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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC October 15, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC October 15, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 remained essentially unchanged in September, but appears to be increasing at a relatively rapid rate in October. For the two months combined its growth is now projected at about a 3.5 per cent annual rate, a shade below the low end of the Committee's 4 to 8 per cent operating range. However, expansion in bank time and savings deposits other than money market CD's has been substantially stronger than anticipated during both September and early October, so that growth in M 2 appears to be running above the mid-point of its range. Deposit inflows at nonbank thrift institutions have continued at an unusually high rate. Growth in Monetary Aggregatesl/ over September-October Period(SAAR in per cent) Ranges M1 4 to 8 M2 8 to 12 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) Latest Estimates 3.5 11.2 Avg. for statement week ending Sept. 22 5.21 29 5.32 Oct. 6 5.17 13 5.02 1/ These figures do not incorporate the regular quarterly benchmark revision of monetary aggregates that will be published on Thursday, October 21. The revisions (based on the March call report) are generally quite small, however. The level of M1 for each month of this year was revised up no more than $100 million, and quarterly growth rates for M1 for the first three quarters of the year hardly changed. The level of M 2 , however, was revised downward more substantially and its quarterly growth rates were lowered by about 1/2 percentage point. All tables on subsequent pages of this report (with the exception of tables 1 and 2 following the charts) are based on the new series. The new and old series are compared in Appendix Table IV. (2) Despite expansion of M1 and M 2 in the September-October period, nonborrowed reserves appear to be showing little net change over 2/ that time.2/ This divergent behavior in part reflects the effect of lagged reserve requirements. In addition, total demand deposits at banks (includ- ing Government and interbank) are declining somewhat on balance, releasing reserves to support expansion in time and savings deposits. (3) In the week immediately following the September Committee meeting, incoming data suggested that growth in M1 and M 2 would be well within the Committee's two-month ranges. Accordingly, the Desk continued to aim at a Federal funds rate of 5-1/4 per cent. In the following two statement weeks, however, new data indicated a weakening in demand deposit flows. As a result, the projected 2-month growth rate for M was lowered to below Committee's range but M2 remained around the mid-point. The Desk responded by gradually lowering its Federal funds rate objective to the 5 per cent currently prevailing. (4) Short-term interest rates have dropped 10 to 35 basis points since the September Committee meeting, while yields on Treasury issues in the 2 to 4 year maturity range have dropped 50 basis points. This flatten- ing of the yield curve in part may reflect market expectations of less upward interest rate pressure for some time ahead. In the bond area, yields have declined 5 to 25 basis points over the past four weeks. The reduced average level of market rates resulted from the easing in money 2/ Appendix A contains a discussion of the actual behavior of nonborrowed reserves in the weeks between the September and October meetings relative to the behavior that was expected to be consistent with the Committee's short-run ranges for monetary growth. -3market conditions brought about by Desk operations, from weak M1 data published for late September, and from widely publicized downward revisions in market forecasts of economic growth over the next several quarters. The unfavorable economic news has apparently also dampened enthusiasm in the stock market, resulting in a substantial decline in stock prices. (5) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percent- age annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Past Calendar Twelve Year Months Six Past Three Past Months Months Month Sept.'76 Sept.'76 Sept.'76 Sept.'76 1975 over Sept.'75 over Mar.'76 over June '76 over Aug. '76 Nonborrowed reserves 1.3 0.8 2.1 1.1 -4.3 Total reserves -.4 -0.2 2.1 0.3 -5.6 Monetary Base 5.8 6.7 7.1 5.4 4.5 4.1 4.3 5.5 4.1 -0.4 8.5 9.7 9.9 10.3 9.5 11.3 11.9 12.2 13.1 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 6.4 6.4 6.1 5.0 M 5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.6 Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 3.9 3.5 2.8 0.8 1.8 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 4.4 5.5 5.7 7.0 5.9 -.6 -1.4 -1.8 -2.7 -2.0 -.2 -- .1 -.4 -1.4 Concepts of Money (Revised Series) M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks ther than large CD's) M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 13.2 5.7 10.6 Bank Credit Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (6) Current