Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC January 14, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS I (FR) January 14, 1977 - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 expanded at an 8.1 per cent annual rate in December, after remaining unchanged in November. For the December-January period growth is estimated at about a 7-1/4 per cent annual rate--somewhat above the Committee's operating range. Savings deposits at commercial banks have continued to expand at a very rapid pace in December and early January, but inflows of M2-type time deposits have slowed considerably. Consequently, for the two-month period M 2 is expected to grow at around an 11 per cent annual rate, near the mid-point of the Committee's range. Deposit flows at nonbank thrift institutions accelerated somewhat in December from their November pace. Nonborrowed reserves appear to be rising at about a 10 per cent annual rate over the December-January period, reflecting strong bank demands for excess reserves in recent statement weeks as well as the pick-up in growth of demand deposits. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over December-January period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges M1 M2 Memorandum: Federal funds rate (Per cent per annum) 2 to 6 9 to 13 Latest Estimates 7.2 11.1 Avg. for statement week ending 4.63 Dec. 22 4.66 29 Jan. 5 4.47 12 4.55 -2(2) Throughout most of the intermeeting period, incoming data suggested that growth in M1 and M 2 over the December-January period would be within their respective two-month ranges, and the Desk continued to seek a Federal funds rate of around 4-5/8 per cent. While data available in the past few days suggested that M1 growth for the period may be somewhat above its range, M growth remained near the mid-point of its range, and the Desk--with the FOMC meeting only a few days away--decided to continue aiming for a funds rate of around 4-5/8 per cent. (3) Interest rates were generally stable in the last half of December, but in early January there were substantial upward rate pressures, especially on intermediate-term Treasury coupon issues. The continued stability of the funds rate at a time when many market participants had expected this rate to decline further appears to have contributed somewhat to the backup in market rates. Rate increases were intensified by press reports regarding possible fiscal stimulus and Federal deficits, by indications that the pace of economic activity has picked up in recent months, and by more rapid M1 growth than anticipated. On balance, since the last FOMC meeting, rates in short-term markets have advanced 10 to 30 basis points; yields on intermediate Treasury issues have increased as much as 60 basis points; and interest rates on long-term corporate and Treasury bonds have risen 10 to 25 basis points. (4) Short-term business credit demands increased modestly in December as a rise in commercial paper issuance was nearly offset by a -3decline in business loans at commercial banks. Activity in the capital markets was light over much of the intermeeting period reflecting the normal holiday lull. Most recently, however, the volume of corporate and municipal issues brought to market has increased sharply and the forward calendar has built up substantially, apparently reflecting the decision of borrowers to take advantage of the relatively low yields prevailing in bond markets. The Treasury has raised $3.8 billion of new money since the December meeting, and is expected to borrow much more heavily in the four weeks following the January meeting. (5) The table on the following page shows (in terms of per- centage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Past Six Months Dec. '76 over June '76 Past Three Months Dec. '76 over Sept. '76 Past Month Dec. '76 over Nov. '76 1.7 4.7 8.3 7.0 -1.9 1.5 4.2 8.2 6.3 5.3 7.0 7.0 8.4 7.8 M 1 (currency plus demand deposits ) 1/ 4.1 5.8 5.7 7.3 8.1 M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 8.5 11.3 11.7 12.9 12.3 11.3 13.1 13.6 13.7 12.7 M 2 plus CD's) 6.4 7.5 8.9 12.6 14.2 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.7 10.6 11.7 13.5 13.6 Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 3.9 4.8 6.5 12.0 10.8 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 4.4 6.3 7.5 7.9 1.9 Large CD's -.6 -1.6 -1.1 .5 1.7 Nonbank commercial paper -.2 -.1 .2 .7 Calendar Year Calendar Year 1975 1976 Nonborrowed reserves -0.2 Total reserves Monetary Base Concepts of Money M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) M4 Bank Credit Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) .2 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective Developments (6) Three alternative sets of longer-run ranges for the monetary aggregates applicable to the one year QIV '76-QIV '77 period are shown below. place Alternative B continues the same ranges currently in except for the bank credit proxy for which the range is higher than the present 5-8 per cent. The relationship of the proposed ranges to shorter-run specifications and longer-run interest rate and monetary developments is discussed in ensuing paragraphs. (End-point levels for M1 and M 2 implied by current and proposed longer-run ranges are compared in appendix I). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 5½-7½ 4½-6½ 3½-5½ M2 8½-11 7½-10 6½-9 M3 10-12½ 9-11 7½-10 8-11 7½-10½ 6½-9½ Bank credit proxy (7) Shorter-run specifications for monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate consistent with the longer-run ranges are summarized below. More detailed short-run and longer-run data are shown in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b.1/ Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges for January-February M1 4-8 3½-7½ 3-7 M2 8-12 7½-11½ 7-11 Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period) 1/ 3¾-4½ 4¼-5 4¾-5½ Appendix II includes estimates of 6-month growth rates in nonborrowed reserves--and related measures--believed consistent with the alternative longer-run growth rates in the monetary aggregates. -5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 December 1977 January February 311.9 313.5 315.0 311.9 313.5 314.8 311.9 313.5 314.6 739.5 745.5 751.7 739.5 745.5 751.2 739.5 745.5 750.7 1236.3 1248.3 1260.5 1236.3 1248.3 1259.9 1236.3 1248.3 1259.3 1976 QIII 305.9 310.5 305.9 310.5 305.9 310.5 710.9 732.4 710.9 732.4 710.9 732.4 1182.5 1223.8 1182.5 1223.8 1182.5 1223.8 315.2 320.7 315.0 320.0 323.9 327.6 314.8 319.1 322.1 324.4 752.1 772.8 790.8 808.2 751.5 769.7 784.9 798.3 750.9 767.1 778.6 788.4 1261.0 1299.6 1332.9 1363.9 1260.2 1295.1 1323.9 1348.7 1259.5 1290.6 1313.1 1331.1 QIV 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 325.7 330.8 Growth Rates Monthly: 6.2 5.7 6.2 5.0 1976 QIV 6.0 6.0 6.0 12.1 12.1 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 6.1 7.0 6.2 6.3 5.8 6.3 4.9 4.6 5.5 5.5 3.8 2.9 10.8 11.0 9.3 8.8 10.4 Semi-annual QIV '76-QII '77 QII '77-QIV '77 6.6 6.3 6.1 4.8 5.5 3.3 Annual QIII '76-QIV '77 QIII '76-QIII '77 QIV '76-QIV '77 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.7 5.9 5.5 4.8 5.3 4.5 1977 January February 9.7 10.0 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.2 11.6 10.6 12.1 14.0 14.0 14.0 7.9 6.8 10.1 8.6 6.0 5.0 12.2 12.2 10.2 9.3 11.9 11.1 8.9 7.5 11.7 9.9 7.0 5.5 11.0 9.2 10.2 7.4 9.5 5.6 12.4 9.9 11.7 8.3 10.9 6.3 10.9 11.2 10.3 9.8 10.4 9.0 8.7 9.5 12.3 12.7 11.4 11.2 12.0 10.2 10.1 11.0 Quarterly Average: 9.7 7.6 8.8 -5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 December 1977 January February 803.4 809.6 815.2 803.4 809.6 814.7 803.4 809.6 814.3 1300.1 1312.4 1324.0 1300.1 1312.4 1323.4 1300.1 1312.4 1322.9 539.2 542.3 545.2 539.2 542.3 544.8 539.2 1976 QIII 776.3 795.1 776.3 795.1 776.3 795.1 1247.9 1286.4 1247.9 1286.4 1247.9 1286.4 523.2 534.1 523.2 534.1 523.2 534,1 815.4 834.5 852.7 871.1 815.1 832.7 814.7 830.8 845.0 858.0 1324.2 1361.4 1394.8 1426.8 1323.8 1358.2 1388.2 1415.4 1323.2 1354.3 1379.5 1400.7 545.5 558.6 573.4 584.6 545.4 557.8 571.7 581.5 545.1 556.7 569.5 577.6 9.3 7.0 11.4 10.6 11.4 10.1 11.4 9.6 6.9 6.4 6.9 5.5 6.9 4.9 9,7 12.3 12.3 12.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.5 9.1 10.0 6.9 8.2 8.5 9.2 5.7 QIV 1977 QI QII QIII QIV 849.2 864.9 542.3 544.5 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 January February 9.3 8.3 Quarterly Averages: 9.7 1976 QIV 1977 QI QII QII QIII QIV 10.2 9.4 8.7 8.6 10.1 8.6 7.9 7.4 9.9 7.9 6.8 6.2 11.8 11.2 9.8 9.2 11.6 10.4 11.4 9.4 8.8 7.8 6.1 8.5 9.6 10.6 7.8 9.9 8.8 9.5 7.7 9.0 6.5 11.7 11.2 9.6 8.4 10.6 6.9 9.2 9.3 8.9 8.5 8.5 7.5 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.1 9,4 8,4 8.8 7.9 11.5 11.8 10.9 10.7 11.2 10.0 9.8 10,5 8.9 9.4 9.6 9.5 8.9 9.3 8.9 8.3 8.8 8.1 7.4 Semi-annual QIV '76-QII '77 QII '77-QIV '77 Annual QII '76-QIV '77 QIII '76-QIII '77 QIV '76-QIV '77 8.8 (8) Under alternative B, with a Federal funds rate centered within a 4¼-5 per cent range, we would expect M1 to grow in a 3 -7 cent annual rate range over the January-February period. per This represents a slightly higher 2-month range than has been presented in recent blue books, and reflects the pick-up in M1 growth that has occurred during the past few weeks as well as the stronger demand for money expected to be associated with the projected acceleration in growth of nominal GNP in the first quarter. (9) 7 -11 Growth in M2 over the January-February period may be in a per cent annual rate range under alternative B. The time and savings deposit component of M 2 is expected to grow less than in the fourth quarter, largely because banks have become less aggressive in seeking out time deposit funds. Offering rates reportedly