Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC October 14, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared or the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I FOMC October 14, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M-1 growth picked up to a 7.7 per cent annual rate in September, and for the September-October period is projected at an 8.8 per cent annual rate, almost 2 percentage points above the upper end of the Committee's range. Growth in the time and savings deposit component of M-2 has shown little net change in recent weeks, despite further advances in short-term market interest rates. Thus, M-2 is projected to increase at about an 8.6 per cent annual rate over September and October, somewhat over the Committee's range. Funds continued to flow into deposit accounts at nonbank thrift institutions in September at a rate only slightly below August's very strong pace. Reflecting the recent strong expansion of demand and time deposits, nonborrowed reserves are expected to rise at a 9.2 per cent annual rate in the September-October period. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over September-October period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates M-1 2 to 7 8.8 M-2 4 to 8 8.6 Memorandum: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 6 to 6-1/2 Avg. for statement week ending Sept. 21 6.10 28 6.35 5 12 6.41 6.41 Oct. -2(2) In light of the policy agreed upon by the FOMC at its September meeting, the Desk began to aim for a Federal funds rate of 6-1/4 per cent on the day following that meeting. Thereafter, as incoming data suggested that growth rates of the key aggregates would be near or above the FOMC's ranges, the funds rate was raised to 6-3/8 per cent and then to the 6-1/2 per cent upper end of its range. Short-term market inter- est rates have generally increased about 30 to 65 basis points since the September FOMC meeting, and long-term market yields have moved up 10 to 20 basis points. As short-term rates rose relative to the discount rate, member bank borrowing at the discount window increased, reaching an average of $1,051 million in the statement week just passed. The System's $2.5 billion direct loan to the U.S. Treasury, extended on September 30 in anticipation of the lapse in the Treasury's temporary debt ceiling, was repaid on October 4, 1977. (3) Aggregate demands for credit have been fairly well maintained in recent weeks. Although outstanding short-term business debt was about unchanged in September following two months of moderate growth, corporations continued to issue fairly substantial amounts of long-term debt. State and local governments and the U.S. Treasury have raised a substantial volume of funds in securities markets in recent weeks, and households have apparently continued to borrow heavily in the mortgage market. With sales of autos and other durables slackening somewhat in September, however, expansion in consumer instalment credit probably slowed a bit from August's strong pace. -3(4) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Past Twelve Months 1975 & Sept. 1976 Average over Sept. '76 '77 Nonborrowed reserves 1.5 3.8 Total reserves 0.4 Monetary Base Past Six Months Sept. '77 Past Three Months Sept. '77 Past Month Sept. '77 over June '77 over Aug. '77 4.9 5.2 16.3 5.5 8.0 9.3 1.2 6.4 8.2 9.4 10.4 8.6 5.1 7.7 9.5 10.6 7.7 10.0 10.7 9.8 10.5 8.1 12.3 12.5 11.8 13.3 12.0 M-4 (M-2 plus CD's) 7.0 9.9 9.3 9.3 7.5 M-5 (M-3 plus CD's) 10.2 11.8 11.4 12.4 11.5 Month-end basis 6.5 10.5 9.9 8.5 3.7 Average of Wednesdays 6.2 10.8 9.4 9.2 6.7 -1.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 over Mar. '77 Concepts of Money M-1 (Currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M-2 (M-1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 0.0 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions -- which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective Developments (5) Displayed below for Committee consideration are four alter- native sets of longer-run ranges for the monetary aggregates applicable to the QIII '77-QIII '78 period. Also shown are the ranges currently in place that pertain to the QII '77-QII '78 period. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D Current M-1 4-7 4-6½ 4-6 3-5½ 4-6½ M-2 6½-9 6-8½ 5½-8 5-7½ 7-9½ M-3 8-10½ 7½-10 7-9½ 6½-9 8½-11 Bank credit 7½-10½ 7-10 7-10 6-9 7-10 (6) Alternative B retains the growth range for M-1 adopted by the Committee in July. However, the associated ranges for M-2 and M-3 are lower than those currently in place. The staff has assumed that a higher average level of market interest rates would be required in the QIII '77-QIII '78 period than had been earlier contemplated to keep M-1 growth at the mid-point of a 4-6½ per cent range in the face of an apparently strengthened demand for cash balances. Higher interest rates would work to constrain growth in the time and savings deposit component of M-2 and M-3 by more than would be implied by the mid-points of the current ranges for those aggregates. Alternatives A and C encompass, respectively, slightly higher and slightly lower longer-run growth ranges for the aggregates. Alternative D reflects a larger downward adjustment in growth ranges, including a reduction in the M-1 range sufficient to compensate for the third-quarter overshoot in M-1 growth. -6(7) The implications of mid-points in the proposed growth ranges for M-1 and M-2 for growth rates in these aggregates over 15-month and 18-month periods beginning in QII '77 and QI '77, respectively, and ending in QIII '78 are shown in the table below.1/ Growth Rates in Monetary Aggregates Assuming Growth over QIII '77-QIII '78 Period at near Mid-Points of Alternative Ranges (Annual rates, compounded quarterly) Period A B C D M-1 QIII '77-QIII '78 QII '77-QIII '78 QI '77-QIII '78 Memo: QII '77-QII '78 5.6 6.4 6.8 5.3 6.1 6.6 5.0 5.9 6.4 4.2 5.3 5.