . 1290 '-1260 13201290 1977 I ----1380 l3 1320 -- - 1978 1470 1979 Chart 4 Recently Established Bank Credit Growth Ranges and Actual Bank Credit Billions of dollars 1030 i%-- Projection Q2 '78-Q2 '79 1010 990 s- 970 ,--s- - 950 930 # S1 10% '78-01 '79 910 / 950 910 o Q4 '77-Q4 '78 1~950 9 S910 850 €950 - 830 810 - - 10 S- 910 7% S89 - 1977 1978 930 1979 890 Appendix I Projected Federal Funds Rate 1978 1979 QIII Alt. A Alt. B 7-7/8 to 8 8 to 8 to 9k 8% to 9k QIV 8 QI 8% to 9% 8% to 9 QII 8% to 9% 8 to 9k Appendix II Implied Velocity Growth Rates V-1 (GNP/M-1) 1978 1979 Alt. A Alt. B II 7.3 7.3 III 4.2 4.3 IV 4.3 4.8 I 5.6 5.2 II 4.5 4.1 II 8.5 8.5 III 2.1 2.3 IV 2.6 2.9 I 4.1 4.0 II 3.0 2.7 V-2 (GNP/M-2) 1978 1979 Appendix Table III-1 MONEY STOCK--M-1 1/ (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Base Period Ending Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 74IV 75111 75IV 761 7611 7611 76IV 771 7711 7711 77IV 781 2.3 II 4.3 6.4 III 5.0 6.3 6.3 IV 4.4 5.1 4.5 2.8 I 4.5 5.0 4.6 3.7 4.7 II 4.9 5.4 5,2 4.8 5.9 7.0 III 4.7 5.1 4.9 4.6 5.2 5.4 3.8 IV 5.1 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.7 6.1 5.6 7.4 I 5.3 5.7 5.6 5.5 6.0 6.3 6.1 7.3 7.1 II 5.6 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.4 6.7 6.6 7.6 7.7 8.3 III 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.3 IV 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 I 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.3 6.7 5.7 II 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.8 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 9.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.0 II Alt, Alt, I/ 7511 I ** 1979 751 6.2 6.2 * * 6.5 6.5 * * 6.5 6.5 * 7811 * * ** 6.5 6.5 Based on quarterly average data. 6.3 6.3 Appendix Table III-2 MONEY STOCK--M-2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Base Period Ending Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 74IV i/ 7511 75111 75IV 761 7611 76III 76IV 771 7711 77III I 6.4 II 8.3 10.2 III 8.8 10.1 IV 8.3 9.0 8.4 6.9 I 8.9 9.5 9.3 8.9 11.0 II 9.1 9.7 9.5 9.4 10.7 III 9.1 9.5 9.4 9.3 10.1 9.6 8.9 IV 9.6 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.9 10.8 11.1 13.2 I 9.8 10.2 10.2 10.3 11.0 10.9 11.1 12.3 11.3 II 9.7 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.7 10.6 10.7 11.3 10.3 9.4 III 9,8 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.6 10.6 10.6 11.0 10.3 9.8 IV 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.5 9.8 9.3 9.3 8.4 I 9.5 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.3 8.8 8.6 7.8 II 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.2 8.7 8.6 8.0 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 8.7 8.7 8.4 8.4 8,3 8.3 8.0 8.0 ** 1979 751 II Alt. Alt. 781 7811 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 9.9 * * * * 9.3 9.3 77IV ** 9.2 9.2 10.0 10.4 10.3 ** 9.2 9.2 Based on quarterly average data. Appendix Table III-3 MONEY STOCK--M-3 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/ Base Period Ending Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 74IV I 1/ 7511 75111 75IV 761 7611 76III 76IV 771 7711 77111 77IV 781 7811 8.3 II 10.6 13.0 III 11.5 13.1 13.2 IV 11.1 12.0 11.5 9.8 I 11.4 12.2 11,9 11.2 12.7 II 11.5 12.2 12.0 11.6 12.5 12.2 III 11.5 12.0 11,8 11.5 12.1 11.8 11.3 IV 11.9 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.8 