have been cut, and longer-term certificates are apparently not being offered by some banks. (10) Interest rates might show little further change between now and the next Committee meeting if the funds rate remains around 4-5/8 per cent, although some further rate increase would not be surprising in view of market conditions. Demands by corporations and state and local governments on bond markets are expected to be quite heavy, as a large number of new issues have been accelerated to take advantage of current relatively low yield levels. Treasury cash needs in the first quarter are large--probably about $24 billion. The Treasury may raise about $4-5 billion of new cash in connection with the mid-February- refunding, to be announced on January 26. Perhaps the chief factor that could cause market rates to rise somewhat over the next few weeks, however, would be the effect on market expectations of any further evidence of a strengthening in the economy, monetary aggregates, and fiscal stimulus. (11) To maintain growth in monetary aggregates over the QIV '76-QIV '77 period within the longer-run ranges proposed under alternative B, the staff expects that the Federal funds rate would have to begin rising by early spring, and would reach a 1977 peak of around 6½ per cent in the fourth quarter of the year. The rise in short-term rates more generally that would be associated with such an increase in the funds rate would tend to curb the growth in time and savings deposits at banks and thrift institutions. As a result growth in M2 and M3 is expected to slow progressively as the year goes on. At the same time banks would probably begin to offer CD's more aggressively to accommodate credit demands generated by the projected substantial expansion in GNP. Bank credit expansion in 1977 is likely to be considerably more rapid than in 1976, when banks permitted outstanding CD's to drop sharply. (12) Growth in M1also is expected to be slower in the second half of the year than in the first half, partly reflecting the cumulative impact on money demand of a gradual tightening in money market conditions. In addition, growth in the first half is likely to be raised relative to the second half as a result of the particular fiscal stimulus being proposed. We have assumed that $10 billion of tax rebates and one-time social security payments would be made during the spring, which would enlarge growth in M1, as well as M2 and M3, in that period. Tax refunds in late winter and early spring are expected to be larger than last year and could also have a transitory impact on M1. (13) Alternative A encompasses a reduction in the Federal funds rate to the mid-point of a 3-4 per cent range over the next Under this assumption, M1 and M 2 over the January-February few weeks. period would be expected to grow at annual rates of 4-8 and 8-12 per cent respectively. Interest rates would be expected to decline over the next few weeks, but reductions maybe limited, particularly in long-term markets. Expectations that interest rates would soon rise might develop as the market observes faster growth in the aggregates and as the pace of economic expansion picks up. (14) Over the longer-run, under alternative A, we would not expect a very substantial rise in interest rates to develop, however, since the higher longer-run growth in the monetary aggregates embodied in that alternative would be more accommodative of money and credit demands. The funds rate would probably have to rise under this alterna- tive, given the projected strength of the economy, but perhaps to no more than an average level of around 5¼ per cent by the fourth quarter of the year. (15) Alternative C involves a tightening of the Federal funds rate over the next few weeks to the mid-point of a 4¾ -5½ per cent range. Over the January-February period M1 growth may be in a 3-7 per cent range--a step toward attaining the lower longer-run ranges for the monetary aggregates proposed for this alternative. The staff would expect that further pressures would have to be applied to the money market as the year progresses if growth in M1 over the QIV '76-QIV '77 period is to be constrained to around the mid-point of the 3½-5½ per cent alternative C range. The funds rate might reach about 7¼ per cent by the fourth quarter. (16) An increase in the funds rate over the next few weeks by about ½ percentage point would probably cause the 3-month bill rate to rise into a 5-5¼ per cent range. And rate increases in the intermediate- term Treasury coupon market could be substantial, since dealer coupon positions remain fairly sizable and because of the large amount of cash that may be raised in this area in connection with the forthcoming Treasury refunding. Corporate and municipal bond yields would also be likely to rise, but postponements of issues recently scheduled to take