Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC June 18, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) June 18, 1976 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent Developments (1) Growth in M1 slowed to a 6 per cent annual rate in M ay-- following April's exceptionally rapid advance--and appears to be moderating somewhat further in June. Thus, for the May-June period, M1 expansion is now projected at around a 5½ per cent annual rate, just below the mid-point of the Committee's range. M2 is projected to expand at around an 8¾ per cent rate during May and June, also well below its pace in April, but near the upper bound of the Committee's range. Growth in the time deposit component of M2 has been somewhat greater than expected in recent weeks, despite a marked diminution of inflows to savings deposits, as market rates moved above the ceiling rate on passbook savings. Inflows of funds to nonbank thrift institutions were well maintained in May. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over May-June Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates M1 4 to 7½ 5.6 M2 5 to 9 8.7 Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) Avg. for statement week ending May 19 5.28 26 5.50 June 2 5.54 9 5.44 16 5.47 (2) Following the May 18 FOMC meeting, the Desk promptly became somewhat less accommodative in the provision of reserves and sought a Federal funds rate around 5-3/8 per cent, a shade above the then prevailing 5-1/4 per cent and equal to the mid-point of the 5 to 5-3/4 per cent range newly adopted by the Committee. When incoming data during the latter part of May suggested that May-June growth in both M1 and M 2 would be near the upper ends of the Committee's ranges, the Desk raised its funds rate objective to 5-1/2 per cent. Subsequent data tended to confirm this projec- tion of M2 growth, but indicated that M1 growth might be weaker than earlier believed. Under the circumstances, the Desk has continued to seek a Federal funds rate averaging about 5-1/2 per cent. (3) Nonborrowed reserves in the May-June period appear to be increasing at about a 3-1/2 per cent annual rate, on average, rather than decreasing slightly as the staff had thought would be consistent with the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted by the FOMC at its last meeting.1/ Since the banking system held more free reserves (excess reserves minus borrowings) than anticipated, this growth rate did not support more monetary expansion than expected. With Federal funds generally trading around the 5-1/2 per cent discount rate, member bank borrowing did nonetheless increase and averaged about $125 million in the interval between Committee meetings, as compared with about $50 million in the preceding two months. 1/ A discussion of the actual behavior of nonborrowed reserves in the weeks between meetings relative to the behavior that was expected to be consistent with the Committee's short-run targets for monetary growth may be found in Appendix A. (4) Since the May FOMC meeting, private short-term interest rates have generally increased 1/4 to 1/2 of a percentage point, on balance, while Treasury bill rates have changed little. Most of the increase in private rates occurred in late May and early June, as the Federal funds rate rose. When the funds rate subsequently stabilized around the 5-1/2 per cent level, and published data indicated a substantial slowdown of growth in M1 the upward movement of rates stopped. The spread between private short-term rates and Treasury bill rates widened, in part reflecting some firming in business demands for short-term credit while the Treasury continued to redeem maturing bills in its weekly auction. The volume of commercial paper increased modestly further in May. Business loans at banks also rose a little over this period, and banks-perhaps expecting a further increase in business loans and rising interest rates--have increased their outstanding CD's. (5) Bond yields continued to move higher in late May, but declined in June as short-term markets stabilized, and on balance were down a little over the intermeeting period. The bond markets have absorbed a substantial volume of new corporate and municipal issues in recent weeks. Treasury borrowing activity over the period was less heavy than had previously been projected by the Treasury--reflecting an unexpected shortfall in outlays--but was still on the large side for the period of the year. Although yields in the secondary mortgage market have moved in sympathy with bond market rates, rates in the primary market for home loans have continued to edge upward in the past few weeks. Net acquisitions of -4- mortgages by savings and loan associations