Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC May 13, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I May 13, 1977 - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M 1 increased at a record 19¾ per cent annual rate in April, and growth for the April-May period is projected at a 12¼ per cent annual rate--2¼ percentage points above the upper end of the Committee's desired range. M 2 appears to be expanding at about a 9.1 per cent annual rate over April and May, below the mid-point of the Committee's range, reflecting a further moderation in the growth of the interest bearing component of this aggregate. Nonborrowed reserves expanded substantially in April, reflecting the sharp expansion of demand deposits early in the month, but are likely to show little net change on balance in May, partly in lagged response to recent declines in demand deposits. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over April-May period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates M1 6 to 10 12.3 M2 8 to 12 Memorandum: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 9.1 Avg. for statement week ending 4.71 Apr. 20 4.82 27 5.15 4 May 11 5.31 -2(2) In response to very rapid growth of M1 in the early weeks of April, the Desk became somewhat less generous in its provision of nonborrowed reserves in the statement week following the April FOMC meeting, expecting the Federal funds rate to average 4-3/4 per cent or slightly higher. Over following statement weeks, the Desk raised its funds rate target first to around 5 per cent and then to around 5-1/4 per cent, as incoming data indicated that M1 was apparently growing at rates well above the Committee's range, while M 2 growth was near the mid-point of its range. per cent. In the latest statement week the funds rate averaged 5.31 With the rise in the funds rate, member bank borrowing at the discount window has increased since the April FOMC meeting to averages of $214 million and $154 million, respectively, in the last two statement weeks. (3) Since the April FOMC meeting short-term market rates generally have increased by around 1/2 percentage point, and most recently, a number of major banks have raised the prime loan rate from 6-1/4 per cent to 6-1/2 per cent. Business demands for short-term funds have been quite strong over this period. Business loans at banks increased at a 12-1/4 per cent annual rate in April--exceeding the rapid first quarter pace--and commercial paper issued by finance companies and nonfinancial corporations expanded more sharply than in any month since 1974. Upward pressures on short-term rates, however, were tempered by the improved Treasury financial position which has permitted a paydown of Treasury bills amounting to $4.5 billion thus far in the second quarter. (4) Long-term interest rates have increased from 10 to 20 basis points since the April FOMC meeting. Upward pressures on long rates have been moderated by a significant cutback in publicly offered corporate bonds--though both private placements of corporate issues and bonds issued by municipalities have remained relatively large. In addition, the Treasury paid down debt of around $400 million in its mid-May refunding and has announced an additional run-off of $500 million in the 2-year notes scheduled to be refinanced right after the May FOMC meeting. (5) In its May refunding the Treasury reopened securities first issued in last February's refunding, auctioning $2.85 billion of 7¼ per cent 6¾ year notes and $1.0 billion of 7-5/8 per cent 29¾ year bonds. Bidding in the auctions for both issues was relatively aggressive and average auction rates were set within a few basis points of levels on outstanding issues. Dealers have distributed essentially all of their awards, and both new offerings are currently quoted at close to issue price. (6) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. 1975 & 1976 Average Past Twelve Months Apr. '77 over Apr. '76 Past Six Months Apr. '77 over Oct. '76 Past Three Months Apr. '77 over Jan. '77 Nonborrowed reserves 1.4 3.3 4.2 -1.1 14.3 Total reserves 0.4 3.4 4.1 -1.1 13.2 Monetary Base 6.5 7.1 7.4 5.5 11.8 5.2 6.5 7.0 8.9 19.7 10.4 10.4 10.1 9.3 13.0 institutions) 13.0 12.2 11.4 10.2 12.4 (M2 plus CD's) 7.2 8.2 9.1 7.9 11.3 M 5 (M3 plus CD's) 10.7 10.7 10.7 9.2 11.3 4.5 5.6 6.5 4.1 7.5 6.0 8.9 10.1 13.2 13.9 -1.1 -0.8 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 Past Month Apr. '77 over Mar. '77 Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M 3 (2 M4 plus deposits at thrift Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series tIen reserve requirements are changed. -5Prospective developments (7) Summarized below for Committee consideration are alternative short-run operating specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. (Detailed data are shown in the tables on pp. 6 and 7). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges for May-June ½-4½ M1 1½-5½ 1-5 M2 4-8 3½-7½ 2¾-6¾ 4¼-5¼ 4¾-5¾ 5¼-6¼ Federal funds rate (intermeeting period) (8) Under all alternatives, we expect M1 growth to slow markedly over the next several weeks from the April pace. The extremely large M1 expansion last month appears to have provided the public with sufficient cash to accommodate much of their increased transactions needs in the second quarter, when nominal GNP is projected to expand at about a 14 per cent annual rate. A growth range of 1 to 5 per cent for the May-June period is projected under alternative B, assuming the Federal funds rate remains around 5¼ per cent--the midpoint of a 4¾-5¾ per cent range. For the second quarter as a whole, M1 growth would be around a 9¼ per cent annual rate, well above the 4.8 per cent rate of the first quarter. (9) Under alternative B, we would expect M2 to expand in a 3½-7½ per cent annual rate range in the May-June period. The time and savings deposit component of M 2 is expected to expand somewhat Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 1977 1977 1978 M2 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C April 321.3 321.3 321.3 May June 322.6 323.1 322.6 322.9 322.6 322.6 QI 315.0 315.0 315.0 QII 322.3 322.3 322.2 QIII QIV 326.2 329.9 325.4 329.1 324.6 328.4 QI 332.3 332.3 4.9 1.9 Alt. A M3 Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 762.4 762.4 762.4 1279.3 1279.3 1279.3 765.6 770.0 765.6 769.4 765.6 768.4 1287.4 1296.5 1287.4 1295.8 1287.4 1294.6 749.4 749.4 749.4 1256.8 1256.8 1256.8 766.0 765.8 765.5 1287.7 1287.5 1287.1 781.0 794.5 779.2 792.8 776.7 790.5 1316.7 1341.6 1314.1 1339.2 1310.7 1336.5 332.3 805.2 805.4 805.1 1362.2 1362.6 1362.4 4.9 1.1 4.9 0.0 5.0 6.9 5.0 6.0 5.0 4.4 7.6 8.5 7.6 7.8 7.6 6.7 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 May June Quarterly Average: 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 4.8 9.3 4.8 4.5 4.8 9.3 3.8 4.5 4.8 9.1 3.0 4.7 9.4 8.9 7.8 6.9 9.4 8.8 7.0 7.0 9.4 8.6 5.9 7.1 11.0 9.8 9.0 7.6 11.0 9.8 8.3 7.6 11.0 9.6 7.3 7.9 1978 QI 2.9 3.9 4.8 5.4 6.4 7.4 6.1 7.0 7.8 Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77 7.1 6.6 6.1 8.4 8.0 7.3 9.5 9.1 8.6 QIII '77-QI '78 3.7 4.2 4.7 6.2 6.7 7.3 6.9 7.4 7.9 Annual QI '77-QI '78 5.5 5.5 5.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy M5 M4 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 April May June 824.0 826.6 830.9 824.0 826.6 830.5 824.0 826.6 830.0 1340.9 1348.3 1357.4 1340.9 1348.3 1356.8 1340.9 1348.3 1356.1 546.3 544.8 548.2 546.3 544.8 547.9 546.3 544.8 547.7 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 812.2 827.2 842.6 861.5 812.2 827.0 841.3 860.6 812.2 826.9 839.7 859.1 1319.7 1348.9 1378.3 1408.6 1319.7 1348.7 1376.2 1407.0 1319.7 1348.4 1373.8 1405.1 541.1 546.4 556.5 570.8 541.1 546.3 555.7 570.4 541.1 546.3 555.0 569.7 1978 QI 882.0 882.5 882.5 1439.0 1439.7 1439.8 588.8 589.2 589.3 3.8 6.2 3.8 5.7 3.8 4.9 6.6 8.1 6.6 7.6 6.6 6.9 -3.3 7.5 -3.3 6.8 -3.3 6.4 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 May June Quarterly Averages: 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 8.7 7.4 7.4 9.0 8.7 7.3 6.9 9.2 8.7 7.2 6.2 9.2 10.6 8.9 8.7 8.8 10.6 8.8 8.2 9.0 10.6 8.7 7.5 9.1 5.4 3.9 7.4 10.3 5.4 3.8 6.9 10.6 5.4 3.8 6.4 10.6 1978 QI 9.5 10.2 10.9 8.6 9.3 9.9 12.6 13.2 13.8 Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77 QIII '77-QI '78 7.5 9.4 7.2 9.8 6.8 10.2 8.9 8.8 8.6 9.2 8.2 9.6 5.7 11.6 5.4 12.1 5.1 12.4 Annual QI '77-QI '78 9.1 8.6 8.0 10.5 9.7 8.9 7.9 7.5 6.9 FOMC longer-run range QI '77-QI '78 8.6 8.7 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.1 8.8 8.9 8.9 more rapidly over the weeks ahead than during the recent past. In the course of April, growth in consumer-type time and savings deposits appears to have been restrained by relatively large nonwithheld tax payments by individuals. Still, growth in the weeks ahead is likely to be slower than the pace during the first quarter in view of the higher level of short- and intermediate-term market rates now prevailing. (10) It appears that market rates have largely adjusted to a Federal funds rate of around 5¼ per cent. However, some further minor upward adjustments in market rates could develop between now and the next Committee meeting even if