Bluebook

Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC February 11, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System February 11, STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 and M 2 appear to be expanding at annual rates of around 4-1/2 and 8-1/2 per cent, respectively, over the January-February period, in both cases just below the mid-point of the Committee's operating range. The recent reduction in offering rates at some banks and thrift institutions on time and savings accounts, in combination with the rise in market interest rates, seems to have had the expected moderating impact on growth of the time and savings deposit component of the broader monetary aggregates. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over January-February period 1/ (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates 3 to 7 7 to 11 Memorandum: Federal funds rate (Per cent per annum) 1/ Avg. for statement week ending Jan. 19 4.65 26 4.72 Feb. 2 4.60 4.66 9 These figures do not incorporate the quarterly benchmark and seasonal factor revisions of monetary aggregates that will be published on February 17. The benchmark revisions (based on the June call report) are quite small. The level of M1 for each month of last year was revised up no more than $300 million. The monthly levels of M2 were adjusted up by even smaller amounts. The effects of changes in seasonal factors on M1 and M 2 levels were also generally quite small. The net impact of the revisions raised growth rates of M1 and M2 for 1976 by less than .1 percentage point. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of Tables 1 and 2, following the charts) are based on the new series. The new and old series are compared in Appendix IV. -2(2) Immediately following the January FOMC meeting the Desk aimed for a Federal funds rate in the 4-5/8--4-3/4 per cent area in accordance with the Committee's instructions. This objective has been maintained throughout the intermeeting period, as incoming data have suggested M1 and M 2 growth well within their respective two-month ranges. With negotiable CD's declining since year end and demand deposits falling in late January, nonborrowed reserves are expected to decrease in February after increasing rapidly in January.1 / (3) Since the mid-January FOMC meeting, interest rates on Treasury securities, especially coupon issues, have fluctuated within a relatively wide range. Interest rates rose in late January following announce- ment of the terms of the Treasury's mid-February financing package and likely cash needs over the balance of the first quarter. Subsequently, with the funds rate remaining near 4-5/8 per cent and growth in the monetary aggregates slowing, interest rates declined. Interest rates generally showed little change, on balance, over the intermeeting period, but most interest rates remained significantly above their December lows. (4) Credit demands have generally remained strong recently. Public offerings of corporate bonds were substantial in January despite some postponements and cancellations in response to higher interest rates. State and local governments have issued new securities at a rapid pace so 1/ The recent behavior of nonborrowed reserves is compared with estimates of 6-month growth rates in nonborrowed reserves, and related measures, believed consistent with longer-run growth ranges for the aggregates in appendix I. -3far in 1977. On the other hand, the pace of business borrowing in short-term markets appears to have slackened somewhat over the past two months. (5) The Federal government has borrowed appreciable amounts of new cash since the January FOMC meeting, raising $2.8 billion through a late January sale of 2-year notes and $3.7 billion in connection with its mid-February refunding. In the refunding the Treasury auctioned $3.0 billion of 3-year notes at an average rate of 6.62 per cent, $2.0 billion of 7-year notes at an average rate of 7.25 per cent, and $750 million of 30-year bonds at an average rate of 7.63 per cent. Most recently, the two notes have been trading at prices above their auction averages, and dealers have made reasonable progress in distributing their awards of these issues. The bond has been trading slightly below its average issuing price; dealers still hold most of the relatively sizable awards they received of this issue. Past 1975 & 1976 Six Months Past Three Mon t h. Jan. '77 over July '76 Jan. '77 over Oct. '76 Past Mnnth Jan. '77 over Dec. '76 Nonborrowed reserves 1.5 5.6 9.7 8.5 Total reserves 0.5 5.3 9.4 9.0 Monetary Base 6.4 7.7 9.3 10.0 5.0 5.7 4.6 5.8 M 2 (Ml plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 10.0 11.4 10.8 9.4 M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 