Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. June 17, 1977 Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC June 17, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M-1 increased at a 1.1 per cent annual rate in May following April's record rise, and over the May-June period it appears to be growing at around a 1¾ per cent annual rate, slightly below the mid-point of the Committee's desired range. M-2 appears to be increasing at nearly a 6 per cent annual rate in May-June, a little above the mid-point of the Committee's range. Nonborrowed reserves apparently will decline on balance over May-June--with a small June increase not quite offsetting a May decline--primarily because of a flattening of growth in demand deposits and an increase in member bank borrowing since mid-April. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over May-June period 1/ (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates 0 to 4 3 to 7 M-2 Memorandum: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 1/ Avg. for statement week ending May 18 5.34 25 5.45 June 1 5.36 8 5.31 15 5.37 These figures do not incorporate the regular quarterly benchmark revisions of monetary aggregates that will be published on Thursday, June 23. The revisions (based on the December Call Report) are generally quite small. The level of M-1 was lowered somewhat by these revisions, while the level of M-2 was raised slightly. Quarterly growth rates for M-1 for the last quarter of 1976 and the first quarter of 1977 were lowered about ½ of a percentage point. M-2 growth was raised by about the same amount. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of Tables 1 and 2 following the charts) are based on the new series. The new and old series are compared in Appendix IV. (2) In accordance with the Committee's directive, following the May meeting the Account Management aimed at a Federal funds rate of about 5-3/8 per cent. Subsequently, with incoming data suggesting that growth rates in the monetary aggregates would be within the Committee's desired ranges, the Desk has continued to seek a funds rate around that level. (3) Short-term market interest rates generally increased about 10 to 15 basis points in the latter part of May, but subsequently they declined and are now little different from their levels at the time of the May meeting. The recent tendency for such rates to decline appears to be attributable in part to the steadiness of the Federal funds rate and to the slowing of growth in the aggregates. also have eased somewhat in recent weeks. Short-term credit demands The Treasury has continued to redeem bills in its regular weekly and monthly auctions, and short-term borrowing by State and local governments has dropped back to relatively moderate levels following a bulge in April. In addition, business demands for short-term funds at banks and in the commercial paper market moderated in May, after showing exceptional strength in April. Most major banks recently raised the prime rate in two steps from 6¼ to 6¾ per cent, although most recently one large bank posted a 6½ per cent prime rate. Even with the prime rate at 6¾ per cent, the spread over the cost of open market funds has narrowed by about ¼ of a percentage point since the previous prime rate adjustment in mid-December. (4) Most long-term yields have declined about 10 to 20 basis points since the time of the last FOMC meeting, in part because short-term rates did not rise in the manner expected by many market participants. These yield declines also reflected reduced offerings of long-term Treasury and corporate debt and strong institutional demands for municipal securities. Yields on primary mortgages, on the other hand, have changed little. (5) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Past Past Past 1975 & 1976 Average Twelve Months May '77 over May '76 Six Months May '77 over Nov.'76 Three Months May '77 over Feb.'77 Nonborrowed reserves 1.4 2.9 1.6 2.2 -3.0 Total reserves 0.4 3.2 2.3 3.8 1.6 Monetary Base 6.5 6.9 6.9 7.7 6.3 M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 5.2 5.7 6.6 8.5 0.7 M 2 (M plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 10.4 10.3 9.6 9.0 4.7 M 3 (M plus deposits at thrift institutions) 13.0 12.1 10.7 9.7 7.0 (M2 plus CD's) 7.3 8.6 8.9 7.8 5.4 M 5 (M3 plus CD's) 10.7 10.9 10.2 8.9 7.3 4.5 5.8 4.3 4.4 -1.3 6.7 10.0 10.4 11.5 10.3 -1.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.3 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 Past Month May '77 over Apr.'77 Concepts of Money M4 Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 1/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (6) Summarized below for Committee consideration are alternative short-run operating specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. (Detailed data are shown in the tables on pp. 6 and 7.) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M-1 3½ to 7½ 3 to 7 2½ to 6½ M-2 6½ to 10½ 6 to 10 5½ to 9½ Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period) 4½ to 5¼ 5 to 5¾ 5½ to 6¼ Ranges for June-July (7) Assuming the Federal funds rate remains around the 5-3/8 per cent mid-point of the alternative B range, the staff expects M-1 growth in the June-July period to strengthen to an annual rate in the range of 3 to 7 per cent. Available weekly data suggest that M-1 growth will remain relatively slow in June. By July, however, most of the adjustment to the April bulge should have already occurred, and M-1 is expected to grow more rapidly in response to the projected expansion in GNP and the associated increases in transactions demands for money. The July expansion in M-1 is likely to be buoyed further by an earlier- Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 M2 M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 May June July 320.7 321.2 323.6 320.7 321.2 323.4 320.7 321.2 323.2 767.6 772.3 778.6 767.6 772.3 778.1 767.6 772.3 777.5 1288.7 1298.2 1309.5 1288.7 1298.2 1308.5 1288.7 1298.2 1307.5 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 314.4 320.8 325.2 329.0 314.4 320.8 324.7 328.4 314.4 320.8 324.3 328.0 751.0 768.2 784.1 797.9 751.0 768.2 782.8 796.3 751.0 768.2 781.5 794.5 1258.4 1289.4 1319.8 1345.4 1258.4 1289.4 1317.4 1342.4 1258.4 1289.4 1315.2 1339.6 1978 QI 331.7 331.7 331.7 809.7 809.3 808.3 1367.8 1366.5 1364.7 1.9 9.0 1.9 8.2 1.9 7.5 7.3 9.8 7.3 9.0 7.3 8.1 8.8 10.4 8.8 9.5 8.8 8.6 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 June July Quarterly Average: 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 4.2 8.1 5.5 4.7 4.2 8.1 4.9 4.6 4.2 8.1 4.4 4.6 9.9 9.2 8.3 7.0 9.9 9.2 7.6 6.9 9.9 9.2 6.9 6.7 11.3 9.9 9.4 7.8 11.3 9.9 8.7 7.6 11.3 9.9 8.0 7.4 1978 QI 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.9 6.5 6.9 6.7 7.2 7.5 6.9 4.0 6.6 4.3 6.3 4.6 8.8 6.5 8.5 6.8 8.1 6.9 9.8 7.3 9.4 7.5 9.0 7.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 7.8 7.8 7.6 8.7 8.6 8.4 Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77 QIII '77-QI '78 Annual QI '77-QI '78 FOMC longer-run range QI '77-QI '78 4-64 7-94 84-11 Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy M5 M4 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 May June July 829.9 836.0 842.5 829.9 836.0 842.2 829.9 836.0 841.7 1351.0 1361.9 1373.3 1351.0 1361.9 1372.6 1351.0 1361.9 1371.7 545.5 550.6 553.8 545.5 550.6 553.6 545.5 550.6 553.4 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 813.8 830.7 848.7 867.1 813.8 830.7 847.7 865.9 813.8 830.7 846.6 864.8 1321.3 1351.9 1384.3 1414.8 1321.3 1351.9 1382.3 1412.0 1321.3 1351.9 1380.4 1409.8 541.1 547.4 557.5 569.5 541.1 547.4 556.9 568.7 541.1 547.4 556.3 568.1 1978 QI 887.2 886.8 886.1 1445.2 1444.0 1442.5 587.6 587.3 587.0 8.8 9.3 8.8 8.9 8.8 8.2 9.7 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.7 8.6 11.2 7.0 11.2 6.5 11.2 6.1 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 June July Quarterly Averages: 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 9.3 8.3 8.7 8.7 9.3 8.3 8.2 8.6 9.3 8.3 7.7 8.6 10.9 9.3 9.6 8.8 10.9 9.3 9.0 8.6 10.9 9.3 8.4 8.5 5.4 4.7 7.4 8.6 5.4 4.7 6.9 8.5 5.4 4.7 6.5 8.5 1978 QI 9.3 9.7 9.9 8.6 9.1 9.3 12.7 13.1 13.3 Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77 8.6 8.3 8.1 9.5 9.2 8.9 6.1 5.8 5.6 QIII '77-QI '78 9.1 9.2 9.3 8.8 8.9 9.0 10.8 10.9 11.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 9.4 9.3 9.2 8.6 8.5 Annual QI '77-QI '78 8.5 than-usual distribution of social security checks, leading to more than normal amounts of funds held in demand deposit accounts over the long holiday weekend.1/ (8) Under alternative B growth in M-2 over June-July would be expected to pick up somewhat, due mainly to the anticipated strengthening in M-1. However, growth in the time and savings deposit component of M-2 also should recover somewhat from the reduced pace of recent months. The stimulative effects on time and savings deposit inflows of a continued rise in personal income and advances in offering rates at some banks are expected to be about counterbalanced by the delayed impact of earlier increases in short-term market rates. (9) Over the next few weeks aggregate demands on credit markets may change little. Households probably will continue borrowing substantial amounts in the residential mortgage and consumer credit markets, and business demands for short-term credit may strengthen from May's temporarily reduced pace. However, offerings of long-term bonds by businesses are expected to remain light into the summer, and offerings by State and local governments are likely to decline somewhat. 