12.8 13.1 15.0 I 12.0 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.8 12,8 13.0 13.9 12.7 II 11.9 12.3 12,2 12.0 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.8 11.7 10.6 III 11.9 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.7 11.9 11.5 12.5 IV 11.9 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.4 11.7 11.4 11.8 11.2 I 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.0 10.5 10.5 9.6 II 11.3 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.5 10.1 9.9 9.1 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.7 8.7 * * 1979 751 II Alt. A 10.7 Alt. B 10.6 * * * 10.8 10.8 ** 10.7 10.6 -* *** 10.5 10.5 Based on quarterly average data. 9.7 9.6 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.3 8/11/78 Chart I Money Market Conditions and Interest Rates MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS I Per cent 1 INTEREST RATES Short-term Per cent 10 Weekly Averages 9 Per cent INTEREST RATES Long-term Weekly Weekly 11 - - 10 FHA MORTGAGES FNMA Monday Auction 8 \ -9 7 8 New Issue GOVT. BONDS 10-Yr. Averages 6 - 7 5 - 6 MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER Thursdays 4 I 1977 1978 1977 1978 5 I I I 1977 I III II 1978 I A II Chart CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Class II-FOMC 8/11/78 Actual and Projected Reserves Billions of dollars 38 TOTAL - 37 NONBORROWED I II I I I II I J I I I I Annual rate, per cent MONTHLY GROWTH RATES TOTAL - J1 n. 1 r NONBORROWED I J F MA 1 M J J 1977 A 1 S ON 120 D JF MA 20 M J J 1978 A S ON D 1 MONETARY AGGREGATES CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC Table AUG. 11, 1978 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow (M1) Period Broad (M2) Total Time & Savings Deposits U.S. Govt . Deposits / Other Than CD's Savings Total Total Nondeposit CD's O f SF o Funds 2 MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 1978-MAY JUNE JULY AUG. 835.1 348.6 350.3 351.8 (353.81 840.5 846.4 (852.9) 7.3 11.3 14.2 ( 15.01 573.6 486.5 576.8 490.1 582.0 (585.6) 494.6 1499.1) 222.0 221.7 220.9 (221.0) 264.5 268.5 273.8 (278.0) I 87,1 86.7 87.4 86.51 68.2 69.2 68.9 X ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 6.8 7.4 14.7 7.9 1.5 13.6 64.0 4.4 11.0 6.6 9.1 13.0 9.9 8.2 7.7 2.6 1.3 13.2 13.2 43.2 22.9 1977--4TH QTR. 7.5 8.2 13.1 8.6 5.4 11.6 44.9 1978-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 5.6 9.5 6.9 8.3 13.4 11.0 7.9 7.4 2.6 1.6 12.7 12.3 50.0 32.8 8.0 5.9 5,1 6.8) ( 7.8 7.8 8.4 9.2) 14.4 6.7 10.8 7.4) 1 7.7 8.9 11.0 10.9) 1 2.2 -1.6 -4.3 0.5) 6.0) 1 8.9) 9.2) [ 11.0) I -1.9) 1977-4TH QTR. 1978-IST QTR. 2ND QTR. QUARTERLY-AV MONTHLY 1978--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. JULY-AUG. 1 1 12.8 18.1 23.7 18.4) I 53.2 -5.5 9.7 -12.4) 1 21.2) I -1.4) WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1978-JULY AUG. NOTEs 1/ 2/ 5 12 19 26 P 2 P 353.9 352.0 349.2 352.0 846.5 845.3 843.7 847.8 353.1 849.9 12.5 13.6 15.1 15.6 579.4 581.1 582.3 583.1 492.5 493.3 494.5 495.8 221.2 221.2 220.8 220.8 271.3 274.9 86.9 87.8 87.8 87.3 14.2 583.6 496.9 220.9 276.0 86.8 272.1 273.7 65.3 64.8 73.1 71.5 P - PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. INCLUDES BORROWINGS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER MENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BQRROWED HONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS)* LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. AGREE- Table 1-A TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXCEPT AS NOTED Total Time and Period 'I OUTSTANDING a Individual aNonprt INonprofit 11, 1978 Time Deposits Memo: Large Large Small Negotiable CD's Denomination Denomination Business (NSA) Government (NSA) Total 10.8 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.2 320.7 325.7 330.3 336.6 342.0 345.2 351.6 355.1 361.2 156.8 160.6 164.1 173.7 175.4 180.5 182.0 186.4 164.0 165.0 166.2 166.5 168.2 169.7 171.1 173.1 174.7 IS SILLIONS) 1977--NOV. DEC. 1970--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY CHANGES Savings AUG. Savings Deposits T CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 70.9 74.0 76.3 79.4 82.0 83.4 87.1 86.7 87.4 540.2 545.2 S51.0 5S7.5 562.9 566.8 573.6 576.8 582.0 219.4 219.6 220.7 220.9 221.0 221.6 222.0 221.7 220.9 204.2 204.2 205.2 205.4 205.6 206.4 206.7 206.3 206.2 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 55.5 17.7 16.9 2.3 -1.6 37.9 23.9 13.9 11.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -1.2 5.7 9.2 14.2 -0.7 5.9 12.7 6.6 3.3 1.4 -0.3 0.7 7.1 16.7 14.3 14.2 10.0 2.5 4.3 8.8 6.5 3.8 3.5 6.0 3.6 1.7 5.1 1.5 4.4 1.0 1.2 0.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.6 3.1 2.3 3.1 2.6 1.4 3.7 -0.4 0.7 10.5 170.1 IS BILLIONS) 1977 YEAR QUARTERLY AVERAGE I 1977--II III IV 10.4 13.1 17.1 4.6 3.9 2.9 4.1 4.7 3.3 1978--1 II 18.0 15.3 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 -0.3 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 -0.3 -0.8 0.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 0.4 -0.3 MONTNLY AVERAGEt 1977--OEC. 19786-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY 5.0 5,8 6.5 5.4 3.9 6.8 3.2 5.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 5.0 4.6 6.3 5.4 3.2 6.4 3.5 6.1 AND 18), RESPECTIVELYt ON TABLE 1-MONETARY AND (9) ON THIS TABLE CORRESPOND TO COLUMNS (4), (6), (2), NOTES COLUMNS 1()i FIGURES IN COLUMNS 1l), (2)t AND 16) REFLECT DAILY DATA REPORTED BY MEMBER BANKS, WITH ESTIMATES FOR NONMEMBER BANKS AGGREGATES. SAVINGS DEPOSITS OF BUSINESS AND DERIVED FROM DATA REPORTED BY SMALL MEMBER BANKS, BENCHMARKED TO NONMEMBER CALL REPORT FIGURES. ()--REFLECT BREAKDOWNS REPORTED EACH AND ($)-- AND LARGE DENOMINATION TIME DEPOSITS -COLUMN GOVERNMENTAL UNITS-COLUMNS (4) WEDNESDAY BY LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS BLOWN UP TO REPRESENT DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS ON THE BASIS OF CALL REPORT RELATIONSHIPS. CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period Total Reserves AUG. AUG. 11, 11, 1978 1978 REQUIRED RESERVES Npnborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 2 3 4 5 6 7 132,655 133,873 134*846 (135,048) 37,049 37,548 38,007 (37,798) 21,883 22,151 22,217 (22,269) 13,428 13,575 13,612 113,6331 1,738 1,823 2,177 ( 1,895) V MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 197 MAY 37,268 37,726 36,208 t17 94%1 -- JUNE JULY AUG. 36,056 36,632 36,891 136.731) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 9.6 7.0 7.4 1977--4TH 9QT. 7.3 5.2 13.5 197r-ST QTR, 5.a8 .6 7,9 5.7 -1.1 12.9 2ND OTR. 11.6 3.2 10.4 11.8 13.7 10.1 QUARTERLYrAV 19T7-4TH Q1T. 6.1 3, 9.1 6. 6.1 9.1 4978-IST .5 6.3 14.5 0.4 9.6 8.0 0.3 7.0 3.6 5.9 12.8 11.5 12.0 1.0 8.7 1.8) 7.9 16.2 14.7 66.61 15.8 14.7 3.6 2.81 1 12.2 13.1 3.3 1.9) 3.2) 1 2.6) T07. 