12.3 13.5 12.1 10.7 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 7.0 8.9 10.4 8.4 M 5 (M3 plus CD's) 10.2 11.8 11.7 10.0 Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 4.4 6.8 8.8 4.2 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 5.4 7.9 6.9 9.0 - 1.1 - 1.0 0.3 - 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ Bank Credit Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U. S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks,commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (6) Summarized below are alternative short-run specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. (More detailed short-run and longer-run data are shown in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b). Each of the alternatives is believed to be consistent with growth ranges for the monetary aggregates over the QIV '76-QIV '77 period adopted by the Committee at its previous meeting. The differing patterns of Federal funds rates and velocity implied by the three alternatives-given the projected growth in nominal GNP--are shown in appendices II and III, respectively. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 2½-6½ Ranges for February-March M1 3½-7½ 3-7 M2 7½-11½ 7-11 6½-10½ 3¾-4½ 4¼-5 4¾-5½ Federal funds rate (intermeeting period) (7) Growth in M1 over the February-March period is expected to be in a 3-7 per cent annual rate range, assuming a Federal funds rate centered in a 4¼-5 per cent range, as in alternative B. The rate of expansion that is anticipated for M 1 reflects in part the retardation in economic activity caused by the recent cold snap and associated fuel shortage. (8) M 2 expansion under alternative B may be in a 7-11 per cent annual rate range over the February-March period. Time and savings deposits other than large CD's are likely to continue rising at close -5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 1977 1976 M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C January February March 313.7 314.9 316.6 313.7 314.9 316.4 313.7 314.9 316.1 745.5 750.7 757.1 745.5 750.7 756.5 745.5 750.7 755.9 1247.9 1258.3 1270.2 1247.9 1269.3 1247.9 1258.3 1268.5 QIII 306.0 310.8 306.0 310.8 306.0 310.8 710.7 732.5 710.7 732.5 710.7 732.5 1181.7 1223.9 1181.7 1223.9 1181.7 1223.9 315.1 321,8 325.1 327.9 315.0 321.3 324.7 327.9 314.9 320.8 324.2 327.9 751.1 771.9 786.4 798.0 750.9 770.3 784.9 797.8 750.7 768.7 782.9 798.0 1258.8 1295.6 1324.0 1356.1 1258.5 1293.1 1321.6 1345.8 1258.2 1290.3 1318.0 1346.9 4.6 4.6 8.4 10.2 8.4 9.3 8.4 8.3 10.0 11.3 10.0 10.5 10.0 9.7 12.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 QIV 1977 M2 QI QII QIII QIV 1258.3 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 February March 4.6 6.5 Quarterly Average: 1976 QIV 6.3 6.3 6.3 12.3 12.3 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 5.5 8.5 4.1 3.4 5.4 8.0 4.2 3.9 5.3 7.5 4.2 4.6 10.2 11.1 7.5 5.9 10.0 10.3 7.6 6.6 9.9 9.6 7.4 7.7 11.4 11.7 8.8 6.7 11.3 11.0 8.8 7.3 11.2 10.2 8.6 8.8 Semi-annual QIV '76-QII '77 QII '77-QIV '77 7.1 3.8 6.8 4.1 6.4 4.4 10.8 6.8 10.3 7.1 9.9 7.6 11.7 7.8 11.3 8.2 10.9 8.8 Annual QIV '76-QIV '77 5.5 5.5 5.5 8.9 8.9 8.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 FOMC longer-run range QIII '76-QIV '77 4k-6 7-10 8k-11% -5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C January February March 808.6 813.9 819.8 808.6 813.9 819.3 808.6 813.9 818.8 1311.0 1321.5 1332.8 1311.0 1321.5 1332.1 1311.0 1321.5 1331.4 540.7 542.1 546.5 540.7 542.1 546.3 540.7 542.1 546.0 1976 QIII QIV 776.4 795.2 776.4 795.2 776.4 795.2 1247.4 1286.5 1247.4 1286.5 1247.4 1286.5 523.2 533.9 523.2 533.9 523.2 533.9 1977 QI QII 814.1 833.7 848.7 813.9 832.6 847.7 862.7 813.8 831.5 846.4 862.4 1321.8 1357.4 1386.2 1411.0 1321.5 1355.5 1384.3 1410.8 1321.3 1353.1 1381.4 1411.3 543.1 557.0 568.9 580.0 543.0 556.4 568.4 579.9 542.9 9.6 9.6 1977 QIII QIV 862.8 555.8 567.7 579.6 Growth Rates Monthly: 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.2 9.6 10.3 9.7 9.7 12.5 12.5 12.5 9.4 9,2 7.3 7.1 9.4 8.7 7.2 7.6 11.0 10.8 8.5 7.2 10.9 10.3 QIV 9.5 9.6 7.2 6.6 Semi-annual QIV '76-QII '77 QII '77-QIV '77 9.7 7.0 9.4 7.2 9.1 7.4 11.0 7.9 10.7 8.2 Annual QIV '76-QIV '77 8.5 8.5 8.5 1977 February March 7.9 8.7 9.6 9.0 3.1 9.3 3.1 8.6 8.2 8.2 8.2 10.8 9.6 8.4 8.7 6.9 10.2 8.5 7.8 6.8 9.9 8.6 8.1 6.7 9.5 8.6 8.4 10.4 8.6 8.7 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 Quarterly Averages: 1976 QIV 1977 QI QII QIII 9.7 8.5 7.7 9.7 to their reduced January pace, as banks remain less aggressive in offering time deposits over the next few weeks in light of moderate bank credit demands from business and other customers. Also, the rise in yield on intermediate-term Treasury obligations since the