the funds rate remains unchanged. The Treasury may not be in a position to continue paying off bills in the weekly and monthly auctions after the end of May, and private short-term credit demands are expected to remain generally strong. If the upward adjustments that have already occurred in the commercial paper rate are sustained, a further rise in the bank prime rate is possible within the next few weeks. (11) We would expect the funds rate and other interest rates, particularly short-term rates, to rise substantially after midyear, as the demands for money and credit continue to be generally strong and the Treasury once again becomes a sizable net borrower. By the first quarter of 1978, the staff anticipates a funds rate of around 7 per cent under alternative B, if M1 growth is to be near the mid-point of the Committee's 4 -6 per cent range for the QI'77-QI'78 -9period. This is a somewhat higher funds rate than the funds rate projected for the first quarter of 1976 in the previous bluebook. This upward revision reflects the need for greater restraint in M growth over the last three quarters of the target period in view of the 9¼ per cent annual growth rate in M1 now expected for the second quarter. With the somewhat higher interest rates anticipated, inflows of interest-bearing deposits in M 2 and M3 would probably slow, and growth in these aggregates over the QI '77-QI '78 period may be around the lower ends of their longer run ranges. (12) Alternative C contemplates a tightening in money market conditions over the next few weeks while alternative A involves an easing. Under alternative C the Federal funds rate would be expected to rise to the mid-point of a 5¼-6¼ per cent range. This may be a accompanied by growth in M1 in the May-June period at an annual rate in a range of ½-4½ per cent--about ½ point slower than under alternative B. The immediate retarding effect on M 2 is expected to be somewhat greater under alternative C. With the funds rate rising to around 5¾ per cent, the 3-month bill rate may adjust up to the 5½-5¾ per cent area. Such a substantial further rise in short-term rates to a level well above the ceiling rate on savings deposits is likely to trigger a sizable outflow of savings funds to market instruments. (13) The increases in short-term rates under alternative C would probably also be accompanied by a fairly prompt return to ceiling rates on time deposits at those banks and thrift institutions that had lowered offering rates previously. Banks may also begin to press CD offerings more consistently on the market, partly to lock in funds at current interest costs. Depository institutions are likely to raise their lending rates on business loans and mortgages. Moreover--with outstanding mortgage commitments at record levels-thrifts are likely to become considerably more cautious in making new commitments. In bond markets, rates may show some increase, but these increases may be limited by the continued large volume of institutional funds seeking long-term outlets and by any effect that a tightening of the money market may have in dampening inflationary expectations. (14) An immediate tightening of the money market, such as is called for under alternative C, would probably reduce somewhat the level to which the funds rate would have to rise ultimately to restrain monetary growth to within the FOMC's longer-run ranges. We would expect the funds rate to peak at around 6¾ per cent in the winter of this year. (15) The near-term easing of the money market under alternative A would probably stimulate a substantial rally in debt markets, particularly in light of the sizable short position of U.S. Government security dealers in coupon issues. The staff would not expect any decline in the funds rate to be sustainable, given the strong growth in nominal GNP that is projected. A subsequent rather sharp rise in the funds rate would seem to be required under the circumstances to keep monetary growth rates within their longer-run ranges. -11Directive language (16) Given below are alternatives for the operational paragraphs of the directive. The first formulation, like the directive adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates; it shows--in strike-through form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting (except that the upper limit shown for the funds rate range--5-1/2 per cent--reflects the modification agreed upon on May 6). The second formulation places main emphasis on money market conditions. As suggested below, the particular language needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, at