longer-run growth ranges and three alternatives for Committee consideration are shown below. In keeping with usual procedures, the proposed longer-run ranges pertain to the one-year period from QIII '76 to QIII '77. (The current ranges relate to the QII '76-QII '77 period.) Current Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 4½-7 5½-8 4½-7 3½-6 M2 7½-9½ 10-12 8½-10½ 7½-9½ M3 9-11 11½-13½ 10-12 8½-10½ 5-8 6½-9½ 5½-8½ 5-8 Bank credit proxy (7) It appears that the longer-run relationship between M1 and the other monetary aggregates may be changing from earlier expectations. From the second to the third quarter of 1976 M1 grew at a 4 per cent annual rate--somewhat below the lower limit of the FOMC's longer-run range. How- ever, over that period M2 expanded at about a 9-1/4 per cent annual rate, close to the upper limit of its longer-run range, and M3 rose at a rate slightly above the upper end of its range. The staff had expected rela- tively rapid growth in M 2 and M3 in the third quarter. Growth in M1 over the third quarter was slower than anticipated, however, and interest rates somewhat lower. (8) The staff anticipates continued moderation in M relative to M2 and M3. growth In some part, this reflects an expectation that shifts from demand to savings deposits will be a little larger than the staff had earlier anticipated. In addition, in view of the less expansive economy now projected, market interest rates are expected to be under less upward -6pressure over the next few quarters than previously thought. Therefore, investors are likely to have a somewhat greater preference than earlier assumed for time and savings deposits relative to market instruments. (9) Under the circumstances, the three lettered alternatives incorporate a different relationship between M1 and the broader aggregates place. han is contained in the set of longer-run ranges currently in Under alternative C, the growth ranges for the broader monetary aggregates are about the same as those that now prevail, but the range for M1 is lower. Alternative B continues the current growth range for M1, but involves somewhat higher ranges for M2 and M3 . Alternative A-- which contemplates little change in interest rates over the next year-contains higher ranges for all of the monetary aggregates.1/ (10) Shorter-run specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate thought to be consistent with the proposed longer-run alternatives are summarized below. More detailed data--includ- ing one-year growth rates for the QII '76-QII '77 period as well as for the QIII '76-QIII '77 period--are shown in the tables on the following two pages. 1/ Levels of the monetary aggregates for QII '77 implied by growth from QII '76 at the mid-point of the ranges currently in place relate to the proposed alternatives in the following way. The implied QII '77 level for M1 is midway between alternatives A and B. For M2 and M3, the implied levels for QII '77 are best approximated by alternative C, after taking account of the downward revision in levels associated with the new benchmark revision. -6aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 M2 M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 September October November 306.3 308.3 309.9 306.3 308.3 309.7 306.3 308.3 309.5 716.4 723.3 730.4 716.4 723.3 729.4 716.4 723.3 728.6 1195.2 1208.9 1222.8 1195.2 1208.9 1221.2 1195.2 1208.9 1219.6 1976 QII QIII QIV 302.8 305.9 309.9 302.8 305.9 309.8 302.8 305.9 309.6 695.0 710.9 730.4 695.0 710.9 729.4 695.0 710.9 728.6 1149.1 1182.4 1222.8 1149.1 1182.4 1221.1 1149.1 1182.4 1219.2 1977 QI QII QIII 315.5 321.0 326.5 314.4 319.1 323.5 313.2 316.8 320.3 751.2 770.3 788.3 747.6 764.2 779.7 744.2 758.0 771.3 1262.0 1297.8 1331.7 1255.9 1286.3 1313.9 1247.2 1271.3 1294.6 7.8 6.2 7.8 5.4 7.8 4.7 11.6 11.8 11.6 10.1 11.6 8.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 12.2 13.8 10.6 11.6 12.4 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 October November Quarterly Average: 1976 QIII QIV 4.1 5.2 4.1 5.1 4.1 4.8 9.2 11.0 9.2 10.4 9.2 10.0 11.6 13.7 11.6 13.1 1977 QI QII QIII 7.2 7.0 6.9 5.9 6.0 5.5 4.7 4.6 4.4 11.4 10.2 9.3 10.0 8.9 8.1 8.6 7.4 7.0 12.8 11.3 10.4 11.4 9.7 8.6 9.2 7.7 7.3 Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77 4.7 7.2 4.6 6.0 4.5 4.7 10.2 10.9 9.9 9.5 9.7 8.1 12.8 12.3 12.5 10.7 12.2 8.5 Long-run QII '76-QII '77 QII '76-QIII '77 QIII '76-QIII '77 6.0 6.3 6.7 5.4 5.5 5.8 4.6 4.6 4.7 10.8 10.7 10.9 10.0 9.7 9.7 9.1 8.8 8.5 12.9 12.7 12.6 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.6 10.1 9.5 -6bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy M5 M4 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 September October November 778.8 785.4 792.3 778.8 785.4 791.2 778.8 785.4 790.5 1257.6 1271.0 1284.7 1257.6 1271.0 1283.0 1257.6 1271.0 1281.6 523.3 526.3 531.0 523.3 526.3 530.2 523.3 526.3 529.8 1976 QII QIII QIV 765.1 776.3 792.3 765.1 776.3 791.3 765.1 776.3 790.6 1219.2 1247.8 1284.7 1219.2 1247.8 1283.0 1219.2 1247.8 1281.3 518.3 523.1 530.2 518.3 523.1 529.5 518.3 523.1 529.1 1977 QI QII QIII 813.2 832.6 851.7 809.6 827.1 844.3 806.8 822.4 838.1 1324.0 1360.1 1395.1 1317.9 1349.2 1378.5 1309.8 1335.7 1361.3 542.2 552.4 565.4 539.8 548.9 560.8 538.2 546.2 557.3 10.2 10.5 10.2 8.9 12.8 12.9 12.8 11.3 12.8 10.0 6.9 10.7 6.9 8.9 6.9 8.0 QIII 5.9 5.9 5.9 9.4 9.4 9.