Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC April 15, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC April 15, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M 1 expanded at about a 5 March. per cent annual rate in However, growth accelerated sharply in the early weeks of April, partly, it seems, as a result of earlier-than-usual disbursement of the regular monthly social security payments. For the March- April period, M1 is now projected to increase at about a 9¼ per cent annual rate--above the 8 per cent upper limit of the Committee's desired range. M 2 grew at somewhat more than an 8 per cent annual rate in March. While its growth also accelerated in early April, this was due entirely to the more rapid expansion of M1; the March-April growth for M 2 still appears to be well below the upper limit of the Committee's range. Nonborrowed reserves fell in March. With the recent pick-up in deposit growth at member banks, however, they are expected to grow rapidly in April. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over March-April period 1/ (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates M1 4½ to 8½ 9.2 M2 7 to 11 9.8 Avg. for statement Memorandum: week ending 4.62 Mar. 16 23 4.77 30 4.74 4.60 Apr. 6 13 4.65 Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 1/ These figures do not incorporate the quarterly benchmark revisions of monetary aggregates that will be published on April 21. The benchmark revisions (based on the September call report) are relatively small. The level of M for recent months revised up no more than $700 million. The monthly levels of M 2 were adjusted by even smaller amounts. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of Tables 1 and 2, following the charts) are based on the new series. The new and old series are compared in Appendix V. (2) Over most of the intermeeting period, incoming data suggested that March-April growth rates for M within their respective ranges. and M 2 would be well The Desk, therefore, continued to aim for a Federal funds rate in the area of 4-5/8--4¾ per cent. Most recently, with growth in M1 exceeding its two-month range, the Desk has sought a funds rate around 4¾ per cent. (3) Credit demands have remained sizable in recent weeks. Business short-term borrowing appears to have slackened from the high rate of January-February, but public offerings of long-term corporate bonds have picked up a little. State and local governments security issues have remained very large. The Federal Government borrowed $3.6 billion of new cash through issues of 2- and 5-year notes since the March FOMC meeting. In addition the Treasury sold $4.5 billion of short-dated cash management bills to bridge a low point in its cash balance prior to the April tax date. (4) Market interest rates showed little change over most of the intermeeting period. But when the President's intention to withdraw the rebate program became known, interest rates fell sharply. The subsequent publication of data indicating a record weekly growth of M1 in early April had very little offsetting market impact. On balance, over the inter- meeting period, most short-term rates have declined 5 to 15 basis points, bond yields are down 10 to 20 basis points, and intermediate-term Treasury coupon yields are off as much as 35 basis points. (5) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. -4- 1975 & 1976 Average Past Past Twelve Months Mar. '77 over Mar. '76 Six Months Mar. '77 over Sept. '76 Three Months Mar. '77 over Dec. '76 Past Month Mar. '77 over Feb. '77 Past Nonborrowed reserves 1.4 2.2 2.6 -2.4 -4.2 Total reserves 0.4 2.4 2.9 -1.8 -3.0 Monetary Base 6.5 7.0 6.6 5.2 5.0 5.2 6.0 6.0 4.2 6.1 10.4 10.5 10.6 8.0 8.0 institutions) 13.0 12.4 12.1 9.7 8.9 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 7.2 8.0 9.5 6.8 5.9 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 10.7 10.7 11.3 8.9 7.5 Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 4.5 5.1 7.2 2.9 7.1 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 6.0 8.6 9.8 11.5 10.7 -1.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 -1.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.4 Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 (2 plus deposits at thrift Bank Credit Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (6) Alternative longer-run ranges for the monetary aggregates are shown below for Committee consideration. Alternatives A through C are the staff's estimates of consistent sets of specifications that pertain to the one-year QI '77-QI '78 period. The ranges earlier adopted by the Committee for the QIV '76-QIV '77 period are shown in the fourth column. