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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC July 16, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC July 16, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent Developments (1) M1 declined at a 1.2 per cent annual rate in June. Although growth is expected to resume in July, expansion over the June-July period is now projected at only a 2½ per cent annual rate, below the 3½ per cent lower bound of the Committee's operating range. Growth in M2 slowed to a 5¼ per cent annual rate in June, mainly because of the weakness in M1. How- ever, expansion in the time and savings deposit component of M 2 also slowed somewhat; passbook savings declined and growth in small-denomination time deposits slackened, but there was a partially offsetting increase in large non-negotiable CD's. These shifts apparently were prompted by the higher interest rates generally available on market instruments and on bank CD's following the increases of May. However, growth in bank time and savings deposits (other than CD's) strengthened considerably in early July, and for the June-July period, M2 is now projected to expand at a 7¾ per cent rate, close to the mid-point of the Committee's range. Deposit growth slowed in June at thrift institutions also. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over June-July Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates M1 3½ to 7½ 2.6 M2 6 to 10 7.7 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) Avg. for statement week ending June 23 5.45 30 5.58 7 14 5.37 5.27 July -2(2) In the week following the June 22 Committee meeting, incoming data suggested that over the June-July period M1 and M2 would expand at rates not far from--although slightly below--the mid-points of their respective ranges. Accordingly, the Desk aimed at reserve availability consistent with maintaining the then-prevailing Federal funds rate of 5-1/2 per cent. The projected growth rates in the aggregates were lowered in the two subsequent weeks, however, and the Desk became more accommodative in its reserve provision, seeking to move the Federal funds rate toward 5-3/8 per cent in the July 7 statement week and toward 5-1/4 per cent in the July 14 week. Data becoming available in the current statement week have tended to support the expectation of a low M1 growth rate, but the projection for M2 has been raised somewhat. Under the circumstances, the Desk is continuing to aim for an average funds rate around 5-1/4 per cent. (3) Nonborrowed reserves appear to be increasing in the JuneJuly period at about a 4-1/2 per cent annual rate, less than the rate the staff had thought would be consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted by the FOMC at its last meeting.1 / This shortfall is due entirely to the slower-than-expected growth in demand deposits, and therefore, in required reserves. The shortfall would have been even greater had not the average level of excess reserves in the period been raised substantially above projections by an unusually large buildup of excess reserves during the July 7 statement week. 1/ Appendix A contains a discussion of the actual behavior of nonborrowed reserves in the weeks between the June and July meetings relative to the behavior that was expected to be consistent with the Committee's short-run ranges for monetary growth. (As indicated, the comments in the text above apply to the 2-month June-July period.) (4) Short-term interest since the June Committee meeting. rates have fallen 20 to 40 basis points Following a period of stability in late June, most rates began to move down near the end of the month, and they declined further in early July as market participants responded to the decline in the Federal funds rate. Business short-term credit demands expanded somewhat in June for the second successive month, but the rise was confined to the commercial paper market; businesses resumed their paydown of bank debt. The Treasury continued to run off bills in its weekly auctions in June and early July. However, with borrowing needs substantially greater in the third quarter than in the second quarter, the Treasury has gradually reduced the volume of bills redeemed weekly and it has announced that it will roll over all maturing issues in next Monday's bill auction. (5) The declines in short-term rates in early June were accompanied by reductions in bond yields of about 5 to 15 basis points. Bond markets also were favorably influenced by the data that became available during the period on prices and economic activity and by the prospect of a greatly reduced calendar of new corporate and municipal bond issues in July and August. For home mortgages, interest rates in the primary market continued to edge higher until early July. (6) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. SJune Past Past Six Calendar Twelve ..,Months ar .....MMnths ._. e June '76 June '76 over over 1975 '75 Dec. '75 Past Three Months June '76 over Mar. '75 Past Month June '76 over May '76 Nonborrowed reserves 1.3 -.2 -1.2 3.1 6.6 Total reserves -.4 -.4 -1.2 3.9 7.0 Monetary Base 5.8 6.3 6.7 8.8 6.9 4.1 4.1 5.6 6.7 -1.2 8.5 9.0 10.8 9.8 5.2 11.3 11.4 12.0 11.0 7.5 (M2 plus CD's) 6.4 6.1 6.3 7.6 8.5 M 5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.7 9.3 9.0 9.5 9.4 Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 3.9 3.1 3.1 4.9 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.3 2.1 -.6 -1.1 -2.1 -.9 2.4 -.2 .1 .5 .6 .8 Concepts of Money M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 12 (Ml plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) M Bank Credit 16.3 Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 1/ 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (7) Shown below for the Committee's consideration are three alternative sets of longer-run growth ranges for the monetary aggregates, together with the current ranges for the QI '76 to QI '77 period adopted by the Committee in April. from QII '76 to QII '77. The alternatives pertain to the one-year period More detailed figures, including quarterly average levels and growth rates based on mid-point paths, are shown in the tables on pages 5a and 5b. Projected patterns for the Federal funds rate are shown for the three alternatives in Appendix table II. M1 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Current 5½ to 8 4½ to 7 3½ to 6 4½ to 7 6½ to 9 7½ to 10 M2 9 to 11½ 7½ to 10 M3 9½ to 12½ 8 to 11 Credit Proxy 5½ to 8½ 5 to 8 (8) 7 to 10 4½ to 7½ 9 to 12 6 to 9 Of the three alternatives, B encompasses the current range for M1, which is centered on a 5¾ per cent growth rate. The current 7 to 10 per cent range for M 2 appears to be generally consistent with that M1 range. However, on the basis of recent experience, it appears that the pattern of gradually rising short-term interest rates anticipated under B would lead to a slowing of inflows to thrift institutions more consistent with an 8 to 11 per cent range for M3. In connection with the M 3 range, it might be noted that the Committee did not reduce the upper bound at its April meeting when it lowered the upper limits for M1 and M2. -5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 M2 Alt. A Alt..B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 June July August 303.0 304.6 306.5 303.0 304.6 306.3 303.0 304.6 306.0 700.2 706.2 712.8 700.2 706.2 712.1 700.2 706.2 711.4 1158.4 1169.4 1182.0 1158.4 1169.4 1180.9 1158.4 1169.4 1179o7 1976 QII 302.7 306.5 312.3 302.7 306.3 311.3 302.7 306.0 310.2 696.4 712.8 732.2 696.4 711.9 728.0 696.4 711.1 724.9 1150.2 1181.8 1217.1 1150.2 1180.4 1209.4 1150.2 1179.1 1203.7 318,1 323.3 316.0 320.1 313.5 316.9 749.7 765.9 742.3 756.3 736.7 748.7 1247.8 1276.6 1233.9 1258.5 1224.7 1246.5 10.3 10.0 10.3 8.8 11.4 12.9 11.4 11.8 11.4 10.6 8.4 7.8 11.0 11.9 10.5 10.1 8.3 QIII QIV QI 1977 QII Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 July August 6.3 7.5 6.3 6.7 6.3 5.5 10.3 11.2 5.0 7.6 4.8 6.5 4.4 5.5 10.9 6.0 5.2 4.3 4.3 9.6 8.6 6.5 6.5 10.1 9.2 8.1 8.0 7,.0 7.1 6.3 7.0 5.7 5.7 5.0 4.3 10.3 9.2 8.2 6.6 11.6 9.8 10.3 8.1 9.3 7.1 7.3 6.8 6.6 5.7 5.7 4.7 10.7 8.8 7.5 11.8 11.0 10.6 9.4 9.7 8.4 Quarterly Average: QIII 1976 QIV QI QII 1977 Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77 9.4 9.8 Annual QI '76-QI '77 QII '76-QII '77 10,0 -5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 June July August 770.8 776.9 783.6 770.8 776.9 783.2 770.8 776.9 782.5 1229.0 1240.1 1252.8 1229.0 1240.1 1252.0 1229.0 1240.1 1250.9 522.3 523.5 528.4 522.3 523.5 528.1 522.3 523.5 527.8 1976 QII 766.5 783.6 803.6 766.5 783,1 800.6 766.5 782.4 798.2 1220.3 1252.6 1288.4 1220.3 1251.6 1282.0 1220.3 1250.4 1277.1 518.3 527,7 537,7 518.3 527.5 536.2 518.3 527.1 534.7 822.7 841.7 817.2 834.5 813.2 829.4 1320.7 1352.4 1308.8 1336.7 1301.2 1327.3 546.1 555.3 543.0 551.2 540.8 548.7 2.8 11.2 2.8 10.5 QIII QIV 1977 QI QII reamth Rates Monthly: 1976 July August 9.5 8.6 10.8 12.3 10.8 10.8 11.5 10.5 8.7 8.9 8.3 8.1 10.6 11.4 10.3 9.7 9.9 8.5 7.6 7.1 6.6 6.8 5.8 8.3 8.5 7,5 8.0 10.0 9.6 8.4 8.5 7.5 8.0 6.2 6,7 5.1 6.0 4.6 5.8 8.9 8.5 8.3 7.8 11.2 9.9 10.1 8.5 9.3 7.9 7.5 6.5 6.9 5.6 6.3 5.2 8.5 8.9 8.0 8.2 10.8 10.8 9.8 9.5 9.2 8.8 6.0 7.1 5.4 6.3 5.0 5.9 9.5 10.3 Quarterly Averages: 1976 QIII QIV 1977 QI QII 8.9 10.2 7.3 Semi-annual QII '76-QIV '76 QIV '76-QII '77 Annual QI '76-Q1 '77 QII '76-QII '77 -6(9) Alternatives A and C call for longer-run M1 ranges one percentage point higher and lower, respectively, than that shown under alternative B. Alternative C would compensate for the second-quarter overshoot in M 1 , in that M1 would be expected to reach roughly the same level in the first quarter of 1977 as that implied by a 5¾ per cent growth rate measured from the first quarter of 1976. To reach this level, M1 would have to expand at about a 4¾ per cent annual rate over the three quarters ending with the first quarter of 1977. (10) Short-run operating ranges corresponding generally to the longer-run alternatives are summarized below. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 5 to 9 4½ to 8½ 4 to 8 M2 9 to 13 8 to 12 7½ to 11½ 4¼ to 5¼ 4¾ to 5¾ Ranges for July-August Federal funds rate 1/ 5¼ to 6¼ (intermeeting period) (11) Alternative B assumes a Federal funds rate range over the next four weeks centered on 5¼ per cent, the Desk's most recent objective; alternatives A and C assume some easing and some tightening, respectively. Under all three alternatives, growth in M1 is expected to pick up appreciably in the July-August period, on the assumption that various factors which appear to have depressed M1 balances in June--despite rising nominal GNP--will no longer be operating. These factors include the lagged 1/ Reserve aggregates thought to be consistent with these ranges are shown in Appendix table I. -7adjustment of money balances to desired levels following the April surge, the unusually heavy use by corporations of demand deposit balances to make tax payments in June, and an unexpected and probably temporary slowing in currency growth. Also, a draw-down in the first half of July of the Treasury's unusually high end-of-June cash balance may add, at least temporarily, to private demand balances. (12) Under alternative B, the annual rate of growth of M1 in the July-August period is expected to be in a 4½ to 8½ range. (On average from the second to the third quarter, M 1 is expected to grow at only a 4¾ per cent annual rate for arithmetic reasons--specifically, because the second quarter average is high relative to the June level.) Given the projection for nominal GNP, if growth in M1 over the QII '76-QII '77 period is to be constrained to 5¾ per cent--the mid-point of the alternative B longer-run growth range--it is likely that short-term interest rates would have to begin moving up later in the summer. Under this alternative, the funds rate is expected to reach 7 per cent in early 1977 and to rise marginally further in the spring. (13) If the funds rate remains around 5¼ per cent over the next four weeks, short-term interest rates are unlikely to change significantly. Inflows of time and savings deposits other than negotiable CD's at banks can be expected to be higher than in June as a result of the declines in interest rates since mid-year. Over the July-August period, M2 might expand at an annual rate in an 8 to 12 per cent range. As the year pro- gresses, however, rising market rates would probably slow net inflows of -8time and savings deposits somewhat. The alternative B projection assumes an upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceilings in early 1977. (14) Alternative C contemplates a modest tightening of the money market over the next few weeks, with the Federal funds rate moving to the 5-3/4 per cent mid-point of the funds rate range. Subsequently, interest rates undoubtedly would have to rise appreciably further if M1 growth over the QII '76 to QII '77 period is to be constrained to the 4-3/4 per cent mid-point of the longer-run range. might be around 8-1/4 per cent. By the spring of 1977, the funds rate Under these circumstances, inflows of funds into small-denomination deposits at banks and thrift institutions in the first half of 1977 would be depressed by the greater relative attractiveness of rates on market instruments, even though under this alternative Regulation Q ceilings are assumed to be relaxed in the fourth quarter of 1976. (15) Alternative A contemplates more rapid growth in the monetary aggregates over QII '76-QII '77--including a 6-3/4 per cent growth rate for M1 --and some near-term easing of money market conditions, with the funds rate range centering on 4-3/4 per cent. With economic expansion continu- ing, however, it would be expected that interest rates would have to begin rising in early fall, with the funds rate reaching 5-3/4 per cent by early 1977 and 6-1/2 per cent in the spring. Under these conditions, inflows of interest-bearing deposits would probably accelerate for a time and M2 and M3 would remain quite strong into early winter--before slowing as rates on market securities become more attractive. (16) Over the July-August period, corporate and municipal bond offerings are expected to recede more than seasonally from their recent high levels. The Treasury is expected to take advantage of this reduced forward calendar to continue its debt-lengthening operations. During the third quarter the Treasury is expected to raise in the neighborhood of $14 billion of new money, and it appears that about one-half of this amount will be raised in the forthcoming intermeeting period. In addition, the Treasury will also have to refund $4.6 billion of