2Np 0TR. MONTL. Y 191--MAY JUNE JULY AU. JULY-AUG. I 10.2 14.7 15.3 -8.3) ( 3.51 -11.2 19.2 8.5 ( -5.2) 1 1.6) ( I 5.3) 1 ( 4.0) WEEKLY IEVELS-MILLONt$ 197SULYV AUs. NOTE: S 12 19 26 389792 37209 39.235 376928 37 599 36,306 37,646 4468 134,999 133,771 135,839 134,748 38,073 37,436 38,863 37,925 22 024 21,987 22,579 22,268 13,529 13,562 13.633 13,660 2519 1,887 2,651 1,997 2 9 37,974 37,840 36,535 36*961 134,947 134,427 37,656 37,752 22,153 22,281 13,671 13,647 1,832 15,24 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN RARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC AUGUST 11, 1978 TABLE 3 1/ NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES($ million, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury B ills Net Change 2/ 1 - 5 5 - 10 Over 10 Total Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Or 10 Over 10 - 5 5 - 10 1year 592 400 1,665 824 469 792 Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ ithin0 i year 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 4,361 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 2,833 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 758 167 129 196 1,070 642 553 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 4,660 1977--qtr. II Qtr. II] Qtr. IV 2,126 886 186 526 681 628 171 96 166 152 128 108 959 1,021 1,001 1,123 1,156 459 247 2,175 - 468 334 2,246 46 813 370 147 1,618 . 145 671 S 74 115 519 1,057 1978--Qtr. I Qtr. II -2,655 5,444 1978--Feb. Mar. -2,695 668 Apr. May June 1,670 -620 4,395 July 235 1978--June 7 14 21 28 July 5 12 19 26 Aug. 2 9 16 23 30 345 288 Net change Outright Total 5/ 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,433 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 10,035 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 -2,892 726 3,666 4,273 -643 4,175 -2,331 34 -555 -1,133 1,224 707 - - - 104 24 301 -- ---- - -- ----- 104 24 -- -- 127 46 -- - 127 -- - 135 631 2,233 301 - 199 . ..- -- - -- -92 -81 - -- -173 6/ 4,141 1,874 5,724 -1,026 -699 2,950 231 -2,536 2,341 ----135 1,057 17( 7,930 ----2,717 253 361 2,349 ,Ne Tol Total 253 333 3,406 199 -3,973 -3,060 11,835 161 1,263 -196 532 165 -10,119 7,080 3,024 -9,587 -6 -863 6,760 -4,641 117.0 8.0 .9 1.6 3.7 1.7 63.8 9.0 11.8 31.0 11.9 45.3 LEVEL--Aug. 9 (in billions) 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). -3.4 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC AUGUST 11, 1978 (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills - I I oupon s Underwriting Syndicate Positions Corprate uniipal B nd Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrown at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit** Excess** Reserves Total I '' Seasonal 8 Ne York 38 thers 1977--High Low 7,234 1,729 3,017 -1,445 513 -111 1,861 20 -9,151 -4,234 -13,975 1978-High Low 5,625 278 2,043 *-1,076 719 -227 1,716 172 -8.224 -2,839 -14,602 - 8:273 1977--July Aug. Sept. 3,899 2,533 4,812 -309 -933 -313 275 200 209 323 .1,084 626 -6,391 -5,581 -7,333 -11,012 -11,452 -11,120 Oct. Nov. Dec. 4,142 3,617 4,257 -360 610 804 210 251 193 1,305 863 570 -6,480 -6,971 -7,403 -11,511 1978--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4,127 3,418 2,713 327 1,492 740 268 243 200 484 406 328 -6,047 -4,980 -6,778 -12,299 -12,603 -11,060 Apr. May June 3,183 1,203 