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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC December 16, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I December 16, 1977 - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M-1 declined at a 1.8 per cent annual rate in November, following its sharp advance in October. With growth apparently resuming in December, M-1 is projected to increase at a 2 per cent annual rate over November and December, 1 percentage point above the lower end of its FOMC range. Expansion in M-2 also weakened significantly in November and for November-December is projected at an annual rate of 6 per cent, also about 1 percentage point above the lower end of its range. Growth in the interest-bearing component of M-2 has remained relatively strong in recent weeks, reflecting a sharp rise in the large denomination time deposits included in this measure. Balances in small time and savings deposit accounts, on the other hand, are estimated to have declined somewhat in November, apparently in lagged response to the rise in market interest rates that occurred in late summer and early fall. Inflows to deposit accounts at nonbank thrift institutions also weakened markedly in November. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over November-December Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates M-1 1 to 7 2.0 M-2 5 to 9 6.0 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) Avg. for statement week ending Nov. 16 6.42 23 30 Dec. 7 14 6.51 6.55 6.51 6.49 -2(2) Throughout the period since the November 15 FOMC meeting, projections of growth rates of the key monetary aggregates for the November-December period have been well within the ranges specified by the Committee. Accordingly, the Account Management has continued to aim for reserve conditions consistent with Federal funds trading around 6½ per cent. (3) Total reserves are projected to expand at a moderate 5 per cent annual rate over the November-December period. Nonborrowed reserves, however, are expected to rise at an 18 per cent annual rate, reflecting the substantial decline in member bank borrowing over the past several weeks. In response to the October 26 increase in the discount rate, member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve Banks dropped from the average October level of $1.3 billion to an average of about $550 million in the first two weeks of December. (4) In addition to the sizable increase in large denomination time deposits included in M-2, negotiable CD's at weekly reporting banks also expanded sharply further in November. Together, the increase in both forms of large denomination time deposits amounted to a record $9½ billion, substantially greater than October's relatively large increase of just over $5 billion. Banks have been issuing substantial volumes of such instruments recently in order to raise funds to meet strong credit demands at a time when flows into demand and other time and savings deposits have been weak. -3(5) The substantial further rise in bank credit in November was concentrated in loan portfolios, as continued liquidation of Treasury securities more than offset a further rise in other security holdings. Business loans again expanded at a rapid pace, and gains in mortgages and consumer loans are also estimated to have been quite large. The advance in business loans--which apparently occurred at both large and small banks--extends the more rapid upward trend observable since around mid-year. (6) With the Federal funds rate remaining essentially unchanged and published data indicating that growth in the aggregates was weakening significantly, most market participants appear to have concluded that the System would not change its funds rate target over the remainder of this year. Against this background, the general level of short-term interest rates has remained essentially unchanged. How- ever, some minor realignments in relationships among individual rates have occurred: rates on private short-term instruments have edged a bit higher, apparently in response to the large volume of bank CD's being offered, while Treasury bill rates have edged down somewhat, reflect- ing, in part, the impact of substantial foreign central bank acquisitions of these securities. (7) In longer-term markets, on the other hand, yields have generally moved somewhat higher. The increase in longer-term yields appears to reflect in part an upward revision in interest rate projections for next year, as market participants apparently have interpreted -4recently published data, such as the upward revision in third quarter GNP and the November rise in employment, as indicating stronger than previously anticipated economic activity in prospect for next year. In addition, market expectations may have been influenced by larger than anticipated Treasury borrowing in recent weeks, as well as by increased prospects for a tax cut in 1978. (8) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rate of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. 