1/ Since the usual distribution date for social security checks (the third of the month) falls on a Sunday in July, the checks will be delivered on the preceding Friday. In October 1976 and April 1977, the two previous occasions when checks were delivered early, the money stock bulged in the first week of the month and remained relatively high throughout the first half of the month. The staff projection of July M-1 growth reflects an assumption that this pattern will reoccur. If this assumption were not made, the projected M-1 growth rate would be reduced by about 2 percentage points in July and about 1¼ percentage points in the 2-month June-July period. -9Furthermore, the Treasury may continue redeeming bills on into July. Although it is widely expected that the Treasury will market about $1.5 billion of 15-year bonds in the last week of June, it appears that this will be the only new money it will raise in the coupon market until early August. (10) Given this background, and assuming that Federal funds continue to trade at around 5-3/8 per cent as contemplated under alternative B, it seems probable that short-term rates will remain close to current levels in the near term. However, there might well be some backup in long-term rates in the aftermath of the recent rally that carried corporate and municipal yields to around their lowest levels in several years. (11) Over the longer run, interest rates, particularly in short-term markets, are likely to come under upward pressure. Treasury's need for new money will be expanding substantially. The Business demands for funds may strengthen in the latter part of the summer and in the autumn as rising expenditures on plant and equipment and inventories outpace growth in internal sources of funds. Also, credit demands of households and State and local governments are likely to remain strong. (12) The staff projections suggest that under alternative B the Federal funds rate would have to advance to an average of about 6 per cent in the first quarter of next year if M-1 growth in the QI '77QI '78 period is to be held near the mid-point of the Committee's 4 -6 per cent range. This funds rate level is somewhat lower than that -10shown in the last blue book, reflecting both the slower second-quarter growth of the aggregates than projected then and the slightly slower growth of nominal GNP now expected in late 1977 and early 1978. Inflows of interest-bearing deposits are still expected to slow sufficiently to keep growth in M-2 and M-3 in the lower part of their respective one-year ranges. (13) The alternative C specifications involve an increase of the funds rate over the next few weeks to the mid-point of a 5½-6½ per cent range. This may be accompanied by growth in M-1 in the June-July period at an annual rate in a range of 2½ to 6½ per cent. Money market firming of the degree contemplated under this alternative probably would produce a prompt, appreciable rise in short-term interest rates and some increase in bond yields. The rise in short-term market rates probably would induce more depository institutions to raise offering rates on savings and time deposits to ceiling levels. Short-term rates might rise far enough to trigger sizable outflows of savings funds to market instruments and to induce banks to bid aggressively for negotiable CD's and for the types of large-denomination time deposits included in M-2. If ceiling rates are unattractive relative to market rates, beginning in July -11some institutions may experience substantial withdrawals in connection with heavy maturities of "wild card" accounts.1/ (14) The immediate tightening of the money market under alternative C would tend to lessen the degree of restraint that would be needed later to achieve growth in M-1 over the QI '77-QI '78 period near the mid-point of the Committee's one-year range. The funds rate under this alternative would be expected to reach 6½ per cent in the fourth quarter of this year and to remain around that level in early 1978. Because short-term market interest rates also would be expected to be lower than under alternative B or A, banks and thrift institutions should be able to maintain stronger inflows of interest-bearing deposits at that time. Although growth in M-2 and M-3 would consequently be stronger in late 1977 and early 1978 than under the other alternatives, even under alternative C the growth rates projected for M-2 and M-3 over the year ending QI '78 are in the lower part of their respective ranges. (15) An easing of the Federal funds rate over the near term to the mid-point of a 4½ to 5¼ per cent range--as called for under alternative A--and the associated decline in short-term rates might well be accompanied, at least temporarily, by significant declines in 1/ From July to October 1973 interest ceilings were removed on time deposits with minimum denominations of $1,000 and maturities of at least four years. Commercial banks accumulated about $9 billion, and thrift institutions $18 billion, in such "wild card" accounts. About one-third of these deposits at commercial banks are estimated to have been issued at rates above now-prevailing ceilings on fouryear accounts. Although information concerning thrifts is much less complete, it is estimated that about the same proportion of their "wild card" certificates were issued at rates above current