remained at a relatively high level in April, and loan commitments increased to their highest level in 3 years. (6) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Past Calendar Twelve Y____a_Months 1975 Past Six Past Three Past Month Months Months May '76 May '76 May '76 over over over over May '75 Nov. '15 Peb. '75 Apr.'76 May '76 Nonborrowed reserves 1.3 -.2 -2.6 .5 1.2 Total reserves -.4 -- -2.2 .9 3.7 Monetary Base 5.8 6.9 6.7 8.8 6.9 4.1 5.4 5.1 9.0 6.0 8.5 10.0 10.5 10.9 8.8 11.3 12.3 11.9 12.1 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 6.4 6.5 5.7 6.0 2.8 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.7 9.8 8.7 8.9 6.5 (bank credit proxy adj.) 3.9 2.9 .6 -- -3.9 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 4.4 5.2 4.1 5.9 5.2 -.6 -1.4 -2.3 -2.4 -3.2 -,2 -- 0.4 0.3 .2 Concepts of Money (Revised Series) M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 (M plus deposits at thrift institutions) 10.4 Bank Credit Total member bank deposits Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (7) Three alternative sets of short-run specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate are summarized below for Committee consideration. (More detailed data, as well as longer-run growth rates, are shown in the tables on pp. 6a and 6b, while reserve aggregates believed to be consistent with these specifications are presented in appendix Table I.) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges for June-July 4½-8½ M1 4-8 3½-7½ M2 7-11 6½-10½ 5½-9½ Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) 4½-5½ 5-6 5½-6½ (8) If the Federal funds rate between now and the next meeting of the Committee remains around the recently prevailing 5½ per cent--the mid-point of the alternative B range--the staff would expect that the annual rate of M1 growth may be in a 4-8 per cent range over the June-July period. In light of the data already reported for the early part of the month, growth in June is expected to be around a 5 per cent annual rate. Such a growth rate may reflect, in part, continued adjustment by cash-holders to the April bulge in M1 growth. Recently available deposit ownership survey figures suggest that much of the April increase was in balances of consumers, who may take a longer time than busineses and other holders to restore their balances to desired levels. The staff expects M1 growth in July to be at a somewhat higher rate, in view of the projected rise in nominal GNP. -6aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 M2 M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 May June July 303.2 304.5 306.6 303.2 304.5 306.3 303.2 304.5 306.0 697.0 702.0 707.6 697.0 701.9 706.8 697.0 701,8 705.5 1151.0 1160.6 1170.2 1151.0 1160.4 1169.1 1151.0 1160.1 1167.6 1976 QI QII QIII QIV 296.5 303.1 308.1 311.3 296.5 303.1 307.6 310.6 296.5 303.1 307.3 310.4 677.4 697.0 711.7 722.4 677.4 696.9 710.8 721.8 677.4 696.9 709.0 720.6 1116.1 1150.9 1177.4 1195.9 1116.1 1150.8 1176.1 1195.5 1116.1 1150.7 1173.8 1194.3 313.5 313.5 313.5 731.8 732.9 732.9 1214.0 1216.3 1217.3 5.1 8.3 5.1 7.1 5.1 5.9 8.6 9.6 8.4 8.4 8.3 6.3 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.0 9.5 7.8 8.9 6,6 4.2 2.8 8.9 5.9 3.9 3.7 8.9 5.5 4.0 4.0 11.6 8.4 6.0 5.2 11.5 8.0 6.2 6.2 11.5 6.9 6.5 6.8 12.5 9.2 6.3 6.1 12.4 8.8 6.6 7.0 12.4 8.0 7.0 7.7 7.8 3.5 7.5 3.8 7.3 4,0 10.1 5.6 9.9 6.2 9.3 6.7 11.0 6.2 10.8 6.8 10.3 7.4 5.7 5.7 5.7 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.8 9.0 9.1 1977 '-I Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 June July Quarterly Average: 1976 1977 QII QIII QIV QI Semi-annual QI '76-QIII '76 QIII '76-QI '77 Annual QI '76-QI '77 FOMC longer-run range QI '76-QI '77 44-7 7t-10 9-12 -- -6bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy M5 M4 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 May June July 765.2 772.5 779.5 765.2 772.3 778.9 765.2 772.1 777.9 1219.1 1231.0 1242.1 1219.1 1230.8 1241.2 1219.1 1230.6 1239.9 515.6 522.0 525.8 515.6 521.9 525.5 515.6 521.9 524.9 1976 QI QII QIII QIV 753.2 767.0 784.7 798.1 753.2 767.0 784.0 797.8 753.2 766.9 782.4 795.6 1192.0 1220.9 1250.4 1271.7 1192.0 1220.8 1249.3 1271,5 1192.0 1220.7 1247.1 1269.2 515.2 518.3 529.6 538.2 515.2 518.3 529.2 538.0 515.2 518.2 528.1 536.2 1977 QI 810.8 811.7 810.1 1292.9 1295.0 1294.4 544.8 545.3 543.7 11.4 10.9 11.1 10.3 10.8 9.0 11.7 10.8 11.5 10.1 11.3 9.1 14.9 8.7 14.7 8.3 14.7 6.9 QII QII QIV QI 7,3 9.2 6.8 6.4 7.3 8.9 7.0 7.0 7.3 8.1 6.7 7.3 9.7 9.7 6.8 6.7 9.7 9.3 7.1 7.4 9.6 8.7 7.1 7.9 2.4 8.7 6.5 4.9 2.4 8.4 6.7 5.4 2.4 7.6 6.1 5.6 Semi-annual QI '76-QIII '76 QIII '76-QI '77 8.4 6.7 8.2 7.1 7.8 7.1 9.8 6.8 9.6 7.3 9.2 7.6 5.6 5.7 5.4 6.1 5.0 5.9 Annual QI '76-01 '77 7.6 7.8 7.6 8.5 