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 5½-7½ 4½-6½ 3½-5½ M2 8-11 6½-9½ 5½-8½ M3 9-12 7½-10½ 6-9 8½-11½ 8½-11½ 7½-10½ 7-10 7-10 Bank credit proxy (7) Current 4½-6½ 7-10 Alternative B encompasses a one-year growth rate for M1 of 4½-6½ per cent, the same range as is currently in place. However, growth ranges for M2 and M 3 under this alternative are lower--by ½ percentage point for M 2 and 1 percentage point for M 3 . Lower ranges for the broader aggregates relative to M1 are expected mainly because the new ranges now apply to a period that excludes QIV '76, when relatively low market rates produced large inflows of time and savings deposits at depository institutions, and instead includes QI '78, when relatively high market interest rates are expected to dampen such flows.1/ (8) Shorter-run ranges for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate that are thought to be consistent with the 1/ Appendix I compares terminal levels of M1 and M2 under the proposed alternatives with levels implicit in the current ranges. -6various longer-run ranges are presented below. (Detailed data are shown in the tables on pp. 7 and 8). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 6½-10½ 6-10 5½-9½ M2 8½-12½ 8-12 7½-11½ 3¾-4¾ 4¼-5¼ Ranges for April-May Federal funds rate (intermeeting period) (9) 4¾-5¾ Under alternative B (as well as the other two alternatives), growth in M1 is expected to be relatively sizable in the April-May period, reflecting the large increase in M1 that is apparently under way in April. We expect the exceptionally large April growth to be partly offset by relatively small growth rates in May and June. However, for the second quarter, M1 is anticipated to grow at about a 7 per cent annual rate, a more rapid pace than in the past few quarters, reflecting the recent strengthening of economic activity and presumably also of transactions demands for money. (10) M 2 growth under alternative B is expected to be in an 8-12 per cent annual rate range during the April-May period, and to expand at about a 9¼ per cent annual rate from the first to second quarter. Time and savings deposits other than large CD's are expected to expand over the next few weeks at close to their recent pace, given a Federal funds rate around the mid-point of a 4¼-5¼ per cent range. (11) Over the next few weeks, demands on credit markets are likely to be quite moderate. Without the rebate program, Treasury Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates Alt. A Alt. B March April May 316.1 319.6 320.7 316.1 319.6 320.4 316.1 319.6 320.2 754.1 761.3 767.5 1976 QIV 311.3 311.3 311.3 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 315.0 325.7 330.6 315.0 320.5 324.9 329.0 QI 335.6 13.3 4.1 1977 1978 320.9 Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 754.1 761.3 766.7 754.1 761.3 765.9 1265.9 1277.7 1289.2 1265.9 1277.7 1287.9 1265.9 1277.7 1286.5 732.2 732.2 732.2 1223.1 1223.1 1223.1 315.0 320.1 323.7 326.1 749.4 767.6 785.0 801.7 749.4 766.6 782.2 796.7 749.4 765.6 778.7 789.7 1256.7 1289.5 1323.0 1355.1 1256.7 1287.8 1317.3 1344.1 1256.7 1286.1 1310.4 1330.8 332.3 329.1 818.6 810.0 800.9 1387.7 1369.1 1351.0 13.3 3.0 13.3 2.3 11.5 9.8 11.5 8.5 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 April May 11.5 7.3 11.2 10.8 11.2 9.6 11.2 8.3 Quarterly Average: 1977 QIV 4.8 7.5 6.0 6.0 4.8 7.0 5.5 5.0 4.8 6.5 4.5 3.0 9.4 9.7 9.1 8.5 9.4 9.2 8.1 7.4 9.4 8.6 6.8 5.7 11.0 10.4 10.4 9.7 11.0 9.9 9.2 8.1 11.0 9.4 7.6 6.2 QI 6.0 4.0 3.7 8.4 6.7 5.7 9.6 7.4 6.1 Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77 QIII '77-QI '78 6.8 6.1 6.3 4.6 5.5 3.3 9.5 8.6 8.8 7.1 7.8 5.7 10.6 9.8 9.6 7.9 8.5 6.2 Annual QIV '76-QIV '77 QI '77-QI '78 6.2 6.5 5.7 5.5 4.8 4.5 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.1 7.9 6.9 10.8 10.4 9.9 8.9 8.8 7.5 1978 QI QII QIII Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy M5 M Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 March April May 816.3 823.5 829.1 816.3 823.5 828.5 816.3 823.5 827.8 1328.1 1339.9 1350.9 1328.1 1339.9 1349.7 1328.1 1339.9 1348.5 542.7 545.6 548.2 542.7 545.6 547.8 542.7 545.6 547.3 1976 QIV 794.9 794.9 794.9 1285.7 1285.7 1285.7 533.9 533.9 533.9 1977 QI QII QIII 812.2 829.4 848.0 812.2 828.5 845.7 812.2 827.8 843.2 1319.5 1351.3 1386.0 1319.5 1349.7 1380.8 1319.5 1348.3 1375.0 541.0 548.9 562.5 541.0 548.4 561.0 541.0 547.9 559.7 QIV 867.2 863.4 858.6 1420.5 1410.9 1399.7 575.9 573.7 571.0 QI 887.5 880.9 874.5 1456.6 1439.9 1424.6 594.0 590.0 586.4 10.6 8.2 10.6 7.3 10.6 6.3 10.7 9.9 10.7 8.8 10.7 7.7 6.4 5.7 6.4 4.8 6.4 3.7 QI 8.7 8.7 8.7 10.5 10.5 10.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 QII QIII QIV 8.5 9.0 9.1 8.0 8.3 8.4 7.7 7.4 7.3 9.6 10.3 10.0 9.2 9.2 8.7 8.7 7.9 7.2 5.8 9.9 9.5 5.5 9.2 9.1 5.1 8.6 8.1 QI 9.4 8.1 7.4 10.2 8.2 7.1 12.6 11.4 8.8 9.3 8.2 8.3 7.6 7.4 10.1 10.2 9.3 8.6 8.4 7.2 7.9 11.2 7.4 10.3 6.9 9.5 9.1 9.3 8.6 8.5 8.0 7.7 10.5 10.4 9.7 9.1 8.9 8.0 7.9 9.8 7.5 9.1 6.9 8.4 1978 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 April May Quarterly Averages: 1977 1978 Semi-annual QI '77-QIII '77 QIII '77-QI '78 10.8 Annual QIV '76-QIV '77 QI '77-QI '78 borrowing in the second quarter will be reduced by about $8 ½ billion. As a result, the Treasury probably will raise no, or very little, new cash in the market between now and mid-year. The Treasury will announce terms of its mid-May refunding on April 27, and this may well be a routine package of intermediate- and longer-term coupon issues to replace $4.3 