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 5.6 M-2 QIII '77-QIII '78 QII '77-QIII '78 QI '77-QIII '78 Memo: QII '77-QII '78 (8) 7.9 8.5 8.6 7.5 8.1 8.3 7.0 7.8 8.0 6.4 7.3 7.6 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.5 It may be seen that under alternative D growth in M-1 at around a 4¼ per cent rate over the QIII '77-QIII '78 period would lead to expansion in the QII '77-QIII '78 period at a 5¼ per cent annual rate --the mid-point of the current longer-run range. Growth would be somewhat higher if measured from QI '77 since there was also an overshoot in the second quarter for which alternative D does not compensate. Growth of 1/ Implications for growth over longer time periods are shown in appendix IV for alternatives B and D. To permit the Committee to evaluate proposed ranges in relation to growth in the aggregates over a variety of past periods, appendix V contains growth triangles for M-1, M-2 and M-3. These tables show base periods for each quarter from QIV '74 to QII '77 and terminal periods from QI '75 to QIII '77. -7M-1 of around 5¼ per cent in the QIII '77-QIII '78 period, as called for under alternative B, would be associated with expansion over the 15-month QII '77-QIII '78 period at an annual rate of close to 6 per cent, in the upper part of the FOMC's current longer-run range. Under all of the alternatives, however, growth rates in M-2 over the more extended 15- and 18-month periods would generally be near the mid-point, or in the lower half, of its current 7-9½ per cent range. (9) Proposed shorter-run specifications to guide Desk opera- tions in the interval between FOMC meetings (and that are believed consistent with longer-run proposals) are summarized below for Committee consideration. (More detailed, and longer-term, data are shown in the tables on pp. 8 and 9). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C (or D) Ranges for October-November M-1 3½-8½ 3-8 2½-7½ M-2 6-10 5½-9½ 5-9 5¾-6¼ 6¼-6¾ 6¾-7¼ Federal funds rate (intermeeting period) (10) Alternative B includes a Federal funds rate centered on the recently prevailing level of about 6½ per cent. With such a funds rate, M-1 growth during October-November may be in a 3-8 per cent, annual rate, range. A relatively rapid growth appears to be in train for October, given data thus far available for the month. The mid-point of the October- November range assumes a substantially slower rate of growth in November Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M-2 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D September October November 330.4 333.7 330.4 333.1 333.5 330.4 333.1 333.3 330.4 333.1 333.3 793.0 799.0 803.4 793.0 799.0 802.9 793.0 799.0 802.4 793.0 799.0 802.4 1977 QIII QIV 328.5 334.1 328.5 333.9 328.5 333.7 328.5 333.4 788.1 803.8 788.1 803.3 788.1 802.9 788.1 802.3 1978 QI QII QIII 338.3 342.3 346.8 337.7 341.5 345.8 337.2 340.8 344.8 336.1 338.9 342.3 819.1 834.3 850.4 817.7 832.0 846.9 816.2 829.6 843.5 814.3 826.2 838.6 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 October November 9.8 2.2 9.8 1.4 9.8 0.7 Quarterly Average: 1977 QIV 6.8 6.6 6.3 4.6 4.5 QIII 5.0 4.7 5.3 5.0 4.2 4.3 4.7 Semi-Annual: QIII '77-QI '78 QI '78-QIII '78 6.0 5.0 5.6 4.8 5.3 4.5 4.6 3.7 5.3 5.0 4.2 1977 1978 QI QII Annual: QIII '77-QIII '78 333.1 9.1 6.6 6.0 7.6 7.4 7.7 7.9 9.1 5.9 9.1 5.1 9.1 5.1 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.2 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.0 5.8 6.0 7.5 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.0 7.5 7.0 6.4 Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M-3 Bank Credit Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D 1977 September October November 1342.6 1356.1 1367.6 1342.6 1356.1 1366.9 1342.6 1356.1 1366.2 1342.6 1356.1 1366.2 845.8 851.8 856.9 845.8 851.8 856.6 845.8 851.8 856.3 845.8 851.8 856.3 1977 QIII QIV 1329.6 1365.4 1329.6 1364.7 1329.6 1363.9 1329.6 1362.9 839.9 856.5 839.9 856.3 839.9 856.1 839.9 855.9 1978 QI QII 1394.9 1422.8 1451.3 1392.9 1419.4 1446.1 1390.7 1416.1 1440.9 1386.4 1409.5 1432.2 875.3 893.8 913.8 874.7 892.6 912.3 874.1 891.4 910.5 872.7 887.9 905.4 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 October November 12.1 10.2 12.1 9.6 12.1 8.9 12.1 8.9 8.5 6.8 8.5 6.3 8.5 6.3 Quarterly Average: 1977 QIV 10.8 10.6 10.3 10.