8.6 8.6 5.7 5.8 5.5 Growth Rates eonthly: 1976 June July Quarterly Averages: 1976 1977 -7(9) Given the prevailing Federal funds rate, time deposits other than large money market CD's are expected to grow over the next two months at an annual rate around 10 per cent. With short-term market rates generally above the 5 per cent passbook rate, interest-sensitive holders, including businesses and state and local governments, may continue to reduce holdings of savings deposits. However, this may be offset by further expansion of ceiling-free time certificates of deposit, including largedenomination certificates issued by non-money market banks. Thus, for the June-July period, M2 growth may be in a 6½-10½ per cent annual rate range under alternative B. (10) In the near-term, if the money market remains stable, short- and long-term interest rates are likely to change little. Longer- term market interest rates could edge down further once the market has absorbed the very large volume of new corporate and municipal bond offerings scheduled for June. The Treasury has a very large third-quarter deficit to finance, but it is expected to end the current fiscal year with a large cash balance and will probably raise the bulk of the new cash it needs later this summer. (11) Over the longer run, the outlook is still for upward pressures on interest rates, particularly short-term rates. Credit demands on banks and in short-term markets are expected to strengthen as the year progresses--with consequent upward pressure on CD and commercial paper rates. And by early winter the Treasury may have to finance itself -8increasingly outside the banking system, even if some upward adjustment in Regulation Q ceiling rates has been made by then, as we assume. As may be seen from appendix Table II, under alternative B the staff would expect a Federal funds rate of around 8 per cent by early next year, given a growth rate in M1 from QI '76 to QI '77 of 5¾ per cent. (12) The specifications of alternative C include a tightening of the funds rate over the next few weeks to the mid-point of a 5½-6½ per cent range. This would clearly entail further upward adjustments in market rates, with the 3-month bill rate moving to the 6 per cent area and the 3-month commercial paper rate rising to perhaps around 6¼-6½ per cent. However, such a near-term tightening of the money market would tend to moderate the need for restraint as the year progresses, as compared with alternative B. The funds rate under alternative C would be expected to peak at around 7¼ per cent by late this year, again assuming a 5¾ per cent growth rate in M1 over the QI '76-QI '77 period, (13) Growth in M1 in the June-July period may be in a 3½-7½ per cent, annual rate, range under alternative C, only a little less than under alternative B. In the short run, member banks could be expected to offset the greater constraint on nonborrowed reserves that is specified under alternative C by increasing their borrowing through the discount window, as suggested in appendix Table I. Expansion of M2 over the forthcent coming 2-month period might be in a 5½-9½ per annual rate range, in part reflecting reduced inflows to time and savings deposits (other than money market CD's) as funds are increasingly diverted from such accounts to higher-yielding market instruments. -9(14) Alternative A assumes an easing in the Federal funds rate to the mid-point of a 4½-5½ per cent range between now and the next Committee meeting. Such an easing would encourage more rapid money growth in the third and fourth quarter than under alternatives B and C. However, if the FOMC also wished to constrain longer-run M1 growth to 5¼ per cent, alternative A would entail a more pronounced slowing in the rate of expansion of M1 in early 1977 and a sharper rise in interest rates in late 1976 and early 1977 than would the other two alternatives. -10- Proposed directive (15) Given below is a proposed operational paragraph for the directive if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider those targets. "Monetary Aggregates" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. (16) Should the Committee desire to place main emphasis on bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought. Three alternative "money market" direc- tives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions moderate with consistent [DEL: monetary in growth aggregates] over the -11period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to [DEL: achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: moderate with consistent over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, growth in monetary aggregates] PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: growth moderate with consistent monetary in aggregates]over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Appendix A Comparison of Actual and "Targeted" Reserves The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the 5 week period ending June 23 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting. Actual 1/ 1 (2+3) "Targeted" Difference Nonborrowed reserves 34,023 33,948 2 Required reserves 33,952 34,061 -109 3 (4-5) Free reserves 71 -113 184 194 162 123 275 34,146 34,223 80,298 80,460 -162 114,444 114,683 -239 4 5 6 (1+5) 7 Excess reserves Member bank borrowing Total reserves Currency 8 (6+7) Monetary base 75 32 -152 -77 1/ Includes week of June 23, which is partly estimated. As can be seen from the table, nonborrowed reserves during the intermeeting period were $75 million higher than "targeted." Relative to expectations, these reserves were employed to support more free reserves in the banking system (line 3) rather than more required reserves (line 2). Member banks held somewhat more excess reserves than anticipated and did not borrow as much as had been thought consistent with the "targeted" reserves and monetary aggregates. At the same time, required reserves were A-2 about $110 million weaker than expected in the five week period, owing to weaker than anticipated demand deposits at member banks as well as a slightly higher multiplier relationship between lagged deposits at member banks and current required reserves (given changes in the mix of deposits). With borrowing falling considerably short of "target," total reserves were smaller than anticipated during the intermeeting period. The monetary base was even further below "target," as currency in circulation turned out to be substantially smaller than expected. Achievement of the nonborrowed "target" during the period by the Desk would have resulted in a higher Federal funds rate, perhaps around the On the other upper end of the 5-5¾ per cent range adopted by the FOMC. hand, if the Desk had attempted to reach "targeted" levels of total reserves or the monetary base, the funds rate would have been lower than actually prevailed--and much lower in the case of the monetary base. Appendix Table I Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Average of 4 weeks June 23 to July 14 Change from average of previous 5-week period ($ million) Alt. A Alt. B ($ million) Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B 232 60 40 197 Alt. C 34,343 34,265 34,093 310 Member bank borrowing 105 168 325 -23 Excess reserves 166 158 149 -97 -105 -114 34,448 34,433 34,418 288 273 Monetary base1/ 115,155 115,140 115,126 843 Nonborrowed monetary base 115,050 114,972 114,801 866 Nonborrowed reserves 2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for June-July Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 8.4 6.6 1.0 258 7.7 7.1 6.4 828 814 7.3 7.1 6.9 788 617 7.5 7.0 5.3 Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves 1/ Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks. Appendix Table II Projected Federal Funds Rates 1976 QII QIII QIV 1977 QI Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 5% 5k 5k Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) (Revised Series) M2 M1 M 1973 M3 M q M q I 3.6 7.4- 7.3 9.2 8.4 10.3 II 10.1 6.4 9.9 8.2 9.8 8.5 III 1.8 5.5 6.3 7.9 6.1 7.8 IV 7.8 5.1 10.5 9.0 9.9 8.4 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.0 6.2 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 1974 I 5.3 6.0 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.9 II 5.3 5.6 6.9 7.4 5.7 6.5 III 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 IV 4.7 4.0 6.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.7 5.0 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 1975 1.4 0.6 6.9 5.6 9.0 7.5 II 9.7 7.4 12.5 10.2 14.5 12.6 III 3.6 7.1 6.5 10.1 10.7 13.3 IV 1.6 2.3 7.0 6.4 QIV '74-QIV '75 4.1 4.4 8.5 8.3 1976 4.3 2.6 I I 11.5 10.1 9.3 9.4 11.3 11.1 12.6 11.4 M - Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q - Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II -FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 6/18/76 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -l 320 310 305 300 295 1974 1975 1976 CHART 2 6/18/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS A l - 540 - 520 - 500 - 480 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ~ 39 - 37 TOTAL NONBORROWED 1974 1975 1976 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios. 6/18/76 CHART 3 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS F.R. DISCOUNT RATE PERCENT -1 10 PER CENT -8 INTEREST RATES Long-term - - 7 6 FEDERAL FUNDS. RATE - 5 _J 1975 1976 4 1975 1976 1975 1976 PER CENT TABLE 1 (FR) CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 