publicly held debt maturing on August 15. (17) Increases in bond yields over the balance of the year are expected to be relatively small. Business and other credit demands on banks can be expected to strengthen somewhat over the second half as inventory and fixed capital expenditures increase and long-term borrowing slows. Under alternative B, and especially under C, banks would be likely to reduce their acquisitions of Treasury securities and to borrow in CD and Eurodollar markets. Under alternative A, inflows of other deposits should reduce the need for banks to rely on such sources of funds over the balance of the year. -10Proposed directive (18) Presented below are four alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive. The first three are couched in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead and are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. The fourth alternative is proposed in the event that the Committee wishes to formulate its instructions in terms of money market conditions and to maintain the conditions now prevailing. Alternative "Monetary Aggregates" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions conmoderate]SUBSTANTIAL growth in monetary aggregates sistent with[DEL: over the period ahead. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. -11Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with[DEL: moderate]MODEST growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. "Money Market" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates]over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Appendix A Comparison of Actual and Targeted Reserves The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the four-week period ending July 21 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting. Actual1 / Targeted 1. (2+3) Nonborrowed reserves 2. 3. Required reserves (4-5) Free reserves Differences 34,428 34,339 89 34,208 34,268 -60 220 71 149 4. Excess reserves 356 239 117 5. Member bank borrowing 136 168 -32 34,564 34,506 58 80,505 80,759 -254 115,069 115,265 -196 6. 7. (1+5) Total Reserves Currency 8. (6+7) Monetary base As can be seen from the table, even though required reserves were $60 million lower than anticipated during the intermeeting period, non- borrowed reserves were about $90 million higher than "targeted." Banks held more excess reserves and borrowed less than had been thought consistent with the ranges specified for the monetary aggregates. Required reserves were below expectations because of weakness in deposits subject to reserves, which was only partly offset by a slightly lower multiplier between lagged deposits and current required reserves. 1/ Includes week of July 21, which is partly estimated. A -2 Despite the strength in ndnborrowed reserves, total reserves were only slightly larger than anticipated because of the shortfall in member bank borrowings. The monetary base, however, was well below "target" because the growth in currency in circulation was much smaller than expected. Achievement of the nonborrowed reserve "target" during the period would have resulted in a higher Federal funds rate, possibly near the upper end of the 5¾ to 5¾ per cent range adopted by the FOMC. On the other hand, if the Desk had attempted to achieve the "targeted" monetary base, the Federal funds rate would have been much lower than actually prevailed. Appendix Table I Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Average of 4 weeks July 28 to August 18 ($ million) Alt. A Nonborrowed reserves Member bank borrowing Excess reserves Alt. B Alt. C Change from average of previous 4-week period ($ million) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. 2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for July-August C 34,491 34,452 34,319 63 53 81 195 -83 -55 183 173 163 -173 -183 34,544 34,534 34,514 -20 -30 -50 115,533 115,523 115,503 464 454 115,480 115,442 115,308 547 509 24 -109 Alt. A 8.2 Alt. B Alt. 7.1 4.7 6.9 6.6 6.2 434 6.7 6.6 6.5 375 7.1 6.7 6.0 59 -- -193 Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves Monetary base1/ Nonborrowed monetary base 1/ Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks. C Appendix Table II Projected Federal Funds Rates 1976 QIII QIV 1977 QI QII Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 4% 5k 6 5 6k 7% Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) (Revised Series) M2 M 1973 3 M Q M q 7.4- 7.3 9.2 8.4 10.3 I 3.6 II 10.1 6.4 9.9 8.2 9.8 8.5 III 1.8 5.5 6.3 7.9 6.1 7.8 IV 7.8 5.1 10.5 9.0 9.9 8.4 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.0 6.2 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 I 5.3 6.0 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.9 II 5.3 5.6 6,9 7.4 5.7 6.5 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 IV 4.7 4.0 6.