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 QIII 8.6 8.0 8.0 8.3 7.6 7.5 7.9 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.4 8.6 8.2 8.8 8.4 7.9 8.6 7.9 7.0 7.9 Semi-annual: QIII '77-QI '78 QI '78-QIII '78 9.8 8.1 9.5 7.6 9.2 7.2 8.3 8.6 8.1 8.3 7.8 7.5 Annual: QIII '77-QIII '78 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.6 8.4 7.8 QIII 1978 QI QII 7.7 8.8 8.5 9.0 8.8 -10(which would represent a pattern similar to last year's), and is consistent with growth in M-1 from the third to the fourth quarter at about a 6 cent annual rate. per Such a moderation in M-1 growth from the advanced rates of the past two quarters is likely as a result of the lagged effect on money demand of the rise of about 1¼ percentage points in short-term rates that has occurred since mid-year. (11) The staff expects, however, that even further increases in interest rates would be required as time goes on if growth in M-1 over the QIII '77-QIII '78 period is to be held to the mid-point of the longer-run 4-6 per cent range associated with alternative B. This would entail M-1 growth in the area of 4 -5 per cent, annual rate,during the first three quarters of 1978. Given staff GNP projections and our assess- ment of the likely strength of money demand, the Federal funds rate may peak out at about 7 per cent in the second quarter of 1978, as shown in appendix I. (12) Our projection of the Federal funds rate still assumes some downward shift in demand for M-1 relative to GNP in the year ahead. However, given the rapid growth in M-1 of the past two quarters, we have assumed a somewhat slower downward shift than in the year ending in QIII '77. If the downward shift proceeds even more slowly, or stops entirely, upward interest rate projected. pressures would be larger than we have On the other hand, a rebound in economic confidence could well be accompanied by an increased willingness to spend out of existing cash balances by businesses and consumers, as appears to have occurred in earlier stages of the current economic expansion; if this takes place, a rebound in velocity need not entail significant interest rate pressures. -11(13) to be in a 5 -9 Growth in M-2 over the October-November period is likely per cent annual rate range under alternative B. The time and savings deposit component of M-2 is expected to expand by only slightly more than its reduced August-September pace. We continue to anticipate little, if any, growth in outstanding large CD's at banks-including the large-denomination time deposits that are included in M-2-as short-term credit demands on banks remain moderate. In addition, market rates are above bank ceiling rates on time deposits under $100,000 and maturing in less than four years, and this may be tending to constrain inflows of such deposits. (14) If the Federal funds rate remains around 6 per cent over the next few weeks, short-term market rates generally may show little further change. There has been a substantial upward adjustment of Treasury bill rates in the last few days, and this market appears to have fully adjusted to a 6½ per cent funds rate. In long-term markets, an enlarged volume of corporate and municipal bond offerings is expected in October and November. In addition, longer-term markets will have to absorb a sizable Treasury debt offering to be announced October 21. At that time the Trea- sury is expected to offer $5½ to $6 billion of new issues to refund about $2½ billion of publicly-held issues maturing in mid-November and to raise about $3 to $3½ billion of new cash. Recent upward adjustments in intermediate- and longer-term rates may have been sufficient to accomodate this enlarged volume of bond offerings, but some further rise cannot be ruled out. -12(15) A tightening of the funds market to the mid-point of a 6¾-7¼ per cent range over the next few weeks is contemplated under alternatives C or D--alternatives that over the longer-run involve lower growth ranges for the monetary aggregates than alternative B. Such a rise in the funds rate in the weeks immediately ahead would probably be associated with a 2½-7½ per cent annual rate range for M-1 and a 5-9 per cent range for M-2. (16) Under both alternatives C and D, interest rates would probably have to rise further in late 1977 and in 1978 to achieve the mid-points of their respective longer-run ranges for the monetary aggregates. Rate increases would, of course, be larger under alternative D, which involves M-1 growth over the QIII '77-QIII '78 period at a midpoint rate of 4¼ per cent. The funds rate under this alternative would be expected to reach around 8¼ per cent by the third quarter of 1978, as compared with a level of 7-5/8 per cent under alternative C. Under alternative D, we have assumed an upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceilings on time deposits of ¼ percentage point across the board in the second quarter of next year. (17) A rise in the funds rate to around 7 per cent over the next few weeks would probably entail an increase in the 3-month bill rate to around 6-3/4 per cent, with commensurate adjustments in other short-term rates. Long-term rates may be somewhat more sensitive to increases in short rates over the period ahead than has been the case in the past several months. Deposit flows to thrift institutions would very likely -13begin to slow and this could cause mortgage yields to begin rising; given the current wide spread of mortgage over bond rates, bond yields could also be expected to adjust upwards. Still, upward pressures on longer- term market rates would be moderated by the sizable cash flow to insurance companies and pension funds. (18) The easing in money market conditions over the next few weeks under alternative A would be consistent with a shift to somewhat higher longer-run growth ranges than those of alternative B. A decline in the