advantage of lower rates could moderate the increase. -10Proposed directive (17) Presented below are four alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive. The first three are couched in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead and are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. in The fourth alternative is proposed the event that the Committee again wishes to formulate its instructions in terms of money market conditions and to maintain the conditions now prevailing. Alternative "Monetary Aggregates" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: maintain prevailing]ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES over the period [DEL: immediately] ahead[DEL:, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected]. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: maintain prevailing] ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES over the period [DEL: immediately]ahead [DEL: , provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the ratescurrently expected]. -11Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: maintain prevailing]ACHIEVE bank reserve and money market conditions CONSISTENT WITH MODEST GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES over the period [DEL: immediately]ahead, [DEL: provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected]. "Money Market" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to maintain prevailing bank reserve and money market conditions over the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at about the rates currently expected. Appendix I Comparison of Levels of M1 and M2 Under Current and Proposed Longer-run Ranges ($ billion) M1 Quarters Level Based on Growth From QIII '76 at a 5¼ Per Cent Rate QIII '77 322.8 325.7 323.9 322.1 QIV '77 327.2 330.8 327.6 324.4 Terminal Levels based on longer-run growth from QIV '76 at rates assumed in: Alt. C Alt. B Alt. A M2 Growth From QIII at an 8¾ Per Cent Rate QIII '77 773.1 790.8 784.9 778.6 QIV '77 790.0 808.2 798.3 788.4 NOTE: The last three columns assume that growth around the mid-points of the proposed ranges is achieved and are the same numbers as shown in the table on p. 5a. The above tabulation indicates that the proposed alternative B implies levels of M1 in the latter half of 1977 little different from those implicit in the current longer-run range based on the third quarter of 1976. in the first Because of the more rapid growth in M1 now expected half of 1977, the third quarter 1977 level under alternative B is slightly higher (.3 of a per cent), but the fourth quarter level is virtually the same. For M2, however, the proposed alternative B implies substantially higher levels in the latter half of 1977 than are implied by the mid-point I-2 of the current growth range based on QIII '76. By the third quarter, M 2 would be about 1½ per cent, and by the fourth quarter about 1 per cent, higher under proposed alternative B. The levels of alternative C are considerably closer to the previously implied mid-point levels. Appendix II Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QIV '76 to QII '77 Consistent With Proposed Alternatives (Seas. adj. annual rates) Alt. A Alt. B Nonborrowed Reserves 7.8 6.5 Total Reserves 7.8 Monetary Base 8.3 Alt. C Appendix III Projected Federal Funds Rate 1977 QI QII QiII QIV Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 41 41 5t 6k Appendix IV Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) M1 M2 M3 M Q M Q M I 3.6 7.4 7.3 9.2 8.4 10.3 II 10.1 6.4 9.9 8.2 9.8 8.5 III 1.8 5.5 6.3 7.9 6.1 7.8 IV 7.8 5.1 10.5 9.0 9.9 8.4 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.0 6.2 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 1974 I 5.3 6.0 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.9 II 5.3 5.6 6.9 7.4 5.7 6.5 III 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 IV 4.7 4.0 6.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.7 5.0 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 I 1.4 0.6 6.9 5.6 9.0 7.5 II 9.7 7.4 12.5 10.2 14.5 12.6 III 3.6 7.1 6.5 10.1 10.7 13.3 IV 1.6 2.3 7.0 6.4 9.3 QIV '74-QIV '75 4.1 4.4 8.5 8.3 11.3 11.1 1976 I 4.5 2.7 11.0 9.7 12.3 11.2 II 6.8 8.4 9.3 10.8 11.0 12.0 III 4.1 4.1 10.3 9.2 13.1 11.6 IV 7.3 6.0 12.9 12.1 13.7 14.0 QIV '75-QIV '76 5.8 5.4 11.3 10.9 13.1 12.8 1973 1975 9.4 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. 