billion of publicly held maturing obligations. Corporate bond offerings during the spring are expected to run below the monthly average pace of the first quarter, according to market reports, but offerings of municipal bonds are expected to remain sizable. (12) After mid-year, Treasury demands on credit markets will strengthen considerably. Total private credit demands are also expected to expand along with continued relatively rapid growth in economic activity. With demands for money also anticipated to be rather substantial, interest rates, particularly short-term rates, are likely to rise substantially in the second half of the year if growth in the monetary aggregates is to be maintained around the mid-points of the longer-run ranges shown for alternative B. As shown in appendix III, the staff expects the funds rate under alternative B to average around 4-7/8 per cent in the current quarter, to rise to 5½ per cent in the third, and to reach about 6½ per cent by the first quarter of 1978. (13) These interest rate projections are a little lower than shown in recent blue books for a longer-run M1 growth rate in a 4½-6½ per cent range. In part this reflects reduced Treasury credit demands. But -10it also takes account of the possibility that the demand for money may be somewhat less relative to GNP than we earlier thought--as might be suggested by the acceleration in the income velocity of M1 that occurred during the first quarter of this year without any accompanying rise in short-term rates. Velocity figures for all three alternatives are shown in appendix IV. (14) The projected rise in market interest rates will lead to slower inflows of time and savings deposits other than large CD's to banks and thrift institutions as the year progresses even though institutions that had earlier reduced offering rates on such deposits are likely to re-establish ceiling rates. With loan demands at banks expected to be at least as strong as in the past few months, banks can be expected both to cut down on acquisitions of Treasury securities and also to expand their outstanding volume of CD's. Thrift institutions are also likely to reduce their liquidity over the year--with savings and loan associations increasing their borrowing from the Home Loan Bank System-in order to accommodate outstanding commitments and to become more cautious in making new commitments. come under increasing pressure. As a result the mortgage market would The extent of upward rate pressure in long-term markets in general under this alternative may be fairly moderate, though, given the large cash flow to institutional investors, particularly insurance companies, and assuming inflationary expectations do not worsen. (15) Alternative A contemplates an easing of money market conditions between now and the next Committee meeting, with the funds -11rate dropping to the mid-point of a 3¾-4¾ per cent range. Such a move would be accompanied by somewhat greater growth in the monetary aggregates than under alternative B over the April-May period. In particular, there may be substantial inflows into savings deposits as short-term market rates drop significantly further below ceiling rates on such deposits. This would, of course, increase pressure on institutions to shave their offering rates. (16) The lower interest rates associated with this alternative over the next few weeks are not likely to prove sustainable, however. In view of the apparent strength of the economy, interest rates may be expected to rise even with the more rapid longer-run growth in the monetary aggregates encompassed by alternative A. The increase in rates would probably be moderate, though, with the funds rate rising to about 5 per cent by the first quarter of next year. (17) Alternative C involves an increase in the Federal funds rate between now and the next Committee meeting to around 5¼ per cent, the mid-point of a 4¾-5¾ per cent range. Such a funds rate increase at this time may be accompanied by a rise in bill rates of roughly the same magnitude over the next few weeks. The extent of adjustment in bill, as well as longer-term, rates will depend in large part on the market's assessment of the interest rate outlook and on the market's technical condition. At present, dealer positions are relatively low, particularly in the coupon area, and this would tend to moderate upward interest rate adjustments. On the other hand, if many market participants do not expect the Fed to let the money market tighten at this time, evidence of a tightening could cause a more substantial market reaction. -12(18) The immediate tightening of the money market contemplated under alternative C would also more quickly set in train the market and institutional responses described in paragraph (14). Inflows of time and savings deposits would begin to slow in the weeks ahead as the bill rate moved close to and perhaps above the passbook ceiling rate. Large commercial banks could be expected to become more aggressive in the market for CD's and nondeposit sources of funds. And thrift institutions would begin re-evaluating their