funds rate would have to be soon reversed, though, given the staff's GNP projections. We would expect the funds rate to rise to around 7-1/4 per cent by the second quarter of 1978 under this alternative. -14Directive language (19) Given below are alternatives for the operational paragraphs of the directive. The first formulation, like the directive adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates; it shows--in strike-through form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting. on money market conditions. The second formulation places main emphasis As suggested below, the particular language needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges preceding paragraph. for monetary aggregates cited in the Specifically, at present, it expects the September-October] OCTOBER-NOVEMBER annual growth rates over the[DEL: period to be within the ranges of [DEL: 2-to-7]____ for M-1 and [DEL: 4-to-8]____ to ____ to ____per per cent for M-2. cent In the judg- ment of the Committee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly-average Federal funds rate of about [DEL: 6-1/4] ____ per cent. If, giving, approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the midpoints of the indicated ranges, the -15operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of [DEL: 6 to 6-1/2]____ to ____ per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or to achieve somewhat easier or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, the Committee seeks to maintain the weekly-average Federal funds rate at about ____ per cent, so long as M-1 and 1-2 appear to be growing over the October-November period at annual rates within ranges of ____ to ____ per cent, respectively. to ____ per cent and ____ If,giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly-average -16- Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____ to ____ per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. Appendix I Projected Federal Funds Rate Alt. B Alt. C 6-3/8 6% 6-7/8 7 7 7-1/8 7-3/8 7-7/8 Alt. A 1977 QIV 1978 QI Alt. D QII 7k 7k 7-5/8 8-1/8 QIII 7k 7 7-5/8 8k Appendix II Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QIII '77 to QI '78 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alit. C Alt. D Alt. A Alt. B -0.9 -1.5 2.6 -3.9 Total Reserves 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 Monetary Base 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 Nonborrowed Reser*ves Shown above are 6-month growth rates in various reserve measures consistent with the midpoints of the alternative longer-run paths for the monetary aggregates presented in this blue book. Appendix III Implied Velocity Growth Rates V1 Alt. A (GNP/M Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D 1977 IV 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 1978 1 6.1 6.4 6.5 7.1 II 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.4 III 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 V2 (GNP/M 2 ) 1977 IV 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 1978 I 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.3 II 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.9 III 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 Appendix IV Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates From Earlier Quarters to QIII '78 Implied by Mid-points of Selected Alternative Longer-run Ranges (Per cent annual rates, compounded quarterly) M-1 Base Quarter: Alt. A M-2 Alt. D Alt. B M-3 Alt. D Alt. B Alt. D 1975 II III IV 5.8 5.7 6.0 5.5 5.3 5.6 9.3 9.2 9.5 9.0 8.9 9.1 11.1 10.9 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.6 1976 I II III IV 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.6 9.4 9.2 9.2 8.6 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.0 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.0 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.4 1977 I II III 6.6 6.1 5.3 5.8 5.3 4.2 8.3 8.1 7.5 7.6 7.3 6.4 9.7 9.6 8.8 9.0 8.7 7.7 Note: Alternatives A and C would encompass growth rates slightly higher and slightly lower, respectively, than those shown for alternative B. Appendix Table V-1 MONEY STOCK-M 1 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Base Period Ending Period 74IV 1975--1 0.7 7511 75111 75IV 7611 76111 76IV 771 II 3.9 7.1 III 5.0 7.2 7.3 IV 4.4 5.6 4.9 4.1 4.9 4.2 2.7 2.9 II 4.8 5.6 5.3 4.6 5.6 8.5 III 4.7 5.4 5.1 4.5 5.2 6.4 4.4 IV 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.0 5.6 6.5 5.6 6.7 4.9 5.4 5.2 4.9 5.3 6.0 5.1 5.5 4.3 II 5.3 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.9 6.5 6.0 6.5 6.5 8.7 III 5.7 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.4 7.0 6.7 7.3 7.5 9.2 1976--I 1977--I I/ 751 Based on quarterly average data. 7711 9.7 Appendix Table V-2 MONEY STOCK-M 2 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly) Base Period Ending Period 74IV 751 7511 75111 75IV 761 7611 76III 76IV 7711 1975--1 II 8.1 10.4 III 8.9 10.4 IV 8.3 9.2 8.5 6.6 8.7 9.4 9.1 8.4 10.2 II 9.1 9.7 9.6 9.3 10.6 10.9 III 9.1 9.7 9.5 9.3 10.2 10.2 IV 9.6 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.9 11.1 11.2 13.1 9.7 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.7 10.3 II 9.7 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.6 10.7 10.6 11.0 9.9 9.5 III 9.8 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.9 10.2 10.1 1976--1 1977--1 1/ 10.5 Based on quarterly average