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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC August 13, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) August 13, 1976 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent Developments (1) Over the July-August period, M1 appears to be expanding at an annual rate of about 6 per cent--the mid-point of the Committee's operating range. around a 10 range. Growth of M 2 over the same period is now projected at per cent annual rate, somewhat above the mid-point of its Expansion of the time deposit component of M2 in July was somewhat more rapid than anticipated, reflecting a resumption of savings deposit growth as short-term market interest rates declined. Deposit inflows to nonbank thrift institutions also increased sharply during the month. Non- borrowed reserves appear to be increasing at only about a 2½ per cent annual rate over the July-August period, as a decline in the outstanding volume of money market CD's of banks released reserves to support other deposits. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over July-August Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates M1 4 to 8 5.9 M2 7½ to 11½ Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 10.4 Avg. for statement week ending July 21 5.30 5.28 28 5.36 Aug. 4 5.25 11 (2) Given growth in M1 and M 2 close to the mid-points of the FOMC's short-run ranges, the Desk has continued to aim at a Federal funds rate of around 5¼ per cent. With earlier market concern about a near-term tightening in monetary policy allayed by the stability of the funds rate--as well as by moderate growth in the monetary aggregates and incoming economic data that seemed to indicate less than anticipated strength in the economy--short-term market interest rates declined another 10 to 20 basis points during the intermeeting period. The prime rate at major banks was reduced ¼ percentage point to 7 per cent in early August. (3) Long-term credit markets have also been influenced by a more optimistic assessment of the interest rate outlook. Corporate and municipal bond yields have fallen 15 to 20 basis points since the July Committee meeting, although this partly reflects a moderation in the volume of new offerings coming to market during the period and in immediate prospect. Mortgage rates have changed little over the intermeeting period. (4) The Treasury successfully marketed a substantial volume of longer-term debt in connection with its mid-August refunding. To redeem $4.5 billion of maturing obligations held by the public and to raise new cash, the Treasury sold $10.6 billion of new securities. The refunding package included $2 billion of 3-year notes, $7.6 billion of 10-year notes (increased from $4 billion when subscriptions for the issue totaled $2444 billion), and $1 billion of 25 -year bonds. While dealers were awarded most of the new bond, they received only minimal allotments of the 10-year note. In when-issued trading, however, they have taken a large volume of 10-year securities into their positions. Total dealer positions in Treasury coupon issues are large, but dealers thus far appear to be willing holders as all three new issues are selling at sizable premiums over their issue prices and there is a very sizable positive carry on the longer-term issues. (5) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Calendar Year 1975 Past Twelve Months July '76 over July '75 Past Six Months July '76 over Jan. '76 Past Three Months July '76 over April'76 Past Month July '76 over June '76 Nonborrowed reserves 1.3 -.5 .5 3.2 1.5 Total reserves -.4 -- .8 4.2 1.7 Monetary Base 5.8 6.4 7.1 6.4 5.1 M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 4.1 4.4 6.6 4.1 6.7 M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 8.5 9.3 11.2 9.1 12.5 M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) 11.3 11.5 12.4 10.8 13.2 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 6.4 6.5 7.4 7.2 9.8 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.7 9.5 9.9 9.6 11.4 Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.9 3.2 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 4.4 5.3 5.5 4.8 6.9 -. 6 -1.0 -1.6 -. 