1975 & 1976 Average Past Twelve Months Nov. '77 over Nov. '76 Nonborrowed reserves 1.5 2.6 3.7 6.6 19.4 Total reserves 0.4 4.9 7.4 4.2 3.8 Monetary Base 6.4 8.2 9.2 8.6 8.1 5.1 7.3 7.8 5.8 -1.8 10.0 9.6 9.1 7.6 4.5 12.3 11.6 11.8 10.8 7.3 M-4 (M-2 plus CD's) 7.0 9.9 10.5 10.6 10.5 M-5 (M-3 plus CD's) 10.2 11.7 12.6 12.5 10.8 Month-end basis 6.5 11.2 10.3 9.8 11.8 Average of Wednesdays 6.2 11.1 11.9 10.7 12.9 -1.1 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 Past Six Months Nov. '77 over May '77 Past Three Months Nov. '77 over Aug. '77 Past Month Nov. '77 over Oct. '77 Concepts of Money M-1 (Currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M-2 (M-1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions --which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (9) The table below presents, for the Committee's con- sideration, three alternative sets of specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate for the forthcoming intermeeting period. (More detailed and longer-term data for the aggregates are shown in the tables on pp. 7 and 8). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges for December-January M-1 4 to 10 3½ to 9½ 3 to 9 M-2 6½ to 10½ 6 to 10 5½ to 9½ 5¾ to 6¼ 6¼ to 6¾ 6¾ to 7¼ Federal funds rate (Inter-meeting period) (10) In view of the underlying strength of the economy, it is unlikely that the weakness in M-1 behavior in November will persist. Given projections of nominal GNP, money demand can be expected to be relatively strong over the months ahead as the restraining effect of the 1 to 2 percentage point rise in short rates since last spring wears off. While the growth in GNP will probably generate less demand for money than historical relationships would suggest, it appears likely, on the basis of recent experience, that demand will be stronger relative to economic activity than was the case in 1975 and 1976. (11) Against that background, M-1 growth is likely to pick up in the December-January period. Given the Federal funds rate assump- tions of alternative B--where the rate is centered at the prevailing level of 6-1/2 per cent--M-1 growth over this period is likely to be Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-2 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 November December 1978 January 333.2 334.9 337.0 333.2 334.8 336.8 333.2 334.7 336.6 802.6 807.8 813.6 802.6 807.6 813.1 802.6 807.6 812.8 1977 QIII QIV 328.5 333.9 328.5 333.9 328.5 333.9 788.0 803.3 788.0 803.3 788.0 803.3 1978 QI QII QIII 338.9 343.1 345.8 338.6 342.4 345.8 338.3 342.2 345.8 819.1 834.0 846.4 818.3 832.3 845.9 817.8 831.8 845.9 7.8 8.6 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 December 1978 January 6.1 7.5 5.8 7.2 5.4 6.8 Quarterly Average: 1977 QIV 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.0 5.0 3.1 5.6 4.5 4.0 5.3 4.6 4.2 QIII '77-QI '78 QI '78-QIII '78 6.3 4.1 6.1 4.3 6.0 4.4 Annual: QIII '77-QIII '78 5.3 5.3 5.3 1978 QI QII QIII 7.5 8.2 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.3 5.9 7.5 6.8 6.5 7.2 6.8 6.8 7.9 6.7 7.7 6.7 7.6 6.9 7.3 7.3 Semi-Annual: FOMC Range 4-6 6k-9 Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-3 Alt. A Alt. B (cont'd) Bank Credit Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 November December 1978 January 1365.3 1374.9 1385.3 1365.3 1374.6 1384.4 1365.3 1374.4 1383.6 870.5 877.8 884.9 870.5 877.8 884.6 870.5 877.8 884.3 1977 QIII 1329.8 1365.8 1329.8 1365.7 1329.8 1365.6 847.7 870.1 847.7 870.1 847.7 870.1 1395.4 1424.0 1449.0 1393.7 1419.7 1445.0 1392.4 1418.0 1443.4 891.3 909.6 890.8 908.4 925.7 890.2 907.2 924.0 QIV 1978 QI QII QIII Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 December 1978 January Quarterly Average: 1977 QIV 8.4 9.1 10.8 8.2 8.6 10.8 10.6 10.6 10.6 9.2 7.6 7.4 7.4 9.4 7.3 10.3 8.1 10.2 7.8 10.0 7.6 8.7 8.5 9.4 9.2 9.0 9.9 7.7 9.6 Annual: QIII '77-QIII '78 9.0 FOMC Range 10.1 8.9 9.5 7.9 7.6 Semi-annual: QIII '77-QI '78 QI '78 QIII '78 QIII 10.1 9.3 9.7 8.2 7.9 8.2 7.5 QII 10.8 10.1 9.7 7.9 7.4 7.2 8.7 8.2 7.0 1978 QI 8.0 8.0 927.6 7.1 8-10% 7-10 in a 3-1/2 to 9-1/2 per cent annual rate range. If the staff's December projection of 6 per cent annual rate of increase in M-1 proves correct, growth in the fourth quarter would be at a 6-1/2 per cent annual rate, significantly below the rates of growth for the second and third quarters. For the year 1977 (measured from QIV '76 to QIV '77) M-1 would grow at around a 7-1/4 per cent rate. (12) Growth in M-2 over the December-January period is likely to be in a 6-10 per cent annual rate range under alternative B. Commercial bank savings deposits, after contracting in November, are likely to resume modest growth over the period, even though market yields will remain above rate ceilings on such deposits, as the most interest sensitive holders have probably shifted to other instruments. Small denomination time deposits with maturities in excess of 4 years, whose rates are still above those on marketable securities of comparable maturity, are also expected to grow moderately in the DecemberJanuary period. As in October-November, however, most of the expansion in the interest bearing component of M-2 is likely to occur in large denomination time deposits not subject to interest rate ceilings. (13) At thrift institutions, inflows over the months ahead are likely to remain well below the unusually rapid pace of JulyOctober, when these institutions were apparently successful in capturing a substantial volume of maturing wild card deposits from commercial banks. Saving deposits at S&L's and MSB's have already slowed considerably in reflection of the higher level of market yields, but longer-term deposits at these institutions, where offering rates