beginning of the year has made such securities somewhat more attractive to savers as compared with time certificates of deposit. (9) M1 and M 2 under alternative B may be expected to rise at annual rates of about 5½ and 10 per cent, respectively, in the first quarter. Growth in these aggregates, especially M1, is likely to strengthen in the second quarter, as a result of the temporary impact of tax rebates. M1 growth in the second quarter would be further augmented by increased money demands associated with the rapid expansion in nominal GNP projected for the spring as the fuel shortage subsides. (10) A considerably slower growth in monetary aggregates would be required in the second half of 1977 than in the first half if growth over the year is to be around the mid-points of the longer-run ranges adopted at the previous Committee meeting. Growth in the aggregates would probably slow to some extent as a natural reaction to the sharp expansion in money that is likely to accompany rebate payments. To achieve the amount of slowing needed, however, it is very likely that short-term interest rates will have to rise as the year progresses, given the projected expansion in nominal GNP over the year. Under alternative B, the staff would expect the Federal funds rate to begin rising in the spring and reach around 6½ per cent by the fourth quarter of this year. (11) Interest rates are expected to show little net change over the next few weeks, though, given the specifications of alternative B. The Treasury will probably raise $7-9 billion of new money between now and the next meeting through routine offerings of 2- and 4-year notes, additions to the weekly and monthly bill auctions, and cash management bills. Much of this need has probably already been discounted by the market, but rates on Treasury securities could rise a little in the process of distributing the issues. The municipal bond volume is expected to remain at around the advanced January pace over the weeks immediately ahead, but new issues of publicly offered corporate bonds seem to be moderating in reaction to the recent rise in bond yields. (12) Bank credit is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace in the first quarter. Business loan expansion may be only a little above the reduced December-January average rate, but banks can be expected to continue to be active lenders in the consumer and mortgage loan markets. The higher level of yields on intermediate-term Treasury issues since the beginning of the year may encourage some pick-up in bank buying of such securities. Banks are expected to obtain sufficient funds to finance such credit expansion from demand deposits and time deposits other than money market CD's. The outstanding volume of CD's will probably continue to decline modestly. (13) Alternative C contemplates a tightening of the money market over the next few weeks, with the funds rate rising to the midpoint of a 4¾-5½ per cent range. Such a rise in the funds rate in the weeks immediately ahead has probably not been discounted by the market, and thus a fairly substantial upward adjustment in interest rates could be expected to ensue. The 3-month bill rate would probably rise to levels somewhat above 5 per cent. Yields on intermediate- and longer-term issues would also increase, though probably by less than the rise in short rates, given increases that have already occurred in longer-term interest rates. (14) The tightening of the money market and slower near-term growth in nonborrowed reserves under alternative C would also tend to hold down expansion of the monetary aggregates over the February-March period as compared with alternative B. It would also be likely to lead to slower growth in the aggregates over the first half of 1977, assuming that the funds rate were permitted to rise somewhat further in the spring. However, alternative C would require a more rapid growth in the aggregates than alternative B in the second half of 1977 to attain the longer-run, QIV '76-QIV '77 ranges for the aggregates adopted by the FOMC. Thus, monetary policy would have to be more accommodative in the latter part of 1977, and the Federal funds rate would not be likely to rise as high as under alternative B. We estimate that the rate would, as a result, peak at about 6 per cent in the summer of this year. (15) The near-term easing of the money market encompassed by alternative A would, of course, lead to declines in interest rates over the next few weeks and higher growth rates in the monetary aggregates. Most market participants would probably view the drop in the funds rate as temporary, and this would work to limit interest rate declines. In bond markets, for example, corporations would be likely