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 QIV 8.2 7.7 7.4 11.8 11.3 10.7 5.4 4.9 4.6 QI 10.6 9.3 8.2 12.2 10.9 8.9 9.1 7.8 6.9 QII 9.5 8.6 7.7 10.9 9.5 7.9 7.5 6.7 5.9 QIII 9.2 8.3 7.6 10.3 8.7 7.7 9.4 8.7 8.1 7.1 10.2 6.8 9.0 6.7 8.0 10.7 11.7 10.5 10.3 10.2 8.5 4.6 8.4 4.3 7.3 4.2 6.5 8.8 9.1 9.7 8.1 8.3 8.8 7.5 7.6 8.0 11.6 11.5 11.8 10.7 10.5 10.5 9.6 9.3 9.1 6.6 7.3 8.1 5.9 6.6 7.2 5.4 6.0 6.5 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 October November 10.2 7.8 Quarterly Averages: 1976 1977 Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77 Long-run QII '76-QII '77 QII '76-QIII '77 QIII '76-QIII '77 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges for Oct.-Nov. M1 5-9 4½-8½ 4-8 M2 10-14 9-13 8-12 4-5 4½-5½ 5-6 Federal funds rate (Inter-meeting period) (11) Alternative B, which has a Federal funds rate range centered on 5 per cent, assumes that money market conditions remain unchanged between now and the next Committee meeting. Growth in M1 under this alternative is expected to accelerate into a 4-1/2 to 8-1/2 per cent annual rate range over the October-November period--in large part because of the substantial increase that has already occurred in early October. Moreover, nominal GNP is projected to expand at about an 11-1/2 per cent annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from an 8-1/2 per cent rate in the third, and this should strengthen transactions demands for money. Growth in M 2 is expected to remain quite large over the 2-month period, reflecting not only the projected rebound in M1 growth but also the expectation that net inflows into time and savings deposits (other than money market CD's) will continue large as market interest rates over the next few weeks remain low relative to offering rates on these deposits. (12) The staff would still expect interest rates to rise over the longer run under alternative B, given the projected pace of economic activity. However, we would now anticipate a Federal funds rate no higher than about 6 per cent by mid-'77 and perhaps rising to around 6-1/2 per cent later that year, as may be seen from Appendix Table II. This represents both more delayed, and less, interest rate pressure than anticipated earlier. M2 and M3 would, as a result, probably show somewhat more strength over the longer run relative to M1 than previously expected-although growth rates in the broader monetary aggregates would, of course, be expected to slacken over the next few quarters. Over the next few weeks, interest rates would be likely (13) to show little net change under alternative B. About $4 billion of pub- licly-held debt maturing on November 15 will need to be rolled over, and the Treasury may also take the opportunity to raise about $2-1/2 billion of new cash. Private credit demands in short-term markets, including demands at banks, are likely to remain quite moderate over the next few weeks. With banks expected to receive large inflows of funds from M2 deposits, they probably will permit CD's to run off somewhat further over the next few weeks and may also be substantial investors in intermediateand short-term issues offered in the Treasury refunding. Thus, interest rates in short- and intermediate-term market sectors are not likely to be under any pressure from market forces over the period immediately ahead. However, some upward pressure on private long-term rates may be generated if the Treasury offers a substantial amount of the new issues in the 10year and longer maturity area, given the existing relatively narrow spread between Treasury and corporate issues and the sizable forward calendar of corporate and State and local government bonds. (14) Alternative C involves a rise in the funds rate over the next few weeks to the 5-1/2 per cent mid-point of a 5-6 per cent range. -9Under those conditions, market interest rates would, of course, rise between now and the next Committee meeting. The increase might be fairly sharp since a sizable Treasury financing will be in process and since current dealer positions in Treasury securities remain substantial, although not quite as large as a month ago. Net inflows of funds to banks and thrift institutions through interest-bearing deposits, particularly savings deposits, would be constrained somewhat by such a move in the funds rate-which would probably be accompanied by a rise in the 3-month bill rate back to near 5-1/2 per cent. However, the net inflows of interest-bearing deposits would still remain ample, and banks and thrift institutions would not be likely to tighten non-price lending terms, even though the prime loan rate, and perhaps mortgage rates, might edge upwards. (15) Further