data. 9.4 10.7 Appendix Table V-3 MONEY STOCK-M 3 (Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)- Base Period Ending Period 741V 751 7511 75111 75IV 761 7611 76111 761V 771 7711 1975--1 II 10.4 12.9 III 11.5 13.3 13.7 IV 11.1 12.2 11.8 11.3 12.1 11.8 10.9 11.9 11.4 12.2 12.0 11.4 12.1 12.3 11.5 12.1 11.9 11.5 12.0 12.1 11.9 12.0 12.5 12.5 12.2 12.8 13.1 13.5 15.2 11.9 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.5 11.8 II 11.8 12.2 12.1 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.5 11.1 10.4 III 11.9 12.3 12.2 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.6 11.7 11.6 1976--1 II III 1977--1IV I/ Based on quarterly average data. 12.9 10/14/77 CHART 1I MONETARY AGGREGATES MONEY SUPPLY M NARROW r...1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 340 340 - 320 -335 7% growth for -Oct. 5/77) -300 330 I280 growth S 800 325 780 I 1 I I 320 760 740 720 700 -680 1976 1977 J A S 1977 O N CHART 2 10/14/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES BANK CREDIT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF MONTH - 900 - 860 - 820 - 780 - 740 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 36 1976 1977 CHART 3 10/14/77 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES EY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT 8 INTEREST RATES Long-term LY AVERAGES - . 6 7 F.R. DISCOUNT RATE - 7 -- s FEDERAL BILLIONS OF DOLLAI - 5 4 I 1976 1977 3 1976 1977 PER CENT Table 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES OCT. ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply road Narrow (M2) 1 2 Period Perio(Ml) Total U.S. Govt. Deposits 1/ 3 Time & Savings Deposits Other Than CD's Other Savins 5 6 7 Total CD's 8 14, 1977 Nondeposit Sources of Funds 2( 9 MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 1977-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. 326.8 328.3 330.4 (333.1) 783.5 787.7 793.0 (799.0) ( 11.6 10.2 10.7 11.6) 456.7 459.4 462.6 (465.9) 519.5 522.5 525.8 (531.2) 213.8 216.2 217.8 (218.2) 242.9 243.1 244.8 (247.7) ( 62.8 63.2 63.2 65.3) 55.9 57.9 1 ANNUAL GROWTH OUARTERLY 1C/7--1R1 CTh. 2ND OTR. 3PD OTR. 3.8 8.2 10.6 6.5 8.8 10.5 0.0 -39.3 23.8 9.5 9.5 8.5 11.9 9.4 10.4 15.4 4.0 10.4 b.7 14.2 10.4 -7.0 10.9 -4.4 4.2 8.4 9.j 9.9 9.2 10.3 -48.0 -18.2 15.2 12.5 8.3 10.0 14.0 9.8 11.0 21.9 7.9 6.8 7.1 11.6 14.6 1.9 -1.9 3.2 ( 18.3 5.5 7.7 9.0) ( 16.6 6.. 8.1 9.1) ( 15.4 7.1 8.4 8.6) ( 8.5 13.5 8.9 2.2) 21.6 1.0 b.4 14.2) ( -20.7 7.6 0.0 39.9) ( 8.6) ( 8.6) ( 8.5) ( 5.6) 11.4) ( 19.9) QUARTERLV-AV 1977-1ST OTR. 2ND (TR. 3RD CTR. MCNTHLY 1977--JULY AU(. SFPT. U0C . SEPT.-OCT. WEEKLY ( 11.0 6.9 7.6 12.3) I ( 10.0) 82.4) ( LEVELS-SblL 1977-PT. OCT. NOTE: 1/ 2/ 202.0 -162.7 58.8 ( 100.9) 7 14 21 2H 329.7 331.7 330.6 3s9.5 791.5 794.1 793.2 792.6 7.3 8.6 12.9 12.3 524.7 525.1 525.5 527.0 461.8 462.4 4t2.6 463.1 217.6 217.8 217.9 218.0 244.2 244.6 244.7 245.1 62.9 6&.7 62.9 63.9 5 334.4 799.1 13.1 529.7 464.7 218.2 246.5 6b.0 58.3 65.2 59.7 63.2 P - PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. INCLUDES ,_RROINGS FROM UTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN IHE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TL REPURCHASE, AND OTHhR LIABILITIFS FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO DWN FOREIGN BRANCHES LOANS SLLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN KPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. (-URODOLLAk BORROWINGS), CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS IIFOMC TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period MONYHLY LEVI L ANNUAL Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 12j.4.6H , 1;4,i97 1 ,l191 1126 1,01) j5,071 35,441 35,418 (35,694) f0,998 11,18 21,279 (21,3571 -4. 4.0t 5.2 5.1 6.4" 10.4 -1.1 7, -.1 13.2 .t 2.6 1.9 3.6 6.8 7.2 9.7 Z.J 3.5 8.6 5.0 3.0 10.2 S.5 4.l. 6.3 -I ILLiL'LN 1977--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. PERCET REQUIRED RESERVES 35,3535,641 35,676 (36,012) 35,029 34,560 35,050 (35,110) 12 ,.4 1,3,9 12.ba36 (12,''4 ,6 1, '>l, 1,751 I 1,d,3) 1 (.,OwlTH QiJu Th-kLY 1977--1ST ZNh 3RD -1.8 6.5 9.3 OTR. QTR. OTR. -.9 3.7 3.* I.1 QUAP TERLY- V 1977--151 QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD TR. 2.7 3.0 9.2 MONTHLY 1977-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT.-OCT. I 16.9 9.8 1.2 11.3) I 6.2) 14. 14.' -15.4 16.3 2.1) 1 ( 8.6 8.7) 1 I ( 8.7) ( 9.2) 8.1 12.5 12.5 -0.8 9. . 4.3) ( 23.1 12.b 3.5 4.4) ( 7.5 0.5 -0.1 6.4) ( 3.9) ( 3.1) WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLINS 1977-StPT. OCT. 7 14 21 Z2 35,497 35,890 35.395 35,750 34,6b6 35,553 34,657 35,031 124,596 125,203 124,998 125,745 35,266 35,569 35,398 35,311 21,025 21449 21,290 21,339 12,396 12,412 12,369 12,36R 1 844' 1,708 1,719 1 604 5 12 36.285 35,251 35,402 34,195 125,971 124,977 35,865 35,023 21,316 21,091 12,346 12,403 2 199 1,529 d NOTE: RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURREN1 PROJECTIONS. ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREHENT RATIO. TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES1/ ($ million, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Within Net Change 2/ 1 year Period 1977--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III 1,164 2,126 1977--Apr. May June 1,392 196 1,070 642 171 77 881 794 345 232 160 192 1,557 1,294 192 109 116 997 526 681 325 171 96 165 152 128 1,680 959 1,021 Sept. 1- S - 3 10 -176 17 450 24 31 362 7 14 21 28 -603 296 53 1,363 116 681 96 128 5 -10 - 37 -41 173 233 -1,136 636 1,385 5 Over 10 592 400 1,665 824 469 - 1,021 138 35 -- -- 113 S S - 36 33 -- -- - - Total Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ Net RP's 6/ 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 115 1,398 436 392 304 2,738 3,666 4,273 -4,771 4,175 -2,331 2,176 2,822 -3,207 4,561 346 &#45;&#45;&#45; 380 -- ---254 1,744 ----1,159 552 4,881 -2,861 -1,353 1,883 -2,009 -4,604 3,347 -1,028 3,521 ---- - -- -- - 57 - 347 - S6 - 333 -- 28.1 5 12 19 26 124 -459 60 LEVEL--Oct. 12 (in billions) 42.1 13.0 Oct. 167 129 Within 1 year -208 942 July Aug. Sept. 1977--Aug. 886 Total 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 -468 863 45 Over 10 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 1,280 -886 5 -10 Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 -490 7,232 1976--Qtr. III Qtr. IV 1 -5 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 14, 1977 - - 41 - 500 - 40 -- 87 -- 520 -- 10.5 6.7 58.4 -603 -6,625 4,519 24 6,816 - - - - 271 -- &#45;&#45;&#45; &#45;&#45;&#45; - &#45;&#45;&#45; 553 1,363 ----- &#45;&#45;&#45; &#45;&#45;&#45; &#45;&#45;&#45; &#45;&#45;&#45; -459 -5,482 -1,333 1.3 3.7 1.5 7.3 107.8 -2.1 .8 645 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions 1976--High Low Underwriting IMember Syndicate Positions Corporate Municipal Excess** Reserves Bonds Bonds STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 14, 1977 (FR) Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit** 8 New York 38 Others 242 24 -8,161 -2,367 -12,744 513 -111 1,665 20 -8,742 -4,234 -13,975 Bills Coupon Issues 8,896 3,668 3,046 175 334 0 655 -180 Tol Seasonal - 6,908 1977--High Low 7,234 1,729 3,017 -1,445 278 0 1976--Sept. 7,838 1,509 95 205 63 -5,703 - 9,716 6,271 Dec. 6,876 8,005 1,832 2,418 2,443 94 79 145 221 257 274 94 72 53 -6,428 -6,289 -7,168 -10,527 -11,618 -11,449 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. 6,406 4,450 4,906 2,320 1,650 972 82 72 103 265 198 214 68 72 103 -6,421 -5,604 -5,661 -11.504 -11,503 -10,912 Apr. May June 4,567 3,072 4,752 696 123 206 101 20 142 192 213 154 73 206 262 -6,586 -5,693 -5,341 -11,409 -10,175 -10,332 July Aug. Sept. 3,899r 2,533r *4,812 -309r -933r *-313 143 71 128 275 200 259p 323 1,084 626p -6,391 -5,581 6 8 - , 52p -11,012 -11,452 -11,233p 598 585 901 1,665 1,393 -6,675 -6,458 -5,534 -4,969 -4,892 - 9,792 -7,285 -7,990 -7,441 -6,433p -11,729 -12,979 -12,249 -6,776p -11,284p - 8,930p -10,282p Oct. Nov. 3 10 17 24 31 2,176 1,910 2,171 3,338 2,906 1,265 -494 -1,445 -1,231 -379 76 78 52 76 69 424 103 202 28 371 Sept. 7 14 21 28 4,562 4,998 *5,927 *3,976 263 -268 *-682 *-272 96 190 126 158 231 321 -3 Oct. 5 12 19 *3,898 *3,868 *-777 *-216 1977--Aug. 54 2 5p p 636 337 738 719p 420p 251p 883p 1,051p 439 - 8,570 -11,765 -12,313 -12,161 -10,279 - 8,604p NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financing by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * ** Strictly confidential. Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) Treasury CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 14, 1977 Short-term Bills Commercial CD's New U.S. Govt.-Constant Paper Issue-NYC _ Maturity Yields 1-Year 90-119 Day 60-Day 90-Da 3-vr 7-vr 20-vr (6) (7) (8) (9) (3) (4) (5) Long-term Corp.-Aaa Utility Municipall Home Mortgages I New Recently Bond Primary Secondary Market ssue Offered Buyer Conv. FNMA AucGNMA Sec. (12) (13) (14) (15) (10) (11) Federal Funds (1) 90-Day (2) 1976--High Low 5.58 4.63 5.53 4.27 6.32 4.62 5.90 4.63 5.63 4.40 5.75 4.50 7.52 5.65 7.89 6.33 8.17 7.23 8.95 7.93 8.94 7.84 7.13 5.83 9.10 8.70 9.20 8.39 8.45 7.57 1977--High Low 6.41 4.47 6,22 4.41 6.52 4.67 6.43 4.63 6.38 4.48 6.63 4.63 7.17 5.83 7.47 6.59 7.78 7.26 8.34 7.90 8.33 7.95 5.93 5.48 8.95 8.65 8.79 8.46 8.16 7.56 1976--Sept. 5.25 5.08 5.50 5.33 5.11 5.24 6.66 7.41 7.78 8.29 8.33 6.51 8.98 8.88 8.10 5.03 4.95 4.65 4.92 4.75 4.35 5.19 5.00 4.64 5.10 4.98 4.66 4.90 4.84 4.68 5.04 4.94 4.50 6.24 6.09 5.68 7.16 6.86 6.37 7.70 7.64 7.30 8.25 8.17 7.94 8.24 8.18 7.93 6.30 6.29 5.94 8.93 8.81 8.79 8.75 8.66 8.45 7.98 7.93 7.59 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.61 4.68 4.69 4.62 4.67 4.60 5.00 5.16 5.19 4.72 4.76 4.75 4.61 4.58 4.58 4.68 4.70 4.72 6.22 6.44 6.47 6.92 7.16 7.20 7.48 7.64 7.73 8.08 8.22 8.25 8.09 5.87 8.72 8.48 7.83 8.19 5.89 8.67 8.55 7.98 8.29 5.89 8.69 8.68 8.06 Apr. 4.54 4.96 5.02 5.10 5.43 5.41 4.75 5.26 5.42 4.57 5.04 5.24 4.67 5.16 5.35 6.32 6.55 6.39 7.11 7.26 7.05 7.67 7.74 7.64 8.26 8.33 8.08 8.22 5.73 8.75 8.67 7.96 June 4.73 5.35 5.39 8.31 8.12 5.75 5.62 8.83 8.86 8.74 8.75 8.04 7.95 July Aug. Sept. 5.42 5.90 6.14 5.19 5.49 5.81 5.57 5.97 6.13 5.38 5.75 6.09 5.16 5.65 5.95 5.28 5.78 6.01 6.51 6.79 6.84 7.12 7.24 7.21 7.60 7.64 7.57 8.14 8.04 8.07 8.12 5.63 8.95 8.72 7.96 8.05 8.07 5.62 5.51 8.94 8.90 8.76 8.74 8.03 8.02 3 10 17 24 31 5.80 5.70 5.94 5.99 6.02 5.37 5.40 5.57 5.52 5.56 5.82 5.88 6.05 6.04 5.99 5.49 5.60 5.80 5.89 5.88 5.50 5.50 5.76 5.75 5.72 5.65 5.65 5.90 5.86 5.85 6.74 6.81 6.85 6.78 6.72 7.27 7.30 7.29 7.18 7.11 7.66 7.69 7.68 7.58 7.52 8.10 5.63 8.95 -- 8.04 8.07 8.11 8.01 7.97 8.05 5.63 8.95 8.75 8.04 8.04 5.63 8.93 -- 8.08 8.03 5.58 8.93 8.77 8.04 8.02 5.54 8.88 -- 7.97 7 14 21 28 5.97 6.05 6.10 6.35 5.57 5.80 5.87 5.93 5.98 6.14 6.10 6.21 5.88 6.01 6.17 6.22 5.70 5.91 5.97 6.20 5.75 6.00 6.00 6.28 6.75 6.84 6.86 6.94 7.15 7.22 7.22 7.26 7.52 7.57 7.59 7.61 8.02 8.08 8.08 8.14 8.03 5.48 8.90 8.74 7.96 8.07 8.09 5.51 5.50 8.90 8.90 -8.74 8.07 8.01 8.12 5.51 8.90 -- 8.08 5 12 19 6.41 6.41 5.98 6.22 6.29 6.52 6.31 6.43 6.20 6.38 6.30 6.63 6.97 7.17p 7.3.2 7.47p 7.63 7,71p 8.15 2 8. 