to accelerate offerings of new issues. -9(16) With monetary growth rates more rapid over the next few months than under the alternatives discussed above, alternative A would imply more restraint later in the year if growth in the aggregates is to be constrained within current longer-run ranges. A funds rate of around 6¾ per cent is expected by the end of 1977 under this alternative. -10Proposed directive (17) Given below is a proposed operational paragraph for the directive if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longerterm targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider those targets. "Monetary Aggregates" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. (18) Should the Committee desire to place main emphasis on bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought. Three alternative "money market" direc- tives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth monetary aggregates]over the period -11IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growthin monetary over aggregates] the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates]over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Appendix I Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QIV '76 to QII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alt. A Alt. BB Alt. C Nonborrowed Rese rves 6.9 6.2 5.0 Total Reserves 7.6 7.4 7.2 Monetary Base 8.0 7.9 7.8 Growth in both nonborrowed and total reserves from the fourth quarter of 1976 to February of this year is estimated at about a 3 per cent annual rate, below the longer-run growth rates for reserve aggregates shown in the table above. The rate of increase in reserves is expected to accelerate in the spring, however, when required reserves would expand considerably because of a transitory rise in the public's holdings of demand deposits resulting from the proposed tax rebates. Appendix II Projected Federal Funds Rate, 1977 Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B QI 4 4- 5 QII 5k 5k 5% QIII 6 6 6 QIv 6% 6 6 Appendix III Implied Velocity Growth Rates V1 (GNP/M ) 1977 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C I 3.3 3.5 3.6 II 4.8 5.3 5.8 III 7.2 7.1 7.1 IV 8.3 7.9 7.2 I -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 II 2.2 3.0 3.7 III 3.8 3.8 4.0 IV 6.0 5.1 4.1 V! (GNP/M) 1977 APPENDIX IV Comparison of Old and Revised Money Stock Growth Rates M1 Old M3 M2 Revised Old Revised Old Revised 1976--January- 1.2 2.0 10.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 February 6.1 6.1 14.1 14.1 14.4 14.6 March 6.1 5.3 8.3 7.8 10.5 10.0 April 14.9 14.1 14.4 14.2 10.5 14.9 14.4 6.8 6.8 8.5 8.9 10.5 June -1.2 -1.2 4.8 4.3 7.7 July 6.7 7.1 August 5.9 5.1 September -0.4 1.2 October 13.7 November 0.0 December May 7.1 12.0 13.0 12.8 9.2 9.0 12.7 12.5 9.5 10.1 13.2 13.3 15.7 15.7 16.5 16.8 0.0 10.3 10.1 11.6 12.3 8.1 8.1 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 4.6 5.8 8.8 10.5 10.7 4.5 4.5 11.0 11.0 12.3 12.4 II 6.8 6.8 9.1 11.0 10.7 III 4.1 4.5 10.3 10.5 13.1 13.0 IV 7.3 7.3 13.0 13.0 13.8 14.2 2.7 2.9 9.9 11.2 11.5 II 8.4 8.2 10.5 12.0 11.8 III 4.1 4.2 9.2 11.6 11.4 IV 6.0 6.3 12.3 14.0 14.3 1977--January 13.7 11.9 9.4 1/ Quarterly:1976--I 9.3 Quarterly Average: 1976--I 1/ 9.7 10.8 9.2 12.2 End-month-of-quarter to end-month-of-quarter 2/11/77 CHART I MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 1975 1976 -I 1977 320 r-- 0 N 1976 D J F 1977 CHART 2 2/11/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY 1 550 BILLIOPIS OF DOLLARS 530 510 I _______________ I I I I I RVES I I I I I I I i 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -1 37 36 35 34 0 1975 1976 1977 Total and ronborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios CHART 3 2/11/77 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT - INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT 9 INTEREST RATES Long-term PER CENT 7 -10 9 8 7 6 5 1975 1975 1976 1977 1975 1976 1977 1975 I I I I1976I I I I I 1976 I 1977I 1977 Table 1CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MONETARY AGGREGATES FEB. CLASS 1977II-FOMC 11, ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Period MONTHLY Broad (M2) Adjusted Credit Proxy Total U.S. Govt. 1 2 3 4 732.0 739.6 745.0 (750.0) 534.4 539.2 541.0 (541.9) Deposits Total Time and Saving Deposits Other Than C'S Other Savins Total CD'S 5 7 8 9 196.8 201.4 204.9 (207.01 225.4 226.2 227.0 (228.8) 62.1 63.8 63.7 4 63.2) Nondeposit Member Sources of U.SBavt Deposits Funds 10 11 9.1 9.2 8.3 7.8) 4.5 3.2 2.6 2.3) LEVELS-SBIL 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. t Narrow (M1) 309.8 311.9 313.1 (314.2) ( 13.5 10.1 10.2 11.9) 484.2 491.5 495.6 (499.01 422.2 427.7 431.9 (435.8) I 4 ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 6.8 4.1 7.3 9.3 10.3 13.0 4.9 0.9 12.0 7.3 5.7 16.1 11.3 15.0 17.2 13.6 19.0 28.7 9.5 11.7 7.2 -14.2 -46.5 9.0 8.4 4.1 6.0 10.8 9.2 12.2 2.4 3.8 8.3 5.3 7.1 12.1 12.5 13.2 16.8 . 