increases in interest rates can be expected over the longer-run under alternative C, assuming M1 growth over the QIII '76 QIII '77 period is constrained to around 4-3/4 per cent. As shown in the appendix table, a funds rate as high as 7-3/4 per cent might develop by the fall of 1977. (16) Alternative A encompasses an easing of the money market between now and the next Committee meeting. Such an approach seems most consistent with an effort to raise longer-run growth rates from those currently in place. The contemplated 1/2 point reduction in the Federal funds rate in the near-term would lead to a significant decline in market rates-and also probably in the prime loan and primary mortgage rates--over the next few weeks. There would be some further increase in net inflows of -10interest-bearing deposits at banks and thrift institutions. As such inflows continued, and as market rates declined, it is likely that earnings experience would place these institutions under some pressure to reduce interest rates offered on deposits. However, no substantial reductions would be likely over the next few weeks. -11Proposed directive (17) Presented below are four alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive. The first three are couched in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead and are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. The fourth alternative is proposed in the event that the Committee wishes to formulate its instructions in terms of money market conditions and to maintain the conditions now prevailing. Alternative "Monetary Aggregates" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate]SUBSTANTIAL growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. -12Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: moderate]MODEST growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. "Money Market" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth in-monetary aggregates]over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. APPENDIX A Comparison of Actual and Targeted Reserves The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the four-week period ending October 20 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting. (2+3) (4-5) Actual1/ Targeted Differences Nonborrowed reserves 34,474 34,304 170 Required reserves 34,275 34,167 108 199 137 62 268 215 53 69 78 -9 34,543 34,382 161 Currency 82,286 82,422 -136 Monetary base 116,829 116,804 25 Free reserves Excess reserves Member bank borrowing (1+5) (6+7) Total reserves As can be seen from the table, actual nonborrowed reserves were $170 million higher than the "targeted" level. Banks held more free reserves than the staff expected, reflecting a slightly lower level of borrowing and greater demand for excess reserves by banks than anticipated. Meanwhile, actual required reserves were about $100 million above expectations as both the level of deposits, on a lagged basis, subject to reserves and the average reserve ratio against deposits turned out to be somewhat higher than expected. 1/ Includes week of October 20, which is partly estimated. A-2 Total reserves were also higher than expected. But the monetary base was only slightly above the targeted level, as currency growth was less than anticipated. Appendix Table I Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Change from average of previous 4-week period ($ million) Average of 4 weeks Oct. 27 to Nov. 17 ($ million) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B -111 34,362 34,326 34,26!5 -75 35 50 9(0 -34 263 241 22(0 34,397 34,376 34,355 Monetary base1/ 117,413 117,399 117,378 605 591 Nonborrowed monetary base 117,378 117,349 117,288 639 610 Nonborrowed reserves Member bank borrowing Excess reserves 32 -19 Alt. C -172 2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for Oct.-Nov. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 4.5 4.0 2.8 4.1 3.8 3.5 570 8.9 8.9 8.7 549 9.0 8.9 8.5 21 10 Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves -109 -130 -152 -_/ Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks. Appendix Table II Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 5-1/8 5 1976 QIV 4 1977 QI 4 QII QIII 5 6 5 5k 6 6 7k 7% Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) (Revised Series) M3 1973 M Q I 3.6 7.4 7.3 II 10.1 6.4 M Q 9.2 8.4 10.3 9.9 8.2 9.8 8.5 6.3 7.9 6.1 7.8 9.0 9.9 8.4 III 1.8 5.5 IV 7.8 5.1 10.5 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.0 6.2 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 I 5.3 6.0 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.9 II 5.3 5.6 6.9 7.4 5.7 6.5 III 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 IV 4.7 4.0 6.