Bluebook

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Content last modified 6/05/2009. Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC April 16, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System April 16, STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M1 increased at about a 6½ per cent annual rate during March. With incoming data for early April showing further strength, growth for March and April combined now appears to be running at about a 7¼ per cent annual rate, as compared with the 6 per cent mid-point of the Committee's range. Growth in M 2 over the March-April period is now projected at nearly a 10 per cent annual rate, also above the mid-point of the Committee's range. Inflows to savings accounts at banks, although below the extra- ordinary February pace, have remained quite strong. nonbank thrift institutions Deposit growth at also has been well maintained, with March expansion at S&L's and savings banks combined running close to a 15 per cent annual rate. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over March-April Period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR, in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates M1 4 to 8 7.3 M2 7 to 11 9.9 RPD -2 to 2 Avg. for statement Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 0.0 4¼ to 5¼ week ending March 24 31 April 7 14 4.79 4.84 4.73 4.78 (2) During the intermeeting period, estimates of growth in M 1 and M2 for March-April fluctuated around the mid-point of the FOMC's ranges, and the Desk continued to aim for reserve availability consistent with Federal funds trading around 4¾ per cent. In the four statement weeks since the March meeting, excess reserves and member bank borrowing have averaged $210 million and $50 million, respectively, both somewhat below their recent levels. Nonborrowed reserves over the March-April period have shown little net change, as reserves to support M1 and M2 continued to be released by declines in CD's; in addition, more of the money growth than expected took the form of currency, which requires no reserves. (3) With the funds rate remaining stable, short-term interest rates have dropped back to levels reached in mid-January, when the funds rate first moved down into the 4¾ per cent range. These declines, together with the relatively favorable performance of the wholesale and consumer price indexes, have contributed to a further strengthening of investor demands for longer-term investments. Since the last FOMC meeting, bond yields have declined another 15 to 40 basis points despite the heavy recent volume of new issues. In mortgage markets, rates have declined 5-10 basis points further. (4) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time periods. Past Six Months Mar. '76 over Sept,'75 Past Three Months Mar. '76 over Dec. '75 Past Month Mar. '76 over Feb. '76 -,4 -2.4 -6.2 -1,8 9.2 1.3 -0.5 -5.4 -0.9 7.4 -1.1 -2.8 -5.9 -3.7 4.7 4.2 3.3 4.6 6.5 7.2 8,3 8,8 11.1 8.5 6.8 11.2 10.8 12.4 10.8 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 10.6 6.3 6.3 4.6 4.0 M 5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.0 9.6 9.0 8.2 7.9 10.2 3.9 4.3 1.6 1,2 9.2 4.3 5,2 7.3 8.2 2.2 -.6 -1.0 -3.3 -2.3 Calendar Year Calendar Year 1974 1975 Total reserves 7.1 Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 21 Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's -0.1 0.3 -0.1 -.2 .4 Nonbank commercial paper I/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. if Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (5) Alternative longer-run growth ranges for the monetary aggregates are shown below for Committee consideration. one year period from QI '76 to QI '77. They pertain to the The ranges shown under alternative B are the same as those adopted in January for the QIV '75-QIV '76 period. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 5½-8½ 4½-7½ 3½-6½ M2 9-12 7¾-10¾ 6-9 M3 10-13 9-12 7½-10½ 6-9 5-8 Proxy (6) 7-10 In considering these alternative longer-run targets, the Committee may be interested in their relationship to the QIV '76 levels for the monetary aggregates that were implied by the mid-points of the ranges adopted in January. From the fourth quarter of '75 to first quarter of '76, M2 and M 3 expanded at annual rates very near the mid-points of the ranges adopted previously (and shown above under alternative B); thus, continuation of growth near these rates would be associated with QIV '76 levels close to those implied by the earlier targets. However, M1 growth from the fourth to first quarter--at a 2.9 per cent annual rate--was well below both the lower limit of the longer-run range and the 6 per cent mid-point of that range. To achieve the level in QIV '76 implied by the mid-point of the earlier range, M1 would have to