1 JUNE 18, 1976 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED REQUIRED RESERVES BANK RESERVES Period Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE 34,003 34,024 34,128 134,305) 33,949 33,980 34,014 (34,175) 112,192 113,333 113,985 (114,880) 33.780 33,869 33,925 (34,072) 19,659 19,763 19,990 (19,932) 11,871 11,931 11,750 (11,844) ( 2,249 2,155 2,185 2,296) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--4TH QTR. 1976-1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. ( 1.4 -6.2 3.6) ( 4.5 -5.3 2.7) ( 7.3 4.6 9.6) ( 0.5 -5.7 3.5) ( -3.4 -2.0 5.61 ( 4.1 -11.0 -0.9) ( 0.6 -3.8 0.6) 1 2.7 -3.2 0.3) ( 5.6 5.3 8.7) ( -0.1 -3.6 1.0) ( -2.1 -1.0 4.1) ( -0.6 -6.5 -4.3) ( -1.7 0.7 3.7 6.2) ( -0.8 1.1 1.2 5.7) ( 7.0 12.2 6.9 9.4) ( -1.9 3.2 2.0 5.2) ( -3.4 7.6 12.6 -3.51 ( -4.6 6.1 -18.2 9.6) I 5.0) ( 3.4) ( 8.2) ( 3.6) ( t -4.4) QUARTERLY-AV 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. MONTHLY 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE MAY-JUNE 4.5) WEEKLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 1976--MAY JUNE NOTE: 5 12 19 26 34,807 33,693 34,187 33,991 34,777 33,638 34,065 33,855 114,355 113,472 114,103 113,843 34,366 33,726 33,942 33,913 20,141 19,945 19,934 20,081 11,790 11,784 11,751 11,719 2,435 1,997 2,257 2,114 2 9 16 34,171 33,967 34,486 33,929 33,874 34,441 114,366 114,254 114,994 33,757 34,010 33,864 19.857 19,914 19,992 11,704 11,759 11,821 2,195 2,337 2,051 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. Table 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 1976II-FOMC JUNE 18,CLASS MONETARY AGGREGATES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (M2) Period _____(M1) 1 Adjusted Credit Proxy Total U.S. Govt. Deposits Total 3 4 5 2 Time and Savings Deposits Ot er Than Ci'S Other avings Total 6 7 CD 8 Nondeposit ondeposit Member Bank Sources of U.S.Govt. Deposits Funds 9 10 11 MONTHLY LEVELS-SBIl 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE 298.0 301.7 303.2 (304.5) 683.4 691.9 697.0 (701.91 516.0 517.3 515.6 (521.9) ( 1.6 4.3 8.7) 1 7.0 11.5 10.8) ( 7.0 1.2 4.61 ( 2.3 2.6 8.9) ( 6.4 10.1 11.5) ( 6.0 2.3 2.4) I 6.1 14.9 6.0 5.1) ( 8.7 14.9 8.8 8.4) I 5.6) I 8.7) 458.5 461.6 462.0 (467.8) 385.4 290.2 393.8 (397.4) 173.5 176.7 179.3 1179.8) 211.9 213.5 214.5 (217.61 ( 12.9 5.4 8.1) ( 11.6 17.1 12.5) C 15.8 32.4 14.5) ( 8.2 5.6 10.8) ( 9.7 7.8 6.2) ( 9.8 15.9 13.7) ( 14.4 28.3 22.0) ( 6.6 6.7 6.8) 9.5 -29.3 -31.1) ( 0.9 3.0 -3.9 14.7) ( 3.1 8.1 1.0 15.1) ( 11.0 14.9 11.1 11.0) ( 23.3 22.1 17.7 3.3) ( 0.6 9.1 5.6 17.3) ( -35.0 -29.5 -53.8 40.5) t 5.3) ( 8.1) ( 11.1) ( 10.5) ( 11.5) 1 -7.6) ( 11.0 7.2 7.4 9.4) 73.2 71.4 68.2 ( 70.51 ( 8.2 7.5 7.6 7.8) ( 2.5 2.5 2.3 3.3) X ANNUAL GROWTH ---*---------QUARTERLY 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. ( 19.2 -46.8 -14.8) QUARTERLY-AV 1975--4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. 2NO QTR. MONTHLY 1976--MAR. APR. MAY JUNE MAY-JUNE WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1976--MAY JUNE NOTE: 1/ P - 5 12 19 26 2 9 P 302.5 304.6 303.1 302.9 694.5 698.2 697.3 697.6 515.7 516.4 515.1 517.1 6.8 6.3 7.3 9.2 461.0 461.8 461.7 462.7 391.9 393.6 394.1 394.7 178.4 179.3 179.8 179.8 213.5 214.3 214.4 214.9 69.1 68.2 67.6 68.0 7.3 7.6 7.8 7.8 1.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 304.1 303.9 699.6 700.6 516.3 521.4 8.7 8.2 464.2 466.3 395.5 396.7 179.6 179.7 215.9 217.0 68.7 69.6 7.4 7.7 2.8 4.5 DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE PRELIMINARY BANKS. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 18, 1976 1/ TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Within 1-year -490 7,232 1,280 -468 87 207 320 337 789 579 797 3,284 539 500 434 1,510 Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 Total Net Change Outright Holdings Total 5/ Total Within 1-year 167 129 196 1,070 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 46 120 439 191 592 400 1,665 824 253 244 659 460 168 101 318 138 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 285 61 584 508 53 -2 3,076 230 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 Net RP's 6/ -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 1975--Qtr. I -2,093 33 1,054 625 312 2,024 69 169 Qtr. II 1,086 218 1,135 454 273 2,079 -- - Qtr. III Qtr. IV -757 1,294 13 74 712 385 201 234 171 315 1,096 1,006 64 58 514 141 106 71 63 14 747 284 1,060 2,626 2,392 -1,403 -363 115 554 226 156 1,052 102 288 108 38 535 1,022 1,256 1975--Dec. 1,784 31 118 78 71 297 - -- -- - -- 2,096 1,219 1976--Jan. Feb. -1,596 1,275 37 40 110 366 100 63 73 59 321 528 26 76 139 149 47 61 27 11 -1,030 2,029 3,597 -3,129 Mar. -42 38 78 63 24 203 - -- - -- -- Apr. May 513 -292 27 - 179 -- 51 -- 38 - 294 -- 3 -140 -57 40 -240 7 14 21 28 -1,593 -501 800 1,008 -27 - -70 -249 - --51 -- -38 -- -70 364 -- - - --- --- --- ----- 5 12 19 26 240 -626 298 597 - - --- ----- --3 --140 57 40 2 9 16 -572 -302 949 --- --- -- -- 1976--Qtr. I 1976--Apr. May June 23p 30 - -- ----- - - -- -- --- 28 387 112 64 591 - - - -2 -- 240 297 23 788 758 -122 1,261 -958 -1,678 -521 1,166 988 -7,764 5,064 5,206 -1,002 --240 242 -634 277 792 -2,077 522 605 -1,115 -- -587 -310 911 -5,170 -1,068 5,443 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). 