present, it expects the annual growth rates over the[DEL: April-May]MAY-JUNE period to be within the ranges of [DEL: 6 to 10] ____ ____ to ____ to ____ per cent for M-2. per cent for M-1 and [DEL: 8 to 12] In the judgment of the Com- mittee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly average Federal funds rate of about [DEL: 4-3/4] ____ per cent. If, -12giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the midpoints of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of[DEL: 4-1/2 to 5-1/2]____ to ____ per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or to achieve somewhat easier or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longerrun ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, the Committee seeks to maintain the weekly average Federal funds rate at about ____ per cent, so long as M-1 and M-2 appear to be growing over the May-June period period at annual rates within ranges of ____ cent and ____ to ____ to ____ per cent, respectively. per If, giving -13approximately equal weight to M-l and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly average Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____ to ____ per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. Appendix I Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QI '77 to QIII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Nonborrowed Reserves 0.5 1.2 0.0 Total Reserves 5.0 4.7 4.4 Monetary Base 7.7 7.6 7.5 On average, thus far in the second quarter nonborrowed reserves have grown at a 3.4 per cent annual rate from the first quarter of 1977 and total reserves have increased at a 3.7 per cent annual rate. The growth in nonborrowed reserves is above, and the growth in total reserves below, longer-run growth rates shown for these reserve aggregate measures in the table above. Growth of nonborrowed reserves is expected to moderate in the months ahead as the System provides less reserves through Desk operations and banks borrow more through the discount window. Demand for borrowings is expected to be greater over the months ahead, given the present discount rate and expectations of a rising Federal funds rate, and growth in total reserves may be accelerating somewhat. Growth in the monetary base has averaged 7.0 per cent thus far in the second quarter, near the longer-run growth rate shown for this aggregate. Appendix II Projected Federal Funds Rate 1977 1978 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 4-7/8 5-1/8 5-3/8 QIII 6 6 6% QIV 7 6% 6% 7k 7 6% QII QI Appendix III Implied Velocity Growth Rates X1 (GNP/M) 1977 1978 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C II 4.0 4.0 4.0 III 6.5 7.5 8.3 IV 7.6 7.5 7.2 I 8.9 8.0 7.1 II 4.5 4.6 III 4.3 5.4 IV 5.1 5.0 I 5.5 4.4 V2 (GNP/M2 ) 1977 1978 CHART 1 5/13/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 340 S( - 320 -300 ER MONEY SUPPLY M2 1975 1976 1977 1977 CHART 2 5/13/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 550 530 510 500 RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 37 S 35 TOTAL 34 0 1975 1976 1977 CHART 3 5/13/77 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES ONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT -- 9 INTEREST RATES Long-term PER CENT 7 -6 F.R. DISCOUNT RATE L5 FUNDS RATE 4 RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I1 )WED 0 D -1 1975 1976 1977 1975 1976 1977 1975 1976 1977 Table 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES MAY 13, 1977 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (Ml) (M2) Period MONTHLY Adjusted Credit Proxy Total U S. Govt. Depositsj Total Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD'S Other Total Savings 8 CD'S Nondeposit Member Sources of U.S.Govt. Funds Deposits 2 3 4 5 6 7 314.5 316.1 321.3 (322.6) 749.1 754.2 762.4 (765.6) 539.5 542.9 546.3 (544.8) 11.7 11.2 10.8 ( 10.5) 497.8 500.2 502.7 (504.0) 434.5 438.0 441.1 (443.1) 207.1 208.8 210.2 (211.5) 227.4 229.2 230.9 (231.6) 4.9 7.7 4.2 10.4 12.8 8.1 1.8 11.5 3.0 6.2 14.6 8.5 14.5 16.7 10.8 19.0 28.7 14.7 10.8 6.5 7.3 -40.5 1.3 -7.0 4.4 6.8 4.8 9.1 12.2 9.4 3.9 8.2 5.4 7.0 11.5 11.3 12.8 16.3 12.7 13.4 26.9 20.5 12.0 7.3 6.1 -24.6 -18.9 1.9 ( 0.8 6.1 19.7 4.9) ( 6.6 8.2 13.0 5.0) ( -2.9 7.6 7.5 -3.3) ( 12.3 9.9 8.0 7.4) ( 12.3) ( 9.1) ( 2.1) ( 7.8) 11 10 9 1 LLVELS-SBIL 1977--FB. MAR. APR. MAY 63.3 62.2 61.6 ( 61.0) ( 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.6) ( 2.5 2.8 3.6 2.5) % ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1976-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR. MONTHLY 1977-FEB. MAR. APR. MAY APR.