1 MONETARY AGGREGATES CHART NARROW M ON EY SUPPLY M 1 1/14/77 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ER MONEY SUPPLY M 2 700 growth 680 660 1 640 1975 1976 1977 0 I N 1976 I D I F J 1977 CHART 2 1/14/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S550 -530 -510 I It / I , _,J, _ __,I RESERVES I 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 37 36 - 35 TOTAL 34 NONBORROWED ___I____i 1975 I I 1976 Ia 1977 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adusted to remove discontiruities associated with changes in reserve requirement rat7os. 1/14/77 CHART 3 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PERCENT INTEREST RATES Short-term PERCENT INTEREST RATES L WEEKLY WEEKLY AVERAGES - 7 - FHA MORTGAGI FNMA MONDAY AU Aaa -- 8 NEW IUNT RATE Se PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER -6 MONTH 7 i 5 / L3-MONTH EURO-DOLLARS DS RATE' - GOVT. B( 10-YEAR A' 4 5 RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MUNICIPAL BOND BU THURSDAYS - TREASURY BILLS 3-MONTH WED 4 +o -1 1975 1976 1977 1975 1976 1977 1975 1976 1977 Table 1 MONETARY AGGREGATES JAN. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 1977 14, ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply p Narrow Broad (Ml) (M2) Period MONTHLY Total U.S. Govt. Deposits Total 4 5 1 2 3 309.8 309.8 311.9 (313.5) 725. 732.0 739.5 (745.5) 528.6 534.4 539.2 (542.3) Nondeposit Time and Savings Deposits Adjusted ABank Credit Proxy Other Than CD'S Total Savngs Other 6 7 416.0 422.2 427.6 (432.0) 192.6 196.8 201.4 (205.1) C CD 8 Member Sources of U.S. Govt. Funds Deposits 9 10 11 9.0 9.1 9.2 6.6) 3.4 4.5 3.2 2.4) LEVELS-SBIL 1976--OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977-JAN. ( 13.9 13.5 10.1 9.1) 478.0 484.2 491.5 (496.0) 223.5 225.4 226.2 (226.9) ( 62.0 62.1 63.8 64.1) ( ( 2 ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 6.8 4.1 7.3 9.3 10.3 12.9 4.9 0.9 12.0 7.3 5.7 16.1 11.3 15.0 17.1 13.6 19.0 28.7 9.5 11.7 7.2 -14.2 -46.5 9.0 8.4 4.1 6.0 10.8 9.2 12.1 2.4 3.8 8.3 5.3 7.1 12.1 12.5 13.2 16.7 21.7 13.4 26.9 5.1 12.7 8.2 -30.6 -26.2 -17.7 ( 17.3 17.9 15.3 12.3) ( 30.0 26.2 28.0 22.0) ( 7.0 10.2 4.3 3.7) ( -7.7 1.9 32.9 5.6) ( 13.9) ( 25.3) ( 4.0) I 19.3) QUARTERLY-AV 1976-2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1976-OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977-JAN. DEC.-JAN. ( 13.7 0.0 8.1 6.2) ( 7.) ( 15.7 10.3 12.3 9.71 I 11.1) ( 11.7 13.2 10.8 6.9) ( 14.0 15.6 18.1 11.0) 8.9) ( 14.6) WEEKLY LEVELS-$BIL 1976-DEC. 15 22 29 310.2 311.3 311.1 312.3 312.3 735.0 737.6 739.0 740.5 740.2 537.1 538.2 539.1 540.8 538.2 11.8 8.9 8.7 11.2 10.7 487.6 489.5 491.3 492.0 492,8 424.9 426.4 427.9 428.2 427.9 198.3 199.9 201.0 202.1 202.2 226.6 226.4 226.9 226.1 225.7 62.8 63.1 63.4 63.7 64.9 9.4 b.9 8.9 9.9 9.0 3.5 4.0 4.3 3.8 2.1 5 314.3 744.3 543.3 10.2 495.3 430.1 202.9 227.2 65.3 8.9 1.9 1 8 JAN. NOTEt DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 JAN. 14, 1977 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period MONTHLY REQUIRED RESERVES Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 33,877 34,283 34,483 (34,BS3) 116,375 117.361 118,128 (119,150) 33,751 34,097 34,235 (349624) 20,131 20,336 20,242 (20,563) 11,696 11,749 11,924 (12,162) 3.9 0.2 8.2 3.0 1.0 8.3 8.8 5.4 8.4 4.0 0.4 7.0 6.0 4.0 1.8 -1.0 -6.4 9.3 0.7 3.0 4.4 0.4 3.0 4.7 8.5 6.0 7.3 1.1 2.7 3.9 4.2 3.6 2.9 -4.4 -0.8 -0.9 ( 4.5 13.6 6.3 12.2) I 3.3 14.4 7.0 12.91 ( 7.1 10.2 7.8 10.41 ( 3.8 12.3 4.9 13.6) ( -1.3 12.2 -5.5 19.0) ( 4.4 5.4 17.9 24.0) ( 9.3) 1 10.0) I 9.1) I ( 6.7) 1 21.1) LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1976--OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. 33,971 34,355 34,536 (34,887) ( 1,925 2,013 2,069 1,899) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1976--2NO QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1976--OC0. NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. DEC.-JAN. 9.3) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS NOTEt 1976-DEC. 1 8 15 22 29 34,763 34,084 34,756 34,383 34,757 34,676 34,058 34,687 34,346 34,675 118,069 117,358 118,397 117,964 118,552 34,379 33,959 34,289 34,312 34,310 20,333 19,872 20,385 20,387 20,267 11,806 11,859 11,906 11.935 11,993 2,240 2,228 1,998 1,991 2,050 1977-JAN. 5 12 34,995 34.736 34,963 34.717 119,001 118.966 34,403 34,277 20,395 20,494 11,996 12.124 2,012 1,660 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. REQUIREMENT RATIO. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC January 14, 1977 TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period Within 1-year -i--- 1 - -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 5 5 - 10 ii Over 10 Total 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 167 129 196 1,070 642 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Within 1-vear Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 592 400 1,665 824 469 58 141 71 14 Total I Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/- Net RP's 6/ 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 284 2,626 -1,403 535 240 1,022 3,371 436 1,256 1,654 392 304 1975--Qtr. IV 1,294 74 385 234 315 1,006 1976--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. I II III IV -363 2,067 45 -886 .15 09 .71 77 554 796 881 794 226 245 345 232 156 134 160 192 1,052 1,284 1,557 1,294 -2,000 1,100 954 42 .29 301 580 72 272 65 95 480 1,077 -2,040 1,484 1,954 -2,334 2,093 633 418 -733 -570 18 59 113 681 62 170 73 119 266 1,029 409 -377 403 -1,742 -3,930 5,976 -199 ----535 ---- 3,597 -4,105 -588 3,462 1976--July Aug, Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1976--Nov. Dec. 3 10 1 --- -200 -535 92 54 S S 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 5 -- -- - ------------ - -- -- - -492 -- ---- --- --- --- --- 1,249 43 537 - - - - -- 465 -45 -- -234 757 44 -242 -122 -84 48 -35 91 171 115 -- 266 - 439 36 -- 73 - 15 37 -- 62 - -- 41 -- 113 -- -- - --- 1,398 -- 18 - - ------- - -518 -1,025 42 1977--Jan. --- -- 115 - -292 - -1,033 -267 -6,290 3,102 3,384 2,882 3,254 -6,349 -1,231 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Exclude redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). 6/ Note: On January 12, the System's outright holdings of securities totalled $100.1 billion, including $38.4 billion of Treasury bills, $54.7 billion of Treasury notes and bonds, and $6.8 billion of Agency issues. In addition, the System had a net RP position of 91.9 billion. TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U. S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills 1975--High Low Coupon Issues Underwriting Syndicate Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JANUARY 14, 1977 Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** 8 New York 38 Others Total Seasonal Reserves (1) (2) (8) 7,029 2,845 253 -7,387 -1,757 -11,632 - 7,207 1,586 (9) 1976--High Low 8,896 *3,046 175 343 34 655 -180 242 24 -8,161 3,668 -2,367 -12,744 - 6,908 1975--Dec. 4,822 1,075 103 265 130 -2,811 -10,418 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4,959 5,214 5,910 1,220 1,051 778 97 181 151 232 256 223 79 81 54 -3,581 -4,138 -4,726 - 9,746 -10,015 - 9,640 Apr. May June 5,750 4,239 4,996 605 591 582 133 199 196 155 210 214 43 114 127 -5,179 -4,402 -4,219 -10,783 - 8,151 - 9,158 July Aug. Sept. 5,743 6,174 7,838 904 1,686 1,509 211 116 172 234 207 205 132 100 63 -4,756 -4,624 - 9,399 - 9,691 - 9,716 Oct. Nov. 6,271 6,876 *8,005 1,832 2,418 *2,443 258 217 167 221 257 311p 3 10 17 24 6,106 7,818 6.894 6,480 1,355 2,904 2,417 2,441 253 343 176 97 461 1 8 15 22 29 6,402 7,927 8,896 2,359 384 125 Dec. 1976--Nov. Dec. 1977--Jan. 5 12 19 26 *7,815 *8,179 1,932 *2,068 *3,046 122 144 226 201 143 *7,123 *7,141 *3,017 *2,680 188 196p 2,611 94 72 53 p 202 51 54 44 -5,703 -6,428 -6,289 -7,168 -5,730 -10,527 -11,618 -11,449 -8,030 -10,276 -12,664 -7,059 -5,479 -11,665 p 87 26 69 37 82 p -5,146 -6,873 -7,908 -7,726 -6,407 -10,845 -12,362 -12,349 -11,729 -10,050 592p 468p 32p 20p - ,781p -8,885p 22 434 120 467 71 44 7 6 -11,985 -10,537p 2 6 -1 ,31 p NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TABLE 5 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC JANUARY 14, 1977 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) Long-term Short-term Federal Funds (1) Treaury Bills 90-119 Day 90 Commercial Paper -Day 1-Year (2) (3) (4) (FR) CD's New Issue-NY 60-Day Aaa Utility 90-Day (5) ( New Issue Recently Offered () 76) (8) Municipal Bond Buyer (9) FNMA GNMA Yr. Constant Maturity Auction Yield Guaranteed Securities (10) (11) (12) U.S. Govt. 20- 1975--H1gh Low 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 7.31 5.46 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.67 6.27 8.63 7.63 9.10 7.93 1976--High Low 5.58 4.63 5.53 4.27 6.32 4.62 5.63 4.40 5.75 4.50 8.95 7.93 8.94 7.85 7.13 5.83 8.17 7.26 8.45 7.57 1975--Dec. 5.20 5.44 6.16 5.65 5.83 9.36 9.21 7.31 8.23 8.56 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.87 4.77 4.84 4.87 4.88 5.00 5.44 5.53 5.82 4.91 4.84 5.05 5.03 5.06 5.20 8.70 8.63 8.62 8.79 8.63 8.61 7.07 6.94 6.92 8.01 8.03 7.97 8.37 8.29 8.30 4.82 5,29 5.48 4.86 5.20 5.41 5.54 5.98 6.12 4.81 5.25 5.55 4.94 5.38 5.68 8,48 8.82 8.72 8.52 8.77 8.73 6.60 6.87 6.87 7.86 8.13 8.10 8.33 8.35 5.23 5.14 5.08 5.82 5.64 5.50 5.30 5.23 5.11 5.42 5.31 5.24 8.63 8.52 8.29 8.63 8.50 8.33 6.79 6.61 6.51 8.00 Aug. Sept. 5.31 5.29 5.25 7.78 8.37 8.30 8.10 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.03 4,95 4.65 4.92 4.75 4.35 5.19 5.00 4.64 4.90 4.84 4.48 5.04 4.94 4.50 8.25 8.17 7.94 8.24 8.18 7.93 6.30 6.29 5.94 7.70 7.64 7.31 7.98 7.93 7.59 5.06 4.98 5.02 4.90 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.67 5.16 5.16 5.12 4.89 4.85 5.03 -- 8.23 6.34 4.95 4.95 4.63 5.06 5.05 4.63 8.31 8.24 8.05 8.28 8.18 8.04 6.39 6.26 6.16 7.70 7.76 7.66 7.51 8.02 8.02 8.02 7.84 4.78 4.67 4.68 4.63 4.66 4.46 4.40 4.37 4.27 4.33 4.68 4.65 4.66 4.62 4.62 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 7.95 7.93 7.95 7.39 7.32 7.34 7.28 7.23r 7.75 7.62 7.60 7.57 7.57 5 12 19 26 4.47 4.55 4.41 4.58 4.67 4.89 4.50 4.70 7.90 8.05p 7.26 7.51p 7.56 7.92 6 4.59 4.59p 4.50 4.52 4.75 4.87 July 1976--Nov. 3 10 17 24 Dec. 1 8 15 22 