1/ 2/ 3/ CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 18, 1976 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit Borrowing at FRB** Underwriting Syndicate Positions Municipal Corporate Bonds Bonds U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Excess** Reserves Bills Coupon Issues (1) 7,029 1,586 (z) 8 New York (8) 38 Others (9) 2,845 253 -7,387 -1,757 -11,632 1976--High Low 6,821 *3,668 1,684 *175 249 34 622 -106 -6,686 -2,367 -12,660 1975--May June 4,744 5,201 1,752 1,351 170 118 155 201 -3,965 -5,821 - 9,567 - 9,344 July 4,321 4,020 5,008 1,246 1,204 588 135 181 122 188 195 191 -5,546 -3,964 -3,551 - 9,896 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 5,766 4,751 4,822 1,480 2,073 1,075 123 173 103 161 251 265 -2,644 -3,812 -2,811 - 9,202 1976--Jan. Feb. 4,959 5,214 5,910 1,220 97 181 151 232 256 223 -3,581 -4,138 -4,726 - 9,746 5,750 *4,239 605 *591 133 155 123p -5,179 -4,426p -10,783 2 - 8, 59p 7 6,725 669 14 21 6,821 158 97 139 136 123 173 130 -5,819 -6,686 6,190 4,100 773 611 405 112 -5,016 -3,533 -10,533 -12,660 -11,856 4,309 4,620 3,915 *3,668 548 949 509 *470 137 441 -33 245 78 -4,214 -6,126 -4,789 -3,183 - 7,390 - 9,329 *5,266 *5,052 *5,777 *175 *636 414p -43p -3,235 -5,490p 914 -4, p - 7,605 4 _ Period 1975--High Low Mar. Apr. May 1976--Apr. 28 May 5 12 19 26 June ---NOTE: __ _ __ 2 9 16 23 30 _ _ 1,051 778 236 175 249 199 223 206p *522 * IJ .L Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. agreements maturing in 16 days or more, Seasonal Total 622p LL ± __ _ J. __ _ - 7,207 - 7,390 - 9,966 - 9,015 -10,159 -10,418 -10,015 - 9,640 - 9,215 - 8,523 - 8,124 -10,46 p - 8,848p _ Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL **Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 18, 1976 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per cent) 1-year (3) 7.31 5.46 Short-Term 90-119 Day Commercial Paper (4) 8.43 5.38 Treasury Bills Federal Funds CD's New Issue-NYC 60-Day (5) 7.88 5.25 90-Day (6) 7.75 5.38 Aaa Utility Recently New Issue Offered (7) (8) 9.80 9.71 9.06 8.89 Municipal Bond Buyer (9) 7.67 6.27 Long-Term U.S. Govt. (20yr. Constant Maturity) (10) 8.63 7.63 FNMA Auction Yield (11) 9.95 8.78 GNMA Guaranteed Securities (12) 9.10 7.93 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 90-Day (2) 6.68 5.02 1976-1igh Low 5.54 4.70 5.53 4.73 6.32 5.35 5.90 5.00 5.63 4.75 5.75 4.88 8.95 8.38 8.94 8.44 7.13 6.54 8.17 7.80 9.20 8.83 8.45 8.00 1975--May June 5.22 5.55 5.23 5.34 5.91 5.86 5.70 5.67 5.44 5.34 5.63 5.51 9.63 9.25 9.65 9.33 6.97 6.94 8.22 8.04 9.27 9.09 8.51 8.34 July Aug. Sept. 6.10 6.14 6.24 6.13 6.44 6.42 6.64 7.16 7.20 6.32 6.59 6.79 6.05 6.31 6.44 6.25 6.63 6.81 9.41 9.46 9.68 9.43 9.49 9.57 7.06 7.17 7.44 8.17 8.50 8.57 9.14 9.41 9.78 8.50 8.75 8.97 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.82 5.22 5.20 5.96 5.48 5.44 6.48 6.07 6.16 6.35 5.78 5.88 6.08 5.69 5.65 6.45 6.03 5.83 9.45 9.20 9.36 9.43 9.26 9.23 7.39 7.43 7.31 8.35 8.28 8.23 9.80 9.80 9.31 8.87 8.50 8.56 1976-Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.87 4.77 4.84 4.87 4.88 5.00 5.44 5.53 5.82 5.15 5.13 5.25 4.91 4.84 5.05 5.03 5.06 5.20 8.70 8.63 8.62 8.79 8.63 8.61 7.07 6.94 6.92 8.01 8.03 7.97 9.10 9.06 9.05 8.37 8.29 8.30 Apr. May 4.82 5.29 4.86 5.20 5.54 5.98 5.08 5.44 4.81 5.25 4.94 5,38 8.48 8,82 8.52 8.77 6.60 6.87 7.86 8.13 8.89 9.04 8.10 8.30 Period (i) 1976-Apr. 7 14 21 28 4.73 4.77 4.78 4.93 4.94 4.84 4.74 4.87 5.69 5.42 5.40 5.57 5.20 5.10 5.03 5.00 4.88 4.75 4.75 4.88 5.00 4.88 4.88 5.00 -8.42 8.38 8.58 8.50 8.44 8.54 8.57 6.65 6.54 6.55 6.55 7.84 7.80 7.84 7.94 8.94 8.83 - 8.15 8.00 8.16 8.09 May 5 12 19 26 5.03 5.02 5.28 5.50 4.88 5.04 5.21 5.44 5.65 5.79 6.01 6.20 5.13 5.25 5.43 5.68 5.00 5.13 5.38 5.50 5.13 5.25 5.50 5.63 8.68 8.82 8.82 8.95 8.62 8.78 8.83 8.84 6.71 6.83 6.91 7.03 8.03 8.15 8.16 8.17 8.94 -9.13 -- 8.16 8.16 8.44 8.44 June 2 9 16 23 30 5.54 5.44 5.47 5.53 5.46 5.40 6.32 6.17 6.07 5.81 5.88 5.90 5.63 5.63 5.63 5.75 5.75 5.75 8.83 8.71 8.69p 8.80 8.76 8.72p 6.89 6.86 6.85 8.08 8.04 8.02p 9.20 -9.14 8.44 8.39 8.34 Daily-June 10 5.47 5.43 6.11 5.88 - - 5.57p 5,38 6.09 5.88 17 -. -- _. .. _ 8.01 __ 8.04(6/16) NOTE: eekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week,averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the aid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. CNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Period Total Loans M2 and MI InvestSments 7 6 5 4 (Per cent annual rates of growth) Adj. Credit proxy 1973 1974 1975 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 8 9 10 11 12 11.1 8.9 10.0 11.9 8 .9 9.7 7.8 7.1 7.0 6.9 5.7 9.5 10.0 9.4 9.5 14.5 10.7 9.3 7.7 3.0 8.4 10.8 8.6 11.3 10.1 7.5 11.3 Total Nonborrowed Monetary Base 1 2 3 6.7 7.1 6.0 9.2 10.2 1.3 3.9 19.3 6.1 3.9 6.1 6.2 4.5 3.1 5.6 2.6 9.8 6.8 11.9 10.1 5.3 -0.8 7.0 9.7 3.6 1.6 12.5 6.5 7.0 ANNUALLY: -0.4 I . 