2,847 -183 5 149 219 178 557 1,212 1,094 -6,196 -4,038 -4,514 -12,998 -11,653 -12,202 July *1,194 201p 1,317p -3,655p -10,179p 645 794 1,194 1,716 -6,400 -5,075 -3,905 -2,922 -13,273 -13,857 -12,784 -10,016 1,193 903 1,589 6 1,4 0p -3,659 -4,707 -3,693 -2,839 -11,699 -10,261 -10,110 -3,265p -5,153p - 9, 40p 11 347 - , p 78 *-625 1978--June 7 14 21 28 3,835 3,918 2,930 1,554 752 81 -470 -47 49 113 226 168 July 5 12 19 26 730 1,038 *626 *2,084 -96 -661 *-1,076 *-432 719 -227 372 2 9 16 *1,569 Aug. *1,897p *-298 383 *1, p 3 0 15p 184 160p p 1 , 439 8 p 9 7 p - 8,206 -11,825 -11,350 - 8,273 23 30 NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * ** Strictly confidential. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. 9 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) Short-Term Federal reCD'as AUGUST 11, 1978 (7) (8) (9) (10) Long-Term Muni Corp.-Aaa Utility Bond ew Recentl Buyer Issue Offered (11) (12) (13) 1977--High Low 6.65 4.47 6.27 4.41 6.62 4.67 6.51 4.56 6.70 4.50 6.66 4.63 7.75 6.25 7.39 5.83 7.70 6.59 7.99 7.26 8.36 7.90 8.48 7.95 5.93 5.45 9.00 8.65 8.98 8.46 8.39 7.56 1978--High Low 7.94 6.58 7.15 6.16 7.84 6.55 7.52 6.42 8.00 6.65 7.88 6.68 9.00 7.75 8.56 7.40 8.57 7.72 8.72 8.01 9.18 8.61 9.22 8.48 6.32 5.58 9.78 8.98 10.02 9.13 9.20 8.43 1977--July Aug. Sept. 5.42 5.90 6.14 5.19 5.49 5.81 5.57 5.97 6.13 5.35 5.81 5.99 5.28 5.78 6.01 5.38 5.75 6.09 6.75 6.83 7.13 6.51 6.79 6.84 7.12 7.24 7.21 7.60 7.64 7.57 8.15 8.04 8.07 8.12 8.05 8.07 5.63 5.62 5.51 8.95 8.94 8.90 8.72 8.76 8.74 7.96 8.03 8.02 7.19 7.22 7.30 7.44 7.46 7.59 7.71 7.76 7.87 8.23 8.28 8.34 8.22 8.25 8.38 5.64 5.49 5.57 8.92 8.92 8.96 8.82 8.86 8.94 8.16 8.19 8.27 Federal Funds (1) Market 3-mo 1-yr (3) (2) Aucton 6-mo (4) New IssueNYC 90-Day (5) Com. e Paper 90-119 Day (6) Ba P Rate 6.52 6.52 6.52 U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields Home Mortgages Primar Secondary Market on FNMA GNMA Auc. Sec. (16) (14) (15) Oct. Nov. Dec. 6.47 6.51 6.56 1978--Jan. Feb. Mar. 6.70 6.78 6.79 6.44 6.45 6.29 6.80 6.86 6.82 6.68 6.74 6.64 6.82 6.77 6.73 6.75 6.76 6.75 7.93 8.00 8.00 7.61 7.67 7.70 7.86 7.94 7.95 8.14 8.22 8.21 8.68 8.69 8.71 8.60 8.67 8.67 5.71 5.62 5.61 9.02 9.15 9.20 8.56 8.64 8.60 Apr. May June 6.89 7.36 7.60 6.29 6.41 6.73 6.96 7.28 7.53 6.70 7.02 7.20 6.84 7.20 7.66 6.82 7.06 7.59 8.00 8.27 8.63 7.85 8.07 8.30 8.06 8.25 8.40 8.32 8.44 8.53 8.90 8.95 9.09 8.85 8.98 9.07 5.80 6.03 6.22 9.36 8.71 8.90 9.05 July 1978--June (FR) 8.00 8.69 9.18 6.28 7.35 7.58 8.47 8.47 8.55 8.63 9.06 8.96 9.10 9.18 6.18 6.16 6.26 6.29 9.57 9.70 10.01 9.15r 9.96 9.02 8.95 9.05 9.16 6.99 7.15 7.08 6.95 7.74 7.79 7.80 7.84 7.45 7.52 7.50 7.43 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.78 7.84 7.88 7.88 8.96 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.51 8.56 8.55 8.55 8.52 8.57 8.56 8.55 8.68 8.72 8.69 8.67 9.18 9.17 9.12 9.08 9.20 9.22 9.19 9.10 6.31 6.32 6.26 6.24 9.73 9.73 9.75 9.75 -10.02 -10.00 9.16r 9,14r 9.14r 9.20 7.36 7.17 7.88 7.85 7.81 7.78 9.00 9.00 8.36 8 2 . 0p 8.40 8.31p 8.49 8.41p 8.90 8 8. 0p 8.91 8 8 . 