-MAY ( 9.7 5.8 6.0 3.1) ( 10.6 9.7 8.5 5.4) ( 4.61 ( 7.0) ( 9.0 9.5 8.9 3.6) 3.8 -20.9 -11.6 ( -11.7) ( 6.3) ( -11.6) WEEKLY LEVELS-$BIL 1977-APR. 6 13 20 27 320.3 321.4 321.0 322.8 761.3 763.0 761.7 764.0 546.7 547.1 547.9 545.6 8.7 10.6 13.4 10.6 503.5 503.2 502.0 502.5 441.1 441.6 440.7 441.3 209.8 210.4 210.0 210.3 231.3 231.2 230.7 230.9 62.4 61.6 61.3 61.2 7.4 7.8 7.9 7.9 2.6 2.8 6.4 2.9 MAY 4 321.2 762.6 544.5 11.6 502.7 441.4 210.7 230.7 61.3 7.3 2.8 NOTE: 1/ P - DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL PRELIMINARY , RESERVE BANKS. CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES MAY 13, 1977 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period MONTHLY REQUIRED RESERVES _ Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LEVELS-SMILLIONS 34,397 34,308 34,685 (34,740) 1977--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY 34,326 34,204 34,612 134,581) 119,079 119,573 120,750 (121,409) 349199 34,093 34,494 (34,580) 20,416 20,403 20,608 120,761) 12,059 12,123 12,162 (12,0971 1,724 1,567 1,724 ( 1,722) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-3RD QTR. 0.6 1.3 6.1 0.7 3.8 -5.2 47H QTR. 7.6 7.7 8.0 6.8 1.6 8.0 -1.8 -2.4 5.2 -1.1 3.7 6.9 1976--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 2.7 4.4 2.6 4.8 6.3 7.1 2.4 4.0 3.0 3.2 -0.7 -0.7 1977--1ST QTR. 2.7 2.6 6.8 3.0 5.0 9.5 1977--1ST QTR. QUARTERLY-AV MONTHLY -13.1 -3.1 13.2 ( 1.9) 1977--FEB. MAR APR. MAY APR.-MAY ( 7.6) -13.3 -4.3 14.3 I -1.1) 1 6.6) 1 -0.2 5.0 11.8 6.51 £ -10.9 -3.7 14.1 3.01 I 9.2) ( 8.6) -12.7 -0.8 12.1 ( 8.9) ( 1.5 6.4 3.9 -6.4) I ( -1.3) 10.5) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1977-APR. MAY NOTEs 6 13 20 27 34,512 34,229 34,755 34,947 34,447 34,191 34,726 34,848 120,273 119,862 120,890 121,543 34,256 33,955 34,721 34,782 20,495 20,180 20,744 20,923 12,148 12,180 12,211 12.146 1,612 1 594 1, 76b 1,713 4 11 35,324 34,635 35,110 34,479 121,592 120,812 35,029 34,653 20,783 20.886 12,072 12,056 2174 1,711 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. TABLE 3 1/ NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period Within 1 year -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 Total 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 167 129 196 1,070 642 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 Within 1 year STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MAY 13, 1977 Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 592 400 1,665 824 469 Total Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 1,022 3,371 1,398 436 1,256 1,654 392 304 -363 2,067 45 -886 115 109 554 796 226 245 156 134 1,052 1,284 171 77 881 794 345 232 160 192 1,557 1,294 1,164 192 997 325 165 1,680 1976--Nov. Dec. -733 -570 18 113 62 73 266 -- 41 37 36 59 681 170 119 1,029 - -- -- - -- 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2,222 -691 -368 45 L07 41 475 348 174 128 151 46 48 81 37 695 687 298 - --- --- ---- Apr. 1,392 20 327 104 38 489 -- 173 138 --- --- --- --- ------- ---- ---- 174 46 37 298 - -- -- -- -- -- ---327 ---104 1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. I II III IV 1977--Qtr. I 1977--Mar. Apr. May LEVEL May I/ 2/ 3/ / 5/ / 2 9 16 23 30 -253 -368 6 13 20 27 -151 -109 585 784 4 11 18 25 533 245 11 (in billions) S 41 -- 41.6 20 --38 S - -- -- 10.5 30.9 10.0 5.5 -- -- Net RP's 6/ 2,738 -4,771 -377 403 -3,930 5,976 --- 2,908 -45 -125 -6,877 1,931 175 35 346 2,176 2,822 ---- --- -278 -371 -25 -3,071 -3,576 -2,310 - -- -- -- -- -- -- 288 -6 -6 -4,210 -------- ---- ---- ---- ---- 572 1,258 -9,141 7,954 3,549 822 - -- -- -- - -- 866 227 2,779 -2,892 56.9 1.4 3.5 1.4 105.6 3.1 -- --489 - -- .8 115 7.1 -177 -117 9,665 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemption (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC MAY 13, 1977 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Underwriting Syndicate Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds (4) (3) (FR) Bank Reserve Positions _Member Borrowinz at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** Reserves (5) Total (6) Seasonal (7) 8 New York 38 Others Bills (1) Coupon Issues (2) 1976--High Low 8,896 3,668 3,046 175 334 0 343 34 655 -180 242 24 34 8 -8,161 -2,367 -12,744 - 6,908 1977--High Low 7,234 *1,729 3,017 *199 163 17 350 125 513 -111 339 20 18 8 -8,742 -4,293 -13,9?5 - 9,010 1976--Apr. May. June 5,570 4,239 4,996 605 591 582 69 95 100 133 199 196 155 210 214 43 114 127 10 11 20 -5,179 -4,402 -4,219 -10,783 - 8,151 - 9,158 July Aug. Sept. 5,743 6,174 7,838 904 1,686 1,509 106 85 95 211 116 172 234 207 205 132 100 63 25 31 31 -4,756 -4,624 -5,703 - 9,399 - 9,691 - 9,716 Oct. 6,271 1,832 94 258 221 94 32 -6,428 -10,527 Nov. Dec. 6,876 8,005 2,418 2,443 79 145 217 167 257 274 72 53 22 13 -6,289 -7,168 -11,618 -11,449 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. 