21.7 13.4 26.9 5.1 12.7 8.2 -30.6 -26.2 -17.7 ( 0.0 8.1 4.6 4.2) ( 10.3 12.5 8.8 8.1) ( 13.2 10.8 4.0 2.0) 15.6 18.1 10.0 8.2) ( 17.9 15.6 11.8 10.8) ( 4.4) i 8.4) 1 3.0) 9.2) ( 11.4) QUARTER LY-AV 1976-2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. JAN.-FEB. MEEKLY I I 1 16.7) I 10.2 4.3 4.2 9.5) ( 1.9 32.9 -1.9 -9.4) ( 6.9) ( -5.6) LEVELS-SBIL 1977-JAN. 5 12 19 26 FEB. 2 NOTE& I/ P - I 26.2 28.0 20.9 12.3) P 315.0 314.9 313.5 311.5 745.4 746.5 745.6 744.5 543.6 542.1 541.1 540.4 10.2 10.6 10.2 10.1 495.6 495.7 495.4 496.1 430.4 431.6 432.1 433.0 203.1 204.7 205.0 205.8 227.4 227.0 227.2 227.3 65.2 64.1 63.3 63.1 9.0 8.0 8.3 8.5 1.9 3.5 3.3 2.8 311.7 744.8 539.7 9.9 496.1 433.1 205.7 227.3 63.0 7.8 1.7 DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL PRELIMINARY RESERVE BANKS. CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC FEB. 11, 1977 TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Ee~setflles REQUIRED RESERVES _ Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 11,749 11,925 12,068 (12.072) 2,013 2,067 1,810 ( 1,716) Ii 1 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. 34,355 34,507 34,767 134,528) 34,283 34,454 34,698 (34,469) 34,097 34,233 34,498 (34,299) 117,361 118,097 119,082 1119,221) 20,336 20,242 20,619 (20,511) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 3.9 0.2 7.8 3.0 1.0 7.9 8.8 5.4 0.7 3.0 4.3 13.6 5.3 9.0 -8.2) 6.0 4.0 1.8 -1.0 0.3 4.0 0.4 7.0 0.4 3.0 4.6 8.5 6.0 7.2 1.1 2.7 3.9 4.2 3.6 2.9 -4.4 14.4 6.0 8.5 -7.9) 1 10.2 7.5 10.0 1.43 12.3 4.8 9.3 -6.9) 1 12.2 -5.5 22.4 -6.3) I 5.7) 1.2) ( -6.4 9.3 QUARTERLY-AV 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. -0.8 -0.9 MONTHLY 1976--NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. 1 JAN .- FEB. 1 0.41 ( ( 0.3) ( 8.0) ( 5.4 18.0 14.4 0.4) I 7.4) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1977-JAN. FEB. NOTE: 5 12 19 26 34,923 34,521 34,714 2 9 35,052 34,892 34,501 34 605 349962 118,913 118,762 119,047 119,560 34,410 349117 34,825 34,647 20,398 20515 20,836 20,752 129008 12.062 12.139 12,079 1#005 1,540 1,850 1,816 34,629 34,475 34.542 34,400 119,079 118,572 34,450 349223 20,500 20,321 12,024 12.026 1,926 1,877 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED 10 REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Period Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Within 1-year -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 1 - 5 5 - 10 Over 10 Total 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 167 129 196 1,070 642 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 IV 1,294 74 385 234 315 1,006 1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. I II III IV -363 2,067 45 -886 115 109 171 77 554 796 881 794 226 245 345 232 156 134 160 192 1,052 1,284 1,557 1,294 1,100 954 42 129 301 580 72 272 65 95 480 1,077 -73 -266 119 1,029 48 695 266 Oct. Nov. Dec. 418 -733 -570 1977--Jan. 2,222 45 475 128 -518 -1,025 -234 757 42 18 113 -71 -45 184 1,098 1976--Dec. 1 8 15 22 29 1977--Jan. 5 12 19 26 Feb. LEVEL Feb. 62 73 -- -- -- 44 -242 -122 - -- -- - 15 439 -- 48 -- 475 128 35 --48 -- -- -- -- 2 9 16 23 9 (in billions) 40.4 -84 S 27 10.3 30.9 9.2 Net Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ 1975--Qtr. 1976--Aug. Sept. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 11, 1977 1/ 5.0 Within 1-year 1 - 5 5 - 10 Over 10 592 400 1,665 824 469 58 141 71 14 Total 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 -1,158 -46 -154 1,279 3,607 284 2,626 -1,401 535 240 1,022 3,371 436 1,256 1,654 392 304 1,484 1,954 2,093 633 409 -377 -1,742 -3,930 5,976 -6,877 - 115 S S - -41 -37 -36 - - -- -- -- 403 - -- -- - -- 2,908 - -115 -- - -- -- -- -- - - - -492 ----- --- --- --- --- - - - - - - --- ---- -- --- --- -- -- - 18 55.4 1,398 - --- - 1.4 -292 - -1,033 -267 1,249 43 465 181 1,772 -7,198 - - - 720 S - - - -24 1.3 .7 6.8 -6,290 3,102 3,384 2,882 3,54 -6,349 -1,231 -3,305 4,191 -45 S 3.3 Net RP's 6/ 1,059 964 3,082 1,613 891 -- 537 -677 Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ 102.7 6,641 2.3 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Exclude redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 11, 1977 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) Bonds Coupon Issues (2) Bills 1975--High Low I) 7,029 1,586 1976--High Low 8,896 3,668 3,046 175 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4,959 5,214 5,910 Apr. May June Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at SRB** Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate U. S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions 2,845 253 Excess** Seasonal Total 38 8 New York Others (a) Bonds Reserves (4) 389 48 (5) 804 -42 (8) -7,387 -1,757 655 -8,161 -2,367 -12,744 -11,632 - 7,207 0 343 34 1,220 1,051 778 34 66 43 97 181 151 232 256 223 -3,581 -4,138 -4,726 - 9,746 5,570 4,239 4,996 605 591 582 69 95 100 133 199 196 155 210 214 -5,179 -4,402 -4,219 -10,783 July Aug. Sept. 5,743 6,174 7,838 904 1,686 1,509 106 85 95 211 116 172 234 207 205 -4,756 -4,624 - 9,399 - 9,691 -5,703 - 9,716 Oct. Nov. Dec. 6,271 6,876 8,005 1,832 2,418 2,443 94 79 145 258 217 167 221 257 311p -6,428 -10,527 -6,289 -7,168 -11,618 *6,406 *2,320 82 202 332p -6,421 -11,504 1 8 15 22 29 6,402 7,927 8,896 7,815 8,179 2,359 2,611 1.932 2,068 3,046 0 152 266 116 44 384 125 467 71 348 -5,146 -7,726 -6,407 -10,845 -12,362 -12,340 -11,720 -10,050 5 12 19 26 7,123 7,141 *7,234 *5,917 3,017 2,680 *1,958 *2,243 26 59 91 152 513 404 31 20 p 90p -6,719 - 9,656 -8,742 -12,481 -12,993 -10,913 2 9 16 23 *3,720 *4,371 *1,694 *2,385 87p 75p -4,382p -5,817p 1977--Jan. 1976--Dec. 1977--Jan. Feb. 14 - - -4 _ 334 -1RO 79 1- 1 p 252p - I 11 __ _ __ _ L __ __ -10,15 - -11,449 -7,0n0 -7,244 -5,490 j __ _ _ _ _ _ _ 9,640 - 8,151 - 9,158 -6,873 109 -lllp 405p 70 5 2 p - 87 2' 60 37 82 - 6,908 _ -10,032p -1 _ _ _ 2 5 , 43p _ Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed bv repurchase NOTE: agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserve and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC FEBRUARY 11, 1977 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) SS ort-tera Comercial aper 1-ear 90-119 Day (3) (4) Long-term Municipal Corp.-Aaa Utility Bond Recently New Buyer Offered Issue (10) (11) (12) (FR) Horn1 Mortgage Secodary Market Primary IFMA Auc. GNMA Sec. Cony. (13) (14) (15) Treasury Bills CD's Neaw Issue-NYC Federal Fund (1) 90-Day (2) 60-Day (5) 90-Day (6) 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 7.31 5.46 8.43 5.38 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.38 8.44 6.46 8.50 7.18 8.63 7.63 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 9.59 8.80 9.95 8.78 9.10 7.93 1976--High Low 5.58 4.63 5.53 4.27 6.32 4.62 5.90 4.63 5.63 4.40 5.75 4.50 7.52 5.65 7.89 6.33 8.17 7.23 8.95 7.93 8.94 7.84 9.10 8.70 9.20 8.39 8.45 7.57 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.87 4.77 4.84 4.87 4.88 5.00 5.44 5.53 5.82 5.15 5.13 5.25 4.91 4.84 5.05 5.03 5.06 5.20 6.99 7.06 7.13 7.67 7.77 7.65 8.01 8.03 7.97 9.10 9.06 9.05 8.37 8.29 8.30 Apr. May June 4.86 5.20 5.41 5.23 5.14 5.08 5.54 5.98 6.12 5.82 5.64 5.50 5.08 5.44 5.83 5.54 4.35 5.33 4.81 5.25 5.55 5.30 5.23 5.11 4.94 5.38 5.68 6.84 7.27 7.32 8.89' 9.09 9.13 5.42 5.31 5.24 7.12 6.86 6.66 7.44 7.77 7.76 7.70 7.58 7.41 7.86 July Aug. Sept. 4.82 5.29 5.48 5.31 5.29 5.25 9.05 8.99 8.88 8.10 8.33 8.35 8.37 8.30 8.10 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.03 4.95 4.65 4.92 4.75 4.35 5.19 5.00 4.64 5.10 4.98 4.66 4.90 4.84 4.48 5.04 4.94 4.50 6.24 6.09 5.68 7.16 6.86 6.37 7.70 7.64 7.30 8.25 8.17 7.94 8.24 8.18 7.93 8.93 8.81 8.79 8.75 8.66 8.45 7.98 7.93 7.59 4.61 4.62 5.00 4.72 4.61 4.68 6.22 6.92 7.48 8.08 8.09 8.72 8.48 7.83 4.78 4.67 4.68 4.63 4.66 4.46 4.40 4.37 4.27 4.33 4.68 4.65 4.66 4.62 4.62 8.80 8.63 1977-Jan. 1976--Dec. 1 8 15 22 29 U. S. Govt.-Constant Maturity Yields 20-yr 7-yr 3-yr (7) (8) (9) 8.13 8.03 8.00 7.91 7.78 8.80 1977--Jan. 5 12 19 26 4.47 4.55 4.65 4.72 4.41 4.58 4.62 4.68 4.67 4.89 5.03 5.12 4.63 4.68 4.75 4.75 Feb. 2 9 16 23 4.60 4.66 4.74 4.64 5.25 5.16 4.80 4.78 Daily--Feb. 3 10 4.58 7 4.6 p 4.73 4.63 5.30 5.12 8.80 8.78 8.78 8.51 8.39 4.48 4.65 4.63 4.70 4.50 4.70 4.75 4.75 5.83 6.20 6.33 6.48 6.59 6.97 6.99 7.09 7.26 7.50 7.54 7.59 7.90 8.05 8.10 8.22 7.95 8.06 8.15 8.18 5.78 5.89 5.90 5.92 8.70 8.73 8.73 8.73 -8.46 -8.49 7.56 7.92 7.92 7.92 4.70 4.61 4.80 4.75 6.54 6 4 . 0p 7.17 7.12p 7.63 7.61p 8.15 -- 8.14 8.12p 5.93 5.86 8.68 n.a. -8.52 7.95 7.92 6.58 6.41p 7.22 7.14p 7.66 64 7. p - - Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date Is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives PNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for shortterm forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A FEB. MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SBANK CKRDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES Period Non borrowed Total 6_ .... Monetary Ba Adj. Total Loans Credit proxy and Invest- 1 1977 MONEY STOCK MEASURES M1 M2 M3 M4 ments mm 11, M5 M6 M7 10 11 12 I 4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 2 3 7.2 -0.5 1.4 9.4 1.3 1.6 9.2 5.8 6.9 10.2 3.9 4.9 9.2 4.4 6.4 4.7 4.1 5.9 7.2 8.5 11.4 6.1 11.4 13.2 10.6 6.4 7.6 9.0 9.8 10.6 8.7 10.8 10.4 9.0 10.6 10.6 ZND HALF 1975 0.3 