mortgage market participation. (19) If the growth in M1 over the QI '77-QI '78 period is to be constrained to around the mid-point of the 3½-5½ per cent longerrun range of alternative C, further firming in money market conditions would probably be required as the year progresses. institutions would, of course, intensify. Pressures on financial The staff expects that the Federal funds rate would have to rise to about 6¼ per cent in the third quarter and 7¼ per cent by early 1978. -13Directive language (20) Given below are alternatives for the operational para- graphs of the directive. The first formulation, like the directive adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates; it shows--in strike-through form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting. The second formulation places main emphasis on money market conditions. As suggested below, the particular language needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, at present, it expects the March-April]APRIL-MAY period to be annual growth rates over the [DEL: 4- 1 /2 to 8-1/2]____ within the ranges of [DEL: 7 to _____ 11] for M-1 and [DEL: to ____ to ____ per cent per cent for M-2. In the judgment of the Committee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly average Federal funds rate of about[DEL: 4-5/8 to 4-3/4]____ per cent. If giving, -14approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the midpoints of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion 4-1/4 to 5-1/4]____ within a range of[DEL: to ____ per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or to achieve somewhat easier or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, the Committee seeks to maintain the weekly average Federal funds rate at about ____ per cent, so long as M-1 and M-2 appear to be growing over the APRIL-MAY period at annual rates within ranges of ____ to ____ per cent and ____ to ____ per cent, -15respectively. If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly average Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____ to ____ per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. Appendix I Comparison of Levels of M1 and M2 Under Current and Proposed Longer-run Ranges ($ billion; based on revised series) M1 Level Based on Growth From QIV '76 at a Terminal Quarters Levels based on longer-run growth 5 Per Cent Annual Rate from QI '77 at rates assumed in: Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C QIV '77 328.4 330.6 329.0 326.1 QI '78 332.9 335.6 332.3 329.1 M2 M 2 Growth From QIV at an 8 Per Cent Rate QIV '77 794.4 801.7 796.7 789.7 QI '78 811.3 818.6 810.0 800.9 NOTE: The last three columns assume that growth around the mid-points of the proposed ranges is achieved and are the same numbers as shown in the table on p. 7. The table above facilitates comparison of longer-run paths proposed in the present blue book with the Committee's current longerrun path. The first column of numbers shows the level of M1 and M 2 in the fourth quarter of 1977 implied by the mid-point growth rate of the longer-run path (which takes QIV '76 as the base) and in the first quarter of 1978 on the assumption that the mid-point growth rate is I - 2 extended for one more quarter. The last three columns shown levels in the fourth quarter of 1977 and the first quarter of 1978 implied by the alternatives presented in the present blue book (which take QI '77 as the base). Of the three alternatives presented, alternative B is closest to the current longer-run path. By the first quarter of 1978, the levels of M1 and M 2 under B are only two-tenths of 1 per cent different from those implied by the current path. Terminal levels under alternatives A and C are about 3/4 of a per cent to 1¼ per cent different from those implied by the current path. Appendix II Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QI '77 to QIII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Nonborrowed Res erves 6.6 4. 9 2.0 Total Reserves 6.6 6. 1 5.6 Monetary Base 8.1 8. 0 L 3 7.8 Shown above are 6-month growth rates in various reserve measures consistent with the mid-points of the alternative longer-run paths for the monetary aggregates presented in this blue book. Appendix III Projected Federal Funds Rate Alt. A 1977, QII QIII QIV 1978, QI Alt. B Alt. C 4-3/8 4-7/8 5k 4% 5% 6k 5-3/8 6k 7 5k 6k 7% Appendix IV Implied Velocity Growth Rates V (GNP/M4 1977 1978 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C II 4.4 4.8 5.2 III 5.0 5.2 5.8 IV 6.8 7.2 8.3 I 6.7 7.4 7.0 II 2.2 2.6 3.1 III 2.0 2.6 3.5 IV 4.3 4.8 5.6 I 4.3 4.7 5.0 V2 (GNP/MA 1977 1978 Appendix V Comparisons of Old and Revised Money Stock Growth Rates -M M -2- -1M Old 1976-July Revised M -3- Old Revised Old Revised 7.1 7.1 12.0 12.0 12.8 12.8 August 5.1 5.9 9.0 8.8 12.5 12.3 September 1.2 1.6 10.1 10.0 13.3 13.3 13.7 14.1 15.7 15.7 16.8 16.7 November 0.0 0.4 10.1 9.9 12.3 12.2 December 8.1 8.5 12.6 12.5 13.0 13.0 5.4 5.8 9.2 9.3 11.3 11.2 February 0.8 0.8 6.8 6.6 8.6 8.8 March 5.4 6.1 8.2 8.0 8.7 8.9 1976--I 4.5 4.5 11.0 11.0 12.4 12.4 II 6.8 6.8 9.1 9.1 10.7 10.7 III 4.5 4.9 