9p 6.12 6.03 9.78 n.a. -9.82 9.10 8.89 7.80 7.76 9.00 9.00 8.27 8.24p 4.36 36 8. p 8 7 14 21 28 7.70 8.00 July 5 12 19 26 7.72 7.72 7.94 7.88 Aug. 2 9 16 23 30 7,89 7.83 6.78 6.76 7.71 7.56 Daily--Aug. 3 10 7.85 7,82p 6.80 6.85 7.59 7.64 - --- 9.86 8.41 .45p NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 are statement week averages of daily data. Weekly data in column 4 are average rates set in the auctions of 6-month bills that will be issued on the Thursday following the end of the statement week. Data In column 5 are 1-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 8 through 11, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 12 and 13 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 14 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 15 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 16 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for ismediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. AUG. 11, 1978 Appendix Table 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Credit Period 2/ Money Stock Measures Bk Bank Rerves Total Non borrowed Monetary Base 1 2 3 Total Loans and InvestSments 4 MI 5 (PrRUCEN ANNUALLYS -0.3 1.0 5.2 3.2 1.2 2.7 5.9 7.0 8.3 3.9 8.0 11.3 1ST HALF 1977 2ND HALF 1977 3.5 6.8 2.9 2.6 7.3 9.0 1ST HALF 1978 7.5 7.4 3RD QTR. 1977 4TN QTR. 1977 8.0 7.1 1ST QTR. 1978 2ND QTR. 1978 1975 1976 1977 4.4 5.7 7.9 M2 6 ANNUAL KRA IE u M3 M4 MS M6 M7 7 I 9 10 11 GROW I n) 11.0 12.8 11.7 6.5 7.1 10.1 10.4 9.8 11.5 10.0 10.0 12.1 11.3 10.7 11.3 11.5 9.3 10.3 10.2 12.3 10.7 12.7 8.9 11.4 7.9 10.6 9.7 10.6 3.9 7.8 9.2 9.6 10.3 9.5 12.7 9.4 9.6 11.6 12.8 12.0 12.8 13.3 5.8 11.6 8.6 3.2 7.9 10.4 9.5 13.5 7.1 8.6 9.7 10.3 9.1 9.6 10.3 9.6 1.7 3.5 8.8 9.1 11.1 9.9 11.9 10.7 9.5 10.9 11.5 12.6 11.8 13.3 9.6 13.0 7.7 8.0 10.4 10.4 10.0 9.1 11.4 9.5 14.0 11.7 12.2 11.9 8.1 7.9 11.9 7.5 9.2 12.7 11.6 13.3 12.4 12.3 14.0 11.9 9.7 13.5 12.3 12.1 14.6 13.5 11.3 11.4 8.1 7.7 9.3 10.3 9.0 10.2 12.5 9.3 8.8 9.7 10.0 8.8 10.2 8.3 10.9 9.8 $EMI-ANNUALLY: QUARTERLY: QUARTERLY-AVi 38O OTR. 4TH QTR. 197? 1977 7.3 6.1 IS1 0TR. 2ND OTR. 1978 1978 6.5 6.3 14.5 0.4 9,6 8.0 1979-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 15.5 7.8 0.5 9.8 5.3 5.9 13.5 -17.4 15.7 -13.4 20.9 11.1 16.1 8.1 10.4 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY 15.2 10.9 -8.6 9.4 10.2 14.7 15.3 18.3 13.7 -6.2 1.9 -11.2 19.2 8.5 13.5 7.0 3.0 7.b 12.0 11.0 8.7 MONTHLY I/ 2/ P - 8.4 8.0 10.0 12.8 10.5 7.2 12.9 9.2 6.3 13.6 7.9 6.9 18.5 15.6 6.0 16.7 BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. PRELIMINARY 9.1 5.7 6.5 9.8 7.6 8.4 10.0 10.0 11.8 8.5 8.7 12.3 11.8 6.5 8.5 Appendix Table 1-B AUG. 11, 1978 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS B Period k Reserves 1/ Aa Money Stock Measures Credit Total Loans nd Investments Nonborrowed Monetary Base 33,969 34,441 36,143 33,839 34,388 35,573 110,345 118,062 127,971 726.2 788.9 875.5 294.5 312.6 337.2 664.1 739.6 808.4 35,271 35,501 35,517 34,948 34,440 34,892 123,294 124,155 124,984 842.6 850.0 855.1 327.5 329.2 331.6 OCT. NOV. DEC. 35,808 35,965 36,143 34,503 35,103 35,573 126,025 126,872 127,971 864.3 870.9 875.5 1978--JAN. FEB. MAR. 36,600 36,933 36,667 36,116 36,528 36,339 129,409 130,159 130,484 APR. MAY JUNE 36,954 37,268 37,726 36,397 36,056 36,632 JULY I 38,208 Total MI M2 M3 M4 M5 1091.8 1235.6 1375.0 745.4 802.3 882.4 1173.2 1298.3 1449.0 1307.3 1436.7 1602.3 1350.3 1484.0 1665.8 782.9 787.9 793.8 1317.2 1330.0 1343.5 845.8 851.1 857.6 1380.0 1393.2 1407.4 1524.2 1539.9 1555.7 1580.0 1596.2 1612.3 334.7 334.9 337.2 800.3 804.2 808.4 1356.8 1366.0 1375.0 866.7 875.1 882.4 1423.2 1436.9 1449.0 1573.8 1589.4 1602.3 1631.9 1650.2 1665.8 885.4 891.2 896.7 340.1 339.9 340.9 814.8 818.0 821.8 1385.4 1392.0 1399.5 891.1 897.4 903. 