0.8 5.8 3.5 4.5 2.8 6.9 10.2 5.7 9.2 10.8 10.6 1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976 -1.3 4.1 -1.3 4.5 6.7 6.9 3.0 6.7 4.9 7.6 5.7 5.9 10.2 11.9 11.7 13.8 5.9 9.0 8.9 11.9 8.9 11.3 9.3 11.4 -6.3 3.7 0.4 7.8 -5.4 2.9 1.1 7.9 4.6 8.7 5.4 8.3 1.9 4.0 1.8 11.5 5.5 4.3 7.2 7.9 4.5 6.8 4.5 7.8 11.0 9.1 10.5 13.0 12.4 10.7 13.0 14.2 5.0 6.6 5.8 12.1 8.5 9.0 9.9 13.5 8.7 9.0 9.2 13.1 8.6 9.8 9.Z 13.2 -3.9 0.7 3.0 4.3 -3.2 0.4 3.0 4.6 5.4 8.5 6.0 7.2 2.6 2.2 3.9 8.2 3.8 5.4 6.0 8.7 2.9 8.2 4.2 6.3 9.9 10.5 9.2 12.3 11.5 11.8 11.4 14.3 5.4 6.4 6.1 9.7 8.6 9.1 9.3 12.5 9.2 9.1 9.3 11.6 9.4 9.6 9.6 11.6 -10.2 -6.9 -1.8 0.7 4.0 6.5 2.2 4.7 -5.8 4.4 13.6 5.3 -8.4 -7.0 -0.8 1.0 1.4 6.1 2.0 5.9 -4.5 3.3 14.4 6.0 2.7 4.0 7.1 12.2 7.0 6.8 5.4 6.4 4.5 7.1 10.2 7.5 0.2 4.4 1.2 2.1 -3.7 13.5 3.2 0.7 1.6 11.9 11.3 10.8 3.5 5.9 6.9 5.4 5.4 2.1 7.1 8.2 6.1 12.2 9.4 2.0 2.0 6.1 5.3 14.9 6.8 -1.2 7.1 5.1 1.2 13.7 0.0 8.1 10.8 14.1 7.8 14.1 8.9 4.3 12.0 9.0 10.1 15.7 10.1 12.3 14.6 10.0 14.2 10.5 7.1 12.8 12.5 13.3 16.8 12.3 13.0 3.5 7.7 3.8 9.4 3.9 6.4 8.9 2.2 6.2 13.4 9.3 13.1 7.6 10.6 7.3 11.1 7.3 8.3 10.9 7.9 10.9 15.3 11.5 13.4 7.9 10.1 7.8 10.9 7.5 8.6 11.8 7.0 8.6 14.5 11.4 12.9 8.0 10.0 7.7 11.3 8.4 9.4 12.1 7.0 8.4 14.4 11.6 13.2 8.4 10.0 9.8 10.2 8 9 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 SE M-ANNUALLY: QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. QTR. QTR. 1976 1976 1976 1976 QUARTERLY-AVt 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. QTR. OTR. 1976 1976 1976 1976 MONTHLYt 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 10.0 4.2 9.0 5.8 . *. NOTESt ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY 1977-JAN. P 8.5 9.0 U - U I 12.6 9.4 . SUBJECT 10.7 I - TO RESERVE * U ** REQUIREMENTS. LOANS SOLD TO BANK- APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES FEB. 11, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANKCREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES Period Non Total 1 r on borrowed M 1977 MONEY STOCK MEASURES Total Loans t Adj. oneary Base Credit proxy and Investments MI M2 5 4 7 M4 M5 M6 M7 8 9 10 11 12 M 2 3 4 34,202 34,034 34,507 33,475 33,904 349454 104,400 110,425 118,097 494.6 $13.8 538.8 695.2 725.5 771.6 283.1 294.8 312.2 612.4 664.3 739.7 981.5 1092.9 1236.9 701.4 746.5 803.0 1070.5 1175.1 1300.2 1180.9 1308.0 1443.6 1221.3 1350.7 1494.1 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. 33,745 33,551 33,502 33,667 33,470 33,448 110,671 111,037 111,691 513.9 515.8 516.3 727.6 731.2 735.4 295.3 296.8 298.1 670.3 678.2 682.6 1104.1 1117.5 1126.8 748.7 753.5 755.9 1162.5 1192.9 1200.2 1316.6 1327.7 1336.3 1359.7 1371.0 1379.8 APR. MAY JUNE 33,521 33,632 33,814 33,477 33,517 33,688 112,830 113,489 114,132 517.2 515.6 521.4 738.7 742.0 743.3 301.8 303.5 303.2 690.6 695.7 698.2 1140.1 1150.1 1156.9 761.8 764.3 768.4 1211.3 1218.7 1227.1 1348.4 1356.8 1366.5 1392.8 1402.6 1413.6 JULY AUG. SEPT. 33,877 34,010 33,846 33,745 33,910 33,784 114,641 115,296 115,686 522.8 523.1 523.8 747.7 752.8 756.6 305.0 306.3 306.6 705.2 710.5 716.5 1169.2 1181.4 1194.5 774.1 775.5 779.5 1238.2 1246.3 1257.6 1379.9 1388.0 1397.9 1427.9 1436.2 1446.2 OCT. NOV. DEC. 33,971 34,355 34,507 33,877 34,283 349454 116,375 117,360 118,097 529.0 534,0 538.8 764.3 770.3 771.6 310.1 310.1 312.2 725.9 732.0 739.7 1211.2 1223.6 1236.9 788.2 794.3 803.0 1273.6 1285.8 1300.2 1414.8 1428.2 1443.6 1463.6 1477.6 1494.1 P 34,767 34,698 119,082 540.7 777.4 313.7 745.5 1247.9 808.6 1311.0 1455.4 1506.8 8 15 34,084 34,756 34,058 34,687 117,358 118,397 538.2 539.1 311.6 311.5 737.7 739.1 800.8 802.5 22 34,383 34,346 117,964 540.8 312.6 740.6 804.3 29 34,650 34,568 118,441 538.3 312.8 740.5 805.4 5 12 19 34,923 34,521 34,714 34,892 34,501 34,605 118,913 118,762 119,047 543.6 542.1 541.1 315.3 315.2 313.8 745.5 746.7 745.7 810.7 810.7 808.9 26P 35,052 34,962 119,560 540.4 311.8 744.7 807.8 2P 34,629 34,542 119,000 539,7 312.1 745.2 808.2 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 NONTHLYs 1977-JAN. WEEKLY I 1976-OEC. 1977-JAN. FEB* ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR FORROMINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS5 M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. I/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQIIRlEMNT&. NOTESI FEB. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 1977 11, COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency Period 1 Demand Deposits 2 Total 3 Time and Savings Deposits Mutual Other Than CD's S Total Svings Other Savings Bank & S&L Shares 4 5 ANNUALLY: 6 CD's 7 8 Credit Union Shares Savingss TerCommercial U S Gov't Paper Bondsi/ Securities 9 11 1 10 12 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 1974 1975 1976 10.2 8.7 9.5 3.0 2.6 4.8 14.9 8.0 8.6 9.4 12.2 15.6 2ND HALF 1975 7.9 1.0 7.7 1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976 10.3 8.3 4.2 5.3 6.0 10.9 10.9 9.5 8.8 7.6 2.5 5.8 3.2 7.4 9.8 11.2 7.8 8.7 7.0 17.8 25.5 11.2 8.2 8.1 10.4 16.0 6.1 13.8 16.4 23.6 24.5 6.4 9.6 -29.0 -19.7 5.4 6.6 6.5 15.1 16.0 11.1 15.0 17.1 32.4 13.6 19.0 28.7 3.6 9.1 11.7 7.2 0.9 7.0 2.8 5.8 7.1 5.4 7.3 11.8 15.3 12.4 13.0 16.8 28.3 21.7 13.4 26.9 9.8 11.3 11.2 14.3 11.0 3.1 9.3 7.7 9.2 10.6 6.0 6.0 0.5 3.8 3.2 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.4 4.8 -1.6 15.3 -2.6 9.4 4.3 9.0 2.9 5.8 1.8 12.0 9.8 0.0 9.7 13.2 15.3 16.1 17.2 20.5 9.8 14.0 9.9 9.2 15.5 11.7 17.2 17.3 17.6 15.6 10.4 3.6 10.0 12.1 41.3 -7.8 -22.9 5.5 15.8 15.9 12.1 20.2 18.0 4.8 6.3 6.8 9.0 39.5 8.8 -3.b 15.3 18.4 6.4 51.7 5.3 13.9 16.7 16.2 18.3 6.2 7.2 13.1 4.3 21.1 14.0 -42.4 -17.4 -40.5 1.3 14.5 12.8 16.9 15.9 16.8 15.0 17.8 18.1 5.9 6.4 8.1 6.2 12.8 13.0 -2.3 10.9 8.4 33.0 9.3 18.2 5.6 4.9 12.5 8.2 -29.8 -30.1 -24.6 -18.9 13.9 13.6 14.7 17.1 17.0 14.0 16.9 18.4 6.6 5.9 7.5 6.8 22.7 13.1 10.4 -0.6 17.3 23.1 21.0 11.6 26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 30.0 26.2 28.0 10.3 2.3 -1.7 7.4 3.4 16.4 18.9 3.8 12.0 6.5 10.8 4.3 -54.1 -45.9 -31.8 -36.0 -43.8 28.0 -22.2 -67.9 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2 14.3 15.6 13.0 14.1 13.0 10.9 13.9 18.0 18.2 18.0 15.3 13.8 21 6 10.6 17.5 13.8 13.7 16.9 13.3 19.8 19.5 19.1 15.7 18.6 5.3 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 7.0 5.2 10.3 8.5 5.1 6.8 6.7 14.6 5.4 18.0 12.4 10.5 15.6 34.3 -10.0 -30.3 10.3 12.0 10.2 11.2 5.6 8.3 22.0 37.8 36.7 20.3 5.0 2.5 9.9 22.2 21.8 20.9 4.2 -3.8 12.0 15.3 6.7 10.1 16.b 5.7 18.3 SEMI-ANNUALLY: QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. OTR. QTR. QTR. 1976 1976 1976 1976 QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. OTR. QTR. QTR. 1976 1976 1976 1976 MONTHLY: 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977-JAN. 1/ P - P GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED 8Y AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF 21.4 11, 1977 FEB. APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Savings Tie and Tre SaSavings and Deposits Demand Currency DPriod Deposits Othr Than CD's Total 2 1 3 ISavings D's Mutual Bank & S&L Shares Other 4 5 6 7 329.3 136.2 160.5 201.4 193.1 209.0 226.0 89.0 82.1 63.3 405.4 409.8 ShortTerm U.S. Gov't Credit Union Savings Shares Bonds _ 1_ Commercial Paper _ Sec 1/ NonTotal Gov't Deposit Funds Demand Depit 9 10 11 12 341.5 395.5 458.3 27.7 33.3 39.3 63.3 67.3 71.9 47.1 65.7 71.5 40.4 42.7 50.5 5.6 7.6 10.1 400.2 33.9 34.2 34.7 67.6 68.0 68.3 66.5 66.8 67.8 43.1 43.3 43.6 8.0 10.9 10.9 35.1 35.5 36.0 68.6 69.0 69.4 68.5 69.1 70.0 44.4 45.8 47.2 7.2 7.4 9.6 8 13 14 ANNUALLY: 67.8 73.7 80.7 215.3 221.0 231.6 418.3 451.7 490.7 74. 3 75,0 75.7 221.1 221.8 222.4 453.3 456.7 457.8 374.9 381.3 384.4 164.1 170.2 173.5 210.8 211.2 210.9 78.4 75.4 73.4 APR. MAY JUNE 76.6 77.3 77.5 225.2 226.2 225.6 460.0 460.7 465.3 388.9 392.1 395.1 176.7 179.4 179.4 212.2 212.8 215.7 71.2 68.6 70.2 JULY AUG. SEPT. 78.1 78.6 79.2 226.8 227.7 227.4 469.1 469.1 472.9 400.2 404.1 409.9 181.1 187.9 219.1 219.8 222.0 68.9 65.0 63.1 434.2 440.8 36.4 37.0 37.6 69.7 70.3 70.8 72.0 71.4 69.6 48.0 48.2 48.3 9.0 13.8 13.1 OCT. NOV. DEC. 79.9 80.3 80.7 230.3 229.8 231.6 478.1 484.2 490.7 415.8 421.9 427.4 192.6 196.8 201.4 223.2 225.2 226.0 62.3 62.2 63.3 447.4 453.1 458.3 38.2 38.7 39.3 71.1 71.5 71.9 70.2 70.9 71.5 48.7 49.6 50.5 13.9 13.5 10.1 81.4 232.3 494.8 431.7 204.9 226.8 63.1 462.9 39.8 72.3 72.1 51.4 10.2 80.6 80.8 80.7 80.8 231.0 230.7 231.9 232.0 489.2 491.0 491.7 492.6 426.1 427.7 428.0 427.7 202.3 203.4 204.5 204.7 223.9 224.3 223.5 223.0 63.1 63.4 63.7 64.9 8.9 8.7 11.2 10.7 19 26P 80.9 81.3 81.4 81.6 234.4 233.9 232.3 230.2 495.4 495.5 495.2 496.0 430.2 431.4 431.9 432.9 205.6 207.3 207.7 205.8 224.6 224.1 224.2 227.1 65.2 64. 1 63.3 63.1 10.2 10.6 10.2 10.1 2P 81.6 230.5 496.1 433.1 205.9 227.2 63.0 9.9 1974 1975 1976 369.6 427.4 MONTHLY: 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. 1977--JAN. P 184.4 414.6 419.1 422.9 427.8 WEEKLY 1976- EC. 8 15 22 29 1977-J AN. 5 12 FEB. . - 1/ 2/ P - ESTIMATED MONTHLY INCLUDES TREASURY PRELIMINARY . - a - - . - - a - a - AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. .- AND . - END OF . - PREVIOUS a - MONTH REPORTED I - - DATA. 

Federal Reserve (1977, February 14). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770215

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19770215,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Feb},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770215},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}