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES y JUNE 18, ^. I ^, I 8.8 6.8 11.3 11.6 10.6 6.4 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF 1974 1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 4.2 -1.2 1.7 0.3 0.9 1.3 -0.1 -2.8 QUARTERLY: 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1975 1975 1975 -0.8 1.4 4.5 1ST QTR. 1976 QUARTERLY-AV -6.2 -5.3 1.2 4.3 11.5 12.6 5.0 7.7 7.7 2ND QTR. 1975 3RD QTR. 1975 47H QTR. 1975 -1.4 0.1 -0.4 2.7 3.6 1.4 6.0 7.4 7.1 2.3 10.2 10.1 6.4 12.6 13.3 9.4 5.6 5.7 6.7 8.7 10.7 9.9 8.7 9.5 9.6 1976 -3.8 -3.2 2.3 2.6 10.1 11.4 5.7 8.7 8.7 1975--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. -11.6 12.2 -3.2 -3.1 3.9 -6.3 9.7 0.8 -10.1 11.4 14.2 3.7 5.3 1.6 -0.8 9.0 -3.2 13.4 16.5 9.5 5.7 4.2 5.3 11.5 4.0 14.9 17.4 13.2 10.3 8.5 8.7 11.9 7.1 6.2 12.9 5.1 -0.5 4.3 7.9 11.7 5.3 9.4 14.9 11.9 7.0 6.5 10.3 14.3 8.9 8.6 13.5 14.3 -1.6 1.0 12.7 -3.3 -4.3 5.2 5.9 14.4 0.7 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P -10.2 -8.4 -6.9 -0.8 1.1 1.2 -0.7 3.5 0.9 3.0 -3.9 1.2 5.7 6.1 14.9 6.0 10.7 14.9 8.7 14.9 8.8 11.9 14.7 10.8 14.7 10.4 3.5 7.0 4.3 10.9 2.8 7.1 8.2 7.7 12.2 6.9 7.1 8.0 7.8 12.3 7.7 1ST QTR. 0.6 -1.9 MONTHLY: NOTES: 1/ P - -6.8 -1.7 0.7 3.7 6.5 -5.8 0.0 -2.6 0.8 I UIaI .a-~ ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS RELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQU: PRELIMINARY I SUBJECT aTO RESERVE I I&I REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANK- 10.6 6.0 5.7 10.1 14.3 9.1 APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES JUNE 18, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK CREDIT MEASURES A BANK RESERVES Total n borrowed Monetary ary Base A. Adj. Credit proxy 1 2 3 4 32,390 34,693 34,539 31,092 33,966 34,409 96,051 104,892 110,930 449.4 34,143 34,490 34,077 34,263 106,647 107,833 501.2 JULY AUG. SEPT. 34,399 34,310 34,421 34,098 34,099 34,024 OCT. NOV. DEC. 34,239 34,515 34,539 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. Period Total Loans and Investments 5 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 637.7 695.2 725.5 270.5 283.1 294.8 571.4 612.4 664.3 919.5 981.6 1092.9 634.9 702.2 747.2 982.9 1071.4 1175.8 1093.7 1191.0 1310.3 1132.0 1232.7 1351.9 506.5 705.3 709.7 287.6 291.0 633.7 642.4 1025.3 1040.2 718.8 726.5 1110.4 1124.3 1232.4 1247.7 1276.3 1290.7 108,254 108,694 108,949 505.1 503.3 505.5 710.3 713.6 717.2 291.9 293.2 293.6 647.5 650.6 652.9 1051.6 1060.6 1068.1 729.6 729.3 731.9 1133.7 1139.3 1147.1 1260.1 1267.5 1274.4 1302.1 1308.6 1314.8 34,048 34,455 34,409 109,279 110,287 110,930 508.0 514.1 514.4 721.0 726.9 725.5 293.4 295.6 294.8 655.8 662.1 664.3 1075.8 1086.5 1092.9 736.7 743.9 747.2 1156.6 1168.3 1175.8 1285.3 1300.6 1310.3 1325.9 1341.7 1351.9 34,245 34,052 34,003 34,167 33,971 33,949 111,171 111,538 112,192 514.1 727.6 731.2 735.4 295.1 296.5 298.0 670.2 678.5 683.4 1103.7 515.6 516.0 1117.2 1127.3 749.4 753.8 756.5 1182.9 1192.6 1200.5 1318.0 1327.0 1335.5 1359.9 1369.0 1377.9 34,024 34,128 33,980 34,014 113,333 113,985 517.3 515.6 738.7 741.9 301.7 303.2 691.9 697.0 1141.1 1151.0 763.4 765.2 1212.5 1219.1 1349.1 1356.9 1392.0 1400.9 33,805 34,095 34,107 33,744 34,056 34,049 112,937 113,906 113,760 517.9 519.6 515.2 302.8 303.3 301.9 692.9 693.0 693.5 765.1 763.9 763.2 34,807 33,693 34,187 33,991 34,777 33,638 34,065 33,855 114,355 113,472 114,103 113,843 515.7 516.4 515.1 517.1 302.5 304.6 303.1 302.9 694.5 698.2 697.3 697.6 763.6 766.4 764.8 765.6 34,171 33,967 33,929 33,874 114,366 114,254 516.3 521.4 304.1 303.9 699.6 700.6 768.3 770.2 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 495.3 514.4 MONTHLY: 1975--MAY JUNE APR. MAY P WEEKLY: 1976--APR. 14 21 28 MAY JUNE NOTES: 5 12 19 26 2P 9P ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLO TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. TION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY APPENDIX TABLE 2-A JUNE 16, COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currency 1 D 2 Time Total Tite Demand