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.7 5.0 7.2 7,7 6.8 7.1 1975 1.4 0.6 6.9 5.6 9.0 7.5 II 9.7 7.4 12.5 III 3.6 7.1 6.5 Iv 1.6 2.3 7.0 6.4 QIV '74-QIV '75 4.1 4.4 8.5 8.3 11.3 11.1 1976 4.3 2,6 11.5 10.1 12.6 11.4 6.7 8.4 9.8 11.2 11.0 12.2 1974 III I I II 10.2 14.5 12,6 10.1 10.7 13.3 9.3 9.4 M - Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q - Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II- FOMC 7/16/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 320 -300 7%% growth for June-July -280 II II I II II II I II I I I II I II I I I g MONEY SUPPLY M2 730 I -1 710 I I I 690 670 650 630 1975 1976 A M J 1976 J A CHART 2 7/16/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 540 520 500 I I I I I I I I I RESERVES I I0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -- TOTAL 35 NONBORROWED 1975 1976 fotal and nonborrowed reserve series have been adlusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios CHART 3 7/16/76 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT -1 8 _J 4 INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT 1 10 F.R. DISCOUNT RATE FEDERAL FUNDSI RATE 1975 1976 1975 1976 1975 1976 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 1 BANK RESERVES JULY16, 1976 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period REQUIRED RESERVES Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 34,024 34,136 34.335 (34,388) 33,980 34,022 34,208 (34,278) 113,333 113 994 114,654 (115,106) 33,669 33,927 34,121 (34,125) 19,783 19,990 19,953 (19,894) 11,931 11,750 11.843 (12,017) MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1976--APR. MAY JUNE JULY ( Z'155 2,186 2,325 2,214) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 1.4 -6.2 3.9 4.5 -5.3 3.1 7.3 4.6 8.8 0.5 -5.7 4.0 -3.4 -2.0 6.0 4.1 -11.0 -0.9 0.6 -3.6 0.8 2.7 -3.2 0.5 5.6 5.3 8.5 -0.1 -3.6 1.2 -2.1 -1.0 4.2 -0.6 -6.5 -4.4 QUARTERLY-AV 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. MONTHLY 1976--APR. MAY JUNE JULY JUNE-JULY ( 0.7 4.0 7.0 1.9) ( 1.1 1.5 6.6 2.5) ( 4.4) I 4.5) I 1 12.2 7.0 6.9 4.7) 5.91 ( 3.2 2.1 6.9 0.1) I 3.5) ( 7.6 12.6 -2.2 -3.5) ( 6.1 -18.2 9.5 17.6) ( -2.9) I 13.6) WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS NOTE9 1976--JUNE 2 9 16 23 30 34,219 33,939 34,438 34,031 34,963 33,977 33,846 34,389 33,866 34 797 114,420 114,213 114,784 114,389 115,299 33,766 34,009 33,867 34,211 34 498 19,857 19,91. 19,996 19,931 19 999 11,704 11,760 11,821 11,884 11,946 2,205 2,335 2,049 2,396 2553 JULY 7 14 34,855 34,094 34,731 33,920 114,996 114,851 34 200 34,041 19 915 19.820 11,961 12,053 2t324 2.168 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. Table 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MONETARY AGGREGATES JULY 16, 1976 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (Ml) (M2) 1 2 Period Adjusted Total Credit U.S. Govt. Proxy Deposits 3 4 Nondeposit Time and Savings Deposits ther Than C Total ings 6 7 8 Total 5 ' CD'S 9 e er Sources of U.S. ovt. Funds Deposits 10 11 MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976--APR. MAY JUNE JULY 301.7 303.3 303.0 (304.6) 691.9 697.2 UO0.2 517. 515.3 522.3 (523.) r'706.Z) 7.2 7.4 9.8 9.0) 461.6 462.0 467.9 1472.4) 390.2 393.9 397.2 (401.61 176.1 179.4 179.3 (180.21 213.5 214.5 217.9 (221.5) 71.4 68.2 70.6 ( 70.7) ( 7.5 7.6 8.4 8.41 ( 2.5 2.3 3.7 2.91 X ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975-4TH QTR. 1976--ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 1.6 4.3 6.7 7.0 11.5 9.8 7.0 1.2 4.9 12.9 5.4 8.2 11.6 17.1 12.2 15.8 32.4 13.4 8.2 5.6 11.3 19.2 -46.8 -14.2 2.3 2.6 8.4 6.4 10.1 11.2 6.0 2.3 2.4 9.7 7.8 6.2 9.8 15.9 13.7 14.4 28.3 21.7 6.6 6.7 7.0 9.5 -29.3 -30.6 14.9 6.4 -1.2 6.3) ( 14.9 9.2 5.2 10.3) ( 3.0 -4.6 16.3 2.8) ( 8.1 1.0 15.3 11.5) ( 14.9 11.4 10.1 13.3) ( 22.1 18.3 -0.7 6.0) 9.1 5.6 19.0 19.8) ( -29.5 -53.8 42.2 1.7) 2.6) 1 7.71 ( 9.5) ( 13.51 ( 11.7) ( 2.71 19.6) ( 22.0) QUARTERLY-AV 1975--4TH QTR. 1976-15T QTR. 2ND QTR. MONTHLY 1976--A PR NAY JUNE JULY JUNE-JULY ( ( ( WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976--JUNE JULY NOTE: 1/ P - 2 9 16 23 30 7 P 304.2 304.0 303.7 301.9 301.7 699.7 700.6 701.3 699.5 701.2 516.4 520.6 524.2 522.9 522.7 8.7 8.2 9.3 10.3 10.4 464.2 466.3 468.0 468.7 471.5 395.5 396.6 397.6 397.7 399.5 179.6 179.7 179.2 179.2 179.2 215.9 216.9 218.4 218.4 220.2 68.7 69.7 70.4 71.1 72.0 7.4 7.7 8.4 9.1 8.8 2.8 4.5 5.3 3.8 2.5 304.3 705.1 522.6 9.5 472.4 400.9 179.7 221.2 71.5 8.5 2.2 -1-DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL PRELIMINARY -I RESERVE I BANKS. - - CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JULY 16, 1976 TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 Within 1-year Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 10 0 5 - 1 1 - 5 Total Within 1-year 46 120 439 191 -490 7,232 1,280 -468 87 207 320 337 789 579 797 3,284 539 500 434 1,510 167 129 196 1,070 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 10 5 5 - 10 1- 592 400 1,665 824 253 244 659 460 168 101 318 138 -2 -- Total Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ Net RP'6/ 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 1,086 218 1,135 454 273 2,079 - -- -2 3,076 230 Qtr. III Qtr. IV -757 1,294 13 74 712 385 201 234 171 315 1,096 1,006 64 58 514 141 106 71 63 14 747 284 1,060 2,626 2,392 -1,403 1976--Qtr. I Qtr. II -363 2,067 115 109 554 796 226 245 156 134 1,052 1,284 102 3 288 140 108 57 38 40 535 240 1,022 3,371 1,256 1,654 1976--Jan. Feb. -1,596 1,275 37 40 110 366 100 63 73 59 321 528 26 76 139 149 47 61 27 11 240 297 -1,030 2,029 3,597 -3,129 Mar. -42 38 78 63 24 203 - - -- -- -- 23 788 Apr. May June 513 -292 1,845 27 -83 179 617 51 195 38 -96 294 -990 3 - 140 -- -57 -- -40 -- -240 - 758 -122 2,735 1,261 -958 1,351 3 -140 ---57 -40 --240 242 -634 277 792 -2,077 522 605 -1,115 --- --- --- -587 -310 911 1,484 1,240 -5,170 -1,068 5,443 -147 3.157 -- -- - -481 -791 -3,126 -1,003 1975--Qtr. II 1976--May June July 5 12 19 26 240 -626 298 597 -- --- --- ----- --- - 2 9 16 23 30 -572 -302 949 909 861 28 55 --387 229 ---112 83 --64 32 --591 399 -- ------ 7 14 -472 -783 - --- --- --- -- - - - 21 28 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JULY 16, 1976 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Underwriting Syndicate Positions Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit at FRB** __Borrowing Corporate Municipal Excess** Period Bills (1) Coupon Issues (2) Bonds (3) Bonds (4) Reserves (5) Total (6) Seasonal (7) 8 New York (8) 38 Others (9) 1975--High Low 7,029 1,586 2,845 253 464 0 389 48 804 -42 609 17 74 5 -7,387 -1,757 -11,632 - 7,207 1976--High Low 6,821 3,668 1,684 175 334 0 249 34 655 -106 242 24 29 8 -6,686 -2,367 -12,660 - 6,695 1975--June 5,201 1,351 89 118 201 227 11 -5,821 - 9,344 July Aug. 4,321 4,020 1,246 1,204 60 44 135 181 188 195 259 211 17 37 -5,546 -3,964 - 9,896 - 9,966 Sept. 5,008 588 31 122 191 397 58 -3,551 - 9,015 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5,766 4,751 4,822 1,480 2,073 1,075 14 156 95 123 173 103 161 251 265 189 60 130 65 29 14 -2,644 -3,812 -2,811 - 9,202 -10,159 -10,418 1976--Jan. Feb. 4,959 5,214 1,220 1,051 34 66 97 181 232 256 79 81 9 10 -3,581 -4,138 - 9,746 -10,015 Mar. 5,910 778 43 151 223 54 8 -4,726 - 9,640 Apr. May June 5,750 4.239 *4,996 605 591 *582 69 95 100 133 199 196 155 210 258p 43 114 132p 10 11 20p -5,179 -4,402 4 2 - , 70p -10,783 - 8,151 - 8,943p 137 236 175 249 441 -33 245 78 30 55 122 136 11 9 10 11 -4,214 -6,126 -4,789 -3,183 - 1976--May 5 12 19 26 4,309 4,620 3,915 3,668 548 949 509 470 110 65 70 135 June 2 5,266 175 10 199 453 242 17 -3,235 - 7,605 9 5,052 636 30 223 -70 93 12 -5,370 -10,581 16 23 5,777 *4,445 522 *561 25 334 201 160 571 -180 49 165 -4,916 -3,701 - 9,561 - 9,559 30 *4,495p *793 213 204 p 16 6p 16 22 -3,154 - 6,908 55p 52p 124p 177 p 26p 23 p July 7 14 21 28 *5,263 *5,630 *1,264 *1,015 228 2 15p 146 135p 46 5 6 2 9p 28 -5,0 p -6.126p 7,390 9,329 8,523 8,124 - 7,880p 6 5 -10, 1p NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Feder funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL **Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JULY 16, 1976 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per cent) Short-Term Federal Funds (1) 90-Day (2) 1-Year (3) 90-119 Day Commercial Paper (4) 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 7.31 5.46 1976--High Low 5.58 4.70 5.53 4.73 June 5.55 July Treasury Bills Long-Term II CD's New Issue-NYC I Aaa Utility Recently New Offered Issue (8) (7) Municipal Bond Buyer (9) U.S. Govt. (20yr. Constant Maturity) (10) FNMA Auction Yield (11) GNMA Guaranteed Securities (12) 60-Day (5) 90-Day (6) 8.43 5.38 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 9.95 8.78 9.10 7.93 6.32 5.35 5.90 5.00 5.63 4.75 5.75 4.88 8.95 8.38 8.94 8.44 9.20 8.83 8.45 8.00 5.34 5.86 5.67 5.34 5.51 9.25 9.33 9.09 8.34 Sept. 6.10 6.14 6.24 6.13 6.44 6.42 6.64 7.16 7.20 6.32 6.59 6.79 6.05 6.31 6.44 6.25 6.63 6.81 9.41 9.46 9.68 9.43 9.49 9.57 9.14 9.41 9.78 8.50 8.75 8.97 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.82 5.22 5.20 5.96 5.48 5.44 6.48 6.07 6.16 6.35 5.78 5.88 6.08 5.69 5.65 6.45 6.03 5.83 9.45 9.20 9.36 9.43 9.26 9.23 9.80 9.80 9.31 8.87 8.50 8.56 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.87 4.77 4.84 4.87 4.88 5.00 5.44 5.53 5.82 5.15 5.13 5.25 4.91 4.84 5.05 5.03 5.06 5.20 8.70 8.63 8.62 8.79 8.63 8.61 9.10 9.06 9.05 8.37 8.29 8.30 4.82 5.29 5.48 4.86 5.20 5.41 5.54 5.98 6.12 5.08 5.44 5.83 4.81 5.25 5.55 4.94 5.38 5.68 8.48 8.82 8.72 8.52 8.77 8.73 8.89 9.09 9.13 8.10 8.33 5 12 19 26 5.03 5.02 5.28 5.50 4.88 5.04 5.21 5.44 5.65 5.79 6.01 6.20 5.13 5.25 5.43 5.68 5.00 5.13 5.38 5.50 5.13 5.25 5.50 5.63 8.68 8.82 8.82 8.95 8.62 8.78 8.83 8.84 8.94 8.16 8.16 8.44 8.44 2 9 16 23 30 5.54 5.44 5.47 5.48 5.58 5.53 5.46 5.40 5.36 5.34 6.32 6.17 6.07 6.06 6.08 5.81 5.88 5.90 5.85 5.68 5.63 5.63 5.63 5.50 5.38 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.63 5.50 8.83 8.71 8.69 8.70 8.72 8.80 8.76 8.70 8.74 8,67 Period Aug. Apr. May June 1976--May June July 7 14 21 28 Daily-July 8 15 5.37 5.27 5.38 5.21 6.03 5.75 5.39 2 5. 