ceilings on four-year accounts. -12long-term rates. At present dealer positions in Treasury coupon issues are relatively low and forward calendars for long-term Treasury and corporate debt are quite light. In order to achieve growth rates in M-1 at the mid-point of the Committee's one-year range, however, the Federal funds rate would have to begin to rise relatively soon and to reach a level above those envisioned under alternatives B and C. Thus, under alternative A, the Federal funds rate would be expected to average around 7¼ per cent in the first quarter of 1978. -13- Directive language (16) Given below are alternatives for the operational para- graphs of the directive. The first formulation, like the directive adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates; it shows--in strike-through form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting. main emphasis on money market conditions. The second formulation places As suggested below, the particular language needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, at present, it expects the annual growth rates over the May-June JUNE-JULY period to be within the ranges of [DEL: 0-to-4] ____ ____ to ____ per cent for M-2. per cent for M-1 and [DEL: 3½ 7½] to ____ to In the judgment of the Committee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly average 5-3/8]____ Federal funds rate of[DEL: per cent. If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the -142-month period will deviate significantly from the mid-points of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of [DEL: 5¼to 5¾] ____ to ____ per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairmanwho will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or to achieve somewhat easier or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, the Committee seeks to maintain the per cent, so long weekly average Federal funds rate at about ____ as M-1 and M-2 appear to be growing over the June-July period at annual rates within ranges of ____to to ____ per cent, respectively. ____ per cent and If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the -15indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly average Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____ to ____ per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. Appendix I Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QI '77 to QIII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (seasonally adjusted, per cent annual rate) Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Nonborrowed Reserves 3.6 2.7 1.6 Total Reserves 4.8 4.5 4.3 Monetary Base 7.7 7.6 7.5 From the first to the second quarter the reserve aggregate measures shown above are estimated to have grown at the following annual rates: nonborrowed reserves, 1.9 per cent; total reserves, 2.9 per cent; and the monetary base, 7.2 per cent. These growth rates are generally below the longer-run rates shown in the table above. Growth in reserve aggregates is projected to accelerate from the second to the third quarter, as member bank deposits--including CD's--expand more rapidly. The growth rate in nonborrowed reserves would still be quite moderate, however, as the System provides less reserves through open market operations and banks borrow more through the discount window. Demand for borrowings is expected to be greater in the July-September period, given the present discount rate funds rate. and expectations of a rising Federal Growth in the monetary base in the third quarter is projected at a rate slightly above the longer-run growth rates shown for this aggregate. Appendix II Projected Federal Funds Rate Alt. A 1977 1978 QII 5 Alt. B Alt. C 5-1/8 5k 6 QIII 5 5k QIV 61 6 6 QI 7k 6k 6 Appendix III Implied Velocity Growth Rates V Alt. C (GNP/M ) Alt. A Alt. B II 5.3 5.3 5.3 III 6.3 6.9 7.4 IV 6.9 7.1 7.1 I 8.1 7.3 6.8 II 4.2 4.2 4.2 III 3.5 4.1 4.8 IV 4.6 4.8 5.1 I 5.5 4.9 4.4 1977 1978 2 (GNP/M 2 1 1977 1978 Appendix IV SUPPLEMENTAL TABLE 1 COMPARISONS OF OLD AND REVISED MONEY STOCK GROWTH RATES Old Revised Old Revised Old Revised Yearly 1976--Dec/Dec 6.1 6.0 11.3 11.4 13.1 13.2 1976--QIV/QIV 5.7 5.6 10.8 10.9 12.7 12.8 Quarterly: End Month of Quarter Basis 1976--QIV 7.7 7.2 12.8 13.4 14.1 14.5 1977-QI 4.2 3.8 8.1 8.5 9.7 10.0 Quarterly Average Basis 1976--QIV 6.7 6.4 12.2 12.5 14.2 14.4 1977-QI 4.8 4.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.3 14.1 13.7 15.7 16.1 16.7 16.9 November 0.4 0.0 9.9 10.6 12.2 12.6 December 8.5 7.7 12.5 13.1 13.1 13.4 5.8 5.4 9.3 9.7 11.2 11.4 February 0.8 0.8 6.6 7.1 8.7 8.9 March 6.1 5.3 8.2 8.6 9.2 9.4 April 19.7 19.4 13.0 13.5 12.1 12.4 1.1 0.7 4.6 4.7 6.9 7.1 Monthly 1976-October 1977-January May CHART 1 6/17/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 340 S320 300 I 280 780 760 740 7V 2 % growth for May-June 720 m - /77 700 growth 680 660 I 1975 1976 1977 M I A I M 1977 J J CHART 2 6/17/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550 -530 510 RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 37 - T OT A L 36 3 - 5 34 NONBORROWED 1976 1976 I 977 1977 I CHART 3 6/17/77 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT -1 9 F.R. DISCOUNT RATE :DERAL FUNDS RATE RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 1975 1976 1977 I 1975 1976 1977 1975 1976 1977 Table 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES JUNE 17, 1977 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Time Totail Broad (M2) Credit Proxy U.S. Govl. Deposits. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 754.2 762.4 765.2 (769.9) 542.9 546.1 545.5 (550.8) 11.2 10.8 10.6 ( 9.0) 500.2 502.7 505.9 1511.4) 438.0 441.1 443.6 (447.6) 208.9 210.4 211.3 (211.3) 229.2 230.7 232.3 (236.3) 62 2 61.6 62.3 ( 6N..8) ( 11.5 3.0 5.8) ( 14.6 8.5 9.0) ( 16.7 10.8 8.8) ( 28.5 15.3 4.6) 6.5 6.9 12.4) ..3 -7.0 11.3) ( 8.2 5.4 4.1) ( 11.5 11.3 7.6) ( 16.3 12.7 8.9) ( 26.7 20.5 7.9) ( 5.8 6.0 7.6 13.0) I 9.7 8.5 6.8 10.8) ( 11.0 8.6 5.1 0.0) ( 10.4) ( 8.8) ( 2.6) Othr Than C'D Savins otal Tt Member Nondeposit nd Savings Deposits Adjusted Narrow (M1) Money Supply Period Sources Funds tar o f US. Govt. Deposits 10 11 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9) 2.8 3.6 2.1 3.5) MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 1977-MAR. APR. MAY JUNE % ANNUAL 316.1 321.3 321.6 (322.2) I ( GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-4TH QTk. 1977-151 QTR. 2ND QTR. I 7.7 4.2 7.7) I 12.8 8.1 8.3) I 6.8 4.8 b.5) ( 12.2 9.4 8.8) I 6.1 19.7 1.1 2.2) ( 8.2 13.0 4.4 7.4) ( 7.6 7.1 -1.3 11.7) 1 1.7) 5.9) ( 5.2) 4 11 18 25 321.3 321.0 322.2 322.4 762.8 763.9 766.0 766.7 544.4 543.6 545.8 547.2 11.6 10.7 10.9 10.5 502.8 504.9 506.2 507.0 441.5 443.0 443.9 444.3 210.9 211.7 211.5 211.4 230.6 231.2 232.4 232.9 61.3 62.0 62.4 62.7 7.3 7.7 6.1 8.3 2.8 1.6 2.0 2.2 1 8 321.5 767.0 769.3 546.7 551.0 8.3 7.5 508.4 510.0 445.5 't46.8 211.0 211.3 234.!, 235.0 62.9 63.2 7.5 7.8 2.6 4.4 I 1 QUARTERLY-AV 1976-41H QTR. 1977-151 QTR. 2ND QTR. 7.6 5.9 9.8) -18.9 1.9 ( -1.9) 1 9.0 7.9 8.3 20.7) -20.9 -11.6 13.6 28.9) ( 14.6) ( MONTHLY 1977-MAR. APR. MAY JUNE MAY-JUNE ( 21.4) WEEKLY LEVELS-$BIL 1977-MAY JUNE NOTE: 1/ P - 322.5 DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period MONTHLY Total 17, I 7 REQUIRED RESERVES Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1977--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE PERCENT JJht 34,308 34,680 34,726 134,8221 34,204 34,606 34,519 (34959b) ( 7.6 -1.8 6.0) 7.7 -2.4 4 4.6) I 4.4 2.7 2.9) 119,573 120,750 121,379 (122,043) 34,093 34,48u 34.521 (34.629) 20,403 20,608 20,706 (20,574 12,123 1.,162 14,116 (12,3141 t 1, 7 1,1 t 1, 11. 1, I41) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--4TH QTR. 1977--1S1 QTR. 2ND QTR. 8.0 I 5.2 8.3) ( 7.1 6.8 7.2) I 6.8 -1.1 b.3) ( 4.0 3.0 3.2) ( -3.7 13.9 1.1 3.8) ( 2.5) 1 1.6 3.7 3.4) ( 3.2 5.0 2.8) 1 8.0 6.9 6.3) QUARTERLY-AV 1976--4TH OTR. 1977-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. ( 4.8 2.6 1.9) ( -4.3 14.1 -3.0 2.7) ( -0.1) ( -0.7 9.5 4.0) 4 -0.8 12.1 5.7 -7.7) I 6.4 3.9 -4.5 19.61 ( -1.0) ( 7.5) MONTHLY 1977--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE I MAY-JUNE WEEKLY ( 2.5) 5.0 11.8 6.3 6.6) 1 ( 6.4) LEVELS-MNILLIONS 1977-MAY JUNE 4 11 16 25 35,327 34,646 34,829 34,277 35,112 34,530 34,702 33,966 121,654 120,989 121,468 121,062 35,025 34,640 34,611 34,142 20,783 20 872 20,744 20,552 12,072 12,067 12,091 12,138 2,169 1 701 1,776 1 45i 1 8 15 34,773 34r517 34,754 34.543 34,294 34,531 121,892 121,212 121,670 34,382 34,471 34,443 20,595 20,661 20,481 12,207 12,240 12,292 1,560 1,511 1 671 I NOTEs -3.1 13.0 1.6 3.3) I I I RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. I RESERVE REQUIREMENT RA1IO. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 17, 1977 TABLE 3 1/ NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period Within 1 year -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. I II III IV 1977--Qtr. I Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 Total 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 167 129 196 1,070 642 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 -363 2,067 45 -886 115 109 171 77 554 796 881 794 226 245 345 232 156 134 160 192 1,052 1,284 1,557 1,294 1,164 192 997 325 165 1,680 Within 1 year 592 400 1,665 824 469 S 1976--Dec. -570 59 681 170 119 1,029 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2,222 475 348 174 128 151 46 48 81 37 695 687 298 -- -691 -368 45 L07 41 Apr. May 1,392 20 327 104 38 489 -208 - -- -- -- -- ---- ---- ---- 20 327 104 1977--Apr. 6 13 20 27 May -151 -109 585 784 4 11 18 25 533 245 11 -125 -- -- June 1 8 15 22 29 -702 -1,442 -33 ---- ---- S - 38 - 1- Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 5 5 -10 10 - - - 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 1,022 3,371 1,398 436 1,256 1,654 392 304 2,738 -4,771 403 5,976 2,908 -45 -125 -6,877 1,931 175 - - - ---- - &#45;&#45;&#45; ---- -- 173 138 35 346 -- -- - -- - ---- -------- ---- ---- ---- 489 -- -- -- - S - Total Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ Net RP's 6/ 2,176 2,822 -254 -3,207 ---- -177 -117 -- -- 1,258 -9,141 7,954 3,549 822 35 346 866 227 2,779 -2,892 - 572 - - -- - - 173 - 138 S S - -- - - - - 3 -- -2,841 -- -- -- -133 -2,697 ---- ---- ---- ---- -704 -1,445 -58 47 -6,501 3,444 ----- ----- ------------ LEVEL June 15 39.3 9.4 29.9 11.2 6.4 56.9 1.5 3.4 1.4 .8 7.1 103.3 -5.5 (in billions) 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemption (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Excess** Bonds Bonds (4) Reserves (5) 3,046 175 343 34 7,234 1,729 3,017 *-289 1976--1ay June 4,239 4,996 July Aug. 8 New York 38 Others 655 -180 -8,161 -2,367 -12,744 350 125 513 -111 -8,742 -4,293 -13,975 591 582 199 196 210 214 -4,402 -4,219 - 8,151 - 9,158 Sept. 5,743 6,174 7,838 904 1,686 1,509 211 116 172 234 207 205 -4,756 -4,624 -5,703 - 9,399 - 9,691 - 9,716 Oct. 6,271 Nov. Dec. 6,876 8,005 1,832 2,418 2,443 258 217 167 221 257 274 -6,428 -6,289 -7,168 -10,527 -11,618 -11,449 1977--Jan. Feb. 6,406 4,450 2,320 202 226 162 265 198 214 -6,421 -5,604 -5,661 -11,504 -11,503 -10,912 1976--High Low 1977--High Low Coupon Issues (2) 8,896 3,668 Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FR** _ Corporate Bills (1) STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 17, 1977 Total Seasonal - 6,908 - 9,010 Mar. 4,906 1,605 972 Apr. May 4,567 *3,072 696 *123 173 228 192 210p -6,586 -5,693 -11,409 -10,175 6,208 6,670 6,025 761 1,103 582 232 144 125 192 256 274 34 164 -5,652 -7,445 -7,119 -5,518 -11,318 -13,727 -11,568 421 199 -289 *-83 350 180 188 194 302 46 218 157p -5,840 -7,349 -5,627 -5,133 - 9,209 *681 *281 *164 166 213 6 1 8p -4,392 6 -5, 14p 41 4 -5, p - 9,433 1977--Apr. 6 13 20 27 May June 1,729 4 2,474 11 18 25 2,778 3,232 *2,837 1 *4,172 8 15 *5,579 *5,711 453 22 - 9,122 -10,843 -11.054 - 9,817 2 29 NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. 5 -1 .19 p 2 -1 ,433p STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 17, 1977 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) Short-term Treasury Bills Commercial Federal Funds 90-Day 1-Year Paper 90-119 Day (4) 60-Day 90-Day U.S. Govt.-Constant Long-term Corp.-Aaa Utility Municipal Maturity Yields 3-yr 7-yr 20-yr New Issue Recently Offered Bond Buyer Home Mortgages Primary Cony. Secondary Market FNMA Auc. GNMA Sec. (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) 5.63 4.40 5.75 4.50 7.52 5.65 7.89 6.33 8.17 7.23 8.95 7.93 8.94 7.84 7.13 5.83 9.10 8.70 9.20 8.39 8.45 7.57 5.50 4.63 5.30 4.48 5.44 4.63 6.58 5.83 7.31 6.59 7.78 7.26 8.32 7.90 8.33 7.95 5.93 5.55 8.85 8.65 8.79 8.46 8.08 7.56 5.98 6.12 5.44 5.83 5.25 5.55 5.38 5.68 7.27 7.32 7.77 7.76 8.13 8.03 8.82 8.72 8.77 8.73 6.87 6.87 8.77 8.85 9.09 9.13 8.33 8.35 5.23 5.14 5.08 5.82 5.64 5.50 5.54 4.35 5.33 5.30 5.23 5.11 5.42 5.31 5.24 7.12 6.86 6.66 7.70 7.58 7.41 8.00 7.91 7.78 8.63 8.52 8.29 8.63 8.50 8.33 6.79 6.61 6.51 8.93 9.00 8.98 9.05 8.99 8.88 8.37 8.30 8.10 4.92 4.75 4.35 5.19 5.00 4.64 5.10 4.98 4.66 4.90 4.84 4.68 5.04 4.94 4.50 6.24 6.09 5.68 7.16 6.86 6.37 7.70 7.64 7.30 8.25 8.17 7.94 8.24 8.18 7.93 6.30 6.29 5.94 8.93 8.81 8.79 8.75 8.66 8.45 7.98 7.93 7.59 4.61 4.58 4.58 4.68 4.70 4.72 6.22 6.44 6.47 6.92 7.16 7.30 7.48 7.64 7.73 8.08 8.22 8.25 8.09 8.19 8.29 5,87 5.89 5.89 8.72 8.67 8.69 8.48 8.55 8.68 7.83 7.98 8.06 6.32 6.55 7.11 7.26 7.67 7.74 8.26 8.33 8.22 8.31 5.73 5.75 8.75 8.83 8.67 8.74 7.96 8.04 8.25 5.79 8.75 8.72 8.01 8.16 5.70 8.75 8.21 5.73 8.78 8.25 5.68 8.78 (1) (2) (3) 1976--High Low 5.58 4.63 5.53 4.27 6.32 4.62 1977--High Low 5.45 4.47 5.11 4.41 5.53 4.67 1976--May June 5.29 5.48 5.20 5.41 July Aug. Sept. 5.31 5.29 5.25 Oct. Nov. 5.03 4.95 4.65 Dec. CD's New Issue-NYC 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.57 5.04 Apr. May 20 27 4.60 4.65 4.71 4.82 4.56 4.58 4.51 4.50 5.14 5.10 4.99 5.13 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.58 4.58 4.50 4.63 4.63 4.70 4.67 4.70 6.45 6.22 6.23 6.38 7.22 7.06 7.04 7.14 7.72 7.65 7.62 7.69 8.26 8.25 8.21 8.31 May 4 11 18 25 5.15 5.31 5.34 5.45 4.65 4.87 4.99 5.11 5.24 5.41 5.46 5.53 4.83 5.05 5.35 5.48 4.65 5.00 5.25 5.25 4.80 5.13 5.28 5.44 6.49 6.58 6.57 6.56 7.27 7.31 7.25 7.21 7.74 7.78 7.74 7.70 -8.32 8.34 -- 8.33 8.32 8.31 8.28 5.76 5.82 5.70 5.71 8.78 8.83 8.85 8.85 8.70 -8.74 -- 8.06 8.08 8.04 8.04 June 1 8 15 22 29 5.36 5.31 5.37 5.02 5.04 5.04 5.42 5.43 5.41 5.50 5.46 5.44 5.30 5.25 5.25 5.40 5.38 5.35 6.49 6.46 6.36p 7.17 7.13 7.01p 7.68 7.68 7.63p 8.15 8.22 8.22 8.08p 5.72 5.65 8.85 8.85 8.79 -- 7.99 7.99 5.55 n.a. 8.77 7.99 9 16 5.33 8 5.3 p 5.08 5.02 5.45 5.43 5.50 5.40 6.49 6.37p 7.14 7.02p 7.69 7.64p 1977--Apr. 6 13 Daily--June - -- - -- 8.11 8 .01p -- 8.62 -- 7.99 7.89 7.96 NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for shortterm forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FRA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES APPENDIX TABLE BANK CREDIT