6 -.2 -- Concepts of Money Bank Credit Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper .4 .4 -1.0 .1 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (6) Summarized below for Committee consideration are three alternative short-run specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges for August-Sept.1/ M1 4½-8½ M2 8-12 Federal funds rate (intermeeting period) (7) 4¼-5¼ 4-8 7½-11½ 4¾-5¾ 3½-7½ 7-11 5¼-6¼ Longer-run projections of levels and growth rates are shown in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b. Under all three alternatives, the monetary growth rates shown for the QII '76-QII '77 period are around the mid-points of the longer-run ranges adopted by the Committee at its last meeting. Expected behavior of the funds rate between now and mid-1977 under these assumptions is shown in Appendix Table II. (8) Over the longer-run, the three alternatives would differ in the distribution of monetary ease or restraint--whether measured by monetary growth rates or interest rate levels--between the second half of 1976 and the first half of 1977. Alternative A--which involves an easing of the money market over the next few weeks--encompasses more monetary ease in the second half of this year than the other two alternatives, and more monetary restraint in the first half of next year. At the other end of the spectrum, alternative C--which assumes a tightening of the 1/ Nonborrowed reserves and other reserve aggregates thought to be consistent with these ranges are shown in Appendix table I. -5a- Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates I_ 1976 1976 1977 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C July August September 304.8 306.1 304,8 306.1 307.9 304.8 306.1 307.7 707.6 712.4 719.2 707.6 712.4 718.8 707.6 712.4 718.2 1172.1 1182.8 1194.9 1172.1 1182.8 1194.4 1172.1 1182.8 1193.7 QII QIII QIV 302.7 306.3 311.5 302.7 306.3 311.1 302.7 306.2 310.6 696.5 713.1 730.9 696.5 712.9 729.9 696.5 712.7 728.4 1150.7 1183.3 1216.0 1150.7 1183.1 1214.4 1150.7 1182.9 1211.9 QI QII 316.1 320.1 315.8 320.1 315.0 320.1 745.0 758.0 744.4 758.4 742.1 756.9 1240.3 1262.5 1239.7 1263.7 1235.3 1260.0 10.8 8.1 9.8 11.0 12.3 11.0 11.8 11.1 11.3 11.3 10.6 11.2 9.8 308,1 Growth Rates Monthly: 11.0 5.1 7.8 5.1 7.1 5.1 6.3 8.1 11.5 4.8 6.8 4.8 6.3 4.6 5.7 9.5 10.0 9.3 8.8 QII 5.9 5.1 6.0 5.4 5.7 6.5 7.7 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 7.2 8.3 7.7 7.7 8.0 Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.2 6.1 9.9 7.4 9.2 7.8 11.3 7.6 11.1 8.1 10.6 7.9 5.7 5.7 5.7 8.8 8.7 9.7 9.8 9.5 1976 August September 8.1 Quarterly Average: 1976 QIII QIV 1977 QI Annual QII '76-QII '77 FOMC Longer-run Range QII '76-QII '77 4k-7 74-9! 11.1 9-11 -5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 July August September 777.2 776.8 781.9 777.2 776.8 781.6 777.2 776.8 781,1 1241.6 1247.2 1257.6 1241.6 1247,2 1257.2 1241.6 1247.2 1256.6 523.7 522.0 523.6 523.7 522.0 523.4 523.7 522.0 523.1 1976 QII 766.6 778.6 794.4 766.6 778.5 793.6 766.6 778.4 792.6 1220.7 1248.8 1279.5 1220.7 1248.7 1278.1 1220.7 1248.5 1276.0 518.3 523.1 532.5 518.3 523.0 532.1 518.3 522,9 531.5 812.3 831,0 812.1 831.8 809.8 829.7 1307,7 1335,5 1307.3 1337.0 1303.1 1332.8 539.7 550.2 539.7 550.9 538.1 549.3 QIII QIV 1977 QI QII Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 August September -0.6 7.9 -0.6 7.4 -0.6 6.6 5.4 10.0 5.4 9.6 5.4 9.0 -3.9 3.7 -3.9 3.2 -3.9 2.5 Quarterly Averages: QIV 6.3 8.1 6.2 7.8 6.2 7.3 9.2 9.8 9.2 9.4 9.1 8.8 3.7 7.2 3.6 7.0 3.6 6.6 QI QII 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.7 8.7 9.8 8.8 8.5 9.1 9.1 8.5 9.1 5.4 7.8 5.7 8.3 5.0 8,3 Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77 7.3 9.2 7.0 9.6 6.8 9.4 9.6 8.8 9.4 9.2 9.1 8.9 5.5 6.6 5.3 7.1 5.1 6.7 Annual QII '76-QII '77 8.4 8.5 8.2 9.4 9.5 9.2 6.2 6.3 6.0 1976 1977 QIII money market between now and the next Committee meeting--focuses monetary restraint more in the second half of this year. between. Alternative B lies in The differences among the alternatives, as indexed by growth rates for M1 and the average level of the funds rate, are summarized in the table below. M1 growth 2nd half '76 1st half '77 Average level of funds rate 2nd half '76 1st half '77 (9) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 5¾ 5½ 5¾ 5¾ 5¼ 6 5-3/8 7¼ 5½ 6-7/8 6-1/8 6¾ The intermeeting range for the Federal funds rate under alternative B is centered on 5¾ per cent, the rate recently prevailing. Given the projected increase in nominal GNP at about an 11 per cent annual rate on average over the next few quarters, the staff still expects that interest rates will begin rising fairly soon if longer-run M1 growth is held to around a 5¾ per cent annual rate. By the second quarter of 1977, we would expect the funds rate to average around 7¼ per cent. (10) Under alternative B, M1 is expected to expand in a 4-8 per cent, annual rate, range over the August-September period and M 2 in a 7½-11½ per cent range. M1 is expected to increase somewhat more