1461.7 1471.3 1481.5 1617.5 1628.4 1638.9 1683.2 1696.3 1708.7 131,337 132,655 133,873 910.5 922.3 926.9 346.3 348.6 350.3 829.7 835.1 840.5 1410.9 1419.8 1429.7 913.2 922.2 927.2 1494.3 1506.9 1516.4 1651.6 1665.8 1678.3 1722.5 1736.9 1749.7 36,891 134,846 939.8 351.8 846.4 1441.6 933.8 1529.0 1692.5 1764.5 28 37,093 38,092 37,886 37,529 36,448 37.299 36t692 35,813 133,018 134,068 134,039 134,045 351.7 351.1 349.2 350.0 841.0 840.7 839.4 841.3 928.4 928.0 925.6 927.1 5 12 19 26P 38,792 37,209 39,235 37,928 37,599 36,306 37,646 36,468 134,999 133,771 135,839 134,748 353.9 352.0 349.2 352.0 846.5 845.3 843.7 847.8 933.4 933.1 931.4 935.1 2P 37,974 36,535 134,947 353.1 849.9 936.7 M6 M7 ANNUALLYI 1975 1976 1977 MONTHLY: 1977-JULY AUG. SEPT. WEEKLYs 1978-JUNE 7 14 21 JULY AUG. NOTES1 WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. M3, M5. M6, M7, 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. DATA SHOWN IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. P - PRELIMINARY ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR AUG. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 11, 1978 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currency 1 Dmand Demand Deposits Deposits Total . 2 3 2/ Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD's Mutual Bank & sL Shares-V Other I Total-| Savings 4 5 6 7 8 (Per cent annual rates of growth) CD's -&CS'sh I -Savings Credit Union Shares1 9 Saings BoessI Other Short Term Private U.S.Govt Short-term U.S.Gov't Short-term Securities Assets .1/ 1 10 11 12 ANNUALLY 8.9 9.6 9.5 2.9 4.4 7.3 7.9 8.0 11.5 11.7 15.0 11.3 17.5 25.0 11.1 7.8 7.4 11.4 -6.4 -23.4 12.8 15.3 15.5 14.2 19.5 18.8 19.4 6.2 6.9 6.6 33.8 5.5 12.3 -0.7 13.9 27.5 1977 1977 8.7 9.8 7.2 7.2 10.4 11.9 11.9 10.0 15.3 6.4 8.9 13.3 0.6 24.9 12.9 14.5 16.6 20.6 6.4 6.5 2.7 21.6 25.6 26.1 1ST HALF 1978 9.8 6.9 12.4 7.7 2.1 12.7 43.5 7.6 17.4 6.3 12.6 34.6 1977 1977 10.0 10.7 8.7 5.4 9.9 14.7 10.8 7.9 10.9 1.5 10.8 13,6 3.2 64.0 16.2 11.6 21.7 18.8 6.5 6.4 30.0 20.3 12.4 48.1 1ST QTR. 1978 2ND QTR. 1978 QUARTERLY-AVt 9.5 9.7 2.6 11.5 13.0 9.9 8.2 7.7 2.6 1.3 13.2 13.2 43.2 22.9 6.9 7.3 17.9 14.7 6.3 5.7 15.1 16.6 40.4 9.2 3RD QTR. 1977 4TH QTR. 1977 9.1 10.3 7.7 6.6 10.3 13.1 11.2 8.6 7.3 5.4 14.6 11.6 4.5 44.9 14.6 13.9 20.1 20.0 7.0 5.9 15.7 26.4 18.6 32.0 1ST QTR. 1978 2ND OTR. 1978 10.5 8.9 3.9 9.8 13.4 11.0 7.9 7.4 2.6 1.6 12.7 12.3 50.0 32.8 8.1 6.8 18.2 15.8 6.3 6.2 17.9 7.1 46.8 20.1 1977--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 12.8 5.6 11.2 11.1 8.3 12.3 11.0 6.9 7.9 11.3 -1.9 6.8 11.9 8.3 9.2 13.7 18.7 11.1 14.9 8.4 8.9 9.1 9.5 4.9 6.2 16.3 10.0 4.4 -1.1 1.1 22.8 1.5 7.9 13.3 18.5 8.6 -9.5 7.6 11.4 48.9 81.3 52.5 14.3 17.1 16.6 14.0 11.0 9.5 19.8 19.5 24.7 21.5 15.8 18.2 8.1 6.4 4.8 6.4 6.3 6.3 26.5 38.0 23.5 31.2 24.0 4.7 19.7 10.8 6.4 29.7 57.9 51.3 1978-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY P 10.8 9.4 8.0 7.9 11.8 9.1 5.2 10.1 -4.3 1.9 23.5 6.1 4.7 5.1 12.8 14.2 11.6 8.3 14.4 6.7 10.8 8.9 8.6 7.0 6.2 7.7 8.9 11.0 6.0 1.1 0.5 3.3 2.2 -1.6 -4.3 11.4 15.1 12.6 8.3 12.8 18.1 23.7 37.3 48.8 39.3 20.5 53.2 -5.5 9.7 7.8 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.8 