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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC November 12, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) November 12, 1976 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 grew at a 14.5 per cent annual rate in October, after remaining essentially unchanged in September. In November M1 growth appears to be moderating significantly, however, and for the OctoberNovember period it is now projected at a 9.5 per cent annual rate--somewhat above the upper end of the Committee's 5-9 per cent operating range. With time and savings deposit inflows at commercial banks also running stronger than anticipated, M2 is expected to grow at a 14.1 per cent annual rate in the October-November period, also above the upper limit of its 2-month range. Growth of deposits at nonbank thrift institutions also remained rapid during October, though less so than in the third quarter. As a result of the increased demand for reserves associated with the strength in demand and time deposits, nonborrowed reserves appear to be increasing at an 8.7 per cent annual rate in the October-November period-a considerably more rapid pace than over the preceding months of the 1/ year.- 1/ Appendix A contains a discussion of the actual behavior of nonborrowed reserves in the weeks between the October and November meetings relative to the behavior that was expected to be consistent with the Committee's short-run ranges for monetary growth. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over October-November Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges M 5 to 9 M2 9 to 13 Memo: Federal funds rate Latest Estimates 9.6 14.1 Avg. for statement week ending (Per cent per annum) Oct. 20 27 4.97 4.99 Nov. 5.06 4.98 3 10 (2) Shortly after the October FOMC meeting, incoming data suggested that growth in M1 and M 2 would be at the upper limits of the Committee's ranges. In these circumstances it appeared likely that the immediate reduction in the funds rate objective contemplated by the FOMC at its October meeting would have to be quickly reversed. The Chairman, therefore, recommended--and a majority of the members concurred--that the Desk continue aiming for a Federal funds rate at about the prevailing level of 5 per cent. In the following week, with additional data suggesting continued strength in the aggregates, the Chairman advised the Desk that an increase in the funds rate would be inconsistent with the Committee's intentions. (3) Interest rates have fluctuated within a narrow range since the October Committee meeting. Most market rates edged upwards, as market expectations of an immediate further decline in the Federal funds rate were apparently disspelled early in the intermeeting period by published weekly data suggesting that the monetary aggregates would grow substantially in October. In lagged response to earlier declines in market yields, however, the bank prime rate was reduced ¼ of a point to 6½ per cent. In the mortgage market, the FNMA auction yield and interest rates on conventional home mortgages reported by savings and loan associations have declined somewhat in recent weeks. Stock prices have fallen significantly further since the October FOMC meeting. (4) Corporate demands for long term credit, after being very strong through much of October, have been moderating recently, but the volume of new tax exempt bond offerings has remained quite high. The Treasury has also been an active borrower over the period since the October FOMC meeting, raising $1.3 billion of new money through the sale of 2-year notes in late October and $2.5 billion in connection with its mid-November refunding. In the refunding, the Treasury auctioned $3.3 billion of 3-year notes at an average rate of 6.36 per cent, $2.2 billion of 7-year notes at an average rate of 7.02 per cent and $1.0 billion of a reopened 23¼ year bond at an average rate of 7.79 per cent. These issues have most recently been trading around their auction averages. Dealers have made fairly good progress in distributing the large awards they received in the auctions. (5) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Calendar Year 1975 Twelve Months Oct. '76 over Oct. '75 Past Six Months Oct.'76 over Apr.'76 Past Three Months Oct.'76 over July'76 Past Month Oct.'76 over Sept.'76 Nonborrowed reserves 1.3 1.0 2.5 1.7 3.5 Total reserves -.4 0.7 2.8 1.2 4.6 Monetary Base 5.8 7.0 6.3 6.0 7.1 M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 4.1 5.7 5.4 6.7 14.5 M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 8.5 10.7 10.2 11.6 15.9 M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 11.3 12.6 12.6 14.3 16.4 (M2 plus CD's) 6.4 6.9 6.7 6.7 14.0 (M3 plus CD's) 9.7 10.1 10.3 11.1 15.2 Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 12.1 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 4.4 6.0 6.9 8.8 12.2 -.6 -1.6 -1.6 -2.5 -0.4 -.2 0.1 -.5 -.2 Concepts of Money (Revised Series) M Bank Credit Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper -.1 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments Summarized below are three alternative sets of short-run (6) specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. More detailed data, including longer-run growth rates, are shown in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges for November-December M1 3-7 2½-6½ 2-6 M2 10-14 9½-13½ 8½-12½ Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period) (7) 4-5 4½-5½ 5-6 Each of the alternatives presented is believed to be generally consistent with the longer-run ranges for the aggregates covering the QIII '76-QIII '77 period adopted by the Committee at the November 8 telephone meeting. But each of the shorter-run alternatives implies a different pattern of interest rates and of money growth rates within the QIII '76-QIII '77 period, as summarized in the following table.1/ Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 6¼ 6 5¾ 4-7/8 5-1/8 5-3/8 QIII '76-QI '77 Growth in M1 Average funds rate QI '77-QIII '77 Growth in M1 Average funds rate 1/ 4½ 6-1/8 4¾ 5-7/8 5 5½ The projected quarterly patterns of the funds rate over the next year are shown in Appendix table II. -5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 M2 M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 October November December 310.0 311.2 312.5 310.0 311.2 312.3 310.0 311.2 312.1 725.9 733.6 740.8 725.9 733.2 740.1 725.9 732.9 738.8 1211.7 1225.6 1239.6 1211.7 1225.1 1238.1 1211.7 1224.6 1236.2 1976 QIII QIV 305.9 311.2 305.9 311.2 305.9 311.1 710.9 733.4 710.9 733.1 710.9 732.5 1182.5 1225.6 1182.5 1225.0 1182.5 1224.2 1977 QI QII QIII 315.5 319.6 322.8 315.3 319.1 322.8 314.7 318.6 322.8 754.0 771.0 783.6 752.3 768.4 783.0 750.3 767.1 783.7 1265.0 1297.7 1322.4 1261.9 1292.7 1320.7 1258.7 1291.3 1323.4 12.7 11.6 12.1 11.3 11.6 9.7 13.8 13.7 13.3 12.7 12.8 11.4 12.2 14.6 14.4 14.1 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 November December 4.6 5.0 4.6 4.2 Quarterly Average: 1976 QIV 6.9 6.9 6.8 12.7 12.5 1977 QI QII QIII 5.5 5.2 4.0 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.6 5.0 5.3 11.2 9.0 6.5 10.5 8.6 7.6 9.7 9.0 8.7 12.9 10.3 7.6 12.0 9.8 8.7 11.3 10.4 9.9 Semi-annual QIII '76-QI '77 QI '77-QIII '77 6.3 4.6 6.1 4.8 5.8 5.1 12.1 7.9 11.6 8.2 11.1 8.9 14.0 9.1 13.4 9.3 12.9 10.3 Annual QIII '76-QIII '77 5.5 5.5 5.5 10.2 10.1 10.2 11.8 11.7 11.9 FOMC Longer-run Range QIII '76-QIII '77 44-6% 74-10 9-11 -5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 October November December 787.9 794.5 801.3 787.9 794.1 800.3 787.9 793.8 799.4 1273.7 1286.6 1299.8 1273.7 1286.0 1298.2 1273.7 1285.5 1296.7 528.8 533.0 535.0 528.8 532.7 534.2 528.8 532.5 533.8 1976 QIII QIV 776.3 794.6 776.3 794.1 776.3 793.7 1248.0 1286.7 1248.0 1286.0 1248.0 1285.3 523.2 532.3 523.2 531.9 523.2 531.7 QI QII QIII 813.7 831.6 846.7 812.1 829.8 846.5 810.8 828.5 846.8 1324.7 1358.2 1385.5 1321.7 1354.0 1384.1 1319.2 1352.8 1386.5 540.9 553.0 564.5 539.9 552.0 564.5 539.2 551.2 564.6 1977 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 November December 10.1 10.3 9.4 9.4 12.2 12.3 11.6 11.4 11.1 10.5 9.5 4.5 8.9 3.4 8.4 2.9 9.2 12.4 12.2 12.0 7.0 6.7 6.5 9.1 8.7 8.1 11.8 10.1 8.0 11.1 9.8 8.9 10.6 10.2 10.0 6.5 8.9 8.3 6.0 9.0 9.1 5.6 8.9 9.7 12.3 9.2 11.8 9.4 11.4 10.2 6.8 8.7 6.4 9.1 6.1 9.4 11.0 10.9 11.1 7.9 7.9 7.9 Quarterly Averages: 1976 QIV 1977 QI QII QIII 9.6 8.8 7.3 Semi-annual QIII '76-QI '77 9.6 QI '77-QIII '77 8.1 9.2 8.5 9.1 9.0 Annual QIII '76-QIII '77 9.1 (8) Alternative A involves an easing in money market conditions over the next few weeks--with the funds rate moving down to the mid-point of a 4-5 per cent range. However, assuming the staff's projection of the rate of expansion in nominal GNP over the next year is correct, interest rates would not be expected to decline for long and would probably soon have to begin rising if M1 growth over the QIII '76-QIII '77 period were to be kept to around 5½ per cent (the mid-point of the Committee's longer-run range of 4½-6½ per cent). On balance, money market conditions would be somewhat easier and monetary growth rates somewhat more rapid over the next six months under alternative A than under alternatives B or C. On the other hand, alternative A would involve greater monetary restraint in the second six months of the QIII '76-QIII '77 period. (9) Alternative B involves maintenance of the Federal funds rate at around 5 per cent over the next few weeks. We have also assumed that credit and money demands would not begin to exert