6,406 4,450 4,906 2,320 1,605 972 82 72 103 202 226 162 265 198 214 68 72 103 10 12 13 -6,421 -5,604 -5,661 -11,504 -11,503 -10,912 Apr. *4,567 *696 101 173 192p 14p -6,586 -11,409 2 9 16 23 4,232 5,174 5,342 4,814 913 354 303 275 63 111 163 51 155 137 163 180 150 273 168 77 30 20 24 338 12 12 12 13 -4,716 -6,353 -6,912 -5,079 -10,869 -11,550 -11,527 -11,539 30 3,140 453 125 175 354 58 14 -4,933 - 9,318 Apr. 6 13 20 27 6,208 6,670 *6,025 *1,729 761 453 *1,103 *582 39 0 231 34 232 144 125 192 256 274 34 165p 65 38 29 99p 14 13 14 15p -5,652 -7,445 -7,119 -5,518 -11,318 -13,727 -11,568 - 9,122 May 4 11 18 25 *2,474 *2,778 *421 *199 350 175p 295p -26p 214p 155p 18p 22p -5,581p -7,410p - 9,299p -10,790p 1977--Mar. 33 35p 73p NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC MAY 13, 1977 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) Federal Funds Short-term Treasury Bills Commercial Paper 90-Day 1-Year 90-119 Day CD's New Issue-NYC 90-Day 60-Day U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 3-yr 7-yr 20-yr Long-term Corp.-Aaa Utility Municipal New Recently Bond Issue Offered Buyer Home Mortgages Primary Secondary Market Cony. FNMA Auc. GNMA Sec. (15) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) 1976--High Low 5.58 4.63 5.53 4.27 6.32 4.62 5.90 4.63 5.63 4.40 5.75 4.50 7.52 5.65 7.89 6.33 8.17 7.23 8.95 7.93 8.94 7.84 7.13 5.83 9.10 8.70 8.45 7.57 1977--High Low 5.31 4.47 4.87 4.41 5.41 4.67 5.05 4.63 5.00 4.48 5.13 4.63 6.59 5.83 7.33 6.59 7.79 7.26 8.33 7.90 8.35 7.95 5.93 5.68 8.78 8.65 8.08 7.56 1976--Apr. May June 4.82 5.29 5.48 4.86 5.20 5.41 5.54 5.98 6.12 5.08 5.44 5.83 4.81 5.25 5.55 4.94 5.38 5.68 6.84 7.27 7.32 7.44 7.77 7.76 7.86 8.13 8.03 8.48 8.82 8.72 8.52 8.77 8.73 6.60 6.87 6.87 8.73 8.77 8.85 8.89 9.09 9.13 8.10 8.33 8.35 July Aug. Sept. 5.31 5.29 5.25 5.23 5.14 5.08 5.82 5.64 5.50 5.54 4.35 5.33 5.30 5.23 5.11 5.42 5.31 5.24 7.12 6.86 6.66 7.70 7.58 7.41 8.00 7.91 7.78 8.63 8.52 8.29 8.63 8.50 8.33 6.79 6.61 6.51 8.93 9.00 8.98 9.05 8.99 8.88 8.37 8.30 8.10 Oct. 5.03 4.95 4.65 4.92 4.75 4.35 5.19 5.00 4.64 5.10 4.98 4.66 4.90 4.84 4.48 5.04 4.94 4.50 6.24 6.09 5.68 7.16 6.86 6.37 7.70 7.64 7.30 8.25 8.17 7.94 8.24 8.18 7.93 6.30 6.29 5.94 8.93 8.81 8.79 8.75 8.66 8.45 7.98 7.93 7.59 4.61 4.68 4.69 4,62 4.67 4.60 5.00 5.16 5.19 4.72 4.76 4.75 4.61 4.58 4.58 4.68 4.70 4.72 6.22 6.44 6.47 6.92 7.16 7.20 7.48 7.64 7.73 8.08 8.22 8.25 8.09 8.19 8.29 5.87 5.89 5.89 8.72 8.67 8.69 8.48 8.55 8.68 7.83 7.98 8.06 4.73 4.54 5.10 4.75 4.57 4.67 6.32 7.11 7.67 8.26 8.22 5.73 8.75 8.67 7.96 4.70 4.64 4.59 4.57 4.59 5.25 5.23 5.17 5.16 5.18 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.63 4.63 4.63 4.50 4.50 4.77 4.77 4.75 4.63 4.70 6.49 6.50 6.46 6.44 6.45 7.22 7.23 7.17 7.18 7.22 7.75 7.76 7.72 7.71 7.74 -8.30 8.23 8.22 8.26 8.27 8.32 8.27 8.28 8.28 5.92 8.65 -- 8.06 5.92 8.70 8.66 8.08 16 23 30 4.68 4.63 4.62 4.77 4.74 5.90 8.70 -- 8.08 5.88 8.70 8.70 8.02 5.85 8.70 -- 8.06 6 13 20 27 4.60 4.65 4.71 4.82 4.56 4.58 4.51 4.50 5.14 5.10 4.99 5.13 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.58 4.58 4.50 4.63 4.63 4.70 4.67 4.70 6.45 6.22 6.23 6.38 7.22 7.06 7.04 7.14 7.72 7.65 7.62 7.69 8.26 8.25 8.21 8.31 8.25 8.16 8.21 8.25 4 11 18 25 5.15 5.31 4.65 4.87 5.24 5.41 4.83 5.05 4.65 5.00 4,80 5.13 6.49 6 .59p 7.27 7.33p 7.74 7.79p -8.33p 8.33 8.35p 5 12 5.21 5.33p 4.74 5.00 5.29 5.49 4.88 5.25 6.50 6.60p 7.27 7.33p 7.74 7.78p Nov. Dec. 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 1977--Mar. 2 9 Apr. May Daily--May - -- - -- (14) 5.79 8.75 8.72 8.01 5.70 8.75 -- 7.99 5.73 8.78 8.62 7.89 5.68 8.78 -- 7.96 5.76 5.82 8.78 n.a. 8.70 8.06 - 8.08 NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMAyields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for Immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Period Total Nonborrowed Monetary Base __ 1 1977 Total Ad. Loans Credit proxy and Invest. ments M1 4 5 6 L, 2 13, MONEY STOCK MEASURES CREDIT MEASURES SBANK BANK RESERVES V MAY ..Percent annual rate ofr M3 M2 7 M4 MS Mg M7 9 10 11 12 owth) ANNUALLY: 7.2 -0.5 1.3 1974 1975 1976 9.4 1.3 1.6 9.3 5.8 6.9 0.9 5.8 6.5 7.1 9.2 4.4 7.3 4.7 4.1 6.1 7.2 8.5 11.3 6.7 11.3 13.1 9.0 9.7 10.6 8.8 10.8 10.0 9.0 10.6 10.4 3.5 4.5 2.8 6.9 10.2 9.1 10.8 10.6 3.0 6.7 7.7 6.7 5.7 6.3 10.2 11.8 11.7 13.8 8.9 11.8 8.9 10.7 9.2 11.0 8.5 5.5 7.9 6.8 4.9 7.7 9.1 10.4 12.8 10.7 