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.7 5.0 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 1975 I 1.4 0.6 6.9 5.6 9.0 7.5 II 9.7 7.4 12.5 10.2 14.5 12.6 III 3.6 7.1 6.5 10.1 10.7 13.3 IV 1.6 2.3 7.0 6.4 9.3 QIV '74-QIV '75 4.1 4.4 8.5 8.3 11.3 11.1 1976 I 4.5 2.7 11.0 9.7 12.3 11.2 II 6.8 8.4 9.3 10.8 10.9 12.1 III 4.1 4.1 10.3 9.2 13.1 11.6 1974 9.4 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. APPENDIX TABLE IV Comparison of Old and Revised Money Stock Growth Rates M1 Old 1976--January M2 Revised M3 Old Revised Old Revised 1.2 1.2 10.7 9.8 11.9 11.3 February 5.7 6.1 14.9 14.5 14.7 14.6 March 6.1 6.1 8.7 8.5 11.0 10.6 April 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.4 14.6 14.4 6.4 6.8 9.2 8.5 10.8 10.5 June -0.8 -1.2 5.3 4.8 8.0 July 6.7 6.7 12.5 11.9 13.3 13.0 August 5.9 5.9 9.8 9.0 13.2 12.7 -0.4 -0.4 10.1 9.6 13.5 13.2 1976--I 4.3 4.5 11.5 11.0 12.6 12.3 II 6.8 6.8 9.9 9.3 11.3 10.9 III 4.1 4.1 10.9 10.3 13.5 13.1 2.6 2.7 10.1 9.7 11.4 11.2 II 8.4 8.4 11.3 10.8 12.4 12.1 III 4.1 4.1 9.8 9.2 12.0 11.6 May September 7.6 .1/ Quarterly:- Quarterly average: 1976--1 1/ End-month-of-quarter to end-month-of-quarter CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 I I Ii I [i 10/15/76 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 320 i l i lI i i I~i BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M 2 720 710 700 1975 S 1976 10/15/76 CHART 2 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -540 J -520 -500 RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 37 - 35 TOTAL NONBORROWED - II 1975 33 o0 1976 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with ctarges in reserve requirement ratios. CHART 3 10/15/76 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET COiNDITIONS PERCENT - F.R. DISCOUNT RATE INTEREST RATES Short-term PERCENT 10 WEEKLY AVERAGES - 7 - INTEREST RATES I WEEKLY 9 FHA MORTGAGES FNMA MONDAY AUCTION EURO-DOLLARS 3-MONTH PRIME COMMERCIAL Aaa UTILIT) PAPER FEDERAL FUNDSJ RATE' - 5 J 4 NEW ISSUE MONTH7 I N4-6 . . 7 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S2 1975 1976 1975 1976 1975 1976 Table 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS MONETARY AGGREGATES OCT. 15, II-FOMC 1976 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (M2) (Ml) Period MONTHLY Adjusted Credit Proxy Total U.S. Govt. Deposits Tota 4 5 6 7 8 472.4 471.5 475.6 (480.7) 402.8 407.1 413.2 (418.5) 181.1 184.4 187.9 (191.9) 221.7 222.8 225.4 (226.7) 1 2 3 304.8 306.3 306.2 (308.1) 707.6 713.4 719.4 (726.7) 523.6 522.5 523.3 (526.3) Time and Savings Deposits Other Than C'S Oter Sav Total Nondeposit Member Sources of U.SGovt. Deposits Funds 9 10 11 8.8 2.7 3.9 3.8 3.3) LEVELS-$BIL 1976-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. ( 9.0 13.8 13.0 13.3) ( 69.6 64.4 62.4 62.2) ( 6.9 8.2 8.5) I I ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 4.3 6.8 4.1 11.5 9.9 10.9 1.2 4.9 0.8 5.4 8.2 6.6 17.1 12.4 16.0 32.4 13.6 19.0 5.6 11.3 13.8 -47.3 -13.7 -46.5 2.6 8.4 4.1 10.1 11.3 9.8 2.3 2.4 3.7 7.8 6.3 8.0 15.9 13.7 14.1 28.3 21.7 13.4 6.7 7.0 14.9 -29.3 -30.6 -26.2 ( 6.7 5.9 -0.4 7.4) ( 12.5 9.8 10.1 12.2) ( 3.0 -2.5 1.8 6.9) ( 11.5 -2.3 10.4 12.9) ( 16.6 12.8 18.0 15.4) ( 11.4 21.9 22.8 25.5) ( 20.9 6.0 14.0 6.9) -17.0 -89.7 -37.3 ( -3.8) ( 3.5) ( 11.2) ( 4.4) 1 11.7) ( 16.8) ( 24.4) ( 10.5) ( -20.5) 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. MONTHLY 1976-JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT.-OCT. WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976-SEPT. OCT. NOTE: 1/ P - 1 8 15 22 29 6 P 305.9 304.3 308.9 305.8 304.8 715.6 715.6 721.7 719.9 719.7 522.6 521.5 524.1 524.6 522.6 15.9 16.0 10.0 12.7 12.5 472.5 473.7 474.8 476.3 477.8 409.7 411.3 412.8 414.1 415.0 185.9 186.8 187.5 188.2 189.1 223.8 224.5 225.2 225.9 225.9 62.8 62.4 62.0 62.2 62.9 8.6 7.9 7.7 8.7 8.4 3.6 5.7 3.6 4.0 2.9 308.8 725.7 528.6 13.1 479.6 416.9 190.8 226.1 62.7 8.4 3.2 DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES OCT. ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period Total Reserves Monetary Base r Total Required 1976 RESERVES _REQUIRED Nonborrowed Reserves 15, Private Demand Total Time Deposits n-... . i_ Gov't. and Interbank .. MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1976--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT., PERCENT 34,254 34,424 34,302 (34,394) 34,387 34,524 34,364 (34,452) 115,150 115,769 116,202 (116,957) 34,152 34,317 34,160 134,207) 19,952 20,166 20,153 (20,060) 12,003 11,797 11,654 (11,687) 2,198 2,355 2,353 ( 2,460) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. -6.2 3.9 0.3 -5.3 3.1 1.1 4.6 8.8 5.4 -5.7 4.0 0.5 -2.0 6.0 4.0 -11.0 -1,0 -3.8 0.8 3.0 -3.2 0.5 3.0 5.3 8.5 6.0 -3.6 1.2 2.8 -1.0 4.2 3.6 -6.5 1-1 5.8 -5.5 .7) ( -0.1 12.9 -0.8 -5.5) ( 16.3 -20.6 -14.5 3.4) -1.9) -3.2) I -5.6) -6.4 QUARTERLY-AV 1976--IST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. -4.4 -0.8 MONTHLY 4.0 -5.6 ( 3.11 ( 1.6 6.0 -4.3 3.21 -1.3) I -0.5) 1.8 1976--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SEPT.