rapidly in September than in August, in part because of a sharp drop in Treasury balances. These balances have built up substantially in August, reflecting the unexpectedly large amount of net new money raised in the recent Treasury financing operation. (11) M2 growth is likely to be sustained by sizable inflows of time and savings deposits other than money market CD's, given continued stability in the funds rate and little change in other short-term rates. The rate of increase in such time deposits may be more rapid in September than in August, when expansion apparently is being restrained by the diversion of funds to purchase the Treasury's new 8 per cent, 10-year note. Over the longer run, the prospective rise in interest rates would likely dampen savings and time deposit flows. spring of 1977, It appears likely that, by the Regulation Q ceilings would need to be increased in order to maintain M 2 and M3 growth rates near the mid-points of their respective longer-run ranges. (12) Demands on credit markets are expected to be relatively modest over the next few weeks. In the August-September period, the average monthly volume of new issues may amount to only about $1-1/2 billion for publicly offered corporate bonds, and about $2 billion for state and local government issues--down from average monthly volumes of about $2-1/2 billion and just under $3 billion, respectively, in the first half of the year. There are signs of some pick-up in short-term business credit demands, but these demands remain relatively light. However, there is a very large inventory of U.S. Government securities in dealer hands that has not yet been distributed to ultimate holders. Dealers hold $9 bil- lion in U.S. Government and Federal agency issues, including $1-1/4 billion of the new 10- and 25-year Treasury issues. (13) Alternative C involves a tighter monetary policy over the next few weeks and assumes that the Federal funds rate rises to the midpoint of a 5-1/4 to 6-1/4 per cent range. Such an increase would be likely to spark substantial efforts by Government dealers to unload their positions, and would therefore probably lead to considerable short-run upward adjustment in yields on Treasury securities. The 3-month bill rate might rise 40 to 60 basis points to the 5-1/2 to 5-3/4 per cent area, and Treasury note and bond yields could increase 20 to 30 basis points. (14) While alternative C involves more near-term restraint than B, the early move toward tightening would work to limit interest rate increases needed over the longer run to maintain M1 growth over the QII '76-QII '77 period at around 5-3/4 per cent. The staff believes that the funds rate could peak out at around 6-3/4 per cent during the fall under an alternative C approach. At such a rate level, it appears that an upward adjustment in Regulation Q may not be needed to enable the Committee to attain its longer-run M 2 and M 3 objectives. (15) Alternative A assumes an easing of money market conditions between now and the next meeting--with the funds rate dropping to the midpoint of a 4-1/4 to 5-1/4 per cent range. Given the outlook for GNP, such a near-term easing would probably need to be reversed shortly in order to attain a 5-3/4 per cent growth in M1 from QII '76 to QII '77. If the reversal were begun in early fall, the funds rate might peak out at around 7-1/2 per cent by the second quarter of 1977, a somewhat higher rate than under alternative B. An upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceiling rates might be required somewhat earlier than under B, perhaps in the winter of next year. (16) Market reactions to an easing of money market conditions over the next few weeks are difficult to evaluate. Downward yield adjust- ments may be limited by expectations that such an easing is likely to be reversed soon. On the other hand, if economic news also continues to be suggestive of a pause in activity, an easing of the money market could be accompanied by fairly substantial rate declines in short- and long-term markets. The 3-month bill rate, for example, might well return to around 4-3/4 per cent, its earlier low for the year. At such a rate, savings inflows to banks and thrift institutions would probably become even larger. This would exert pressure on these institutions to seek higher yielding longer-term investments, and thus would place downward pressure on bond yields and also on mortgage rates. However, some institutions--fearful of being locked into longer-term securities should there be a reversal of interest rates and a strengthening of credit demands--might elect to