29 1977--Jan. Daily--Jan. 4.48 4.65 7.95 8.02p 5.78 5.89 8.03 7.91 7.28 7.51(1/12) NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES BANK RESERVES / BANK REERVEMEASURES BANK CREDIT JAN. 14, 1977 MONEY STOCK MEASURES Total Period Totl Nonbore borrowd a I Monetary M ay Base Adi. Loans redit and proxy I Investments M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 7.1 -1.9 1.5 9.2 -0.2 9.2 5.3 7.0 10.2 3.9 4.8 9.2 4.4 6.3 4.7 4.1 5.8 7.2 8.5 11.3 6.8 11.3 13.1 10.6 6.4 7.5 2ND HALF 1Q75 -2.6 -2.1 4.8 3.1 4.5 2.6 6.8 10.1 5.7 1ST HALF 1976 2NQ HALF 1976 -1.2 4.2 -1.2 4.7 6.7 7.0 3.1 6.5 4.9 7.5 5.7 5.7 10.3 11.7 11.8 13.6 5.9 8.9 8.9 11.7 -6.3 3.9 0.2 8.2 -5.4 3.0 1.0 8.3 4.6 5.4 8.4 1.2 4.9 0.9 12.0 5.5 4.3 7.0 7.9 4.5 6.8 4.1 7.3 11.0 9.3 10.3 12.9 12.3 11.0 13.1 13.7 4.6 7.1 5.0 12.6 8.1 9.4 9.7 13.5 8.3 9.5 9.0 12.1 -3.8 0.7 3.0 4.4 -3.2 0.4 3.0 4.7 5.4 8.5 6.0 7.3 2.3 2.4 3.8 8.3 3.8 5.4 5.9 8.7 2.7 8.4 4.1 6.0 9.7 10.8 9.2 12.1 11.2 12.0 11.6 14.0 5.4 6.6 5.9 9.7 8.4 9.3 9.4 12.3 9.0 9.3 9.3 10.8 0.6 -1.6 7.0 0.7 -2.3 -3.2 4.0 7.1 5.3 7.7 8.8 9.6 -10.Z -8.4 -7.0 -0.8 1.1 1.3 6.6 1.7 5.7 -4.4 3.3 14.4 7,0 2.7 4.0 7.1 12.2 7.0 6.9 5.3 6.4 4.5 7.1 10.2 7.8 -0.7 3.5 9.9 3.0 -4.6 16.3 3.0 -2.5 2.3 3.5 5.9 6.9 5.4 5.4 2.1 6.9 8.2 5.9 12.2 9.4 1.9 1.2 6.1 6.1 14.9 6.8 10.3 14.1 8.3 14.4 8.5 4.8 11.9 9.2 9.5 15.7 10.3 12.3 11.6 14.4 10.5 14.4 10.5 7.7 13.0 3.2 6.6 3.8 10.3 2.7 8.2 9.0 0.3 5.7 14.0 9.3 14.2 7.0 9.5 7.7 11.8 6.6 9.7 11.1 7.1 7.4 9.2 8.0 11.6 6.9 9.8 12.0 6.3 8.4 13.6 10.1 12.3 7.5 9.0 8.1 11.9 7.8 10.7 12.3 6.2 8.2 13.4 10.4 12.7 4 5 6 (Per cent annual rate of growth) ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 1.7 9.0 9.7 10.6 8.8 10.7 10.1 9.0 10.6 10.3 9.Z 10.1 10.6 9.0 10.7 10.8 SENI-ANNUALLYt 9.4 QUARTERLY: 1ST Q7R. 1976 2ND OTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976 4TH QTR. 1976 8.8 8.3 10.2 9.0 12.3 QUARTERLY-AVy 1ST QTR. 1976 2NQ 1976 QTR. 3RQ QTR. 1976 4TH QTR. 1976 9.3 9.8 9.7 10.8 MONTHLYI 1975-*OEC. 19T6--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. -6.9 -1.8 0.8 3.8 7.0 2.0 4.6 -5.8 4.5 13.6 6.3 OCT. NOV. DEC. P 11.7 13.2 10.8 -1.2 6.7 5.9 -0.4 13.7 0.0 8.1 12.7 13.2 16.5 11.6 12.7 10.6 15.3 11.1 13.6 w NOTES: ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD 10 BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES JAN. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS A Period ITotal Non Nonborrowed Monetary Monetary Base Adj. Credit proxy 1 2 3 4 34,693 34,034 34,536 33(966 33,904 34,483 104,892 110,425 118,128 495.3 514.4 539.2 1975--DEC. 34,034 33,904 110,425 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. 33,745 33.551 33,502 33,667 33,470 33,448 .33,523 33,629 33,826 JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. P Total 1977 MONEY STOCK MEASURES CREDIT MEASURES ,BANK I BANK RESERVES Y 14, Loans and Investments 5 M M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 695.2 725.5 771.3 283.1 294.8 311.9 612.4 664.3 739.5 981.6 1092.9 1236.3 702.2 747.2 803.4 1071.4 1175.8 1300.1 1181.6 1308.7 1440.3 1222.2 1351.4 1490.8 514.4 725.5 294.8 664.3 1092.9 747.2 1175.8 1308.7 1351.4 110,671 111,037 111t691 514.1 515.6 516.0 727.6 731.2 735.4 295.1 296.6 298.1 670.0 677.9 682.6 1103.5 1116.7 1126.5 749.2 753.3 755.7 1182.7 1192.1 1199.7 1316.8 1326.9 1335.7 1359.9 1370.1 1379.3 33,478 33,515 33,699 112,831 113,487 114,143 517.3 515.3 522.3 738.7 742.0 743.3 301.8 303.5 303.2 690.8 695.7 698.5 1140.0 1150.0 1157.4 762.2 763.9 769.1 1211.5 1218.2 1228.0 1348.6 1356.3 1367.4 1393.0 1402.1 1414.6 33,881 34,010 33,845 33,748 33,909 33,784 114,644 115,255 115,686 523.6 522.5 523.5 747.6 752.7 756.4 304.9 306.4 306.3 705.4 710.8 716.4 1169.9 1182.3 1195.3 774.9 775.1 778.8 1239.4 1246.7 1257.7 1381.1 1388.3 1398.0 1429.1 1436.5 1446.3 33,971 34,355 34,536 33,877 34.283 34,483 1169375 117.361 118,128 528.6 534.4 539.2 764.1 770.1 771.3 309.8 309.8 311.9 725.8 732.0 739.5 1211.7 1223.4 1236.3 787.9 794.0 803.4 1273.7 1285.5 1300.1 1413.8 1425.7 1440.3 1462.5 1475.2 1490.8 10 17 24 33,903 34,705 34,087 33,853 34,651 34,043 116,697 117,657 117,209 531.7 535.0 534.4 310.5 310.8 307.6 731.1 732.5 731.0 792.6 794.5 793.4 1 8 15 22 29P 34,763 34,084 34,756 34,383 34,757 34,676 34,058 34,687 34,346 34,675 118,069 117,358 118,397 117,964 118,552 537.1 538.2 539.1 540.8 538.2 310.2 311.3 311.1 312.3 312.3 735.0 737.6 739.0 740.5 740.2 797.8 800.7 802.4 804.2 805.1 5P 34,995 34,963 119,001 543.3 314.3 744.3 809.6 I ANNUALLY 1974 1975 1976 MONTHLY: APR. MAY JUNE WEEKLYt 1976-NOV. DEC. 1977-JAN. NOTESI I/ ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD 10 BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, MT, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 8ASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. 14, 1977 JAN. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Period CurrencyDemand Savings DepstTotal 1 2 3 4 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 CD' Other Than CD's 10.2 8.7 9.5 3.0 2.6 4.6 15.0 7.9 8.6 7.6 0.9 1976 1976 10.6 8.0 4.2 5.0 1SI QTR. 1976 1976 2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 1976 4TH qTR. 1976 10.9 10.0 7.7 8.1 Mutual ndBank avings & 8 7 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 7.0 17.8 25.5 11.2 8.2 8.2 7.8 10.4 16.0 6.0 11.0 13.9 16.3 23.6 24.5 2.5 5.8 2.8 7.0 4.6 7.3 5.7 16.1 16.0 11.3 15.0 17.1 32.4 13.6 19.0 28.7 9.8 11.7 7.3 8.7 0.5 7.4 2.8 5.1 7.2 5.3 7.1 12.1 15.3 12.5 13.2 16.7 4.9 -5.9 11.0 8.1 12.9 11.2 15.9 9.4 4.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 10.6 7.5 6.0 -0.5 3.8 4.3 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.4 5.3 -3.2 14.6 -2.6 8.9 4.5 6.9 2.4 7.3 0.0 14.3 10.6 -3.3 9.7 14.0 15.6 18.1 Sainds Short Ter 9 Commercial G n Shares- Other 9.4 12.2 15.7 Credit Union 11 10 12 41.4 -7.7 -23.0 5.6 15.8 15.8 12.1 20.2 17.4 4.8 6.3 6.7 J.0 39.5 4.1 16.8 5.7 18.3 6.1 -2.9 15.2 17.6 6.4 51.7 5.3 6.6 9.5 -29.7 -19.3 14.0 16.5 16.8 16.6 6.2 6.9 13.1 -4.6 21.1 14.0 3.6 9.5 11.7 7.2 -46.8 -14.2 -46.5 9.0 14.3 13.2 17.6 14.7 16.8 16.1 16.6 16.0 5.9 6.4 8.1 5.6 12.8 13.0 -2.3 -6.9 8.4 33.0 9.3 18.9 28.3 21.7 13.4 26.9 5.6 5.1 12.7 8.2 -29.3 -30.6 -26.2 -17.7 13.4 13.8 15.4 16.6 17.1 16.4 15.7 18.4 6.6 5.9 7.5 6.8 22.7 13.1 10.4 -13.0 17.3 23.1 21.0 11.6 10.1 20.5 1.7 16.1 11.3 18.3 7.2 31.9 34.7 17.2 20.5 9.8 14.0 10.2 9.5 15.5 12.0 16.9 17.3 17.9 15.3 26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 30.0 26.2 28.0 10.3 2.3 -1.7 8.0 3.4 16.9 18.9 3.8 12.0 7.0 10.2 4.3 -53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -27.9 -55.4 42.2 -17.0 -89.7 -37.3 -7.7 1.9 32.9 13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.7 14.5 18.8 18.8 17.1 13.4 13.0 18.0 10.7 21.1 13.8 13.7 20.3 10.0 19.8 19.5 19.1 15.7 12.4 5.3 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 7.0 5.2 10.3 8.5 5.1 6.8 5.0 14.6 5.4 18.0 12.4 10.5 15.6 34.3 -10.0 -30.3 -10.3 -3.5 -7.0 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1975 2ND HALF 1ST HALF 2ND HALF QUARTERLY: QUARTERLY-AV: 1ST 2N0 3RD 4TH OTR. OTR. OTR. OTR. 1976 1976 1976 1976 MONTHLY 1975-DEC. 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT, OCT. NOV. DEC. P I/ P - GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF 11.2 5.6 8.3 22.0 37.8 36.1 20.3 5.0 2.5 9.9 19.7 24.2 JAN. 14, 1977 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Deposi Total Other Than CD's ITotal ISavings CD's Other 7 Com- on- onds Gov't Sec / Paper Funds Demand Depo 9 10 11 12 13 14 27.7 33.3 39.1 63.3 67.3 71.8 47.1 65.7 68.4 40.4 42.7 50.5 5.6 7.6 10*1 & S&L Shares Shares _ 8 Tt Tr 2 3 4 5 67.8 73.7 80.7 215.3 419.1 452.4 491.5 329.3 369.6 427.6 136.2 160.5 201.4 193.1 209.0 226.2 89.8 221.0 231.2 63.8 341.6 395.5 457.9 1975-DEC. 73.7 221.0 452.4 369.6 160.5 209.0 82.9 395.5 33.3 67.3 65.7 42.7 7.6 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. 74.2 75.0 75.7 220.9 454.1 456.7 457.6 374.9 381.3 384.4 164.1 170.2 173.5 210.8 211.2 210.9 79.2 75.4 399.9 404.8 33.8 34.1 73.2 409.6 34.7 67.6 68.0 68.3 66.5 66.8 67.8 43.1 43.3 43.6 8.0 10.9 10.9 176.7 179.4 179.4 212.3 212.9 215.9 71.5 68.2 414.4 419.0 423.1 35.1 35.5 36.1 68.6 69.0 69.4 68.5 69.1 70.0 44.4 45.8 47.2 7.2 7.4 9.b 69.6 428.2 434.9 441.7 36.4 37.0 69.7 70.3 70.8 72.0 71.4 69.6 48.0 48.2 48.3 9.0 13.8 13.1 448.0 38.2 453.0 457.9 38.7 39.1 71.1 71.5 71.8 69.0 68.8 68.4 48.7 49.5 13.9 13.5 10.1 1 6 s Credit Sav ANNUALLYt 1974 1975 1976 82.9 MONTHLYt 221.6 222.4 APR. MAY JUNE 76.7 77.3 77.6 225.2 226.2 225.6 460.4 460.4 465.9 388.9 392.2 395.3 JULY AUG. SEPT. 78.1 78.6 79.1 226.8 227.8 227.2 470.0 468.7 472.5 400.4 404.4 410.1 181.1 184.4 187.9 219.3 220.0 OCT. NOV. DEC. P 79.8 80.3 80.7 230.0 416.0 422.2 427.6 192.6 196.8 201.4 223.5 225.4 226.2 62.0 62.1 231.2 478.0 484.2 491.5 10 17 24 80.3 80.2 80.3 230.2 230.7 227.3 482.1 483.7 485.8 420.6 421.6 423.4 196.0 196.7 197.6 224.6 225.0 225.8 61.5 62.0 62.4 15.4 14.2 2.2 1 8 15 22 29P 80.3 80.6 80.8 80.7 80.8 229.9 230.7 230.4 231.5 231.5 487.6 198.3 199.9 201.0 202.1 202.2 226.6 226.4 226.9 226.1 225.7 62.8 491.3 492.0 492.8 424.9 426.4 427.9 428.2 427.9 64.9 11.8 8.9 8.7 11.2 10.7 SP 80.9 233.3 495.3 430.1 202.9 227.2 65.3 10.2 229.5 222.2 70.6 64.4 62.4 63.8 37.6 SO-S. WEEKLYt 1976-NOV. DEC. 1977-JAN. 1/ 2/ P - 489.5 63.1 63.4 63.7 .aS*S*. . . ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY a .~ END OF a PREVIOUS aMONTH REPORTED DATA. - - 

Federal Reserve (1977, January 17). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770118

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19770118,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1977},
  month = {Jan},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19770118},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}