-OCT. 1 I WEEKLY LEVELS-sMILLIONS 1976-SEPT. 1 15 22 29 OCT. 6 13 34,505 34,278 34,467 34,045 349608 34,412 34,233 34,406 34,001 34,520 115,817 115,785 116,288 115,987 116,703 34,215 34,005 34*208 34,003 34,406 20,248 20,115 20,239 19,788 20t475 11,686 11.659 11,652 11,645 11,652 2,281 2,231 2,317 2,571 2,279 34,644 34.035 34,542 33,998 116,913 116,191 34,230 33,829 20,021 19,847 11,668 11,649 2,541 2,334 I NOTEs i RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 15, 1976 TABLE 3 1/ NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period Within 1-year -490 7,232 1,280 -468 1975--Qtr. III Qtr. IV -757 1,294 1976--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III -363 2,067 45 1976--Apr. May June 513 -292 1,845 Net RP's 6/f 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 747 284 1,060 2,626 2,392 -1,403 1,022 3,371 1,398 1,256 1,654 392 990 758 -122 2,735 1,261 -958 1,351 480 1,077 -2,040 1,484 1,954 -2,334 2,093 633 Sept. Oct. 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 To .... 1 - 5 5 - 789 579 797 3,284 539 500 434 1,510 167 129 196 1,070 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 712 385 201 234 171 315 1,096 1,006 h -- Within 1-year r-- 64 58 514 141 106 71 63 14 1,052 1,284 1,557 294 -2,009 1,100 954 July Aug. Sept. 1976--Aug. 13 74 Over 10 592 400 1,665 824 Total 1- 0 Agencies Federal Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 15 5- 10 10 Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ -- -- - -- -- 72 301 -S- -- -- 39 340 188 - -- 90 240 85 - -- -- -- 57 - 40 -- -- --- S42 -- 140 65 -480 -- -- --- - - 54 -- 621 - - 41 456 - - - - -- -- -13 2,499 ---- 115 950 441 -8,081 8,359 -1,510 -- - - -- - -- -- --- -- -5,731 -34 -3,133 -- --- - --- 973 535 6,565 4,670 -- -- - -- 648 -13,110 - - - - 255 10,061 -- - - 186 2,002 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). 1/ 2/ 31 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 15, 1976 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period Bills (1) 7,029 1,586 1975--High Low *8,569 3,668 1976--High Low *2,117 175 249 34 Excess** Reserves (5) 804 -42 Total (6) 609 17 Seasonal (7) 8 New York (8) -7,387 -1,757 655 -180 242 24 7,075 -2,367 38 Others (9) -11,632 - 7,207 -2 ,660 - 6,908 588 122 191 397 -3,551 , 4015 1,480 2,073 1,075 123 173 103 161 251 265 189 60 130 -2,644 -3,812 -2,811 - 9,202 4,959 5,214 5,910 1,220 1,051 778 97 181 151 232 256 223 79 81 54 -3,581 - 9,746 -4,138 -4,726 -10,015 5,750 4,239 4,996 605 591 582 133 199 196 155 210 214 43 114 127 -5,179 -4,402 -4,219 -10,783 5,743 6,174 *7,838 904 1,686 *1,509 211 116 172 234 247p 209p 132 lOOp 69p -4,756 - 9,399 - 9,691 9 5 11 , p 4 11 18 25 6,201 6,103 5,478 5,856 977 2,060 1,960 1,602 107 101 167 89 436 -36 337 118 157 122 85 67 -3,598 -5,170 -4,575 -4,469 - 8,908 1 8 15 22 29 7,539 7,932 7,628 *8,569 *7,520 1,568 1,705 1,613 *1,447 *1,152 145 107 170 220 219 290 273 259 42 212 p -5,165 -7,075 -5,965 -4,498 -5,357 - 8,016 - 9,647 Dec. 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. July Aug. Sept, Oct. (2) 2,845 253 I 5,766 4,751 4,822 Oct. Nov. Sept. Issues Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit 5,008 1975--Sept. 1976--Aug. ICoupon Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds (3) (4) 389 48 6 13 20 27 *7,020 *5,549 *1,896 *2,117 205 210p 414p 206p 93 45 61 44 88p 102p 47p -4,624 7 -5, 90p 7 -6, 69p -8,037p -10,159 -10,418 - 9,640 - 8,151 - 9,158 -11,321 -10,744 - 8,941 -11,668 -10,474 - 7,737 - 9, 0 16p -11,417p NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL **Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CLASS II - FOMC OCTOBER 15, 1976 (FR) TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per cent) I Short-Term Treasury Bills 90-119 Day CD's New Issue-NYC Long-Term Aaa Utility Municipal 60-Day 90-Day (5) 7.88 5.25 (6) 7.75 5.38 (7) 9.80 8.89 (8) 9.71 9.06 7.67 6.27 8.63 7.63 5.90 5.00 5.63 4.75 5.75 4.88 8.95 8.16 8.94 8.20 7.13 6.25 8.17 7.64 7.20 6.79 6.44 6.81 9.68 9.57 7.44 5.96 5.48 5.44 6.48 6.07 6.16 6.35 5.78 5.88 6.08 5.69 5.65 6.45 6.03 5.83 9.45 9.20 9.36 9.43 9.26 9.21 4.87 4.77 4.84 4.87 4.88 5.00 5.44 5.53 5.82 5.15 5.13 5.25 4.91 4.84 5.05 5.03 5.06 5.20 8.70 8.63 8.62 Apr. May June 4.82 5.29 5.48 4.86 5.20 5.41 5.54 5.98 6.12 5.08 5.44 5.83 4.81 5.25 5.55 4.94 5.38 5.68 8.48 8.82 8.72 July Aug. Sept. 5.31 5.29 5.25 5.23 5.14 5.08 5.82 5.64 5.50 5.54 5.35 5.33 5.30 5.23 5.11 1976--Aug. 5.36 5.25 5.29 5.28 5.15 5.18 5.15 5.13 5.74 5.67 5.63 5.63 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.35 5.20 1 8 15 22 29 5.28 5.25 5.22 5.21 5.32 5.09 5.10 5.12 5.06 5.07 5.57 5.54 5.56 5.42 5.50 6 13 20 27 5.17 5.02 5.07 4.94 5.12 4.96 p 5.03 4.85 Period 90-Day 1-Year (1) (2) (3) 1975-High Low 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 7.31 5.46 1976-High Low 5.58 4.70 5.53 4.73 6.32 5.18 1975-Sept. 6.24 6.42 5.82 5.22 5.20 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. Sept. Oct. Daily-Oct. 7 14 Commercial Paer (4) Recently Offered Bond Buyer (9) U.S. Govt. New sue Federal Fuda 20- Yr. Constant Maturity) (10) FNMA Auction Yield GNMA Guaranteed Securities (11) 9.95 8.78 (12) 9.10 7.93 8.57 9.20 8.80 9.78 8.45 7.96 8.97 7.39 7.43 7.31 8.35 8.28 8.23 9.80 9.80 9.31 8.87 8.50 8.56 8.79 8.63 8.61 7.07 6.94 6.92 8.01 8.03 7.97 9.10 9.06 9.05 8.37 8.29 8.30 8.52 8.77 8.73 6.60 6.87 6.87 7.86 8.13 8.03 8.89 9.09 