0p 8.14 8.21p 5.60 5.70 8.93 n.a. 8.77 -- 8.09 8.16 6 13 6.41 6.50p 6.13 6.36 6.42 6.64 6.38 6.50 6.98 7 .21p 7.34 7.47p 7.63 7.73p Oct. Nov. Dec. May 1977--Aug. Sept. Oct. Daily--Oct. - - - - NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for shortterm forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. OCT. 14, 1977 Appendix Table 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Money Stock Measures Bank Reservesdt Period Total Nonborrowed Monetary Base Total Loans and Invest- MI M2 M3 M4 M5 M M7 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ments 1 2 3 4 (PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH) ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 7.0 -0.2 1.0 7.7 3.2 1.2 9.1 5.9 6.9 10. 3.9 6.0 5.1 4.4 5.6 7.7 8.3 10.9 7.1 11.1 12.8 10.6 6.5 7.1 9.0 9.7 10.3 8.9 10.5 10.0 9.5 10.1 10.2 2/ SEM1-ANNUALLYV 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1976 1976 -1.5 3.6 -1.3 3.7 6.9 6.8 6.7 8.9 5.6 5.5 10.3 10.9 11.8 13.1 6.0 8.0 8.9 11.1 9.2 10.3 9.6 10.4 IST HALF 1977 2.9 2.3 7.0 10.5 6.4 9.7 10.8 9.0 10.3 10.2 10.4 QUARTERLYS 47H QTR. 1976 7.6 7.7 8.0 11.2 7.2 13.4 14.5 12.4 13.8 11.9 11.6 1ST 01R. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 1977 1977 1977 -1.6 6.5 9.3 -2.4 4.6 5.2 5.1 8.2 10.4 9.5 11.2 8.5 3.8 8.2 10.6 8.5 8.8 10.5 10.0 9.9 13.3 7.3 9.1 9.3 9.2 10.0 12.4 10.1 9.7 11.8 10.5 9.9 11.6 QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH QTR. 1976 4.4 4.8 7.1 10.8 6.5 12.5 14.4 9.8 12.7 11.1 11.0 1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 1977 1977 1977 2.7 3.0 9.2 2.6 1.9 3.6 6.8 7.2 9.7 8.8 11.9 9.4 4.2 5.4 9.3 9.9 9.2 10.3 11.3 10.0 12.3 9.3 8.5 9.7 10.9 9.4 11.9 10.7 9.5 11.3 10.8 9.8 11.2 1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. -6.2 6.0 11.8 4.9 -4.8 4.9 12.6 5.6 5.1 7.1 9.1 7.7 7.6 13.5 11.1 8.6 1.6 13.7 0.0 7.7 10.0 16.1 10.6 13.1 13.3 16.9 12.6 13.4 6.2 13.5 9.7 13.4 10.b 15.3 11.9 13.7 b.6 14.1 10.8 10.5 8.7 13.8 10.5 10.3 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. 10.9 -13.1 -3.1 13.0 1.5 4.8 16.9 9.8 1.2 10.4 -13.3 -4.3 14.1 -3.1 2.9 14.9 -15.4 16.3 10.6 -0.2 5.0 11.8 6.2 6.4 14.2 8.1 8.6 3.7 14.7 10.0 14.0 10.3 8.9 9.3 12.3 3.7 5.4 0.8 5.4 19.4 0.7 4.5 18.3 5.5 7.7 9.7 7.1 8.6 13.5 4.7 8.1 16.6 6.4 8.1 11.4 8.9 9.4 12.4 7.3 9.8 16.0 11.4 12.0 8.7 7.0 6.2 11.7 5.4 10.0 13.6 6.5 7.5 10.8 8.1 8.0 11.3 7.6 10.7 14.3 11.2 11.5 10.9 11.4 7.8 10.6 7.7 10.5 13.3 10.7 11.1 11.0 11.7 8.5 10.8 7.9 10.6 12.9 10.5 11.0 MONTHLY: 1/ 2/ P - P BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. PRELIMINARY REQUIREMENTS. Appendix Table 1-B OCT. 14, 1977 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS s hak Crede Bak Roservs Period Total Nonborrowed Monetary Ba s Total Loans and Mo M1 Y Stock Mesaures M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 Invest- M7 ments ANNUALLY: 34,174 34,015 34,405 33,447 33,885 34,412 104,380 110,394 118,054 695.2 725.5 788.2 283.1 312.4 612.4 664.3 740.3 961.5 1092.6 1237.1 701.4 746.5 803.5 1070.5 1174.7 1300.3 1181.2 1308.3 1439.1 1221.6 1351.1 1488.8 33,823 33,761 115.739 766.8 306.9 716.3 1193.9 779.4 1257.0 1397.5 1446.7 33,992 34,325 34,465 33,898 34,253 116,424 117,304 118,054 775.4 782.6 788.2 310.4 310.4 31i.4 725.9 732.3 740.3 1210.7 1223.4 1237.1 788.2 794.6 803.5 1273.0 1285.6 1300.3 1413.9 1426.6 1439.1 1463.3 1476.1 1486b. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. 34,778 34,397 34,308 349710 34,326 34,204 119,100 119,077 119,572 790.6 800.3 807.0 313.8 314.0 315.4 746.3 750.7 756.1 1248.9 1258.2 1268.1 809.3 814.0 818.2 1312.0 1321.5 1330.3 1452.2 1466.0 1475.5 1502.4 1517.1 1527.8 APR. MAY JUNE 34,680 34.723 34,662 34,606 34,517 34.599 120,749 121,376 122,027 816.4 823.4 829.5 320.5 320.7 321.9 764.6 767.6 772.8 1281.2 1289.0 1299.5 826.2 829.9 636.6 1342.8 1351.3 1363.4 1488.5 1498.1 1511.2 1541.6 1551.6 1565.5 JULY AUG. SEPT. 35,029 34,580 35,050 123,468 124,297 125,191 835.9 32b.8 326.3 330.4 783.5 767.7 793.0 1316.8 1329.3 1342.6 846.3 850.9 856.2 1379.6 1392.5 1405.8 1527.9 1541.5 1555.6 1582.3 1596.2 P 35,3*2 35,641 35,676 10 17 24 31 35,635 35,705 35,258 35,745 35,050 34,907 33,593 34,352 123,931 124,226 124,044 124,827 327.2 327.5 327.4 330.5 786.0 786.8 787.2 791.2 849.3 7 14 21 28P 35,497 358b90 35,395 35,750 34t,61 350553 34,657 35 031 124,596 125,203 124,998 125,745 329.7 331.7 330.o 329.5 791.5 794.1 793.2 792.6 854.3 856.6 656.1 656.5 5P 36,285 35,402 125,971 334.4 799.1 664.1 1974 1975 1976 294.8 MONTHLY: 1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 34,412 644.5 847.1 1610.8 WEEKLY: 1q77-AUG. SEPT. 7 OCT. ;; 850.1 850.4 854.3 WEEKLY OATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STAEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY NOTES: WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR OCT.14, 1977 APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Time and Deposits nd Savings S v n D m Other Than CD's CurrncyDemand PerioDepurrency Deposits Total I 1 2 3 Total 4 I Savings Other I 5 6 CD's 7 Mutual Savings