8.5 11.6 17.9 15.2 20.0 14.7 12.1 16.8 18.9 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 4.6 32.9 13.7 -1.5 -7.5 18.2 38.9 17.4 43.5 40.2 33.6 18.9 5.1 3.4 10.1 1975 1976 1977 2/ SEMI-ANNUALLYt 1ST HALF 2ND HALF QUARTERLYS 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLYi 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATEO MONTHLY AVERAGE PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF 7.6 URRENT MOTH AND EN OF APPENDIX TABLE 2-B AUG. 11, 1978 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time..and ndSaving. Depoi. Time Savns Depot Currency Demand Deposits Period Other Than CD's Total[ Total jSavings Other Mutual Credit Savings Union Savings Bank & S&L Shares Bonds CD'Shares 1_/ Other Private Shortterm Ass ts 11 12 66.9 43.0 47.3 63.4 34.4 51.0 62.0 8.3 11.2 11.4 55.8 53.5 55.7 57.5 11.8 10.2 10.7 58.1 60.1 62.0 10.3 6.7 11.4 9.7 7.5 7.9 Non Total Gov't Deposit Funds Demand Deposits 8 9 394.8 33.0 39.1 46.8 67.2 71.9 76.6 66.6 76.7 491.2 498.2 43.1 505.1 44.7 74.7 75.1 75.4 69.4 71.6 73.0 246.0 249.8 251.6 511.0 515.7 519.8 45.5 75.8 76.2 76.6 74.9 58.0 46.1 46.8 76.4 76.7 60.8 254.0 257.2 259.9 523.2 525.9 528.8 47.5 77.0 78.8 65.7 220.9 221.0 48.1 48.9 77.4 77.8 79.7 79.6 67.9 69.8 65.3 66.6 67.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 73.7 80.7 88.6 220.8 231.9 248.6 450.9 489.7 545.2 369.6 427.0 471.2 160.5 201.9 219.6 209.1 225.1 251.6 85.1 85.5 86.3 242.3 243.7 245.3 518.3 521.9 525.9 455.5 458,7 462.1 214.1 217.0 218.8 241.4 241.7 243.3 81.1 87.7 88.6 247.6 247.2 248.6 531.9 540.2 545.2 465.6 469.3 471.2 219.6 219.4 219.6 89.4 90.1 90.7 250.7 249.8 250.2 551.0 557.5 562.9 474.7 220.7 478.1 480.9 7 10 Short. Term US. Govt Sec / 13 14 ANNUALLYS 1975 1976 1977 456.9 519.8 MONTHLY# 1971--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 197B-JAN. FEB. MAR. 43.8 56.3 56.6 63.4 APR. 91.3 255.1 92.2 92.9 483.4 486.5 490.1 221.6 222.0 221.7 261.7 264.5S 268.5 531.7 534.7 257.4 566.8 573.6 , 516.8 49.5 MAY JUNE 538.5 50.7 78.2 78.6 78.9 79.1 80.3 82.9 70.9 71.2 71.4 68.1 68.2 69,2 8.3 7.3 11.3 JULY P 93.3 258.5 582.0 494.6 220.9 273.8 543.7 51.5 79.4 84.1 72.0 68.9 14.2 7 14 21 28 92.9 258.9 258.3 256.3 256.8 576.7 576.9 576.4 577.1 489.3 222.2 222.0 92.9 93.2 221.6 267.1 267.6 268.6 221.5 269.8 68.5 69.0 69.9 70.3 8.6 7.6 15.3 11.0 5 12 19 26P 93.1 93.3 93.2 93.5 260.8 258.7 255.9 258.6 579.4 581.1 492.5 493.3 271.3 583.1 495.8 221.2 221.2 220.8 220.8 65.3 64.8 73.1 71.5 12.5 13.6 15.1 15.6 2P 93.6 259.4 583.6 496.9 220.9 276.0 256.4 50.0 MEEKLYS 1978-JUNE JULY AUG. 92.8 489.6 490.2 491.3 494.5 272.1 273.7 274.9 E .1 __ I I I ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING ENO OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS* HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SECURITY RP'S AND MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND SHARES. BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROINGS)I LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY 14.2 

Federal Reserve (1978, August 14). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19780815

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19780815,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1978},
  month = {Aug},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19780815},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}