10.5 10.4 13.0 12.9 IV 7.3 7.7 13.0 12.8 14.2 14.1 3.8 4.2 8.1 8.0 9.6 2.9 2.9 9.9 9.9 11.5 11.4 II 8.2 8.2 10.5 10.5 11.8 11.8 III 4.2 4.4 9.2 9.1 11.4 11.4 IV 6.3 6.7 12.3 12.2 14.3 14.2 4.4 4.8 9.4 9.4 11.0 11.0 October 1977-January Quarterly: / 1977--1 9.7 Quarterly Average: 1976--I 1977--I 1/ End-month-of-quarter to end-month-of-quarter CHART 1 4/15/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 325 320 315 BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 310 305 720 770 11% growth 760 700 growth 680 740 660 I 1975 1976 750 J I i F M 1977 730 I A M CHART 2 4/15/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 550 RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -37 - TOTAL 1975 1976 1977 35 4/15/77 CHART 3 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS INTEREST RATES Long-term PER CENT PER CENT WEEKLY AVERAGES | F.R. DISCOUNT RATE FUNDS BILLIONS OF 1975 1976 1977 1975 1976 1977 1975 1976 1977 Table 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) APR.1, CLASS MONETARY AGGREGATES II-FOMC ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (Ml) (M2) Period MONTHLY Adjusted Credit Proxy Total U.S. Govt. Deposits Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD'S Total Savings Ot er To Nondeposit Member Sources of U.S. Govt. Funds Deposits, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 313.6 313.8 315.2 (318.6) 745.4 749.5 754.6 (761.80 540.8 539.5 542.7 (545.5) 10.0 11.7 11.2 1 9.7) 494.8 499.0 501.6 (505.3) 431.8 435.8 439.4 (443.2) 205.0 207.1 208.8 (210.9) 226.7 228.6 230.6 (232.3) 4.5 7.3 3.8 10.5 13.0 8.1 1.8 11.5 2.9 6.5 15.1 8.9 15.0 17.1 11.2 19.0 28.7 14.7 11.7 7.2 8.1 -40.5 1.3 -7.0 4.2 6.3 4.4 9.2 12.3 9.4 3.9 8.2 5.3 7.3 11.8 11.7 13.0 16.8 13.3 13.4 26.9 Z0.5 12.5 8.2 6.8 -24.6 -18.9 1. ( 5.4 0.8 5.4 12.9) ( 9.2 6.6 8.2 11.4) ( 4.5 -2.9 7.1 6.2) ( 10.0 10.2 6.3 8.9) ( 12.4 11.1 9.9 10.4) 1 21.5 12.3 9.9 12.1) ( 3.7 10.1 10.5 8.8) I -3.6 3.3 -20.9 0.0) ( 9.2) ( 9.8) ( 6.7) ( 7.6) ( 10.2) ( 11.0) I 9.7) I -10.4) 9 10 11 LEVELS-sBIL 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. ( .3.1 63.3 62. 62.2) 6.3 I( 7.5 7.7 .7) 4 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.t) X ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1976-3RD QTR. 4TH OTR. 1977-1ST OTR. MONTHLY 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAR.-APR. WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1977-MAR. 2 9 16 23 30 313.2 314.7 316.4 315.2 314.1 750.1 752.9 755.5 755.2 754.7 540.3 541.0 543.6 543.6 541.2 11.6 11.5 12.1 11.2 9.7 499.6 500.5 501.1 501.9 503.1 436.9 438.2 439.1 440.0 440.6 207.6 208.5 208.7 208.9 209.2 229.3 Z29.7 230.5 231.2 231.4 62.7 62.4 62.0 618 62.5 7.7 7.7 7.5 8.3 7.4 2.4 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.0 APR. 6 319.1 761.5 546.5 8.6 504.9 442.4 209.7 232.7 62.5 7.4 2.6 NOTE: 1/ DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER bANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC APR. 15, 1977 TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED REQUIRED RESERVES BANK RESERVES Period Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 '1"NTHLY LEV.LS-SMILLIfNS 1977-JAN. PFRCF'T 34,778 34,710 119,102 34,512 20, ,34 12,044 FES. 34,326 1,633 34,397 119,079 34,199 20,416 12,038 1,725 MAR. APR. 34,310 134,689) 34,2C7 (34,638) 119,574 (120,834) 34,102 (34,437) 20,403 12,511) 14I,13 (1llb2) ANNUAL I 1,!77 1,139) GROWTH OUARTFRLY 1976--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST QTR. 0.6 7.6 -1.s 1.3 7.7 -2.4 6.1 8.0 5.2 0.7 6.8 -1.0 3.8 1.6 3.7 -5.8.C 6.9 2.7 4.4 2.7 2.6 4.8 2.6 6.3 7.1 6.8 2.4 4.0 3.1 3.0 3.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 9.5 ( 24.8 -12.7 -O.b t.7) 1 QUARTERLY-AV 197b-3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 1977-1ST OTR. MONTHLY 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR APR. MAR.-APR. ( 10.9 -13.1 -3.0 13.3) ( 5.1) 10.4 -13.3 -4.2 1 15.1) ( 5.5) ( 10.7 -0.2 5.0 12.6) ( 11.3 -10.9 -3.4 11.8) ( 8.8) ( 4.2) 3.0) ( 12.9 1.4 b.5 5.8) 6b.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-MILLIONS NOTE: 1977-MAR. 2 9 16 23 30 34,346 34,048 34,242 34,139 34,762 34,316 34,028 34,218 33,801 34,704 119,244 118,837 119,356 119,524 120,568 34,196 33,775 34,074 34,062 34,443 20,539 20,t3z 20,328 20,369 20,630 12,139 12,120 12,111 12,123 12,129 1,518 1,424 1,635 1,571 1,64 APR. 6 13 34,586 34,280 34,521 34 241 120,299 119,868 34,299 33,995 20,495 20,203 12,149 12,154 1,t55 1,638 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ASSOCIATFD WITH HANGES. IN RFSFRVE RFOQIITRFMMT ... "L" RATTI" STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) _ I Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period Within 1 year 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 10 5 - 10 1 - 5 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 167 129 196 1,070 642 -363 2,067 45 -886 I II II] IV 1,164 1977--Qtr. I 192 997 325 165 18 2 - 107 6/ 41 -- 6 13 20 27 LEVEL Apr. 13 4/ 5/ 10 592 400 1,665 824 469 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 1,680 -- - --- -- Total 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 S - - (in billions) 39.5 10.2 Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 1,022 3,371 1,398 436 1,256 1,654 392 304 --- --- -- --- -4,771 409 -377 403 -1,742 -3,930 5,976 2,908 -125 -6,877 1,931 175 -7,198 6,641 -946 -45 -- Net RP's 61 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 2,738 - 18 -- -- -- -- - -- -- -- -- -- 720 -24 ----5 348 151 81 687 -- -- -- -- -- 681 2,179 --- --- --- -------- ---- ---- 46 37 298 -- -- -- ----- ----- -278 --- 288 -3,071 -3,576 -2,310 9,665 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -6 -4,210 --- --- --- --- ------- --- --- --- --- 9.9 5.4 1.5 3.3 1.2 S-- 2 9 16 23 30 1/ 2/ 3/ 5 - 5 695 687 298 2,222 -691 -368 9 Apr. 1 - Over 10 266 1,029 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. Mar. Total --- Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ 1,052 1,284 1,557 1,294 1976--Oct. Nov. Dec. 1977--Feb. APRIL 15, 1977 II SWithin 1 year (FR) 174 30.8 56.4 .8 6.7 -371 -25 -6 -177 -117 102.7 -9,141 7,954 -1.2 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludeiredemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills (1) Coupon Issues (2) Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds APRIL 15, 1977 Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** Reserves Total (6) (4) Seasonal 8 New York 38 Others (8) (9) 343 34 655 -180 242 24 -8,161 -2,367 -12,744 1976--High Low 8,896 3,668 3,046 175 1977--High Low 7,234 *3,140 3,017 *275 333 137 513 -111 339 20 -8,742 -4,293 -13,975 -9,318 5,910 778 151 223 54 -4,726 - 9,640 Apr. May June 5,570 4,239 4,996 605 591 582 133 199 196 155 210 214 43 114 127 -5,179 -4,402 -4,219 -10,783 July Aug. Sept. 5,743 6,174 7,838 904 1,686 1,509 211 116 172 234 207 205 132 100 63 -4,756 -4,624 -5,703 - 9,399 - 9,691 - 9,716 Oct. Nov. Dec. 6,271 6,876 8,005 1,832 2,418 2,443 258 217 167 221 257 274 94 72 53 -6,428 -6,289 -7,168 -10,527 -11,618 -11,449 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. 6,406 4,450 *4,906 2,320 1,605 *972 202 226 162 265 198 7 21 p 68 72 104p -6,421 -5,604 -5,652p -11,504 -11,503 9 6 -10, 1 p 2 9 16 23 3,720 4,371 4,583 5,098 1,694 2,385 1,623 969 139 204 228 333 130 256 164 229 86 75 129 36 -4,293 -5,680 -6,288 -5,589 - 9,905 Mar. 2 9 16 23 30 4,232 5,174 5,342 *4,814 *3,140 913 354 303 *275 *453 155 137 163 180 175 150 273 168 77 319p 30 20 24 338 58p -4,716 -6,353 -6,912 -5,079 -4,933 -10,869 -11,550 -11,527 -11,539 -9,318 Apr. 6 13 20 27 *6,208 *6,670 *761 *453 232 86p 287p 292p 65p 39p -5,766p -7,563p -11,479p 97 -13, 5p 1976--Mar. 1977--Feb. - 6,908 - 8,151 - 9,158 -12,294 -11,482 -11,090 NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures, STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC APRIL 15, 1977 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) Long-term Short-term Treasury Bills Federal Funds (1) 90-Day (2) 1-Year (3) Commercial Paper 90-119 Day (4) 1976--High Low 5.58 4.63 5.53 4.27 6.32 4.62 1977--High Low 4.77 4.47 4.74 4.41 1976--Mar. 4.84 5.00 CD's New Issue-NYC U.S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 7-yr 20-yr 3-yr (7) (8) (9) Corp.-Aaa Utility Recently New Offered Issue (10) (11) Municipal Bond Buyer (12) Home Mortgages Primary Secondary Market FNMA Auc. GNMA Sec. Cony. (13) (14) (15) 60-Day (5) 90-Day (6) 5.90 4.63 5.63 4.40 5.75 4.50 7.52 5.65 7.89 6.33 8.17 7.23 8.95 7.93 8.94 7.84 7.13 5.83 9.10 8.70 9.20 8.39 8.45 7.57 5.25 4.67 4.75 4.63 4.70 4.48 4.80 4.63 6.49 5.83 7.23 6.59 7.76 7.26 8.30 7.90 8.32 7.95 5.93 5.78 8.73 8.65 8.72 8.46 8.08 7.56 5.82 5.25 5.05 5.20 7.13 7.65 7.97 8.62 8.61 6.92 8.76 9.05 8.30 4.81 5.25 5.55 4.94 5.38 5.68 6.84 7.27 7.32 7.44 7.77 7.76 7.86 8.13 8.03 8.48 8.82 8.72 8.52 8.77 8.73 6.60 6.87 6.87 8.73 8.77 8.85 8.89 9.09 9.13 8.10 8.33 8.35 Apr. May June 4.82 5.29 5.48 5.08 5.44 5.83 July Aug. Sept. 5.31 5.29 5.25 5.54 4.35 5.33 5.30 5.23 5.11 5.42 5.31 5.24 7.12 6.86 6.66 7.70 7.58 7.41 8.00 7.91 7.78 8.63 8.52 8.29 8.63 8.50 8.33 6.79 6.61 6.51 8.93 9.00 8.98 9.05 8.99 8.88 8.37 8.30 8.10 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.03 4.95 4.65 4.92 4.75 4.35 5.10 4.98 4.66 4.90 4.84 4.48 5.04 4.94 4.50 6.24 6.09 5.68 7.16 6.86 6.37 7.70 7.64 7.30 8.25 8.17 7.94 8.24 8.18 7.93 6.30 6.29 5.94 8.93 8.81 8.79 8.75 8.66 8.45 7.98 7.93 7.59 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.61 4.68 4.69 4.62 4.67 4.60 4.72 4.76 4.75 4.61 4.58 4.58 4.68 4.70 4.72 6.22 6.44 6.47 8.48 8.55 8.68 7.83 7.98 8.06 4.60 4.66 4.70 4.74 4.74 4.64 4.62 4.67 4.80 4.78 4.75 4.75 4.70 4.61 4.50 4.50 4.80 4.75 4.63 4.63 6.54 6.39 6.35 6.51 8.09 8.19 8.29 8.14 8.72 8.67 8.69 1977--Feb. 8.08 8.22 8.25 8.15 2 9 16 23 30 4.68 4.63 4.62 4.77 4.74 4.70 4.64 4.59 4.57 4.59 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.63 4.63 4.63 4.50 4.50 4.77 4.77 4.75 4.63 4.70 6.49 6.50 6.46 6.44 6.45 6 13 20 27 4.60 4.65 4.56 4.58 4.75 4.75 4.58 4.58 4.63 4.70 6.45 6.27p 7.22 7.10p 7.72 6 7. 