12.9 14.1 9.0 9.9 13.5 9.0 9.2 11.9 9.7 12.3 4.2 8.1 9.7 9.0 9.1 8.9 10.2 3.9 4.9 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 0.3 1975 1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976 4.1 -1.4 4.5 3.1 O.6 7.6 2.2 1.3 7.7 -1.4 QUARTERLY: 2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976 4TH QTR. 1976 1ST QTR. -2.4 -1.8 1977 8.2 6.1 8.0 4.0 1.8 11.5 5.2 3.0 11.5 9.4 QUARTERLY-AV9 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH OTR. 1976 1976 1976 0.6 2.7 4.4 0.4 2.6 4.8 8.2 6.3 7.1 2.2 3.9 8.2 8.7 5.8 8.6 8.2 4.4 6.8 10.5 9.1 12.2 11.8 11.4 14.2 9.1 9.3 12.5 9.1 9.2 11.1 9.5 9.7 11.4 1ST QTR. 1977 2.7 2.6 6.8 5.4 B.9 4.8 9.4 11.0 10.6 10.1 10.1 0.9 4.1 4.1 2.0 5.9 -6.2 6.0 11.6 4.9 1.3 1.6 3.7 1.8 7.0 -4.8 4.9 12.6 5.6 11.2 8.0 5.4 6.5 6.6 5.1 7.1 9.1 7.7 2.1 -3.7 13.5 3.2 0.7 1.6 11.9 11.3 10.8 11.1 6.3 7.9 2.2 8.4 5.8 12.1 9.6 1.7 14.9 6.8 -1.2 7.1 5.9 1.6 14.1 0.4 8.5 14.1 8.9 4.3 12.0 8.8 10.0 15.7 9.9 12.5 14.1 10.5 7.1 12.8 12.3 13.3 16.7 12.2 13.1 11.1 7.3 8.3 10.8 7.9 10.8 15.1 10.9 7.4 8.6 11.1 7.0 8.6 14.5 10.5 10.4 11.2 t.2 9.3 10.7 -0.2 5.0 11.8 4.5 8.9 14.5 10.7 13.9 5.8 0.8 6.1 19.7 9.3 6.6 8.2 13.0 11.2 8.7 9.2 12.4 10.5 8.4 7.7 11.3 10.8 9.7 6.6 10.8 9.3 6.4 10.5 MONTHLY s 1976--APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 10.9 -13.1 -3.1 13.2 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. P C 10.4 -13.3 -4.3 14.3 * - C- -2.9 7.6 7.5 C - I I I S 11.5 13.4 I 10.7 S I ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.B I/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMEN P - PRELIMINARY NOTES: LOANS SOLD 10 BANK- 12.1 7.2 8.7 14.6 11.0 10.9 MAY APPENDIX TABLE 1-B 13, 1977 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MONEY STOCK MEASURES SBANK CREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES V Total Period borrowed Monetary Base Adj. Credit proxy 2 3 4 34,174 34,015 34,465 33,447 33,885 34,412 104,380 110,394 118,051 494.6 513.8 538.8 33,545 33,661 33,776 33,501 33,546 33,650 112,747 113.498 114,009 JULY AUG. SEPT. 33,833 33,998 33,823 33,701 33,897 33,761 OCT. NOV. DEC. 33,992 34,325 34,465 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. Non Loans and Investments 5 MI MM M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 695.2 725.5 778.? 283.1 294.8 312.8 612.4 664.3 739.3 981.5 1092.6 1236.1 701.4 746.5 802.6 1070.5 1174.7 1299.3 1181.2 1308.4 1439.7 1221.6 1351.0 1491.1 517.2 515.6 521.4 744.5 748.4 753.3 301.8 303.5 303.2 690.6 695.7 698.2 1139.7 1149.7 1156.5 761.8 764.3 768.4 1210.9 1218.3 1226.7 1348.7 1357.0 1366.7 1393.0 1402.5 1413.4 114,625 115,252 115,739 522.8 523.1 523.8 754.7 760.0 763.7 305.0 306.5 306.9 705.2 710.4 716.3 1168.8 1180.8 1193.9 774.1 775.4 779.4 1237.7 1245.8 1257.0 1380.0 1388.1 1398.0 1427.7 1436.3 1446.7 33,898 34,253 34,412 116,424 117,303 118,051 529.0 534.0 538.8 771.4 777.6 778.7 310.5 310.6 312.8 725.7 731.7 739.3 1210.5 1222.8 1236.1 788.0 794.0 802.6 1272.8 1285.0 1299.3 1414.9 1427.3 1439.7 1464.3 1477.7 1491.1 34,778 34,397 34,308 34,710 34,326 34,204 119,101 119,079 119,573 540.8 539.5 542.9 784.5 794.0 801.1 314.3 314.5 316.1 745.0 749.1 754.2 1247.6 1256.6 1266.2 808.0 812.3 816.3 1310.7 1319.9 1328.4 1452.7 1464.5 1472.6 1504.5 1516.1 1524.2 P 34,685 34,612 120,750 546.3 810.4 321.3 762.4 1279.3 824.0 1340.9 1485.7 1537.5 9 16 23 30 34,048 34,242 34,139 34,761 34,028 34,218 33,801 34,703 118,837 119,355 119,5Z4 120,569 541.0 543.6 543.6 541.1 315.6 317.2 316.0 315.0 752.4 755.0 754.7 754.2 814.8 817.0 816.5 816.7 APR. 6 13 20 27P 34,512 34,229 34,755 34,947 34,447 34,191 34,726 34,848 120,273 119,862 120,890 121,543 546.7 547.1 547.9 545.6 320.3 321.4 321.0 322.8 761.3 763.0 761.7 764.0 823.8 824.6 823.0 825.2 MAY 4P 35,324 35,110 121,592 544.5 321.2 762.6 823.9 STotal 1 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 MONTHLY: 1976--APR. MAY JUNE APR. WEEKLY: 1977-MAR. NOTES: ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. MEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR H3, M5, M6, MT, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. MAY APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 13, 1977 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Period Currency Demand Deposits Other Than CD's Total Total 1 2 3 4 i , ||es CD's Savings Other 5 6 7 Mutual Savings Bank & S&L Shares- Credit Union Shares Savings Bonds 8 9 10 short Te Commercial ercial U.S. Gov't Paper ecurities Securities it 11 12 (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: 10.2 8.7 9.4 1974 1975 1976 3.0 2.6 5.0 14.9 8.0 8.4 9.4 12.2 15.4 7.0 17.8 25.5 11.2 8.2 7.7 41.3 -7.8 -22.9 5.5 15.7 15.8 12.2 19.6 18.2 4.8 6.3 6.8 9.7 40.1 3.2 17.1 5.4 20.7 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2NO HALF 1975 7.9 1.0 7.7 10.4 16.0 6.1 -3.6 15.2 17.8 6.4 52.0 5.3 15T HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976 10.3 8.0 4.2 5.8 6.0 10.5 13.8 15.9 23.6 24.5 6.4 8.7 -29.0 -19.7 13.8 16.7 16.4 18.5 6.2 7.2 12.7 -5.9 19.2 20.1 0.6 -17.4 -40.5 1.3 12.7 16.9 15.9 15.1 17.9 18.2 6.4 8.1 6.2 12.9 -1.7 -10.2 28.4 17.1 22.2 -7.0 12.0 16.4 6.1 15.8 1.6 UUARTRLY: 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1976 1976 1976 9.5 8.8 7.1 5.8 3.7 7.7 6.2 14.6 11.1 14.5 16.7 13.6 19.0 28.7 8.9 10.8 6.5 IST QTR. 1977 8.9 2.8 8.5 10.8 14.7 7.3 2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976 4TH 01R. 1976 11.2 7.8 8.1 7.0 3.2 6.2 5.4 7.0 11.5 12.4 12.8 16.3 21.7 13.4 26.9 4.9 1Z.0 7.3 -30.1 -24.6 -18.9 13.5 14.6 17.2 16.5 15.9 18.5 5.9 7.5 6.8 11.8 10.3 -8.9 19.4 23.7 18.3 1ST QTR. 1977 8.5 3.6 11.3 12.7 20.5 6.1 1.9 13.3 16.7 6.7 5.7 9.5 1976--APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 14.3 11.0 3.1 9.3 7.7 9.2 9.1 7.5 4.5 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.9 5.3 -1.1 15.8 -2.1 9.4 5.8 1.8 12.0 9.5 -0.3 9.2 12.7 14.8 15.9 14.0 9.9 9.2 15.2 11.4 16.3 17.0 17.3 15.1 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 30.0 26.2 28.0 6.8 3.4 16.4 18.4 2.7 10.9 6.0 9.7 3.7 -36.0 -43.8 28.0 -22.2 -67.9 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2 13.8 13.0 10.9 13.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 15.3 13.8 17.4 13.8 13.6 16.8 16.6 19.6 19.3 15.8 18.8 7.0 5.2 7.0 6.9 8.6 8.5 5.1 6.8 6.7 12.3 12.2 13.8 34.0 -11.6 -26.7 10.2 -3.4 -37.3 19.3 32.5 31.6 23.1 15.1 12.4 17.2 24.3 23.8 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. P 10.4 10.3 5.9 13.1 4.7 -2.6 6.2 22.1 9.8 9.7 5.8 6.0 11.8 10.6 9.7 8.5 21.5 12.3 9.9 8.0 3.2 9.0 9.5 8.9 -3.8 3.8 -20.9 -11.6 14.2 11.4 10.0 10.7 15.4 15.2 18.0 17.7 6.7 6.6 5.0 6.6 22.8 37.8 -13.3 3.4 7.0 -2.3 0.0 4.7 QUAR ktRLY-AV: MONTHLY: 1/ P - GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. APPENDIX TABLE 2-B MAY 13, 1977 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Tim. and S.vln De., t M.utua l Bank Currency Demand Period 1 2 ort- 3 Union Svings 9 10 Non Total mercial Deposit Govt 12 13 Co- S Credit gs S aV and Savingn Dep .S posits Sec Shares I Total 4 Savings 5 Other 6 7 8 369.6 136.2 160.5 193.1 209.0 225.1 89.0 82.1 63.3 341.5 395.2 457.8 27.6 33.0 39.0 63.3 67.3 71.9 47.4 66.4 71.2 68.6 70.2 414.2 418.7 422.5 34.9 35.7 68.7 69.0 69.4 11 14 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 40.4 42.6 51.4 6.0 0.3 11.2 69.1 69.8 70.6 44.3 7.6 45.5 46.7 1.9 69.8 70.3 70.8 72.6 71.9 70.3 47.6 48.2 457.8 70.9 70.7 68.5 49.4 38.4 39.0 71.1 71.5 71.9 50.4 51.4 13.0 11.2 63.1 63.3 62.2 463.2 467.6 471.5 39.5 40.0 40.6 72.3 72.7 73.0 69.8 72.0 71.2 51.7 51.6 51.6 1i.0 230.9 61.6 475.7 41.2 73.4 71.4 51.8 10.6 208.5 208.7 208.9 209.2 228.4 229.1 229.8 229.9 62.4 62.0 61.8 231.3 441.3 209.8 210.4 210.0 210.3 231.2 230.7 230.9 62.4 61.6 61.3 61.2 441.4 210.7 230.7 61.3 67.8 73.7 80.6 215.3 221.0 232.1 418.3 451.7 489.8 329.3 426.5 201.4 1976--APR. MAY JUNE 76.6 77.3 77.5 225.2 226.2 225.6 460.0 460.7 465.3 388.9 392.1 395.1 176.7 179.4 212.2 212.8 215.7 JULY AUG. SEPT. 78.1 78.6 79.2 226.9 227.9 227.7 469.0 400.1 468.9 403.9 409.4 181.1 184.4 187.9 219.0 219.5 221.5 68.9 65.0 63.1 427.4 433.8 440.3 36.2 36.7 37.3 OCT. NOV. DEC. 79.8 80.3 230.7 230.3 477.5 489.8 222.6 224.4 225.1 62.3 62.2 63.3 37.9 232.1 192.6 196.8 201.4 446.9 452.6 80.6 415.2 421.2 426.5 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR. 81.3 82.0 82.4 233.0 232.5 233.7 493.8 497.8 500.2 430.7 434.5 438.0 205.0 207.1 208.8 225.7 227.4 229.2 P 83.3 238.0 502.7 441.1 210.2 9 16 23 30 82.3 82.3 82.5 82.9 233.3 234.9 499.2 499.7 500.5 501.7 436.9 437.8 438.7 439.1 6 13 20 27P 83.2 82.8 503.5 441.1 503.2 441.6 440.7 83.6 237.1 238.6 237.8 239.2 4P 83.4 237.8 502.7 68.5 MONTHLY: APR. 472.5 483.4 179.4 35.3 >.b r,.1 LL.6 IS .U 48.7 11.2 MEEKLY: 1977-MAR. APR. HAY 83.2 I 1/ 2/ P - 233.5 232.1 502.0 502.5 h 11 .5 1.1 11.' 9.7 62.5 h 8.7 10.6 13.4 10.6 11.6 11.6 a ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY a END OF - PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 

Federal Reserve (1977, May 16). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770517

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19770517,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {May},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770517},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}