BANK RESERVES Y JUNE 17, 1977 MONEY STOCK MEASUMS MEASURES Total Period Total 1 bon borrowed onetary Base Adj. edit proxy Loans n 2 2 Invest- ments 4 5 6 7 (Per cet ammel rates of growth) 3 M4 M5 M6 M7 9 10 11 12 2 3 7.0 -0.2 1.0 7.7 3.2 1.2 9.1 5.9 6.9 9.8 4.2 4.3 10.1 3.9 8.0 5.1 4.4 5.6 7.7 8.3 10.9 7.1 11.1 12.8 10.6 6.5 7.1 9.0 9.7 10.3 8.9 10.5 9.9 9.5 10.1 10.2 2ND HALF 1975 0.3 0.9 5.8 3.5 4.5 2.8 6.9 10.2 5.7 9.1 10.8 10.6 15T HALF 1976 2ND hALF 1976 -1.4 4.1 -1.4 4.5 6.5 7.1 3.0 6.7 77.7 9.3 5.7 6.1 10.2 12.1 11.7 13.9 5.9 9.1 8.9 12.0 8.8 10.7 9.2 10.6 3.1 0.6 7.6 2.2 1.3 7.7 8.2 6.1 8.0 4.0 1.8 11.5 8.5 7.2 11.2 6.8 4.9 7.2 9.1 10.4 13.4 10.7 12.9 14.5 6.6 5.7 12.4 9.0 9.9 13.8 6.8 9.j 11.8 9.5 9.5 11.5 -2.4 5.1 3.0 9.5 3.8 8.5 10.0 7.3 9.2 9.8 10.2 8 2/ ANNUALLY : 1974 1975 1976 SEMI-ANNUALLYI QUARTERLY: 2ND QTK. 1976 .RD QTR. 1976 4TH QTR. 1976 1ST QTR. 1977 -1.8 QUARTERLY-AVI 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTK. 1976 1976 1976 0.6 2.7 4.4 0.4 2.6 4.8 8.2 6.3 7.1 2.2 3.9 8.2 8.7 6.9 10.8 8.2 4.4 6.5 10.5 9.1 12.5 11.8 11.4 14.4 6.4 6.0 9.8 9.1 9.3 12.7 9.0 9.2 11.1 9.4 9.6 10.9 1SI QTR. 1977 2.7 2.6 6.8 5.4 8.8 4.2 9.9 11.3 9.3 10.9 10.5 10.6 4.1 4.1 2.0 5.9 -6.2 6.0 11.8 4.9 1.6 3.7 1.8 7.0 -4.8 4.9 12.6 5.6 8.0 5.4 6.5 6.6 5.1 7.1 9.1 7.7 -3.7 13.5 3.2 0.7 1.6 11.9 11.3 10.8 6.3 7.9 4.1 9.7 7.6 13.5 11.1 8.6 6.8 -1.2 7.1 5.9 1.6 13.7 0.0 7.7 8.9 4.3 12.0 8.8 10.0 16.1 10.6 13.1 10.5 7.1 12.8 12.3 13.3 16.9 12.6 13.4 3.9 6.4 8.9 2.0 6.2 13.5 9.7 13.4 7.3 8.3 10.8 7.9 10.8 15.3 11.9 13.7 7.1 8.2 11.5 7.6 8.6 14.0 10.7 10.5 8.0 9.2 11.8 7.7 8.7 15.7 10.3 10.2 10.9 -13.1 -3.1 13.0 1.6 10.4 -13.3 -4.3 14.1 -3.0 10.6 -0.2 5.0 11.8 6.3 4.5 -2.9 7.6 7.1 -1.3 3.7 14.7 10.0 14.0 10.3 5.4 0.8 5.4 19.4 0.7 9.7 7.1 8.6 13.5 4.7 11.4 8.9 9.4 12.4 7.0 8.7 7.0 6.2 11.7 5.4 10.8 8.7 8.0 11.3 7.3 10.8 11.0 7.2 10.7 7.3 11.0 11.3 7.9 11.0 7.9 MONTHLY: 1976--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OLC. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P NOTES: ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS RELATkD INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. 2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANK- 17, JUNE 1977 APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK RES u BANK SEVES Period Total 1 BANK CREDIT MEASURES NonMonetary borod ae borrowedBase Adl Credit proxy Total Loans and Investments 5 MONEY STOCK MEASURES M1 M2 2 M M4 M5 M6 M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1161.d 131. i 143b. 1221.0 131.1 148.4 2 3 34,174 34,015 34,465 33,447 33,885 34,412 104,380 110,394 118,054 494.6 513.8 538.8 695.2 725.5 788.2 263.1 294.8 312.4 612.4 664.3 740.3 981.5 1092.6 1237.1 71.4 74t.5 803.5 1010.5 1174.7 1300.3 33,661 33,776 33,546 33,650 113,498 114,009 515.6 521.4 748.4 753.3 403.5 303.2 695.7 69b.2 1149.7 1156.5 764.3 768.4 1218.3 126.7 JULY AU6. SEPT. 33,833 33,998 33,823 33,701 33,897 33,761 114,625 115,252 115,739 522.8 523.1 523.8 755.9 762.0 766.8 305.0 306.5 306.9 705.2 710.4 716.3 1168.8 1180.8 1193.9 774.1 775.4 779.4 OCT. NOV. DOC. 33,992 34,325 34,465 33,698 34,253 34,412 116,424 111,304 118,054 529.0 534.0 538.8 775.4 762.6 788.2 310.4 310.4 312.4 725.9 732.3 740.3 1210.7 1223.4 1237.1 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. 34,778 34,397 34,308 34,710 34,326 34,204 119,100 119,077 119,572 540.8 539.5 542.9 790.6 800.3 807.0 313.8 314.0 315.4 746.3 750.7 756.1 34,680 34,726 34,606 34,519 120,749 121,379 546.1 545.5 816.4 823.4 3z0.5 320.7 764.6 767.6 13 20 27 34,229 34,755 349922 34,191 341726 34,823 119,863 120,890 121,516 547.1 547.9 545.6 320.6 320.2 321.9 765.1 763.9 766.2 826.7 825.2 827.4 4 11 18 25 35,327 34,686 34,829 34,277 35,112 34,530 34,702 33,966 121,653 120,990 121,488 121,061 544.4 543.6 545.8 547.2 320.4 320.1 321.3 321.5 765.1 766.2 768.4 769.1 826.4 828.2 830.7 831.8 34,773 34,517 34,543 34,294 121,891 121,213 546.7 551.0 320.6 321.5 769.4 771.7 832.3 834.9 4 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 MONTHLYs 1976--MAY JUNE APR. MAY P 4 15. 1 .65.7 1402.5 141..k 1237.7 1245.8 1257.0 137a.b 16l7.5 1397. 1427.1 1436.3 1440.7 788.2 794.6 803.5 1273.0 1285.6 1300.3 1413.8 14.L.4 1436.9 1463.z 1475.8 148.4 1248.9 1258.2 1268.1 809.3 814.0 818.2 1312.0 1321.5 1330.3 1451.9 l46'.d 1471. 0 150 . 1516.<. 1526.2 1281.2 1288.7 826.2 8S9.9 1342.8 1351.0 1487.1 149o.l 1510.2 155U.4 1 WEEKLYS 1977-APR. MAY JUNE NOTESs IP BP ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOk STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERA6ES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3. M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVEbTMENTS AND "-.. ,-«tll TION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTC P - PRELIMINARY 17, 1977 JUNE APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currency 1 Demand D a Deposits Total 2 3 Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD'Savings Other ThanCD's Savin Total 4 2/ Savings Mutual CD's Credit Union Shares1/ Bank S&L & Other Short Term Savngs U.S.Gov't Commercial Paper'/ BondsJJSecurities Shares-i 1/ 9 8 6 7 5 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 11 10 12 ANNUALLY: 1974 197> 1976 10.3 8.8 9.6 3.b 2.9 4.3 14.7 HALF 1975 7.9 1ST HALF 197o 2ND HALF 1976 8.1 10.1 11.7 15.Z 6.5 17.0 24.5 12.7 8.0 8.1 36.5 -6.1 -23.5 5.6 15.5 15.6 12.3 19.4 17.8 4.7 6.2 6.9 13.5 33.