6p 7 14 4.65 4.64p 4.58 4.52 6.43 6 .07p 7.21 6.97p 7.72 7.57p Mar. Apr. Daily--Apr. 5.19 5.00 4.64 5.14 5.10 4.75 4.75 - - - 8.18 8.28 8.68 8.70 8.65 8.65 8.12 8.17 8.26 - 8.65 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.27 8.30 8.23 8.22 8.26 8.32 8.27 8.28 8.28 8.26 8.23p 8.25 8.16p 8.52 8.58 8.66 8.70 7.95 7.92 7.96 7.99 8.06 8.08 8.08 8.02 8.06 5.79 8.75 8.72 8.01 5.70 n.a. -- 7.99 NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for shortterm forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES 15, 1977 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES V APR. Total Period Total 1 Nonborrowed Monetary Base Adj. Credit proxy Loans and Investments M2 MI M3 3 4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 2 I I M4 MB M6 M7 9 10 11 1 REVISED SERIES I ANNUALLY: 7.2 -0.5 1.3 1Y74 1975 1976 9.4 1.3 1.6 9.3 5.8 6.9 10.2 3.9 4.9 9.2 4.4 7.3 4.1 7.2 8.5 11.4 6.7 11.3 13.1 10.b 6.4 7.5 9.0 9.7 10.6 b.8 10.8 10.0 9.0 10.6 10.4 6.1 0.9 5.8 3.5 4.5 2.8 6.9 10.2 5.7 9.1 10.8 10.6 ?.7 5.7 6.3 10.2 11.8 11.7 13.7 5.9 8. 8.9 11.8 8.9 Iu.'f 9.2 11.0 8.5 5.5 7.9 b.8 4.9 7.7 9.1 10.4 12.8 10b7 12.9 14.1 6.6 5.7 11.9 9.0 9.9 13.5 9.0 9.Z 11.9 9.7 9.4 12.2 9.7 6.' 8.9 4.7 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1975 0.3 197b 197o -1.4 WND QTK. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR. 1976 1976 1976 3.1 0.6 2.5 1.3 7.6 7.7 IST QTR. 1977 1ST HALF MND HALF -1.4 4.1 6.5 7.1 .. 7 QUARTtRLY: -1.8 -2.4 8.2 6.1 8.0 4.0 1.8 11.5 5.2 2.9 11.'r 4.2 B.0 b.3 OUARTERLY-AV 2ND QTR. KD QTR. 4TH Q,. 1976 1976 1976 0.6 2.7 4.4 0.4 2.6 4.8 8.2 6.3 7.1 2.2 3.9 8.2 8.7 5.8 a.o 8.2 4.4 6.8 10.5 9.1 12.2 11.8 11.4 14.2 6.4 6.0 9.6 9.1 9.3 12.5 9.1 9.2 11.1 9.5 9.7 11.4 I&T QTR. 1977 2.7 2.6 6.8 5.3 8.9 4.d 9.4 11.0 8.7 10.5 9.0 9.3 7.2 11.2 8.0 5.4 6.5 6.6 5.1 7.1 9.1 7.7 1.2 2.1 -3.7 13.5 3.2 0.7 1.6 11.9 11.3 10.8 8.5 11.1 6.3 7.9 2.2 8.4 5.8 12.1 9.6 1.7 5.3 14.9 6.8 -1.2 7.1 5.9 7.8 14.1 8.9 4.3 12.0 1.6 14.1 0.4 8.5 10.0 15.7 9.9 12.5 10.1 14.1 10.5 7.1 12.8 12.3 13.3 16.7 12.2 7.8 10.9 7.4 8.6 11.7 7.0 8.6 14.5 10.5 10.4 7.6 11.2 8.2 9.3 12.1 7.2 8.7 14.6 11.0 10.8 10.7 -0.2 5.0 4.5 5.8 0.8 6.1 9.3 6.6 8.0 MONTHLY 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. P NOTES: 1/ P - -1.7 0.9 4.1 4.1 2.0 5.9 -6.2 6.0 11.8 4.9 10.9 -13.1 -0.7 1.3 1.6 3.7 1.8 7.0 -4.8 4.9 12.6 5.6 10.4 -13.3 -4.2 -2.9 8.9 1-t.5 10.7 8.8 13.0 3.8 9.4 3.9 6.4 8.9 2.0 6.2 13.2 9.1 13.0 11.2 8.8 8.9 8.1 6.4 5.9 7.4 11.1 7.3 8.3 10.8 7.9 10.8 15.1 11.5! 13.4 10.4 8.4 7.5 -3.0 7.1 I. L ____i I ___ ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, PRELIMINARY 8.9 8.2 7.5 8.5 8.1 7.4 & SOLD & TO BANK- APR. APPENDIX TABLE 1-B 15, 1977 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK CREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES 1 Period Total 1 Nonbored borrowed Monetary Monetary Base Adj Credt proxy 2 3 4 Total Loans and Investments 5 MONEY STOCK MEASURES M M M3 M4 M M M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 REVISED SERIES ANNUALLY: 34,174 34,015 34,465 33,447 33,885 34,412 104,380 110,394 118,051 494.6 513.8 538.8 695.2 725.5 778.7 283.1 294.8 312.8 612.4 664.3 739.3 981.5 1092.6 1236.0 701.4 746.5 802.6 1070.5 1174.7 1299.3 1181.2 1308.4 1439.7 1221.6 1351.0 1491.0 1976--MAR. 33.519 33 465 111,707 516.3 737.7 298.1 682.6 1126.5 755.9 1199.8 1336.6 1380.1 APR. MAY JUNE 33,545 33,a61 33,776 33,501 33,546 3a,650 112,747 113,498 114,009 517.2 515.6 521.4 744.5 748.4 753. 301.8 303.! 303.2 690.6 695.7 696.2 1139.7 1149.7 1156.5 761.8 764.3 768.4 1210.9 1218.3 1226.7 1348.7 1357.0 1366.7 1393.0 1402.5 1413.4 JULY AUG. SEPT. 33,833 33,998 33,823 33,701 33,897 33,761 114,625 115,252 1150739 522.8 523.1 523.8 754.7 760.0 763.7 305.0 306.5 306.9 705.2 710.4 716.3 1168.8 1180.8 1193.9 774.1 775.4 779.4 1237.7 1245.8 1257.0 1380.0 1388.1 1398.0 1427.7 1436.3 1446.7 OCT. NOV. DEC. 33,992 34,325 34,465 33,898 34.253 34,412 116,424 117,303 118,051 529.0 534.0 538.8 771.4 777.6 778.7 310.5 310.6 312.8 725.7 731.7 739.3 1210.5 1222.8 1136.0 788.0 794.0 802.6 1272.8 1285.0 1299.3 1414.9 1427.3 1439.7 1464.3 1477.7 1491.0 1977--JAN. FbB. MAR. P 34,778 34,397 34,310 34,710 34,326 34,207 119,101 119,079 119,573 540.8 539.5 542.7 784.5 794.0 801.1 314.3 314.5 316.1 745.0 749.1 754.1 1247.5 1256.6 1265.9 808.0 812.3 816.3 1310.6 1319.8 1328.1 1449.9 1459.7 1468.7 1502.1 1512.4 1521.8 9 16 23 34,545 34,437 34,200 34,470 34,308 34,164 118,879 119,010 119,234 538.8 540.9 538.9 314.4 315.5 314.5 748.2 750.1 749.7 811.7 813.7 812.8 MAR. 2 9 16 23 30P 34,346 34,048 34,242 34,139 34,762 34,316 34,028 34,218 33,801 34,704 119,244 118,837 119,355 119,524 120,567 540.3 541.0 543.6 543.6 541.2 313.9 315.6 317.2 316.0 314.9 749.6 752.4 755.0 754.7 754.1 812.2 814.8 817.0 816.5 816.6 APR. 6P 34,586 34,521 120,299 546.5 319.9 760.9 823.4 1974 1975 1976 MONTHLY WEEKLY 1977-FEB. NOTESS ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLO TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGE. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, 1OTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED LN DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESEKVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY APR. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 15, 1977 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Period Currency 1 2 Total 3 ANNUALLY: REVISED 1974 1975 1976 -Savings Bank & Other Than CD's Demand Deposits Mutualr T O l r Total Savings Other 4 5 6 SERIES CD's S&L Credit Union Shares Saa v s s Bonds Short Term U.S.Gov't Securities Sharesl 7 ommercal Paper I/ 8 9 10 11 12 41.3 -7.8 -22.9 5.5 15.7 15.8 12.2 19.6 18.2 4.8 6.3 6.8 9.7 40.1 3.2 17.1 5.4 20.7 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 10.2 8.7 9.4 3.0 2.6 5.0 14.9 8.0 b.4 9.4 12.2 15.4 7.0 17.8 25.5 11.2 8.2 7.7 SEMI-ANNUALLYS 2ND HALF 1975 7.9 1.0 7.7 10.4 16.0 6.1 -3.6 15.2 17.8 6.4 52.0 5.3 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1976 1976 10.3 8.0 4.2 5.8 6.0 10.5 13.8 15.9 23.6 24.5 6.4 6.7 -29.0 -19.7 13.8 16.7 16.4 18.5 6.2 7.2 12.7 -5.9 19.2 20.1 QUARTERLY: 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TM QTR. 1976 1976 1976 9.5 8.8 7.1 5.8 3.7 7.7 6.6 6.2 14.6 11.1 14.5 16.7 13.6 19.0 28.7 8.9 10.8 6.5 -17.4 -40.5 1.3 12.7 16.9 15.9 15.1 17.9 18.2 6.4 8.1 6.2 12.9 -1.7 -10.2 28.4 17.1 22.2 1ST QTR. 1977 8.9 2.0 8.5 10.8 14.7 7.3 -7.0 11.8 15.4 6.7 -5.8 13.2 QUARTERLY-AV 2ND QIR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1976 1976 1976 11.2 7.8 8.1 7.0 3.2 6.2 5.4 7.0 11.5 12.4 12.8 16.3 21.7 13.4 26.9 4.9 12.0 7.3 -30.1 -24.6 -18.9 13.5 14.6 17.2 16.5 15.9 18.5 5.9 7.5 6.8 11.8 10.3 -8.9 19.4 23.7 18.3 1ST OTR. 1977 8.5 3.6 11.3 12.7 20.5 6.1 1.9 13.2 16.7 6.7 -15.4 18.3 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 11.2 14.3 11.0 3.1 9.3 7.7 9.2 9.1 7.5 4.5 3.2 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.9 5.3 -1.1 15.8 -2.1 9.4 2.9 5.8 1.8 12.0 9.5 -0.3 9.2 12.7 14.8 15.9 9.8 14.0 9.9 9.2 15.2 11.4 16.3 17.0 17.3 15.1 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.e 30.0 26.2 28.0 -1.1 6.8 3.4 16.4 18.4 2.7 10.9 6.0 9.7 3.7 -31.8 -36.0 -43.8 28.0 -22.2 -67.9 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2 13.3 13.8 13.0 10.9 13.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 15.3 13.8 17.7 17.4 13.8 13.6 16.8 16.6 19.6 19.3 15.8 18.8 5.3 7.0 5.2 7.0 6.9 8.6 8.5 5.1 6.8 6.7 14.2 12.3 12.2 13.8 34.0 -11.6 -26.7 10.2 -3.4 -37.3 5.5 19.3 32.5 31. 23.1 15.1 12.4 17.2 4 .3 23.8 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. P 10.4 10.3 5.9 4.7 -2.6 6.2 9.8 9.7 5.8 11.8 10.6 9.7 21.5 12.3 9.9 3.2 9.0 9.5 -3.8 3.8 -20.9 13.9 11.4 9.8 15.4 15.2 15.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 -26.3 5.4 3.6 18.7 11.5 9.1 MONTHLY: 1/ P - GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF APR. 15, 1977 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Currec Currency Peri Demand Deposits Total Other Than CD's _Total 1 2 3 4 ISavings 5 CDs Credit Union Sings Shares Bonds 7 8 Short Term U.S. Com mercial Non Deposit Total Total Gov't Gov't Paper Funds Demand 1_posit Sec 1 1/ SharesI Other 6 Mutual Savings Bank & S&L 9 10 11 12 13 14 REVISED SERIES ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 67.8 73.7 80.6 215.3 221.0 232.1 418.3 451.7 489.8 329.3 369.6 426.5 136.2 160.5 201.4 193.1 209.0 225.1 89.0 82.1 63.3 341.5 395.2 457.8 27.6 33.0 39.0 63.3 67. 3 71.9 47.4 66.4 68.5 40.4 42.6 51.4 6.0 8.3 11.2 75.7 222.4 457.8 384.4 173.5 211.0 73.4 409.5 34.4 68.3 68.4 43.6 10.2 APR. MAY JUNE 76.6 77.3 77.5 225.2 226.2 225.6 460.0 388.9 392.1 395.1 176.7 179.4 179.4 212.2 212.8 215.7 71.2 68.6 70.2 414.2 418.7 422.5 34.9 35.3 35.7 68.7 69.0 69.1 69.8 69.4 70.6 44.3 45.5 46.7 7.6 7.9 9.8 JULY AUG. SEPT. 78.1 226.9 227.9 227.7 469.0 468.9 400.1 403.9 409.4 181.1 184.4 187.9 219.0 219.5 221.5 68.9 427.4 78.6 79.2 65.0 433.8 440.3 36.2 36.7 37.3 69.8 70.3 70.8 72.6 71.9 70.3 47.6 48.2 63.1 10.1 12.6 12.0 OCT. NOV. DEC. 79.11 80.3 80.6 ,30.7 230.3 232.1 477.5 415.2 421.2 426.5 192.6 196.8 201.4 222.6 224.4 225.1 62.3 62.2 63.3 446.9 452.6 457.8 37.9 70.9 70.7 68.5 49.4 50.4 51.4 13.2 39.0 71.1 71.5 71.9 81.3 82.0 82.4 233.0 232.5 233.7 493.8 205.0 207.1 208.8 225.7 227.4 229.2 6.11 63.3 62.2 463.1 467.5 471.3 39.5 40.0 40.5 72.3 72.7 73.1 67.0 500.2 430.7 434.5 438.0 52.2 52.7 53.1 10.0 11.7 11.2 9 16 23 81.8 61.8 82.3 232.6 233.7 232.2 497.3 498.2 433.8 434.6 498.4 435.2 206.7 207.0 207.4 227.1 227.5 227.8 63.5 63.7 63.1 12.3 11.7 11.7 2 9 16 231.9 233.3 234.9 233.5 232.0 498.3 499.2 499.7 500.5 501.7 435.6 436.9 437.8 438.7 439.2 207.6 208.5 208.7 209.2 228.0 228.4 229.1 229.8 230.0 62.7 62.4 30P 82.1 82.3 82.3 82.5 82.9 61.8 62.5 11.6 11.5 12.1 11.2 9.7 6P 83.1 236.8 503.5 441.0 209.5 231.5 62.5 8.6 MONTHLYs 1976--MAR. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR.P 460.7 465.3 472.5 483.4 489.8 497.8 38.4 67.3 67.5 48.7 13.0 11.2 MEEKLY: 1977-FEB. MAR. 23 APR. 1/ 2/ P - 208.9 62.0 ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT IMONTH AND END OF INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 

Federal Reserve (1977, April 18). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770419

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19770419,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Apr},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770419},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}