grow at almost a 7 per cent annual rate over the last three quarters of this year. Assuming M1 growth returns to a 6 per cent annual rate in the first quarter of 1977, this would imply a growth rate -4aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates __ 1976 1976 1977 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C March April May 298.4 300.5 302.2 298.4 300.4 302.0 298.4 300.3 301.8 681.7 688.4 694.5 681.7 688.1 693.9 681.7 687.9 693.3 1125.6 1138.0 1150.1 1125.6 1137.6 1148.9 1125.6 1137.2 1147,8 QI QII QIII 296.8 302.0 306.5 310.5 296.8 301.8 305.7 308.6 675.9 694.5 712.3 729.5 675.9 693.8 709.6 722.6 675.9 693.3 707.4 717.9 1114.5 1149.9 1183.6 1215,1 1114.5 1148.7 1178.7 1206.1 1114.5 QIV 296.8 302.2 307.3 312.5 QI 317.7 314.5 311.5 745.2 735.3 727.9 1242.8 1231.5 1214.8 1147.6 1174.9 1196.0 Growth Rates Monthly: 8.4 6.8 8.0 6.4 7.6 6.0 11.8 10.6 11.3 10.1 10.9 9.4 13.2 12.8 12.8 11.9 12.4 11,2 7.3 6.8 6.8 6.7 7.0 6.0 5.2 5.2 6.7 5.2 3.8 3.8 11.0 10.6 9.1 7.3 7.0 10.3 8.1 5.9 5.6 12.7 11.7 10.6 9.1 12.3 10.4 9.3 8.4 11.9 9.5 7.2 6.3 Semi-annual QI '76-QIII '76 QIII '76-QI '77 7.1 6.8 6.5 5.2 6.0 3.8 10.8 10.0 7,2 9.3 5.8 12.4 10.0 11.5 8.9 10.8 Annual QIV '75-QIV '76 QI '76-QI '77 6.0 7.0 5.4 6.0 4.7 5.0 10.5 10.2 9.5 8.8 8.7 7.7 12.0 11.5 11.2 10.5 10.3 9.0 1976 April May Quarterly Average: 1976 QII QIII QIV 1977 QI 10.3 9.7 8,6 9.2 6.8 -4bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy I Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt, A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 March April May 754.8 761.1 767.3 754.8 760.8 766.9 754.8 760.7 766.5 1198.7 1210.7 1222.8 1198.7 1210.3 1221.9 1198,7 1210.0 1221.0 516.4 517.9 521.9 516.4 517.8 521.7 516,4 517.6 521.5 1976 QI QII QIII QIV 751.8 767.2 785.2 805.5 751.8 766.8 783.8 800,3 751.8 766.5 781.8 795.6 1190.4 1222.6 1256.5 1291.1 1190.4 1221.7 1252.9 1283.8 1190.4 1220,8 1249.2 1273.6 515.5 521.8 534.0 547.2 515.5 521.6 533.4 544.1 515.5 521.4 532.1 541.8 QI 824.7 816,8 809.0 1322.3 1311.1 1295.8 559.3 554.2 549.0 3.3 9.0 2.8 9.0 1977 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 April May 12.0 12.0 11.6 11.5 11.3 9.2 7.8 8.0 7.1 6.7 10.8 11.1 11.0 9.7 10.5 9.5 8.0 8.9 8.4 8.2 10.2 9.9 8.5 10.2 9.3 7.8 7.0 4.9 9.4 9.9 8.8 4.7 9.0 8.0 7.4 4.6 8.2 7.3 5.3 8.9 10.1 8.5 8.4 8.0 7.0 11.1 10.5 10.5 9.3 9.9 7.5 7.2 9.5 6.9 7.8 6.4 6.4 8.5 9.7 7.8 8.6 7.2 7.6 10.7 10.1 10.1 9.2 8.9 6.8 8.5 6.2 7.5 5.8 6.5 10.0 9.4 9.8 10.9 Quarterly Averages: 1976 1977 QII QIII QIV QI Semi-annual QI '76-QIII '76 QIII '76-QI '77 Annual QIV '75-QIV '76 QI '76-QI '77 8.2 9.4 10.3 11.1 for the new one-year target period QI '76-QI '77 of about 6¾ per cent--well within the ranges of alternatives A and B and a shade above the upper limit of alternative C. (7) Short-run operating strategies roughly corresponding to the longer-run ranges are suggested below: Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges for April-May 1/ M1 5½-9½ 5-9 4½-8½ M2 9½-13½ 8½-12½ 8-12 Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) 3¾-4¾ 4¼-¼ 4¾-5¾ (8) The Federal funds rate range of alternative B is centered on the recently prevailing 4¾ per cent level. Given the bulge in M1 in early April, we expect that such a funds rate would be accompanied by M1 growth in a 5-9 per cent, annual rate, range over the April-May period. With expansion in time and savings deposits other than large CD's remaining relatively strong, M2 growth over the same period is likely to be in an 8½-12½ per cent annual rate range. (9) M1 growth has been generally strengthening in recent months. Part of the expansion in recent weeks may be attributable to declining Treasury deposits, but on balance it seems likely that a somewhat more typical relationship between M1 and GNP is being re-established. We would expect M1 to grow at about a 7 per cent annual rate from the first to second quarter. The staff expects that interest rates will soon have to begin 1/ Reserve aggregates thought to be consistent with these ranges are shown in appendix table V. rising if growth over the one-year QI '76-QI '77 period is to be constrained to 6 per cent--the mid-point of the longer-run growth range of alternative B. Our projected Federal funds rate patterns through the first quarter of 1977 for all alternatives are shown in appendix table IV. Under alternative B, the funds rate is expected to reach the 7 per cent level by early next year. (10) If the funds rate stays around the mid-point of its alternative B range over the next four weeks, short- and longer-term interest rates are unlikely to change significantly. On April 28, the Treasury will be announcing its mid-May refunding of some $4 billion of publicly-held maturing debt. The Treasury may also raise about $1 -2 billion of new cash at the