significant upward pressures on the rate until around the middle of the first quarter of 1977. Moreover, because alternative B--in contrast to alternative A-- does not involve any additional stimulation over the near term, not as much monetary restraint would be required in the spring and summer of next year to attain a one-year growth rate of 5½ per cent in M1. As a result, the funds rate would rise less than under alternative A. (10) Alternative C involves a tightening in the money market over the next few weeks, with the funds rate rising to around 5½ per cent by the time of the next Committee meeting. With such an early effort to restrain growth in the aggregates, we would expect that little, if any, further tightening would be required later. (11) In general, under all three alternatives, the staff fore- sees less upward pressure on interest rates than it had earlier. Transactions needs for money are expected to be lower than thought earlier because the staff's projection of nominal GNP over the next year has been further reduced. Also, of course, financial innovations of the past year or two are expected to continue to reduce the demand for M 1 over the coming year. (12) If our assessment of the interest rate outlook is correct, it appears likely that growth in M 2 and M 3 over the QIII '76-QIII '77 period under any of the three alternatives may be at, or a shade above, the upper ends of the 7½-10 and 9-11½ per cent ranges adopted for them by the Committee. In making these estimates, we have assumed no substantial near-term efforts by banks and thrift institutions to discourage recent large inflows of time and savings deposits (other than large CD's) by lowering offering rates on time certificates or by other means. If such efforts develop, or if upward market interest rate pressures turn out to be stronger than expected, growth in M2 and M 3 would be more likely to fall within the Committee's ranges. (13) Under any of the alternatives presented, we expect M1 growth over the November-December period to be modest. Assuming unchanged money market conditions over the next few weeks, as under alternative B, M1 may expand in a 2½-6½ per cent annual rate range during the 2-month period. Incoming data for early November suggest a sharp deceleration in growth during the current month from the unusually high October rate Moreover, growth is unlikely to strengthen in December, given the sluggish expansion in economic activity now expected in the fourth quarter. If the mid-point of the 2½-6½ per cent November-December range is realized, growth in M1 from the third to the fourth quarter would be at almost a 7 per cent annual rate. (14) and December. Expansion in M 2 is expected to be quite sizable in November Recent data suggest that net inflows of time and savings deposits (other than large CD's) at banks are continuing at around the rapid September-October pace. Interest rates on such deposits are expected to remain attractive over the weeks ahead as competing market interest rates remain relatively low, especially under alternatives A and B. With the unchanged money market conditions of alternative B, growth for M2 during November-December may be in a 9½-13½ per cent annual rate range-the mid-point of which is above the upper limit of the Committee's longerrun range. (The mid-point of the 2-month M1 growth band, on the other hand, is at the lower limit of its longer-run range). The tightening of money market conditions contemplated under alternative C may reduce the 2-month M 2 growth rate to an 8½-12½ per cent range. (15) Credit demands are not expected to be particularly strong between now and year-end. Neither information from the banking community nor underlying economic forces suggest that business loan growth at banks will be as large in the weeks ahead as it was in October, when there was a surge in loan growth. Corporate demands on capital markets--particularly the public bond market--seem to be in process of moderating, but a large volume of foreign bond offerings is scheduled over the next few weeks. The Treasury will probably raise $5 to $7 billion of new cash in the market between now and year-end, but borrowing of this size has probably already been discounted in the market. (16) Thus, if the funds rate over the next few weeks stays around its currently prevailing level of 5 per cent, market interest rates generally are not likely to be under any upward pressure from the demand side. If incoming economic data remain weak and expectations of a further easing in monetary policy once again develop, interest rates might edge down. And if the Federal funds rate should decline over the next few weeks by about ½ percentage point, short-term rates may well drop substantially, with the 3-month bill rate