Mutual Savings Other Tan Time . Deposits Deits 3 Short Credit Union S Savings CD's s and S L Shares her 4 5 6 7 (Per cent anual rates of growth) Saving 8 Term Commercial U.S. Gov't Paper Y Securities Tem CShares 9 10 ANNUALLY: 8.5 5.6 15.8 45.6 41.4 -7.7 31.3 11.9 19.5 39.3 9.1 20.2 8.0 6.1 11.5 20.9 4.4 4.4 7.8 7.8 13.4 10.4 15.2 15.2 20.9 17.6 -12.7 -2.9 6.7 31.3 5.7 -6.5 9.9 2.9 -1.1 6.3 2.6 12.9 14.6 8.9 11.6 17.7 17.4 12.5 20.6 17.0 17.6 -25.4 -23.8 19.2 7.0 19.2 41.3 -C.1 -24.2 11.9 2.4 5.4 17.1 14.3 16.8 -46.6 -3.6 8.1 10.2 8.7 5.3 3.0 2.6 16.2 15.0 7.9 11.4 9.4 12.2 1974 9.9 2.1 10.6 1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 9.4 7.6 4.4 0.9 9.2 5.6 9.4 1973 1974 1975 13.8 12.1 -0.5 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 2ND HALF QUARTERLY: 2ND QTR. 1975 3RD QTR. 1975 4TH QTR. 1975 10.9 1ST QTR. 1976 7.7 QUARTERLY-AV: 9.3 -23.7 -1.0 2ND QTR. 1975 3RD QTR. 1975 4TH QTR. 1975 8.1 8.5 8.4 6.9 6.6 0.2 4.5 4.7 9.7 12.5 12.7 9.8 16.2 18.2 14.0 21.0 18.6 16.5 -24.5 -27.5 9.5 -2.8 26.4 23.5 1ST 01Q. 9.8 0.4 7.8 15.9 13.4 17.1 -29.3 12.3 9.7 1975-MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OLT. NOV. OEC. 12.1 13.7 5.1 10.1 1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9 11.1 14.4 3.3 3.8 1.6 -4.3 7.1 -5.9 3.1 12.0 5.8 -3.8 5.8 13.7 13.5 11.0 15.1 18.4 14.0 6.4 6.0 10.7 13.6 10.1 17.2 18.9 18.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.3 20.3 19.9 15.7 19.4 15.2 18.8 14.8 18.3 -44.8 -14.1 -28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3 13.4 16.1 -2.1 23.1 53.6 27.6 -23.2 21.6 63.8 34.9 -13.5 -24.6 -25.1 -28.5 -20.4 3.0 17.8 14.6 1976-J AN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P 8.1 14.6 9.6 15.9 9.4 -1.1 3.8 4.3 14.6 4.8 5.3 7.7 3.1 8.1 1.0 18.2 21.4 11.0 14.9 11.1 13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 18.0 10.7 21.1 6.9 6.9 -53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -29.5 -53.8 3.6 -19.6 5.4 21.6 15.9 8.7 5.7 8.6 17.0 27.9 1976 MONTHLY: 11 1/ P - I 4 GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. 4 4 AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED 1 £ 1 BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT I I MONTH AND END OF 1976 JUNE 18, APPENDIX TABLE 2-B 1976 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Currency Time Total-Time Demand otal Other Time De Depdit Than Deposits Deposits CD ____ Mutual Mu" I Credit Savings Credit Bank Un on ank Union and S & L Shares Shares 1 5 6 1 2 3 4 61.5 67.8 73.7 z09.0 215.3 221.0 364.4 419.1 452.4 300.9 329.3 369.6 323.5 341.6 395.5 1975--MAY JUNE 70.2 71.0 217.4 220.0 431.2 435.5 346.1 351.4 JULY AUG. SEPT. 71.3 71.9 72.0 220.6 221.3 221.6 437.6 436.2 438.3 OCT. NOV. DEC. 72.6 73.4 73.7 220.8 222.1 221.0 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. 74.2 75.1 75.7 CD's D Savings Bonds Short Short Term Commercia U.S. Gov't Panel Securiies 1, 9 10 Non- os deposit Funds F unds U.S. U Gov't IDemand Demand 7 8 24.7 27.7 33.3 63.5 89.8 82.9 60.4 63.3 67.2 50.3 56.3 67.3 38.3 41.8 41.6 6.o 6.4 8.4 5.0 3.4 3.0 361.8 367.5 30.1 30.6 85.1 84.1 o4.8 65.1 57.1 58.2 43.9 3 .0 7.. 7.0 2.5 3.2 355.5 357.4 359.2 373.3 378.8 383.5 31.0 31.5 31.9 82.1 78.8 79.1 65.6 65.9 66.2 60.8 62.2 61.0 42.1 41.1 40.4 6.8 7.0 7.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 443.3 448.3 452.4 362.4 366.5 369.6 387.8 391.8 395.5 32.4 32.8 33.3 80.9 81.8 82.9 66.6 66.9 67.2 62.1 65.4 67.3 40.5 41.1 41.6 7.9 8.2 8.4 3.0 3.9 3.0 220.8 221.5 222.3 454.4 457.3 458.5 375.2 381.9 385.4 399.9 404.8 409.6 33.8 34.1 34.7 79.2 75.4 73.2 67.6 68.0 68.3 67.5 66.4 66.7 41.9 42.1 42.4 7.9 8.0 8.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 76.7 77.3 225.0 225.9 461.6 462.0 390.2 393.8 414.4 419.0 34.9 35.1 71.4 68.2 68.6 69.0 67.9 68.8 43.0 44.0 7.5 7.6 11 12 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 MONTHLY: APR. MAY P 1 .5 2.3 WEEKLY: 1976-APR. 14 21 28 76.6 77.2 76.9 226.1 226.0 225.0 462.3 460.6 461.3 390.1 389.7 391.6 72.2 70.9 69.7 7.2 8.0 7.6 2.5 3.6 1.9 MAY 5 12 19 26 77.1 77.3 77.4 77.2 225.5 227.2 225.8 225.7 461.0 461.8 461.7 462.7 391.9 393.6 394.1 394.7 69.1 68.2 67.6 68.0 7.3 7.6 7.8 7.8 1.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 77.6 77.8 226.5 226.1 464.2 466.3 395.5 396.7 68.7 69.6 7.4 7.7 JUNE 1/ P - 2P 9P ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE PRELIMINARY LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 1 .6 4.5 

Federal Reserve (1976, June 21). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760622

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760622,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Jun},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760622},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}