5p 5.33 5.11 5.87 5.67 5.50 5.25 5.63 5.38 8.58 8.53 p 8.57 8.53p 9.13 6.89 6.86 6.85 6.87 F,87 6.78 6.78 8.35 9.20 8.44 8.39 9.14 8.34 8.34 9.12 8.34 7.98 7.95p 7.98 7.96 (7/14) VKOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FHMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FRA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 baris points below the current WFA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES JULY 16, 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES Total Period Total 1 orr borrowed onedary Base Sments 2 Adj. Credit Loans and M1 M 4 5 6 7 proxy Invest- M3 M4 M5 6 M7 9 10 10 111 11 12 11.6 t.4 10.6 9.0 9.7 11.1 8.9 10.0 11.9 8.9 9.7 9 Z (Per cent annual rates of growth) ;,NNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 6.7 7.1 -0.4 6.0 9.2 1.3 7.7 9.2 5.8 0.5 0.2 3.9 13.8 9.2 4.4 6.0 4.7 4t.1 5.6 5.7 4.5 3.1 4.2 5.6 2.6 10.1 6.9 5.7 9.9 9.2 9.5 10.0 9.4 4.5 8.7 8.. 7. 8. 8.8 6.8 11.3 10.6 SEM1-ANNUALLY: 11.9 1'S HALF 2ND HALF 1975 1975 -1.2 0.3 1.7 0.9 1ST 1916 -1.2 -1.2 6.7 3.1 4.9 5.6 12.0 6.3 9.0 6.5 1975 1975 -0.8 1.4 -2.8 4.5 4.1 7.3 -0.8 3.0 8.4 8.1 10.0 8.6 11.3 11.3 -6.2 3.9 -5.3 3.1 4.6 8.6 7.7 7.7 9.2 9.6 0.1 0.6 -1.9 2.7 6.3 5.6 0.8 -3.2 0.5 5.3 8.5 12.2 -3.2 -3.1 6.5 -5.8 0.0 12.7 -3.3 -4.3 0.8 14.3 -1.6 13.3 4.7 4.9 2.6 3.6 11.1 7.0 -8.4 -6.9 -0.8 1.1 1.5 6.6 2.6 4.0 7.0 12.2 7.0 6.9 -0.7 3.5 3.5 0.9 3.0 -4.6 16.3 5.9 HALF 9.5 C!UARTERLY: 3R~D; TR. 41H WTR. 1976 1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. 197b OUART ERLY-AV: 3RD fiTR. 4TH OTR. 1975 1975 15) QTR. 2ND QTR. 1976 1976 -3.8 4.2 3.6 10.7 7.0 4.6 1.6 9.3 1.2 5.5 4.3 4.9 4.3 6.7 12.6 11.0 5.0 7.6 1.4 6.0 4.4 7.1 2.3 13.3 9.4 5.7 6.7 2.3 2.4 3.8 2.6 8.4 11.4 5.7 7.1 14.2 3.7 5.3 1.6 -0.8 9.0 -3.2 17.4 13.2 10.3 8.5 8.7 11.9 12.9 5.1 7.1 5.3 1.2 5.7 6.1 14.9 6.4 11.9 14.7 10.8 3.5 7.0 6.0 5.4 12.2 8.4 9.5 10.1 9.4 7.5 9.9 9.5 9.6 8.6 9.5 8.7 8.S 8.7 9.2 15.0 10.0 5.9 8.2 9.9 12.1 7.7 14.9 11.9 7.0 6.5 10.3 14.3 8.9 13.5 7.2 9.8 7.9 12.0 6.8 9.4 7.1 8.2 7.7 11.1 6.4 7.1 8.0 7.8 11.3 7.0 9.7 10.3 10.7 MONTHLY: 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE P NOTES: 1/ P - 3.9 -6.3 9.7 0.8 -10.2 -6.8 -1.7 0.7 4.0 7.0 -2.6 5.2 5.9 14.4 0.7 7.5 1.0 5.9 5.7 6.4 9.8 -2.3 6.9 5.4 5.4 2.1 14.7 10.6 7.5 -1.2 ** ** *aa m ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY * TO RESERVE -0.5 4.3 7.9 11.7 4.3 10.9 3.1 8.5 Ij j I REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANK- 10.6 6.0 5.7 10.1 14.3 9.1 APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES JULY 16, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Period Total 1 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES on borrowed Monetary Base Adj. Credit proxy 2 3 4 I Total Loans and Investments 5 1976 M1 M M M4 M5 M6 M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 32,390 34,693 34,539 319092 33,966 34,409 96,051 104,892 110,930 449.4 495.3 514.4 637.7 695.2 725.5 270.5 283.1 294.8 571.4 612.4 664.3 919.5 981.6 1092.9 634.9 702.2 747.2 dZ .9 1071.1 1175.8 1093.7 1191.0 1310.3 113 .0 12j2 .7 1351.9 34,490 34,263 107,833 506.5 709.7 291.0 642.4 1040.2 7.6.5 LL124.3 1.47.7 1290.7 JULY AUG. SEPT. 34,399 34,310 34,421 34,098 34,099 34,024 108,254 108,694 108,949 505.1 503.3 505.5 710.3 713.8 717.2 291.9 293.2 293.6 647.5 650.6 652.9 1051.6 1060.6 1068.1 729.6 729.3 731.9 1133.7 1139.3 1147.1 1260.1 1267.5 1274.4 1302.1 1308.6 1314.8 OCT. NOV. DEC. 349239 34,515 34,539 34,048 34,455 34,409 109,279 110,287 110,930 508.0 514.1 514.4 721.0 726.9 725.5 293.4 295.6 294.8 655.8 662.1 664.3 1075.8 1086.5 1092.9 736.7 743.9 747.2 1156.6 1168.3 1175.6 1:25.3 1300.6 1310.3 1325 .9 1341.7 1351.9 34,245 34,052 34,003 34,167 33,971 33,949 111,171 111,538 112,192 514.1 515.6 516.0 727.6 731.2 735.4 295.1 296.5 298.0 670.2 678.5 683.4 1103.7 1117.2 1127.3 749.4 753.8 756.5 1182.9 1192.6 1200.5 1318.0 1327.0 1335.5 1359.9 1369.0 1377.9 34,024 34,136 34,335 33,980 34,022 34,208 113,333 113,994 114,654 517.3 515.3 522.3 38.7 742.0 743.3 301.7 303.3 303.0 691.9 697.2 700.2 1141.1 1151.2 1158.4 763.4 765.4 770.8 1212.5 1219.4 1229.0 1347.9 1355.1 1366.1 1390.9 1399.0 1411.0 12 19 26 33,693 34,187 33,991 33,638 34,065 33,855 113,472 114,103 113,843 516.4 515.1 517.1 304.6 303.1 302.9 698.2 697.3 697.6 766.4 764.8 7t5.6 JUNE 2 9 16 23 30P 34,219 33,939 34.438 34,031 34,963 33,977 33,846 34,389 33,866 34,797 114,420 114,213 114,784 114.389 115,299 516.4 20.6 524.2 522.9 522.7 304.2 304.0 303.7 301.9 301.7 699.7 700.6 701.3 699.5 701.2 768.4 770.3 771.7 770.6 773.2 JULY 7P 34,855 34,731 114,996 522.6 304.3 705.1 776.7 MONTHLY: 1975-JUNE 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE P WEEKLY: 1976-MAY ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE AEQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7T TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THR1FT INSTIIUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY NOTES: APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currency Demand os Total Timet Deposits utual ime Other Savings Bank nd S & L Ds S 1 Short Credit Union Shares1 CD's Savings Bonds U.STerm Gov't Commercial CPera Securities Pap Shares6 2 3 8.1 10.2 8.7 5.3 3.0 2.6 16.2 15.0 7.9 1 1.4 9.4 12.2 8.5 5.6 15.8 9.4 7.6 4.4 0.9 7.8 7.8 13.4 10.4 10.6 4.0 6.9 JULY 16, 1976 1 4 5 6 7 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 8 9 0 10 ANNUALLY 1973 1974 1975 13.8 12.1 20.2 45 41 -7 31.3 11.9 19.5 39.3 15.2 15.2 -12.7 -2.9 6.7 31.3 5.7 -6.5 14.9 13.9 -29.7 1.2 15.9 9.1 -0.5 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 1ST HALF 1976 QUARTER LY: 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1975 1975 5.6 9.4 2.9 -1.1 2.6 12.9 8.9 11.6 17.4 12.5 -23.8 19.2 19.2 41.3 -24.2 11.9 1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 1976 1976 10.9 10.0 2.4 5.6 5.4 8.2 17.1 12.2 14.3 13.1 -46.8 -14.2 -3.6 6.0 7.7 23.6 1975 1975 8.5 8.4 6.6 0.2 4.7 9.7 12.7 9.8 18.2 14.0 -27.5 9.5 26.4 23.5 -23.7 -1.0 1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976 9.8 11.7 0.4 7.2 7.8 6.2 15.9 13.7 13.4 13.8 -29.3 -30.6 12.3 0.6 9.7 17.1 1975--JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 13.7 5.1 10.1 1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9 14.4 3.3 3.8 1.6 -4.3 7.1 -5.9 12.0 5.8 -3.8 5.8 13.7 18.9 18.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.3 -14.1 -28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3 11.0 18.4 14.0 6.4 6.0 10.7 13.6 10.1 16.1 23.1 53.6 27.6 -23.2 21.6 63.8 34.9 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE P 8.1 14.6 -1.1 3.8 4.3 14.6 5.3 -3.2 5.3 7.7 3.1 8.1 1.0 15.3 18.2 21.4 11.0 14.9 11.4 10.1 13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.5 -53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -29.5 -53.8 42.2 3.6 -19.6 5.4 0.0 0.0 18.0 QUARTERLY-AV: 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY: 1/ P - 15.9 11.0 3.1 13.5 GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED 13.4 BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT -24.6 -25.1 -28.5 -20.4 3.0 17.8 14.6 8.7 5.7 8.6 17.0 25.1 27.3 MONTH AND END OF JULY APPENDIX TABLE 2-B 169 1976 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Demand Currency Period Deposits Total Deposits Time Other Mutual Savings Credit Thn Bank and S & L Union Shares CD Short Term U.S. Gotdeposit pe Savings CD's nds Securities Shares v ; 7 2 3 4 5 6 61.5 67.8 73.7 209.0 215.3 221.0 364.4 419.1 452.4 300.9 329.3 369.6 323.5 341.6 395.5 24.7 27.7 33.3 63.5 89.8 82.9 60.4 63.3 67.2 U.S. Funds Gov't Demand 11 12 1 9 8 1 y Non- 10 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 50.3 56.3 67.3 38.3 41.8 41.6 6.6 8.4 8.4 5.0 3.4 3.0 MONTHLYt 1975--JUNE 71.0 220.0 435.5 351.4 367.5 30.6 84.1 65.1 58.2 43.0 7.0 3.2 JULY AUG. SEPT. 71.3 71.9 72.0 220.6 221.3 221.6 437.6 436.2 438.3 355.5 357.4 359.2 373.3 378.8 383.5 31.0 31.5 31.9 82.1 78.8 79.1 65.6 65.9 66.2 60.8 62.2 61.0 42.1 41.1 40.4 6.8 7.0 7.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 OCT. NOV. DEC. 72.6 73.4 73.7 220.8 222.1 221.0 443.3 448.3 452.4 362.4 366.5 369.6 387.8 391.8 395.5 32.4 32.8 33.3 80.9 81.8 82.9 66.6 66.9 67.2 62.1 65.4 67.3 40.5 41.1 41.6 7.9 8.2 8.4 3.0 3.9 3.0 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. 74.2 75.1 75.7 220.8 221.5 222.3 454.4 457.3 458.5 375.2 381.9 385.4 399.9 404.8 409.6 33.8 34.1 34.7 79.2 75.4 73.2 67.6 68.0 68.3 67.5 66.4 66.7 41.9 42.1 42.4 7.9 8.0 8.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 76.7 77.4 77.6 225.0 226.0 225.4 461.6 462.0 467.9 390.2 393.9 397.2 414.4 419.0 423.0 34.9 35.1 35.3 71.4 68.2 70.6 68.6 69.0 69.3 66.7 66.7 67.7 43.0 43.9 44.9 7.5 7.6 8.4 2.5 2.3 3.7 5 12 19 26 77.1 77.3 77.4 77.2 225.5 227.2 225.8 225.7 461.0 461.8 461.7 462.7 391.9 393.6 394.1 394.7 69.1 68.2 67.6 68.0 7.3 7.6 7.8 7.8 1.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 JUNE 2 9 16 23 30P 77.6 77.8 77.7 77.7 77.6 226.5 226.2 226.0 224.2 224.1 464.2 466.3 468.0 468.7 471.5 395.5 396.6 397.6 397.7 399.5 68.7 69.7 70.4 71.1 72.0 7.4 7.1 8.4 9.1 8.8 2.8 4.5 5.3 3.8 2.5 JULY 7P 77.7 226.6 472.4 400.9 71.5 8.5 2.2 APR. MAY JUNE P WEEKLY: 1976--MAY 1/ P - ESTIMATED MONTHLY PRELIMINARY AVERAGE - -LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT - - MONTH AND END OF In - - PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 

Federal Reserve (1976, July 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760720

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760720,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Jul},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760720},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}