9.13 8.10 8.33 8.35 8.63 8.52 8.29 6.79 6.61 6.51 8.00 7.91 7.78 9.05 8.99 8.88 5.25 8.60 8.49 5.25 5.20 8.47 6.65 6.60 6.60 6.58 7.99 7.93 7.89 7.86 8.37 8.30 8.10 8.37 8.37 8.27 8.25 5.30 5.38 5.38 5.33 5.25 5.10 5.13 5.13 5.10 5.10 8.38 8.28 8.28 8.23 8.29 6.52 6.52 6.50 6.52 6.47 7.82 7.81 7.79 7.74 7.76 5.39 5.18 5.25 5.19 5.10 4.88 6.33 6.25 7.69 7 .64p 5.26 5.05 5.25 5.13 5.20 5.00 8.26 8.16p 8.23 8.20p 9.01 8.97 8.92 8.84 8.80 8.25 8.13 8.13 8.02 8.13 8.06 7.96 7.69 7.64(10/13) IOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown *re for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Colnas 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward conmitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on ortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FRA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES OCT. 15, 1976 -- Period (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 6.7 7. 1 -0.4 6.0 9.2 1.3 1.7 0.9 6.0 4.7 4.1 8 .8 7 .2 8 .5 5.6 5.7 5.6 2.6 9 .8 6..8 6.7 5.6 .5 .2 .9 13.8 9.2 4.4 11.6 10.6 6.4 10.6 9.0 9.7 11.9 10.1 6.9 5.7 9.9 9.2 9.5 10.0 12.1 6.3 9.2 8.6 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1975 1975 -1.2 0.3 1ST 1976 -1.2 HALF -1.2 10 .8 QUARTERLY: 4TH OTR. 1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 1975 1976 1976 1976 1.4 4.5 7.3 1.6 9.3 8.4 10.0 11.3 -6.2 3.9 0.3 -5.3 3.1 1.1 4.6 8.B 5.4 4.3 6.8 4.1 12.6 11.3 13.5 5.0 7.6 5.7 8.4 9.8 10.0 7.7 9.3 9.2 QUART ERLY-AV: 4TH QTR. 1975 0.6 2.7 5.6 2.3 9.4 6.7 9.4 9.9 1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 1976 1976 1976 -3.8 0.8 3.0 -3.2 0.5 3.0 5.3 8.5 6.0 2.6 8.4 4.1 11.4 12.4 12.0 5.7 7.1 6.4 8.6 9.6 9.8 8.7 9.0 9.0 3.9 -2.6 0.8 14.3 -1.6 2.8 3.6 11.1 7.0 1.6 -0.8 9.0 -3.2 8.5 8.7 11.9 7.1 4.3 7.9 11.7 5.3 8.2 9.9 12.1 7.7 6.5 10.3 14.3 8.9 5.7 10.1 14.3 9.1 7.2 9.8 7.9 12.2 6.9 9.9 11.5 7.3 11.0 7.1 8.2 7.7 11.2 6.6 9.9 10.4 6.0 10.9 7.1 8.0 7.8 11.4 7.2 10.4 MONTHLY: 1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. NOTESt 1/ P - -6.3 9.7 0.8 -10.2 -8.4 2.6 11.9 1.2 3.5 4.0 -6.9 5.7 14.7 7.0 7.0 -0.8 4.3 6.1 11.0 1.1 0.7 12.2 14.9 14.7 10.9 7.0 4.0 1.5 10.8 3.1 6.4 6.9 6.6 7.0 8.0 8.6 -0.8 5.2 1.8 1.6 6.7 13.3 9.8 6.5 4.8 6.0 13.2 0.8 5.9 P 4.5 -5.6 -4.3 13.5 6.3 -0.4 IIu U----U IU I ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RELATED INSTITUTIONSt AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY -6.8 -1.7 LOANS SOLD TO BANK- 10.4 6.0 10.8 APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES OCT. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK CREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES!/ 15, 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES Total Period Total Adj. Loans bor borrowed Monetary Base Credit proxy and Investments M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 32,390 34,693 34,539 31,092 33,966 34,409 96,051 104,892 110,930 449.4 495.3 514.4 637.7 695.2 725.5 270.5 283.1 294.8 571.4 612.4 664.3 919.5 981.6 1092.9 634.9 702.2 747.2 982.9 1071.4 1175.8 1093.7 1191.0 131U.3 1132.0 1232.7 1351.9 34,421 34,024 108,949 505.5 717.2 293.6 652.9 1068.1 731.9 1147.1 1274.4 1314.8 OCT. NOV. DEC. 34,239 34.515 34,539 34,048 34,455 34,409 109,279 110,287 110,930 508.0 514.1 514.4 721.0 726.9 725.5 293.4 295.6 294.8 655.8 662.1 664.3 1075.8 1086.5 1092.9 736.7 743.9 747.2 1156.6 1168.3 1175.8 1285.3 1300.6 1310.3 1325.9 1341.7 1351.9 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. 34,245 34,052 34,003 34,167 33,971 33,949 111,171 111,538 112,192 514.1 515.6 516.0 727.6 731.2 735.4 295.1 296.5 298.0 670.2 678.5 683.4 1103.7 1117.2 1127.4 749.4 753.8 756.5 1182.9 1192.6 1200.5 1318.0 1327.0 1335.5 1359.9 1369.0 1377.9 APR. MAY JUNE 34,024 34,136 34t335 33,980 34,022 34,209 113,333 113,994 114,653 517.3 515.3 522.3 738.7 742.0 743.3 301.7 303.3 303.1 691.9 697.2 700.3 1141.2 1151.5 1159.2 763.4 765.4 770.9 1212.7 1219.7 1229.8 1348.0 1355.4 1366.6 1391.0 1399.4 1411.5 JULY AUG. SEPT. P 34,387 34,524 34,364 34,254 34,424 34,302 115,150 115,769 116,202 523.6 522.5 523.3 747.6 752.7 756.4 304.8 306.3 306.2 707.6 713.4 719.4 1172.0 1184.9 1198.2 777.2 777.7 781.8 1241.6 1249.2 1260.6 1378.4 1385.3 1397.9 1423.7 1430.8 1443.7 11 18 25 34t226 34,725 34t355 34,104 34,640 34,287 115,397 115,966 115,764 522.8 523.0 521.9 306.3 307.3 306.4 712.0 714.1 714.7 777.4 778.5 778.2 1 8 15 22 29P 34,505 34,278 34,467 34 045 34,608 34,412 34,233 34,406 34,001 34,520 115,817 115,785 116,288 115,987 116,703 522.6 521.5 524.1 524.6 522.6 305.9 304.3 308.9 305.8 304.8 715.6 715.6 721.7 719.9 719.7 778.5 778.0 783.7 782.1 782.6 6P 34,644 34,542 116,913 528.6 308.8 725.7 788.4 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 MONTHLY: 1975--SEPT. WEEKLY; 1976-AUG. SEPT. OCT. ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLO TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY NOTES: OCT.15, APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 1976 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Period Currency Demand Deposits Total 2 1 Other Than CD's 3 Mutual Savings Bank & S&L S 2 CD's Total Savings Other 4 5 5 h T Short TrCommercial aer Uin .S.Gov't ScPaper./ Credit Union hares s Bond 9 10 11 8.5 5.6 15.8 13.8 12.1 20.2 4.9 ".