remain above market yields, can be expected to grow at a relatively rapid pace in December-January. While thrift institutions have only limited ability to supplement -10deposit flows with ceiling-free large denomination deposits, they appear to be in a position to fulfill their record level of mortgage commitments by reducing liquid asset holdings and continuing to draw on FHLB advances. (14) 6 If the Federal funds rate remains near its present per cent level over the inter-meeting period, as envisioned under alternative B, short-term rates probably will remain fairly near their current levels. Credit demands are not likely to exert upward pressures on short-term rates in the weeks immediately ahead. The Treasury is not expected to expand the supply of bills until late January or early February. In private short-term markets, banks are likely to issue a sizable amount of new large, negotiable CD's in coming weeks, though the amount issued will probably drop below the exceptional volume of the fourth quarter, as other deposit inflows pick-up somewhat and loan demands moderate. (15) Over the longer-run, however, short-term rates can be expected to rise further. Given the 11 per cent increase in nominal GNP projected for the first three quarters of 1978, further increases in interest rates seem required to restrain M-1 growth during that period to about the 4¾ per cent annual rate necessary to achieve the midpoint of the Committee's longer-run range of 4-6½ per cent for the QIII '77-QIII '78 period. The Federal funds rate may have to begin rising around mid-January and reach a level of about 7¾ per cent by spring, as shown in Appendix I. This would probably be accompanied by -11a rise of 1½ percentage points or so in other short rates and of about a ½ percentage point in bond yields. Mortgage rates may rise somewhat less, given prospective Federal support programs. (16) Alternative C contemplates an increase in the Federal funds rate to the mid-point of a 6¾-7¼ per cent range between now and mid-January. With additional monetary restraint in place sooner, the staff would expect growth in the monetary aggregates to be somewhat slower over the next few months than under alternative B. Consequently, interest rates would have to rise somewhat less next year in order to achieve the mid-points of the Committee's longer-run ranges for the QIII '77-QIII '78 period. (17) In light of the recent moderation in the growth of the monetary aggregates, an increase in the Federal funds rate to the 7 per cent mid-point of the alternative C range over the next few weeks would probably surprise market participants and involve a substantial upward adjustment in short rates--with the 3-month bill rate, for example, rising to about 6½ per cent. Longer-term rates would also probably be subject to upward pressures, but the large volume of investible funds from insurance companies and pension funds would very likely restrain the net increase in such rates. Member bank borrowing from the discount window would rise substantially, and pressure for another increase in the discount rate would develop. (18) An easing in the Federal funds rate to 6 per cent, as envisioned under alternative A, could stimulate a substantial downward adjustment in short-term market rates. However, the lower level of -12rates could not be maintained for long if growth in the aggregates is to be held within the Committee's longer-run ranges. Thus, interest rates would soon need to begin rising, and would reach levels next year higher than those necessary under alternatives B and C. Under alternative A, M-1 is likely to expand at a 6¼ per cent average rate of growth over the fourth quarter of 1977 and the first quarter of 1978, requiring interest rate increases sufficient to hold M-1 growth in the second and third quarters of 1978 to about a 4 per cent annual rate. The projected Federal funds rate pattern to achieve such a slowdown calls for an increase to around 8¼ per cent in the third quarter of 1978. Such rate levels would likely warrant consideration of adjustments to Regulation Q ceilings by next summer. -13Directive language (19) Given below are alternatives for the operational paragraphs of the directive. The first formulation places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates. The second formulation, like the directive adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on money market conditions; it shows--in strikethrough form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting. As suggested below, the particular language needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions-are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, at present, it expects the annual growth rates over the December-January period to be within the ranges of ____ ____ to ____ per cent for M-1 and to ____ per cent for M-2. In the judgment of the Committee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weeklyaverage Federal funds rate of about ____ per cent. If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that -14growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the mid-points of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____ to ____ per cent. IN THE CONDUCT OF DAY-TO-DAY OPERATIONS, ACCOUNT SHALL BE TAKEN OF EMERGING FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (OR TO ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT EASIER OR SOMEWHAT FIRMER MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, the Committee seeks to maintain the weekly-average Federal funds rate at about [DEL: level] ____, current the so long as M-1 and M-2 appear to be growing over the[DEL: November-December]DECEMBER-JANUARY period -15at annual rates within ranges of[DEL: 1to 7]____ cent and [DEL: 5 to 9]____ TO ____ TO____ per per cent, respectively. If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly-average Federal funds rate shall be 6¼-to-6¾] modified in an orderly fashion within a range of[DEL: ____ TO ____ per cent. IN THE CONDUCT OF DAY-TO-DAY OPERATIONS, ACCOUNT SHALL BE TAKEN OF EMERGING FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. Appendix I Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 QIV 6k 6k 6k 1978 QI 64 7-1/8 7k QII 71 7% 7-5/8 QIII 8k 71 7-5/8 Appendix II Implied Velocity Growth Rates v (GNP/M 12 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 IV 5.2 5.2 5.2 1978 I 4.7 5.1 5.4 II 5.6 6.0 5.9 III 6.8 5.9 5.7 4.0 4.0 Y2 (GNP/M2 ) 1977 IV 1978 I 2.9 3.3 II 3.2 3.7 III 4.0 3.4 Appendix III Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QIII 1977 to QI 1978 Consistent with Proposed Alternatives (Seasonally adjusted annual rates) Alt. A 5.9 Alt. B 0.8 Total Reserves 6.3 6.0 5.7 Monetary Base 8.7 8.6 8.5 Nonborrowed Reserves Alt. C -0.1 On average, nonborrowed reserves expanded at about a 3 per cent annual rate, total reserves at about a 5-1/2 per cent rate, and the monetary base at an 8-1/2 per cent rate in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter growth rates for total reserves and the monetary base are at or somewhat below the growth rates for the 1977 QIII to 1978 QI period thought to be consistent with the alternatives presented to Committee, as shown in the table above. Thus, a modest acceleration in the growth of these reserve aggregates will be needed over the months ahead. On the other hand, recent growth in nonborrowed reserves has been below the longer-run growth thought consistent with Alternative A, but above the growth rates shown for Alternatives B and C. The estimates for nonborrowed reserves shown in the table assume no change in the discount rate from its current level of 6 per cent. Increases in the discount rate would, of course, shift the composition of total reserves more toward nonborrowed than borrowed reserves. Appendix Table IV-1 MONEY STOCK--M-1 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Base Period Ending Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 74IV 751 7511 75111 75IV 761 7611 7611I 76IV 771 7711 77111 I 0.7 II 3.9 7.1 III 5.0 7.2 7.3 IV 4.4 5.6 4.9 I 4.1 4.9 4.2 2.7 2.9 II 4.8 5.6 5.3 4.6 5.6 8.5 III 4.7 5.4 5.1 4.5 5.2 6.4 4.4 IV 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.0 5.6 6.5 5.6 I 4.9 5.4 5.2 4.9 5.3 6.0 5.1 5.5 4.3 II 5.3 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.9 6.5 6.0 6.5 6.5 8.7 III 5.7 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.4 7.0 6.7 7.3 7.5 9.2 9.7 IV p 5.8 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.5 7.0 6.7 7.2 7.3 8.2 8.2 6.7 III2/ 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.6 6.1 5.3 Based on quarterly average data. Based on attainment of mid-point of current longer-run range. Projected Appendix Table IV-2 MONEY STOCK--M-2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Base Period Ending Period 1975 1976 1977 74IV 751 7511 75111 75IV 761 7611 76111 76IV 771 7711 77111 I 5.8 II 8.1 10.4 III 8.9 10.4 IV 8.3 9.2 8.5 I 8.7 9.4 9.1 8.4 10.2 II 9.1 9.7 9.6 9.3 10.6 10.9 III 9.1 9.7 9.5 9.3 10.2 10.2 9.4 IV 9.6 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.9 11.1 11.2 13.1 I 9.7 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.7 10.3 II 9.7 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.6 10.7 10.6 11.0 9.9 9.5 III 9.8 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.9 10.2 10.1 10.7 IV p 9.6 10.0 9.9 9.9 10.3 10.3 10.1 9.6 9.4 9.3 8.0 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.3 10.5 10.3 *9.1 1978 1/ 2/ p III- / 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.4 Based on quarterly average data. Based on growth rate projected under alternative B. Projected 9.3 Appendix Table IV-3 MONEY STOCK--M-3 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)- Ending Ending Base Period Period 74IV 1975 1976 1977 1978 I 751 7511 7511 751V 761 7611 7611I 76IV 771 7711 77111 7.9 II 10.4 12.9 III 11.5 13.3 13.7 IV 11.1 12.2 11.8 9.9 I 11.3 12.1 11.8 10.9 11.9 II 11.4 12.2 12.0 11.4 12.1 12.3 III 11.5 12.1 11.9 11.5 12.0 12.1 11.9 IV 12.0 12.5 12.5 12.2 12.8 13.1 13.5 15.2 I 11.9 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.5 11.8 II 11.8 12.2 12.1 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.5 11.1 10.4 III 11.9 12.3 12.2 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.6 11.7 11.6 13.0 IV p 11.8 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.3 11.6 11.6 12.1 III /' 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.0 9.7 9.5 I/ Based on quarterly average data. 2/ Based on growth rate projected under alternative B. Projected p 11.3 8.7 CHART I 12/16/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW r- MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 340 320 300 _LLLLI OADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 S-i 280 800 9% growth for 5% growth. I 1976 1977 A I