same time. It is possible that a longer-term bond as well as a note in the 7-10 year maturity area may be included in the offering. While the volume of corporate and municipal bond offerings appears to be dropping off from its exceptional March pace, the forward calendar remains high, and substantial longer-term offerings by the Treasury could exert some upward pressure on bond yields. (11) Alternative C contemplates a gradual tightening of the money market over the next four weeks to the mid-point of a 4¾-5¾ per cent funds rate range in the process of moving toward lower longer-run growth rates for the aggregates. In the short-run, however, the impact on M1 and M 2 probably would be no more than minor because member banks would respond to the reduced availability of nonborrowed reserves contemplated under this alternative by increasing their borrowing. It is possible, though, that a substantial upward adjustment in the Treasury bill and other short-term rates would occur in response to signs of a sustained upward movement in the funds rate. Under these conditions, if short-rates moved well above the 5 per cent passbook ceiling rate, there could be sizable outflows of interest-sensitive funds from savings accounts, particularly those held by businesses and State and local governments. This would tend to drop the rate of growth in M2 toward the bottom of the indicated April-May range. (12) Under alternative C, we expect that interest rates would have to rise considerably further to achieve a 5 per cent M1 growth from QI '76 to QI '77. By early 1977, the funds rate might be around 7¾ per cent. (13) Under alternative A, the mid-point of the longer-run growth target for M1 is 7 per cent. In order to achieve this more rapid growth, money market conditions would probably have to ease somewhat over the next few weeks, and the funds rate would probably remain below 5 per cent until well into the summer months. Thereafter, however, interest rates would need to rise, with the Federal funds rate probably reaching the 6 per cent area in early 1977. Given the expected pattern of market interest rates, interest-bearing deposits would likely remain quite strong into the third quarter, but inflows would begin to slow later on as rates on market instruments became more attractive. (14) Over the period immediately ahead, internal funds available to the business sector are expected to remain quite ample relative to -8requirements generated by inventory and capital investment, so that little pick-up in business short-term credit demands is anticipated. As expenditures continue to rise, though, businesses later this year are expected to turn increasingly to commercial banks and the paper market for funds. Under alternatives A and B, banks are likely to have sufficient funds available without reliance on significant increases in CD's. C limited fund But under alternative flows by late this year could induce banks to rely appreciably more on sales of CD's to satisfy credit demands. Proposed directive (15) Presented below are four alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive. The first three are couched in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead and are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. The fourth alternative is proposed in the event that the Committee wishes to formulate its instructions in terms of money market conditions and wishes to maintain the conditions now prevailing. Since the last meeting, exchange market conditions have tended to become stable, although the pound and the lira remain subject to particular uncertainties. Therefore, in all alternatives, we propose deleting the specific reference to "the sensitive state of foreign exchange markets" that was inserted at the last meeting, and restoring the previously longstanding reference to international financial markets. Alternative "Monetary Aggregates" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL: and the sensitive state of foreign exchange markets,] the Committee seeks to achieve moderate] bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: SUBSTANTIAL growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. -10Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments and the sensitive in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL; state of foreign exchange markets,] the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments and the sensitve in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL; state of foreign exchange markets,] the Committee seeks to achieve moderate] bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL: MODEST growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. 