-# 7.2 1.0 7.7 10.4 15.9 6.1 -3.6 15.2 17.8 6.4 51.1 5.3 10.3 7.7 4.2 5.6 6.0 11.1 13.8 16.6 23.7 24.2 6.3 10.2 -29.0 -19.7 13.8 16.7 16.4 18.5 6.2 7.2 10.3 -B.9 21.5 8.9 2ND QTR. 1976 ARO QTR. 1976 4TH QTk. 176 9.5 8.8 6.6 5.8 3.7 7.4 6.6 6.* 15.7 11.1 14.5 18.1 13.8 16.5 28.5 8.9 11.3 8.b -17.4 -40.5 1.3 12.7 16.9 15.9 15.1 17.9 18.2 6.4 8.1 0.2 8.2 0.0 -17.8 31.9 15.2 2.4 11T 0TK. 8.4 2.2 9.5 11.9 15.- 9.0 -7.0 12.0 16.4 6.1 24.0 22.6 0.0 29.0 -1.0 18.8 SEMI-ANNUALLY: LND QUARTtELY: 1977 QUARTERLY-AV: 2ND OTK. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1976 1976 1976 11.2 7.6 8.1 7.0 3.2 b.0 5.4 7.0 12.2 12.4 12.8 17.1 22.0 13.4 26.7 4.7 12.2 8.9 -30.1 - 4.6 -18.9 13.5 14.6 17.2 16.5 15.9 18.5 5.9 7.0 7.4 9.5 9.2 -14.0 22.0 22.6 5.7 1ST QiR. 1977 7.5 3.1 12.5 14.0 20.5 b.5 1.9 13.3 16.7 6.7 7.0 14.6 197o--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. StPT. OCT. NUV. DOL. 11.0 9.3 7.7 9.2 9.1 6.0 +.5 5.3 -3.2 6.9 5.3 -1.1 15.3 -L.1 8.9 1.8 12.0 9.5 -0.3 9.2 13.5 16.1 17.1 9.9 9.2 15.2 11.4 16.3 17.9 18.8 16.8 18.3 0.7 11.4 21.2 22.1 30.0 26.2 27.5 3.4 16.4 18.4 3.3 12.0 6.5 12.9 6.9 -43.8 28.0 -22.2 -67.9 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2 13.0 10.9 13.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 15.3 13.8 13.8 13.6 16.8 16.6 19.6 19.3 15.8 18.8 7.0 7.0 5.2 8.6 10.3 5.1 6.8 6.7 3.5 10.4 e9.3 0.0 -28.6 -1.7 -5.1 -46.8 34.6 33.* 20.3 14.9 9.8 4.9 0.0 L.4 1977--JAN. tB. MAR. APK. MAY P 8.9 10.4 5.9 13.1 7.2 4.1 -3.1 5.7 21.6 -2.0 11.0 10.7 6.7 6.9 8.3 12.9 11.7 10.7 9.5 7.6 22.1 12.3 11.0 8.6 -9. 1 1 5.3 11.1 10.4 10.4 -3.8 3.6 -20.9 -11.6 .. 14.2 11.4 10.0 10.4 1.f 15.4 15.2 18.0 11.8 6.7 6.6 5.0 6.6 18.0 60.4 -6.8 6.8 - -r- * I7i 14.5 Z4.0 28.2 Ib.4 MONTHLY: 1/ i/ P - 4.1 GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PRtVIOUS MONTH RtPORI D DATA. BASED ON QUARTERLY AVEKAGE UATA. PRELIMINARY. MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS _ DERIVED BY AVERAGING I END OF CURRENT . - MONTH AND END OF JUNE 17, 1977 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Mutual Deposits Savings Time and Time Savings and Deposits Currency Demand Deposits Period Total Bank & &L Credit Union Savings Shares Bonds ShortTerm U S Gov't Cornmercial Paper Sec / 11 12 Total NonTotal Gov't Deposit Funds Demand Other Than CD's CDs Savings 5 Other 6 7 136.2 160.5 201.2 193.1 209.0 226.0 89.0 341.5 62.1 27.6 33.0 39.0 63.3 67.3 71.9 47.4 (6.3 4(.4 4!.6 63.3 395.2 457. bt.6 +>.5 212.7 215.6 6. .6 10.2 418.7 422.5 35.3 35.7 69.0 69.1 69.4 69.7 4o. 1 46.1 47.4 7.9 9.t 66.9 65.0 427.4 433.8 36.2 440.3 37.3 69.7 710.2 70.8 71.4 71.4 69.7 40. z 4a.6 49.2 10.1 .2.6 IL .o 13.0 _Total Shares 8 1/ 9 10 D 13 2 14 2 3 4 67.8 73.7 80.5 215.3 c21.0 z31.9 418.3 '*51.7 329.3 491.1 427.9 77.3 77.5 226.2 225.6 460.7 465. 4 392.1 179.4 395.1 179.5 JULY AUb. SEPI. 78.1 78.6 79.2 420.9 469.0 400.1 227.9 227.7 468.9 181.2 1B4.4 187.8 218.9 219.5 472.5 403.9 409.4 OCT. NOV. UtC. 79.8 80.2 80.5 230.6 231.9 477.8 484.2 491.1 415.5 422.0 427.9 192.5 196.7 201.2 222.9 225.3 22e.6 62.3 62.2 63.3 440.9 452.6 457.8 37.9 38.4 39.0 71.1 71.5 71.9 69.6 69.3 66.o 49.4 49.4 49.5 81.1 81.8 82.2 z 2.7 232.1 233.2 495.0 500.0 502.8 432.5 4536.7 440.6 204.9 2U7.0 208.9 227.6 03.1 463.2 229.7 231.7 63.3 467.6 471.5 39.5 40.0 40.6 72.3 7z.7 73.0 67.6 71.0 70.6 50.1 51.1 52.* 83.1 83.6 237.4 505.7 509.2 444.1 446.9 210.4 233.7 235.6 61.6 237.0 475.6 479.8 41.0 41.3 73.4 13.8 71.0 71.3 53.1 54.3 13 20 27 82.7 83.0 83.4 237.9 237.2 238.5 506.1 503.0 505.5 444.5 443.7 444.3 210.o 210.2 210.5 233.9 233.5 233.8 61.6 01.3 61.e 4 11 le 25 83.3 83.4 83.6 83.7 237.1 23o.7 237.6 237.8 505.9 444.7 509.5 510.3 233.8 234.4 235.7 23o.2 11.6 446.2 447.1 447.6 210.9 211.7 211.5 211.4 61.*6 508.1 62.0 62.4 62.7 10.7 10.9 10.5 84.1 236.5 237.7 511.7 513.4 448.8 450.2 211.0 211.3 237.8 238.9 62.9 6.3 7.5 1 ANNUALLY: 1974 1976 1976 469.6 6.0 a. MONTHLY: 19 76--IMA Y JUNk 1977--JAN. FLb. MAR. APR. MAY P 230.2 221.7 411.3 62.2 62.3 30.7 1u.0 11.7 WEEKLY: V177-APR. MAY JUNE 1P 8P 83.7 I 1/ 2/ P - ESTIMATED MONTHLY INCLUDES TREASURY PRELIMINARY I I I L, l0.7 10.6 13.4 10.0 63.2 Ii ,, -. AVEKAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGbNG END OF CURRENT MONTH AND LUPOSIlS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. END OF PRLVIOUS MONTH REPORTcD DAIA. 

Federal Reserve (1977, June 20). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770621

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19770621,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770621},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}