perhaps falling to around 4 cent. spread. per Expectations of a discount rate decline would become more wideDownward pressures on institutional rates--such as the prime loan rate and primary mortgage market rates--would intensify. On the other hand, if the Federal funds rate were to rise by about ½ percentage point, there might be very considerable upward market rate adjustments in the short run--particularly in the U.S. Government securities market, where dealer positions are currently very large. -10Proposed directive (17) Given below is a proposed operational paragraph for the directive if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider those targets. "Monetary Aggregates" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. (18) Should the Committee desire to place main emphasis on bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought. Three alternative "money market" direc- tives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions -11{DEL: consistent with moderate IMMEDIATELY ahead, monetary in growth aggregates] over the period PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve] MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates]over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates]over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. APPENDIX A Comparison of Actual and Targeted Reserves The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the four-week period ending November 17 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting. / Targeted Nonborrowed reserves 34,601 34,362 239 Required reserves 34,462 34,134 328 139 228 -89 Actual 1. (2+3) 2. 3. (4-5) Free reserves Differences 4. Excess reserves 241 263 -22 5. Member bank borrowing 102 35 67 34,703 34,397 306 82,660 83,023 -363 117,363 117,420 6. 7. 8. (1+5) Total reserves Currency (6+7) Monetary base 57 As can be seen from the table, actual nonborrowed reserves were $240 million higher than the "targeted" level. Required reserves were about $330 million above expectations as deposits subject to reserves turned out to be significantly higher than expected. The Desk did not have to increase nonborrowed reserves by quite that amount to keep the funds rate unchanged because banks' demand for free reserves was lower than expected. Total reserves were also higher than expected. But the monetary base was near the targeted level, as currency expanded less than expected. 1/ Includes week of November 17, which is partly estimated. Appendix Table I Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Change from average of previous 4-week period ($ million) Average of 5 weeks Nov. 24 to Dec. 22 ($ million) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 34,53 7 Alt. B Alt. C 3.1 2.1 0.5 Alt. A -45 6 5 -13 -31 34,645 4 -30 -58 2.1 1.5 1.0 118,183 118,155 854 820 792 7.8 7.5 7.4 118,126 118,047 918 865 786 8.0 7.7 7.4 38 57 108 246 228 8) 21 0 34,707 34,673 Monetary base1/ 118,217 Nonborrowed monetary base 118,179 Excess reserves Alt. C -64 34,616 Member bank borrowing 68 Alt. B 15 34,669 Nonborrowed reserves Alt. A 2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for Nov.-Dec. -64 Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves 1/ 1/ Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks. Appendix Table II Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 5k 41 5 5 5k 5 QII 51 56 5k QIII 64 6 5k 1976 QIV 1977 QI Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) M Q M Q 10.3 I 3.6 7.4 7.3 9.2 8.4 II 10.1 6.4 9.9 8.2 9.8 8.5 1.8 5.5 6.3 7.9 6.1 7.8 7.8 5.1 9.0 9.9 8.4 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.0 6.2 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 1974 I 5.3 6.0 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.9 II 5.3 5.6 6.9 7.4 5.7 6.5 III 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 IV 4.7 4.0 6.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.7 5.0 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 1975 I 1.4 0.6 6.9 5.6 9.0 7.5 II 9.7 7.4 12.5 10.2 14.5 12.6 III 3.6 7.1 6.5 10.1 10.7 13.3 IV 1.6 2.3 7.0 6.4 QIV '74-QIV '75 4.1 4.4 8.5 8.3 11.3 11.1 I 4.5 2.7 11.0 9.7 12.3 11.2 II 6.8 8.4 9.3 10.8 11.0 12.0 III 4.1 4.1 10.3 9.2 13.1 11.6 1973 IV 1976 10.5 9.3 9.4 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 11/12/76 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 ANHV 300 280 I i I jli/ . . ... i I1i 1 i1 I1 1 i1 I1 1 I 1 [ 0 BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 1976 J A S 1976 0 N CHART 2 11/12/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -540 520 500 I 1 I I RESERVES I I o BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 37 35 35 TO TA L NONBORROWED 33 1975 1976 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios. CHART 3 11/12/76 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT -8 INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT 10 F.R. DISCOUNT RATE _J RESERVES 1975 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -1 2 1976 1975 1976 1975 1976 Table 1 MONETARY AGGREGATES NOV. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 12, 1976 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Period Narrow (Ml) Broad (M2) Adjusted Credit Proxy Total U.S. Govt. Deposits Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 522.5 523.5 (528.8) (532.7) 13.8 13.1 ( 14.0) ( 12.5) 468.7 472.5 (477.9) (483.0) 404.4 410.1 (415.9) (422.1) 184.4 187.9 (192.5) (196.4) 220.0 222.2 (223.3) (225.6) 64.4 62.4 ( 62.0) ( 60.9) Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD'S T l Savings Other _Nondeposit CD' M ker Sources of U.S.Govt. Deposits Funds 10 11 8.9 8.2 9.0) 8.7) 3.9 3.8 3.55 4.2 MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 306.4 306.3 (310.0) (311.2) 1976-AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. X ANNUAL 710.8 716.4 (725.9) (733.2) ( ( ( ( GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4.5 6.8 4.1 11.0 9.3 10.3 1.2 4.9 0.9 4.6 7.3 5.7 16.0 11.3 15.0 32.4 13.6 19.0 3.6 9.5 11.7 -46.8 -14.2 -46.5 2.7 8.4 4.1 9.7 10.8 9.2 2.3 2.4 3.8 7.2 5.3 7.1 15.3 12.5 13.2 28.3 21.7 13.4 5.6 5.1 12.7 -29.3 -30.6 -26.2 -2.5 2.3 12.1) 8.9) ( ( -3.3 9.7 13.7) 12.8) ( ( 12.0 16.9 17.0) 17.9) ( ( 21.9 22.8 29.4) 24.31 ( ( 3.8 12.0 5.9) 12.4) -89.7 -37.3 ( -7.7) 1 -21.3) 10.5) 1 13.3) ( 17.6) ( 27.1) ( 9.2) ( -14.4) OUARTERLY-AV 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. MONTHLY 1976--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OCT.-NOV. ( 5.9 -0.4 14.5) 4.6) ( ( 9.2 9.5 15.9) ( 12.1) 1 ( 9.6) 1 14.1) ( WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976-0CT. NOV. NOTE: 1/ P - 6 13 20 27 3 P 310.0 310.8 308.7 310.4 723.8 725.7 724.4 727.7 528.9 527.1 529.2 529.6 13.0 13.8 15.6 14.2 476.5 477.3 477.7 478.6 413.8 414.9 415.7 417.3 191.0 192.0 192.4 193.5 222.8 222.9 223.3 223.8 62.7 62.4 62.0 61.4 8.4 8.6 9.2 9.4 3.1 3.2 4.0 3.5 310.6 729.3 532.1 14.9 480.0 418.7 194.5 224.2 61.3 9.5 4.0 DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 NOV. BANK RESERVES 12, 1976 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves REQUIRED RESERVES Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits 1 Gov't. and Interbank 6 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1976--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. 34,424 34,298 (34,398) (34,766) 34,524 34,360 (34,492) (34,832) 115,770 116,201 (116,888) (117,835) 20,166 20,153 (20,131) (20,310) 34,317 34,159 134,266) 134,582) 11,797 11,653 (11,698) (11734) 2,355 2.352 I 2,437) I 2,537) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 3.9 0.3 -5.3 3.1 1.0 4.6 8.8 5.4 -5.7 4.0 0.4 -3.8 0.8 3.0 -3.2 0.5 3.0 5.3 8.5 6.0 -3.6 1.2 2.8 -6.2 -11.0 -1.0 -6.4 QUARTERLY-AV 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. -1.0 4.2 3.6 -6.5 -4.4 -0.8 12.9 -20.6 -14.6 ( 4.6) ( 3.71 MONTHLY 1976--AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. OCT.-NOV. ( ( 4.8 -5.7 4.6) 11.8) 6.0 -4.4 S 3.5) S12.8) 6.5 4.5 7.1) 9.71 5.8 -5.5 S 3.8) ( 11.1) 1 8.2) S 8.2) 8.4) ( -0.8 -1.3) 10.71 4.7) 7.4) ( 4.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1976-OCT. NOV. 6 13 20 27 34,570 34,033 34,766 34,369 34t469 33,986 34,718 34,249 116,959 116,344 117,159 116,688 34,236 33,821 34,667 34,223 20,021 19,804 20,353 20,274 11,668 11,695 11,715 11,701 2,547 3 10 34,914 34,487 34,712 34,436 117,609 117,127 341466 34,428 20,228 11,712 11,710 2,526 2,462 I NOTE: & 20,257 _____________I RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. _____________ L CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. 2,321 2e598 2,247 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC NOVEMBER 12, 1976 TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period Within 1-year 1 - 5 Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 10 5 - 10 Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Total Within 1-year 1 - 5 5 - 10 Over 10 Total Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ Net RP's 6/ 1972 1973 -490 7,232 87 207 789 579 539 500 167 129 1,582 1,415 46 120 592 400 253 244 168 101 1,059 864 1,631 9,273 -1,358 -46 1974 1975 1,280 -468 320 337 797 3,284 434 1,510 196 1,070 1,747 6,202 439 191 1,665 824 659 460 318 138 3,082 1,613 6,303 7,267 -154 1,272 1975--Qtr. III Qtr. IV -757 1,294 13 74 712 385 201 234 171 315 1,096 1,006 64 58 514 141 106 71 63 14 747 284 1,060 2,626 2,392 -1,403 1976-Qtr. I Qtr. II -363 2,067 115 109 554 796 226 245 156 134 1,052 1,284 102 3 288 140 108 57 38 40 535 240 1,022 3,371 1,256 1,654 45 171 881 345 160 1,557 -- -- - - -- 1,398 392 -292 1,845 83 617 195 96 -990 140 - 57 -- 40 -- 240 -- -122 2,735 -958 1,351 -2,000 1,100 954 42 129 301 580 -72 272 -65 95 -480 1,077 ---- -- --- -- -2,040 1,484 1,954 -2,334 2,093 633 - - - - - -- - Qtr. III 1976--May June July Aug. Sept. 418 Oct. 1976--Sept. Oct. Nov. 3 -- 409 -1,742 1 -171 -- -- - -- - -- - - - -- -186 2,002 8 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -5,731 15 22 29 372 549 39 - -340 - -188 -- 54 -- -621 -- - -- --- - --- -34 973 535 -3,133 6,565 4,670 6 13 20 27 204 255 364 - 90 - 240 --- 85 --- 41 --- 456 ---- - ----- -- -- ---- 648 255 363 -3 -13,110 10,061 -2,158 -1,797 3 10 -200 -535 - -- --- -- --- - --- -- - -- -199 -535 3,597 -4,105 17 24 -- Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includeschanges in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). 1/ 2/ CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC NOVEMBER 12, 1976 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period Bills Coupon Issues (1) (2) 1975--High Low 7,029 1,586 2,845 253 1976-High Low 6,569 3,668 *2,117 175 1975--Oct. Nov. Dec. 5,766 4,751 4,822 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds (3) (4) Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** Reserves (5) Total I Seasonal (7) (6) I 8 New York I 38 Others (8) (9) -7,387 -1,757 -11,632 - 7,207 655 -180 -8,037 -2,367 -12,660 1,480 2,073 1,075 161 251 265 -2,644 -3,812 -2,811 - 9,202 4,959 5,214 5,910 1,220 1,051 778 232 256 223 -3,581 -4,138 -4,726 - 9,746 -10,015 - 9,640 Apr. May June 5,750 4,239 4,996 605 591 582 155 210 214 -5,179 -4,402 -4,219 - 8,151 - 9,158 July Aug. Sept. 5,743 6,174 7,838 904 1,686 1,509 234 207 205 -4,756 -4,624 -5,703 - 9,399 - 9,691 - 9,716 *6,271 *1,832 226p 15 22 29 7,539 7,932 7,628 8,569 7,520 1,568 1,705 1,613 1,447 1,152 6 13 20 27 7,020 5,549 *5,740 *6,254 1,896 2,117 *1,893 *1,653 1976--Sept. 1 8 Oct. 94 p 32p 6 - 6,908 -10,159 -10,418 -10,783 - ,514p -in,500p 290 273 259 42 199 -5,165 -7,075 -5,965 -4,498 -5,357 - 8,016D - 9,647 334 212 121p 146p -6,718 -7,911 -5,813 -5,098 - 3 8 -11,668 -10,474 - 7,737 9,037 -11,640 -10,835 -10,484 -10,132p 7p -5,7 0p 202p 417p 253 *1,355 165 *6,106 3 74 na na na na na 20p 240p *2,9 p-*7,556p10 17 24 NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. Nov. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. 1/ Weekly averages from daily data through Tuesday (Wednesday data are not yet available). STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC NOVEMBER 12, 1976 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per cent) 90-Day (2) Short-Term 90-119 Day Commercial Paper 1-Year (4) (3) 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 7.31 5.46 5.58 4.70 5.53 4.73 6.32 5.06 Treasury Bills Federal Funds (1) Period 1975--High Low 1976--High Low 7.75 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 9.95 8.78 9.10 7.93 5.90 5.00 5.63 4.75 5.75 4.88 8.95 8.15 8.94 8.20 9.20 8.67 8.45 7.89 6.35 5.78 5.88 6.08 5.69 5.65 6.45 6.03 5.83 9.45 9.20 9.36 9.43 9.26 9.21 9.80 9.80 9.31 8.87 8.50 8.56 5.15 5.13 5.25 4.91 4.84 5.05 5.03 5.06 5.20 8.70 8.63 8.62 8.79 8.63 8.61 9.10 9.06 9.05 8.37 8.29 8.30 5.54 5.98 6.12 5.08 5.44 5.83 4.81 5.25 5.55 4.94 5.38 5.68 8.48 8.82 8.72 8.52 8.77 8.73 8.89 9.09 9.13 8.10 8.33 8.35 5.54 5.35 5.33 5.30 5.23 5.11 5.42 5.31 5.24 8.63 8.52 8.29 8.63 8.50 8.33 9.05 8.99 8.88 8.37 8.30 8.10 4.90 5.04 8.26 8.24 5.10 5.13 5.13 5.10 5.10 5.22 5.25 5.30 5.20 5.23 8.38 8.28 8.28 8.23 8.29 8.38 8.35 8.30 8.29 8.29 5.10 4.88 4.83 4.80 5.20 5.00 4.91 5.05 8.26 8.15 8.28 8.29 8.23 8.20 8.25 8.27 8.80 8.06 7.96 7.89 8.02 4.85 na 5.03 na -8.31p 8.23 27 8. p Mar. Apr. May June 4.82 5.29 5.48 4.86 5.20 5.41 July Aug. Sept. 5.31 5.23 5.82 5.29 5.14 5.64 5.25 5.08 5.50 Oct. 5.03 4.92 5.19 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 5.17 5.02 4.97 4.99 5.07 4.94 4.82 4.89 5.39 5.18 5.06 5.18 3 10 17 24 5.06 4.98 4.87 4.87 5.16 5.16 5.00 5.08 4 5.03 5.07 4.79 4.92 5.07 5.18 5.00 5.13 10 GNMA uaranteed Securities (12) 7.88 5.25 Dec. Daily--Nov. FNMA Auction Yield (11) 8.43 5.38 1976-Jan. Feb. Nov. Long-Term U.S. Govt. 20Yr. Constant Maturity) (10) 90-Day (6) Nov. Oct. _Municipal Aaa Utility Bond Recently New Buyer Issue Offered (9) (7) (8) 60-Day (5) 1975--Oct. 1976--Sept. CD's New Issue-NYC 8.70 7.70 7.76p NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FRA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE l-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES S BANK RESERVES Y NOV. 12, 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES Total Period N Total Adi. on borrowed ontary Base Credit proxy 2 3 6.7 7.1 -0.4 6.0 9.2 1.3 7.7 9.2 5.8 1 0.5 10.2 3.9 1SI HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 -1.2 0.3 1.7 0.9 5.6 5.7 4.5 3.1 1ST HALF 1976 -1.2 -1.2 6.7 1 Loans and investments M1 M M4 M5 M6 M7 10 11 12 2 4 5 6 (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY 1973 1974 1975 13.8 6.0 8 8.8 6.8 11.3 11.6 10.6 6.4 10.6 9.0 9.7 11.1 8.9 10.0 11.9 8.9 9.7 4.2 4.5 5.6 2.6 9.8 6.8 11.9 10.1 6.9 5.7 9.9 9.2 9.5 10.0 9.4 9.5 3.1 4.9 5.7 10.3 11.8 5.9 8.9 8.3 9.3 8.4 4.6 7.1 5.0 9.2 4.4 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 8.6 QUARTERLY: 1975 1.4 4.5 7.3 7.0 4.6 1.6 7.0 1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976 -6.2 3.9 0.3 -5.3 3.1 1.0 4.6 8.8 5.4 1.2 4.9 0.9 5.5 4.3 7.0 4.5 6.8 4.1 11.0 9.3 10.3 12.3 11.0 13.1 47H QTR. 1975 0.6 2.7 5.6 6.0 6.0 2.3 6.4 9.4 1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976 -3.8 0.8 3.0 -3.2 0.5 3.0 5.3 8.5 6.0 2.3 2.4 3.8 3.8 5.4 5.9 2.7 8.4 4.1 9.7 10.8 9.2 -6.3 9.7 0.8 0.8 14.3 -1.6 3.6 11.1 7.0 5.9 14.4 0.7 6.4 9.8 -2.3 -0.8 9.0 -3.2 -8.4 -6.9 -0.8 1.1 1.5 6.6 1.6 6.0 -4.4 3.5 2.6 4.0 7.0 12.2 7.0 6.9 5.2 6.5 4.5 7.1 -0.7 3.5 0.9 3.0 3.5 5.9 6.9 5.4 5.4 2.1 6.9 8.2 5.9 12.2 1.2 6.1 6.1 14.9 6.8 -1.2 6.7 5.9 -0.4 14.5 4TH QTR. 11.3 11.3 8.1 9.4 9.7 7.4 9.0 8.4 7.4 9.5 8.3 6.7 9.4 9.9 11.2 12.0 11.6 5.4 6.6 5.9 8.4 9.3 9.4 8.5 8.7 8.5 5.3 11.5 4.0 8.7 11.9 7.1 7.9 11.7 5.3 9.9 10.3 14.3 8.9 10.1 10.3 14.1 8.3 11.6 14.4 10.5 14.4 3.2 6.6 3.8 6.9 7.9 7.4 11.0 6.2 9.7 10.0 5.7 9.3 13.5 6.9 7,8 7.5 11.2 6.9 10.2 10.1 5.5 9.2 13.2 10.0 QUARTERLY-AVt MONTHLY: 1975-OCT. NOV. DEC. -10.2 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. P -6.8 -1.7 0.7 4.0 7.0 1.8 4.8 -5.7 4.6 1/ P - 16.3 3.0 -2.5 2.3 12.1 14 .4 8.5 4.8 11.9 9.2 9.5 15.9 Ui a U U ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY i NOTES: -4.6 * 10.5 7.7 13.0 12.7 13.3 16.4 10.3 2.7 8.2 9.0 0.3 5.7 14.0 12.1 7.7 7.0 9.5 7.7 11.8 6.6 9.7 11.1 7.1 10.7 15.2 I a aI TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANK- 14.3 9.1 APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES NOV. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK RESERVES BANK CREDIT MEASURES U Period Total 1 Nonborrowed Monetary Base Adl Credit proxy 2 3 4 12, 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES Total Loans and Investments M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ANNUALLY: 32,390 34,693 34,539 31,092 33,966 34,409 96,051 104,892 110,910 449.4 495.3 514.4 637.7 695.2 725.5 270.5 283.1 294.8 571.4 612.4 664.3 919.5 981.6 1092.9 634.9 702.2 747.2 982.9 1071.4 1175.8 1093.7 1191.0 1310.3 1132.0 1232.7 1351.9 1975-OCT. NOV. DEC. 34,239 34,515 34,539 34,048 34,455 34,409 109,279 110s287 110,930 508.0 514.1 514.4 721.0 726.9 725.5 293.4 295.6 294.8 655.8 662.1 664.3 1075.8 1086.5 1092.9 736.7 743.9 747.2 1156.6 1168.3 1175.8 1285.3 1300.6 1310.3 1325.9 1341.7 1351.9 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. 34,245 34,052 34,003 34,167 33,971 33,949 1119171 111,538 112,192 514.1 515.6 516.0 727.6 731.2 735.4 295.1 296.6 298.1 670.0 677.9 682.6 1103.5 1116.7 1126.5 749.2 753.3 755.7 1182.7 1192.1 1199.7 1317.8 1326.5 1334.7 1359.7 1368.5 1377.0 APR. MAY JUNE 34,024 34,136 34,335 33,980 34,022 34,209 113,333 113,994 114,653 517.3 515.3 522.3 738.7 742.0 743.3 301.8 303.5 303.2 690.8 695.7 698.5 1140.0 1150.0 1157.4 762.2 763.9 769.1 1211.5 1218.2 1228.0 1346.9 1353.9 1364.8 1389.8 1397.6 1409.7 JULY AUG. SEPT. 34,387 34,524 34,360 34,254 34,424 34,298 115,151 115,770 116,201 523.6 522.5 523.5 747.6 752.7 756.4 304.9 306.4 306.3 705.4 710.8 716.4 1169.9 1182.3 1195.4 774.9 775.1 778.8 1239.4 1246.7 1257.8 1376.2 1382.7 1393.4 1421.6 1428.1 1439.0 P 34,492 34,398 116,888 528.8 764.1 310.0 725.9 1211.7 787.9 1273.7 1409.1 1454.8 8 15 22 29 34,278 34,467 34,045 34,599 349233 34,406 34,001 34,512 115,785 116,289 115,987 116,688 521.5 524.1 524.6 522.6 304.4 309.1 305.9 304.8 712.7 718.7 716.8 716.6 775.1 780.7 779.1 779.4 6 13 34,570 34,033 34,469 33,986 116,959 116,344 528.9 527.1 310.0 310.8 723.8 725.7 786.5 788.1 20 27P 34,766 34,369 349718 34,249 117,159 116,688 529.2 529.6 308.7 310.4 724.4 727.7 786.3 789.0 3P 34,914 34,712 117,609 532.1 310.6 729.3 790.6 1973 1974 1975 MONTHLY: OCT. WEEKLY: 1976-SEPT. OCT. NOV. ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, Mb, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. TION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY NOTES: NOV. 12, 1976 APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period SSavings Demand Deposits Currenc epi Currency 2 1 Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CDs Total TTotal 3 4 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 8.1 10.2 8.7 5.3 3.0 2.6 16.2 15.0 7.9 CD's MutualShortTer Credit Bank & Union S&L Shares SharesV Other Savings 8 7 6 5 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 11.4 9.4 12.2 2.8 7.0 17.8 18.7 11.2 8.2 S h o r t T e r Commercial U.S.Gov't oaer-I Securities aper Sa Vinds Bon Ut 12 9 10 11 8.5 5.6 15.8 13.8 12.1 20.2 4.9 4.8 6.2 31.3 