'Money Market" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments and the sensitive in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL: achieve] markets,] the Committee seeks to [DEL: exchange of foreign state consistent MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: in growth moderate with monetary aggregates] over the period ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 4/16/76 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 35 D S 1974 D M J 1975 S D M 1976 J F J RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios. M A CHART 2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC 4/16/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 305 300 300 280 295 290 1974 1975 D J 1975 F M 1976 CHART 3 4/16/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -540 -520 -500 -480 I ! i I RESERVES I I I l BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39 - 37 -TOTAL - 35 NONBORROWED 33 31 1974 1975 1976 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios. CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PER CENT INTEREST RATES Short-term WEEKLY PERCENT 10 INTEREST RATES WEEKLY AVERAGES F.R. DISCOUNT RATE - 7 - 6 - 9 RATE 1 4 1975 1976 1975 1976 1975 1976 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 1 BANK RESERVES APRIL 16, 1976 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) REQUIRED RESERVES AGGREGATE RESERVES AVAILABLE RSERVES RESERVES AVAILABLE SEASONALLYADJUSTED ASEASONALLY ADJUSTED dFOR PRIVATE FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS Period Total Nonborrowed SA SA NSA NSA Reserves Reserves Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS 32,100 31,849 31,752 131,847) 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. PERCENT 33.170 31,667 31,496 (31,952) 34,245 34,052 34,000 (34,026) 34, 1'7 33,971 33,946 (33,990) 34,005 33,833 33,776 (33,817) 19,732 19,715 19,t59 (19t,99) 12,126 11,915 11,869 (S11,939 2,145 2,203 2,24b ( 2.179) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1975--3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 1976--IST QTR. -1.5 0.4 -5.9 -0.8 1.4 -6.2 -2.8 4.5 -5.4 -0.7 0.5 -5.8 3.4 -3.4 -2.0 - -0.8 -0.8 -3.4 0.1 0.6 -3.9 -1.9 2.7 -3.2 -0.1 -0.1 -3.6 6.2 -2.1 -1.0 -12.2 -0.6 -t.4 ( -8.4 -6.9 -0.9 1.6) ( -9.3 -6.1 -2.0 1.5) -1.5 -1.0 -5.4 2.4) -7.' -21.1 -4.6 ( 7.1) ( 0.3) ( -0.3) -9.0 4.1 QUARTERLY-AV 1975--3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 1976--1ST QTR. MONTHLY 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAR.-APR. ( -4.9 -9.4 -3.7 3.6) ( -10.2 -6.8 -1.8 0.9) ( 0.0) ( -0.5) 1 1 -0.5) 1 1.2) WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS NOTE: 1976--MAR. 3 10 17 24 31 31,970 31,533 31,608 31.699 32,074 31,675 31,016 31,459 31,470 31,963 34,340 33 834 33,843 33,876 34,300 34,256 33,786 33,803 337.98 34,263 33,930 33,731 33,642 33,765 33,899 19,676 19,545 19,555 19,749 19,761 11,884 11,885 11,852 11,839 11,892 2,370 2,300 2,235 2,177 2,226 APR. 7 14 31t621 31,738 31,383 31,692 33t858 33,786 33,834 33,724 33,727 33,603 19,576 19,628 11,914 11,926 2,237 2,048 RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF MAR. 16, RANGE OF -2.0 TO 2.0 PERCENT FOR THE MAR.-APR. PERIOD. IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. 1l76 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC Table 2 MONETARY AGGREGATES APRIL 16, ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY U.S. Broad Credit Govt Total (M1) (M2) Proxy Deposits Total Total Savings Other 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 295.3 296.8 298.4 (300.41 669.0 676.9 681.7 (688.11 514.1 515.9 516.4 (517.8) 452.9 455.5 456.4 (460.4) 373.7 380.1 383.2 (387.7) 164.2 170.0 173.4 (176.7) 209.5 210.1 209.9 (211.0) Other Than CD'S S Sources of Funds 10 9 LEVELS-SBILLIONS 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. PERCENT Nondeposit Time and Savings Deposits Adjusted Narrow Money Supply Period ( 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.1) ( 79.2 75.4 73.1 72.7) ( 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.1) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 3.6 1.9 4.6 6.5 6.4 11.1 -0.8 7.0 1.6 2.6 11.8 4.6 8.9 10.1 16.2 14.5 17.1 31.9 4.9 4.7 4.2 -23.8 19.2 -47.3 7.1 2.5 2.9 10.1 6.1 9.5 1.4 6.0 2.6 4.7 9.1 6.8 12.7 9.1 14.8 18.4 14.7 28.4 8.6 4.9 4.4 -27.5 9.5 -29.3 ( 1.2 6.1 6.5 8.0) ( 10.3 14.2 8.5 11.3) ( -0.7 4.2 1.2 3.3) ( 4.5 6.9 2.4 10.5) ( 17.6 20.6 9.8 14.1) 26.9 42.4 24.0 2.8) ( 10.4 3.4 -1.1 6.3) -53.6 -57.6 -36.6 -6.6) ( 7.3) I 9.9) ( 2.2) 1 6.5) 1 12.0) 23.6) ( 2.6) -21.5) 1975--3RD QTR. 4TH 0TR. 1976--15T OTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1975--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1976-1ST QTR. MONTHLY 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAR.-APR. ( WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLIONS 1976--MAR. APR. 381.7 382.7 73.8 73.0 7.9 8.1 456.1 383.1 73.0 6.3 456.7 457.8 383.7 384.4 73.0 73.4 8.5 8.2 460.0 386.7 73.4 7.2 296.8 299.3 678.5 682.0 514.4 515.7 2.2 2.9 455.5 455.8 17 298.7 681.8 516.7 2.8 24 31 297.3 298.6 681.0 683.0 515.9 515.3 2.8 1.9 300.0 686.6 517.4 2.4 3 10 7 P NOIEI DATA SHOWN IN - I PARENTHESES I ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. h P - PRELIMINARY 1976 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC APRIL 16, 1976 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills & Accept. Period / Open Market Operations Coupon Agency RP's Issues Issues Net 3/ (10) (8) (9) 2,008 5,155 2,458 186 -2,432 98 114 10 15 -2,637 445 -2,537 1,276 521 -205 -130 -1,150 -387 15 1 -94 3 265 280 1,219 3,315 1,165 66 -813 79 339 355 3,597 -3,129 2,567 -1,101 942 1,631 -48 -3 -308 -3,250 137 -76 449 -1,546 960 -1,110 1,932 822 393 Oct. Nov. 147 -608 -709 284 -1 Dec. 1,799 297 -- 1976--Jan. Feb. -1,590 1,205 321 528 240 295 Apr. May Mar. Apr. (11) (7) (4) 1976--Feb. A Target Available reserves 5/ (6) (3) 1975--Sept. Total A In Reserve Categories Available res. 5/ Req. res. against U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (5) (2) (1) Daily Average Reserve Effects 2Open Market A Member Other 4/ Operations Bank Borrowing factors 470 4 11 18 -190 336 820 189 - ---- 25 37 339 3 10 110 -711 --107 17 401 310 24 376 - 31 -147 -- 7 14 21 28 -1,608 -521 -70 - -3,534 -2,969 2,210 -3,536 -2,633 3,031 1,605 -4,051 2,656 -1 -6 5 -1,607 2,767 -1,900 246 -279 172 -249 -1,011 589 -1 4,014 4,389 2,428 92 -3,404 -33 -851 297 -- -3,314 -8,835 -2,907 -9,653 -93 -4,051 -63 -38 588 3,380 144 -50 288 -659 -- 4,115 4,826 429 -7 -91 -112 443 -- 3,143 3,519 3,541 38 -3,727 -159 - 1,142 995 -1,002 -41 1,658p 166 449p --- -7,764 5,064 -9,442 4,543 -4,396 -1,273 -13 38 3,768p 1,399p -61 -146 -580p 310p 1/ Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for March and April reflects 11 auctions. gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. the target adopted at the March 16, 1976 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. P - Preliminary. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC APRIL 16, 1976 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 Within 1-year Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 Total Within 1-year Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over I - 5 5 - 10 10 Total Net Change Outright Holdings Net Total 5/ RP's 6/ -490 7,232 1,280 -468 87 207 320 337 789 579 797 3,284 539 500 434 1,510 167 129 196 1,070 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 46 120 439 191 592 400 1,665 824 253 244 659 460 168 101 318 138 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 -2,093 1,086 -757 1,294 33 218 13 74 1,054 1,135 712 385 625 454 201 234 312 273 171 315 2,024 2,079 1,096 1,006 69 64 58 169 -514 141 285 -2 106 71 61 -63 14 584 -2 747 284 508 3,076 1,060 2,626 53 230 2,392 -1,403 -363 115 554 226 156 1,052 102 288 108 38 535 1,022 1,256 1975--Oct. Nov. Dec. 97 -588 1,784 -43 31 -267 118 156 78 244 71 -709 297 58 -- 141 --- 71 - 14 -- 284 --- 430 99 2,096 15 -2,637 1,219 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. -1,596 1,275 -42 37 40 38 110 366 78 100 63 63 73 59 24 321 528 203 26 76 - 139 149 -- 47 61 -- 27 11 - 240 297 -- -1,030 2,029 23 3,597 -3,129 788 1976--Feb. 4 11 18 25 -189 356 840 53 -40 189 --177 --63 ---59 189 -339 -- --- -- --- ---- -1 336 820 376 -3,534 -2,969 2,210 4,014 Mar. 3 10 17 24 31 150 -688 438 431 -156 -38 - --107 185 -- - --24 --- --107 310 - 76 --- 149 --- 61 -- 11 -- 297 --- 407 -818 711 376 -147 -3,314 -8,835 4,115 3,143 1,142 Apr. 7 14 21 28 -1,593 -501 -70 - -- -- - - -- - - -- 1975--Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. I II III IV 1976--Qtr. I Apr. -- -70 -.. 63 --..- -- -1,678 -7,764 -521 5,064 1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. 2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. 3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. 4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. 5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Tncludes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC APRIL 16, 1976 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Period Bills Coupon Issues 1I\ \ Member Bank Reserve Position Dealer Positions Corporate Bonds Municipal Bonds Borrowin Excess** Reserves (S) Total (6) at FRB** Seasonal Basic Reserve Deficit 8 New York (8) 38 Others (9) 1975--High Low 7,029 1,586 2,845 253 804 -42 609 17 -7,387 -1,757 -11,632 1976--High Low *6,821 4,294 1,684 349 570 -106 153 37 -6,736 -2,367 -12,603 1975--Mar. 3,143 2,521 195 96 -5,732 -10,302 Apr. May June 2,737 4,744 5,201 1,617 1,752 1,351 143 155 201 110 66 227 -4,079 -3,965 -5,821 -10,426 July 1,246 1,204 588 188 195 Sept. 4,231 4,020 5,008 191 259 211 397 -5,546 -3,964 -3,551 - 9,896 - 9,966 - 9,015 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5,766 4,751 4,822 1,480 2,073 1,075 161 251 265 189 60 130 -2,644 -3,812 -2,811 - 9,202 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4,959 5,214 *5,910 1,220 1,051 232 256 254p -3,581 -4,138 -4,726 - 9,746 5,020 5,183 5,961 4,789 828 1,684 903 833 3 10 17 24 31 4,530 5,984 6,107 *6,106 *6,032 581 911 349 *809 *1,184 410 103 201 111 4 01p 7 14 21 28 *6,725 *6,821 *669 *773 13 p 84 1 p Aug. 1976--Feb. 4 11 18 25 Mar. Apr. NOTE: *778 417 123 570 -106 79 81 54p - 7,207 - 8,478 - 9,567 - 9,344 -10,159 -10,418 -10,015 - 9,640 57 51 56 148 -2,367 -5,662 -3,673 -3,720 84 48 40 78 37p -4,415 -6,510 -4,980 -3,681 -4,226 - 9,390 24p 62p -5,942p 6 - ,736p -10, 03p -12,603p - 9,018 -10,889 -10,642 - 9,550 -10,252 - 9,914 -10,095 - 8,824 1 5 Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL **Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II -- FOMC APRIL 16, 1976 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) Treasury Bills Federal Funds (1) Period 90-Day 1-year Short-Term 90-119 Day CD's New Commercial Paper 60-89 Day ssue-NYC 90-119 Day (3) (6) . aA Ut .y Municipal New Recently Bond Issue Offered Buysr (7) (8) 9.71 9.80, 8.89 9.06 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 7.31 5.46 7.75 5.38 1976--High Low 5.12 4.70 5.92 5.35 5.38 4.88 8.88 8.53 1975--Mar. 5.54 5.70 6.03 Apr. May June 5.49 6.40 5.91 5.86 6.03 July Aug. Sept. 6.10 6.14 6.24 6.64 7.16 6.25 7.20 Oct. Nov. Dec. 5.82 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.87 4.77 1976-Feb. 4 11 18 25 4.82 4.73 4.70 4.80 5.00 5.13 .5.21 5.15 Mar. 3 10 17 24 31 4.95 4.86 4.77 4.79 4.84 Apr. 7 14 21 28 4.73 4.77 Daily-Apr. 4.73 4 .75p 5.22 5.55 5.22 5.20 4.84 4.9Q 4.78 Lona-Te r m U.S. Govt.(20- IFNA yr, Constant Auction Natrity) Yield (10) (11) lONMA Guaranteed Securities (12) 8.63 7.63 9.95 8.78 9.10 8.94 8.10 8.50 7.85 9.13 8.94 8.45 8.25 9.35 9.38 7.99 8.82 8.09 9.67 9.63 9.25 9.66 8,36 906 9.65 9.33 8.22 8.04 9.27 9.09 8.48 8.51 8.34 9.43 8.17 8.50 8.57 9.14 6.81 9.41 9.46 9.68 6.48 6.07 6.16 6.45 6.03 5,83 9.45 9.20 9.36 9.43 9.26 9.23 8.35 8.28 9.80 9.80 8.23 9.31 5.44 5.53 5.82 5.03 8.70 8.63 8.62 8.79 8.63 8.01 9.10 9.06 8.61 8.03 7.97 4.88 5.13 8.68 8.62 8.04 8.10 9.07 5.13 8.64 5.13 8.58 8.68 8.67 8.56 8.06 7.96 9,04 5.20 5.25 5.33 5.30 5.13 5.38 5.25 8.72 8.63 8.61 8.53 8.60 8.72 8.64 8,07 5.20 5.10 5.00 5.56 5.37 5.63 5.51 6.63 5.06 5.20 5.13 5.13 5.25 5.13 5.00 4.88 8.43p 9,49 9.57 9.41 9.78 9.05 9.06 8.50 8.54 7.99 7.97 7.89 7.90 8.50 8.4 6p 7.84 7.80p 8.94 8.60 7.93 8.50 8.75 8.97 8.87 8.50 8.56 8.37 8.29 8.30 9.03 7.82 n.a. " NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For colmm 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 8 and 9 are one-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data fo the Monay preceding the and of the statement week. Column 12 is a one-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The EMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auctiaofor short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average notayild to tiveators on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mlotgages carrylg the prevaling ceiling rate. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A APRIL 16, 1976 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Available Period Total Noto Non borrowed 1 2 Support Pvt. Deposits 3 ANNUALLY: Total Loans M2 M1 and Investments 7 6 5 4 (Per cent annual rates of growth) AdlCredit proxy b M3 M4 M5 M6 M? 8 9 10 11 12 11.0 10.6 6.3 10.6 9.0 9.6 11.1 8.9 10.0 11. , 8.4 7.4 -1.1 10.5 10.2 3.9 13.5 9.2 -0.4 6.0 9.2 1.3 4.3 6.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 19.3 5.7 6.1 3.1 3.9 7.8 7.'. 7.1 7.0 9.9 9.0 9.5 10.U 9.4 9.3 6.7 7.1 1973 1974 1975 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES RESERVES 8 6.9 9.6 SEMI-ANNUALLY: END HALF 1974 -1.2 1ST HALF 1975 2ND HALF 1975 0.3 -1.7 -0.6 1.7 0.9 4.5 3.1 5.1 3.4 5.6 2.7 C.9 5.4 5.3 -0.8 7.0 4.6 3.6 3.1 9.7 3.6 1.9 7.7 3.0 7.8 11.3 8.1 9.6 10.6 8.6 11.2 10.1 7.5 10.9 DUARTERLY: -0.1 -2.8 4.5 -0.2 -1.5 0.4 -6.2 -5.4 -5.9 1.6 7.3 4.6 4.E 6.2 6.1 7.6 2ND OTR. 1975 3RD QTR. 1975 4TH QTR. 1975 -1.4 -0.4 -1.9 2.7 -2.2 -0.8 -0.8 3.6 7.4 7.1 2.5 5.6 5.7 t.5 9.4 6.0 !.1 4.1 4.7 10.1 9.2 U.7 10.7 10.1 8.7 9.5 9.5 1ST QTR. -3.9 -3.2 -3.4 2.6 4.0 2.9 5.2 6.3 8.6 8.i 1975--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. -9.0 -1.4 3.5 -11.6 12.2 -0.4 0.0 3.4 -10.1 6.5 -5.8 0.0 -2.6 0.8 14.3 -1.6 -6.2 -4.e 2.2 -8.1 5.4 -0.3 -4.3 0.3 -5.1 6.0 0.3 -0.7 6.0 2.2 1.0 12.7 -3.3 -4.3 5.2 5.9 14.4 0.7 4.9 4.4 3.9 6.2 12.9 5.1 -C.5 4.3 7.7 11.1 4.5 7.3 8.2 8.2 10.1 16.0 10.0 5.9 8.3 '-.7 11.6 7.2 6.t 6.9 7.8 9.4 14.9 11.9 7.0 6.5 11.0 14.6 7.7 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. P -10.2 -8.4 -6.9 -0.9 -4.9 -9.4 -3.7 -0.7 4.2 1.2 '7.u 9.4 7.9 6.8 9.3 8.G 2ND QTR. 1975 3RD OTR. 1975 4TH OTR. 1975 1.3 -o.d IST QTR. 1.4 1976 QUARTERLY-AV: 0.1 0.6 1976 1.4 MONTHLY: -3.2 -3.1 3.9 -6.3 9.7 0.8 -6.8 -1.8 I NOTES: 1/ P - I 4.3 7.9 3.4 5.1 5.1 2.0 6.8 2.0 6.0 10.5 -7.3 5.3 6.1 6.2 0.0 9.4 3.4 11.4 14.2 3.7 5.3 1.6 -0.8 9.4 -2.8 1.2 6.1 6.5 3.2 6.6 4'.0 7.9 7.8 6.6 13.5 10.6 6.0 3.7 10.4 14.3 7.6 6.5 8.9 7.1 ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMEN1S, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR bORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. ONMHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS. Mt, M1, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. PRELIMINARY APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES APRIL 16, 1976 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RESERVESU BANK CREDIT MONEY STOCK MEASURES MEASURES Total borrowed 1 2 Available to Support Pvt. Deposits 3 32,390 34,693 34,539 31,092 33,966 34,409 30,335 32,591 32,231 449.4 495.3 514.4 34,377 34,271 32,337 Period Non Adj. Credit proxy Total Loans and Investments 5 MI M2 M M4 M5 M6 M7 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 634.6 691.9 721.6 270.5 283.1 295.0 571.4 612.4 663.3 919.5 981.6 1091.8 634.9 702.2 746.2 982.9 1071.4 1174.7 1093.7 1191.0 1310.0 1132.0 1232.7 1350.5 499.9 701.7 284.1 623.0 1003.7 712.8 1093.5 1214.9 1259.0 284.9 287.6 291.0 626.7 633.7 642.4 1012.7 1025.3 1040.2 715.1 718.8 726.5 1101.1 1110.4 1124.3 1222.8 1232,4 1247.7 1267.2 1276.3 1290.7 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 MONTHLY: 1975--MAP. APR. MAY JUNE 34,477 34.143 34,490 34,367 34,077 34,263 32,396 32,176 32.320 500.8 501.2 506.5 703.7 706.7 709.7 JULY AUG. SEPT. 34,399 34,310 34,421 34,098 34,099 34,024 32,3)1 32,194 32,201 505.1 503.3 505.5 710.9 714.9 716.1 291.9 293.2 293.6 647.5 650.6 652.9 1051.6 1060.6 1068.1 729.6 729.3 731.9 1133.7 1139.3 1147.2 1260.1 1267.5 1274.4 1302,1 1308,6 1314.6 OCT. NOV. DEC. 34,239 34,515 34,539 3',048 34,455 34.409 32,063 32,224 32,231 508.0 514.1 514.4 719.7 726.0 721.6 293.4 295.7 295.0 655.7 661.6 663.3 1075.6 1086.0 1091.8 736.6 743.4 746.2 1156.5 1167.7 1174.7 1286.1 1301.7 1310.0 1326.2 1342.0 1350.5 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR, 34,245 34,052 34,000 34,167 33.971 33,946 32,100 31.849 31,752 514.1 515.19 516.4 724.8 729.7 734.7 295.3 296.8 298.4 669.0 676.9 681.7 1102.4 1115.6 1125.6 748.2 752.3 754.8 1181.6 1190.9 1198.7 1317.4 1327.6 1336.5 1357.6 1367.9 1376.1 33,775 34,210 33,774 33,724 34,154 33,626 31,626 32 176 31,578 516.4 516.9 515.4 297.3 297.9 295.8 676.7 678.4 676.7 752.5 753.7 751.4 3 10 17 24 31P 34,340 33,834 33,843 33,876 34,300 34,256 33.786 33,803 33,798 34,263 31,970 31,533 31 608 31 699 32,074 514.4 515.7 516.7 515.9 515.3 296.8 299.3 298.7 297.3 298.6 678.5 682.0 681.8 681.0 66b.0 752.3 755.0 754.8 754.0 756.4 7P 33,858 33,834 31,621 517.4 300.0 686.6 760.0 P WEEKLY: 1976--FEB. 11 18 25 MAR. APR. I I . I I I6 ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLL 10 BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.DANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. I/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY NOTES: APPENDIX TABLE 2-A APKIL 1t, COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency Period Demand Dp otal Time Deposits Other Time Than CD's 2 3 Credit Union Shares CD's Savings Bonds 6 7 8 C T Term v't ICommercial Paper USShort Securities 1 Sharesy . 1 Savings Mutual ank and S & L 4 S(Per 5 9 10 31.3 11.9 21.0 39.3 9.1 -3.3 4.4 4.4 cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY : 11.4 9.4 11.8 6.5 5.6 15.7 13.8 12.1 20.2 45.6 41.4 -7.7 20.9 8.7 16.2 15.0 7.7 2ND HALF 1974 9.9 10.6 8.0 ., I 11.5 1ST HALF 1975 2NO HALF 1975 9.4 7.6 7.8 7.2 13.4 9.6 15.2 15.2 20.9 17.6 -12.7 -2.9 6.7 34.0 5.7 -12.1 1975 QIR. R. 1975 QiiR. 1975 9.2 5.6 9.4 6.3 2.6 11.8 14.6 8.9 10.1 17.7 17.4 12.4 20.6 17.0 17.6 -25.4 -23.8 19.2 7.0 19.2 46.6 -9.1 -24.2 0.0 1976 10.9 4.6 16.2 14.1 19.2 -47.3 8.2 -2.0 8.1 1.73 1974 10. SMI-ANNUALLY: QUAI 2ND 3RD 4TH RKLY: 1lT O-TR. QUARTERLY-AV: 9.3 -23.7 -8.7 2ND OTR. 3RD QTR. 4tfl QTR. 1975 1975 1975 8.1 8.5 8.4 4.5 4.7 9.1 12.5 12.7 9.1 16.2 18.2 14.0 21.0 18.6 16.5 -24.5 -27.5 9.5 -2.6 26.4 30.7 1'1 QTR. 1976 9.8 6.8 14.8 13.2 18.3 -29.3 17.0 0.0 12.2 1.7 12.1 13.7 5.1 10.1 1.7 10.0 13.2 4.9 1.1 3.9 3.1 12.0 5.8 -3.8 5.8 13.4 11.9 9.7 10.0 9.9 15.1 18.4 14.0 6.4 6.0 10.4 11.9 7.9 15.2 16.4 17.2 18.9 16.9 17.7 14.9 13.5 12.4 11.0 21.0 20.3 19.9 15.7 19.4 15.2 18.8 14.8 18.3 -30.0 -18.7 -44.8 -14.1 -28.5 -48.2 4.6 27.3 13.4 16.1 -16.6 0.0 -2.1 23.1 53.6 27.6 -23.2 37.4 78.2 19.7 33.6 10.9 -13.5 -24.6 -25.1 -28. -20. -5.9 6.0 0.0 8.1 12.9 11.2 4.5 6.9 2.4 17.6 20.6 9.8 13.4 14.4 13.9 18.0 10.7 28.2 -53.6 -57.6 -36.6 1.8 10.6 12.2 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 MOT HLY: )97h---MAR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DLL. 