Bank & S&L V-ns S,haresU ha .s 8 Other Short Ter Private U.S.Gov't Short-term Securities Assets Credit Union Shares-l Ceit , Savings Bonds 9 10 11 12 (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: 2/ 1974 1975 1976 10.3 8.8 9.6 3.6 2.Q 4.3 14.7 8.0 8.1 10.1 11.7 15.2 6.5 17.4 25.0 12.7 7.8 7.7 36.5 -6.1 -23.5 5.6 15.5 15.6 12.3 19.4 17.8 4.7 6.2 6.9 13.5 33.4 7.5 .9.6 -1.0 19.2 10.7 8.0 4.0 4.6 6.3 9.7 14.1 15.2 27.6 19.7 3.8 11.4 -28.9 -21.1 13.8 16.2 16.6 17.6 6.3 7.2 16.6 -1.4 21.6 15.2 6.5 5.7 10.5 12.1 15.1 9.4 0.0 12.2 lo.1 6.4 12.5 16.5 6.6 7.4 15.7 16.1 27.5 10.0 1.3 15.9 18.2 6.2 -16.1 8.4 8.8 11.4 2.2 8.2 10.3 9.5 9.5 8.5 11.9 9.4 10.4 15.4 4.0 10.4 8.7 14.2 10.4 -7.0 10.9 -4.4 12.0 11.1 17.3 16.4 13.6 20.0 6.1 6.6 7.0 1976 8.1 6.0 12.2 17.1 24.7 10.8 -18.9 17.2 18.5 7.4 1ST OTR. 1977 2ND QTR. 1977 3RD QTR. 1977 7.5 9.3 10.0 3.1 a.3 8.9 12.5 8.3 10.0 14.0 9.8 11.0 21.9 7.9 6.b 7.1 11.6 14.6 1.9 -1.9 3.2 13.3 10.9 15.0 16.7 15.0 18.3 6.7 6.1 6.5 11.1 13.6 5.5 12.9 19.5 7.4 9.2 9.1 6.0 4.5 -1.1 15.3 -2.1 8.9 9.2 13.5 16.1 17.1 16.3 17.9 18.8 16.8 23.3 19.6 29.9 31.0 11.0 15.8 9.7 4.3 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2 18.0 18.0 15.3 13.8 19.6 19.3 15.8 18. 10.3 5.1 6.8 6.7 -28.6 0.0 -3.4 -44.9 9.8 7.3 0.0 4.8 8.9 10.4 5.9 13.1 7.2 5.7 15.7 5.6 12.6 4.1 -3.1 5.7 21.6 -1.5 4.6 18.2 6.0 6.4 11.0 10.7 6.7 6.9 6.3 13.2 11.0 6.9 7.6 12.9 11.7 10.7 9.5 7.6 10.7 15.4 7.1 8.4 21.9 13.4 10.4 9.7 4.5 -2.3 8.5 13.5 8.9 4.8 10.6 10.5 9.4 10.3 22.5 21.6 1.0 8.4 -3.8 3.8 -20.9 -11.6 13.6 30.8 -20.7 7.6 0.0 14.2 11.4 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.5 14.9 1.6 17.6 15.4 15.2 18.0 11.8 11.7 17.4 20.0 19.7 19.4 6.7 6.6 5.0 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 8.0 17.9 68.9 5.0 3.3 11.6 9.9 0.0 6.5 8.1 12.1 21.5 28.2 18.4 15.8 11.2 2.2 6.6 6.6 2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976 1ST HALF 1977 QUARTERLY: 4TM QTR. 1976 IST OTR. 2NO OTR. 3RD QTR. 1977 1977 1977 31.1 8.3 4.9 4.1 20.9 15.3 5.2 QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH QTR. -11.9 7.4 MONTHLY: 1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. P 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF APPENDIX TABLE 2-B OCT. 14, COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency Demand Deposits Period 1 2 Total 3 Mutual Credit Time and CurencyDemanSavings Savings Deposits iriSd UniU.S. Ban Other Than CD's C' & S& Shar Bngs i ta Savns Shar SOther es Sha Total [Savingsl Other haereSec 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ShortGt Gov't O tee P PTerm t ter 1977 NonDeposit Funds Tota Total Gov't Demand epo p: 4 13 14 ecI 11 12 ANNUALLY 1974 1975 1976 67.8 73.7 80.5 215.3 221.0 231.9 418.3 451.7 491.1 329.3 369.0 427.9 136.2 161.0 202.4 193.1 208.0 225.5 89.0 82.1 63.3 341.5 395.2 457. 27.6 33.0 39.0 63.3 67.3 71.9 47.4 o6.3 66.9 40.4 4-.d *4.7 37.o 33.7 51.. 8.3 11.2 6.0 MONTHLYt 79.2 227.7 472.5 409.4 189.4 220.0 63.1 440.3 37.3 70.8 o9.7 49.2 -2.0 12.0 OCT. NOV. DEC. 79.8 80.2 60.5 230.6 230.2 231.9 477.3 484.2 491.1 415.5 422.0 427.9 102.5 197.3 ZC02.4 222.9 224.7 425.5 62.3 62.2 63.3 446.9 452.6 457,8 37.9 38.4 39.0 71.1 71.5 71.9 69.7 69.5 66.9 49.5 <9.5 43.8 ~8.2 51.4 .3.2 13.0 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. 81.1 81.8 82.2 232.7 232.1 233.2 495.6 500.0 502.8 432.5 436.7 440.6 206.1 22b.4 228.4 230.4 63.1 63.3 62.2 463.2 467.6 471.5 39.5 40.0 40.6 72.3 72.7 73.0 67.9 71.8 72.1 10.0 52.3 50.3 50.7 52.7 APR. MAY JUNE 83.1 83.6 237.4 237.1 238.0 505.7 509.2 514.8 444.1 446.9 450.9 211.9 212.7 232.2 234.2 23P.6 61.6 6Z.3 63.9 475.6 480.0 484.6 41.0 41.4 42.0 73.4 73.8 74.2 72.3 73.0 73.6 53.1 53.8 54.3 52.7 50.2 55.9 10.8 10.6 10.1 213.8 216.2 217.8 242.9 62.8 63.2 63.2 *90.6 498.2 505.5 42.7 43.4 74.6 75.0 75.5 73.6 74.0 7.5S 54.4 54.7 55.0 55.9 57.9 11.6 243.1 24'. . 1976--SEPT. 84.0 206.4 210.2 212.3 49 .7 51.1 11.2 11.7 11.2 85.1 85.5 86.4 241.6 242.8 244.1 519.5 522.5 525.8 456.7 459.4 462.6 24 31 85.4 85.4 85.6 85.8 241.8 242.1 241.7 244.7 522.0 522.6 523.0 523.8 456.8 459.3 459.9 460.7 215.7 216.2 216.6 216.8 243.0 243.0 243.3 243.9 63.3 63.3 63.1 63.1 59.. 59.0 57.4 58.4 7 14 21 28P 86.2 66.1 86.4 86.7 ;43. 245.6 244.2 242.7 524.7 525.1 525.5 527.0 461.8 462.4 462.6 463.1 217.o 217.0 217.9 218.0 244.2 244.6 244.7 245.1 62.9 62.7 62.9 63.9 58.3 65.2 7.3 59.7 12.9 63.2 12.3 86.6 .47.7 529.7 464.7 218.2 246.5 65.0 JULY AUG. SEPT. 44. 1 10.2 10.7 WEEKLY: 1977-AUG. SEPT. OCT. 5P -1/ 2/ 3/ ESTIMATEO MLNTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED SY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SECURITY RP'S AND MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND SHARES. BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PuKCHASE3, SECURITIES SOLO UNDER AGREEMENTS 1' REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FCR BORRLWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORR4WING1S) LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES. LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER EANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY 10.2 10.5 10.7 8.5 8.6 13.1 

Federal Reserve (1977, October 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19771018

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19771018,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19771018},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}