11.9 19.5 39.3 9.1 -0.5 -12.7 -2.9 15.2 15.2 20.9 17.6 5.7 6.5 6.7 31.3 5.7 -6.5 -9.7 14.0 16.6 6.3 0.3 15.9 45.6 41.4 -7.7 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1975 1975 9.4 7.6 4.4 0.9 7.8 7.8 13.4 10.4 18.2 16.0 10.0 6.1 IST HALF 1976 10,6 4.2 6.0 13.9 23.6 6.6 12.9 11.6 15.8 6.2 19.2 12.5 17.6 6.0 41.3 -46.8 -14.2 -46.5 14.3 13.2 17.6 16.8 16.1 16.6 6.5 -3.6 4.2 -14.2 QUARTERLY: 11.9 4TH QTR. 1975 9.4 -1.1 IST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 1976 1976 1976 10.9 10.0 7.7 2.5 5.8 2.8 4.6 7.3 5.7 16.0 11.3 15.0 32.4 13.6 19.0 3.6 9.5 11.7 1975 8.4 0.2 9.7 9.8 14.4 6.6 9.5 14.0 16.5 6.1 23.5 -1.0 1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976 9.8 11.7 7.3 0.5 7.4 2.8 7.2 5.3 7.1 15.3 12.5 13.2 28.3 5.6 21.7 13.4 5.1 12.7 -29.3 -30.6 -26.2 13.4 13.8 15.4 17.1 16.4 15.7 6.6 5.9 7.5 12.3 0.0 9.7 17.1 14.6 10.7 11.7 13.6 10.1 14.6 20.5 10.0 12.8 1.7 27.3 13.4 16.1 13.5 12.4 11.3 18.8 14.8 18.3 7.3 5.4 5.4 17.2 20.5 9.8 14.0 10.2 9.5 15.5 26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 29.4 10.3 2.3 -1.7 8.0 3.4 16.9 18.9 3.8 12.0 5.9 -53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -27.9 -55.4 42.2 -17.0 -89.7 -37.3 -7.7 13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.7 14.5 18.8 18.8 17.1 18.0 10.7 21.1 13.8 13.7 20.3 10.0 19.8 19.5 12.8 7.1 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 5.2 8.7 10.3 3.4 5.1 5.9 7.5 7.7 23.6 6.2 QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH QTR. -6.0 MONTHLY: 1975-OCT. NOV. DEC. 10.0 13.2 4.9 -4.3 7.1 -5.9 13.7 13.5 11.0 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. P 8.1 12.9 11.2 15.9 9.4 4.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 10.6 -0.5 3.8 4.3 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.4 5.3 -3.2 15.8 4.5 6.9 2.4 7.3 0.0 14.3 10.6 -3.3 9.7 13.7 - If P - - i i ___________________ 12.0 16.9 17.0 __ I GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. I DERIVED BY AVERAGING A END OF CURRENT 21.6 63.8 34.9 3.6 -19.6 5.4 0.0 0.0 12.6 -7.1 -25.1 -11.0 -9.2 1 MONTH AND END OF h 3.0 17.8 14.6 8.7 5.7 8.6 17.0 25.1 27.3 13.4 0.0 5.3 2.6 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B NOV. 12, 1976 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency Demand Period Deposits Time and Saings Deposits Mutuaj Tim. and Savings Deposits S Other Thn CD's Total ____Total 1 2 3 4 Savings 5 CD & S&L Union Shares Term Savings SharesY Other 6 svins Credit Bank 7 8 Total Short- U.S. Com- Non. mercial Deposit Total Gov't unds Demand Sec os 13 14 Gov't Paper 9 10 11 12 ANNUALLY: 173.6 I 193.1 63.5 89.8 82.9 323.5 341.6 395.5 24.7 27.7 33.3 60.4 63.3 67.2 50.3 56.3 67.3 38.3 41.8 41.6 7.3 5.6 7.6 387.8 391.8 209.0 80.9 81.8 82.9 32.4 32.8 33.3 66.6 66.9 67.2 62.1 65.4 67.3 40.5 41.1 41.6 8.6 9.6 7.6 164.1 170.2 173.5 210.8 211.2 210.9 79.2 75.4 73.2 399.9 33.8 34.1 34.7 67.6 68.0 68.3 67.5 66.4 66.7 41.9 42.1 8.0 10.9 10.9 388.9 392.2 395.3 176.7 179.4 179.4 212.3 212.9 215.9 71.5 68.2 70.6 414.4 419.0 423.1 35.1 35.5 36.1 68.6 69.0 69.3 66.7 66.7 67.4 43.0 43.9 44.9 7.Z 7.4 9.8 468.7 472.5 400.4 404.4 410.1 181.1 184.4 187.9 219.3 220.0 222.2 69.6 64.4 62.4 428.2 434.9 441.7 36.4 37.0 37.6 69.8 70.4 70.6 67.0 65.6 65.0 45.4 45.4 45.6 9.0 13.8 13.1 230.2 477.9 415.9 192.5 223.3 62.0 448.0 38.0 70.9 64.5 45.7 14.0 79.0 79.0 79.2 79.3 225.4 230.0 226.7 225.6 470.7 408.3 409.7 410.9 411.7 186.8 187.5 188.2 189.1 221.5 222.1 222.7 222.6 62.4 62.0 62.2 62.9 16.0 10.0 1,.7 6 13 20 27P 79.9 79.7 79.6 79.5 230.1 231.1 229.0 230.9 476.5 477.3 477.7 478.6 413.8 414.9 415.7 417.3 191.0 192.0 192.4 193.5 222.8 222.9 223.3 223.8 62.7 62.4 62.0 61.4 13.0 13.8 15.6 14.2 3P 79.9 230.6 480.0 418.7 194.5 224.2 61.3 14.9 73.7 209.0 215.3 221.0 364.4 419.1 452.4 300.9 329.3 369.6 127.3 136.2 160.5 72.6 73.4 73.7 220.8 222.1 221.0 443.3 448.3 452.4 362.4 366.5 369.6 155.9 157.8 160.5 206.5 208.7 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. 74.2 75.7 220.9 221.6 222.4 454.1 456.7 457.6 374.9 381.3 384.4 APR. MAY JUNE 76.7 77.3 77.6 225.2 226.2 225.6 460.4 JULY AUG. SEPT. 78.1 78.6 79.1 226.8 227.8 227.2 470.0 P 79.8 8 15 22 29 61.5 1973 1974 1975 67.8 209.0 MONTHLY 1975-OCT. NOV. DEC. OCT. 75.0 460.4 465.9 395.5 404.8 409.6 42.4 WEEKLY: 1976-SEPT. OCT. NOV. 1/ 2/ P - 471.7 473.1 474.6 ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS A1 MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY AND END OF PREVIOUS HONTH REPORTED DATA. 

Federal Reserve (1976, November 15). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19761116

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19761116,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Nov},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19761116},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}