S 17 I I 0 1977 N D CHART 2 12/16/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES BANK CREDIT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF MONTH - 900 - 860 - 820 - 780 - 740 BILLIONS 1976 1977 CHART 3 12/16/77 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS I PER CENT -- 7 INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT WE KLY AVERAGES FEDERAL FUNDS/RATE / - 8 7 - 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I - 12 5 4 1976 1977 1978 1976 1977 1978 1976 1977 1978 Table 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS -FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES DEC. 16, 1977 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply road Narrow Period (Ml) ___ (M2) Total U.S. Govt. Time & Savings Deposits Other Than C's Deposits 1/ Total avings the r 462.6 465.9 469.4 (472.8) 217.8 218.4 218.3 1218.8) 244.8 C C D Nondeposit Sources of Funds MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 330.4 333.7 333.2 (334.8) 1977--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. : 792.9 799.6 802.6 (807.6) 525.8 532.2 10.7 10.3 6.7 ( 10.5) 540.3 (547.3) -39.3 23.8 -7.5) 9.5 8.5 16.4) 63.2 251.1 (254.0) 66.4 70.9 1 74.4) 13.2 11.1 15.0) 10.9 -4.4 70.91 247.5 57.7 57.4 60.0 ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1977--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR. 8.2 10.6 '5.3) ( 8.8 10.4 7.4) ( 9.2 10.3 7.8) -18.2 15.2 ( -62.41 7.9 10.1 4.5 7.5) 58.8 -44.9 -419.4 ( 60.6) 7.6 14.6 18.3 15.5) 8.b 8.6 9.0 8.7) 8.9 3.3 -0.5 2.7) 8.4 13.2 17.5 13.9) 0.0 60.8 81.3 59.2) ( 17.0) 8.9) 1.1) 15.8) 72.31 ( 9.4 10.4 S 8.8) 5.1 9.6 1.8) 9.8 10.9 6.6) 8.5 6.6 S 4.8) 1 QUARTERLY-AV 1977--2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 8.4 9.3 6.6) ( 8.3 10.0 (13.2) ( 10.8 15.0 ( 11.8) -1.9 ( 3.2 47.5) MONTHLY 1977--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 7.3 12.0 -1.8 ( 5.8 NOV.-DEC. ( 2.0) 6.0) 11.7) MEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1977-NOV. DEC. NOTE: 1/ Z/ 2 9 16 23 30 331.3 333.8 334.1 331.5 333.1 798.0 535.0 537.4 539.5 542.2 543.2 466.7 468.0 468.9 470.3 470.7 218.3 218.2 218.3 218.2 217.9 248.5 249.0 250.6 254.2 252.7 68.2 69.4 803.0 801.8 803.8 9.1 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.1 7 334.9 806.3 10.0 544.2 471.4 218.2 253.2 72.8 801.8 P - PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS, INCLUDES TREASURY DEPUSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. INCLUDES BORROWINGS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, MENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUb GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. 70.5 71.8 72.5 60.7 56.1 58.1 63,4 63.3 SECURITIES SOLD UNDER FOREIGN BRANCHES AGREE- CONFIDENTIAL (FR.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED [__ Period MONTHLY Total Reserves BANK RESERVES DEC. 16, 1977 REQUIRED RESERVES Nonborrowed Reserves I I Monetary Base III Total Required Private Demand II Total Time Deposits II 125,144 126,109 126,956 (127,778) 35v418 35,686 35,757 (35.993) 21,279 21,364 21,437 (21,411) 12,388 12,456 12,646 (12 855) 3.9 13.2 2.5) 6.1 2.6 1 15.1) Gov't. and Interbank LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1977-SEPT. UCT. NOV. DEC. 35,627 35,897 36,012 (36,2051 35,001 34,591 35,151 (35,629) ( 6.5 8.8 6.5) S 7.2) b.2 10.2 8.4) ( 3.0 9.0 5.6) 1.9 3.4 2.9) 7.2 9.6 8.5) ( -0.5 9.1 3.8 6.4) ( 1,751 1,846 1,674 1,728) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1977-2ND OTf. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTT. 4.6 4.6 ( 7.3 8.1 6.5) ( 3.5 8.6 5.7) 1 QUARTERLY-AV 1977-2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. ( ( 3.0 10.2 S4.6) 4.0 6.3 ( 8.6) MONTHLY 1977-SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. S 5.1) NOV.-DEC. 14.6 -14.1 1 19.4 16.3) S18.0) 8.2 9.3 8.1 7.8) -0.8 9.1 2.4 7.9) 7.9) 5.2) 3.5 5.9 3.0 -1.5) 0.8) -O.I 6.6 18.3 19.8) 19.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLZONS 1977-NGV. OEC. 16 23 30 36,112 36,013 36,158 35,908 35,941 34,999 35,126 35,624 35,027 34,868 126,660 126,503 127,036 12o,840 127,470 35,847 35,858 35,741 35,919 35,464 21,432 21,586 21,472 21,352 21,340 12,535 12594 12,620 12,670 12,731 1.881 1,676 1.649 1,897 1,413 7 14 35,891 36,227 35,308 35,717 127,081 127,680 35,$56 35,931 21,263 21,476 12,801 12 630 1,792 1,625 2 U NOTEs * RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. m ASSOCIATED a WITH CHANGES i IN RESERVE a REQUIRMENT RATIO. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 16, 1977 TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ million, not seasonally adjusted) I Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Within Net Chane 1 year 2/ -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 171 77 1976--Qtr. III Qtr. IV 1977--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III 942 July Aug. Sept. -1,136 636 1,385 Oct. Nov. -1,877 -736 Nov. 5 12 Dec. 124 -304 2 9 16 23 6/ 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 167 129 196 1,070 642 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 881 794 345 232 160 192 1,557 1,294 89 200 68 114 470 -- 116 --681 -- -128 -1,021 -60 333 -- --- -568 - -376 - -- -360 - -.. I --- ~-- Within 1 year ~-~ 1 - 5 5 - 10 -- -- 37 -41 Over 10 36 Total -.. -96 -- 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 115 1,398 436 604 14.3 26.9 -- -- 552 4,881 -1,353 1,883 -4,380 -736 -6,530 2,996 -- -- --- --- -- -- -- -- 40 --- 87 --- 520 ----- -- --- -- 645 -- --- --------- -- -- -- -- - -.. -- -- 99 4,561 380 -- ----- .. .