#b 6.2 31.3 11.9 19.5 39.3 9.1 -0.5 7 11 12 (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 8.1 10.2 8.7 5.3 3.0 2.6 16.2 15.0 7.9 11.4 9.4 12.2 2.8 7.0 17.8 18.7 11.2 8.2 45.6 41.4 -7.7 4.4 0.9 7.6 7.8 13.4 10.4 18.2 16.0 10.0 6.1 -12.7 -2.9 15.2 15.2 20.9 17.6 5.7 6.5 6.7 31.3 5.7 -6.5 4.1 6.9 15.0 23.6 8.5 -29.7 14.0 16.8 6.3 0.3 15.9 12.9 11.6 15.6 6.2 19.2 12.5 17.6 6.0 41.3 11.9 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST MALF 2ND HALF 1975 1975 9.4 7.6 1ST HALF 1976 10.6 4TH QTR. 1975 9.4 15T QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 1976 1976 1976 10.9 10.0 8.2 2.4 5.8 2.7 5.4 8.2 6.6 17.1 12.4 16.0 32.4 13.6 19.0 5.6 11.3 13.8 -47.3 -13.7 -46.5 14.3 13.2 17.4 16.8 16.1 15.5 6.5 5.9 11.5 -3.6 4.2 -8.3 7.7 s3.6 8.0 14.0 16.5 6.1 23.5 -1 13.4 13.8 15.3 17.1 16.4 15.7 6.6 5.9 9.3 12.3 0.0 -4.8 9.7 17.1 15.5 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.3 15.2 18.8 14.6 18.3 5.5 7.3 -23.2 21.6 63.8 34.9 -20.4 3.0 17.b 14.6 13.4 18.0 10.7 Z1.1 13.6 13.7 20.3 10.0 19.8 16.2 7.1 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 5.2 10.4 12.0 11.9 3.6 -19.6 8.7 5.7 8.6 17.0 15.1 27.3 13.& 2.6 7.9 QUARTERLY: -1.1 QUARTE RLY-AV: 4TH UTR. 1975 8.4 0.2 9.7 9.8 14.4 6.6 9.5 1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 1976 1976 1976 9.8 11.7 7.8 0.4 7.2 2.8 7.8 6.3 8.0 15.9 13.7 14.1 28.3 21.7 13.4 6.7 7.0 14.9 -29.3 -30.6 -26.2 1975- SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9 1.6 -4.3 7.1 -5.9 5.8 13.7 13.5 11.0 6.0 10.7 13.6 10.1 13.4 11.7 14.6 20.5 0.6 10.0 12.8 1.7 4.6 27.3 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. P 8.1 14.6 9.6 15.9 11.0 3.1 9.3 6.1 9.2 -1.1 3.8 4.3 14.6 5.3 5.3 7.7 3.1 8.4 1.0 15.1 11.. -2.3 10.4 18.2 21.4 11.0 14.9 11.4 10.4 16.6 12.8 18.0 26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 12.1 4.0 0.6 9.6 5.1 19.0 20.9 6.0 14.0 -53.6 -57.6 -36.6 -27.9 -53.8 42.2 -17.0 -89.7 -37.3 . MONTL Y . - 1/ P - 5.9 5.3 -3.2 . a *- . - . - . - GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. 13.4 16.1 i - 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.7 14.2 18.8 18.5 . - BY AVERAGING . - END OF CURRENT 5.4 5.4 a - 5.4 0.0 0.0 12.6 -8.9 -25.1 9.2 * - MONTH AND END OF . - OCT. 15, 1976 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Currency Demand Deposits Period Total Mutual Credit Savings Union Savings hares Bonds ShortTerm US Gov't mercial Paper Com CD's Bank & S&L Savings 5 Other 6 7 Sharesl 8 9 10 Sec I/ 11 12 Other Than CD's i_/ Total Non Total Gov't Deposit Funds Dean _Depo 13 1 2 3 Total 4 61.5 67.8 73.7 209.0 215.3 221.0 364.4 419.1 452.4 300.9 329.3 369.6 127.3 136.2 160.5 173.6 193.1 209.0 63.5 89.8 82.9 323.5 341.6 395.5 24.7 27.7 33.3 60.4 63.3 67.2 50.3 56.3 67.3 36.3 41.8 41-,6 0.6 8.4 8.4 7.3 b.o 7.0 72.0 221.6 438.3 359.2 154.4 204.8 79.1 383.5 31.9 66.2 61.0 40.4 7.0 6.t OCT. NOV. DEC. 72.6 73.4 73.7 220.8 222.1 221.0 443.3 448.3 452.4 362.4 366.5 369.6 155.9 157.8 160.5 206.5 208.7 209.0 80.9 81.8 82.9 387.8 391.8 395.5 3t.4 32.8 33.3 66.6 66.9 67.2 6L.1 65.4 67.3 40.5 41.1 41.6 7.', 6b., 6.4 8. 9.6 7.o 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. 74.2 75.1 75.7 220.8 221.5 222.3 454.4 457.3 458.5 375.2 381.9 385.4 164.1 170.2 173.5 211.1 211.8 211.9 79.2 75.4 73.1 399.9 404.8 409.6 33.8 34.1 34.7 67.6 68.0 68.3 67.5 66.4 o6.7 41.9 4i.1 42.4 7.9 8.0 8.2 6.0 10.9 10.9 APR. MAY JUNE 76.7 77.4 77.6 225.0 226.0 225.5 461.7 462.1 467.9 390.2 393.9 397.3 176.7 179.4 179.4 213.6 214.5 217.9 71.4 68.2 70.6 414.4 419.0 423.1 35.1 35.5 36.1 68.6 69.0 69.3 66.7 66.7 67.4 43.0 43.9 44.9 7.5 7.6 6.4 JULY AUG. SEPT. P 78.2 78.6 79.2 226.6 227.6 227.0 472.4 471.5 475.6 402.8 407.1 413.2 181.1 184.4 187.9 221.7 222.8 225.4 69.6 64.4 62.4 428.1 434.8 441.5 36.4 37.0 37.5 69.9 70.6 71.3 66.9 65.5 66.0 45.4 -+5.5 45.8 8.6 6.9 8.2 9.0 13.8 13.0 11 18 25 78.7 78.6 78.7 227.6 228.6 227.7 471.1 471.2 471.8 405.7 406.9 408.3 183.6 184.2 185.0 222.1 222.6 223.3 65.4 64.4 63.5 8.7 9.2 9.3 11.4 12.7 16.5 1 8 15 22 29P 78.6 79.1 79.1 79.3 79.3 227.4 225.2 229.8 226.6 225.4 472.5 473.7 474.8 476.3 477.8 409.7 411.3 412.8 414.1 415.0 185.9 186.8 187.5 188.2 189.1 223.8 224.5 225.2 225.9 225.9 62.8 62.4 62.0 62.2 62.9 8.6 7.9 7.7 8.7 8.4 15.9 16.0 10.0 12.7 12.5 6P 79.8 229.0 479.6 416.9 190.8 226.1 62.7 8.4 13.1 14 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 MONTHLY: 1975-SEPT. 7.4 7.4 9.t6 MEEKLY: 1976-AUG. SEPT. OCT. 1/ 2/ P - ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY PREVIOUS MONTH REPDRTEb DATA. 

Federal Reserve (1976, October 18). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19761019

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19761019,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Oct},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19761019},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}