reduce time and savings deposit rates, or at least to cut back their advertising for deposits. -10- Proposed directive (17) Given below is a proposed operational paragraph for the directive if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the Longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not consider those targets. "Monetary Aggregates" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. Should the Committee desire to place main emphasis on bank (18) reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought. Three alternative "money market" direc- tives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth inmonetary aggregates]over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to[DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates] over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market condiconsistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates]over the tions[DEL: period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Appendix A Comparison of Actual and Targeted Reserves The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the four-week period ending August 18 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting. Actual1/ 1. (2+3) 2. 3. Nonborrowed reserves Required reserves (4-5) Free reserves Targeted Differences 34,371 34,326 45 34,335 34,360 -25 36 -35 71 4. Excess reserves 164 163 1 5. Member bank borrowing 128 198 -70 34,499 34,523 -24 Currency 80,952 80,989 -37 Monetary base 115,451 115,512 6. (1+5) 7. 8. (6+7) Total reserves -61 As can be seen from the table, actual nonborrowed reserves turned out to be within $50 million of the "targeted" level. Banks held somewhat more free reserves than the staff had expected, almost entirely reflecting a lower level of borrowing than anticipated. On the other hand, actual required reserves were a little below expectations. This occurred because of more weakness than anticipated in the outstanding volume of banks' money market CD's. 1/ Includes week of August 18, which is partly estimated. A- 2 Total reserves were only slightly weaker than anticipated, but the monetary base was further below "target" because growth in currency was much smaller than expected. Appendix Table I Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Change from average of previous 4-week period ($ million) Average of 5 weeks Aug. 25 to Sept. 22 ($ million) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for Aug.-Sept. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 34,412 34,333 34,181 41 -38 -190 49 108 243 -79 -20 115 216 200 187 52 36 23 34,461 34,441 34,423 -38 -58 -76 1.8 1.5 1.1 Monetary base- 115,998 115,978 115,961 548 528 511 5.0 4.9 4.8 Nonborrowed monetary base 115,949 115,870 115,718 627 548 396 5.4 5.0 4.2 Nonborrowed reserves Member bank borrowing Excess reserves 3.2 1.8 --- -0.8 -- Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves 1/ 1/ Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks. Appendix Table II Projected Federal Funds Rates 1976 1977 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C QIII 5-1/8 5% 54 QIV 5t 5% 6-5/8 7 6% 6% 7k 7k 6% QI QII Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) (Revised Series) M, M2 Mi 1973 M3 S q 10.3 3.6 7.4 7.3 9.2 8.4 II 10.1 6.4 9.9 8.2 9.8 8.5 III 1.8 5.5 6.3 7.9 6.1 7.8 7.8 5.1 10.5 9.0 9.9 8.4 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.0 6.2 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 1974 I 5.3 6.0 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.9 II 5.3 5.6 6,9 7.4 5.7 6.5 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 4.7 4.0 6.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.7 5.0 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 1975 I 1.4 0.6 6.9 5.6 9.0 7.5 II 9.7 7.4 III 3.6 7.1 IV 1.6 QIV '74-QIV '75 1976 I IV III IV I II 12.5 10.2 14.5 12.6 6.5 10.1 10.7 13.3 2.3 7.0 6.4 4.1 4.4 8.5 8.3 4.3 2,6 6.8 8.4 9.3 9.4 11.3 11.1 11.5 10.1 12.6 11.4 9.9 11.3 11.4 12.4 --- M - Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 8/13/76 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 1976 J 1976 CHART 2 8/13/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -540 -520 -500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL NONBORROWED 1975 1976 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adlusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios. CHART 3 8/13/76 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT S8 F.R. DISCOUNT RATE INTEREST RATES Short-term - PER CENT WEEKLY AVERAGES - 7 INTEREST RATES PER CENT 10 - WEEKLY - 9 FHA MORTGAGES FNMA MONDAY AUCTIOr EURO-DOLLARS 3-MONTH PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER , 1975 S-4-6 MONTH 5 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 1976 Aaa UTILIT' NEW ISSUE 1 1975 A 1976 1975 1976 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 1 BANK RESERVES AUG. 13, 1976 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED REQUIRED RESERVES BANK RESERVES Period Total Reserves 1 Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 2 3 4 5 6 7 34,022 34,209 34,252 (34,357) 113,994 114,653 115,145 (115,662) 19,990 19,953 19,952 (20,120) 11,750 11,842 12,004 (11,798) 2,186 2,326 2,200 I 2,380) MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 34,136 34,335 34,384 (34,462) 1976--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. 33,927 34,121 34,156 (34,298) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 1.4 -6.2 3.9 4.5 -5.3 3.1 7.3 4.6 8.8 0.5 -5.7 4.0 -3.4 -2.0 6.0 4.1 -11.0 -1.0 0.6 2.7 -3.2 0.5 5.6 5.3 8.5 -0.1 -3.6 1.2 -2.1 -1.0 4.2 -0.6 -6.5 -4.4 QUARTERLY-AV 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. -3.8 0.8 MONTHLY 197t--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. JULY-AUG. ( 7.0 6.9 5.1 5.41 ( 5.3) 12.6 -2.2 -0.1 10.1) ( ( -18.2 9.4 16.4 ( -20.6) 5.0) ( -2.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1976--JULY 7 14 21 28 34,760 34,072 34,324 34,103 34,634 33,896 34,265 33,944 114,939 115,001 115,189 115,085 34,198 34,043 34,096 34,101 19.915 19,835 19,961 19,976 11,959 12,058 12,033 11,997 2,325 2,149 2,102 2,126 1976--AUG. 4 11 35,035 34,227 34,879 34,105 116,004 115,060 34,591 34,266 20,232 20,081 11,936 11,889 2,423 2,296 NOTE: I- 1--- 1--- RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. 1 1 CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. Table 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AUG. 13, 1976 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (M2) (Ml) Period Adjusted Total Credit U.S. Govt Deposits Proxy 2 3 697.2 700.3 707.6 (712.4) 515.3 522.3 523.7 1522.0) 1 Time and Savings Deposts Other Than C*'S ns S Total Total 4 6 5 7 _ondeposit CD C'S Member Sources of US Govt Deposits Funds 9 8 10 11 MONTHLY LEVELS-$BIL 303.3 303.1 304.8 (306.1) 1976--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. ( 7.4 9.8 9.0 12.4) 462.1 467.9 472.3 (470.71 393.9 397.3 402.8 (406.3) 179.4 179.4 181.1 (183.6) 214.5 217.9 221.7 (222.7) ( 68.2 70.6 69.6 64.4) 1 7.6 8.4 8.8 8.8) ( 2.3 3.7 2.7 4.0) X ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--41H QTR. 1976-151 QTR. 2ND OTR. 1.6 4.3 6.8 7.0 11.5 9.9 7.0 1.2 4.9 12.9 5.4 8.2 11.6 17.1 12.4 15.8 32.4 13.6 8.2 5.6 11.3 19.2 -46.8 -14.2 2.3 2.6 8.4 6.4 10.1 11.3 6.0 2.3 2.4 9.7 7.8 6.3 9.8 15.9 13.7 14.4 28.3 21.7 6.6 6.7 7.0 9.5 -29.3 -30.6 I 1.3 15.1 11.3 -4.1) ( 11.4 10.4 16.6 10.4) ( 18.3 0.0 11.4 16.6) ( 5.6 19.0 20.9 5.4) -53.8 42.2 -17.0 ( -89.7) ( 3.6) ( 13.6) ( 14.0) ( 13.2) ( -52.7) QUARTERLY-AV 1975-4TH OTR. 1976--IST QTR. 2ND QTR. MONTHLY 1976-MAY JUNE JULY AUG. JULY-AUG. i 6.4 -0.8 6.7 5.1) I 5.9) ( 9.2 5.3 12.5 8.1) 1 -4.6 16.3 3.2 -3.9) C 10.4) ( -0.3) WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976-JULY AUG. NOTE: I/ P - 7 14 21 28 4 P 304.3 304.6 306.0 304.8 704.9 706.9 709.0 709.2 522.6 523.1 526.6 524.4 9.4 9.3 8.9 8.6 472.0 472.8 472.7 472.6 400.6 402.3 403.0 404.4 179.6 180.7 181.4 182.1 221.0 221.6 221.6 222.3 71.5 70.4 69.7 68.2 8.5 8.5 9.0 9.1 2.0 2.4 3.7 3.0 305.5 710.1 523.3 11.0 471.2 404.7 182.6 222.1 66.5 8.7 3.0 DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHSES ARE CURRENT PROECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC AUGUST 13, 1976 TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Within 1-year 1 - 5 5 - 10 Over 10 Total Within 1-year 1 - 5 5 - 10 Over 10 Total Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ Net RP's 6/ 1972 1973 1974 1975 -490 7,232 1,280 -468 87 207 320 337 789 579 797 3,284 539 500 434 1,510 167 129 196 1,070 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 46 120 439 191 592 400 1,665 824 253 244 659 460 168 101 318 138 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 1975-Qtr. II Qtr. III Qtr. IV 1,086 -757 1,294 218 13 74 1,135 712 385 454 201 234 273 171 315 2,079 1,096 1,006 64 58 514 141 -2 106 71 -63 14 -2 747 284 3,076 1,060 2,626 230 2,392 -1,403 1976--Qtr. I Qtr. II -363 2,067 115 109 554 796 226 245 156 134 1,052 1,284 102 3 288 140 108 57 38 40 535 240 1,022 3,371 1,256 1,654 1976--Feb. Mar. 1,275 -42 40 38 366 78 63 63 59 24 528 203 76 - 149 - 61 -- 11 -- 297 -- 2,029 23 -3,129 788 Apr. May June 513 -292 1,845 27 83 179 617 51 195 38 -96 294 -990 3 - -140 - -57 -- 40 -- -240 -- 758 -122 2,735 1,261 -958 1,351 July -2,009 - -- -- -- - - - -- -- - -2,040 -2,334 1976--June 2 9 16 23 30 -572 -302 949 909 861 -28 55 387 229 -112 83 --64 32 ---591 399 --- ----- ---- -- ---- -587 -310 911 1,484 1,240 -5,170 -1,068 5,443 -147 3,157 July 7 14 21 28 -472 -783 -523 -231 - --- --- --- ---- ----- ---- -- -- -481 -791 -526 -238 -3,126 -1,003 - -- 4 11 135 - -- --- --- -- - -- -- - --- -13 115 2,499 -8,081 Aug. - - r 2,188 18 25 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC AUGUST 13, 1976 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds (3) (4) Period Bills (1) Coupon Issues (2) 1975--High Low 7,029 1,586 2,845 253 1976--igh Low 6,821 3,668 *2,060 175 249 1975-July Aug. Sept. 4,321 4,020 5,008 1,246 1,204 588 135 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5,766 4,751 4,822 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 1976--June July Aug. II Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Excess** Reserves (5) Seasonal (7) 8 New York (8) 38 Others (9) -7,387 -1,757 -11,632 655 -106 -6,686 -2,367 -12,660 - 6,908 -5,546 -3,964 -3,551 - 9,896 122 188 195 191 1,480 2,073 1,075 123 173 103 161 251 265 -2,644 -3,812 -2,811 - 9,202 4,959 5,214 5,910 1,220 1,051 778 97 181 151 232 256 223 -3,581 -4,138 -4,726 - 9,746 5,750 4,239 4,996 605 591 582 133 199 196 155 210 214 -5,179 -4,402 -4,219 -10,783 *5,743 *904 211 235p -4,728p - 9,289p 2 9 16 23 30 5,266 5,052 5,777 4,445 4,495 175 636 522 561 793 199 223 201 160 204 -3,235 -5,370 -4,916 -3,701 -3,154 - 7,605 7 14 21 28 5,263 5,630 *5,744 *6,232 1,264 1,015 *619 *817 228 238 212 175 562 29 228 2p -5,006 -5,958 -3,917 - 7,760 107 444 -3.525p -5,193p 4 11 18 25 *6,201 *6,103 *977 *2,060 389 48 34 181 lOOp 804 -42 453 -70 571 -180 465 p -35p Total (6) -3,805 - 7,207 - 9,966 - 9,015 -10,159 -10,418 -10,015 - 9,640 - 8,151 - 9,158 -10,581 - 9,561 - 9,559 - 6,908 -11.101 - 9,724 - 8,875 - 9,091p -11, 2 33p NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL **Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per cent) AUGUST 13, 1976 Long-Term Short-Term Treasur Federal Funds (1) Period Bills 90-119 Day Commercial Paper (4) CD's New Isue-NYC Aaa Utilit New Recently Issue Offered (7) (8) Municipal Bond Buyer (9) U.S. Govt. 20Yr. Constant Maturity) (10) FNMA Auction Yield (11) GNMA Guaranteed Securities (12) 90-Day (2) 1-Year (3) 6.68 5.02 7.31 5.46 8.43 5.38 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.67 6.27 8.63 7.63 9.95 8.78 9.10 7.93 1976--High Low 5.53 4.73 6.32 5.35 5.90 5.00 5.63 4.75 5.75 4.88 8.95 8.38 8.94 8.44 7.13 6.54 8.17 7;80 9.20 8.83 8.45 8.00 1975--July Aug. Sept. 6,13 6.44 6.42 6.64 7.16 7.20 6.32 6.59 6.79 6.05 6.31 6.44 6.25 6.63 6.81 9.41 9.46 9.68 9.42 9.49 9.57 7.06 7.17 7.44 8.17 8.50 8.57 9.14 9.41 9.78 8.50 8.75 8.97 5.96 5.48 5.44 6.48 6.07 6.16 6.35 5.78 5.88 6.08 5.69 5.65 6.45 6.03 5.83 9.45 9.20 9.36 9.43 9.26 9.21 7.39 7.43 7.31 8.35 8.28 8.23 9.80 9.80 9.31 8.87 8.50 8.56 4.87 5.44 5.15 5.53 5.82 5.13 5.25 4.91 4.84 5.05 5.03 5.06 5.20 8.70 8.63 8.62 8.79 8.63 8.61 7.07 6.94 6.92 8.01 4.88 5.00 8.03 7.97 9.10 9.06 9.05 8.37 8.29 8.30 Apr. May June 4.86 5.20 5.54 5.98 5.08 5.44 5.41 6.12 5.83 4.81 5.25 5.55 4.94 5.38 5.68 8.48 8.82 8.72 8.52 8.77 8.73 6.60 6.87 6.87 7.86 8.13 8.03 8.89 9.09 9.13 8.10 8.33 8.35 July 5.23 5.82 5.54 5.30 5.42 8.63 8.63 6.79 8.00 9.05 8.37 5.63 5.63 5.63 5.50 5.38 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.63 5.50 8.83 8.71 8.69 8.70 8.72 8.80 8.76 8.70 8.74 8.67 6.89 6.86 6.85 6.87 6.87 8.08 8.04 8.02 7.99 8.02 9.20 8.44 8.39 8.34 8.34 8.34 7.70 5.13 1975--High Low Oct. Nov. Dec. 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 1976-June July Aug. Daily-Aug. 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 60-Day (5) I 90-Day (6) 5.38 5.21 5.20 5.19 6.03 5.75 5.79 5.78 5.75 5.60 5.50 5.40 5.50 5.25 5.25 5.20 5.63 5.38 5.38 5.30 8.58 8.53 8.66 8.72 8.57 8.55 8.68 8,69 6.78 6.78 6.77 6.73 7.98 5.20 5.25 5.30 5.35 8.60 8.50p 8.60 8.49 p 6.65 6.60 7.99 7 94 . p 4 11 18 25 5.36 5.25 5.15 5.18 5.74 5.67 5.38 5.38 5 12 5.33 5.24p 5.19 5.16 5.73 5.66 5.38 5.38 9.14 9.12 8.41 7.96 9.05 8.03 8.03 9.04 8.34 8.34 8.37 8.00 7.92(8/11) NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Priday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Period Total Adj. borrod MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MrEASURIES ANK RESERVESI aonser Credit proxy Base 1976 AUG. Total Loans and Invest- M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 11.6 10.6 6.4 10.6 9.0 9.7 11.1 8.9 10.0 11.9 8.9 9.7 mnnts 1 2 3 4 5 (Per cent annual rates of groth) ANNUALLY: 13.8 9.2 