-. -- -..- -.. .. 166 10.2 108 977 7.0 58.4 1.3 3.8 -- --- -- -459 -304 -397 --- - -- -569 -376 -.. -.. -- - - - 1.5 4,175 -2,331 -2,861 -- -- -4,771 1,744 33 -- --- -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3.607 -1,159 113 --- --- -- Net RP's 6/ -- 233 -- ---- --- -- -- -- Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ 2,738 3,666 4,273 S S - 41.1 ~~-- 592 400 1,665 824 469 7 14 LEVEL--Dec. 14 (in billions' 4/ 5/ 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 -- -394 21p 28 1/ 2/ 3/ Total -- Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ 1,680 959 1,021 -459 19 26 30 5 - 10 1,164 2,126 886 1977--June 1977--Oct. 1 -5 - " (FR) .8 -- -360 .. 7.3 .585 327 106.7 -5,482 -1,333c -3,846 5,898 -2,690 -4,479 -1,726 8,439 -1,167 1,317 -4,553 -4.9 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Excludes redemptions, Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 16, 1977 (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Underwriting Syndicate Positions Corporate Municipal Bills Coupon Issues Bonds Bonds 8,896 3,046 334 343 3,668 175 0 34 7,234 1,729 3,017 -1,445 295 0 350 116 1976--Nov. Dec. 6,876 8,005 2,418 2,443 79 145 1977--Jan. Feb. 6,406 4,450 2,320 1,650 Mar. 4,906 Apr. 4,567 May June July Aug. Sept. 1976--High Low 1977--High Low Oct. Nov. Excess** Reserves Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit** ] Total Seasonal 8 New York 38 Others 655 242 34 -8,161 -12,744 -180 24 8 -2,367 - 6,908 513 -111 1,861 20 131 8 -8,742 -4,234 -13,975 - 8,206 217 167 257 274 72 53 22 13 -6,289 -7,168 -11,618 -11,449 82 72 202 226 265 198 68 72 10 12 -6,421 -5,604 -11,504 -11,503 972 103 162 214 103 13 -5,661 -10,912 696 101 173 192 73 14 -6,586 -11,409 3,072 4,752 123 206 20 142 228 217 213 154 206 262 30 54 -5,693 -5,341 -10,175 -10,332 3,899 2,533 4,812 -309 -933 -313 143 71 128 209 199 230 275 200 209 323 1,084 626 60 102 112 -6,391 -5,581 -7,333 -11,012 -11,452 -11,120 4,142 *3,617 -360 *610 83 36 186 210 210 2 55p 1,305 861p 112 83p -6,480 -6,971 -11,511 -11,825 1977--Oct. 5 12 19 26 3,898 3,868 3,930 4,712 -777 -216 -496 -90 54 63 108 108 263 200 166 116 401 169 84 202 883 1,051 1,861 1,444 117 112 112 116 -6,699 -8,525 -6,416 -5,391 - 8,730 -12,135 -13,061 -11,294 Nov. 2 9 16 23 30 4,203r 3,662r 4,428 *3,326 *2,818 -203 547r 426 *575 *1,203 0 40 21 48 295 124 140 306 271 221 265 155 417 -11 457p 1,113 887 534 879 -5,011 -7,494 -7,340 -7,447 -11,554 -13,734 -12,638 -10,748 1,073p 104 87 81 84 74p -6,165 -10,259 Dec. 7 14 21 *3,397 *5,059 *1,026 *447 160 215p 281 380p 583p 509p 70p 6 5 p -7,728p 9 9 - ,08 p -11,617p -11,781p 35 p 304p 28 Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financing by NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * ** Strictly confidential. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. r Revised. TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) Treasury Federal Funds 90-Day Short-Term Bills Commercial CD's New Paper Issue-NYC 1-Year 90-119 Day 60-Day 90-Day STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 16, 1977 Long-Term U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 3-yr 7-yr 20-yr Corp.-Aaa Utilit Municipal Home Mortgages New Recently Bond Primary Secondary Market Issue Offered Buyer Cony. FNMA Auc.GNMA Sec. (12) (13) (14) (15) (10) (11) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 1976--High Low 5.58 4.63 5.53 4.27 6.32 4.62 5.90 4.63 5.63 4.40 5.75 4.50 7.52 5.65 7.89 6.33 8.17 7.23 8.95 7.93 8.94 7.84 7.13 5.83 9.10 8.70 9.20 8.39 8.45 7.57 1977--High 6.58 4.47 6.27 4.41 6.62 4.67 6.60 4.63 6.45 4.48 6.63 4.50 7.32 5.83 7.57 6.59 7.84 7.26 8.35 7.90 8.34 7.95 5.93 5.45 8.95 8.65 8.89 8.46 8.24 7.56 1976--Nov. Dec. 4.95 4.65 4.75 4.35 5.00 4.64 4.98 4.66 4.84 4.68 4.94 4.50 6.09 5.68 6.86 6.37 7.64 7.30 8,17 7.94 8.18 7.93 6,29 5.94 8.81 8.79 8.66 8.45 7.93 7.59 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.61 4.68 4.69 4.62 4.67 4.60 5.00 5.16 5.19 4.72 4.76 4.75 4.61 4.58 4.58 4.68 4.70 4.72 6.22 6.44 6.47 6.92 7.16 7.20 7.48 7.64 7.73 8.08 8.22 8.25 8.09 8.19 8.29 5.87 5.89 5.89 8.72 8.67 8.69 8.48 8.55 8.68 7.83 7.98 8.06 Apr. 4.73 4.54 5.10 4.75 4.57 4.67 6.32 7.11 7.67 8.26 8.22 5.73 8.75 8.67 7.96 May June 5.35 5.39 4.96 5.02 5.43 5.41 5.26 5.42 5.04 5.24 5.16 5.35 6.55 6.39 7.26 7.05 7.74 7.64 8.33 8.08 8.31 8.12 5.75 5.62 8.83 8.86 8.74 8.75 8.04 7.95 July Aug. 5.42 5.90 5.19 5.49 5.57 5.97 5.38 5.75 5.16 5.65 5.28 5.78 6.51 6.79 7.12 7.24 7.60 7.64 8.14 8.04 8.12 8.05 5.63 5.62 8.95 8.94 8.72 8.76 7.96 8.03 Sept. 6.14 5.81 6.13 6.09 5.95 6.01 6.84 7.21 7.57 8.07 8.07 5.51 8.90 8.74 8.02 Oct. Nov. 6.47 6.51 6.16 6.10r 6.52 6.52 6.51 6.54 6.33 6.44 6.53 6.56 7.19 7.22 7.44 7.46 7.71 7.76 8.23 8.28 8.22 8.25 5.64 5.49 8.92 8.92 8.82 8.86 8.16 8.19 5 12 6.41 6.41 5.98 6.22 6.29 6.52 6.31 6.43 6.20 6.38 6.30 6.63 6.97 7.18 7.32 7.47 7.63 7.72 8.15 8.20 8.14 8.23 5.60 5.70 8.93 8.93 8.77 -- 8.09 8.16 19 6.50 6.27 6.62 6.59 6.38 6.63 7.28 7.47 7.73 8.22 8.21 5.67 8.93 8.84 8.18 26 6.49 6.11 6.53 6.57 6.37 6.56 7.28 7.50 7.74 8.28 8.24 5.59 8.90 -- 8.19 2 9 16 23 6.50 6.58 6.42 6.51 6.14 6.17 6.10 6.06 6.55 6.58 6.51 6.48 6.55 6.57 6.56 6.52 6.41 6.45 6.45 6.45 6.55 6.60 6.55 6.55 7.32 7.24 7.17 7.19 7.56 7.47 7.41 7.42 7.81 7.80 7.74 7.73 8.35 8.29 8.24 8.23 8.32 8.26 8.24 8.19 5.55 5.51 5.45 5.45 8.90 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.86 -8.86 -- 8.18 8.21 8.17 8.18 30 6.55 6.04 6.49 6.53 6.45 6.55 7.22 7.45 7.75 8.26 8.23 5.47 8.95 8.85 8.18 7 6.51 6.05 6.50 6.54 6.45 6.55 7.27 7.54 7.81 8.35 8.34 5.54 8.95 -- 8.23 14 21 6.49 6.06 6.51 6.60 6.50 6.70 7.28p 7.57p 8.37p 5.55 n.a. 8.89 8.24 6.50 54 6. p 6.08 6.01 6.53 6.48 6.55 6.63 7.27 7.26p 7.55 7.57p Low 1977--Oct. Nov. Dec. 7 84 . p 8 3 . 