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. 1/ P - P GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS 20.6 DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF 19ft. APRIL 16, 1976 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currencyd D Cu ncy Period Demand Time Deposits _ Time -Total Other rhn CD' _ Mutual Savings Bank and S & L Credit Union Shares CD's Savings Bnds 6 7 8 i Shares y Short Term Commercial 't S Scurite Secur 9 10 Nondeposit Fu n d s U.S. Gov't Demand 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 61.5 67.8 73.7 209.0 215.3 221.3 364,4 419.1 451.2 300.9 329.3 368.3 323.5 341.6 395.4 17.7 13.3 63.5 89.8 82.9 60.4 63.3 67.3 50.3 56.3 68.1 38.3 41.8 40.4 6.6 8.4 8.4 5.0 3.4 3.0 1975--MAR. 69.4 214.7 428.7 339.0 351.9 29.1 89.8 64.2 57.2 44.0 6.5 2.5 APR. MAY JUNE 69.5 70.2 71.0 215.4 217.4 220.0 430.1 431.2 435.5 341.8 346.1 351.4 356.7 361.8 367.5 29.6 30.1 .0.6 88.4 85.1 84.1 64.5 64.8 65.1 57.2 57.1 58.2 44.4 43.9 43.0 6.7 7.4 7.0 2.7 2.5 3.2 JULY AUG. SEPT. 71.3 71.9 72.0 220.6 221.3 221.6 4jT.6 436.2 438.3 355.5 351.4 359.2 373.3 378.8 383.5 31.0 31.5 31.9 82.1 78.8 79.1 65.6 65.9 66.2 60.8 62.2 61.0 42.1 41.1 40.4 6.8 7.0 7.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 OCT. NOV. DEC. 72.6 73.4 73.7 220.8 222.3 221.3 443.2 447.6 451.2 362.3 365.9 36.3 387.8 391-8 395.4 32.4 32.8 33.3 80.9 81.8 82.9 66.6 67.0 67.3 62.9 67.0 68.1 40.2 40.4 40.4 7.9 8.2 8.4 3.0 3.9 3.0 74.2 75.0 75.7 221.2 221.8 222.8 452.9 455.5 456.4 373.7 380.1 383.2 399.8 404.6 409.3 33.8 34.1 34.9 79.2 75.4 73.1 67.6 67.9 68.3 68.2 68.8 69.5 40.4 40.3 40.2 7.9 8.3 8.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 74.9 75.0 75.1 222.4 222.8 220.7 455.2 455.8 455.7 379.4 380.5 380.9 75.8 75.3 74.8 8.1 8.1 8.0 2.5 2.8 3.0 ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1915 24.7 MONTHLY: 1976--JAN. FEB. MAR. P WE;KLY: 1976--FEB. 11 18 25 1/ P - MAR. 3 10 17 24 31P 75.2 75.7 75.7 75.8 75.8 221.6 223.5 223.0 221.5 222.6 455.5 455.8 456.1 456.7 457.8 381.7 382.7 383.1 383.7 384.4 73.8 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.4 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.2 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 1.9 APR. 7P 76.2 223.8 460.0 386.7 73.4 7.2 2.4 ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE DATA. PRELIMINARY LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) Ml M2 M3 M q M Q I 3.6 7.4 7.3 II 10.1 6.4 III 1.8 5.5 IV 7.8 5.1 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.0 6.2 1974 I 5.3 II M Q 9.2 8.4 10.3 9.9 8.2 9.8 8.5 6.3 7.9 6.1 7.8 9.0 9.9 8.4 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 6.0 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.9 5.3 5.6 6.9 7.4 5.7 6.5 III 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 IV 4.7 4.0 6.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.7 5.0 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 1975 I 1.4 0.6 6.9 5.6 9.0 7.5 II 9.7 7.4 12.5 III 3.6 7.1 6.5 IV 1.9 2.5 6.4 6.1 4.2 4.4 8.3 8.2 11.2 11.1 2.9 11.1 9.5 12.4 11.1 1973 QIV '74-QIV '75 1976 10.5 10.2 14.5 12.6 10.1 10.7 13.3 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in months of the quarters. 9.2 8.9 the final Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. Appendix Table IV Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A 1976 1977 Alt. B Alt. C 5k QII 4-5/8 5 QIII 4-7/8 5% 6 QIV 5k 6 7 QI 6 7 7% Appendix Table V Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Average of 4 weeks April 28 to May 19 ($ million) Alt. A Nonborrowed reserves Member bank borrowing Excess reserves 34,012 Alt. B 33,966 Change from average of previous 5-weok period ($ million) Alt, C 33,88( Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 44 -2 -82 2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for April-May Alt. A Alt, B Alt. C 2.6 1.6 0.0 33 38 7 -14 -9 31 204 186 9 16! -28 -46 -63 -12 -51 2.2 1.4 0.6 Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves 1/ Monetary base- Nonborrowed monetary base 1/ 34,045 34,003 33,964 30 113,316 113,274 113,234 756 714 674 7.9 7.6 7.4 113,237 113,157 770 724 644 8.0 7.7 7.2 113,283 Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks. 

Federal Reserve (1976, April 19). Bluebook. Bluebooks, Federal Reserve. https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760420

@misc{wtfs_bluebook_19760420,
  author = {Federal Reserve},
  title = {Bluebook},
  year = {1976},
  month = {Apr},
  howpublished = {Bluebooks, Federal Reserve},
  url = {https://whenthefedspeaks.com/doc/bluebook_19760420},
  note = {Retrieved via When the Fed Speaks corpus}
}