4.4 6.0 4.7 4.1 8 7 8 6.7 7.1 -0.4 6.0 9.2 1.3 10.5 10.2 3.9 1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 -1.2 0.3 1.7 0.9 4.5 3.1 9.8 6.8 6.9 5.7 9.9 9.2 9.5 10.0 9.4 9.5 1ST HALF 1976 -1.2 -1.2 3.1 10.8 6.3 9.2 8.6 8.9 3RD QTR. 1975 4TH QTR. 1975 -0.8 1.4 -2.8 4.5 -0.8 7.0 6.5 7.0 3.0 0.4 8.1 10.0 8.6 11.3 7.5 11.3 1ST QTR. 1976 2NO QTR. 1976 -6.2 3.9 -5.3 3.1 1.2 4.9 11.5 9.9 5.0 7.6 8.4 9.8 7.7 9.4 7.7 9.9 3RD QTR. 1975 4TH OTR. 1975 0.1 0.6 -1.9 2.7 1.4 6.0 10.1 6.4 5.7 6.7 10.1 9.4 10.7 9.9 9.5 9.6 1ST OTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976 -3.8 0.8 -3.2 0.5 2.3 2.4 10.1 11.3 5.7 7.1 8.6 9.6 8.7 9.0 8.7 9.3 -3.Z -3.1 3.9 -6.3 9.7 0.8 -5.8 0.0 -2.6 0.8 14.3 -1.6 -3.3 -4.3 5.2 5.9 14.4 0.7 9.5 5.7 4.2 5.3 11.5 4.0 5.1 -0.5 4.3 7.9 11.7 5.3 10.0 5.9 8.2 9.9 12.1 7.7 11.9 7.0 6.5 10.3 14.3 8.9 -10.2 -6.8 -1.7 0.7 4.0 7.0 1.7 -8.4 -6.9 -0.8 1.1 1.5 6.6 1.5 -0.7 3.5 0.9 3.0 -4.6 16.3 3.2 10.7 14.9 8.7 14.9 9.2 5.3 12.5 3.5 7.0 4.3 10.9 3.1 8.6 9.8 7.2 9.8 7.9 12.1 7.0 10.0 11.4 7.1 8.2 7.7 11.2 6.6 10.2 11.6 1973 1974 1975 SEMI-ANNUALLY: QUARTERLY: QUARTERLY-AV: MONTHLY: 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. NAY JUNE JULY P NOTES: I~~ m A ApJUSTEO CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS RELATED INSTITUTIONSt AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. I/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY SUBJECT TO RESERVE I I m1 REQUIREMENTS. LOANS I 10.6 6.0 5.7 10.1 14.3 9.1 7.1 8.0 7.8 11.4 7.2 10.8 12.0 I SOLD TO BANK- APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES AUG. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Period To 1 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES y 13, Total Loans and Invest. ments MI M M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Non borrowed Monetary Base Adj. Credit proxy 2 3 4 5 ANNUALLY: 32,390 34,693 34,539 31,092 33,966 34,409 96.051 104,892 110,930 449.4 405.3 514.4 637.7 695.2 725.5 270.5 283.1 294.8 571.4 612.4 664.3 919.5 981.6 1092.9 634.9 702.2 747.2 982.9 1071.4 1175.8 1093.7 1191.0 1310.3 1132.0 1232.7 1351.9 34,399 34,310 34.421 34,098 34,099 34,024 108,254 108,694 108,949 505.1 503.3 505.5 710.3 713.8 717.2 291.9 293.2 293.6 647.5 650.6 652.9 1051.6 1060.6 1068.1 729.6 729.3 731.9 1133.7 1139.3 1147.1 1260.1 1267.5 1274.4 1302.1 1308.6 1314.8 OCT. NOV. DEC. 34,239 34,515 34,539 34,048 34,455 34,409 109,279 110,287 110,930 508.0 514.1 514.4 721.0 726.9 725.5 293.4 295.6 294.8 655.8 662.1 664.3 1075.8 1086.5 1092.9 736.7 743.9 747.2 1156.6 1168.3 1175.8 1285.3 1300.6 1310.3 1325.9 1341.7 1351.9 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. 34,245 34,052 34,003 34,167 33,971 33.949 111,171 111,538 112,192 514.1 515.6 516.0 727.6 731.2 735.4 295.1 296.5 29 .0 670.2 678.5 683.4 1103.7 1117.2 1127.3 749.4 753.8 756.5 1182.9 1192.6 1200.5 1318.0 1327.0 1335.5 1359.9 1369.0 1377.9 APR. MAY JUNE 34,024 34,136 34,335 33,980 34,022 34,209 113,333 113,994 114,653 517.3 515.3 522.3 738.7 742.0 743.3 301.7 303.3 303.1 691.9 697.2 700.3 1141.2 1151.5 1159.3 763.4 765.4 770.9 1212.6 1219.7 1229.9 1348.0 1355.4 1366.9 1391.0 1399.3 1411.9 JULY P 34,384 34,252 115,145 523.7 747.6 304.8 707.6 1172.1 777.2 1241.6 1380.1 1426.0 9 16 23 30 33,939 34,438 34,031 34,965 33,846 34,389 33,666 34,799 114,213 114,784 114,389 115,291 520.6 524.2 522.9 522.7 304.0 303.7 301.9 302.2 700.6 701.3 699.5 701.6 770.3 771.7 770.6 773.6 JULY 7 14 21 28P 34,760 34,072 34,324 34,103 34,634 33,896 34,265 33,944 114,939 115,001 115,189 115,085 522.6 523.1 526.6 524.4 304.3 304.6 306.0 304.8 704.9 706.9 709.0 709.2 776.4 777.4 778.7 777.4 AUG. 4P 35,035 34,879 116,004 523.3 305.5 710.1 776.6 1973 197+. 1975 MONTHLY: 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. WEEKLY: 1976--JUNE NOTES; ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT 10 RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3. MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY AUG. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A 13, 1976 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Period urrency 1 Demand Deposits 2 Other Than CD's Total 3 Total Savings 4 5 Ohr CD's 6 7 Other Mutual Savings Bank & S&L sV i Credit Union Shares-11 Short Term Savings USGov't Commercial Bondst/ Securities Paper1/ Shares 12 8 9 10 11 8.5 5.6 15.8 13.8 12.1 20.2 4.9 4.8 6.2 31.3 11.9 19.5 39.3 9.1 -0.5 (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: 45.6 41.4 -7.7 8.1 10.2 8.7 5.3 3.0 2.6 16.2 15.0 7.9 11.4 9.4 12.2 2.8 7.0 17.8 18.7 11.2 8.2 1975 1975 9.4 7.6 4.4 0.9 7.8 7.8 13.4 10.4 18.2 16.0 10.0 6.1 -12.7 -2.9 15.2 15.2 20.9 17.6 5.7 6.5 6.7 31.3 5.7 -6.5 1ST HALF 1976 10.6 4.1 6.9 15.0 23.6 8.5 -29.7 14.0 16.8 6.3 1.2 15.9 3RD QTR. 1975 4TH OTR. 1975 5.6 9.4 2.9 -1.1 2.6 12.9 8.9 11.6 15.6 15.8 3.9 8.2 -23.8 19.2 17.4 12.5 17.0 17.6 6.8 6.0 19.2 41.3 -24.2 11.9 1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976 10.9 10.0 2.4 5.8 5.4 8.2 17.1 12.4 32.4 13.6 5.6 11.3 -46.8 -14.2 14.3 13.2 16.8 16.1 6.5 5.9 -3.6 6.0 7.7 23.6 1975 1975 8.5 8.4 6.6 0.2 4.7 9.7 12.7 9.8 18.9 14.4 8.0 6.6 -27.5 9.5 18.2 14.0 18.6 16.5 6.8 6.1 26.4 23.5 -23.7 -1.0 1ST QTR. 1976 2ND OTR. 1976 9.8 11.7 0.4 7.2 7.8 6.3 15.9 13.7 28.3 21.7 6.7 7.0 -29.3 -30.6 13.4 13.8 17.1 16.4 6.6 5.9 12.3 0.6 9.7 17.1 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 5.1 10.1 1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9 3.3 3.8 1.6 -4.3 7.1 -5.9 5.8 -3.8 5.8 13.7 13.5 11.0 14.0 6.4 6.0 10.7 13.6 10.1 17.8 15.1 13.4 11.7 14.6 20.5 11.2 0.0 0.6 10.0 12.8 1.7 -28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3 13.4 16.1 18.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.3 15.7 19.4 15.2 18.8 14.8 18.3 9.2 5.5 5.5 7.3 5.4 5.4 53.6 27.6 -23.2 21.6 63.8 34.9 -25.1 -28.5 -20.4 3.0 17.8 14.6 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY P 8.1 14.6 9.6 15.9 11.0 3.1 9.3 -1.1 3.8 4.3 14.6 5.3 -2.7 5.9 5.3 7.7 3.1 8.1 1.3 15.1 11.3 18.2 21.4 11.0 14.9 11.4 10.4 16.6 26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 12.1 4.0 0.6 9.1 5.6 19.0 20.9 -53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -29.5 -53.8 42.2 -17.0 13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.7 13.9 18.0 10.7 21.1 13.8 13.7 20.3 23.3 7.1 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 5.2 6.9 3.6 -19.6 5.4 0.0 0.0 18.0 19.5 8.7 5.7 8.6 17.0 25.1 27.3 26.7 1973 1974 1975 SEMI-ANNUALLY: IST HALF 2ND HALF QUARTERLY: QUARTERLY-AV: 3RD QTR. 4TH OTR. MONTHLY: 1/ P - GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF AUG. 13, 1976 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Sain Currency Demand Deposits Period Total vTime gs Credit Union Savings Bank & S&L Shares Bonds j Y Shares ndDpo Other Than CD's STotal ISavings Other 6 5 4 Term U.S. Gov't Sec / 14 12 13 56.3 67.3 38.3 41.8 41.6 6.6 8.4 8.4 7.3 5.6 7.6 65.6 65.9 66.2 60.8 62.2 61.0 42.1 41.1 40.4 6.8 7.0 7.0 4.3 3.6 6.9 32.4 32.8 33.3 66.6 66.9 67.2 62.1 65.4 67.3 40.5 41.1 41.6 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.6 9.6 7.6 399.9 404.6 409.6 33.8 34.1 34.7 67.6 68.0 68.3 67.5 66.4 66.7 41.9 42.1 42.4 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.0 10.9 10.9 71.4 68.2 70.6 414.4 419.0 423.1 35.1 35.5 36.1 68.6 69.0 69.3 66.7 66.7 67.7 43.0 43.9 44.9 7.5 7.6 8.4 7.2 7.4 9.8 221.7 69.6 428.0 36.8 69.7 68.8 45.9 8.8 9.0 9 10 11 323.5 341.6 395.5 24.7 27.7 33.3 60.4 63.3 67.2 50.3 82.1 78.8 79.1 373.3 378.8 383.5 31.0 31.5 31.9 206.5 208.7 209.0 80.9 81.8 82.9 387.8 391.8 395.5 164.1 170.2 173.5 211.1 211.8 211.9 79.2 75.4 73.2 390.2 393.9 397.3 176.7 179.4 179.4 215.5 214.5 217.9 472.3 402.8 181.1 3 Total NonCornGov't mercial Deposit Paper Funds Dempos Dep 7 1 2 61.5 67.8 73.7 209.0 215.3 221.0 364.4 419.1 452.4 300.9 329.3 369.6 127.3 136.2 160.5 173.6 193.1 209.0 63.5 89.8 82.9 71.3 71.9 72.0 220.6 221.3 221.6 437.6 436.2 438.3 355.5 357.4 359.2 150.8 152.7 154.4 204.7 204.7 204.8 OCT. NOV. DEC. 72.6 73.4 73.7 220.8 222.1 221.0 443.3 448.3 452.4 362.4 366.5 369.6 155.9 157.8 160.5 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. 74.2 75.1 75.7 220.8 221.5 222.3 454.4 457.3 458.5 375.2 381.9 385.4 APR. MAY JUNE 76.7 77.4 77.6 225.0 226.0 225.5 461.6 462.1 467.9 JULY P 78.2 226.6 8 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 MONTHLY: 1975--JULY AUG. SEPT. WEEKLY: 1976--JUNE 9 16 23 30 77.8 77.7 77.7 77.6 226.2 226.0 224.2 224.6 466.3 468.0 468.7 471.5 396.6 397.6 397.7 399.5 179.7 179.2 179.2 179.2 216.9 218.4 218.4 220.3 69. 70.4 71.1 72.0 7.7 8.4 9.1 8.8 8.2 9.3 10.3 10.4 JULY 7 14 21 28 77.8 78.3 78.2 78.3 226.6 226.3 227.8 226.5 472.0 472.8 472.7 472.6 400.6 402.3 403.0 404.4 179.6 180.7 181.4 182.1 221.0 221.6 221.6 222.3 71.5 70.4 69.7 68.2 8.5 8.5 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.3 8.9 8.6 AUG. 4 78.4 227.1 471.2 404.7 182.6 222.1 66.5 8.7 11.0 1/ 2/ P - ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 

Federal Reserve (1976, August 16). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760817

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760817,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Aug},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760817},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}