6p 28 Daily--Dec. 8 15 - --- 7.82 7.85p Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. NOTE: For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are fore 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. DEC. 16, 1977 Appendix Table 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Bank Reser Period Total Nonborrowed Money Stoak Measures oCrt V Monetary Base Total Loans and Invest- M1 M2 N 3 4 MS M 6 M 7 _ments 1 2/ 2 3 4 10 7 5 11 (PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH) ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 7.0 -0.2 1.0 7.7 3.2 1.2 9.1 5.9 6.9 10.1 3.9 6.0 5.1 4.4 5.6 7.7 0.3 10.9 7.1 11.1 12.8 10.6 6.5 7.1 9.0 9.7 10.3 8.9 10.5 10.0 9.5 10.1 10.2 1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976 -1.5 3.6 -1.3 3.7 6.9 6.8 6.7 8.9 5.6 5.5 10.3 10.9 11.8 13.1 6.0 8.0 8.9 11.1 9.2 10.3 9.6 10.4 IST HALF 1977 2.9 2.3 7.0 11.6 6.4 9.7 10.8 9.0 10.3 10.2 10.4 2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY: QUARTERLYS 4TH QTR. 1976 7.6 7.7 8.0 11.2 7.2 13.4 14.5 12.4 13.8 11.9 11.6 IST OTR. 2NO QTR. 3RD QTR. 1977 1977 1977 -1.8 6.5 8.8 -2.4 4.6 4.6 5.1 8.2 10.2 10.6 12.6 8.6 3.6 8.2 10.6 8.5 8.8 10.4 10.0 9.9 13.4 7.3 9.1 9.3 9.2 10.0 12.6 10.1 9.7 11.9 10.5 9.9 11.7 QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH QTR. 1976 4.4 4.8 7.1 10.8 6.5 12.5 14.4 9.8 12.7 11.1 11.0 1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 1977 1977 1977 2.7 3.0 9.0 2.6 1.9 3.4 6.8 7.2 9.6 9.5 13.3 9.8 4.2 8.4 9.3 9.9 9.2 10.3 11.3 10.0 12.4 9.3 8.5 9.7 10.9 9.4 11.9 10.7 9.5 11.4 10.8 9.6 11.3 11.8 4.9 12.6 5.6 9.1 7.7 11.1 8.6 0.0 7.7 10.6 13.1 12.6 13.4 9.7 13.4 11.9 13.7 10.8 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.9 -13.1 -3.1 13.0 1.5 4.8 16.9 9.8 -0.5. 9.1 3.8 10.4 -13.3 -4.3 14.1 -3.1 2.9 14.9 -15.4 14.6 -14.1 19.4 10.6 -0.2 5.0 11.8 6.2 6.4 14.2 8.1 8.2 9.3 4.7 15.9 10.9 15.7 12.0 9.6 9.5 12.3 3.8 13.5 11.8 5.4 0.8 5.4 19.4 0.7 4.5 18.3 5.9 7.3 12.0 -1.8 9.7 7.1 8.6 13.5. 4.7 8.1 16.6 6.4 7.9 10.1 4.5 11.4 8.9 9.4 12.4 7.3 9.8 16.1 11.5 12.3 12.5 7.3 8.7 7.0 6.2 11.7 5.4 10.0 13.6 6.5 7.5 13.6 10.5 10.8 8.7 8.0 11.3 7.6 10.8 14.3 11.2 11.7 14.6 10.8 10.9 11.4 7.8 10.6 7.7 10.5 13.3 10.8 11.4 14.0 10.5 11.0 11.7 .5 10.8 7.9 10.6 13.0 10.6 11.2 13.7 10.4 MONTHLY 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. P 8.1 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY Table 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES DEC. Appendix 16, 1977 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Bnk Credit Sank Reserves I Period Period Total Loans and Invest- Money Stock Measure onborrowed Monetary Base 2 3 34,174 34,015 34,465 33,447 33,885 34,412 104,380 110,394 118,054 695.2 725.5 788.2 283.1 294.8 312.4 612.4 664.3 740.3 981.5 1092.6 1237.1 701.4 746.5 803.5 1070.5 1174.7 1300.3 1181.2 1308.3 1439.1 1221.6 1351.1 148.8 1976--NOV. DEC. 34,325 34,465 34,253 34,412 117,304 118,054 782.6 788.2 310.4 312.4 732.3 740.3 1223.4 1237.1 794.6 803.5 1285.6 1300.3 1426.6 1439.1 1476.1 1488.8 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. 34,778 34,397 34,308 34,710 34,3k6 34,204 119,100 119,077 119,572 791.3 801.8 809.1 313.8 314.0 315.4 746.3 750.7 756.1 1248.9 1258.2 1268.1 809.3 814.0 818.2 1312.0 1321.5 1330.3 1452.2 1466.0 1475.5 1502.4 1517.1 1527.8 APR. MAY JUNE 34,680 34,723 34,862 34,606 34,517 34,599 120,749 121,376 122,027 819.7 827.9 834.5 320.5 320.7 321.9 764.6 767.6 772.8 1281.2 1289.0 1299.5 826.2 829.9 836.6 1342.8 1351.3 1363.5 1488.5 1498.1 1511.2 1541.6 1551.8 1565.5 JULY AUG. SEPT. 35,352 35,641 35,627 35,029 34,580 35,001 123,468 124,297 125,144 841.1 849.7 852.4 326.8 328.4 330.4 783.5 767.7 792.9 1316.9 1329.5 1343.1 846.3 850.9 856.2 1379.8 1392.7 1406.3 1528.0 1541.7 1556.3 1582.4 1596.4 1611.3 P 35,897 36,012 34,591 35,151 126,109 126,956 862.0 870.5 333.7 333.2 799.6 802.6 1357.1 1365.3 865.9 873.5 1423.4 1436.2 1574.4 1588.2 1629.7 1643.8 12 19 26 35,171 36,408 35,693 34,120 34,547 34,249 124,989 126,688 126,202 334.5 333.3 334.5 800.1 799.0 800.8 865.5 865.0 867.9 NOV. 2 9 16 23 30P 36,112 36,013 36,158 35,908 35,941 34,999 35,126 35,624 35,027 34,868 126,860 126,503 127,038 126,840 127,470 331.3 333.8 334.1 331.5 333.1 798.0 801.8 803.0 801.8 803.8 866.3 871.2 873.6 873.6 876.3 DEC. 7P 35,691 35,306 127,081 334.9 606.3 879.1 Total M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 10 1 ments . 4 S 5 8 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 MONTHLY: OCT. NOV. MEEKLY: 1977-OCT. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENIS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION OEPOSITS. M3, M5, M6, M7, 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FUR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY NOTE: WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR DEC. 16, 1977 APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES De d Period Currency 1 Demand Deposits Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD's Total 2 3 Total Savings 4 5 / ANNUALLY: (Pr 1974 1975 1976 III CD's Other 6 7 Mutual Savings Credit Bank & Union S&L -Securities Shares Shares 1 8 9 Savings / Bonds Other Short Term Private U.S.Gov't Short-term Securities Assets Assets 1/ 10 11 12 cent annual rates of growth) 10.3 b.8 9.6 3.6 2.9 4.3 14.7 8.0 8.1 10.1 11.7 15.2 6.5 17.5 25.0 12.7 7.8 7.7 36.5 -6.1 -23.5 5.6 15.5 15.6 12.3 19.4 17.8 4.7 6.2 6.9 13.5 33.4 7.5 29.6 -1.0 19.2 10.7 8.0 4.0 4.6 6.3 9.7 14.1 15.2 27.5 19.8 3.9 11.3 -28.9 -21.1 13.8 16.2 16.6 17.6 6.3 7.2 16.6 -1.4 21.6 15.2 6.5 5.7 10.5 12.1 15.0 9.5 0.0 12.2 16.1 6.4 12.5 16.5 2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY1ST hALF 1976 2ND hALF 1976 1ST HALF 1977 QUARTERLY: 4TH QTR. 1976 6.6 7.4 15.7 18.1 26.2 10.9 1.3 15.9 18.2 6.2 1ST QTR. 2ND 0iR. 3RD0 TR. 1977 1977 1977 8.4 6. 11.4 2.2 6.2 10.1 9.5 9.5 8.5 11.9 9.4 10.4 16.3 5.1 9.6 8.1 13.2 11.1 -7.0 10.9 -4.4 12.0 11.2 17.3 16.4 13.8 23.8 o.1 6.6 7.0 17.1 25.4 10.2 -18.9 17.2 18.5 7.4 -16.1 31.1 8.3 4.9 4.1 20.9 15.3 5.2 QUARIERLY-AV: 4TH OTR. 1976 8.1 6.0 IST QTR. 2NO QTR. 3RD lTR. 1977 1977 1977 7.5 9.3 10.0 3.1 8.3 9.1 12.5 8.3 10.0 14.0 9.8 10.9 21.1 B.5 6.b b.0 10.8 i5.0 1.9 -1.9 3.2 13.3 10.9 15.2 16.7 15.0 19.3 6.7 6.1 6.5 11.1 13.6 5.5 6.0 4.5 -2.1 8.9 16.1 17.1 18.8 16.8 5.4 26.1 13.5 8.0 -1.9 21.2 15.3 13.8 15.8 18.8 6.6 6.7 -3.4 -44.9 6.9 10.4 5.9 13.1 7.2 5.7 15.7 5.6 12.6 9.1 9.6 4.1 -3.1 5.7 21.6 -1.5 4.b lb.7 6.0 5.4 1..6 -5.4 11.0 10.7 6.7 b.9 b.3 11.2 11.0 0.9 7.6 14.6 16.3 12.9 11.7 10.7 9.5 7.6 10.7 15.4 6.8 b.6 b.6 9.0 23.2 14.6 10.4 10.9 4.5 0.0 5.1 14.6 B.9 3.3 -0.5 4.2 9.5 10.5 8.3 10.3 20.5 24.7 0.0 8.4 13.2 17.5 -3.8 3.6 -20.9 -11.6 13.6 30.8 -20.7 7.6 0.0 60.6 81.3 14.2 11.4 10. 10. 11.1 11.8 15.1 16.3 17.8 14.9 10.8 15.4 15.2 16.0 11.8 11.7 17.4 20.0 19.7 30.4 27.0 15.8 6.7 6.6 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 8.0 7.9 7.9 17.9 68.9 5.u 3.3 11.6 9.9 0.0 6.5 6.1 8.1 8.0 I1.2 -11.9 7.4 12.9 19.5 7.' MONTHLY: 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEd. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. P 1/ GROwTH RATES ARE bASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRFIMINARY. LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONIH AND END OF 0.0 4.8 12.1 21.5 28.2 18.4 15.6 11.2 2.2 6.6 o.6 6.5 6.5 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B DEC. 16, 1977 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Deposits and Savings Timee and "Savi Depot T__ Currency Demand Deposits Period 1 Other Than CD's Tota CD' Total Savings Other ShortTerm U.S. G t Sec Other Prvate Shortterm NonDeposit Funds 1/2/ 2/ 10 11 12 Mutual Credit Savings Union Savings Bank & S&L Shares Bonds 1/ Sharesi Total Gov't Demnd / 2 3 4 5 6 67.8 73.7 80.5 215.3 221.0 231.9 416.3 451.7 491.1 329.3 369.6 427.9 135.8 160.5 201.8 193.5 209.1 226.0 89.0 82.1 63.3 341.5 395.2 457.8 27.6 33.0 39.0 63.3 67.3 71.9 47.4 66.3 66.9 40.4 42.8 49.7 37.6 33.7 51.4 6.0 8.3 11.2 1976--NOV. DEC. 80.2 80.5 230.2 231.9 484.2 491.1 422.0 427.9 197.5 201.8 224.5 226.0 62.2 63.3 452.6 457.8 38.4 39.0 71.5 71.9 69.5 66.9 49.5 49.7 48.2 51.4 13.0 11.2 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. 81.l 81.8 82.2 232.7 232.1 233.2 495.6 500.0 502.8 432.5 436.7 440.6 205.7 208.2 210.0 226.8 228.6 230.6 63.1 63.3 62.2 463.2 467.6 471.5 39.5 40.0 40.6 72.3 72.7 73.0 67.9 71.8 72.1 50.2 51.1 52.3 49.9 50.3 51.4 10.0 11.7 11.2 APR. MAY JUNE 83.1 83.6 84.0 237.4 237.1 238.0 505.7 509.2 514.8 444.1 446.9 450.9 211.9 211.7 212.7 232.2 234.2 238.2 61.6 62.3 63.9 475.6 480.0 484.7 41.0 41.4 42.0 73.4 73.8 74.2 72.3 73.0 73.6 53.1 53.8 54.3 50.8 54.6 53.5 10.8 10.6 10.1 JULY AUG. SEPT. 85.1 85.5 86.4 241.7 242.9 244,0 519.5 522.5 525.8 456.7 459.3 462.6 213.6 216.2 217.8 243.1 243.1 244.8 62.8 63.2 63.2 490.8 498.3 505.7 42.7 43.4 44.5 74.6 75.0 75.5 73.6 74.0 74.5 54.4 54.7 55.0 53.3 55.6 57.7 11.8 10.2 10.7 OCT. NOV. P 87.1 87.8 e46.6 245.5 532.2 540.3 465.9 469.4 218.4 218.3 247.5 251.1 66.4 70.9 512.0 516.6 45.5 46.1 76.0 76.5 75.0 75.5 55.3 55.6 57.4 60.0 10.3 6.7 12 19 26 86.9 67.1 87.3 247.6 246.1 247.2 531.0 531.8 533.4 465.6 465.7 466.3 218.3 218.3 218.4 247.3 247.4 247.9 65.4 66.1 67.1 56.2 60.2 58.9 8.4 10.0 10.2 NOV. 2 9 16 23 30P 87.5 87.6 87.7 87.7 88.1 243.8 246.Z 246.4 243.8 245.1 535.0 537.4 539.5 542.2 543.2 466.7 468.0 468.9 470.3 470.7 218.3 218.2 218.3 218.2 217.9 248.5 249.8 250.6 252.2 252.7 68.2 69.4 70.5 71.8 72.5 60.7 56.1 58.1 63.4 63.3 9.1 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.1 DEC. 7P 88.0 246.9 544.2 471.4 218.2 253.2 72.8 7 8 9 13 14 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 MONTHLY: WEEKLY: 1977-OCT. 1/ 2/ ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAG LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SECURITY RP'S AND MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND SHARES. 3/ BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. 4/ INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL KESERVE BANKS. P - PRELIMINARY 10.0 

Federal Reserve (1977, December 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19771220

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19771220,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Dec},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19771220},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}